Battery Market Development for

Consumer Electronics, Automotive,

and Industrial: Materials
Requirements and Trends
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
Christophe PILLOT
June 15-18, Xining, China Director, AVICENNE ENERGY

Presentation Outline
The rechargeable battery market in 2014
The Li-ion battery value chain
Li-ion battery material market 2014 - 2025
Christophe PILLOT Forecasts & conclusions
c.pillot@avicenne.com
+33(0)1 4778 4600
 AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO
HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS
HEV powered by Lithium ion battery EV sold, in million units, worldwide,
forecasts from 2008 to 2014 2010 - 2020
IIT 2007 5 IIT (MARCH 2011)
2,5
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)
Industrial: Materials 2 4
IIT 2008

Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million)

Requirements and
Trends
Million HEV powered by LIB

1,5 IIT 2009 3

IIT (MARCH 2010)

IIT 2010
1 2
ROLAND BERGER (2011)

Qinghai EV Rally 2015 REALITY

ROLAND BERGER (2012)
0,5 AVICENNE 2007 1 AVICENNE 2007-2012
June 15-18,
Xining, China AAB (2012)

0
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2015 2020
Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011
c.pillot@avicenne.com
2
 THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY
DYNAMIC
Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) Portable PC sold per Year (Million)
2000 500
Li-ion

Million Units / year

Li-ion

Million Units/Year
400
1500 NiMH
Battery Market
300 230 M
Development for
1000 Tablets
Consumer Electronics,
200
Automotive, and
500 170 M
Industrial: Materials 100 Portable
Requirements and
Trends PCs
0 0
2000 2014 2000 2014

Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)
120000
3
100000
Tons of cathode / Year

2,5
80000 2

$/Wh
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 60000 1,5

June 15-18, 40000 1

Xining, China
20000 0,5

0 0
2000 2014 2000 2014
Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015
c.pillot@avicenne.com
3
 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2015
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry
investments

Battery Market 70 000

Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and 60 000
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends 50 000 Others (Flow battery,
NAS, )
40 000 Li-ion
MWh

30 000 NiMH

20 000 NiCD
Qinghai EV Rally 2015

June 15-18, 10 000

Xining, China

0
1990 2000 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015
Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015 2015: Estimations
c.pillot@avicenne.com
4
 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2015
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments
Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)
400 000 450 000
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics, 350 000 400 000
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials 350 000
Requirements and 300 000
Trends Others (Flow battery,
NAS, ) 300 000
250 000
Li-ion
250 000

MWh
MWh

200 000
NiMH 200 000
150 000
NiCD 150 000
100 000
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 Lead Acid 100 000

June 15-18, 50 000

50 000
Xining, China
0 0
2012
1990
2000
2010

2013
2014
2015

2013
1990
2000
2010
2012

2014
2015
Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015 2015: Estimations
c.pillot@avicenne.com
5
 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2015
60 BILLION US$ in 2014 Pack level1
5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2014)
70 70

Battery Market 60 60
Development for Others (Flow
Consumer Electronics, battery, NAS, ) 50 OTHERS
50
Automotive, and Li-ion AUTOMOTIVE

Billion US$
Industrial: Materials
Billion US $

40 40
Requirements and INDUSTRIAL
NiMH
Trends 30 E-BIKES
30
POWER TOOLS
NiCD 20
20 PORTABLE
Lead Acid 10 SLI
10

0 0

2013
1990
2000
2005
2010

2014
2015
2010
1990
2000
2005

2013
2014
2015

SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, ), data collection & handy terminals,
POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools
June 15-18, INDUSTRIAL
MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others
Xining, China
STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator
Starting, Control & Switchgear,
AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV
OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen
Christophe PILLOT concentrators
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors) not included
c.pillot@avicenne.com Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015 2015: Estimations 6
 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
IN 2014: US $ 60 BILLION
Battery market in 2014 (M$)
Others 70 000 18 000
SLI Other Applications
Battery Market Automotive Marine
Development for 16 000
Portable 60 000
Consumer Electronics, Medical devices
Automotive, and Other Applications
Industrial: Materials Marine 14 000 Wheelchair
Requirements and Medical devices 50 000
Trends Medical Cart
Wheelchair SLI 12 000
Medical Cart Other Stationary

