Focuseconomics Consensus Forecast Japan - April 2015 PDF

CONSENSUS FORECAST
Japan April 2015

JAPAN 2
CALENDAR 17
NOTES 19
PUBLICATION DATE 31 March 2015

FORECASTS COLLECTED 24 March - 30 March 2015
INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 30 March 2015
NEXT EDITION 5 May 2015
Contributors
ARNE POHLMAN OLGA COSCODAN ANGELA BOUZANIS
Chief Economist Economist Economist
ARMANDO CICCARELLI CARL KELLY CECILIA SIMKIEVICH
Head of Research Economist Economist
RICARDO ACEVES TERESA KERSTING MIRIAM DOWD
Senior Economist Economist Editor
RICARD TORN DIRINA MANELLARI
Senior Economist Economist
FOCUSECONOMICS Japan April 2015
Japan
Outlook moderates
Japan
The economy rebounded in Q4 as the negative impact of the VAT hike

faded and the weakening of the yen and lower oil prices bolstered business
sentiment. More recent economic data suggest that private consumption
is now supporting growth, reflecting improvements in the labor market and
rising wages. Against this backdrop, consumer confidence hit a six-month
high in February. Moreover, despite moderating, the manufacturing PMI
remained in expansion mode in March for the 10th consecutive month.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
2011-13 2014-16 2017-19 Although the low oil price environment and a weak yen are supporting
Population (million): 128 127 125 economic growth, the limited progress on implementing the much-needed
GDP (USD bn): 5,593 4,214 4,134
structural reforms continues to dampen the countrys economic outlook.
GDP per capita (USD): 43,818 33,251 32,967
GDP growth (%): 1.0 0.8 1.1 FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 0.9% in 2015, which is
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -9.2 -7.2 -4.7 down 0.1 percentage points from the previous months estimate. The
Public Debt (% of GDP): 208 214 215
Inflation (%): 0.0 1.5 1.6 panel projects economic growth of 1.5% in 2016.
Current Account (% of GDP): 1.3 1.6 2.5
Overall inflation fell from Januarys 2.4% to 2.2% in February, which

represented the lowest rate since March 2014. Although the slump in oil
prices and still-weak economic growth are threatening authorities efforts
to pull Japan out of decades of deflation, at the 1617 March monetary
policy meeting, the Central Bank decided not to expand its stimulus
program further. The FocusEconomics panel sees inflation averaging
0.8% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last months
estimate. Next year, the panel expects inflation to be at 1.0%.
Ricard Torn REAL SECTOR | Japans economy exits recession in Q4; growth revised
Senior Economist downward on falling investment
Although revised data confirmed that the Japanese economy exited recession
in Q4, growth in the final quarter of 2014 was lower than initially expected.
GDP expanded 1.5% in Q4 over the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted
Gross Domestic Product | variation in % annualized terms (SAAR), according to new data released on 11 March. The
15
reading was below the 2.2% increase reported in the first release. On an
Quarter-on-quarter saar
annual basis, economic activity fell 0.8% in Q4, which exceeded the 0.5%
Year-on-year
10 drop tallied in the first estimate.
5
The downwardly revised figure showed that domestic demand was weaker
%
0
than previously estimated, while the contribution to growth from the external
sector was left unchanged. Although growth in both private consumption
-5 and public spending fared better compared to the initial estimate, expanding
2.0% (previously reported: +1.1% quarter-on-quarter SAAR) and 1.2%
-10
Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 (previously reported: +0.4% qoq SAAR) respectively, a downward revision to
investment drove down overall GDP. Gross fixed capital formation declined
Note: Quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized changes and annual
variation of GDP in %. 0.1% (previously reported: +0.1% qoq SAAR) and private non-residential
Source: Cabinet Office (CO) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
investment contracted 0.3% (previously reported: +0.4% qoq SAAR).
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) expects the economy to expand between 1.8% and
2.3% in the fiscal year 2015, which ends in March 2016. In the subsequent fiscal
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |2

year, the BoJ sees GDP growth of between 1.5% and 1.7%. FocusEconomics
Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 0.9% in calendar year
2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last months projection. In
2016, the panel sees the economy growing 1.5%.
REAL SECTOR | Decline in manufacturing PMI continues in March

The Markit/JMMA Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
declined from the revised 51.6 in February (previously reported: 51.5) to 50.4
in March. As a result, the index now sits at the lowest level in 10 months and
Purchasing Managers Index its gradually approaching to the 50-threshold that separates expansion from
contraction in the manufacturing sector.
60
The deterioration reflected slower rates of expansion in orders and employment.

