Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Preface
November 2016
Contents
1. Executive summary 3
3. Positively inclined 5
8. Infographics on AI 14
1. Executive summary
A
sia-based senior executives at global Executives also feel positively about AIs ability
firms believe that the impact of artificial to add value to their own industries, with the
intelligence (AI) and robotics on their business exception of financial service executives, who
performance in Asia will be profound and positive are generally less confident that automation and
and will be felt sooner than we may think. machine learning will create purely constructive
Outside of global robotics industry leaders Korea benefits for their industry.
and Japan, most of Asia currently lacks the depth
of technical skills and R&D facilities needed to keep Most C-suite respondents feel AI will significantly
pace with AI development. However, China, India, improve their own competitiveness in Asia,
and other large Asian economies generate a copious especially their process efficiency and their ability
amount of data, a tremendous natural resource to delve into customer data to achieve better
that is critical to pushing AIs capabilities forward. insight. Again, financial industry responses lagged
Ironically, given the commonly held view that AI will the average.
be responsible for disintermediation of jobs at all
levels, it is Asias massive human capital dividendthe Only a small percentage of respondents are
billions of constantly Internet-connected workers and currently investing in AI development in Asia. 25%
consumersthat will propel AI development in the of respondents, however, indicate that their firms
region farther and faster. have already made investments at a global level
MIT Technology Review surveyed over 60 Asia- and another 50% are considering doing so.
based senior executives to gather perspective on the
impact of AI and robotics on Asias business landscape. Some 70% of HR executives feel that AI and
Additionally, two dozen senior HR professionals robotics adoption will result in significant job losses
were polled to assess the impact on jobs in Asia in Asia over the next five years. Unsurprisingly,
and the future of their roles in particular. Several nearly all of these respondents feel these
in-depth interviews were conducted with AI industry technologies will have a major impact on their roles
technologists, investors, and application developers. and functions in the future.
The key findings of this research are as follows:
Specifically, HR managers and talent professionals
Overwhelmingly, respondents feel technological feel that their roles will evolve into broader, and
advancements in AI and robotics will have very more strategic, productivity management roles;
positive effects on most industrial sectors in Asia. two-thirds of them say their roles will encompass
the management of both human and artificial talent
They also believe even more strongly that these in the next five years.
technology advancements will specifically improve
their own firms competitiveness.
S
peculation on the future of artificial intelligence MIT Technology Review has conducted surveys
(AI) and robotics technologies often posits and interviews across Asia in developing this report,
a binary outcome: either AI will profoundly which assesses how recent advancements in AI and
increase efficiency and convenience for the worlds robotics are impacting Asias business landscape,
economies and its people, or it will irrevocably disrupt looking at the efforts that Asian governments,
(if not destroy) nearly every established industry and research institutes, and venture capitalists are making
the livelihoods they all support. to hasten their development.
The reality will lie between these two extremes.
Based on research gathered from surveying Asian
business leaders and human resources and AI
professionals, this report argues that AIs future will
cleave much more closely to the positive outcome.
Moreover, this future appears to be approaching
quickly: advances in deep learning and the rapid
expansion of process automation in such diverse
sectors as manufacturing, transportation, and
financial services mean that AIs impact is growing
exponentially with each passing year. Decision makers
in all organizations must now begin to understand
how AI will alter their own operational processes and
those of suppliers, partners, and customers.
Asias business landscape is poised not only to
benefit greatly from AIs rise, but also to define it.
Asias quest for technology innovation and sustained
economic growth drives tremendous investment in
the space. Japan and Korea are looking to infuse all
manner of consumer electronics with intelligence.
China is attempting to complement and extend, rather
than replace, human labor to maintain its dominant
role in global manufacturing. China is also striving to
build up its intellectual property reserves to ensure
that its own firms are globally competitive in the
creation of AI and robotic technologies. Singapore Asias business landscape is
and Hong Kong are in a race to become leading
financial technology hubs, seeding investment in AI
poised not only to benefit greatly
tools in financial service applications. from AIs rise, but to also define it
3. Positively inclined
Executives feel positively about AIs ability to add value to their industries
S
urvey respondents were asked whether they increase in the industrys value and efficiency).
felt robotics and AI would have a constructive Across industry sectors, responses were positive
or a destructive effect on several market over 3.8. They were higher in more technology-
segments; their responses were ranked from 1 (AI dependent industries such as information
adoption would result in the destruction of jobs technology and communications (ITC), logistics,
and processes) to 5 (AI would bring a significant and manufacturing.
