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3) Niche Business Model
Sector opportunity
1) Sector potential to grow 2) Cyclical / Non
Consistency Cyclical 3) Favoring Policies
1) Sales / EBIDTA / PAT growth (3-5 years)
2) Stable or improving margins (3-5 years) Diversification
1) Sectorally well diversified basket of 15 stocks
Visibility 2) 40:60 Large cap and Midcap companies
1) Earnings outlook over next 3 years
2) Predictable business model
Exposure
1) Single Stock exposure < 10%
Corporate Governance 2) Single Sector exposure < 30%
1) Management back ground
2) Accounting & Corporate policies
Active Monitoring
1) Tracking news /policy /Quarter Performance
2) Rebalancing recommended list
Stock Selection
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The above graph represents the P/e difference between the CNXMCAP P/e &
NIFTY P/e over the last 12 years. The MidCaps had a great rally when the diff. in
P/e reached 6 from Minus 7.7. After Jan 08 crash, this difference has largely
remained in the negative territory. We have utilize this as an opportunity.
Private & Confidential
Recommended
Click toAggressive
edit the Basket
title text format
Symbol Sector Cost CMP % Gain Loss % Holding Mkt Cap Market Cap % Allocation
TATAMOTORS AUTOMOBILES 341 300 -12.2% 6.6% 91524 Large Cap 36.9%
IGARASHI AUTOMOBILES 317 380 19.9% 9.3% 1544 Mid Cap 63.1%
LT CAPITAL GOODS 1650 1076 -34.8% 5.0% 105984
PRAJIND CAPITAL GOODS 64 72 12.1% 8.7% 1408 Sector % Allocation
WABAG CAPITAL GOODS 813 449 -44.7% 4.3% 2415 AUTOMOBILES 15.9%
SBIN FINANCIALS 184 159 -13.9% 4.9% 140390 CAPITAL GOODS 18.0%
ICICIBANK FINANCIALS 338 190 -43.8% 4.7% 127999 FINANCIALS 16.7%
LICHSGFIN FINANCIALS 462 422 -8.7% 7.1% 22801 OIL & GAS 8.6%
IOC OIL & GAS 427 368 -13.8% 8.6% 94338 PHARMA 7.6%
SYNGENE PHARMA 383 396 3.2% 7.6% 7880 POWER 10.1%
APARINDS POWER 343 416 21.3% 10.1% 1731 TECHNOLOGY 6.6%
NIITTECH TECHNOLOGY 446 420 -5.9% 6.6% 2839 TEXTILES 12.3%
RSWM TEXTILES 305 271 -11.1% 5.9% 634 TRAVEL 4.2%
ARVIND TEXTILES 307 239 -22.3% 6.5% 6816
COX&KINGS TRAVEL 223 147 -33.8% 4.2% 2730
Total 480419 420559 100% Total 100.0%
CMP as on 29th Feb 2016 Monthly Returns
Inception 18th Aggressive NIFTY
NIFTY 50
Feb 2015 Basket MIDCAP 100
28/02/2015 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
31/03/2015 -3.1% -4.6% -0.9%
30/04/2015 -3.5% -3.6% -2.4%
29/05/2015 5.3% 3.1% 3.9%
Note: Returns shown
30/06/2015 4.9% -0.8% -1.3%
are pre cost, including
31/07/2015 8.7% 2.0% 5.5%
dividends and adjusted
31/08/2015 -9.6% -6.6% -4.9%
for gain/loss on the
30/09/2015 -1.8% -0.3% -0.6%
stock replacement
30/10/2015 4.3% 1.5% 2.0%
done.