55
Moreover, new orders dipped into the red in March. Markit/JMMA analysts
stated that, March data highlighted a weaker improvement in operating
conditions in the Japanese manufacturing sector. New orders contracted
50 slightly, while production growth slowed to a moderate pace. Subsequently,
employment growth eased to the weakest pace in the current sequence of
expansion, while buying activity declined for the first time since May 2014,
45 albeit at a fractional rate. Meanwhile, new orders from abroad increased, with
Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15
a favourable yen/dollar rate helping to improve price competitiveness.
Note: Markit/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. Readings above

50 indicate an expansion in the manufacturing sector while readings below 50
REAL SECTOR | Industrial production records largest drop in nearly
indicate a contraction. four years in February
Source: JMMA and Markit.
In February, industrial production declined 3.4% over the previous month
in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted the revised 3.8% increase
recorded in January (previously reported: +4.0% month-on-month). The
print exceeded the 1.9% contraction that market analysts had expected and
represented the largest decline since March 2011.
According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the categories that
made the greatest contributions to the monthly fall were machinery, transport
equipment and electronic parts and devices. Despite Februarys disappointing
performance, the government maintained its general assessment of industrial
Industrial Production | variation in % production, stating that recovering moderately.
6 12
On an annual basis, industrial output fell 2.6% in February, which followed

3 6
the 2.8% decrease tallied in the previous month. As a result, annual average
% %
growth in industrial production ticked down from 1.0% in January to 0.2% in
0 0 February.
-3 -6 Meanwhile, the Survey of Production Forecast showed that manufacturers

Month-on-month s.a. (left scale)
are becoming more optimistic. They now expect industrial output to have
Year-on-year (right scale)
-6 -12
recorded a month-on-month 2.0% decline in March, which is above the 3.2%
Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15
drop that was forecast in the previous months survey. Manufacturers expect
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted industrial production and a 3.6% expansion in April.
year-on-year growth rate in %.
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and FocusEconomics
calculations. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production
expanding 2.4% in 2015, which is up 0.4 percentage points over the previous
months projection. In 2016, the panel expects industrial production to rise
2.5%.
REAL SECTOR | Machinery orders contract in January

Core machinery orders (a leading indicator of capital spending over a three-
to six-month period) contracted in January for the first time in three months.
Headline machinery orders (private sector, excluding volatile orders) fell 1.7%

in January over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which

contrasted the 8.3% increase recorded in December. The print, however, was
less than market analysts forecasts for a 4.1% drop.
Overall manufacturing orders recorded the largest drop in eight months, while
growth in non-manufacturing books decelerated in January. Export orders
recovered strongly partially due to the deprecation of the yen.
Core Machinery Orders | variation in %
20
Month-on-month s.a. (left scale)
30
Compared to the same month of last year, core machinery orders rose 1.9%
Year-on-year (right scale) in January, which marked a sharp slowdown over the 11.4% increase tallied
10 15 in the previous month. As a result, the trend continued to point downward;
% % annual average growth in core machinery orders decreased from 4.0% in
0 0 December to 2.7% in January, which represented a 16-month low.
-10 -15
Despite the deterioration observed in January, the Cabinet Office maintained
its assessment of machinery orders, stating that, they are in a gradual
recovery. Businesses surveyed by the Cabinet Office predict that there will
-20 -30
Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 be a 1.5% increase in the first quarter, following the 0.4% increase tallied in
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted core machinery orders
the fourth quarter.
and year-on-year growth rate in %.
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and FocusEconomics
calculations. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private non-residential
investment to rise 1.0% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points over last
months projection. In 2016, the panel sees private non-residential investment
expanding 2.9%. In addition, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists
expect gross fixed investment to drop 0.2% in 2015, which is unchanged over
last months projection. In 2016, the panel sees gross fixed investment growth
at 1.8%.
OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence hits six-month high in February

Consumer sentiment rose from the 39.1 points recorded in January to 40.7
points in February. The print represented a six-month high and came in
Consumer Confidence Index above the 39.5 points that analysts had expected. The consumer confidence
50
index measures consumers expectations for the next six months on a scale
of 0100, where 100 points indicates that all respondents see their living
standards improving.
45
Februarys result reflected a strong increase in the overall livelihood category

as well as in consumers willingness to buy durable goods. Job conditions
40
also improved markedly in February, while income growth recorded a mild
gain. Against this backdrop, the government upgraded its view on consumer
confidence stating that, some recovery in the consumer mindset can be
35
Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 seen.
Note: Index of consumer sentiment. The 50-point threshold represents the point
above which consumers expect economic conditions to improve.
Source: Cabinet Office (CO).
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption
to rise 0.3% in 2015, which is unchanged from last months forecast. In 2016,
the panel sees private consumption growing 1.3%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Core inflation slows to nearly one-year low in

February
In February, the core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh food
prices, fell 0.1% over the previous month. The decrease was above the 0.6%
drop tallied in January and mainly reflected sharp declines in prices for clothes
and footwear as well as for transportation and communication.
Annual core inflation slowed from the previous months 2.2% to 2.0% in
February. The print slightly undershot the 2.2% that market analysts had