Chemicals* 3.7
Commodities* 3.5
Consumer 3.9
goods, Retail 3.9
Financial 3.7
services 3.9
Information 4.1
technology & 4.1
communications
Manufacturing 4.6
4.1
Pharma,
4
Healthcare*
Professional 4
services 3.7
Property, 3.5
Construction 3.6
Transport, 4.4
Logistics 4.1
1 2 3 4 5
Respondents within the sector Average
* Sectors for which only the Average metric had a statistically significant number of respondents.
Source: MIT Technology Review
4
3.9 3.9 4
3 3.7 3.5
2
1
Asias manufacturing Asias service Asias tech and innovation My industrys My companys
competitiveness industries government policies growth prospects competitiveness
4
4.2
Data is the most important
resource for successful machine
Professional
learning developmentand
services mobile data provides AI
3.6 developers with a large amount of
Source: MIT Technology Review
4.1
useful data.
Zhang Yue, Professor, SUTD
I
n addition to compiling senior executives In his view, this not only heightens anxieties for
views about AIs impact on the Asian business talent managers within enterprises but influences
environment, we surveyed two dozen senior human government policy makers as well. Asian governments
resource executives in AsiaHR directors, recruiting are particularly suspicious of the threat AI poses to
consultants, and talent acquisition headsto their efforts to transform skills in the labor force,
understand their views on AIs potential to disrupt he says, noting that governments should be more
talent management. focused on ways to retrain displaced workers rather
The results revealed an assumption that than defending existing jobs from disintermediation.
tremendous change is imminent in the profession of The views of the industry professionals surveyed
human resources: 70% of respondents feel that AI suggest that enterprises may soon be shifting
and robotics will lead to substantial job losses in Asia their practices in human resource management to
over the next five years, underscoring a long-standing achieve that focus. Nearly all respondents felt that
anxiety that many in Asia feel when considering their professions would be significantly altered with
the impact of new technologies. The pace of work the advent of AI. However, they also felt that these
displacement in Asia will be at a much faster rate, changes would be positive. Rather than the HR
because of the relatively higher percentage of function narrowing as robots replace workers, the
low-skilled jobs in the labor force relative to more majority of respondents thought that it would be
developed economies says Tak Lo, a partner at Hong expanded to oversee the management of both human
Kongbased AI accelerator Zeroth.AI. and machine productivity.
Will advancements in AI and robotics lead to substantial job losses in Asia over the next five years?
(% of respondents)
Will these technologieshave a major impact on the role and function of the HR chief?
(% of respondents)
How will the role of the HR functionchange with advancements in AI and robotics?
(% of respondents)
HR will be tasked with managing overall productivity, HR will keep managing people,
and therefore both man and machine (66.7%) and only people (33.3%)
D
ecision makers at Asian-based firms are firmly Asian governments feel they need to take to mitigate
convinced of the benefits AI and automation with technology progression, he says.
technology will bring to their own prospects In China, the hope is to use automation to bolster
and the regions economy as a whole, but most labor productivity as the countrys workforce ages
have not yet committed resources to capitalize on and shrinks. Over the longer term, China hopes to
these beliefs. A small percentage of respondents build a domestic manufacturing capability in industrial
indicate that they have invested in AI in Asia, and robots and, by extension, in process automation and
nearly 20% say they have robotics and automation artificial intelligence. Singapore, by contrast is into a
commitments in the region. Larger percentages little bit of everythingfintech, autonomous driving,
indicate that they have AI or robotics investments automated customer support, says Tak. Autonomous
at a global level, and fully half indicate that they are driving is considered one of the most likely AI-enabled
considering AI investments. applications, observes Professor Zhang of the
While multinational firms may not be committing Singapore University of Technology and Design, but
resources to AI development in Asia yet, domestic largely as an anchor for establishing a broad-based
industries across the region are most certainly doing AI innovation platform. Singapore is aligning its policy
so, driven by a traditional response of policy makers objectives across multiple sectorsurban mobility,
in the region, according to Zeroth.AIs Tak Lo: The financial data science, health carein an effort to
external shocks that can happen create risk that elicit the synergies across them and speed up AI
development overall, he says.
