Professional Documents
Culture Documents
International Policy
#4 (10), 2007
Russian Foreign Policy in 2007: Change of Tactics 2
PUBLISHER
Arktika-2007 Showcases Might of Russian
Center for Sea Power in the Arctic 4
Analysis of
Strategies and
Technologies International Cooperation
CAST Director & Publisher Russo-Indian Military-Technical Cooperation:
Ruslan Pukhov New Challenges and New Opportunities 6
Advisory Editor
Konstantin Makienko The Incredible Lightness of Boeing 8
Advisory Editor
Alexey Pokolyavin
Arms Trade
Researcher
Ruslan Aliev Anniversary of Russias First Offset Agreement 10
Researcher Preliminary Results of Russias Arms Trade in 2007 11
Dmitry Vasiliev
Researcher
Polina Temerina Industrial Policy
Editorial Office Russias Defence Industrial Complex in 2007 18
3 Tverskaya-Yamskaya, 24, office 5,
Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, 2007
Printed in Russia # 4, 2007 Moscow Defense Brief
International Policy
functions and capabilities that were lost in the preceding In terms of concrete results for 2007, Moscows efforts
period. An analogous approach has been adopted for foreign at foreign policy diversification are worthy of note. Relations
policy, which reflects not only domestic trends, but also an were pursued actively with a broad range of states: from Latin
understanding of global processes. The majority of Russian America to the Persian Gulf (including the first ever visit by
analysts concur that under conditions of growing global a Russian leader to Saudi Arabia), the Far East and Africa.
anarchy, the role of the state as an actor is key. Nonetheless, the main focus has remained towards the West.
To successfully compete in this arena, the state must be Russias increasing activism on the international stage
consolidated, confident in its internal stability, and focused is related to its relatively stronger position, as well as the
on attaining results. This means that the regulatory role of growing list of problems confronting the leading powers
the state is growing, as highlighted by the pervasive growth (the Middle East for the US, institutional reform for the EU,
of protectionist moods and uncertainty flowing from global securing natural resources to sustain economic growth for
financial instability. China and India).
So until the time is right to design a new set of The development of Russias foreign policy will depend
multilateral rules, it would be wiser to rely on the traditional in large part on external conditions (the global economy
mode of interstate relations and agreements between leading and the ability of the United States and Europe to deal with
world powers on specific issues. Notably, the most successful their respective issues), as well as the stance adopted by the
examples of recent international action were pursued in new head of state. Dependence of Russias behaviour on the
specially tailored formats negotiated by participating states, personal characteristics of its leader is another of the main
like the six on North Korea and the five on Iran. lessons to be drawn from 2007.
Indeed, efforts to work with existing institutions have Nonetheless, the type of behaviour that became the
not produced any results. In the spring, Russia called an norm after Vladimir Putins Munich speech is approaching
OSCE summit to discuss the CFE, but the meeting came to a the limits of its usefulness. Russia has succeeded in drawing
naught. The same has been true for attempts to raise missile attention to its position and compelling others to take it into
defence at the European level and to engage the European account. The task facing the new head of state will necessarily
partners of the US and Russia from NATO and the EU. be somewhat different a more delicate and flexible approach
Unfortunately, these organizations prefer to have the issue will be necessary in order to prevent the formation of
decided on a bilateral level and are not willing to accept even international structures and rules that circumvent Moscows
partial responsibility for strategic questions. interests or counter its strengthening.
LK-60Ya developed by the Central Design Bureau in St. However, Russia is still struggling with the challenge
Petersburg, within the next five years, have been announced. of preserving and maintaining its nuclear submarine fleet
Russia has a projected need to construct three nuclear-power in good condition. The Navy will have to take vigorous
transport icebreakers with variable water draft and seven action to repair and modernize existing ships and begin
diesel transport icebreakers before 2020. The government is the construction of next generation multirole nuclear
likely to find the funds to complete these projects. submarines.
Russias possession of powerful nuclear icebreakers The United States is the only other Arctic state that
capable of navigating reliably at virtually any latitude is a possesses nuclear submarines.
unique resource that greatly exceeds the capabilities of other Russias naval aviation in the North has degraded
Arctic powers. For example, the U.S. Coast Guard has just considerably over the last 15 years. The main deficiency lies in
three diesel icebreakers, of which only the new Healy, with 16 the obsolescence of the few patrol and anti-ship aircraft still
thousand tonnes displacement and 30 thousand horsepower possessed by the Northern Fleet, especially the Il-38M. Russia
is actually functional. Canada has only six diesel icebreakers must take urgent measures to modernize this fleet, which is
and none are capable of navigating the Pole. Moreover, it was nearing 40 years of operation. In addition, the Russian Navy
only in 2007 that the Canadian government short-sightedly must decide on creation of a next generation long-range
reneged on plans to build another three large, armed diesel patrol aircraft, which Russia would need to control the Arctic
icebreakers, in favour of constructing a series of six to eight sector from the air.
Arctic patrol ships that cannot venture far beyond the All of these capabilities provide Russia with the ability to
shoreline. play hardball in the Arctic, and compel its Western partners to
Russias Navy has also preserved its large Northern Fleet, compromise on the division of the Arctic Ocean into sectors.
which includes nuclear submarines capable of operating Such a division of the Arctic would be beneficial to Russia,
under the ice, including up to 20 multirole and strike as it would inevitably receive more territory than the others.
submarines of the Project 197 Akula class, the Project 945 Perhaps, the West could agree to this so long as they got their
Sierra class, Project 949A Oscar II class and the Project 971 share of theirArctic regions. But to achieve this aim, Russia
Akula III class. One of these nuclear submarines reportedly will have to apply a combination of political will, firm and
played an unpublicized role in support of the Arktika-2007 consistent action, and demonstrations of effective sea power
expedition. in the Arctic.