Other Stationary 40 000 Seismic

10 000
Seismic
US $ 20 ESS
ESS Automotive Billion for
Other Stand-by other 8 000 Other Stand-by
30 000
UPS applications
UPS
Portable
Telecom 6 000
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 Other Motive 20 000
Telecom

Forklift Other Motive

June 15-18, 4 000
Power Tools
Xining, China Forklift
E-Bikes 10 000
2 000 Power Tools

E-Bikes
Christophe PILLOT 0 0
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 Lead Acid LIB
c.pillot@avicenne.com 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors) not included 7
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015
 LI-ION IN 2014
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
5 400 M cells 46 000 MWh CAGR 2004/2014
13 600 M$ (2) +21 % per year in Volume
+14% per year in value
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics, Li-ion Battery sales, Li-ion Battery sales,
Automotive, and MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1) MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and 60 000
40 000
Trends
50 000 35 000
30 000
40 000
25 000
M Wh

30 000

M Wh
20 000

20 000 15 000
10 000
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 10 000
5 000
June 15-18, - -
2011
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

2012
2013
2014
2015

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Xining, China

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others Tablets Power Tools Camcorders

Digital Camera Video Games MP3
Toys Auto Household devices
Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 (1) 2015 estimation data E-bikes Others
c.pillot@avicenne.com (2) Cell level
8
 LI-ION IN 2014
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
5 250 M cells 45 000 MWh CAGR 2004/2014
13 300 M$ (2) +20 % per year in Volume
+14% per year in value
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics, Li-ion Battery sales, Li-ion Battery sales,
Automotive, and M$, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)
Industrial: Materials
M$, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)
Requirements and 16 000 12000
Trends
14 000
10000
12 000
8000
10 000
M$

M$
8 000 6000
6 000
4000
4 000
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
2000
2 000
June 15-18,
Xining, China - 0
2009

2013
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

2010
2011
2012

2014
2015

2012
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

2013
2014
2015
Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others Automotives Tablets Power tools
Christophe PILLOT Camcorders Digital camera MP3
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
(1) 2015 estimation data Games E-Bikes Others
c.pillot@avicenne.com
9
(2) Cell level
 BATTERY PRICE IS DECREASING
DRASTICALLY
In 10 Years 80% price decreasing Average LIB cell price ($/Wh)
despite a fluctuating Co price
1,00

Battery Market 0,80

Development for 0,60
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and 0,40
Industrial: Materials 0,20
Requirements and
Trends 0,00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Cylindrical Prismatic Laminate
Note- Q4 2014: Cylindrical: 0,17 $/Wh ; Laminates: 0,3$/Wh

Production capacity 2009/2011: 18650 oversupply ratio is

from 150 to 250 M cells/month decreasing thanks to TESLA
BAK 3 000 50%
300
ATL 2 500
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 40%

Over supply Ratio

250

M cells /Year
Lishen
M cells /month

2 000
200 E-One 30%
June 15-18, 1 500
150 LG
Xining, China 1 000
20%
100 SDI
500 10%
50 MAXELL
SONY - 0%
0
1Q 09
2Q 09
3Q09
4Q 09
1Q 10
2Q 10
3Q10
4Q 10
1Q 11
2Q 11
3Q11
4Q 11

PANASONIC
Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 SANYO
Standard Demand TESLA
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Production Capacity Oversupply ratio 10
 LI-ION VALUE CHAIN MARKET DEMAND
CATHODE
105 OOO T in 2014
Revenues: 2,5 B$
CAGR 04/14: +16%
CELL PACK
ANODE MANUFACTURERS MANUFACTURERS
57 000 T
Battery Market Revenues: 0,8 B$ Revenues: Revenues:
Development for CAGR 03/13: +14% 13,6 B$ 19,6 B$
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and Gross margin: Gross margin:
Industrial: Materials ELECTROLYTE <10% <10%
Requirements and 44 000 T
Trends Revenues: 0,68 B$
CAGR 04/14 : 20%

