March 28, 2016

PHILIPPINES: Drought in Mindanao Causes Corn Production Decline

Severe to extreme drought conditions are widespread throughout the prime corn growing areas on the island of
Mindanao in the southern Philippines. The dryness is the result of a strong El Nio weather pattern that suppressed
rainfall over a wide swath of southeastern Asia during 2015 and early 2016. Mindanao is the countrys largest corn
producer, averaging about 3.7 million tons or 50 percent of total national production.

Rainfed corn production is concentrated in the central and southern provinces, and is particularly vulnerable to
periodic drought. Rainfall over the island was deficient from November 2015 through February 2016, coinciding with
the second and third of three annual corn crops. The second and third corn crops are typically sown during the latter
part of the summer rainy season from August through November and harvested from December through March. Corn
production averages approximately 1.3 million tons during the second and third seasons. Significant rainfall deficits
this year caused moisture stress to increase through the late vegetative and reproductive growth phases of the 2015/16
corn crop, reducing yields and cavvusing an earlier than normal harvest.
Total rainfall averaged less than 500 millimeters or between 5 and 50 percent of normal throughout most of Mindanao
during the second and third corn growing seasons. The drought severity was especially high in the southwestern
provinces making up the region of Soccsksargen (South Cotabato, Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, Sarangani, and General
Santos City). Corn output in Soccsksargen typically totals almost 700,000 tons during the second and third crop
seasons, or nearly 54 percent of the island's total crop. Satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index data
(NDVI) from the NASA MODIS satellite indicates that crop vigor is much lower than normal, and that the overall
yield potential of crops grown this season is well below normal. The NDVI also confirm that the Soccsksargen and
Northern Mindanao regions are expected to be the worst-hit areas.
Drought in Mindanao is expected to cause moderate declines in total corn production during the current USDA
2015/16 marketing year (July 2015 through June 2016). USDA forecasts 2015/16 corn production in the Philippines
at 7.5 million tons, down 0.3 million metric tons from last month and down 2.2 percent from last year. Total corn
area is estimated at 2.6 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 1.5 percent from last year. Yield is
forecast at 2.88 tons per hectare, down 3.8 percent from last month and down 3.7 percent from last year.

Agricultural lands and crop production in the Philippines are heavily concentrated on the northern island of Luzon
and the southern island of Mindanao. Mindanao is the second largest agricultural region in the Philippines, coming
close behind the northern island of Luzon in total crop acreage and production of major food grains. Mindanao
produces on average 25 percent of the total national rice crop as well as nearly 50 percent of the national corn crop. It
is by far the largest corn producing area in the country, accounting for roughly 3.7 million tons of output each year.
By comparison, milled rice production in Mindanao typically amounts to approximately 2.6 million tons. The rainy
season occurs during the months of Jul through December during Southeast Asias monsoon season. The main season
corn and rice production occurs at that time. Dry season production, from January through June, is about 30 to 50
percent lower.

Farmers in the Philippines usually plant two rice and corn crops each year, corresponding to the wet and dry seasons.
However, in some regions such as Mindanao, farmers attempt to cultivate a third corn crop if weather permits. The
second and third crops are usually sown late in the wet season, to take advantage of good moisture during the first 2
to 3 months of the corn life cycle. This year, rainfall from November 2015 through February 2016 was below normal.
The USDA 2015/16 marketing year for corn in the Philippines runs from July 2015 through June 2016, which
encompasses the wet-season crop followed by the dry-season crop and the potential third-season crop. Corn
production in Mindanao is roughly twice as high during the July to December wet season (the first half of the USDA
marketing year).

Corn is a primarily rainfed crop which is cultivated on both upland plains and sloping hillsides in Mindanao, with
most farmers sowing improved open pollinated varieties and hybrids. The average farm size is quite small at less than
1 hectare, and the majority of the crop (80 to 90 percent) is sold soon after harvest. Corn is typically the main food
grain and feed crop cultivated, with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) reporting
that farmers on Mindanao typically allocate between 63 to 85 percent of total cultivated area to the crop. The
remainder of their agricultural land is devoted to vegetables, rice, peanut, cotton, and sugarcane. Owing to generally
low rainfall and severe drought in many of Mindanaos primary corn growing areas in 2016, corn production
prospects are expected to decline relative to both last year and the 5-year average.
This report has been published by the Office of Global Analysis (OGA), International Production Assessment
Division (IPAD). Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are
available on IPAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online.