Russo-Indian Military-Technical
Cooperation: New Challenges and New
Opportunities
Konstantin Makienko
O ver the last few months, several new trends have surfaced
in military-technical cooperation (MTC) between
Russia and India. While some of these trends represent new
especially the long-term contracts signed in 2003-2004.Aside
from the Gorshkov, the fall of the dollar is likely also have a
negative impact on the profitability of the 2003 Malaysian
opportunities for Russia on the Indian market, others signal contract for the delivery of 18 Su-30MKM fighters, programs
a rise of new challenges. for the licensed production of the Su-30MKI in India, as well
The critical status of the contract for the modernization as contracts for the delivery of eight divisions of S-300PMU2
and refitting of the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier Surface-to-air-missile (SAM) systems to China.
represents the major negative news for the year. Aside The second public crisis involves claims made by the
from the slippage of the delivery date from 2008 to 2010, at Indian Navy against the quality of the modernization of the Il-
the earliest, Russia has also admitted its inability to meet 38SD anti-ship aircraft, outfitted with the Sea Dragon targeting
contractual obligations on the terms agreed in 2004. This system. Complaints about quality and performance are not
is mainly due to the sharp fall in the value of the dollar and unusual and are not unique to Russo-Indian relations as, for
the rise in operating costs within Russias defence industry. example, the technical problems that plagued the Polish F-16s
Moreover, its likely that the price originally negotiated was indicate. However, in this case, the categorical tone adopted
lower than what Sevmash Shipyard could have reasonably by the Indians suggests that they are genuinely disillusioned
agreed to even at that time. If so, this would be the second with the effectiveness of the Sea Dragon system, developed by
time that Rosoboronexport has signed a contract on terms the Leninets holding company. Moreover, as distinct from the
that are virtually impossible for the industry to meet. The Gorshkov, where the Indian Navy has no substitute, the market
first such contract, for delivery of 38 Il-76MD and Il-78MK for anti-ship defence equipment is highly competitive, and a
military-transport aircraft and refuelling tankers to China, customer can choose from a variety of offerings.
was ultimately cancelled. As for the Gorshkov, the Russian There are at least two reasons why problems with the
party has reportedly asked for an extra 380 million USD for modernization of the Il-38 could have especially negative
completion of the project. consequences for Russia. First, the issues with the Sea
It should be noted that slippage and delays due to Dragon open the door for American offerings to India like
technical problems have virtually become the norm in Russo- the Lockheed Martin P-3 Orion and the Boeing P8A Poseidon
Indian defence trade. For instance, these issues were present patrol aircraft. However, in spite of the recent warming in
at the early stages of the Su-30MKI program as well as during military and military-technical relations between India and
the construction of the Talwar-class frigates. The problems the U.S., concrete examples of American sales on the Indian
occurred in part because the Indian military set very high market remain scarce. Therefore, it would be vexing if a
specifications, considerably raising the technological risk of Russian failure had the consequences of promoting U.S. sales.
each program. However, the Indians also displayed a certain Second, the problems of the Il-38 modernization project
tolerance of the delays in both projects; in any case, they did would torpedo an analogous deal to modernize the Indian
not impose penalties on the Russian producers. Tu-142ME anti-ship aircraft, which in itself is a much more
An attempt to change the financial terms of the interesting platform than the Il-38.
contract would be unprecedented for Russo-Indian defence Notwithstanding the aforementioned difficulties, there
cooperation. If such a demand was indeed made, it suggests are positive developments, which indicate that a number of
that the steep fall in the value of the dollar, the currency successful Russo-Indian projects initiated in the 1990s have
in which most, if not all, Russian arms trade contracts are stimulated further cooperation that should allow Russia to
denominated, is having a serious impact on the ability of the maintain its status as one of Indias main military-technical
Russian defence industrial complex to fulfil export contracts, partners well into the future.
For example, two new, though previously anticipated, financial sustainability because it is set to receive priority
contracts for the delivery of a total of 58 Su-30MKI fighters financing as an international project.
were consummated in 2007. The first of these agreements is In combination with the ongoing development of the Su-
for the delivery of 18 aircraft in exchange for the same number 30MKI project, Indias participation in the PAK-FA indicates
of Su-30K, while the second agreement for the delivery of 40 that Indias heavy fighter development will be oriented
fighters goes beyond the framework agreements reached in towards Russian-origin equipment for the next few decades.
1996, 1998, and 2000 for the deployment of 190 Su-30MKI Of course, such a strong pro-Russian decision on the heavy
to India. Additionally, New Delhi has also signed a contract fighter leaves room for doubt as to Indias intentions with
for the delivery of 347 of T-90S main battle tanks valued at respect to the medium and light fighters; that is, the tender
1,237 million USD. for 126 multi-role aircraft, which has finally been announced
The BrahMos cruise missile project is moving forward at the end of August. One might also expect the stagnating
steadily. Along with the Su-30MKI and the Project 11356 mid-range transport aircraft (MTA) project to pick up speed
(Talwar) frigates, it has a special place in the history of once an intergovernmental agreement is signed.