Asia as a regional economy is poised not only to
Figure 5: AI investment plans benefit greatly from advancements in AI and robotics
(% of respondents) technologies, but to also define themand perhaps
to lead their future development. AIs rise will create
a seismic shift in the processes that senior managers
20 use to manage talent, growth, and productivity across
13
25 nearly every industry sector. Asian businesses stand
to leverage AIs rise faster, thanks to the virtuous
Automation/
43
AI (analytics,
Robotics cycle created by Asias technology investments and
machine
learning or other the organic growth of big data.
AI capabilities)
50 13 18
18
AIs rise will create a seismic
shift in the processes that senior
We have invested globally We are considering investment managers use to manage talent,
We have invested in Asia We have no plans to invest growth and productivity, across
Source: MIT Technology Review
nearly every industry sector
MIT Technology Review, 2016. All Rights Reserved.
Asias AI agenda 11
Conclusion
A
sian business leaders need to adopt an Aware, but unprepared. C-level executives surveyed
extreme openness to successfully capitalize also firmly believe that process automation will not
on todays AI and automation trendsa only improve their own business performance but
willingness to actively collaborate in data analytics impact industry growth overall. Yet only a small
projects and share best practices and insight percentage of respondents indicate that they are
resulting from their own process automation efforts. currently investing in AI or robotics in Asia, and
These technologies may have powerful effects on although many more say they are considering
an individual firms competitiveness (as business investment, it is clear that business leaders in the
leaders assume in the survey results), but the quest region must take more active steps to prepare for AIs
for competitive advantage cannot blind business rapid rise.
leaders to the greater benefits of collaboration, in
much the same way that competitive AI developers Change Asias workers can believe in. Most Asia-
themselves are increasingly pooling resources based human resource professionals surveyed feel
to accelerate their collective progress. It will also AI and automation will soon create significant job
require leaders to champion process improvements losses in the region. At first glance, this outlook paints
based on automation and machine learning that are a bleak picture for Asias workers, who mostly live
integrated into their firms broader talent management in economies where automation threatens the very
programs. AI may start to disintermediate roles and entry-level jobs upon which they depend to build skills
responsibilities across Asias economies, but it will and advance careers. But when asked what sort of
enhance and redefine far more, while increasing the impact this would have on the profession overall, most
productivity of all workers. HR industry participants believed that their roles would
The research undertaken for this report evolve and expand so that they would manage and
has elicited three primary take-aways for senior develop both human capital and inputs from machines.
executives managing businesses across Asia: The emergence of a holistic view of productivity
development across an entire firm and its assets,
AIs big bang. The C-level executives surveyed and AI coupled with the high hopes Asia-based senior
industry experts interviewed are largely aligned in the executives have for AIs influence on their firms
belief that AI and robotics will impact every industry success, means it is likely that business leaders
significantly, positively, and all at once. Rising investment will focus their investment and adoption efforts on
in process automation in Asian manufacturing tends complementing and enhancing job functions with
to focus much of the industrys attention, with good automation, rather than eliminating them.
reason: three Asian countriesChina, Korea, and
Japanpurchased nearly half the worlds shipments of
250,000 articulated robots last year. But importantly,
survey respondents largely felt that most other sectors,
from retail to logistics, would benefit equally from AI
technology. AI industry executives feel that big datas
growth in Asia will allow autonomous and intelligent
applications to proliferate across almost all industries in
the region more or less simultaneously.
7. Survey demographics
and firmographics
O
ver 60 Asia-based senior decision makers were CEOs, and a further 20% of respondents
responded to our 10-question survey. We were CFOs or other C-suite executives. The
sought their opinions on advancements in majority of our respondents were executives at
the artificial intelligence and robotics industries, and large multinationals headquartered outside of Asia;
we asked how these industries would impact growth roughly equal percentages reported that their head
prospects for Asian business. offices were in Europe, North America, or the Asia-
Our respondents were senior regional decision Pacific region. Over 70% of respondent firms had
makers from over a dozen industries, with large global annual revenues of over US$1bn, and over a
representation from the financial service industries, quarter represented firms with turnovers in excess of
consumer goods and retail, and professional US$10bn annually.
service sectors. More than half of our respondents
.3
5
3
.1
7.9
7.9
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
20
14
14
6.