Inflation | Consumer Price Index expected and represented the lowest rate since March 2014. Overall inflation
3.0 4.0 declined from 2.4% in January to 2.2% in February.
Core month-on-month (left scale)
Core year-on-year (right scale)
CPI year-on-year (right scale) Core inflation for Tokyoavailable one month in advance of the national
1.5 2.0 figures and thus a leading indicator for countrywide inflationremained at
% %
2.2% in March for the fourth consecutive month, which was in line with the
result that market analysts had expected.
0.0 0.0
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) expects that core inflation will be between 0.4% and
1.3% in the fiscal year ending March 2016. In the following fiscal year, the BoJ
-1.5 -2.0
Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 sees inflation rising to somewhere between 1.5% and 2.3%. FocusEconomics
Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation of 0.8% in the calendar year
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month var. of consumer price index in %.
Source: Statistics Bureau (SB) and FocusEconomics calculations. 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last months estimate. In
2016, the panel sees inflation at 1.0%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Bank of Japan refrains from adding stimulus

while deflation fears loom
At its 1617 March monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) voted
81 to maintain its monetary policy stance unchanged. The Bank also decided
to continue implementing money market operations so that the monetary
baseits main policy instrumentwill increase at an annual pace of JPY 80
Monetary Base and 10-Year Bond Yields trillion (approximately USD 660 billion). The decision, which was in line with
1.6
Monetary Base (JPY tr, right scale)
280
market expectations, is aimed at meeting the Central Banks inflation target
10-Year Bond Yields (%, left scale) of 2.0%.
1.2 230
% In its March assessment of the economy, the BoJ restated that the economy
0.8 180 has continued its moderate recovery trend. The mild recovery in the global
economymostly in advanced nationshas prop up Japanese exports,
0.4 130 while private consumption remained resilient due to increasing employment
and income. Business investment improved slightly on the back of higher
0.0 80
corporate profits.
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15
Note: Monetary base in JPY trillion and 10-year bond yields %. Regarding price developments, while the Bank stressed that, inflation
Source: Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Thomson Reuters.
expectations appear to be rising on the whole from a somewhat longer-term
perspective, it affirmed that inflation is likely to remain close to 0% going
forward due to the oil price decline.
At the press conference held after the monetary policy meeting, Governor
Haruhiko Kuroda stated that prices could decline slightly in the months to
come. That said, he stressed that the lull in inflation will be temporary and that
prices will pick up as the economy recovers.
Exchange Rate | JPY per USD

The monetary base expanded 36.7% in February and reached JPY 275 trillion,
125
which was unchanged from the result tallied in January. With these results, the
Central Bank has already met its target of doubling the countrys monetary
115 base in March 2015 as it has expanded by an accumulated 104.3% since the
Bank unveiled its quantitative and qualitative easing program in April 2013.
105
95
All FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts panelists expect the collateralized
overnight call rate to remain unchanged at between 0.0% and 0.1% in 2015
85 and 2016.
75
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the yen to trade at
127.0 per USD by the end of 2015. For 2016, the panel projects the yen to
Note: Daily spot of Japanese yen (JPY) against U.S. dollar (USD).
Source: Thomson Reuters. weaken to 131.0 per USD.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Trade balance records smallest deficit in 20

months in February
In February, nominal exports valued in yen expanded 2.4% over the same
month last year, which represented a significant deceleration over the 17.0%
Merchandise Trade increase recorded in January. The rise overshot the 0.3% expansion that
0 20 market analysts had expected and represented the weakest pace of growth
in six months.
-5 10
Imports contracted again in February, falling 3.6% over the same month last
% year, which followed the 9.0% drop tallied in January. The print contrasted the
3.1% increase that market analysts had expected. Imports continue to fall as
-10 0
the decline in energy prices is cutting costs.
Trade balance (JPY tn, left scale)
Exports (yoy, right scale)
-15
Imports (yoy, right scale)
-10
As a result of the drop in imports and the expansion in exports, the trade
Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15
deficit narrowed to JPY 425 million (USD 3.5 billion) in February from JPY 806
million in the same month last year. Moreover, the print marked the smallest
Note: 12-month trade balance in JPY trillion and annual variation of the 12-month
sum of exports and imports. shortfall in 20 months and was less than the JPY 1.0 billion deficit economists
Source: Ministry of Finance.
had expected. In the 12 months up to February, the trade deficit was JPY 10.8
trillion, which was down from the JPY 11.2 trillion shortfall that was recorded
in the previous month and represented the smallest deficit since November
2013.