Russian-Indian military-technical cooperation.The BrahMos Further, the finalization of the purchase of 80 Mi-17
serves in effect as a pilot project for the joint development of a helicopters is expected in the near future. India has already
new weapons system by Russia and India: the administrative, purchased 40 such machines from Russia a few years ago.
legal and financial framework developed for this project A new contract for double the original number testifies
will likely be applied for the creation of a fifth-generation to Russias complete dominance on the Indian market
fighter and a multi-role transport aircraft. The research and for military-transport helicopters as well as the highly
development (R&D) for the BrahMos has been completed and competitive stance of these machines in general.
large-scale production of missile systems for the Indian Navy The development of Russian-Indian military-technical
has begun. With the deployment of land-based systems and relations in 2007 was thus somewhat contradictory. Russias
the creation of air and sea-launch versions, the total number defence-industrial complex has not only defended, but
of orders could reach up to 1000 units. Notably, the success strengthened its positions on the market for heavy fighters,
of the BrahMos project facilitates the promotion of other military-transport aircraft and helicopters, and main battle
Russian air and naval (surface and undersea) platforms. tanks. At the same time, traditional problems like meeting
The most important accomplishment in Russo-Indian deadlines, production quality, and the ability to meet Indian
relations during 2007 was the signature of the long-awaited demands have become more pronounced. The inability
intergovernmental agreement on the joint development of the Russian industry to stay on budget due to currency
of a fifth-generation fighter and the multi-role transport fluctuations and delays in securing materials and parts is
aircraft. After two years the Indian Air Force finally chose a new and worrisome development. These problems give
Sukhois T-50 over MiGs light fighter, which carried a greater advantage to Russias competitors on the Indian market. They
technological risk. Indias participation in development of the could also lead to a relatively new phenomenon, such as direct
advanced tactical frontline fighter (PAK-FA), formalized in competition between the American and Russian producers
an intergovernmental agreement, gives the project greater and exporters of arms and military equipment.
For the intermediaries, the arrangement has been However, today, the future of MBDC appears cloudy.
advantageous because of the ability to make immediate The majority of its projects have been completed, while no
revenue without investment in plant or training. However, new projects for 2008 are in sight. Even the program for the
this structure is less attractive for the employees. Specialists development of the Boeing 787 has almost been finished,
at Boeings head office in Seattle make all of the important and the development of new models is not yet in the works.
technical decisions, leaving mostly routine work orders and Fewer work orders and staff downsizing seem likely for
no autonomy for the engineers based in Moscow. MBDC.
Working for a foreign company was previously The directors of MBDC often point to the growing
considered prestigious and stable in Russia; however, this competition from analogous centres in India and China in
is not necessarily the case today. Moreover, Boeing Russia their discussions with employees. It appears that the MBDC
offers very few opportunities for advancement to Russian business model has reached its natural limit. Established as a
engineers, while wages at Russian enterprises are rising every cost-cutting measure to save on wages in the U.S., the Russian
year. Centre now faces the same pressure from Boeing centres in
As a result, the MBDC has had trouble attracting new third-world locations.
talent. Each new recruiting drive in the recent past has set Moreover, Boeing is a strategic asset of U.S. national
lower requirements for candidates. Previously, they needed to industry, and it will never become a truly multinational
have specialized education, work experience and knowledge company. Its task is to preserve Americas technological
of English. Now, any higher technical education will do. edge, while exploiting the efficiencies offered by a global
Industry insiders estimate that MBDC is losing about twenty economy.
employees per month at present. This means that complex engineering tasks relating to
aerodynamics, choice of design, and front-end engineering
will never be transferred to the Moscow office. Due to the
Prospects fact that MBDCs engineers have mastered all other types of
engineering work, any further expansion of the operation
In retrospect, the MBDC has played a positive role on will be quantitative, rather than qualitative.
the labour market for Russian aviation specialists. Having Thus, it appears that MBDC has reached the peak of its
created 1,500 jobs for aviation engineers, the Centre has development. In light of growing competition from India and
contributed to the stable growth of wages within the China as well as problems in attracting and retaining qualified
profession. Many specialists received quality training and personnel, the business model adopted for the company in
raised their professional qualifications at MBDC. the early 1990s has clearly outlived its usefulness.
5. Problems with a few major contracts arose for Director General stated in mid-2007 that ROE alone delivered
technical and/or political reasons, especially the delivery of ships and naval armaments valued at about 2 billion USD.6
MiG-29 to Algeria and a several agreements with India. Aviation. We have identified the deliveries of aircraft
6. The fall of the dollar has eroded the profitability of valued at 3.28 billion USD in 2007, which is probably likely to
some contracts. ROE has proposed to India that long-term be close to reality.7 Deliveries of 49 Su-30MK fighters account
contracts be converted to Euro.4 for an estimated 2.27 billion USD of this figure, including 24
aircraft to India (as well as eight kits), 12 to Venezuela, 10 to
Malaysia and three to Algeria.8 These deliveries in turn drew
Identified Deliveries an accordingly large scale delivery of air-launched weapons
systems. According to Boris Obnosov, Director General of
Details concerning the export of Russian arms worth Tactical Missiles Corporation, exports from his company
only 5.44 billion USD, or about three quarters of total increased by almost 1.5 times this year.9 Extrapolating from
announced revenues. This level of details is higher than published figures for 2006, this would amount to about 18
last year, when only about 60 percent could be identified. billion roubles for 2007, or 730 million USD.
