IEEEStandard1366 Classifying

Reliability(SAIDI,SAIFI,CAIDI)into
Normal,MajorEventand
CatastrophicDays
RichChristie
UniversityofWashington
EE500E/ME523
October11,2012

October 11, 2012 Catastrophic Days 1

 Overview
IEEEStandard1366
MajorEventDays
CatastrophicDays
Heuristic
BoxandWhiskers
RobustEstimation

October 11, 2012 Catastrophic Days 2

 IEEEStandard1366

Needtocompareutilities
Ifregulatorscompareutilities,thecomparisonshould
beasequitableaspossible
Firstissuedin1998,then2001,2003
ProductoftheIEEEDistributionDesignWorking
Group
October11,2012 CatastrophicDays 3
 IEEEStandard1366
Defines12indices
SAIFI,SAIDI,CAIDI,CTAIDI,CAIFI,ASAI,CEMIn,ASIFI,
ASIDI,MAIFI,MAIFIE,CEMSMIn
Defineshowindicesarecalculated



StandardizesComputation
Howmanyoutagesisarecloser event?
Howlongbeforeanoutageissustained?
Whatisacustomer?

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 IEEEStandard1366
Defineshowtoseparatereliabilityintonormal
andmajoreventreliability
MajorEventDays(MEDs)

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 MajorEventDays
Somedays,reliabilityri isawholelotworse
thanotherdays
ri isSAIDI/day,actuallyunreliabilty
Usualcauseissevereweather:hurricanes,
windstorms,tornadoes,earthquakes,ice
storms,rollingblackouts,terroristattacks
TheseareMajorEventDays(MED)
Problem:ExactlywhichdaysareMED?

October 11, 2012 Catastrophic Days 6

 PhenomenologicalMEDs

Designates a catastrophic event which exceeds reasonable design

or operational limits of the electric power system and during which
at least 10% of the customers within an operating area experience
a sustained interruption during a 24 hour period.

In13661998
Reflectedbroadrangeofexistingpractice
Subjective:catastrophic,reasonable
Inequitable(10%criterion)
Noonedesignlimit
Nostandardeventtypes

October 11, 2012 Catastrophic Days 7

 10%Criterion

A B

Same geographic phenomenon (e.g. storm track)

affects more than 10% of B, less than 10% of A.
Should be a major event for both, or neither -
inequitable to larger utility.

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 FrequencyCriteria
Agreeonaveragefrequency ofMEDs,e.g.on
average,3MEDs/year
Quantitative
Equitabletodifferentsizedutilities
Easytounderstand
Translatestoprobabilitytheory,e.g.3
Consistentwithdesigncriteria(withstand1inN
yearevents)

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 ProbabilityofOccurrence

Frequencyofoccurrencef isprobabilityof
occurrencep

f
p
365
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 ReliabilityThresholdTMED

FindthresholdTMED fromprobabilityp and

probabilitydistribution

pdf
p(ri > TMED)
f(ri)

TMED
Daily Reliability ri

MEDsaredayswithreliabilityri >TMED
October 11, 2012 Catastrophic Days 11
 ProbabilityDistribution
3 onlyworksforGaussian(Normal)distribution
ExaminedistributionofdailySAIDI:
40
1000

Bin Count
Bin Count

20

3yrs ofutilitydata
0 0
0 10 20 0 10 20
r, SAIDI/day r, SAIDI/day
(a) (b)

NotNormal!
October 11, 2012 Catastrophic Days 12
 LogNormal
Naturallogsofthesampledataarenormally
distributed
Sampledataitselfisskew

5yearsofdata,anonymousutilityU2

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 LogNormal
Bestfitofdistributionstests
Computationallytractable
Pragmaticallyimportantthatmethodbe
accessibletotypicalutilityengineer
Weaktheoreticalreasonstogowithlog
normal
Loosely,normalprocesswithlowerlimithaslog
normaldistribution

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 LogNormal
NotcompletelyLogNormal noteends

5yearsofdata,anonymousutilityU2

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 FindingTMED
Fiveyearsofdata
Findaverageandstandarddeviationof
distributionofln
n
ofdailySAIDI
lnri
1
n i 1