9.
11
Roles
.3
.7
5
7.9
1.6
54
14
12
9.
CEO/Managing Director/President CFO CIO CXO Director of Sales and/or Marketing Other Director-level
HQ
.9
.6
.3
2
34
28
33
3.
Size of firm
.9
.3
8
.1
27
27
15
14
4.
11
<$50m $50m to $500m $500m to $1bn $1b to $5bn $5bn to $10bn > $10bn
7.9 12.7
Manufacturing 25.4 27 30.2
presence
Direct wholesale
34.9 44.4 36.5 54 42.9
and/or retail
activities
14.3
19
Investment 33.3 39.7 47.6
activities
1943
A
Ajedrecista, a machine that can automatically
rticial intelligence, as we
play chess thanks to a simple algorithm built into
use the term in this report, is
Neuroscientist Warren McCulloch and its mechanical design.
an evolving constellation of
technologies that enable computers to logician Walter Pitts present a calculus
simulate elements of human thinking based on neuron-like logic units that can
learning and reasoning among them.
Regular improvements in Googles
search algorithm, for example, come
be connected together in networks to
model the action of a real brain. 1950
In a paper that helps establish a practical goal
frommachine learning, a type of AI that
programs systems to learn from data, for articial-intelligence research, Alan Turing
proposes a game to answer the question Can
nd patterns in it, and make predictions
about it. The same technology has
been pivotal to voice and image
1956 machines think? He predicts that by 2000
computers will be able to pass as human more
recognition as well as advances in self- John McCarthy, Marvin Minsky, and than 30 percent of the time.
driving cars. Integral to many recent Claude Shannon organize a summertime
improvements in the eld is a form of research meeting at Dartmouth that
1958
machine learning called deep learning. brings together the leading thinkers
Looselymodeled on the way neurons on information theory, articial neural
and synapses in the brain change networks, and symbolic logic, christening
as they are exposed to new input, it the eld articial intelligence. Oliver Selfridge presents a paper in England
has been used independently or in describing Pandemonium, a new model of a
combination with other AI approaches neural network based on lower-level data
to help machines tackle tricky tasks and demons working in parallel with higher-level
exhibit something resembling intuition,
in some cases performing tasks better
than humans.
1960 cognitive demons in order to perform pattern
recognition and other tasks.
Frank Rosenblatt demonstrates the
Mark I Perceptron, an attempt to create
an articial neural network for image
recognition that the New York Times
calls the rst step toward a computer
1961
able to walk, talk, see, write, reproduce ... Marvin Minsky publishes his foundational paper,
and be conscious of its existence. Steps Toward Articial Intelligence.
3.67
As of 2015, groups 3
reported different results
using AI techniques like
deep learning on large 2
1.65
data sets, but computers
are sometimes better 1 Human
than humans at 0.53 0.37
recognizing a face. 0.23
0
Chinese
Microsoft Facebook Google Baidu
University of
Hong Kong
2004 2011
DARPA sponsors its rst Grand IBMs Watson defeats Jeopardy! champions
Challenge, which pits research teams Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter in a televised
2000 against each other to design driverless two-game, three-night face-off that ends with
vehicles capable of independently the computer amassing more than three times
traversing the Mojave Desert. the winnings of its human competitors.
Cynthia Breazeal designs a sociable
humanoid robot named Kismet that is
able to express emotion and recognize
1997
2012
cues from interaction with humans.
IBMs Deep Blue chess computer
avenges its prior defeat to world A team from Geoff Hintons lab wins
2014
short, DARPA cuts the projects budget. Douglas Lenat begins the Cyc project, an
ambitious attempt to create a common-
1966
Cant Do, a manifesto challenging the
predictions of AI researchers, and scientist
James Lighthill pens a pessimistic review
2016
Googles AlphaGo decisively beats the
Joseph Weizenbaum demonstrates ELIZA, of progress in AI research in the U.K., world champion of the complex board
the worlds rst chat program, which is able to leading to funding cuts. game Go.
converse using a series of preprogrammed
phrases, sometimes to comic effect.