Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Patrick Roger
Patrick Roger
Strasbourg University, EM Strasbourg Business School
May 2010
2
Probability for Finance
2010 Patrick Roger & Ventus Publishing ApS
ISBN 978-87-7681-589-9
3
Probability for Finance Contents
Contents
Introduction 8
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Probability for Finance Contents
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Probability for Finance Contents
.
4.2.1 Introductive example 101
4.2.2 Conditional expectation as a projection in L2 102
4.3
4.3.1
4.4
Properties of conditional expectations
The Gaussian vector case
The law of large numbers and the central limit theorem
thinking 104
105
108
4.4.1 Stochastic Covergences 108
360
thinking . 360
thinking .
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Probability for Finance Introduction
8
Probability for Finance Introduction
9
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Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
t = 0 T = 1.
.
T
P
P
10
Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
P()
A P()
B A, B c A B c B B c =
{ / / B} . A
(Bn , n N) A, +
n=1 Bn A.
A
(, A) A
T = 1
A A A
/ A.
, .
= {1 , 2 , 3 , 4 } ,
A = {, } A =
{, { 1 , 2 } , { 3 , 4 } , } A = P(),
(Bn , n N) A, +
n=1 Bn
A A
A.
11
Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
= {B1 , ..., BK }
Bi Bj = i = j
K
i=1 Bi = .
A
A.
A
,
, .
Bj
Bj )
Bj Bj
e Graduate Programme
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I wanted real responsibili M
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supervisor ina cons
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the North Sea super
advising and the No
Real work he
helping foremen advis
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al opportunities
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work
or placements ssolve problems
Real work he
helping f
International
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Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
= {B1 , ..., BK }
, B ,
.
B , ,
.
B 2K
A
T > 1
T
P) t < T,
P).
A P) A A
A A
A .
, A ) A
= { 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 } ,
A = {, { 1 , 2 } , { 3 , 4 } , } P).
A B A B c A { 1 , 2 } =
{ 3 , 4 }c . A A
{ 1 , 2 } { 3 , 4 } = .
A
A A A
Card( Card(
Card( < Card(P(.
P(
13
Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
.
.
A A A
A .
2K
K K
A A;
u
d),
uu = u2
u
ud
1
du
d
dd = d2
{uu; ud}
.
{uu; ud} .
ud du
ud
.
14
Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
du.
R,
BR .
R R. BR
15
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Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
(, A)
A A [0; 1]
P () = 1
(Bn , n N) A
+ +
P Bn = P (Bn )
n=1 n=1
(, A, P )
B B c ,
P (B) + P (B c ) = P () = 1
P (B c ) = 1P (B).
B B c
16
Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
(, A, P )
P () = 0
(Bn , n N) Bn Bn+1
A
lim P (Bn ) = P Bn
n+
nN
(Bn , n N) Bn Bn+1
A
lim P (Bn ) = P Bn
n+
nN
B A, P (B c ) = 1 P (B)
P ( ) = P () + P () =
P () = 1. P () = 0
B1 B2 P (B2 ) = P (B1 (B2 B1c )) = P (B1 ) + P (B2 B1c )
P (B1 )
n
(Bn , n N) un = P p=1 Bp
P () = 1
(Bn , n N)
P nN Bn .
n
(Bn , n N) vn = P p=1 B p
P () = 0
(Bn , n N)
P nN Bn .
P (B B c ) = P (B) + P (B c ) B
B c B B c = , P (B B c ) = P () = 1
P (B c ) = 1 P (B)
17
Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
Card() = N A = P() ;
A
1
, P () =
N
[0; 1] [0; 1]
R2 ;
A
, P (A) A P P () = 1;
P
[0; 1] [0; 1]
B = [a; b] [c; d] (d c)(b a) 1.
B (d c)(b a).
(, A, P )
B
A
P ()
P ({})
18
Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
B1 , B2 A P (B1 B2 ) =
P (B1 ) P (B2 ).
B2 A P (B2 ) = 0 B1
B2 P (B1 |B2 ),
P (B1 B2 )
P (B1 |B2 ) =
P (B2 )
B2
B2 . B1
B2 ,
. B1 B2 = , B1
B1
B1 B2
B2 B1 .
B1 B2
P (B1 B2 ) P (B1 ) P (B2 )
P (B1 |B2 ) = = = P (B1 )
P (B2 ) P (B2 )
= [0; 1] [0; 1]
(x, y) B1 = 0; 12
1
3
; 1 B2 = 0; 13 0; 12 ;
1 2 1
P (B1 ) = =
2 3 3
1 1 1
P (B2 ) = =
3 2 6
19
Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
B2 (x, y) B1 x 0; 13 y
1/3 13 ; 12 . (x, y) B2
y 12 . (x, y)
B1 y 13,
y 0; 12 1/3
y 13 ; 12 .
P (B1 |B2 ) = 13 B1 B2 = 0; 13 13 ; 12 ,
1 1 1 1
P (B1 B2 ) = 0 =
3 2 3 18
1
18 1
P (B1 |B2 ) = 1 = = P (B1 )
6
3
B1 B2 .
20
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Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
B1 B2
B1 ,
B2 B1
G G A
B G, B G , P (B B ) = P (B) P (B )
G G
P()
(, A).
.
B A AB
AB = A B A A ;
AB B. (B, AB )
21
Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
B AB B = B (Cn , n N)
Cn = An B
Cn = An B = An B
nN nN nN
A An A
nN nN An B AB
C = A B AB CBc C B.
c
CBc = A B B = Ac B Bc B
= Ac B AB
B P (B) = 0
P (. |B ), P (B1 |B ) B1 ,
(B, AB ) .
