Clint Dedrickson

7/20/2017

ATMO-1010

Pro. Mallia

Wildfire trends of the Western U.S.

The use of fire is one which has been vital to the survival of humans throughout history.

From creating light, warmth, and cooking, to clearing out vegetation to plant crops or build

homes. It is also natures natural remedy to creating fresh, new plant life and forests. The natural

cycle of plant life is vital. It is extremely important for the environment to have lush plant life

that can photosynthesize; absorbing carbon dioxide and producing oxygen. This process helps

our planet to have clean air and a healthy atmosphere. Although fire is a wonderful tool, both

naturally and man-made, it can be hard to contain and there are problems relating to the spread of

wildfires. I would like to look at several points of view all relating to wildfire trends, the

consequence it has on climate, and how this will affect us. I will answer questions of how

wildfires have been trending in recent years. Also, what fire trends will look like in the future,

and how will it affect us and the Earth.

Within the last several years, the advancement in technology has been massive. Satellite

imagery is one of the biggest creations, and one which really helps in accurately sensing and

tracking wildfires throughout the world. Luckily, dating back before the use of satellites, data

and records were still kept on wildfires. For our purposes, we will mainly focus from the 20th

century forward. According to a graph comprised by NASA, the 1920s to the 1970s show a

downward trend in fire activity. A major reason this takes place is because of the increase in fire

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suppression as NASA acknowledges. There have been major improvements in the way wildfires

are combatted and contained. The technology and use of helicopters has been helpful.

Additionally, the size and capacity of jumbo jets to carry large amounts of newly designed and

tested retardants helps in putting out fires and preventing spread. Fire crews have better gear that

protects them from heat and flames, allowing them to get closer to the front lines. Better

techniques and the uses of trucks and tankers also benefit firefighters. These developments are

major reasons why fire activity has been in decline since the 20s and have continued to decline

even past the 1970s. The list grows long when looking at all the improvements that have been

made in stopping wildfires, but better strategies and technology can only go so far. Since the

1970s, wildfires have continued to decline and containment has been easier, but with hot topic

of climate change, what does the future hold?

According to Philip Dennison and A.L. Westerlings scientific reports, fire activity will

be on the rise, and have actually already started. Westerling believes that the reasoning behind an

increase in fire activity is ultimately because of drought. He states in his report for

sciencemag.org that, If the average length and intensity of summer drought increases in the

Northern Rockies and mountains elsewhere in the western United States, an increased frequency

of large wildfires will lead to changes in forest composition and reduced tree densities, thus

affecting carbon pools. (Westerling, 2006) I will touch on the effect these fires have on trees

and carbon levels later on. For now, we will be addressing the causes of wildfire frequency.

According to Westerling, these droughts occur due to higher temperatures. As we have higher

temperatures in the spring, snowmelt runs off quicker, leaving the summer months to be dryer

for a longer period of time. This longer period of time is extremely prone to the starting of

wildfires, and the dryer environment means more fuel for the fires to uncontrollably feed off of.

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To support this idea, Dennisons research letter for the American Geophysical Union states in its

findings that, For the Ecoregions with the largest increases in fire activity, temperatures trended

hotter and precipitation trended drier relative to ecoregions not experiencing significant changes

in fire variables. (Dennison, 2014) Westerling and Dennison show us that these dryer summers

(due to drought) are in fact causing an increase in wildfires across the western U.S. With the

data that was collected and recorded, Dennison concluded, For all ecoregions combined, the

number of large fires increased at a rate of seven fires per year. (Dennison, 2014) Even though

7 per year doesnt seem like a lot, it does add up quickly. Even just one wildfire can cause a lot

of damage and pollution, as well as a lot of money to stop it. We know from the research that

these fires come from drought, but we also know long, dry summers didnt just start at random.

If a change is made, then we need to be able to identify the problem and where this has started

from.

What might be reasons for the increasing trend of wildfires in the U.S? Ultimately, the

causes must be linked to climate change. With the addition of greenhouse gases, Earths

atmosphere increases in temperature. According to Professor Mallias report written for Physics

Today, he states, climate change is projected to increase global average temperatures by 2 C to

7 C by 2100, which would result in more arid conditions and possibly an escalation in wildfire

activity. (Mallia, 2016) This increase in temperature adds to the already dry and hot summers

the western U.S. endures. Between the increasing number of fires adding more carbon and

pollutants, and mankinds contribution to the atmosphere, it looks to be a vicious cycle that will

just get worse year after year. The increase in wildfires alone has a major effect on this cycle.