SEPARATOR
695 M m
Revenues: 1,15 B$
CAGR 04/14 : 18%

BINDER
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 7 100 Tons
Revenues: 0,2 B$
June 15-18, CAGR 08/13 : 15%
Xining, China
ANCILLARY

Revenues: 0,7 B$
Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
11
 CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS
BY CHEMISTRY SUPPLY
LCO >45 KT (2014) NMC1 > 35 KT (2014)
Cathode active materials for LIB PULEAD
Internal NKS Nichia
in Tons, 2000-2014 (Demand) Shan
Shan
9%
2% Nichia
SUMITOMO
16%
4% 11%
12%
9%
120 000 Others TODA
3% 4%
Battery Market Umicore
15%
Umicore
Development for Other China
8%
24%

Consumer Electronics, 100 000 Other L&F B&M

Reshine
China 14% 7% Others
Automotive, and 13%
3%
5%
Easpring ShanShan
Industrial: Materials Reshine
6% 8% L&F Internal
80 000 10% 6% 11%
Requirements and 1- Including NCA
LFP
Trends
Tons

60 000 LMO LMO > 18 KT (2014) LFP > 10 KT (2014)

NCA
Qiannyun Nichia Corp Others
40 000 NMC 15% 7% 21%
Yuan Yuan INTERNAL
LCO 4% Chinese 29%
Others local BTR
26%
20 000 6% 2%
Reshine Zhuoneng
8% 6%
CLARIANT
Pulead
- Shan Shan Nippon
13%
8%
9% ALEEES
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 denko
2004

2014
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

JGC
8% STL 10%
17%
11%

June 15-18,
LEADERS: NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:
Xining, China

Christophe PILLOT ()
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
12
 CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL
FORECASTS 2000-2025
Cathode active materials Cathode active materials in
2000-2025 - Tons 2014: > 100 000 Tons
LFP
350 000 80% 10%
Battery Market
Development for 300 000 70%
LCO
Consumer Electronics, 60% 36%
250 000 LMO
Automotive, and
50% 20%
Industrial: Materials 200 000
Tons

Requirements and 40% NMC

Trends 150 000 NCA
30%
25%
9%
100 000
20%
50 000 10% Cathode active materials in
- 0% 2025: > 300 000 Tons
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
LCO NMC NCA LFP
26%
LMO LFP China (%) LCO
ASSUMPTIONS: 26%
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 Portable devices:
2013-2025: +11% per year in volume
HEV LMO
June 15-18, 4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB NMC
9%
Xining, China 6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB NCA
25%
P-HEV 14%
0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 0,7 M in 2025
100% LIB Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success
EV (200 000 EV sold per year in 2025 TESLA forecast 500 000)
Christophe PILLOT 1M EV/year in 2020, 1,5M/year in 2025
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 100% LIB LFP part could be higher thanks to explosion of Chinese EV market
c.pillot@avicenne.com Industrial & stationary
13
2013-2025: +16% per year
 ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS
> 55 000 TONS IN 2014
LIB Anode Materials

Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends

Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007 Source: Hitachi Chemical

LIB Anode Materials LIB Anode market, (Tons)

60000
LTO
1,2
50000
1,0 Si or Sn Type
40000
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 0,8

Tons
30000 Amorphous Carbon
0,6
June 15-18, 20000
Xining, China 0,4 Meso-Phase
10000
0,2
0 Artificial Graphite
0,0