Economic Indicators | 2010 - 2019
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Real Sector
Population (million) 128 128 128 127 127 127 126 126 125 125
GDP per capita (USD) 42,995 46,413 46,770 38,270 36,448 31,885 31,419 31,789 32,852 34,259
GDP (USD bn) 5,505 5,936 5,968 4,873 4,631 4,041 3,970 4,003 4,120 4,279
GDP (JPY bn) 482,384 471,311 475,110 480,128 487,990 501,690 514,245 529,602 543,372 557,382
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 2.4 -2.3 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.7 2.5 3.0 2.6 2.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 4.7 -0.5 1.8 1.6 0.0 0.9 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.1
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) 3.0 0.5 2.6 1.9 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.3
Private Consumption (ann. variation in %) 2.8 0.3 2.3 2.1 -1.2 0.3 1.3 0.6 0.7 0.9
Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 1.9 1.2 1.7 1.9 0.3 - - - - -
Gross Fixed Investment (ann. var. in %) -0.2 1.5 3.2 3.2 2.5 -0.2 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4
Private Non-residential Inv. (ann. var. in %) 0.7 4.1 3.6 0.6 3.8 1.0 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.3
Government Investment (ann. var. in %) 0.1 -7.7 2.0 8.0 3.7 - - - - -
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 24.5 -0.4 -0.1 1.5 8.2 5.8 4.5 5.1 4.9 4.4
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 11.1 5.9 5.3 3.0 7.2 3.3 4.1 4.4 4.0 3.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 15.6 -2.6 0.2 -0.6 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.5
Nominal Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 2.7 -1.0 1.8 1.0 1.7 - - - - -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.1 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3
Machinery Orders (annual variation in %) 7.0 7.8 -0.9 5.8 4.0 - - - - -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -9.5 -9.5 -9.0 -9.1 -8.3 -6.9 -6.5 -5.1 -4.7 -4.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 191 203 210 212 211 214 216 216 215 214
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 2.3 3.2 2.6 4.2 3.6 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 1.6 2.4 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.4 2.7 0.8 1.0 2.0 1.5 1.4
Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, eop) -0.8 -0.1 -0.2 1.2 2.6 - - - - -
Inflation (Core, annual average variation in %) -1.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 2.6 - - - - -
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) -0.1 1.5 -0.9 1.3 3.2 - - - - -
Overnight Call Rate (%, eop) 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.15 0.33 0.59
3-Month Interest Rate (%, eop) 0.34 0.33 0.31 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.18 0.26 0.57 0.96
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 1.12 0.99 0.80 0.74 0.33 0.53 0.70 0.95 1.39 1.64
Stock Market (Nikkei 225 variation in %) -3.0 -17.3 22.9 56.7 7.1 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (JPY per USD, eop) 81.2 77.0 86.7 105.3 119.7 127.0 131.0 130.8 130.1 127.7
Exchange Rate (JPY per USD, aop) 87.7 79.7 79.8 97.6 105.9 122.8 128.2 130.9 130.5 128.9
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 217.2 126.5 58.5 33.5 24.6 84.3 81.4 93.5 103.4 112.4
Trade Balance (USD bn) 75.6 -32.7 -87.3 -117.5 -122.4 - - - - -
Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) -1.4 -0.8 -1.3 0.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5
Economic Growth (GDP, saar in %) -2.6 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4
Private Consumption (saar in %) 1.1 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.7
Gross Fixed Investment (saar in %) -2.4 -0.1 2.6 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.7
Private Non-residential Inv. (saar in %) -0.6 -0.3 5.3 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.8
Exports (G&S, saar in %) 6.2 11.5 7.0 5.3 4.9 4.6 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.8
Imports (G&S, saar in %) 4.3 5.3 7.2 3.9 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.3 5.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) -1.0 -1.5 -1.6 2.3 4.6 3.9 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.6
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4
TANKAN Large Manufact. (0-point threshold) 13 12 - - - - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual average var. in %, aop) 3.3 2.6 2.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1
Overnight Call Rate (%, eop) 0.10 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
3-Month Interest Rate (%, eop) 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.18 0.18
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 0.53 0.33 0.38 0.41 0.46 0.53 0.52 0.56 0.65 0.70
Exchange Rate (JPY per USD, eop) 109.7 119.7 120.8 122.7 124.5 127.0 127.2 127.7 128.8 131.0
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 1.3 1.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 15.6 13.1 20.1 21.8 20.1 21.2 18.7 18.9 20.0 18.6
Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Industrial Production (s.a. mom var. in %) -3.4 0.4 -1.9 2.9 0.4 -0.5 0.8 3.8 -3.4 -
Nominal Retail Sales (annual var. in %) -0.6 0.6 1.2 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 -2.0 -1.8 -
Unemployment (% of active population) 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.5 -
Machinery Orders (s.a. mom var. in %) 8.8 3.5 4.7 2.9 -6.4 1.3 8.3 -1.7 - -
Consumer Confidence (50-point threshold) 41.1 41.5 41.2 39.9 38.9 37.7 38.8 39.1 40.7 -
Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 51.5 50.5 52.2 51.7 52.4 52.0 52.0 52.2 51.6 50.4
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 -
Inflation (Core, annual variation in %) 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.0 -
Inflation (Core Tokyo, annual variation in %) 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
Exchange Rate (JPY per USD, eop) 101.3 102.8 104.1 109.7 112.3 118.6 119.7 117.5 119.5 -
Merchandise Exports (annual var. in %) -2.0 3.9 -1.3 6.9 9.6 4.9 12.9 17.0 2.4 -