P (B |B ) = 1. (Cn , n N)
AB
P nN Cn B P nN (Cn B)
P Cn |B = =
nN
P (B) P (B)
n, Cn B,
P nN Cn nN P (Cn ) nN P (Cn B)
= = = P (Cn |B )
P (B) P (B) P (B) nN
t B.
22
Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
(B, AB , P (. |B )).
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Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
(B1 , B2 , ..., Bn ) C A,
P (C |Bj )P (Bj )
P (Bj |C ) = n
i=1 P (C |Bi )P (Bi )
Bj
n
C= C Bi
i=1
n
n
P (C) = P C Bi = P (C |Bi )P (Bi )
i=1 i=1
P C Bj = P (C |Bj )P (Bj ) = P (Bj |C )P (C)
24
Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
P (C)
C
B1 B2 = B1c
P (C |B1 )P (B1 )
P (B1 |C ) =
P (C |B1 )P (B1 ) + P (C |B2 )P (B2 )
P (B1 ) = 104
P (C |B1 ) = 0.99
P (C |B2 ) = 0.01
0.99 104
P (B1 |C ) = 0.01
0.99 104 + 0.01 (1 104 )
T = 1
R+
R
(S S )/S ,
ln(S /S ), .
25
Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
[2%; 2%]
(, A) (E, B)
E X E
B B, X 1 (B) A
X 1 (B) X 1 (B) = { / X() B} . X
A
X E = R
A.
A) PX BR
PX (B) = P (X 1 (B)) .
X
B PX (B)
E
R Rn
R+ N E R
E = Rn
A . X
X B = [2%; +2%] ,
X 1 (B)
A
X (, A)
(E, B) . X BX A
BX = A A / B B , A = X 1 (B)
26
Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
BX A,
A
A
X
t Ft
s > t.
Ft Fs
uu ud
A = P,
R
A.
27
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Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
Card() =
4 X, Y
X
X()
Y () = 2.
2 4 Y
X.
X Y
1
2
3
4
X Y
BX = P()
BY = {, , { 1 } , { 2 , 4 } , { 3 } , { 1 , 3 } , { 1 , 2 , 4 } , { 3 , 2 , 4 }}
BY Y
St t
uSt1 p
St =
dSt1 1 p
= {uu; ud; du; dd}
S0
B0 = {, } .
.
1, S1
{du; dd} {uu; ud}
B1
B1 = {, , {du; dd} , {uu; ud}}
28
Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
B0 B0 B1 .
B1
S2 = udS0 . S1
.
B2
(S1 , S2 ) S2 . BS
S1 S2 .
A B P (A B) = P (A) P (B)
X Y (, A, P )
(E, B) (A, B) B 2 ,
X 1 (A) Y 1 (B)
= { 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 } A = P()
X Y
1 1
1 2
(X, Y ) = 1
2
1 1
Y = 1, X
1 4 Y = 2,
X 2 3 .
Y BX
X Y
X Y
X Y aX bY a
29
Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
X Y
BX BY .
X
(, A) (R, BR ) X
BR
P A
X (, A)
(E, B) ;
X PX B,
B B, PX (B) = P X 1 (B) = P ({ / X() B})
(E, B) = (R, BR ) , X
FX , R [0; 1]
30
Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
X()
() 3() 3()
= 35
= 63
= 21 1
() 120 () 120 () 120 120
A
PX
P
X
nk = k!(nk)!
n!
k
n 10
3
10!
= 3!(103)! = 120 .
1
A = P() P () = 120 .
PX X
{X = k} k = 0, ..., 3
P (X = 3) =
1
120
. {X = 2} ,
P (X = 2) = 37 120
. {X = 1}
72 = 21
7
10 P (X = 1) = 120 . P (X = 0) =
63
3
/ 3 = 35/120.
63 + 35 + 21 + 1 = 120
{X = k} { X() = k}.
31
Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
(, A, P )
PX BX
A BX A.
FX
X
FX B1 B2
P (B1 ) P (B2 )) x y, (; x] (; y] PX ((; x])
PX ((; y]) .
FX (x)
(; x] , (xn , n N)
x Bn = (; xn ]
B = (; x] .
+ n
P (X x) = 1 FX (x) = 0.99
|x| .
32
x X Y.
X
Y,
x R, FX (x) FY (x)
FX FY X Y.
X Y
X Y,
x,
x X Y.
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Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
X
(xn , n N)
P ({ / X() = xn }) = P (X = xn ) = 1
nN nN
(xn , n N) X.
Y
fY
x
FY (x) = fY (y)dy
FY Y. fY Y
.
+
fY (y)dy = 1
X
X.
B A B,
B
B () = 1 B
= 0
B.
K = 1000 XT
T. 100
{XT 1000} {XT 1000} = { / XT () 1000} .
34
Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
X {x1 , ..., xn } ,
xi = xj i = j = {B1 , ..., Bn }
n
X= xi Bi
i=1
Bi = { / X() = xi } , i =
1, 2, ..., n.
Card() = N X( i ) = xi
N
X= xi { }
i
i=1
Card() < +
{ }
i
X,
Y = g(X) g
g
K T,
YT = g(XT ) = max(XT K; 0) XT
T
35
Probability for Finance Probability spaces and random variables
Xt t.
[0; t]
Xt
Yt = ln = ln(Xt )
1
fX
fY
X fX g
R R fY
Y = g(X)
fX (g 1 (x))
fY (x) = x Y ()
|g (g 1 (x))|
= 0
Y () = {y R / y = Y () } .
36
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
37
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
4021
40 63
1 40 21 40 63
$40 +$ +$ = $1
120 21 120 63 120
38
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Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
X
{x1 , ..., xn } , xi R i. pi = P (X = xi ) i = 1, ..., n;
X P
E(X),
n
E(X) = xi pi
i=1
X fX FX
X P
E(X),
+ +
E(X) = xfX (x)dt = xdFX (x)
n xi
X =
B E(X) = E(B ) = P (B).