2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Natural Graphite
Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: Sanyo, March 2011
c.pillot@avicenne.com
14
 ANODE FOR LIB IN 2014
Natural graphite become a commodity
Others
TOSHIBA Hard Soft Graphite
A123 Carbon Carbon
BAK ARTIFICIAL
Capacity 400 mAh/g 250 mAh/g 325-375
ATL MCMB (/g) mAh/g
Battery Market Maxell
NATURAL
Development for Lishen Capacity
++ 0 +
Consumer Electronics, Amorphous (/cc)
BYD
Automotive, and LGC Power ++ + 0
METAL
Industrial: Materials SDI
Requirements and PANASONIC
LTO Stability ++ + 0
Trends SONY Cyclability ++ + 0
Source: Hitachi Chemical
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Precursors Petroleum Petroleum Natural or
Pitch, Resin, coke petroleum
Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2014) cellulose, coke
MCMB wood,
Artificial 2% coconuts
Graphite Amorphous COST 30 -> 25 25->20 15 -> 10
24% 5% 2012- $/kg $/kg $/kg
Natural Si or Sn Type >2020
Graphite 1%
SUPPLIERS KUREHA HITACHI HITACHI
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 67% LTO BTR
1% & many
June 15-18, others
Xining, China Note: MCMB: Mesocarbon Microbeads

LEADERS: NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:

Christophe PILLOT ()
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
15
 SEPARATOR MARKET
MAJOR PLAYERS
In February 2015, ASAHI announced that they will acquire all Polypore shares in the Energy
Storage segment: Asahi Kasei to pay around $2.2billion to purchase Polypores battery
separator business

Separator market in volume (Mm) Separators market shares in 2014 in

by suppliers CAGR 04/14: +16% volume > 650 M m
Battery Market 800
Development for
SK
Consumer Electronics, 700 SUMITOMO
ENTEK
12% Jinhui TDK
Automotive, and 3% 2% 2%
5%
Industrial: Materials 600 Senior Fengfan
Requirements and Green 1%
Trends 500 Jinhui TONEN
Sumitomo 21% Other Wet
Mm

SK 3%
400
UBE
CELGARD
300 TORAY 11%

200 UBE
CELGARD ASAHI 5%
25% Green
100
ASAHI Senior 3%
- Other Dry 4%
3%
Qinghai EV Rally 2015

June 15-18, LEADERS: NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:

Xining, China

Christophe PILLOT Evonik, TEIJIN,

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com HIFUTURE, UBE-MAXELL ()
16
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
 ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS
44 000 TONS IN 2014
LIB electrolyte market, Tons, LIB electrolyte supplier, market
CAGR 2004/2014: +23% share in 2014
50000
Battery Market Others UBE Mitsubishi
45000 Tinci
4% 4% Chem
Development for Soulbrain 6%
40000 13%
Consumer Electronics, 5%
Automotive, and 35000
Industrial: Materials 30000 ShanShan
Requirements and
Tons

25000 8%
Trends In-house
20000
9%
15000 Cap Chem
Tomiyama
10000 15%
3%
5000
Jinniu PANAX-ETEC
0 GTHR 8%
8% 14%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Cellular Portable PC Tablets Mitsui
Power tools E-bikes HEV 3%
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 PHEV EV Others
LEADERS: NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:
June 15-18,
Xining, China

JINNIU
Zhangjiagang
Guotai-Huang
Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Note: (1) GTHR: Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong 17
 LIB ELECTROLYTE MARKET 2005-2014
Electrolyte maker sales 2005-2014

7 000
GTHR

6 000 Capchem
Battery Market Mitsubishi
Development for
5 000 PANAX (2)
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials 4 000 In-House
Requirements and
Trends Jinniu
Tons

Shanshan
3 000

2 000 Soulbrain
Ube
Mitsui
1 000 Tomiyama

BASF (Merck, Novolyte)

-
Qinghai EV Rally 2015

2012
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2013

2014
June 15-18,
Ube Mitsubishi In-House
Xining, China
Tomiyama PANAX-ETEC Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong
Mitsui BASF (Merck, Novolyte) Jinniu
Capchem Shanshan Soulbrain
Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 (1) Full electrolyte formulation in-house (2) Panax-Etec bought Samsung Chiel activities in 2010
c.pillot@avicenne.com
18
 Cyl.
25%

CELLULAR PHONES Lam.