Consequently, the following analysis is based on the details of Implementation of the contract to deliver three A-50IE
arms transfers as published in open sources, and, therefore, long-range radar detection and observation (DRLO) planes
the nature of the figures presented should be considered equipped with the Israeli Phalcon radar system has begun in
provisional until new and complete official information 2007. The Taganrog Beriev Aviation Scientific and Technical
becomes available. Complex probably handed over the first modernized aircraft
to Israel for outfitting. 10 In addition, repairs and limited
Exports by Type of Arms modernization of the first Tu-142ME anti-ship aircraft for
the Indian Air Force were completed.11 This evidently refers
The structure of deliveries according to the type of to the aircraft equipped with the NK-12MPT engine built
armament in question is quite unusual. While transfers of in Samara. A contract for the delivery of six such engines to
aviation once again played a dominant role at 61 percent, India was signed in 2005.
transfers of land armaments unexpectedly rose to second China and Venezuela were the principal recipients of
place at 21 percent (see Figure 2). This change occurred helicopters in 2007. China received 12 Mi-171 helicopters,12
because of the deliveries of T-90 tanks and Smerch multiple while Venezuela received at least two Mi-35M combat
launch rocket systems.5 helicopters and two Mi-26T2 transport helicopters. 13
The third and fourth spots were taken by air defence Helicopters of the Mi-8/17 family were delivered to
systems and naval armaments (10percent and 8percent, Kazakhstan, Croatia (the first two out of ten Mi-171Sh in the
respectively). However, due to the lack of transparency on order), the UK (two helicopters for special operations in the
export of this type of defence goods, our figures are lower mountain regions of Pakistan)14 and, most likely, Burkina
than reality. For example,Vladimir Pakhomov, ROEs Deputy Faso and Uganda. Repair and modernization work took place
Figure 2. Structure of Identified Deliveries of Russian Arms in 2007 by Type and Destination
Venezuela
16%
Land armaments Algeria
21% 14%
Aviation China
61% 21%
Vietnam
Ships 5%
8% India Other
28% 7%
Source: CAST
in Peru and Hungary. Deliveries of civilian Ka-32 helicopters Judging from previously published schedules for
to South Korea are likely to have continued, while another contract implementation, deliveries of the first Favorit S-
Ka-32 was delivered to Japan for testing. 300PMU2 air defence missile systems to China , which would
Several aircraft engine transfers to China and India account for the bulk of air defence systems exported this year,
took place, including deliveries of the AL-31F and RD-93 are likely to have taken place. Morocco may also have received
to China according to a contract signed in 2005, and the several Tunguska-M1 systems. It is nearly impossible,
licensed production and manufacture of 120 RD-33 engines however, to estimate the implementation of other contracts
in India.15 In addition, India is likely to have received all of the in this sphere, i.e., for the delivery of Tungunska-M1 systems
200 TRDD-50MT engines for its Lakshya target drone. to India and Syria, or the modernization of Egyptian and
On the negative side, the contract with India for the Iranian air defence systems.
modernization of the Il-38 anti-ship aircraft was suspended Naval Armaments. Identified deliveries of naval
due to claims from the Indian party regarding the quality of armaments in 2007 amounted to 510 million USD. But
the work.16 Algeria similarly has complaints regarding the considering the statements made by cited above, this figure
first batch of MiG-29s received in 2007 under the contract is probably significantly understated.
signed in 2006. This will likely affect subsequent delivery Published sources attribute the bulk of naval export
of MiGs and other items that are part of the Algerian this year to the transfer of two Project 12418 Molnia missile
Package.17 Delays affecting the refitting and modernization boats to Vietnam under a contract signed in 200326 that also
of the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier for India18 will likely included the licensed production of an additional 10 vessels
push back the deadlines for the delivery of the associated at Vietnamese shipyards. The two boats are estimated to
MiG-29K and Ka-28 and Ka-31 anti-ship helicopters (in any have cost 200 million USD. India may have received the
case, the delivery of these items was not noted in the press). third Shtil-1 air defence system for its Project 17 frigates.
Finally, in January 2008, the foreign press noted delays in Additionally, Zvezdochka shipyard has probably completed
the implementation of the contract for the development and the modernization of two Project 866EKM diesel submarines
delivery of 180 AL-55I engines for the Indian HJT-36 and for the Algerian navy. However, the schedule for repairs to
HJT-39 trainers. Partly for this reason the Indians are once the same type of diesel submarine for Iran remains known.
again looking at possible purchases of this type of aircraft Finally, the Rubin Central Design Bureau and Fincantieri
from elsewhere (BAE Systems Hawk Mk 132).19 conducted joint design work on the S-1000 submarine,
Land Forces Armaments. Deliveries of arms for the although no further details concerning the contract or its
land forces amounted to 1.3 billion USD in 2007, the highest schedule are known.
showing in several years. However, this figure is subject to a On the negative side, India refused to accept the
high degree of variation, given the difficulty of identifying Sindhuvidjai Project 877EKM diesel submarine that had
the many small transfers of land armaments. been repaired and modernized by Zvezdochka due to an
In addition to the aforementioned transfers of tanks unsuccessful test of the newly installed Club-S cruise missile
and air defence systems, several contracts for modernization system. As a result, the schedule for delivery has experienced
were signed, including for the T-72VS for Syria, the BMP- a setback.27
2VS for Algeria and the BMP-3 for the United Arab Emirates Other deliveries. Additional deliveries included
(UAE).20 Moreover, 120 BTR-80 and 30 modernized BTR-70M contracts on outer space concluded through the mediation of
were reportedly exported.21 Additionally, BTR-80A were also ROE. Two German SAR-Lupe radar reconnaissance satellites
transferred to Kazakhstan22 and possibly to Indonesia. were launched,28 while deliveries of the RD-180 engine for
The second batch of AK-103 assault rifles was delivered American space launchers continued.
to Venezuela, while construction of the factory for the licensed The year also saw transfers of several trainers.