X ni=1 xi Bi Bi = {X = xi } ,
n n n
E(X) = E xi Bi = xi E (Bi ) = xi pi
i=1 i=1 i=1
EP E
P. E
P,
Q.
EP EQ .
X Y X + Y
39
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
V
(, A, P ) X
X E(X) XdP,
E(X) = XdP = sup {E(Y ), Y X}
Y V
E(Y ) Y V Y
X
X.
XdP, E(X)
x
FX X
P. .
X
X
X = X+ X
V
f sup f (x)
f(x) x A.
40
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
X X
E(X),
X + X
E(X)
X P,
P E(X)
E (|X|) |X| = X + + X
X, Z A, B
A
X = A E(X) = P (A)
0 X Z 0 E(X) E(Z)
{X 0 A B} E (XA ) E (XB )
c R, E(cX) = cE(X)
E(X + Z) = E(X) + E(Z)
|E(X)| E (|X|)
X = A P (A)
1 P (A)
E(X) = P (A)
Y = 0 V
E(X) E(Y ) = 0.
Z X,
E(Z) E(X).
A B X 0, XA XB
41
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
X V X
c > 0. X cX X + X (cX)+ (cX) .
c (cX) = cX + (cX)+ = cX
E(cX) = E (cX)+ E (cX)
= cE X + cE X +
= c (E(X)) = cE(X)
X X + X
(x1 , x2 , ..., xn ) X
n
E(X) x = n1 xi .
i=1
42
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Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
X E [u(X)]
u
50 = 12 (0 + 100)
E(X)
X.
E [u(X)] u [E(X)]
X u(X)
X u
R R u(X)
E [u(X)] u [E(X)]
x1 x2 p 1 p.
u(x)
(x1 , u(x1 )) (x2 , u(x2 )).
f (x, y) [0; 1] , f(x + (1 )y)
f (x) + (1 )f(y)
43
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
u
u X
X
u > 0
u < 0
2n
n
N
1/2. P (N = n) = 21n
n 1
2n.
X
+
+
n 1
E(X) = 2 P (N = n) = 2n = +
n=1 n=1
2n
44
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
+
+
1 n
E(ln(X)) = ln(2n ) n
= ln(2)
n=1
2 n=1
2n
+
+
+
n 1
n
= =2
n=1
2 n=1 k=n
2k
E(ln(X)) = 2 ln(2) = ln(4)
45
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Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
X.
X,
2 (X)
2 (X) = E(X 2 )
2 (X) X
X
X, V (X) 2 (X)
V (X) = 2 (X) = E (X E(X))2
V (X) Y =
X E(X), V (X) = 2 (Y ). Y
E(Y ) = 0
X
V (X) = E (X E(X))2 = E(X 2 ) E(X)2
E (X E(X))2 = E X 2 2XE(X) + E(X)2
= E X 2 2E [XE(X)] + E(X)2
= E(X 2 ) 2E(X)2 + E(X)2
= E(X 2 ) E(X)2
46
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
card() = P () = 0.25 , X
2
3
X= 1
0
E(X) = 1 Y = X E(X)
1
2
Y = 2
1
X Y
V (X) = V (Y ) = 0, 25 12 + 22 + (2)2 + (1)2 = 2.5
V (X) = V (X + c)
c.
(x1 , x2 , ...., xn) X
n
2 1
s = (xi x)2
n 1 i=1
n 1 n
X x.
X
X, (X) V (X)
(X) = V (X)
47
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
48
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Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
n X,
n (X)
n (X) = E(X n )
X
3. X, Sk(X)
3 (X E(X))
Sk(X) =
(X)3
(x1 , x2 , ...., xn )
X, Sk(X)
n xi x 3
=
Sk
(n 1)(n 2) s
Sk = 0.73
49
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
X
4 (X E(X))
(X) =
4
X
e(X) = (X) 3
= 3.
(X)
(X) =
8.93
L0 (, A) (, A).
, (X + Y ) () = X() + Y ()
, c R, (cX)() = cX()
L0 (, A)
P .
P
50
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
n Rn x y,
d(x, y) x y
d Rn
Rn ,
n
x=y (xi yi )2 = 0
i=1
xi = yi i = 1, ..., n.
[a; b] .
b
d(f, g) = |f(x) g(x)| dx
a
d(f, g) = 0
f = g f(x) = 0 [a; b] g(x) = 0 [a; b[ g(b) = 1.
d(f, g) = 0 f g
f g
R
f Rg f g
R f Rf f Rg
gRf) f Rg gRh f Rh)
d
R
[a; b] . f g
f g, d(f, g)
(f, g) f g.
d S S S R d(x, y) = 0
x = y d(x, y) = d(y, x) d(x, z) d(x, y) + d(y, z)
51
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
L1 (, A, P )
P
(, A, P ).
X Y (, A, P )
P
P
R
L1 (, A, P )
/X()
P (XRY X == = 1
Y YP())
X = Y a.s P (X = Y ) = 1
(, A, P ) A A P
P (A) = 0.
L1 (, A, P ) P
(, A, P ).
R L1 (, A, P )
XRY X = Y P
P P
P P
52
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Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
L1 (, A, P )
L1 (, A, P ) R
L1 (, A, P ). L0 (, A, P ) R
L0 (, A).
L1 (, A, P ) L0 (, A, P ).