50%
Pris.
FORECASTS 2010-2025 25%
LIB cell format
(Volume) 2014

Cellular phones demand (M Units) Cellular Phones market Drivers

CAGR 2010-2025: +6%
OTHERS
Battery Market
4 000 Emergent market
INDIA
Development for 3 000
ASIA Renewal ratio increase
Consumer Electronics, CHINA
2 000
Automotive, and Smartphone penetration increase
JAPAN
Industrial: Materials 1 000
Requirements and EUROPE
Trends - USA

LIB cells demand 2014-2025

Polymer penetration: 50% -> 75%
100%
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 80%
LIB cells for cellular phones
60%
June 15-18, 40%
Polymer trends
Xining, China Prismatic
20% Laminates ratio increase
0% Increase of Thickness
Increase of >1400 mAh capacity
Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
c.pillot@avicenne.com
19
 Lam.
19%

PORTABLE PCS Pris.

1%
Cyl.
80%
FORECASTS 2010-2025 LIB cell format
(Volume) 2014

Portable PCs demand (M Units) Portable PCs market trends

2014-2025 Almost stable
250 Mature market stable or decreasing
Battery Market
Development for
200 Growth driven by Emerging market
Consumer Electronics, 150 Ultrabook is increasing (20(1) to 60% in
Automotive, and 100 Emerging
2013(2))
Industrial: Materials Mature
50
Requirements and ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs
Trends 0
increase from 25% in 2010 to 33% in 2012

Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy (1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel

LIB cells demand 2014-2025 LIB cells for portable PCs trends
Polymer penetration: 20% -> 40%
100% Thinner cells
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 80%
Polymer penetration increasing from
60%
June 15-18,
Laminate 7% in 2010 to 28% in 2025
40% Prismatic
Xining, China > 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate
20% Cylindrical
0% 2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market

Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
c.pillot@avicenne.com
20
 2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE
ELECTRONIC DEVICES
2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by 2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,
application (3C) by form factor (3C)
CAGR 14-25: + 10%
Battery Market 70000 7000
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and 60000 Others 6000
Industrial: Materials Household
Requirements and
Trends 50000 Toys 5000

MP3

M cells/year
4000
40000 Video Games
MWh

Digital Camera
3000
30000 Camcorders
Cordless Phones 2000
20000 Tablets
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 Portable PCs 1000

10000 Cellular Phones

June 15-18,
Xining, China 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
0 Li-P
2020
2000
2005
2010
2013
2014
2015

2025

Li-ion Pr
Li-ion Cyl
Christophe PILLOT Takeshita - March 2013 (1)
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference
Slide p 4 21
 WHY X-EV ?
MAJOR DRIVER: CO2 regulation Price of the WTI1 barrel of oil,
US $
worldwide: From 2013 to 2014 120 4

Oil price decrease but HEV sales 100

3,5
3
increase by 5%, P-HEV by 30%

Crude Oil Price - US $ / Barrel

Gasoline Price US$ / Gallon

80
2,5
Battery Market and EV by 60%
60 2
Development for 190
Consumer Electronics, 40
1,5
Automotive, and 1
180
Industrial: Materials 20
Requirements and 0,5
Trends 170
0 0

1973
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
160
Source:
CO2 Emission (g/km)

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html
150

140 Petroleum consumption worldwide

1960-2030
130
Million barrel per day
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 120 150

100
June 15-18, 110
50
Xining, China
100 0

90
Source: Energy Information Administration, US
Christophe PILLOT 2012 2015 2020
Government
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 Europe USA Japan China
c.pillot@avicenne.com Note
1 WTI: West Texas Intermediate 22
 Growth 2013-2014: +5%
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2014 From 1,9 M to 2 M HEV

2 M HEV
HEV sold per year, M units, Penetration of hybrids in the
worldwide, 2000 - 2014 global sales, 2000-2014
Battery Market 2,5 30%
Million

Development for TOYOTA OTHERS

Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and

Penetration of hybrids in the globale sales

Industrial: Materials 25%
2,0
Requirements and
Trends
20%
JAPON
1,5

15%

1,0
10%

Qinghai EV Rally 2015

0,5
5%
June 15-18, USA
Xining, China
EUROPE
0,0 0%

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY
c.pillot@avicenne.com Micro hybrid not included
23
 P-HEV & EV SALES 2010-2014 (YEARLY)
CHINE Others OTHERS
5% 7% 7% US
25%

