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1.

The time, T minutes, spent each day by students in Amys school sending text messages may be
modelled by a normal distribution.

30% of the students spend less than 10 minutes per day.


35% spend more than 15 minutes per day.

(a) Find the mean and standard deviation of T.


(6)

The number of text messages received by Amy during a fixed time interval may be modelled by
a Poisson distribution with a mean of 6 messages per hour.

(b) Find the probability that Amy will receive exactly 8 messages between 16:00 and 18:00
on a random day.
(3)

(c) Given that Amy has received at least 10 messages between 16:00 and 18:00 on a random
day, find the probability that she received 13 messages during that time.
(5)

(d) During a 5-day week, find the probability that there are exactly 3 days when Amy
receives no messages between 17:45 and 18:00.
(4)
(Total 18 marks)
2. The continuous random variable X has probability density function f (x) where

e ke kx , 0 x 1
fk (x) =
0, otherwise

(a) Show that k = 1.


(3)

(b) What is the probability that the random variable X has a value that lies between
1 and 1 ? Give your answer in terms of e.
4 2
(2)

(c) Find the mean and variance of the distribution. Give your answers exactly, in terms of e.
(6)

The random variable X above represents the lifetime, in years, of a certain type of battery.

(d) Find the probability that a battery lasts more than six months.
(2)

A calculator is fitted with three of these batteries. Each battery fails independently of the other
two. Find the probability that at the end of six months

(e) none of the batteries has failed;


(2)

(f) exactly one of the batteries has failed.


(2)
(Total 17 marks)

1
3. In a game, the probability of a player scoring with a shot is . Let X be the number of shots the
4
player takes to score, including the scoring shot. (You can assume that each shot is independent
of the others.)

(a) Find P(X = 3).


(2)

(b) Find the probability that the player will have at least three misses before scoring twice.
(6)
(c) Prove that the expected value of X is 4.

(You may use the result (1 x)2 = 1 + 2x + 3x2 + 4x3......)


(5)
(Total 13 marks)

4. Two children, Alan and Belle, each throw two fair cubical dice simultaneously. The score for
each child is the sum of the two numbers shown on their respective dice.

(a) (i) Calculate the probability that Alan obtains a score of 9.

(ii) Calculate the probability that Alan and Belle both obtain a score of 9.
(2)

(b) (i) Calculate the probability that Alan and Belle obtain the same score,

(ii) Deduce the probability that Alans score exceeds Belles score.
(4)

(c) Let X denote the largest number shown on the four dice.

4
x
(i) Show that for P(X x) = , for x = 1, 2,... 6
6

(ii) Copy and complete the following probability distribution table.

x 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 15 671
P(X = x)
1296 1296 1296

(iii) Calculate E(X).


(7)
(Total 13 marks)
5. (a) At a building site the probability, P(A), that all materials arrive on time is 0.85. The
probability, P(B), that the building will be completed on time is 0.60. The probability that
the materials arrive on time and that the building is completed on time is 0.55.

(i) Show that events A and B are not independent.

(ii) All the materials arrive on time. Find the probability that the building will not be
completed on time.
(5)

(b) There was a team of ten people working on the building, including three electricians and
two plumbers. The architect called a meeting with five of the team, and randomly
selected people to attend. Calculate the probability that exactly two electricians and one
plumber were called to the meeting.
(2)

(c) The number of hours a week the people in the team work is normally distributed with a
mean of 42 hours. 10% of the team work 48 hours or more a week. Find the probability
that both plumbers work more than 40 hours in a given week.
(8)
(Total 15 marks)

6. A business man spends X hours on the telephone during the day. The probability density
function of X is given by

1
(8 x x ), for 0 x 2
3
f (x) = 12
0, otherwise.

(a) (i) Write down an integral whose value is E(X).

(ii) Hence evaluate E(X).


(3)

(b) (i) Show that the median, m, of X satisfies the equation

m4 16m2 + 24 = 0.