L1 (, A, P ) R+ , X X1
X X1 = E(|X|)
L1 R X E(X), X
E(X),
L1 (, A, P ) L0 (, A, P )
X X1 X1 = 0 X = 0 P
X + Y 1 X1 + Y 1
X1 = || X1
L
S S R , .
x = 0 x = 0
x S, c R, cx = |c| x
(x, y) S S, x + y x + y
53
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
L1 (, A, P ))
d1 (X, Y ) = X Y 1 , L1 (, A, P )
d1 L1
(Xn , n N )
L1 X L1
L
Xn X.
L1
Rn
L1 .
L2(, A, P )
L2 (, A, P )
L2 (, A, P )
L2 (, A, P )
L2 (, A, P ) L1 (, A, P )
X Y L2 (, A, P ) XY
L1 (, A, P ).
54
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
Z = X + tY t R
E Z 2 = E X 2 + 2tXY + t2 Y 2 0
= E X 2 + 2tE (XY ) + t2 E Y 2
t.
= E (XY )2 E X 2 E Y 2
X
Y L2 . XY
L2 .
55
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Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
L2 L2 R ., .
(X, Y ) X, Y = E(XY )
L2 .
X2 = X, X = E(X 2 )
d2 d2 (X, Y ) = X Y 2 .
., . X, X = E(X 2 ) > 0 X
P
L1 , L2
L2
(Xn , n N ) L2 X L2
lim E (Xn X)2 = 0
n+
L2
L2 Rn ,
L2 .
R2 , f : R2 R
x R2 , f (x) = a1 x1 + a2 x2
a1 a2 x = (x1 , x2 ).
(a1 , a2 ) f. a = (a1 , a2 )
x R2 f(x)
H
H
H
56
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
a x. f
R2 R a R2 .
L2 (, A, P ).
f L2 R
Yf L2 X L2
f (X) = X, Yf = E(XYf )
X f (X)
X f (X)
Card() = N
Yf
N
f (X) = X, Yf = E(XYf ) = X( i )Yf ( i )P ( i )
i=1
X = ei = {i } ,
i .
f (ei ) = ei , Yf = P ( i )Yf ( i )
f (ei )
i .
P ( i ) Yf ( i ). Yf ( i )
f(ei )
Yf ( i )
Yf ( i )
Yf ( i )
i X,
N
X= xi ei
i=1
X( i ) = xi .
N
N
f (X) = X, Yf = xi f (ei ) = xi Yf ( i )P ( i )
i=1 i=1
R , x y
< x, y >= x y .
57
C C
z)
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
L2
x R2 C
R2 . C z C
x. z x C.
y y.
x z y z 90 270 .
< x z, y z > 0
C C
z)
A
[0; 1] , (x, y) A A, x + (1 )y A.
R , x y < x, y > / x . y .
58
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Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
R2
C L2 X L2 .
Z C
X Z, Y Z 0 Y C
Z X C.
59
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
X Y L2 (, A, P )
X Y, Cov(X, Y ) XY )
cov(X, Y ) = E [(X E(X)) (Y E(Y ))]
X Y
X() Y ()
1
2
3
4
X Y
E(X) = E(Y ) = 2.
1
cov(X, Y ) = (1 1 + (2) (1) + 1 (1) + 2 1) = 0.5
4
P
X Y.
a, b, c, d
X, Y, Z, W
Cov(aX, Y ) = aCov(X, Y ).
60
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
V (X + Y ) = V (X) + V (Y ) + 2Cov (X, Y )
Cov (X, X) = V (X).
Cov (X, Y )
X Y.
X Y L2 ;
X Y XY ,
Cov(X, Y )
XY =
(X)(Y )
(X) (Y ) X Y.
X Y
XY Cov( (X) , (Y )
),
X Y
X, Y
XY =
X2 Y 2
XY
X Y.
1
(X) = ((1)2 + (2)2 + (1)2 + (2)2 ) = 2.5 = 1.58
4
1
(Y ) = ((1)2 + (1)2 + (1)2 + (1)2 ) = 1
4
0.5
XY = = 0.316
1.58
61
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
X Y
X Z L2 a, b, c, d
Cov(aX + b, cZ + d) = ac Cov(X, Z)
aX+b,cZ+d = sign(ac) XZ
Y
W
(aX + b) = |a| (X) (cY + d) = |c| (Y )
62
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Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
X Y L2
X1
X1
X0 = 90
1
E (X1 ) = [0 + 200] = 100
2
E (X1 )
X0 = = 90
1 + Riskpremium
X0
63
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
Q P
X0 = EQ (X1 )
= { 1 , 2 } , X1 ( 1 ) = 200 X1 ( 2 ) = 0.
Q( 1 ) = q1 = 0.45
Q( 2 ) = q2 = 1 q1 = 0.55
EQ (X1 ) = 90 = X0 .
Q
q1 200 + q2 0 = 90
q1 + q2 = 1
Q X0 = EQ (X1 ).
Q( 1 ) = 0.3.
Q Y0 = EQ (Y1 ).
150Q ( 1 ) + 110 (1 Q ( 1 )) = 120
64
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
Q ( 1 ) = 0.25.
Q Q
Q Q
(X0 , Y0 )
200 150 1 0
X + Y + Z =
100 110 1 0
X = 2; Y = 5; Z = 350
200 150 1 0
2 +5 350 =
100 110 1 0
X1
Y1 , X0 Y0
2X0 + 5Y0 = 350.
Y1
Y0 = 122.
65
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
Q( 1 ) = 12
40
= 0.3.
Q
Q
Q
r
1+r
1
, X1
1
X0 = EQ (X1 )
1+r
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Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
{}
1
P ( 1 ) > 0
A11 ,
A10 P ( 1 ),
A10 = EQ (A11 ) ,
EQ (A11 ) = Q( 1 ).
