Professional Documents
Culture Documents
July 2016
PHILIPPINES IN 2030
KEY FINDINGS
SUMMARY
PHILIPPINES AND THE WORLD IN 2030
POPULATION PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE
POPULATION SHIFT
AGEING
MEN AND WOMEN
MARRIAGE AND DIVORCE
BIRTHS AND FERTILITY
LIFE EXPECTANCY AND DEATHS
MIGRATION
DIVERSITY
URBANISATION
CITIES
PHILIPPINES IN 2030
Key Findings
In 2030, the population of the Philippines will reach 124 million, an increase of 22.7% from 2015.
By 2030 the Philippines will be the 12th largest country in the world.
Despite healthy population growth between 2015 and 2030, the rate of growth will slow during this period
as birth and fertility rates drop and life expectancy increases, producing the most pronounced growth in
older age groups.
The rate of population growth will be particularly high in the 60+ age groups, which taken together will
increase by 73.2%.
The marriage rate in the Philippines is set to fall from 4.7 marriages per 000 in 2015 to 4.3 in 2030,
significantly lower than the 1980 figure of 7.0.
In the Philippines the fertility rate was 2.9 children per female in 2015, well above the replacement rate of
2.1. It will however fall to 2.5 children per female by 2030, much lower than in 1980 when the rate was 5.2.
Net migration has been negative for over three decades, a trend which will continue in the future, albeit at a
declining rate. Negative net migration will fall from -111,559 in 2015 to -79,986 in 2030.
The urban population will experience rapid growth of 42.4% in 2015-2030, overtaking the rural population
for the first time in 2016, to reach 70.9 million and account for 57.4% of the total population in 2030.
Summary
Population Statistics: 2030 Foreign Citizens: 2030 Growth of Top 10 Cities
% share of foreign citizens 000; 2015/2030; % share of urban population
POPULATION (MILLION) USA 4,000
124
Quezon City 5.5%
Japan
India
China
South Korea
MEDIAN AGE (YEARS) LIFE EXPECTANCY (YEARS) Canada
2015
2030
27.7 70.4
Australia
Germany 3,000
Taiwan
Indonesia
Caloocan 2.9%
UK
Other Manila 2.7%
0% 50%
Population Age Shift: 2015/2030
2,000
000, by age Davao 2.2%
2,500
Cebu 1.6%
2,000 Pasig 1.4%
Taguig 1.3%
1,500
Antipolo 1.3%
1,000
1,000
Cagayan de Oro
1.1%
500 2030 Valenzuela 1.0%
0 2015
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 79
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics /UN 0
Note: Top 10 cities are based on the biggest cities according to the latest historic or census data.
Age Structure of the Population at a Glance: 1980-2030 In 2030, the population of the Philippines will
(Each dot represents a single-year age group)
reach 124 million, an increase of 22.7% from
2015.
28.3% of the population will be aged 0-14
65.0% of the population will be aged 15-64
6.7% of the population will be aged 65+
There is a red/dark orange hot spot evident
on the chart indicating a large proportion of
the population will fall between the ages of 0
and 18 in 2030. This segment will account
for 35.5% of total population and each
individual year group will total in excess of
2.1 million people. The trend can be
explained by an elevated number of live
births in the 2010s and 2020s.
Despite healthy population growth between
2015 and 2030, the rate of growth will fall
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN during this period as birth and fertility rates
Reading the chart: This heat chart depicts changes in the age structure of the population drop and life expectancy increases,
over time. Each dot represents the number of people in a specific (single year) age group
in a given year. Accordingly, a dark red dot shows the largest concentration of people, by producing the most pronounced growth in
age, in a particular year while deep blue dots refer to the lowest concentrations. The older age groups.
areas of red therefore represent a large potential market in demographic terms.
Population Shift
Ageing
8 of 7.0.
6 Despite the declining marriage rate, the share
of married people in total population should rise
4
from 33.7% in 2015 to 34.9% in 2030. The
2 regional average for Asia Pacific will be higher
at 51.9% in 2030 due to the lower share of
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 children in the region as a whole.
Marriage Rates In 2030 the average age at first marriage for
men should reach 24.2 years while for women
Population by Marital Status: 1980s-2020s it should be 21.7 years, both nearly half a year
lower than the rates in 2015.