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product
1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2019 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %
6 8
Individual Forecasts 2015 2016
BBVA Research 1.3 1.2
Berenberg 0.8 1.5
3 4 BMO Capital Markets 0.7 1.5
BNP Paribas 0.4 0.8
Capital Economics 0.0 1.5
0 0 Citigroup Global Mkts 1.0 2.0
Commerzbank 0.8 1.3
Credit Agricole 1.3 1.5
-3 -4 Credit Suisse 0.7 1.0
Japan
Daiwa 1.0 1.9
G7
DekaBank 0.4 1.0
World Japan G7
-6 -8 Deutsche Bank 0.9 1.8
2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 DIW Berlin 0.9 1.5
DZ Bank 1.3 2.0
3 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2016 | evolution of forecasts EIU 1.3 2.0
Frontier Strategy Group 1.2 1.1
3 3 Goldman Sachs 0.8 1.2
HSBC 0.8 1.1
2 2
ING 1.2 1.7
Intesa Sanpaolo 0.8 1.3
Japan Research Inst. 0.9 1.7
1 1 JPMorgan 1.0 1.5
Julius Baer 1.0 1.5
0 0 KBC 1.3 1.3
Lloyds TSB 0.9 1.8
Maximum
Mizuho Research Inst. 1.2 2.0
-1 Maximum -1
Consensus Consensus Nomura 1.2 1.7
Minimum Minimum Nordea 0.8 1.3
-2 -2 Oxford Economics 0.9 1.8
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
Raiffeisen Research 0.7 1.3
Scotiabank 0.6 1.2
5 | GDP 2015 | Panelist Distribution Standard Chartered 1.0 1.2
UBS 1.0 1.6
40%
Unicredit 0.8 1.4
Summary
Minimum 0.0 0.8
30%
Maximum 1.3 2.0
Median 0.9 1.5
Consensus 0.9 1.5
20%
History
30 days ago 1.0 1.5
60 days ago 1.0 1.4
10%
90 days ago 1.0 1.4
Additional Forecasts
Central Bank (FY, Jan. 2015) 1.8-2.3 1.5-1.7
0%
< 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 > 1.6 IMF (Jan. 2015) 0.6 0.8
OECD (Nov. 2014) 0.8 1.0
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from
the Cabinet Office (CO). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %.
2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), quarter-on-quarter annualized variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Real Sector | Additional forecasts
6 | Consumption | variation in % Consumption and Investment
4 Consumption Gross Fixed Inv. Private Non-res. Inv.

variation in % variation in % variation in %
Japan G7
Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016
BBVA Research 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.8 - -
2 Berenberg 0.0 1.2 -1.0 2.4 - -
BMO Capital Markets - - - - - -
BNP Paribas 0.0 1.0 -0.8 1.5 - -
Capital Economics -0.5 1.0 0.5 1.8 1.7 1.5
0 Citigroup Global Mkts 0.3 1.5 - - 2.4 4.5
Commerzbank - - - - - -
Credit Agricole - - - - - -
Credit Suisse -0.1 1.0 - - 0.4 1.1
-2 Daiwa 0.3 1.3 - - 1.0 5.2
2000 2005 2010 2015
DekaBank 0.0 0.7 -1.4 1.2 -1.2 1.3
Deutsche Bank -0.2 1.5 -0.3 1.6 - -
DIW Berlin - - - - - -
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst DZ Bank 0.7 1.7 1.1 3.2 - -
EIU 0.7 1.1 0.9 2.0 - -
1.5 Frontier Strategy Group 0.5 0.6 - - - -
Goldman Sachs 0.1 0.9 -0.9 1.9 -0.4 2.1
2015 2016
HSBC 0.2 1.7 -1.9 0.6 - -
ING - - - - - -
1.0
Intesa Sanpaolo 1.0 1.3 - - 1.0 1.9
Japan Research Inst. 0.1 1.1 - - 0.8 3.7
JPMorgan 0.7 - - - 2.5 -
Julius Baer - - - - - -
0.5
KBC - - - - - -
Lloyds TSB - - - - - -
Mizuho Research Inst. 0.4 1.5 - - 1.4 3.2
Nomura 0.1 1.6 - - 1.7 4.5
0.0
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nordea - - - - - -
Oxford Economics 0.8 2.1 0.1 1.0 - -
Raiffeisen Research - - - - - -
Scotiabank - - - - - -
8 | Investment | variation in %
Standard Chartered - - - - - -
10 UBS 0.3 1.3 -0.1 2.4 - -
Unicredit - - - - - -
Summary
Minimum -0.5 0.6 -1.9 0.6 -1.2 1.1
0 Maximum 1.0 2.1 1.3 3.2 2.5 5.2
Median 0.3 1.3 -0.2 1.8 1.0 2.7
Consensus 0.3 1.3 -0.2 1.8 1.0 2.9
History
-10 30 days ago 0.3 1.3 -0.2 1.9 1.1 2.8
60 days ago 0.5 1.2 0.0 1.7 1.6 2.7
90 days ago 0.4 1.2 -0.1 1.1 2.0 2.4
Japan G7
-20
2000 2005 2010 2015
9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts
2015 2016
2 Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Cabinet Office (CO).
Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.
0 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
8 Private non-residential fixed investment, annual variation in %.
9 Private non-residential fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Exports and Imports 10 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports 30
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 Japan G7
BBVA Research 3.8 3.4 4.8 4.3 15