P Q.
Q
P
B A, P (B) = 0 Q(B) = 0
Q << P.
P Q
B A, P (B) = 0 Q(B) = 0
Q << P P << Q.
67
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
Q << P A
B A, Q(B) = dP
B
P (B) = 0 Q(B) = 0
,
Q(B) = B dP, = dQ dP
Q
P. P Q dQ
dP
dQ
dP
dQ dP
= 1/
dP dQ
P Q (, A)
= dQ
dP
.
EQ (X1 ) = E (X1 )
X1 EQ (X1 ) X1 .
P X1 E (X1 ) = , X1
L2 (, A, P ) .
Card() = N A = P () P () > 0
Q({}) = dP = ()P ()
{}
Q()
() =
P ()
68
n
(, A, P ) (Rn , BRn ) . X =
(X1 , ...., Xn ) Xi
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Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
X = (X1 , ...., Xn )
FX Rn [0; 1]
x Rn (x1 , x2 .., xn ) .
Xi X
fX Rn R
x x xn
FX (x) = ... fX (x)dx1 ...dxn
E(X)
Xi X
V (X1 ) ... Cov(X1 , Xj ) Cov(X1 , Xn )
X = Cov(Xj , X1 )
V (Xj )
Cov(Xn , X1 ) V (Xn )
X
2
1 ... 1j 1n
X = j1 2
j
2
n1 n
X n
U, W n Rn .
E(U X) = U E(X)
E (U X, W X) = U E(XX )W
V (U X) = U X U
CoV (U X, W X) = U X W
70
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
n U X =
i=1 Ui Xi V (U X) X (n, n)
XX n n E(XX ) n n
E(Xi Xj )
n X
U Rn n
U, R,
n
R=UX= Ui Xi
i=1
E(R) = U E(X)
V (R) = U X U
E(X)
U
n
Ui = 1
i=1
U =1 Rn
e.
X
(n, n) M x R , x = 0 x Mx > 0.
71
Probability for Finance Moments of a random variable
1
min U X U
2
U E(X) = e
U =1
12
1
L (U, , ) = U X U + (e U E(X)) + (1 U )
2
X = E(X) =
L
= U =
U
L
= e U =
L
= 1 U =
U = 1 +1
e = 1 + 1
1 = 1 + 1
1
U= (eC A)1 +(b eA)1
D
A = 1
B = 1
C = 1
D = BC A2
x x 1 x
Rn x, y = x 1 y.
D
72
Probability for Finance Usual probability distributions in financial models
2 , t
X
p X p 1 p.
73
Probability for Finance Usual probability distributions in financial models
B A P (B) = p, B
p.
B B(p)
X a b (a > b)
p 1 p, Y = ab 1
(X b)
p 1 p. Y B(p).
ln(u)
ln(d) u up d down).
S0 , S1 , uS0 dS0 .
ln(S1 ) = ln(S0 ) + X
X ln(u) ln(d).
B = {SPT K}
SPT T
K
P (B).
X B(p), E(X) = p 2 (X) = p(1 p)
X
p, E(X)
E(X) = p 1 + (1 p) 0 = p
X, 2 (X)
2 (X) = E(X 2 ) E(X)2 = p p2 = p(1 p)
X = X .
74
Probability for Finance Usual probability distributions in financial models
Y y1 y2
p (1 p).
2 (Y ) = p(1 p)(y1 y2 )2
1
X = y y
(Y y2 ) B(p)
Y = (y1 y2 )X + y2
Y
y1 = ln(u) y2 = ln(d).
u 2
360
2 (Y ) = p(1 p) ln
d
thinking .
360
thinking . 360
thinking .
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u d
X
n p X n
Xi , i = 1, ..., n, B(p).
n k
P (X = k) = p (1 p)nk
k
nk = k!(nk)!n!
k n.
X B(n, p).
S
St t , (t + 1)
St+1 = St Xt+1
Xt+1 u d p 1 p.
Xt St
t
St = S0 Xs
s=1
t
St
ln = ln(Xs )
S0 s=1
s = 0 s = t
t
ln(u) ln(d) p 1 p.
76
Probability for Finance Usual probability distributions in financial models
ln(St ) B(n, p)
n k
P (ln(St ) = ln(S0 ) + k u) = p (1 p)tk
k
nk
k t k
B(n, p) n
B(p)).
X B(n, p)
n
t
St
E ln = t (p ln (u) + (1 p) ln(d))
S0
u 2
2 St
ln = tp(1 p) ln
S0 d
StStSt .
77
Probability for Finance Usual probability distributions in financial models
X
X
k
k N, P (X = k)= exp()
k!
X P().
P(2).
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Probability for Finance Usual probability distributions in financial models
P(2)
xk
e = +
x
k=0 k! .
+
+
+
k k
E(X) = kP (X = k) = k exp() = exp() k
k! k!
k=0 k=0 k=1
+
+ k
k1
= exp() = exp() = exp() exp() =
k=1
(k 1)! k=0
k!
+
k
2 (X) = E(X 2 ) E(X)2 = exp() k2 2
k=0
k!
79
Probability for Finance Usual probability distributions in financial models
+
k +
k +
2 2 k1
k = k = k
k=0
k! k=1
k! k=1
(k 1)!
+
+
k1 k1
= (k 1) +
(k 1)! (k 1)!
k=1 k=1
+ k
+ k
2
= +
k! k=0k=0
k!
2
= + exp()
2 (X) = .
P()
B(n, p) n p
n
p
np np(1 p)
np(1 p) np
p
= np.
P(),
80
Probability for Finance Usual probability distributions in financial models
X [a; b] ,
a < b, fX
1
ba
x [a; b]
fX (x) =
0
X U([a; b]).