100%
According to the Philippine Statistics Authority
% of total population
80%
(PSA), in 2011 (latest data available) civil
60% marriages accounted for 42.5% of all marriages
40%
in that year, whilst Roman Catholic marriages
were 35.9% of all marriages, Muslim were
20% 0.8%, tribal rites were 0.7% and other religions
0% 20.0%.
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s
Divorcees should increase slightly from 1.0% of
Married Divorced Widowed Single Unknown the total population in 2015 to 1.3% in 2030,
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics similar to the regional share over this period.
In the Philippines the fertility rate was 2.9 children per female in 2015, well above the replacement rate of
2.1. It will however fall to 2.5 children per female by 2030, much lower than in 1980 when the rate was 5.2.
The average age of women at childbirth will fall slightly from 28.6 years in 2015 to 28.1 years in 2030, and
is lower than the figure of 30.2 years recorded in 1980. The PSAs National Demographic and Health
Survey 2013 found that the age of women at first childbirth is higher in urban areas, amongst the better
educated and more affluent.
The birth rate is also expected to fall from 23.3 births per 000 in 2015 to 19.6 in 2030, almost half the 1980
rate of 36.6. The regional average birth rate for Asia Pacific was lower at 17.4 per 000 in 2015 and will still
be lower at the lower figure of 14.1 in 2030.
Despite falling birth rates, there will be a modern peak of 2.4 million live births in 2030, 3.2% higher than
the 2015 figure of 2.3 million. This can be explained by the fact that the number of woman of childbearing
age will increase by 21.8% in 2015-2030, even though their share in female population will decline slightly
from 52.3% to 51.5% over this period.
Mean Age at Childbirth: 1980s-2020s
Birth Rates: 1980s-2020s 30
40
Per 000 inhabitants
28
30
Years 26
20 24
10 22
0 20
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s
Migration
1,500
1,000
500
000
Diversity
The largest group of foreign citizens in 2015 came from the USA, making up 17.4% of all foreign citizens.
By 2030 this figure will grow to 17.8%.
Chinese citizens were the second largest group of foreign citizens in 2015 and accounted for 10.7% of all
foreign citizens. However, they will be overtaken by Japanese citizens in 2020 who will grow by 33.0% in
2015-2030 to make up 8.2% of all foreign citizens in 2030, and Indian citizens in 2024 who will grow by
31.8% in 2015-2030 to make up 6.3% of all foreign citizens in 2030. Meanwhile, Chinese citizens will fall by
46.9% over the same period to make up 4.8% of foreign citizens in 2030.
There are estimated to be between 120 and 175 Philippine languages in total, however there are two
official languages, Filipino and English, plus a further 19 recognised regional languages. 99.9% of the
population will be speakers of Philippine languages in 2030, the same ratio as in 2015.
Foreign Citizens: 2015/2030 Population by Language: 2015/2030
Other 100%
100%
UK Other
Indonesia
% of foreign citizens
80%
% of total population
Taiwan
Chinese
Germany
60%
Australia
Canada English
40%
South Korea
China
20% Philippine
India languages
Japan 99%
0%
2015 2030 USA 2015 2030
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN
Urbanisation
The Philippines population was predominantly rural up to 2015 Rural and Urban Population in
when 50.5% of the population lived in rural areas. Philippines: 2030
However the urban population will experience rapid growth of
42.4% in 2015-2030, overtaking the rural population for the first
time in 2016, to reach 70.9 million and account for 57.4% of the Rural
total population in 2030. Urban
380
80
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Cities
Growth of Top 10 Cities Four of the Philippines 10
000; 2015/2030; % share of urban population
4,000
major cities will have a
Quezon City 5.5%
population in excess of one
million in 2015, and they should
be joined by two more in 2030.
Seven of the 10 major cities are
2015
2030
3,000 located on Luzon, the largest
and most populous island.
The biggest city in 2015 was
Caloocan 2.9%
Quezon City and will remain so
Manila 2.7% in 2030. 7.9% of all urban
2,000
Davao 2.2% population lived in Quezon City
in 2015 and this will drop to
Cebu 1.6%
5.5% in 2030.
Pasig 1.4%
Taguig 1.3%
All of the Philippines' 10 largest
TOP-10 CITIES
COMBINED POPULATION (MILLION) 1,000 Antipolo 1.3%
cities will increase in size
21.2% 0
32.0% to grow from 763,155
people in 2015, to 1.0 million in
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics 2030.
Note: Top 10 cities are based on the biggest cities according to the latest historic or census data.
Vital Statistics
Life Expectancy
Population by Citizenship
Population by Language
Population by City