30/11/2015 2.6% -1.6% 0.1%
31/12/2015 1.7% 0.1% 1.1%
29/01/2016 -5.9% -4.8% -6.9%
29/02/2016 -18.9% -7.6% -7.3%
Since Inception -14.6% -20.7% -11.6%
Private & Confidential
Tata Motors
ClickLtd. CMP 317
to edit the title text format
Nov-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
May-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Feb-16
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
EPS 30.7 43.0 43.0 33.7 48.4
Source: Anand Rathi Research, Bloomberg, Ace equity
Nov-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
May-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Feb-16
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
EPS 10.5 15.2 16.0 18.8 23.0
Source: Anand Rathi Research, Bloomberg, Ace equity
Larsen and Toubro (LT) is India's largest E&C Company. Larsen has made
significant investments in defence, shipbuilding and power, over the last 4-5 SECTOR CAPITAL GOODS
years. Larsen has also expanded into new geographies like Saudi Arabia and
Qatar. Most of these businesses are highly capital intensive, which shall fetch NSE Symbol BSE Code Bloomberg
revenues in the coming years. LT 500510 LT IN
In Q3FY16 Consolidated operational performance of L&T was lower than CMP Market Cap (cr) Equity (cr)
expectation impacted by weak execution under the heavy engineering (27% 1138 105984 186
drop YoY) and metallurgical (17% decline YoY), however supported by
EPS (TTM) BV FV
overseas project execution, power segment grew 21% and infrastructure
posted 37% increase in revenue. 50.5 464.4 2
The company has a pipeline of Rs 2 lakh crore for 4QFY16. Company expects P/E P/BV Div Yield
to reach order inflow equivalent to last year full year numbers. This implies a 22.5 2.5 1.43
huge Rs 60,000 crs plus of order inflow for 4QFY16. Orders from defence 52 Week H 52 Week L Avg Vol ('000)
sector would start trickling down from FY17 and revenues for the same would 1893.8 1016.05 675.7
be booked from FY18.
LTT continues to be the best play in the Indian infrastructure space, given its Share Holding Pattern Group
strong business model, diverse skill sets, strong execution capabilities and Promoter 0
relatively healthy/large balance sheet. Others 100
Nov-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
May-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Feb-16
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
EPS 56.4 52.9 51.3 47.1 58.2
Source: Anand Rathi Research, Bloomberg, Ace equity
Nov-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
May-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Feb-16
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
EPS 3.8 3.1 4.3 3.8 5.1
Source: Anand Rathi Research, Bloomberg, Ace equity
Nov-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
May-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Feb-16
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
EPS 17.0 21.3 20.3 20.4 26.4
Source: Anand Rathi Research, Bloomberg, Ace equity
Pharmaceutical companies have been facing stiff issues relating to patent cliff
and rising R&D costs. There is a large opportunity awaiting the global CRO SECTOR PHARMA
and CRAMS sectors where companies like Syngene, an integrated endto-end
discovery & development service provider for novel molecular entities NSE Symbol BSE Code Bloomberg
(NMEs) across the range of industrial sectors likely to benefit the most. SYNGENE 539268 SYNG IN
In Q3FY16 revenue grew by 23% y-o-y to Rs. 275 cr. EBITDA grew by 22% at CMP Market Cap (cr) Equity (cr)
Rs. 88.7 cr y-o-y, with margins maintained at 32.2%. PAT grew by 31% at Rs. 394 7880 200
58.8 cr y-o-y on account of better EBITDA growth coupled with lower finance
cost. The company cleared a USFDA audit for its clinical development facility. EPS (TTM) BV FV
8.8 50.3 10
Syngene client base has increased from 103 in FY12 to 221 in FY15 across
sectors. It enjoys multiyear, multi disciplinary partnership with some of the P/E P/BV Div Yield
most respected research focused companies like Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., 45.0 7.8 1.45
Abbott laboratories (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. and Baxter International Inc., among 52 Week H 52 Week L Avg Vol ('000)
others. 436 295 63.3
Company to benefit from (1) Large and growing addressable market 2)
Flexible Business Models 3)Customer engagement with dedicated center Share Holding Pattern Group
model and tailored service offering 4) Moving from CRO to CRAMS with Promoter 74.55
commercial manufacturing 5) World Class Infrastructure and Qualified Pool Others 25.45
of Scientists 6) Attractive Blue Chip Customer Base..
