ORGANIZATIONALBEHAVIORAND HUMAN PERFORMANCE10, 424-426 (1973)

A Model for which Dodson's Algorithm is Appropriate

CHAI~LES F. GETTYS
University o] Oklahoma

Problems in interpretation have arisen in Dodson's modification of

Bayes's theorem which is the original formulation for use in multistage
inference situatons. This paper gives a model for which Dodson's
algorithm is appropriate, and contrasts this model to a model developed
by Gettys and Willke (Organizational Behavior and Human PerJormance,
1969, 4, 125-141).

Modified Bayes's Theorem, the work of J. D. Dodson (1961), has

generated considerable interest as a model for human multistage infer-
enee, and as a combination rule for computerized multistage inference
systems (Howell & Gettys, 1968). The purpose of this note is to correct
a misapprehension created earlier in this journal by Gettys and Willke
(1969) regarding Dodson's work.
Gettys and Willke (1969) noted what they interpreted to be a lack
of path independence in Dodson's formulation. Since Dodson did not
provide a mathematical model for his version of MBT, but instead
used the notion of expectation, it was not clear exactly what the input
quantities should be in Dodson's interative equation for the multiple
input situation (see Eq. (12), p. 135, Gettys & Willke, 1969). Since these
authors were unable to find a model or input quantities for which
Dodson's ingerative equation was path independent, they concluded
that: "Since there is no justification of Eq. (12) in Dodson's paper,
we must conclude that it is not valid for this multiple-input model. It
is not clear, moreover, under what assumption or for what model
it is valid" (Gettys and Willke, pp. 136-7, 1969).
Recently Gettys (1969') was able to derive a model for which Dodson's
algorithm has the appropriate characteristics of path independence using
the same assumptions as Gettys and Willke (1969). Since the derivation
is lengthy (21 steps) only the result will be given here, using the nota-
tion of Gettys and Willke:
I

P(gjcol,o?) = P(g~[co ~) p(E~,[~ol) (1)

i=1
424
Copyright 1973 by Acudemic Press, Inc.
All rights of reproduction in any form reserved.
 DODSONtS ALGORITHM 425

This equation deals with the following ease:

Ha
/ \
Ei ~ E&
l i

Where H~ are upper-level hypotheses, E~ 1 and Ei 2 are distinctly dif-

ferent middle-level variables, and ~1 and ~ are data which have a
predictive rel'~tionship with E~ 1 and E~ 2, respectively. All terms in the
above Eq. (1) and Gettys and Willke's Eq. (11) are equal, except the
P(E21~ ~) and the P(E~Io~ 1, ~2) input terms in Eq. 1; Gettys and Willke
use P(Ei2[~ 2) as their input in the numerator, and P(E~ 2) in the denom-
inator. The model Gettys and Willke developed and this new model for
Dodson treat the first datum ~1 in an identical manner. Gettys and
Willke use a numerator input of P(E~:Io~2) in the second stage of
iteration, while the new Dodson model uses P(E~I2~). Similarly, in the
denominator, Gettys and Willke use P(E~ ~) while the new model for
Dodson uses P(E~2!o)I).
The Gettys-Willke model is a model appropriate for those situations
where the estimate of P(E~IoT) is made in ignorance of the change or
revision of He, created by the knowledge of 1 . This model is best suited
for those situations where the expert estimating P(E~Io, ~) is ignorant
of the systems opinion and any data collected by the system that is
relevant to E & This situation would occur, for example, if a photointer-
preter was producing probability estimates of missile-launch readiness
from aerial reconnaissance photos (~) in ignorance of other strategic
information (~) that affected the probability of a surprise attack (H~).
The new Dodson model assumes a photointerpreter that has access to
systems opinion. He is told, in effect: "other information (o)~) indicates
that the probability of a surprise attack is .89, i.e., P(//~I~ ~) = .89.
Therefore, missile readiness (P(Ei:lo2)) should be high. Given this
systems opinion, and the photo before you, what is their missile launch
readiness?" The P(Ei:Io2,~ ~) estimate can be thought of as a P(E~I~~)
estimate whie?h incorporates the systems opinion resulting from ~ . This
offered without proof, as again, the derivation is lengthy. (See Gettys,
1969.) Clearly this is a useful model.
In summary, it has been shown t h a t a useful model can be supplied
for Dodson (1_961), which removes the ambiguities present in his initial
formulation. Only rarely has such an original and seminal work such
as Dodson's been virtually ignored and misunderstood. While the reader
will have difficulty obtaining Dodson's article, as it was issued only as
a technical report, he is urged to read this article in the original, as it is
the basis for most of the ideas in this special issue.
426 CHARLES F. GETTYS

REFEP~ENCES
DODSON, J. D. Simulation system design for a TEAS simulation research facility.
Los Angeles: Planning P~esearch Corporation, November 1961. No. AFCRL-
1112, PRC R-194.
GETTYS, C. F. A case where Dodson's MBT is appropriate. Mimeo copy, University
of Oklahoma, 1969.
GETTYS, C. ., (~ V~-ILL/~E,T. A. The application of Bayes's Theorem when the true
data state is uncertain. Organizational Behavior and Human Per]ormance, 1969,
4, 125-141.
I-Iov~'ELL,W. C., (~ GETTYS, C. F. Some principles for the design of decision systems:
A review of the final phase of research on a command-control system simulation.
AMl~L-TR-68-158, Aerospace Medical Research Laboratories, Wright Patterson
AFB, November 1968.