Berenberg - - - -
BMO Capital Markets - - - -
BNP Paribas - - - - 0
Capital Economics 1.0 1.0 2.7 1.0
Citigroup Global Mkts 7.2 4.2 3.7 2.8
Commerzbank - - - - -15
Credit Agricole - - - -
Credit Suisse 5.6 2.1 1.4 1.9
Daiwa 7.1 5.3 2.4 4.4 -30
DekaBank 6.0 5.2 2.1 4.0 2000 2005 2010 2015
Deutsche Bank 8.0 7.6 4.4 6.8

DIW Berlin - - - -
DZ Bank 6.4 4.3 3.7 4.4 11 | Exports | evolution of fcst
EIU 6.6 6.5 4.1 3.9
Frontier Strategy Group 5.3 4.8 3.4 3.4 8
Goldman Sachs 6.6 6.0 3.2 5.2 2015 2016
HSBC 6.1 3.8 3.7 6.4
ING - - - - 7
Intesa Sanpaolo 2.8 3.3 2.7 3.4
Japan Research Inst. 5.6 4.5 2.9 4.2
JPMorgan 7.8 - 5.9 - 6
Julius Baer - - - -
KBC - - - -
Lloyds TSB - - - - 5
Mizuho Research Inst. 6.0 6.1 2.4 4.7

Nomura 6.7 4.1 2.5 5.0
4
Nordea - - - -
Oxford Economics 4.6 3.4 3.6 4.6
Raiffeisen Research - - - -
Scotiabank - - - -
Standard Chartered - - - - 12 | Imports | variation in %
UBS 6.4 4.6 3.1 4.0 20
Unicredit - - - -
Summary Japan G7
Minimum 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.0 10

Maximum 8.0 7.6 5.9 6.8
Median 6.1 4.4 3.2 4.3
Consensus 5.8 4.5 3.3 4.1 0
History
30 days ago 5.7 4.8 3.0 4.1
60 days ago 5.0 4.6 2.7 4.3 -10
90 days ago 4.5 4.6 2.8 4.4
-20
2000 2005 2010 2015
13 | Imports | evol. of forecasts
2015 2016
Notes and sources

3
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Cabinet Office
(CO). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
10 Real exports of goods and services, annual variation in %.
11 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 2
12 Real imports of goods and services, annual variation in %.
13 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 10

Real Sector | Additional Forecasts
14 | Industry | variation in % Industry, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance
20 Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balance

variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP
10
BBVA Research - - - - -7.0 -6.5
Berenberg 2.4 2.2 3.6 3.6 -6.5 -6.3
0 BMO Capital Markets - - 3.8 3.6 - -
BNP Paribas - - 3.3 2.9 -7.3 -6.9
-10 Capital Economics - - 3.4 3.3 -6.5 -6.0
Citigroup Global Mkts 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.2 -6.6 -6.2
Commerzbank - - - - - -
-20
Credit Agricole - - 3.5 3.5 -8.3 -8.1
Japan G7
Credit Suisse 2.4 1.8 3.4 3.0 -6.3 -6.0
-30 Daiwa 3.7 4.1 3.3 3.2 - -
2000 2005 2010 2015
DekaBank - - 3.5 3.6 -7.5 -7.0
Deutsche Bank 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.3 - -
DIW Berlin - - 3.8 3.8 - -
15 | Industry | evol. of forecasts DZ Bank - - 3.7 3.8 -6.8 -6.2
EIU 2.9 2.7 3.4 3.3 -6.6 -5.7
4 Frontier Strategy Group 2.0 2.0 3.6 3.6 - -
Goldman Sachs 0.7 2.3 3.4 3.4 - -
HSBC 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.2 - -
ING - - - - - -
3
Intesa Sanpaolo 1.9 2.4 3.7 3.7 - -
Japan Research Inst. 2.3 1.0 3.4 3.4 - -
JPMorgan 3.4 - 3.5 - -6.5 -
Julius Baer - - - - - -
2
KBC - - - - - -
2015 2016 Mizuho Research Inst. 2.2 3.5 3.4 3.3 - -
Nomura 2.7 2.4 3.4 3.3 -7.1 -7.4
1
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nordea - - - - - -
Oxford Economics 1.0 2.4 3.5 3.6 -7.0 -6.1
Raiffeisen Research - - - - -7.3 -6.0
Scotiabank 2.0 1.7 - - -7.0 -6.5
16 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
Standard Chartered - - - - - -
9 UBS 1.6 2.4 3.3 3.2 -6.2 -6.2
Japan G7 Unicredit - - - - -6.5 -6.3
Summary
Minimum 0.7 1.0 3.3 2.9 -8.3 -8.1
7 Maximum 3.7 4.1 3.8 3.8 -6.2 -5.7
Median 2.4 2.4 3.4 3.4 -6.8 -6.3
Consensus 2.4 2.5 3.5 3.4 -6.9 -6.5
History
5 30 days ago 2.0 2.6 3.5 3.4 -6.9 -6.3
60 days ago 1.6 2.6 3.5 3.4 -7.0 -6.4
90 days ago 1.2 2.5 3.6 3.5 -7.0 -6.5
3
2000 2005 2010 2015
17 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
-4
Notes and sources

-8
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Ministry of Economy,
Trade and Industry (METI), the Statistics Bureau (SB) and the Ministry of Finance (MOF). See below for details. Forecasts
Japan G7 are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
14 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: METI.
-12 15 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2000 2005 2010 2015 16 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: SB.
17 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: MOF.

Monetary Sector | Inflation
18 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in % 19 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in % Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in %
4 4 Individual Forecasts 2015 2016

Japan G7 BBVA Research 1.3 1.5
Berenberg 0.8 0.9
BMO Capital Markets 0.8 0.4
2 2 BNP Paribas - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 0.7 1.2
Commerzbank 0.7 0.7
0 0 Credit Agricole 1.5 1.2
Credit Suisse 0.5 0.4
Daiwa 0.6 1.0
Japan G7
DekaBank 1.4 1.6
2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
DIW Berlin 0.6 0.3
DZ Bank 1.1 1.5
20 | Inflation 2015 | evol. of forecasts 21 | Inflation 2016 | evol. of forecasts EIU 1.0 1.6
Frontier Strategy Group 1.1 1.2
3 3
Goldman Sachs 0.7 1.2
HSBC 0.6 0.8
ING 1.4 1.0
2 2
JPMorgan 0.6 -
1 1
Julius Baer 0.4 0.5
KBC 0.7 1.3
Lloyds TSB 0.4 0.6
0 0
Maximum Maximum Mizuho Research Inst. 0.4 0.9
-1 -1
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Oxford Economics 0.3 0.6
Scotiabank 1.1 1.3
22 | Inflation 2015 | Panelist Distribution Standard Chartered 0.5 1.4
UBS 0.9 1.0
50% Unicredit 0.9 1.3
Summary
40% Minimum 0.3 0.3
Maximum 1.5 1.6
Median 0.7 1.0
30%
Consensus 0.8 1.0
History
20% 30 days ago 0.9 1.1
60 days ago 1.2 1.2
10%
90 days ago 1.5 1.2
Additional Forecasts
Central Bank (FY, Jan. 2015) 0.4-1.3 1.5-2.3
0%
< -0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.3 > 2.3
IMF (Oct. 2014) 2.0 2.6
OECD (Nov. 2014) 1.8 1.6
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are
from the Statistics Bureau (SB). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
18 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
19 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index (CPI) in %.
20 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
21 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
22 Inflation, Panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval
in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Monetary Sector | Interest Rates
23 | Policy Rate | in % Policy Rate, Benchmark Rate and 10-Year Bond Yield
8 Overnight 3-Month 10-Year Bond