(ii) Hence evaluate m.


(5)

(c) Evaluate the mode of X.


(3)
(Total 11 marks)
1. (a) T ~ N(, 2)
Finding the z-values (M1)
z1 = 0.5244, z2 = 0.3853 (A1)(A1)
10 = 0.5244, 15 = 0.3853 M1
= 12.9, = 5.50 A1A1 N2N2
Note: Do not accept any other values that
come from premature rounding.

(b) Let X be the random variable number of text messages in 2 hours

e 12 (12 )
8
P(X = 8) = M1A1
8!

= 0.0655 A1 N3

(c) Let X be the random variable number of text messages in 2 hours


P(X = 13) = 0.1055... (A1)
P(X 10) = 0.7576... (A1)
P(X = 13 | X 10) M1

P( X = 13) P( X = 13)
= = (A1)
P( X 10 ) 1 P( X 9 )

= 0.139 A1 N4
Note: Do not accept any other value that
comes from premature rounding.

(d) Let Y be the random variable number of text messages in


15 minutes
Let D be the random variable number of days with no
messages received
Y ~ Po(1.5) (A1)
P(Y = 0) = 0.2231... (A1)
D ~ B(5, 0.2231...) M1
P(D = 3) = 0.0670 A1 N1
Note: 0.067 incurs an accuracy penalty.
[18]
1
2. (a) For f (x) to be a probability distribution function, 0
f ( x)dx = 1 .

1
(e ke
kx
)dx = 1 (M1)
0

[
ex e kx ]
1
0 =1 (M1)
e ek + 1 =1 (A1)
e=e k
k =1 (AG) 3
Thus f (x) = e ex, 0 x 1

(b)
1/ 2

1/ 4
(e e x )dx = ex e x [ ]
1/ 2
1/ 4 =
e
2
e
e +4 e
4
(M1)

e
= e+4 e (A1) 2
4

1 1
= (e e )dx = (ex xe
x x
(c) )dx (M1)
0 0

1
ex 2 1 e
=
2 0
0
xe x dx =
2
[ xe x e x ]10 (M1)

e
= 1 (A1)
2
2
1 e
Variance = 0
x 2 (e e x ) dx 1
2
(M1)

1
ex 3 e
2
= e ( x 2 x + 2) 1
x 2
(M1)
3 0 2
2 e2
=2 e +e1
3 4
e e2
=1+ (A1) 6
3 4

1
(d) p(battery lasts more than 6 months) = p x >
2
1
= 1/ 2
(e e x ) dx (M1)

= [ex e x ]11 / 2
e
= e or 0.290(3sf) (A1) 2
2
(e) p(no battery failed) = p(all lasted more than 6 months) (M1)
3
e
= e or 0.0243 (3 sf) (A1) 2
2

3
2
e e
(f) p(exactly one battery failed) = 1 e + e (M1)
2 2 2
0.179 (3 sf) (A1) 2
[17]

2
3 1 9
3. (a) P(X = 3) = = (= 0.141 to 3 sf) (M1)(A1) 2
4 4 64

(b) Let the probability of at least three misses before scoring twice = P(3 m)
Let S mean Score and M mean Miss.
P(3 m) = 1 [P(0 misses) + P(1 miss) + P(2 misses)] (M1)
= 1 [P(SS) + P(SMS or MSS) + P(MMSS or MSMS or SMMS)] (M2)
1 2 1 3 1 3
2 2 2
= 1 + 2 + 3 (A2)
4 4 4 4 4
189
= (= 0.738 to 3 sf) (A1) 6
256

1 32

1 1 3
(c) E(x) = xP(x) = 1 + 2 + 3 + ...
(M1)(A1)
for all x 4 4 4 4 4
1 3 32
= 1 + 2 + 3 + ... (A1)
4 4 4


