MATH& 146

Lesson 2
Appendix A.2
Conditional Probability

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Multiplication Rule (Independent)

Two events are independent if the outcome of

one does not affect the probability of the other
event.
Consider two independent events A and B with
individual probabilities P(A) and P(B). The
probability that A and B occur together is

P A AND B P A P B

Note: This formula only works for independent

events.
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 Example 1
Suppose you toss three coins. What is the
probability of getting three heads?

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 Example 2
About 9% of people are left-handed. Suppose 2
people are selected at random from the U.S.
population. Because the sample size of 2 is very small
relative to the population, it is reasonable to assume
these two people are independent.
a) What is the probability that both are left-handed?

b) What is the probability that at least one is right-

handed?

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 Conditional Probability
In order to see how marital status compares
among different educational levels, 665 adults
were randomly surveyed, with the results given
below. ("Single" means never married.)

Educational Level Single Married Divorced Widow/Widower Total

Less HS 17 70 10 28 125
High school 68 240 59 30 397
College or higher 27 98 15 3 143
Total 112 408 84 61 665
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 Conditional Probability
Suppose we want to know the probability that a
college-educated person is married. In this case,
we would be assuming that the person is college-
educated.

Educational Level Single Married Divorced Widow/Widower Total

Less HS 17 70 10 28 125
High school 68 240 59 30 397
College or higher 27 98 15 3 143
Total 112 408 84 61 665
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 Conditional Probability
We are not saying, "Choose someone from the
whole collection."
We are saying, "Just focus on the people with the
college degrees. What proportion of those people
are married?"

Educational Level Single Married Divorced Widow/Widower Total

Less HS 17 70 10 28 125
High school 68 240 59 30 397
College or higher 27 98 15 3 143
Total 112 408 84 61 665
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 Conditional Probability
Probabilities such as these, where we focus on
just one group and imagine taking a random
sample from that group alone, are called
conditional probabilities.

Educational Level Single Married Divorced Widow/Widower Total

Less HS 17 70 10 28 125
High school 68 240 59 30 397
College or higher 27 98 15 3 143
Total 112 408 84 61 665
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 Example 3
a) What is the probability that someone with a
college education is single?

b) What is the probability that someone without a

college education is single?

Educational Level Single Married Divorced Widow/Widower Total

Less HS 17 70 10 28 125
High school 68 240 59 30 397
College or higher 27 98 15 3 143
Total 112 408 84 61 665
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 Given That
Often, conditional probabilities are worded with the
phrase given that, as in "Find the probability that
a randomly selected person is married given that
the person has a college degree."

(You might also see it phrased as: "Find the

probability that a randomly selected person with a
college degree is married." The latter phrasing is
more subtle, because it implies that we're
supposed to assume the selected person has a
college degree.) 10
 Notation
The mathematical notation for a conditional
probability might seem a little unusual. We write

P(person is married | person has college degree)

The vertical bar inside the probability notation can

be read as "given that." The sentence reads, "The
probability that the person is married, given that
we know this person has a college degree."

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 Notation
In the study of conditional probabilities, P(B | A)
means to find the probability that event B occurs,
but to restrict your consideration to those
outcomes of B that occur within event A.

It means "the probability of B occurring, given that

event A has already occurred."

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 Conditional Probability Rule
The probability that event B will occur, given than
event A has already occurred, is given by

P A AND B
P B A
P A

Note: The conditional probability formula is given

here as motivation for the General Multiplication
Rule. Most questions in this class can be done
intuitively and without the formula.

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 Example 4
Suppose 80% of people like peanut butter, 89%
like jelly, and 78% like both. Given that a randomly
sampled person likes peanut butter, what's the
probability that the person also likes jelly?

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 Example 5
An urn contains three identical
red and four identical white balls.
Two balls are randomly drawn
one after the other without
replacement.
a) What is the probability that
the first ball is red?

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 Example 5 continued
b) What is the probability that
the second ball is red given
that the first ball is red?

c) What is the probability that

the second ball is red given
that the first ball is white?

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 General Multiplication Rule
The probability that events A and B can occur
together is given by

P A AND B P A P B A

That is, the probability of both events happening is

the probability of one event times the conditional
probability of the other.

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 Example 6
The game of BINGO involves drawing labeled
balls from a bin at random, without replacement.
There are 75 balls, 15 for each of the letters B, I,
N, G, and O. What is the probability of drawing
two B balls in the first two selections?

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 Example 7
A bag contains 10 red marbles, 8 blue marbles,
and 12 green marbles. Four marbles are drawn
without replacement. What is the probability that
a) all four marbles are blue?

b) none of the marbles are blue?

c) at least one of the four marbles is blue?

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 Example 8
After an introductory statistics course, 80% of students
can successfully construct box plots. Of those who
can construct box plots, 86% passed, while only 65%
of those students who could not construct box plots
passed.
What is the probability that a randomly chosen student
is able to construct a box plot if it is known that she
passed?

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 Example 9
About 30% of human twins are identical, and the rest
are fraternal. Identical twins are necessarily the same
sex half are males and the other half are females.
One-quarter of fraternal twins are both male, one-
quarter both female, and one-half are mixes: one
male, one female.
You have just become a parent of twins and are told
they are both girls. Given this information, what is the
probability that they are identical?

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 Example 10
Swaziland has the highest HIV prevalence in the
world: 25.9% of this country's population is infected
with HIV. The ELISA test is one of the first and most
accurate tests for HIV. For those who carry HIV, the
ELISA test is 99.7% accurate. For those who do not
carry HIV, the test is 92.6% accurate.
If an individual from Swaziland has tested positive,
what is the probability that he carries HIV?

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Smallpox in Boston, 1721
Below are the results from a sample of 6,224
individuals from the year 1721 who were exposed
to smallpox in Boston. Doctors at the time
believed that inoculation, which involves exposing
a person to the disease in a controlled form, could
reduce the likelihood of death.
inoculated
yes no Total
lived 238 5136 5374
result
died 6 844 850
Total 244 5980 6224 23
Smallpox in Boston, 1721
Each case represents one person with two
variables: inoculated and result. The variable
inoculated takes two levels: yes or no, indicating
whether the person was inoculated or not. The
variable result has outcomes lived or died from
smallpox.
inoculated
yes no Total
lived 238 5136 5374
result
died 6 844 850
Total 244 5980 6224 24
 Example 11
Write out, in formal notation, the probability a
randomly selected person who was not inoculated
died from smallpox, and find this probability.

inoculated
yes no Total
lived 238 5136 5374
result
died 6 844 850
Total 244 5980 6224 25
 Example 12
Find the probability a randomly selected person
who was inoculated died from smallpox, and
compare this answer to the answer in the previous
example.

inoculated
yes no Total
lived 238 5136 5374
result
died 6 844 850
Total 244 5980 6224 26
 Example 13
It is important to note that the people of this study self-
selected whether or not to be inoculated, which means
that these differences in death rates may have come
from other hidden factors (called confounding
variables).
What do your think are some of these potential factors
that might have influenced whether someone lived or
died and also affect whether that person was
inoculated?

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