production of the rifle (with ammunition) should also have Aerokosmicheskoe Oborudovanie Corporation transferred
commenced. 23 According to ROE figures, Russia exports trainers to India for the Su-30MKI and to Kazakhstan for
about 200 million USD in small arms annually.24 Finally, the MiG-29.29 In addition, the company signed a statement
deliveries of the Kornet-E anti-tank assault weapon to India of intent with the Indias Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) to
(licensed production), Algeria, Jordan, Eritrea and Oman create a joint venture to train pilots for the Indian Air Force.30
may have taken place. Further, P.E.T. Kronshtadt transferred trainers to Vietnam
Air Defence Systems. Identified deliveries of air defence for their Molnia cutters,31 and to Venezuela for their Mi-17
systems in 2007 amounted to 520 million USD. This probably helicopters.
understates the real amount, because statements by former There was no information published in 2007 regarding
Director General of ROE Sergey Chemezov indicate that the the accomplishments of the independent exporters of spare
export of air defence systems should account for about 10- parts. In all likelihood Sukhoy and Salyut led the pack with
13percent of total ROE deliveries (610-800 million USD).25 their popular Su-27/30 family of fighters and engines.
# 4, 2007 Moscow Defense Brief 13
Preliminary Results of Russias Arms Trade in 2007
Arms Trade
Source: CAST
Russian Technologies appears to be on its way to Defence Minister Anatoly Serdiukov (Chair), Director of the
becoming a large, diversified corporation, consolidating the Federal Service for Military-Technical Relations Mikhail
entire life cycle of industrial goods: from the initial design Dmitriev, Minister of Regional Development Dmitry Kozak,
and testing to deliveries of raw materials, production and Deputy Head of the State Legal Directorate of the Presidential
marketing. The influence of this structure on the Russian Administration Sergey Kommisarov, Minister of EconoDIC
economy could be eventually become comparable to that of Development and Trade Elvira Nabullina, Presidential
Gazprom and Rosneft. Aide Sergey Prikhodko, First Deputy Chair of the Military
The official goals of the company are to facilitate the Industrial Commission Vladislav Putilin, and Minister of
design, production and export of high-technology industrial Industry and Energy Viktor Khristenko.
products and to draw investments to various industrial Sergey Chemezov, former Director General of ROE, was
sectors, including the defence industrial complex. In spite appointed President of Russian Technologies (as well as an ex
of this somewhat vague formulation, the first step has been officio member of the Board). Aleksey Alyoshin and Nikolay
revealed, as preparations for initial public offerings of its Volobuyev, colleagues of Chemezov at ROE, were the first of
subsidiaries by 2012 is underway, with Helicopters of Russia, his new deputies to be appointed, along with Vneshtorgbanks
VSMPO-Avisma and AvtoVAZ as the first candidates for IPOs former deputy chairman Igor Zavyalov, who will deal with
as early as 2009. financial issues. Chemezovs former deputy Anatoly Isaikin
A longer-term strategy is not yet evident. One might was appointed to head ROE, and will also hold the position
suppose that as the assets of its subsidiaries are sold on the of Vice President of Russian Technologies once ROE is
market and private capital comes to play a larger role in the incorporated as a subsidiary joint stock company.
industry, Russian Technologies will transform itself from a Notably, the power to appoint the director general of
management company to a regulator for various industrial ROE, members of its board and audit committee, to make
sectors. Its not for nothing that some have already christened changes to its charter and other critical issues are all explicitly
it a shadow ministry of industry.5 However, as distinct from assigned to the President of Russian Technologies, even
a ministry, Russian Technologies will have a direct interest though such powers flow naturally to the parent company
in the activities of its subsidiaries. While this may assist in over its direct subsidiary. This suggests that Chemezov is
attracting investment and promoting development, it may keen to maintain personal control over ROE.
also lead to conflicts of interest with private capital.
Leaving aside the question of whether the creation of
Russian Technologies was necessary in principle, there are Oboronprom takes on engines
at least three negative aspects regarding the way this task
was accomplished. The most important of Oboronproms new projects is
The first is the low level of transparency within the new oversight of the merger of several Russian engine-building
corporation. The only form of accountability is the audited enterprises into a holding. The sector is to be organized into
annual report. It appears that the report would be of value three integrated structures, with Oboronprom mandated to
only if it were audited by one of the big four international form the largest of the three the United Engine-Building
accounting firms. Otherwise, the independence of the auditor, Corporation from NPO Saturn, the Ufa Engine-Building
especially when auditing the results for a bad year, would Industrial Association, and the Samara and Perm engine-
be questionable. Moreover, as the corporation deals with building clusters.6 Another two independent structures are
state secrets, it will be all too tempting to simply classify any apparently set to be created on the basis of MMPP Salyut
unfavourable developments and hide them from the public. and the engine-building divisions of MiG Corporation.
Secondly, Russian Technologies answers only to the head However, since Manturov announced immediately upon his
of state. The President personally appoints the governing appointment as Deputy Minister that all of the enterprises in
board, including the Chair, as well as the Director General. the sector are interdependent, Oboronprom will likely play a
The risk of business mixing with politics is thus very high, major role in the reform of the entire sector.7
and at the very highest levels of power. However, Oboronproms task is complicated by the
Finally, although incorporated as a non-profit participation of other majority shareholders in key assets of
organization, the corporation is not subject to existing the new holding: Saturn and Ufa, which respectively design
systems of control over non-profit organizations, nor is it and produce the Al-31F, the most popular Russian military
subject to Russias bankruptcy legislation. In essence, Russian engine. The state owns a 37 percent stake in Saturn, while
Technologies is a holding company with a special immunity Oboronprom holds 12 percent, while the Bashkortostan
against normal instruments of state control and regulation. government holds a golden share of the Ufa-based firm.