FX ) X
xa
ba x [a; b]
FX (x) = 0 x < a
1 x > b
[0; 1] .
[c; d]
[a; b]
dc
PX ([c; d]) = PX (]c; d]) = = FX (d) FX (c)
ba
[a; b]
a b.
(ba)
X U([a; b]) E(X) = b+a
2
2 (X) = 12
X [a; b] , X
+ b 2 b
1 1 x
E(X) = xfX (x)dx = xdx =
ba a ba 2 a
2 2
1 (b a ) b+a
= =
2 ba 2
81
Probability for Finance Usual probability distributions in financial models
[0; 1]
+ 2 3 b 2
2 2 b+a 1 x b+a
(X) = x fX (x)dx =
2 ba 3 a 2
1 (b a3 ) 1 2
3
= (a + 2ab + b2 )
3 ba 4
1 2 1
= (a + ab + b2 ) (a2 + 2ab + b2 )
3 4
(b a)2
=
12
82
Probability for Finance Usual probability distributions in financial models
83
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Probability for Finance Usual probability distributions in financial models
X m
X N (m, )) fX
2
1 1 xm
fX (x) = exp
2 2
fX
x = m
2/3
[m ; m + ]
[m 2; m + 2] .
N (0, 1)
N (0, 1)
2 ,
84
Probability for Finance Usual probability distributions in financial models
X N (m, 2 ), E(X) = m 2 (X) = 2
+ 2
1 1 xm
E(X) = x exp dx
2 2
y = xm
,
+
1 1 2
E(X) = (y + m) exp y dy
2 2
+ +
1 2 m 1 2
= y exp y dy + exp y dy
2 2 2 2
+
1
= exp y 2 +m=m
2 2
E(X) = m. exp 12 y 2
y = xm
+
2 1 1 2
(X) = (y + m) exp y dy m2
2
2 2
2 +
2 1 2 2m + 1 2
= y exp y dx + y exp y dx
2 2 2 2
0
2m) ;
+
2 1 2
y y exp y dx
2 2
+
+
2 1 2 1 2
= y exp y exp y dx
2 2 2
+ +
1 1 1 1
= 2 y exp y 2 + exp y 2 dx
2 2 2 2
1. 2 (X) = 2 .
85
Probability for Finance Usual probability distributions in financial models
0 t
r = ln SSt St t (t > 0).
St = S0 er
e Graduate Programme
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I wanted real responsibili www.discovermitas.com
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Probability for Finance Usual probability distributions in financial models
X m
2 ln(X) N (m, 2 ). X
2
1 ln(x)m
1
exp 2
x > 0
fX (x) = x 2
0
X LN (m, 2 ).
m = 0 = 1
87
Probability for Finance Usual probability distributions in financial models
X LN (m, 2 ), E(X) = exp m + 2
2 (X) =
exp (2m + 2 ) (exp( 2 ) 1))
2
+
1 1 ln(x) m
E(X) = exp dx
2 0 2
y = ln(x),
2
+
1 1 ym
E(X) = exp(y) exp dy
2 2
+
1 1 (y (m + 2 ))2 2
E(X) = exp exp m + dy
2 2 2 2
2
= exp m +
2
(m + 2 ) 2 .
V (X) E(X 2 ) =
exp (2(m + 2 )) V (X) = exp (2m + 2 ) (exp( 2 ) 1))
Y N (0, 1) X
2
X = exp m + Y
2
m > 0. X 1
m
X K 1
max(X K; 0)
88
Probability for Finance Usual probability distributions in financial models
E (X K)+ (x)+ = x x > 0 (x)+ = 0
fX X, :
+ +
E (X K)+ = fX (x) max(x K; 0)dx = fX (x)(x K)dx
0 K
+ +
= xfX (x)dx K fX (x)dx
K K
+
= xfX (x)dx KP (X K)
K
+
= xfX (x)dx KP (ln(X) ln(K))
K
X
2
P (ln(X) ln(K)) = P m + Y ln(K)
2
ln(K) m 2
= P Y
N (x)
ln(K) m 2
P (X K) = 1 N
ln(K) + m 2
= N
+ ln(K) + m + 2
xfX (x)dx = em N
K
89
Probability for Finance Usual probability distributions in financial models
m = 3% = 20%.
[900; 1000] .
[1000; 1100]?
90
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Probability for Finance Usual probability distributions in financial models
2 t
2
Y 2 n
Y
n
Y = Xi2
i=1
Xi i,
Xi N (0, 1).
2 (X1 , ....Xn )
(m, 20 ), Y
n
2
Xi m
Y =
j=1
0
2 n
n
20 Y 1
= (Xi m)2
n n j=1
n
m X = n 1
Xi ,
i=1
Y , m X 2
n
2
n 1 n1
1
Xi X
j=1
91
Probability for Finance Usual probability distributions in financial models
2 2
t
Y t
n Y
Z
Y =
X
n
Z X 2
n
92
Probability for Finance Usual probability distributions in financial models
n) n/(n 2)
3(n2)/(n4). n > 4.
n = 6,
Y
X
n
Y = X
n
X1 (X2 ) 2 n1 (n2 )
F (n1 , n2 ) F (n2 , n1 )
F
n1 n2
F
93
Probability for Finance Conditional expectations and Limit theorems
t t + 1,
t.
(, A, P ) = { 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 } , A = P() P ( i ) = 0.25
i = 1, .., 4. X Y
94
Probability for Finance Conditional expectations and Limit theorems
X Y
1 1 1
2 2 1
3 3 2
4 4 2
X Y
1
E(X) = (1 + 2 + 3 + 4) = 2.5
4
1
E(Y ) = (1 + 1 + 2 + 2) = 1.5
4
Y X .