Syngene International Ltd. Figures INR crore NIFTY MIDCAP 100
FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 E FY 17 E 125
120 Syngene International
Net Sales 550 700 860 1,100 1,409 115 Ltd.
EBIDTA 164 214 281 348 445 110
105
EBIDTA Margin 29.8% 30.5% 32.7% 31.7% 31.6% 100
95
PAT 98 134 175 211 274 90
85
PAT Margin 17.7% 19.1% 20.4% 19.2% 19.5% 80
Nov-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
EPS 5.3 7.2 8.8 10.6 13.8
Source: Anand Rathi Research, Bloomberg, Ace equity
Nov-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
May-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Feb-16
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
BV 177 188 206 223 243
Source: Anand Rathi Research, Bloomberg, Ace equity
Nov-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
May-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Feb-16
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
BV 115 126 138 154 170
Source: Anand Rathi Research, Bloomberg, Ace equity
LIC Housing Finance (LICHF) is a proxy player of India Housing Sector Growth
with a consistent performer on all fronts and operates on a distribution SECTOR FINANCIALS
network business model.
NSE Symbol BSE Code Bloomberg
Apart from wide marketing network comprising Direct Selling Agents (DSAs),
Home Loan Agents (HLAs) and Customer Relationship Associates (CRAs), a LICHSGFIN 500253 LICHF IN
wholly owned subsidiary LICHF Financial Services (LICHFLFS) also distributes CMP Market Cap (cr) Equity (cr)
the companys product. 452 22801 101
In Q3FY16 LICHF reported 22% YoY growth in net earnings. NII growth stood
EPS (TTM) BV FV
at 36% YoY adversely impacted by rising trend in prepayments. Incremental
31.5 179.0 2
spread however improved further to 2.1% vs portfolio spread of 1.57%. Asset
quality reported stable trends with Net NPLs increasing by modest 3% QoQ P/E P/BV Div Yield
thus leading to 164bp QoQ decline in coverage ratio to 45%. 14.3 2.5 1.11
Going forward, the key to margin improvement is (a) higher incremental 52 Week H 52 Week L Avg Vol ('000)
spreads (b) Replacement of high cost bank borrowing with lower cost NCDs 523.95 388.65 335.8
and (c) increase in the share of LAP and corporate loan portfolio.
Increase in demand in rural expected backed by housing for all scheme of Share Holding Pattern Group
government. Its end user segment demand to pick up further. Promoter 40.31
Others 59.69
LIC Housing Finance Ltd. Figures INR crore
FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 E FY 17 E NIFTY 50
Nov-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
May-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Feb-16
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
BV 130 150 155 182 216
Source: Anand Rathi Research, Bloomberg, Ace equity
Private & Confidential
Indian Oil Corporation
Click Ltd title text format
to edit the CMP 389
IOC has the most diversified business model, while its annuity pipeline
business contributes ~20% to EBITDA, ~8% comes from the growing SECTOR OIL & GAS
petchem and ~50% from the buzzing marketing business. With diesel
accounting for ~50% of volumes, IOC is well placed to gain from marketing NSE Symbol BSE Code Bloomberg
margin expansion. IOC 530965 IOCL IN
IOC bottom line would get a boost of 20-30% after its 15 million tonne per CMP Market Cap (cr) Equity (cr)
annum (mtpa) greenfield project in Odisha is fully commissioned by FY18. 389 94338 2428
This (Paradip) refinery would contribute nearly 20-30% to the companys
EPS (TTM) BV FV
profit and would offer one of the best refiining margins, hgher by $6-7 a
barrel over the average refining margin $10-12. The refinery puts IOC in 63.6 315.6 10
advantage as it is is equipped to produce low emission BS IV compliant P/E P/BV Div Yield
motor fuel , as country goes for stricter regulation on pollution front. It can 6.1 1.2 1.70
also produce BS VI compliant automobile fuel with the addition of few
52 Week H 52 Week L Avg Vol ('000)
equipment putting on advantageous situation with government setting
465.9 323.4 396.2
deadline for switching over BS VI norms by 2020.
