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IGD 2016
THE
INTRODUCTION
FRESH FOCUS
The referendum is over and UK voters have chosen to exit the European Union (EU), by
52% to 48%. Turnout in the referendum was 72%.
Business impacts, in the UK and Europe, will be profound. The UK has been a member
of the EU since 1973. Current business structures and processes have been shaped by
decades of membership.
This applies to the grocery industry in particular a key objective of the EU since its
earliest days was the provision of abundant, sustainable food supplies.
Development of EU policy has therefore created numerous legal overlaps with the
grocery industry. As the UK begins to extricate itself from the EU, the grocery industry
will be at the forefront of change.
Some key issues have been identified; for each, IGD has provided some discussion and
two scenarios, covering a range of possible outcomes.
@RetailAnalysis
This insight paper was prepared by
James Walton, Chief Economist
IGD 2016
THE
WHYFRESH
IT MATTERS
FOCUS FOR GROCERY BUSINESSES
All goods,
imports, 20152 410.9bn 223.0bn UK exit from the EU will disrupt long-
standing business arrangements
IGD 2016
THE
SOMEFRESH
EU INTERFACES
FOCUS WITH THE GROCERY SUPPLY CHAIN
IGD 2016
THE
GENERAL
FRESHECONOMIC
FOCUS IMPACTS SOME CONSIDERATIONS
(1) Currency movements also affect the cost of borrowing IGD 2016
THE
GENERAL
FRESHECONOMIC
FOCUS IMPACTS POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
Worse for companies
Brexit outcomes
Better for companies
Barriers to immigration reappear Demographic trends remain in place
population and demand growth slow population and demand go on growing
Interest rates rise and house prices fall Loose monetary policy continues - asset
markedly prices are supported, esp housing
The City declines, banking activity Low interest rates - public and private
migrates to EU hitting GDP and taxes debt remain bearable
IGD 2016
THE
FOODFRESH
POLICY
FOCUS
SOME CONSIDERATIONS
Worse for farming
Brexit outcomes
Better for farming
EU farming subsidies end and are not EU farming subsidies are replaced
fully replaced
The new UK system of subsidies is more
Farming undergoes consolidation and flexible and precise
some expertise is lost
There is some structural shift in UK
The range of goods produced by UK farming, but this is gradual
farmers contracts patterns of import
and export shift UK farming becomes increasingly
efficient and entrepreneurial
Without subsidies, farmers are forced to
focus exclusively on production, not Sustainability rules remain in-place,
sustainability with only gradual change
IGD 2016
THE
LABOUR
FRESH
MOVEMENT
FOCUS SOME CONSIDERATIONS
3,000 6
2008
2010
2012
2014
EU nationals, n (lhs) Non-EU nationals, n (lhs)
EU nationals, % (rhs) Non-EU nationals, % (rhs)
(1) Source: Labour Force Survey and UK Labour Market, ONS, June 2016, data is for Q4
IGD 2016
THE
LABOUR
FRESH
MOVEMENT
FOCUS POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
Worse for companies
Brexit outcomes
Better for companies
IGD 2016
THE
LAWSFRESH
& REGULATIONS
FOCUS SOME CONSIDERATIONS
Worse for companies
Brexit outcomes
Better for companies
On exit from the EU, the UK government Exit from the EU is followed by rapid
reviews laws and regulations review of UK laws and regulations
This takes longer than expected and few Spurious laws are either discarded or
opportunities for reform are identified drastically simplified
Given the scale of UK trade with the EU, Businesses benefit from lower costs and
EU regulatory standards are retained in simpler operation, esp small businesses
many areas
UK goods and services enjoy an edge
Most new EU regulations are adopted in over competitors, at home and in export
order to maintain trade markets
IGD 2016
THE
TERMS
FRESH
OF TRADE
FOCUS SOME CONSIDERATIONS
IGD 2016
THE
TERMS
FRESH
OF TRADE
FOCUS POSSIBLE END GAMES
Best
case Post-exit trade Example Notes
scenario
Join EEA Norway This would allow free movement of goods, services, people and
capital ... with exceptions
Because EEA members are not part of the CFP or CAP, trade in food is
excluded from free trade
In this scenario the UK would continue to comply with some EU rules
and also continue to make some financial contributions
Join EFTA, form bilateral Switzerland EFTA was previously larger, but has gradually shrunk as members
agreement with EU including the UK have left for EU membership
Form customs union with the EU Turkey Turkey currently has this status, but critically movement of
services and agricultural goods are excluded
Form trade agreement with the EU Canada This would probably need extensive negotiation and all 27 remaining
EU nations would need to approve terms
The EU may be reluctant to agree free trade in goods without also
having free movement of people, capital etc
No special trade arrangement with USA Tariffs are allowed under WTO rules, although these are subject to an
the EU upper limit
WTO default arrangements would Tariffs could impact UK exports to the EU and the UK government
apply could retaliate by applying a tariff to imports
This approach could mean opportunities for UK businesses, but it is
likely to undermine wealth in the long-term
IGD 2016
THE
TERMS
FRESH
OF TRADE
FOCUS POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
Worse for companies
Brexit outcomes
Better for companies
IGD 2016
THE
DISCUSSION
FRESH FOCUS
POINTS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
1 Which of the issues identified in this paper is likely to have the greatest impact
on business operations and performance? Can these impacts be mitigated?
2 How will the vote to exit the EU affect likely business performance? Is it time to
begin developing new forecasts and objectives?
3 What impact will the vote to leave the EU have on your employees, especially
those from the EU? What management support will they need?
4 What impact will the vote to leave the EU have on your investors and other
stakeholders? Will they need reassurance?
5 How can your business support the UKs negotiation team? Do you have any
insight or expertise to contribute?
IGD 2016