2
1 3
= 1 (using the given result) (M1)
4 4
2
11 1 2
= = (4) = 4 (A1)(AG) 5
44 4
[13]
1
4. (a) (i) P(Alan scores 9) = (= 0.111) (A1)
9
2
1 1
(ii) P(Alan scores 9 and Belle scores 9) = =
9 81
(= 0.0123) (A1) 2

2 2 2 2
1 2 6 2
(b) (i) P(Same score) = + + + + +
36 36 36 36
2
1
+ (M1)
36
73
= (= 0.113) (A1)
648

1 73
(ii) P(A>B) = 1 (M1)
2 648
575
= (= 0.444) (A1) 4
1296

x
(c) (i) P(One number x) = (with some explanation) (R1)
6
4
x
P(X x) = P(All four numbers x) = (M1)(AG)
6

4 4
x x 1
(ii) P(X = x) = P(X x) P(X x l) =
6 6
x 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X = x) 1 15 65 175 369 671
1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296

(A1)(A1)(A1)
Note: Award (A3) if table is not completed but calculation of
E(X) in part (iii) is correct.
1 15 671
(iii) E(X) = 1 +2 ++6 (M1)
1296 1296 1296
6797
= (= 5.24) (A1) 7
1296
[13]

5. (a) (i) To be independent P(A B) = P(A) P(B) (R1)


P(A) P(B) = (0.85)(0.60)
= 0.51
but P(A B) = 0.55 (A1)
P(A B) P(A) P(B)
Hence A and B are not independent. (AG)

(ii)

A B

0.30 0.55 0.05

0.10

P ( B' A)
P(BA) = (M1)
P( A)
0.30
= (M1)
0.85
6
= (= 0.353) (A1) 5
17
3 2 5

Probability of 2 electricians and 1 plumber =
2 1 2
(b) (M1)
10

5
60 5
= = = 0.238 (A1)
252 21
OR
5! 3 2 2 5 4
Probability of 2 electricians and 1 plumber = (M1)
2!2! 10 9 8 7 6
5
= (= 0.238) (A1) 2
21

(c) X = number of hours worked.


X ~ N (42, 2)
P(X 48) = 0.10 (AG)
P(X < 48) = 0.90 (M1)
(z) = 0.90
z = 1.28
(z = 1.28155) (A1)
(Answers given to more than 3 significant figures will be accepted.)
X 48 42
z= => 1.28 = (M1)

=> = 4.69 (Accept = 4.68) (A1)
40 42
P(X > 40) = P Z > (M1)
4.69
= 0.665 (A1)
OR
P(X > 40) = 0.665 (G2)
Therefore, the probability that one plumber works more than 40 hours
per week is 0.665.
The probability that both plumbers work more than 40 hours per week
= (0.665)2 (M1)
= 0.443 (Accept 0.442 or 0.444) (A1) 8
[15]
1 2
6. (a) (i)
12 0
x (8x x3)dx = E(X) (M1)(A1)

1
Note: Award (M1) for x(8x x3)dx, and (A1) for the
12
correct limits.
2
1 8 3 x5
12 3
(ii) E(X) = x
5 0
56
= = 1.24 (A1)
45
OR
E(X) = 1.24 (G1) 3

(b) (i) The median satisfies


1 m

12 0
( )
8 x x 3 dx =
1
2
(M1)

m
2 x4
4 x 4 = 6 (A1)
0
2 m4
4m 0=6
4
(A1)

m4 16m2 +24 = 0 (AG)

16 256 96
(ii) m2 = (M1)
2
m= 8 40 (= 1.29) (A1)
OR
m = 1.29 (G2) 5
Note: Award (M1)(A0) or (G1) if other values in addition to
1.29 are given.

(c) For the mode, we require the value of x which maximises f (x). (M1)
8
f (x) = 0 8 3x2 = 0 x = = 1.63 (M1)(A1)
3
OR
x = 1.63 (G2) 3
[11]