Meanwhile, it falls to the newly-appointed members Other shareholders are unwilling to merge their assets on
of the governing board to monitor the companys activities: Oboronproms terms and plan to create their own holding
on the base of these two enterprises. At the end of 2007, New holdings for ships, engines, armour and
there was little clarity as to how the situation would be artillery
resolved.
On August 23, Saturn and Ufa indicated that they intend During 2007, President Putin signed decrees on
to create a joint management company for the production of the creation of three new defence holdings: the United
the AL-31FP, the development of Product 117C, the AL-55, Shipbuilding Corporation (OSK) in March, and the Salyut
and terrestrial power generation. A day later, Oboronprom Scientific Industrial Centre for Gas Turbine Manufacturing as
closed a deal to purchase twelve percent of Ufa (as described well as the Uralvagonzavod Scientific Industrial Corporation
above) from JSC United Finances, reputedly linked to Ufa in August.
management, giving rise to rumours of Oboronproms OSK is an open joint-stock company fully owned by
imminent victory. However, in December, Saturn announced the state, incorporated in June. It will include three regional
its purchase of a 20 percent stake in Ufa from that companys sub holdings: a northern one, based on the Severodvinsk
management for a market price of 81 million USD, initiating shipyard, a western one, based on the St. Petersburg and
a merger of the two companies. Oboronprom stated that Kaliningrad shipyards, and a far eastern one. Coordination
the purchase was void because the federal property agency with the privately owned St. Petersburg shipyards (Baltic
(Rosimushchestvo) had allegedly challenged the legality of and Northern), however, has proven to be a challenge,
Ufas privatization. This allegation was immediately refuted while negotiations with their owner, the United Industrial
by Ufa, which argued that Rosimushchestvos challenge was Corporation, have so far been inconclusive. Moreover, it is still
turned down by the courts in late November, therefore, the not clear which entity would transfer the production units
share purchase was legal.8 of the Baltic shipyard to the site of the Northern shipyard, or
Oboronprom has faced fewer problems in Samara. There, how. There have been some indications that Vneshtorgbank
the state owns 60 percent of the Kuznetsov Samara Scientific would provide a 550 million USD loan to the project over six
and Technical Complex (SNTK, the main design bureau of years.10
this regional cluster), and this share will be managed by The formation of OSK is proceeding extremely slowly,
Oboronprom, which has already successfully lobbied for due to the apparent lack of experienced government
676.5 million roubles of state subsidies for wage and tax debts managers.Aleksandr Burutin, whom the government initially
owed by the company. recommended for the job, was appointed First Deputy Chief
However, the situation with the regions production of the General Staff. Yury Yarov, Director of the Northern
units (Motorostroitel and Metallist-Samara), which produce design bureau, replaced him. Directors of the sub holdings
engines for both aircraft and spaced launchers, remains were appointed in November. Alexander Buzakov (Director
unclear, since Roskosmos would also like to have a say in the General of the Sredne-Nevsky shipbuilding plant) was
holdings management. The owners of the Kazan MPO9 (yet appointed to head the western, Vladmir Fomenko (deputy
another production unit for the aircraft engines produced by Director General of Zvezdochka shipyard) the northern,
SNTK) have stated their opposition to Oboronproms plans. and Pavel Popov (Deputy Governor of Primorsky Krai) the
Negotiations have been complicated by the close ties between far eastern. Sergey Naryshkin, Chief of the Government
Kazan MPO and the local authorities, typical of all large Apparatus, was appointed to chair the board of OSK.
industrial enterprises in Tatarstan. The Salyut Scientific Industrial Centre for Gas Turbine
Oboronprom faces no problems with the Perm engine- Manufacturing was incorporated as a Federal State Unitary
building complex (PMK). The state owns 71.6 percent of the Enterprise on the basis of the existing Salyut and Baranov
Perm engine building plant and 55 percent of the Aviadvigatel plants, as the first of the three planned engine-building
design bureau (with inclusion of Vneshtorgbanks share), the holdings.
principal assets of PMK.Aside from the U.S. company Pratt & Finally, the Uralvagonzavod Federal State Unitary
Whitney, which holds a blocking share of each firm, no other Enterprise is being reincorporated as a joint stock company
significant private capital is involved. with full state ownership. The aim is to establish a holding for
Notably, Oboronprom is still negotiating a purchase the development and production of armour and artillery. In
of shares in Motor Sich of Ukraine. Russia has not yet a related development, the Transport Engine Building Design
determined a firm policy whether to localize all helicopter Bureau (KBTM) of Omsk has purchased a majority share in
engine production on its own territory or to continue Omsktransmash at an auction for the opening price of 700
purchases from Ukraine. For its part, Russian Technologies million roubles,a sum that the government had just transferred
is lobbying for the latter. to the design bureau. KBTM is set to become a repair and
In 2007 Oboronprom also created Avtokomponenty to modernization facility for the T-80 tank,incorporated as a joint
produce car parts and Oboronpromstroi to build housing for stock company and folded into Uralvagonzavod. Three billion
enlisted servicemen. roubles are to be invested in the repair and modernization
facility, while the non-core assets of Omsktransmash will be Minister Sergey Ivanov announced in July that the Tashkent
sold off and the company liquidated.11 Chkalov aircraft plant would join UAC.