With the fall in Crude prices, the GRMs are likley to improve. There could be Share Holding Pattern Group
inventory loss due to fall in crude , however once the crude stabilizes and Promoter 58.57
starts to reverse we could see the improvement in profitability of the Others 41.43
company.
Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. Figures INR crore NIFTY 50
FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 E FY 17 E 150
140 Indian Oil Corporation
Net Sales 462,084 488,793 450,079 382,834 419,371 Ltd.
130
EBIDTA 13,773 17,039 9,183 23,214 25,560 120
EBIDTA Margin 3.0% 3.5% 2.0% 6.1% 6.1% 110
PAT 3,627 6,967 4,872 11,062 12,353 100
90
PAT Margin 0.8% 1.4% 1.1% 2.9% 2.9% 80
Nov-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
May-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Feb-16
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
EPS 18.3 29.2 20.2 45.4 50.7
Source: Anand Rathi Research, Bloomberg, Ace equity
Nov-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
May-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Feb-16
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
EPS 28.5 23.3 12.9 22.8 49.9
Source: Anand Rathi Research, Bloomberg, Ace equity
Nov-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
May-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Feb-16
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
EPS 35.4 38.0 18.7 22.8 49.9
Source: Anand Rathi Research, Bloomberg, Ace equity
Arvind offers a good mix of export and domestic consumption growth. Its
textiles business will benefit from a recovery in the developed markets and SECTOR TEXTILES
improving competitiveness, while its brands and expanding retail network will
benefit from secular growth in Indias organized apparel market. NSE Symbol BSE Code Bloomberg
In Q3FY16 Arvind has reported a modest growth in revenue at 4%, EBIDTA ARVIND 500101 ARVND IN
was lower by 3% led by fall in margin by 86bps to 13.02%. PAT was lower by CMP Market Cap (cr) Equity (cr)
6%. Textile growth was flat due to lower denim volumes, However, Brand and 264 6816 258
Retail has registered a growth of 12%
EPS (TTM) BV FV
The management has guided for 4QFY16 blended revenue growth of 9-10%,
led by 28-29% growth in brands and retail business and 2-3% growth in 11.6 99.8 10
textiles business. They expect textiles to grow by 7-8% and brands and retail P/E P/BV Div Yield
to grow by 18-20% in FY17. Brands in 4-5 years should garner 16-17% margins 22.7 2.6 0.97
with specialty retail garnering 10-12%. 52 Week H 52 Week L Avg Vol ('000)
Brands and retail on secular growth Arvinds leading position in menswear 365.7 216.3 264.1
and its track record of growing licensed brands like Arrow and Tommy Hilfiger
etc. will enable it to exploit opportunities in the branded apparel space. Share Holding Pattern Group
With focus on more value-accretive brands and retail business by change in Promoter 43.78
revenue mix, capex intensity in the business will reduce going forward. This Others 56.22
will further aide in improvement in margins .
Arvind Ltd. Figures INR crore
NIFTY MIDCAP 100
FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 E FY 17 E 125
120
Net Sales 5,388 6,948 7,815 8,936 10,300 Arvind Ltd.
115
EBIDTA 687 934 1,004 1,214 1,411 110
105
EBIDTA Margin 12.8% 13.4% 12.9% 13.6% 13.7% 100
95
PAT 248 353 338 458 558 90
85
PAT Margin 4.6% 5.1% 4.3% 5.1% 5.4% 80
Nov-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
May-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Feb-16
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
EPS 9.6 13.7 13.2 17.9 21.8
Source: Anand Rathi Research, Bloomberg, Ace equity
Nov-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
May-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Feb-16
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
EPS 31.0 43.5 36.7 51.8 63.0
Source: Anand Rathi Research, Bloomberg, Ace equity
Nov-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
May-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Feb-16
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
EPS 18.2 28.1 5.4 23.9 30.2
Source: Anand Rathi Research, Bloomberg, Ace equity
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2014
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Continued
Contd.
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