US EV sales CHINA
P-HEV sales EUROPE
41% 31%
22% JAPAN
11%
JAPON EUROPE
25% 26%
Battery Market
Development for 250000
250 000
Consumer Electronics, Others
Automotive, and CHINA
Industrial: Materials Others +58%
Requirements and VW
200000 200 000
Trends BMW

Volvo Honda
+28% Toyota
150000 150 000
Tesla
Mitsubishi
Renault
Smart
100000 100 000
Ford Ford
MITSUBISHI
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
NISSAN
50000 Toyota 50 000
June 15-18,
Xining, China
GM Volt,
0 Ampera 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
c.pillot@avicenne.com
24
 LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS
2009-2015
10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >50 GWh invest from 2011 to 2014)
< 7 B$ invested from 2014 to 2017 by TESLA (5), BYD (1,2), ATL (1)

Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing

Battery Market ATL (2014 - 2017)
Development for BYD (2013 - 2015)
Consumer Electronics, TESLA (2014-2017)

Automotive, and LiTec GmbH

Industrial: Materials Panasonic EV
SK Energy
Requirements and Mitsubishi H.I.
Trends NEC Tokin
AESC Japon
Hitachi Vehicle Energy 2014 2017
SAFT TESLA, ATL, BYD TESLA Plant, Nevada, Feb 2015
SAFT US
BAK
Investments:
Lishen 150 $ / kWh
Nissan-Renault (Port)
Blue Energy
Toshiba
Nissan - Renault (UK)
LG Chem
Rusnano-Thunder Sky
Lithium Energy Japan
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 Hitachi Vehicle Energy
SB Limotive
GS YUASA
June 15-18, Dow Kokam
Nissan-Renault (Fr)
Xining, China Ener1 Average 2012-2014
Sanyo
A123 Investments:
JCI 250 $ / kWh
LG Chem
BYD
Christophe PILLOT Sony
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 NISSAN Motor US M$
PANASONIC TESLA GIGA FACTORY, Feb 2015
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015 25
0 2000 4000 6000
 SAFETY ISSUES
Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious
safety concerns
In the 80s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further

Background
development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High
Battery Market chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the
Development for charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The
growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.
Consumer Electronics,
CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled
Automotive, and their projects
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid
Trends electrolyte.
Mobile

In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction
starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (Thermal runaway)
CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of
400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date

With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety
Automotive

concerns:
(1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode
(2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a
crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !)
(3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 without any authorisation by Toyota)

June 15-18, Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused
Xining, China by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to
Aircraft

melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the planes shell.
CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.

Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
26
 SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION
CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES

Some technologies are already out of the game due to

stability issues
Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends

Qinghai EV Rally 2015

June 15-18,
Xining, China

Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
27
 TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS
IN LIB INDUSTRY

Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends

Qinghai EV Rally 2015

June 15-18,
Xining, China

Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
28
 BATTERY & POWER ELEC. COST IN EV
8,250 - 50 - 5,500 -
18,100 300 8,000

HV batt. Pack for EV

8,150 -
15,100

HV batt. CELL
for EV

Battery Market
100 -
Development for 400 50 - 1,000 -
400 2,500
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials 1,500 -
3,000
Requirements and
Trends
150 - 150 -
250 350 300 -
500 900 -
1,250
150 -
350

Overall HV Cooling Batt. Charger Inverter

battery Syst Packaging Rectifier
cell Manuf.
LV Packaging Batt. DC/DC Generator HV
battery material Magt converter Inverter Cables &
pack Syst Connectors

12 000
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 10 000 Power Elec

8 000 Pack Manufacturing

June 15-18,
6 000 BMS
Xining, China
4 000 Thermal Mgmt + packaging
2 000 Cell manu
0 Cell
Christophe PILLOT Active Hybrid 5 Volt Bluecar Leaf
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
HEV P-HEV EV
29
AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
 LIB CELL BILL OF MATERIALS