Y () = 1, 1 2 .
{ 1 , 2 } {Y = 1}
{Y = 1} .
1 1
(P ( i |{Y = 1}), i = 1, ..., 4) = ; ; 0; 0
2 2
X
E (X |{Y = 1})
1
E (X |{Y = 1}) = X( i )P ( i |{Y = 1}) = (1 + 2) = 1.5
2
E(X) {Y = 1}
Y
Y. Y,
X 1.5.
95
Probability for Finance Conditional expectations and Limit theorems
X Y
(xi , i = 1, ..., n) (yj , j = 1, ..., p) .
X
{Y = yi } PX|Y (. |yi )
P ({X = x} {Y = yi })
PX|Y (x |yi ) = P (X = x |Y = yi ) =
P ({Y = yi })
P ({Y = yi }) = 0
Y. PX|Y (. |yi )
X.
96
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Probability for Finance Conditional expectations and Limit theorems
fXY ,
fX fY X Y.
y fY (y) > 0,
X {Y = y} fX|Y (. |y )
fXY (x, y)
fX|Y (x |y ) =
fY (y)
X fX B
P (B) = 0 X B
fX (x)
x X(B)
fX (x |B ) = P (B)
0
A.
X
x1 , ..., xN , B A, E(X |B )
N
E(X |B ) = xi P ({X = xi } |B )
i=1
X
fX B A, E(X |B )
+
1
E(X |B ) = xfX (x)dx = xfX (x |B )dx
P (B)
X(B)
97
Probability for Finance Conditional expectations and Limit theorems
{Y = 2}
N
E(X |{Y = 2}) = xi P ({ i } |{Y = 2})
i=1
= 3 P ( 3 |{Y = 2}) + 4 P ( 4 |{Y = 2})
1
= (3 + 4) = 3.5
2
P ( 1 |{Y = 2}) = P ( 2 |{Y = 2}) = 0.
X Y.
Y,
X,
x1 , ..., xN , Y,
y1 , ..., yM , E(X |Y ),
N
{Y = yj } , E(X |Y )() = xi P ({X = xi } |{Y = yj })
i=1
X Y
E(X |Y )
1 1.5
2 1.5
3 3.5
4 3.5
X Y
98
Probability for Finance Conditional expectations and Limit theorems
X Y fX fY
fX|Y (x |y ) .
X {Y = y}
+
E (X |Y = y ) = xfX|Y (x |y )dx
X Y
+
{Y = y} , E(X |Y )() = xfX|Y (x |y )dx
Y {Y = yj }
. E(X |Y )
Y,
Y
E(X |Y ). E(X |Y )
BY .
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Probability for Finance Conditional expectations and Limit theorems
( X L1 (, A, P )), B A, B
Z,
B B, E (ZB ) = E (XB )
Z Z Z
E(X |B ).
X
E(X |B ) B.
X B, E(X |B ) = X.
Card() = , P ( i ) = pi i B
B = {, {1 , 2 } , { 3 , 4 } , }
B1 = { 1 , 2 } B2 = { 3 , 4 } X X = (x1 ; x2 ; x3 ; x4 ) .
p1 x1 + p2 x2 = p1 z1 + p2 z2
p3 x3 + p4 x4 = p3 z3 + p4 z4
Card , X
100
Probability for Finance Conditional expectations and Limit theorems
Z (z1 ; z2 ; z3 ; z4 ) .
B1 B2 . Z B
B1 B2 .
z1 = z2
z3 = z4
1
z1 = z2 = [p1 x1 + p2 x2 ] = E (X |B1 )
p1 + p2
1
z3 = z4 = [p3 x3 + p4 x4 ] = E (X |B2 )
p3 + p4
B1 (B2 )
X
B1 (B2 ).
X B, E (X |B )
X.
L2 , A, P )
L2 (, A, P ) .
R2 ,
d(x, y) = (x1 y1 )2 + (x2 y2 )2
x = (x1 , x2 ) y = (y1 , y2 ) .
x R2 , z =
(z1 , z1 ) x.
minz (x1 z1 )2 + (x2 z1 )2
z1 = z2 .
101
Probability for Finance Conditional expectations and Limit theorems
L2 (, A, P )
z1 = x +x
2
. z
x R
2
z x z.
< z x, z >= (z1 x1 )z1 + (z1 x2 )z1
x2 x1 x1 x2
= z1 + z1 = 0
2 2
R2
d (x, y) = p(x1 y1 )2 + q (x2 y2 )2
p + q = 1, p > 0, q > 0.
z1 = px1 + qx2
z1
x
L2
X
L2 (, A, P ) , E(X |B ) B
B L2 (, B, P ) .
L2 (, A, P ) R4 L2 (, B, P )
R2
E(X |B ) X
L2 (, B, P ) . E (X |B )
minZL ,B,P ) E (X Z)2 = minZL ,B,P ) d(X, Z)2 = E (X E (X |B ))2
E (X |B ) B
z1 = z2
z3 = z4
P
PB B L , B, P ).
P B.