1 n
ln r 2

n 1 i 1
i

ComputeTMED
TMED exp( 2.5 )
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 FindingTMED
Why2.5(givingthe2.5 Method)?
TheoreticalnumberofMEDsperyear:2.43
RealreasonisthattheWorkingGroup
memberslikedtheresultsusing2.5better
than2or3.
Likedmeans:
DoesnotidentifytoomanyortoofewMEDs
IdentifiesdaysthatoughttobeMEDsasMEDs
BetterMEDconsistencyamongsubdivisions

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 2.5 Method
Methodstillsubjective butlessso
AdoptedinP13662001

AnonymousutilityU29
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 CatastrophicDays
Somedaysarereally,really worsethanother
days catastrophicdays
2.5 removesthesedaysfromnormal
reliability
ButcatastrophicdaysaffectthevalueofTMED
forthenextfiveyears
ThisaffectsthenumberofMEDsidentified
Thisaffectsnormalreliabilityvalues
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 CatastrophicDays

U29hadapossible
catastrophicdayin1998

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 CatastrophicDays
YR NORM NOCAT TMED NOCAT MEDS NOCAT
SAIDI SAIDI TMED MEDS

97 94.47 94.47 3.58 3.58 6 6

98 94.91 94.91 3.53 3.53 14 14
99 109.76 105.58 4.30 3.77 9 10
00 121.87 121.87 4.74 4.17 3 3
01 113.58 108.97 4.73 4.33 2 3
02 134.98 130.36 4.74 4.17 8 9
03 121.65 121.65 5.38 4.75 8 8
04 129.98 129.98 4.90 4.90 2 2

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 CatastrophicDays
Whattodo?
Outlierremovalproblem
Identifyoutliers
OmitthemfromtheTMED calculation
How?
Heuristic(X)
BoxandWhiskers
RobustEstimation

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 Heuristic
WorkbyJimBouford,TRCEngineersLLC
ACatastrophicDayhasSAIDI>X
Xfoundheuristically
10utilitydatasetswithsubjectivecatastrophic
days
VaryX,examineidentifiedcatastrophicdays
X=4.14gavegoodresults
X=4.15orX=4.16didnot
Clearlynotaviablemethod

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 BoxandWhiskers
WorkbyHeidemarie Caswell,PacificPower
UseBoxandWhiskerplottoidentifyoutlying
CatastrophicDays
Q3+3IQR

3rd Quartile(Q3) InterQuartileRangeIQR=Q3 Q1

Median
1st Quartile(Q1)

Q1 3IQR

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 BoxandWhiskers
Testedonadozenutilitydatasets
Subjectiveassessment unsatisfactory
Why?
IQRisarobustestimatorofstandarddeviation,

.
Whiskersat
Given4.14,seemsunlikely4.725wouldbebetter

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 RobustEstimation
Workbyme
Sampleaverageandstandarddeviationare
estimatesofprocessaverageandstandard
deviation
Thereareotherwaystoestimate
Medianestimatesaverage
ln rn / 2
Differenceofquartilevalues(InterQuartileRange,
IQR)estimatesstandarddeviation
IQR ln rn / 4 ln r3n / 4
IQR


1.35
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 RobustEstimation
So,justuserobustestimates and instead
of and

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 RobustEstimation
Example
Sampleset0.5,2.0,3.1,3.9,4.6,5.4,6.1,6.9,8.0,
9.5(artificial,normal)
Mean5.0,robustestimateofmean5.0
Standarddeviation2.76,robustestimate2.81
Withoutlier replacelastsampleby100
Mean14.1,robustestimateofmean5.0
Standarddeviation30.3,robustestimate2.81
Looksprettygoodfortheexample
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 RobustEstimation
Moreaccuratewhenoutliersarepresent
Lessaccuratewhenoutliersarenotpresent
PARAMETER COMPUTED ROBUST
VALUE ESTIMATE
2.98 2.91
2.15 1.98
TMED 10.9 7.59
DatafromU2,whichdidnothaveapotentialcatastrophicday
WorkingGroupmembersdidnotlikethe
routineinaccuracy

October11,2012 CatastrophicDays 29
 Conclusions
2.5 doesaprettygoodjobwithcatastrophic
days.
Utilitiesstillwantamethodtoidentifythem.
Noproposedmethodissubjectively
satisfactory.
Thesearchcontinues.

October11,2012 CatastrophicDays 30