NISSAN LEAF BOLLORE BLUE CAR

Battery Market
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends

GM VOLT BMW ACTIVE HYBRID 5

Qinghai EV Rally 2015

June 15-18,
Xining, China

Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION 30
 LI-ION BATTERY COST
2014-2020
LIB cell average cost (36Ah pouch) LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST
(EV design ; LMO/NMC cathode) FOR EV
600
Battery Market
350
Development for
Consumer Electronics,
Margin
Automotive, and 500
Pack Cost
300
Industrial: Materials Warranty
Requirements and Overheads
Trends 400
250 Sales & Adm Cell
Manufacturing
R&D

$ / kWh
200 Energy, utilities 300 Other
$ / kWh

Materials
Direct labor

150 Depreciation 200 Separator

Others
Separator Electrolyte
100 100
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 Electrolyte

June 15-18, Anode (1) Anode

50 0
Xining, China Cathode (1)

Cell
Cell
Cell
Pack

Pack

Pack
Cathode
0 2014* 2015* 2020*
2014 2015 2020
Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 (1) Active materials only * For Production > 100 000 packs/year
c.pillot@avicenne.com
31
 EV, P-HEV, EV 2025 FORECASTS
Scenario 2: thanks to very high incentives, China could
change the game

S1: HEV, P-HEV & EV market S2: HEV, P-HEV & EV market
Battery Market forecasts up to 2025 forecasts up to 2025
Development for
Consumer Electronics, 10
10
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials 9
9 1,5
Requirements and
Trends 8
8
1
7 0,3
7
EV in China
1,5 1,1
6
6 P-HEV in China

Million cars
Million cars

1 0,62
0,65 EV HEV in China
5
5
P-HEV EV
1 HEV 4 0,75
4 P-HEV
0,38
0,4 HEV
3
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 3
0,35 0,27 5
5 0,16
0,25 0,17 2 0,17
0,13
June 15-18, 2 0,135
3,2
3,2
Xining, China 1 2,1
1 2 2,2 1,9
0,9
0,9
0
0
2010 2014 2015 2020 2025
2010 2014 2015 2020 2025
Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
32
 TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND
2025 FORECASTS
Scenario 2: thanks to very high incentives, China could change
the game
EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh) Total battery demand (MWh)
Battery Market
Development for CAGR 2014-2025: +16% / S2:+22% CAGR 2014-2025: +11% / S2: +13%
Consumer Electronics, 200000
200 000
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials 180 000 180000
Requirements and
Trends 160 000 160000

140 000 140000

120 000 120000

M Wh
100 000 100000
M Wh

80 000 80000

60 000 60000

Qinghai EV Rally 2015 40 000 40000

June 15-18, 20 000 20000

Xining, China - 0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
NiCd NiMH except Auto
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB except Auto NiMH for HEV
LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV
Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 S2 (China Explosion) LIB for EV S2 EV China Explosion
c.pillot@avicenne.com
33
 35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN
2020
Micro-hybrids car market Micro-hybrid batteries
2010-2020 Powered today by Advanced lead acid batteries
(sometimes in conjunction with super capacitors)
Battery Market
Micro-hybrid car sold per year LTO will also penetrate this market (Toshiba ->
Development for 80 Suzuki)
Consumer Electronics, Panasonic develop new NiMH cell to adress the
Automotive, and micro-hybrid market
Industrial: Materials 70
Requirements and Advantages of micro-hybrid
Trends 60
compare to HEV
AVICENNE
50 Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times
less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline
Optimistic
Million

Scenario
instead of 20% (4 times less)
40
Much more impact on CO2
JD Power
30 Micro-hybrid Full HEV
Valeo Battery Advanced lead NiMH or LIB
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 20 acid

June 15-18, Cost ($) 300 3000

Xining, China 10 Fuel saving 5% 20%
Million Vehicle 35 3.5
0 sold per year in
2010 2015 2020 2020
Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
34
 HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL
BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID
BATTERIES
MICRO MILD FULL
STANDARD CAR EV
HYBRIDS HEV HEV P-HEV
88.5%
10% 0.5% 1%
Battery Market 2010
Development for
Consumer Electronics,