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS SEMINAR SERIES SUSTAINABLE CORN

PRODUCTION IN THE PHILIPPINES

During the last four decades, marked developments were made in terms of the provision of various corn seed technologies in the Philippines.
The government, research institutions and the private sector served as competing and cooperating entities in providing the best package of
seed technologies to farmers. However, in order to evaluate the relevance of these introduced technologies, it is important to examine the
productivity and sustainability trends of the corn industry through time. Has there been improvement in corn productivity due to conventional
plant breeding (e.g. hybridization) and biotechnology (e.g. genetic engineering)? Has there been improvement in resource use efficiency in
terms of land use, fertilizer application, energy, labor and farm chemicals? These are some of the issues that this paper tried to evaluate. The
major objective of the study was to analyze corn productivity and resource use efficiency trends through time. More specifically, the paper:
assessed the productivity and resource use efficiency of corn and corresponding determinants during the last four decades; evaluated the
magnitude and sources of productivity and resource use efficiency in corn; and made policy recommendations based on the results. The
basic hypothesis raised by this paper was: Corn productivity and resource use efficiency improvements through time are driven by recent
technology developments (e.g. hybridization and genetic engineering). To test this hypothesis, the paper proceeded with a trend analysis
using secondary data. This was complemented by regression analysis of primary and secondary data sources. There were five indicators of
resource use efficiency included in this study. These indicators are land use efficiency, fertilizer use efficiency, human labor use efficiency,
animal-machine labor use efficiency and farm chemicals use efficiency. To add robustness in the assessment of resource use efficiency of
corn through time, three regression productivity models were estimated using econometric procedures. These models include two production
functions for total corn and yellow using time series secondary data, and a yellow corn production function using pooled primary data. is a
senior policy researcher and an international consulting agricultural economist. He finished his B.S. Education, cum laude at St. Marys
University; his M.S. Economics, as a Senden scholar at the Asian Social Institute; and his Ph.D. in Agricultural Economics at the University
of Tennessee under a Fulbright-Hays Scholarship. He has written over 180 technical articles related to agricultural policy, feasibility studies,
the economics of food and agriculture, and agribusiness development. His recent books include: Breaking New Ground: The Prospects of
Enhancing the Corn Sectors Global Competitiveness Through Biotechnology (2000), Food-Carrying and Income Generating Capacities of
the Rice Sector (2002), Towards Food Security and Rice Self-Sufficiency: A Major Development Challenge for the Philippines in the New
Millennium (2003), Technical and Allocative Efficiency of Philippine Rice Production (2004), Harnessing the Benefits of Biotechnology:
The Case of Bt Corn in the Philippines (2006), Four Seasons of Commercialization: Monitoring and Evaluating the Socio-Economic Impact
of Bt Corn in the Philippines (2007); Ex Ante Impact Assessment of 3-in-1 Rice (2008) and Modern Biotechnology and Agriculture: A
History of the Commercialization of Biotech Maize in the Philippines (2009). Four of these publications were awarded: Best Book Award
by the National Academy of Science and Technology (NAST) in 2007, 2008 and 2009. Dr. Gonzales was also a former Liaison Scientist
for Asia and Research Fellow of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Washington D.C. and Agricultural Economist of
the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Los Baos, Laguna. He coordinated rice and food policy researches for IFPRI and IRRI
from 1980 to 1992. As senior agricultural policy consultant, he has worked with the Asian Development Bank; World Bank; the United
Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (UN-FAO); United States Agency for International Development (USAID); Philippine Senate;
the Department of Agriculture (DA); Philippine Rice Research Institute (PhilRice); the Department of Agrarian Reform (DAR); and the
Department of Science and Technology (DOST), among others. Currently, he is a member of the Department of Science and Technology
Biosafety Committee (DOST-BC); Senior Rice Policy Adviser of PhilRice; Senior Visiting Lecturer of the Center for Food and
Agribusiness, University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P), Affiliate Faculty and Visiting Lecturer of St. Marys University, and Founding
President and Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Society Towards Reinforcing Inherent Viability for Enrichment (SIKAP/ STRIVE,
Inc.) a non-stock, non-profit organization engaged in policy research, advocacy, and values education.