Mr. Bowmans article for sciencemag.org proclaims smoke plumes inhibit convection, and

black carbon warms the troposphere, thereby reducing vertical convection and limiting rain-

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cloud formation and precipitation. (Bowman, 2009) The increase in wildfires alone hinders the

formation of clouds and precipitation. Add the consequences of greenhouse gases and pollution

and you have an increasingly hot, arid environment. The environment within the western U.S. is

very important to our atmosphere and our personal well-being. The drought conditions, mixed

with increasing wildfires and the already present pollution taking place will cause very negative

consequences.

The amount of smoke and carbon emitted from a wildfire is substantial. Dust and ash can

leave layers of film on everything miles away from the actual fire; like freshly fallen snow. We

also have to take into account all the trees that burn and are killed can no longer convert carbon

dioxide into oxygen, which doesnt help in the fight against climate change and pollution.

Professor Mallia found current studies suggest that forests in the western U.S. sequester [or

absorb] 2040% of the countrys carbon emissions. (Mallia, 2016) That is a very large number,

but if more of these forests are being burnt down, then these forests wont be able to produce

these types of numbers any longer. This will change the tide, possibly causing the western

United States to produce even more carbon than it used to absorb. Sadly, this isnt a trend just for

the western U.S. There are many other places throughout the world that have massive amounts of

trees and vegetation that absorb the Earths carbon and produce oxygen. Bowmans report

mentions large, expensive fires is Southeast Asia and Latin America. I would also add the

common wildfires that happen in Australia too. If you also include all the trees being burned or

torn down from manmade deforestation, then the number only goes up. This means pollution

only gets worse and there are less trees to contest against our carbon footprint. The outcome of

increased fires and pollution presents negative consequences, one of them being bad air quality.

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 The extra pollutants in the air from fires will be harmful to humans and animals alike.

Already we have warnings of going outside due to bad air quality. There are color coded warning

signs such as a red air day letting us know what the air quality will be like. Signs on the

freeway encourage us to carpool or use public transportation at times when bad air quality is

predicted. It isnt just in Utah either. Bad air quality plagues cities all across the United States.

These examples are usually from pollution caused by our homes, cars, industrial factories, etc.,

however, an increase in wildfires would make these conditions worse. Breathing in byproducts

of wildfires greatly effects humans, similarly to the pollutants and red air days we are used to.

It is said that small particulates and precursors to ozone formation that negatively impact the

human respiratory, cardiovascular, and immune systemscan travel for hundreds of miles.

(Mallia,2016) This means no one is safe, and that people hundreds of miles away from a wildfire

can still be affected and harmed by the particles carried in ash and smoke. One of the most

common side effects is asthma and other respiratory issues since it is so easily breathed in. The

increased amount of carbon burned off from these fires only hurt the atmosphere and the air that

we breathe further, and the fires create less trees to photosynthesize it back into oxygen. It is a

cycle that unless broken, can only get worse throughout the future.

The strategies used to combat wildfires has come a long way in the last 40 years. As a

result, we have seen a decrease in the frequency and intensity of wildfires. Unfortunately, due to

climate change creating drying, longer summers, the size and frequency of wildfires is rising and

will continue to rise. These wildfires result in harmful particles which, when inhaled, can cause

numerous medical problems. I hope we can find a way to break the trend of wildfires, so that

our forests can flourish and create the clean air which we and our atmosphere need in order to

prosper.

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 Works Cited

Bowman, David. Fire in the Earth System. Amercian Association for the Advancement of
Science (AAAS). April 24, 2009. http://www.sciencemag.org/. Web. Accessed on July
19, 2017.

Dennison, Philip. Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984-2011. American
Geophysical Union (AGU). April 25, 2014. Web. Accessed July 19, 2017.

Derek Mallia. Western US wildfires in an increasingly warming climate. Physics Today. May
25, 2016. http://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.5.4021/full/. Web. Accessed
July 19, 2017.

NASA. Global fire activity variations. Image. Accessed on July 19, 2017.

Westerling, A.L. Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity.
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). Vol.313. August 18,
2006. http://www.sciencemag.org/. Web. Accessed July 19, 2017.