102
Probability for Finance Conditional expectations and Limit theorems
E (X Z)2 = p1 (x1 z1 )2 +p2 (x2 z1 )2 +p3 (x3 z3 )2 +p4 (x4 z3 )2
z1 z3
E (X Z)2
= 2 [p1 (x1 z1 ) + p2 (x2 z1 )] = 0
z1
E (X Z)2
= 2 [p3 (x3 z3 ) + p4 (x4 z3 )] = 0
z3
1
z1 = z2 = (p1 x1 + p2 x2 ) = E (X |B ) ( 1 ) = E (X |B ) (2
)
p1 + p2
1
z3 = z4 = (p3 x3 + p4 x4 ) = E (X |B ) ( 3 ) = E (X |B ) (4
)
p3 + p4
103
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Probability for Finance Conditional expectations and Limit theorems
(X, Y ) L2 (, A, P )
B, B A B B
X c R, E (X |B ) = c
(a, b) R2 , E (aX + bY |B ) = aE (X |B ) + bE (Y |B )
X Y, E (X |B ) E (Y |B )
E (E (X |B ) |B ) = E (X |B )
X B E (XY |B ) = X E (Y |B )
X B, E (X |B ) = E(X)
c c .
B
c L2 (, B, P ) .
L2 (, B, P ) L2 (, A, P ) ,
E (X |B ) X L2 (, B , P ) . E (E (X |B ) |B )
L2 (, B, P ) E (X |B )
L2 (, B , P )
L (, B, P )
2
L2 (, B, P ) .
B = {, } E (X |B ) = E(X)
E (E (X |B )) = E (X) B
E (X E(X) |B ) = 0 E(X)
X E(X) Y
L2 (, B, P )
104
Probability for Finance Conditional expectations and Limit theorems
X E(X) Y.
X = (X1 , ...., Xn )
n
ai Xi
i=1
105
Probability for Finance Conditional expectations and Limit theorems
p = 1 n = 2
p = 1 n = 2
12
E (X1 |X2 = x2 ) = m1 + (y2 m2 )
22
2
X |X =x = 21 12
22
12
X |X =x = 21 (1 212 )
x = (x1 , x2 ))
1
1 exp 12 (x m) X (x m)
fX (x1 , x2 ) (2) |Det(X )|
fX |X (x1 |x2 ) = = 2
fX (x2 ) 1 1 x m
exp
2 2
1
2 exp 12 (x m) X (x m)
= 2 2 2
2 1 2 212 exp 2 1 x m
2
2 1 1 x2 m2
= 2 2 exp (x m) X (x m)
2
2 1 2 12 2 2
1 1 22 12
X = 2 2
1 2 212 12 21
1
A = (x m) X (x m),
2
fX (x1 , x2 ) 2 1 ( 22 x1 + 22 m1 + 12 x2 12 m2 )
= 2 2 exp
fX (x2 ) 2 ( 1 2 212 ) 2 22 ( 21 22 212 )
106
Probability
for Finance Conditional
expectations and Limit theorems
12
E (X1 |X2 = x2 ) = m1 + (x2 m2 )
22
2 212
X |X =x = 1 2
2
g
2
1 1 x 1 m1
(x2 m2 )
g(x1 ) = exp
2 2
2 2 1
1
2
2 1 ( 22 x1 + 22 m1 + 12 x2 12 m2 )
= 2 2 exp
2 ( 1 2 212 ) 2 22 ( 21 22 212 )
X |X =x = 21 (1 212 ) X2 = x2
X1
X1
12
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107
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Probability for Finance Conditional expectations and Limit theorems
L1 L2 .
(Xn , n N) X
(, A, P ) ;
P
(Xn , n N) X Xn X
> 0
lim P (|Xn X| > ) = 0
n+
108
Probability for Finance Conditional expectations and Limit theorems
a.s
(Xn , n N) X Xn X
0 P (0 ) = 1
0 , lim Xn () = X()
n+
PXn PX Xn X (Xn , n N)
L
X Xn X)
f
lim f(x).dPXn (x) = f(x).dPX (x)
n+ R R
X
E(X) = A > 0
1
P (X A)
A
A > 1
X.
X
109
Probability for Finance Conditional expectations and Limit theorems
X L2 (, A, P ) E(X) = m V (X) = 2 ;
B > 0
2
P (|X | B) 2
B
1
P (|X | A)
A2
A X
1
P (X A)
2A2
1
A = 20.01 = 7.0711.
A = 2.32,
110
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Probability for Finance Conditional expectations and Limit theorems
(Xn , n N)
),
Zn = n ni=1 Xi (Zn , n N)
1
> 0
2
P (|Zn | )
n2
(Xn , n N)
Xn X X L2 )
limn+ V (Xn X) = 0
n N)
(Xn ,
Zn = n1 ni=1 Xi
(Zn , n N)
E(|Xn |) = +, Zn
K
ri = E(ri ) + ik Fk + i
k=1
111
Probability for Finance Conditional expectations and Limit theorems
ri i, F1 , ..., FK
ik i
k i
i. Cov(Fk , Fj ) = 0
j = k) Cov(Fk , i ) = 0).
Cov(i , m ) = 0 i = m).
N
N N N K N
1 1 1 1
ri = E(ri ) + ik Fk + i
N i=1 N i=1 N i=1 k=1 N i=1
N K
N
N
1 1 1
= E(ri ) + Fk + i
N i=1 k=1
N i=1 ik N i=1
N
1
N i
i=1
(Xn , n N)
p; Tn
n
Xi np
Tn = i=1
np(1 p)
112
Probability for Finance Conditional expectations and Limit theorems
n u d
up
Y = Y1n , ..., Yk(n)
n
, n 1
k(n) n
n, sn = V
2
i=1 Yi . Y
> 0, U = U1n , ..., Uk(n)
n
,n 1
k(n)
V i=1 Yin
lim =1
n+ s2n
Y = Y1n , ..., Yk(n)n
, n 1
Y1 E (Y1 ) , ...., Yk(n) E Yk(n) , n 1
n n n n
k(n) n
n 1, Zn = i=1 Yi
E (Zn ) V (Zn ) 2 = 0 Zn
Z
u d
u d
113
Probability for Finance Bibliography
114
Probability for Finance Bibliography
115