Advanced Lead acid

NiMH
Automotive, and

NiMH batteries

Li-ion batteries
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and

Lead acid
Standard
Batteries
Trends

2015

FULL
STANDARD CAR MICRO HYBRID EV
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 2020 HEV P-HEV
< 44% > 50% 2%
4%
June 15-18,
Xining, China

ULTRA
AFTER BATTERY
Li-ion Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells
Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
35
 OTHER APPLICATIONS
10 B$ POTENTIAL MARKET1
Battery market in 2012 (M$) Battery market in 2020 (M$)
18 000 18000
Other Applications
Battery Market Marine
Development for 16 000 16000
Consumer Electronics, Medical devices
Automotive, and
Wheelchair 14 000 14000
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and Medical Cart
Trends 12 000 12000
Other Stationary

Seismic 10 000 10000

ESS

> US$ 10 B
Other Stand-by 8 000 8000

> US$ 7 B
UPS
6 000 6000
Telecom
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
Other Motive 4 000 4000
June 15-18,
Forklift
Xining, China
2 000 2000
Power Tools

E-Bikes
0 0
Christophe PILLOT Lead Acid LIB Lead Acid LIB
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013 For Power tools, NiCd batteries are used rather than lead acid batteries
36
1- Pack level
 LI-ION CELL & PACK MARKET DETAILS
Portable: from 29 to 65 GWh
2014 -2025 Automotive: from 10 to 60 GWh / S2: 100 GWh
Others: from 7 to 32 GWh
Li-ion cell market (B$) Li-ion Pack market1 (B$)
45 45
Battery Market
Development for 40 40
Consumer Electronics,
Automotive, and
35 35
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Trends 30 30

25 Others (2) 25 Others (2)

Automotive Automotive
20 20
Portable Portable

15 15

10 10
Qinghai EV Rally 2015
5 5
June 15-18,
Xining, China
0 0
2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025

1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors) not included
Christophe PILLOT 2- Others: Batteries for Power tools, E-bikes, Industrial, medical
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 S2: Chinese EV market explosion
c.pillot@avicenne.com
37
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis 2014
 TAKEAWAYS
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY
MARKET WORLDWIDE
Battery Market 2010-2025
2000-2025
CAGR = +10%
Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & 775 GWh
electronic devices (smartphones, tablets)
Battery Market For HEV, the battery technology is today the 575 GWh Others

MWh
Development for NiMH
380 GWh LIB
Consumer Electronics, In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota)
switch to Li-ion 280 GWh NiMH
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: NiCd
Requirements and 6 B$ market in 2015 - 11 B$ in 2020 & 15 B$ in Lead Acid
Trends 2025
EV expectations attract large Chemical
companies 2000 2010 2020 2025
New materials are needed to meet Automotive > 100 B$
standards (Pack level) 4,3
HEV will account for less than 5% of the 83 B$ 14
automotive sales in 2020 64 B$
60B$ 16
P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020 54B$
12
Micro-hybrid will achieve >50%
Lead acid battery will be the first market in 25 B$
Qinghai EV Rally 2015 2025 in volume & value 52
32
A very small EV market in the automotive world
June 15-18, will represent a huge market for batteries
Xining, China 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025
New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-6%)
Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15% NiMH (-6%) LIB for 3C (+1%)
in the next 15 years LIB for xEV (+10%) LIB for Others* (+11%)
In 2020, Energy storage will represent less than Others
Christophe PILLOT 5% of the total battery market (CAGR 2014-2025)
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00 Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS,
c.pillot@avicenne.com Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, 38
 THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT
Battery Market AVICENNE ENERGY
Development for
Consumer Electronics, c.pillot@avicenne.com
Automotive, and
Industrial: Materials
Requirements and
Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00
Trends
Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

Qinghai EV Rally 2015

June 15-18,
Xining, China

Christophe PILLOT
+ 33 1 47 78 46 00
c.pillot@avicenne.com
39