Rosoboronexport has also been active consolidating The creation of UAC, which should have been completed
the Kurgan and Azarmas light armour manufacturers, and by April 1, 2007, a date the valuation of the corporations assets
is currently negotiating with their owners: Traktorny Zavody performed by Deloitte & Touche in September 2006 was set to
and GAZ.12 Given these efforts, and the large number of expire, is running behind schedule. Ernst & Young have been
export contracts recently signed (a few hundred T-90 tanks commissioned to conduct a new valuation, however, a new
for Algeria and India, a large batch of BMP-3 infantry combat timeline has not yet been set.
vehicles for the Russian armed forces, and a memorandum Finally, the President signed a decree in November
of understanding for the delivery of 415 BMP-3 to Greece), transferring the states shares of 31 enterprises to the
this process is likely to proceed rapidly. Russian Technologies founding capital of the Almaz-Antey industrial concern.
already holds a 25 percent stake in the Motovilikhinsk plant. Almaz-Antey was already the majority shareholder of these
companies, and the state will in most cases retain no more
than a golden share of the individual enterprises. Almaz-
Old holdings: Helicopters of Russia, United Antey itself remains fully owned by the state. This decree
Aircraft Corporation, Almaz-Antey completes the formation of Almaz-Antey concern, which
began in 2002.
The formation of Helicopters of Russia continued in
2007. In May, ROE made an offer to purchase almost 50
percent of the Kazan helicopter plant. However, judging from The State focuses on the development
ROEs website, a deal has not yet been concluded. In any case, of electronics
considering that ROE and Oboronprom jointly hold about 51
percent of the Kazan plant, the state should ultimately be able Concern over Russias electronics industry was apparent
to acquire full ownership of the enterprise. in 2006, when the government adopted a program for the
In July, Oboronprom closed a deal to acquire an development of the industrial base for electronic components
additional 25.1 percent of Mil and now controls 61.4 percent from 2007-2011 as part of the broader federal target program
of the Moscow-based helicopter plant. After an additional to develop the national technological base. However, the
issue of Rosvertol shares, the state, through Rosimushchestvo critical state of the industry required a larger and more
and Oboronprom, gained control of 25.01 percent of the focussed effort. As a result, in 2007, the government has
firm. In addition, the President issued a degree to fold the approved an independent federal target program for 2008-
Kumertau aircraft manufacturing plant and 50 percent plus 2015 focused on electronics.
one share of the Progress aviation plant into Helicopters The new program fits with the overall strategy for the
of Russia. Oboronprom gained control of the production development of the electronics industry to 2025, developed
engineering facilities for the Kamov in 2006. by the Ministry of Industry and Energy and approved by the
Yuri Ivanov, an advisor to the Director General of government in 2007.According to that strategy, by 2015, a total
Oboronprom, was appointed the first Director General of of 182.1 billion roubles are set to be invested in the sector, of
Helicopters of Russia in April 2007. He was, however, replaced which 112.7 billion will come from extra budgetary sources.
in November by Andrey Shibitov, the acting Director of Mil. From 2016 to 2025, additional 185-215 billion roubles will be
Ivanov, for his part, was appointed his Deputy for Industrial invested into the sector, including some 115-135 from extra
Policy. budgetary sources.15
Helicopters of Russia also set up a production line for Intended to restore a basic level to the electronics
the licensed assembly of Agusta Westland A119 and AW139 industry in Russia, the federal target program also supports
helicopters with take-off weights of 2-3 and 6.5 tonnes the development of conditions for manufacturing of devices,
respectively. Negotiations for the joint development and which use GLONASS and GPS. 16 The first stage will focus
production of a new 4.5 tonne helicopter were also held with on the development of microelectronics, benefiting the
the Italian company.13 Zelenograd Micron plant owned by Sitronics and Angstrem.
Oboronprom estimates the 2007 sales receipts of Oboronproms latest initiative is noteworthy in this
Helicopters of Russia at 1.1 billion USD. Judging from plans context. In September 2006, the company announced that
made public in September, this is a result of the delivery of it would create a specialized radio electronic holding. 17 In
130 Mi and 20 Kamov helicopters.14 2006, after his appointment as Deputy Minister, Manturov
In 2007, the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) confirmed that discussions as to which Federal State Unitary
concentrated on integrating MiG and the Kazan Aircraft Enterprises and private firms would be part of this holding
Industrial Association. In addition, First Deputy Prime were underway.
# 4, 2007 Moscow Defense Brief 21
Russias Defence Industrial Complex in 2007
Industrial Policy
1 Unless otherwise indicated, references for the events summarized in this article can be found in prior issues of
MDB published in 2007.
2 Formally, Rosoboronexport owns just 31.13 per cent of Oboronprom, and another 51.01 per cent is owned by
the federal property agency Rosimushchestvo.
3 A. Nikolsky. Serdiukov uskoril rotatskii, Vedomosti, 18.09.2007.
4 While formally the right to export armaments remains with ROE (the state corporation is given only marketing
functions) the dependence of ROE on its parent structure makes this a moot issue.
5 E. Kiseleva. Korporativnoe dvizhenie, Kommersant, 04.09.2007.
6 The Samara enterprises were initially expected to form their own separate structure and thus there would have
been four holdings.
7 Interview with Deputy Minister of Industry Denis Manturov, Kommersant, 17.09.2007.
8 Oboronprom and UMPO press release, 25.12.2007.
9 The real owners are hidden behind nominal shareholders. The government of the Republic of Tatarstan owns
a golden share.
10 E. Kisileva, A. Gritskova, A. Pushkarskaya. Baltiyskiy zavod poshol pod snos, Kommersant, 14.08.2007.
11 A. Shestakov, Tankoviy zavod postaviat na relsy, Kommersant Sibir, 28.12.2007.
12 A. Gritskova, D. Belikov. Gosposrednik peresazhivaetsia na BMP, Kommersant, 29.11.2007.
13 A. Gritskova, K. Lantratov, Italianskim vertoletam nashals ploshchadka v Rossii, Kommersant, 22.06.2007.
14 I. Rusanova, Okhotnik I sobiratel, SmartMoney, 03.09.2007.
15 Elektronaya strana. Official site of Minpromenergo [minprom.gov.ru] 11.09.2007.
16 Osnovnye itogi deiatelnost federalnykh organov ispolnitelnoi vlasti v 2007 g. I zadachi na 2008 g.
[www.government.ru] 29.12.2007.
17 Kommersant Yug, 15.08.2006.
18 Interview with Deputy Minister of Industry Denis Manturov, Kommersant, 17.09.2007.
China AL-31FN jet engines 100 2008-2009 320 For Chinese J-10 (Super-10)
fighters
India Su-30MKI fighters 18 2007 750 Total contract value is 750 mln
USD. Russia will buy out 18 used
Indian Su-30K fighters (this will
take 250 mln USD)
Su-30MKI kits 40 2008-2010 1,600
RD-33 (series 3) 120 2007-2010 300 For MiG-29 fighters upgrade
jet engine license
production
T-90S main battle 347 2008-2011 1,237
tanks
Smerch MLRS 14 2008-? 200
systems
Indonesia Su-27SKM / 30MK2 3/3 2008-2010 335
fighters
Mi-17/ Mi-35 10 / 3 n/a 105 The contract was signed in
helicopters September 2007 as part of an
agreement, according to which
Russia would provide Indonesia
with 1 bln USD for purchase of
Russian arms
Algeria Ship repair program 1 / 1 2009 200
(Project 1234E /
1159T)
Kazakhstan MiG-31 interceptors 10 2008 60
repair and upgrade
program
Syria Buk-M1-2 SAM n/a n/a 200
systems
Sources: Russian press; CAST estimates.
China Mi-171 24 2006 2006-2007 100 12 complete Contract value 200 mln USD. Helicopters
helicopters are in civilian modification
AL-31F jet 180 2005 2006-2007 430 140 complete Contract value 550 mln USD. For Chinese
engines Su-27/30 fighters previously bought in
Russia
RD-93 jet engines 100 2005 2006-2008 71,4 30 60 Contract value 238 mln USD. For Chinese
JF-17 Thunder (FC-1) fighters. MRO center
for these engines will be built in China
during 2006-2011
AL-31 jet engines 2005 2005-2008 33.3 Contract value 100 mln USD. This three-
spare parts year agreement was signed in summer
2005
S-300PMU2 8 2004 2007-2008 490 4 4 Contract value 980 mln USD
Favorit SAM
systems
India Su-30MKI kits 140 2000 2004-2012 190 8 39 Contract value 980 mln USD. Russia to
(2014) complete delivery of kits by 2012, India to
complete assembly by 2014
Su-30MKI 18 2007 2007-2008 666 16 16 Contract value 750 mln USD. Russia will
fighters buy out 18 used Indian Su-30K fighters
(this will take 250 mln USD)
Su-30MKI 4 2007 2007 4 complete
simulators
Conversion of 3 2003 2007-2009 50 1 1 Contract for delivery of AWACS airplanes
Beriev A-50 is signed between India and Israel. Russian
AWACS platform firms are acting as Israeli subcontractors
for installing IAI and are tasked with conversion of three A50
Phalcon radar AWACS platforms to install Phalcon radars.
Contract value 1 bln USD, Russian firms
will receive about 150 mln USD
NK-12MPT jet 6 2005 2007 n/a 6 complete For Tu-142ME long-range antisubmarine
engines planes
RD-33 (series 3) 120 2007 2007-2010 62,5 25 25 Contract value 300 mln USD. For MiG-29
jet engine license fighters upgrade
production
Smerch MLRS 38 2005 2007-2008 225 19 19 Contract value 450 mln USD
systems
BrahMos antiship 1 batt. 2005 2007 135 1 batt. complete Value is estimated based on Russian share
missiles in BrahMos Aerospace joint-venture
49.5%. Total contract value is 275 mln
USD.
Victor Dmitriev is an advisor at the Federal Service for Military and Technical Cooperation of Russia. He has been working
in arms trade field since 1972. Since the middle 1990s he took significant activity in creating and developing a new unit
responsible for the offset deals in state arms export company Rosvooruzheniye. This kind of deal first appeared with signing
a contract to deliver MiG-29 fighters to Malaysia, when the Russian side successfully fulfiled the obligations to establish the
School of Aerospace Engineering at the Malaysia University of Science (Universiti Sains Malaysia).
Fyodor Lukyanov is Editor-in-Chief of the Russia in Global Affairs journal, published in Russian and English with participation
of Foreign Affairs, and an international columnist with the Kommersant daily, Vedomosti, The Moscow Times and Gazeta.ru
online source; leading national radio stations and TV channels. Fyodor Lykyanov graduated from Moscow State University 1991
as a Germanist. He worked as a correspondent, commentator and editor for many Russia media. Member of the Presidium of the
Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, an influential independent organization providing foreign policy expertise.
Konstantin Makienko. Graduated from the Oriental Department at the Moscow State Institute for International Relations
in 1995 and the French-Russian Masters School of Political Science and International Relations in 1996. Head of a project on
conventional armaments at the Center for Policy Studies in Russia (PIR-Center), 19961997. Since September 1997, Deputy
Director of CAST. Author of numerous articles on Russias military-technical cooperation with other countries.