Japan Call Rate in % Interest Rate in % Yield in %
Euro area
United States
6 BBVA Research 0.10 0.10 - - - -
Berenberg - - - - - -
BMO Capital Markets 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.45 0.65
4 BNP Paribas 0.10 0.10 - - - -
Capital Economics 0.05 0.05 - - 0.50 0.50
Citigroup Global Mkts 0.10 0.10 - - 0.43 0.58
2 Commerzbank 0.10 - 0.15 - 0.50 -
Credit Agricole 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.35 0.25
Credit Suisse 0.05 0.05 - - 0.51 -
0 Daiwa 0.10 0.10 - - 0.54 0.76
2000 2005 2010 2015
DekaBank 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.75 1.00
Deutsche Bank 0.10 - 0.15 - 0.60 -
DIW Berlin - - - - - -
24 | Policy Rate | evol. of forecasts DZ Bank - - - - - -
EIU - - 0.20 0.60 0.40 1.00
0.3 Frontier Strategy Group - - - - - -
Goldman Sachs 0.10 0.10 0.20 0.20 0.60 1.00
2015 2016
HSBC 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.40 0.60
ING 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.15 0.50 0.50
0.2
Intesa Sanpaolo 0.10 0.10 0.16 0.15 - -
Japan Research Inst. 0.10 0.10 - - - -
JPMorgan 0.05 - - - 0.35 -
Julius Baer 0.10 0.10 - - 0.60 0.85
0.1
KBC 0.10 - - - 1.35 -
Mizuho Research Inst. 0.05 0.05 0.17 0.17 0.50 0.65
Nomura 0.07 0.07 - - 0.60 1.05
0.0
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nordea 0.10 0.10 - - - -
Oxford Economics - - 0.12 0.13 0.18 0.26
Raiffeisen Research 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.40 0.50
Scotiabank - - - - - -
25 | 10-Year Bond Yield | in %
Standard Chartered 0.10 0.10 - - - -
6 UBS 0.05 0.05 0.20 0.25 0.60 1.00
Japan
United States Unicredit 0.10 0.10 - - - -
Germany Summary
Minimum 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.18 0.25
4 Maximum 0.10 0.10 0.20 0.60 1.35 1.05
Median 0.10 0.10 0.15 0.14 0.50 0.65
Consensus 0.08 0.08 0.14 0.18 0.53 0.70
History
2 30 days ago 0.08 0.08 0.14 0.20 0.53 0.70
60 days ago 0.08 0.08 0.14 0.19 0.53 0.70
90 days ago 0.08 0.08 0.16 0.23 0.61 0.82
0
2000 2005 2010 2015
26 | 10-Year Bond Yield | evol. of fcst
1.6
1.2
Notes and sources

0.8
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Bank of Japan
(BoJ), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve Board (Fed). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics
2015 2016
Consensus Forecast.
23 Overnight Call Rate in % (eop).
0.4 24 Overnight Call Rate in %, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
25 10-year benchmark bond yield (eop).
26 10-year benchmark bond yield, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Monetary Sector | Exchange rate
27 | Exchange Rate | JPY per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | JPY per USD Exchange Rate | JPY per USD

BBVA Research 132.0 148.0
Berenberg - -
120 BMO Capital Markets 125.0 130.0
115 BNP Paribas 128.0 135.0
105 Citigroup Global Mkts 130.4 134.4
Commerzbank 125.0 -
95 Credit Agricole 130.0 138.0
90 Credit Suisse 127.0 -
Daiwa 120.0 120.0
DekaBank 130.0 138.0
75 75 Deutsche Bank 125.0 -
2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
DIW Berlin - -
DZ Bank - -
29 | JPY per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst 30 | JPY per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst EIU 125.4 124.2
Frontier Strategy Group - -
150 150
Maximum Goldman Sachs 130.0 135.0
Consensus HSBC 128.0 130.0
Minimum ING 130.0 130.0
130
130
JPMorgan 128.0 -
110
Julius Baer 120.0 120.0
KBC 125.0 -
110
Lloyds TSB 125.0 125.0
90
Maximum Mizuho Research Inst. 125.0 128.0
Consensus Nomura 125.0 130.0
Minimum Nordea 130.0 135.0
90 70
Raiffeisen Research 130.0 -
Scotiabank 125.0 131.0
31 | JPY per USD 2015 | Panelist Distribution Standard Chartered 120.0 -
UBS 125.0 130.0
50%
Unicredit 132.0 -
Summary
40% Minimum 120.0 120.0
Maximum 140.0 148.0
30%
Median 126.2 130.0
Consensus 127.0 131.0
History
20%
30 days ago 126.8 130.2
60 days ago 126.8 131.3
10% 90 days ago 124.4 128.6
0%
< 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 > 145
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are
from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
27 Exchange rate, JPY per USD (eop).
28 Quarterly exchange rate, JPY per USD (eop).
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months.
30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months.
31 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

External Sector | Current Account Balance
32 | Current Account | % of GDP 33 | Curr Account | Q1 12-Q4 16 | % of GDP Current Account Balance | % of GDP

Japan G7 BBVA Research 1.0 0.8
Berenberg 1.0 1.2
4 2 BMO Capital Markets - -
BNP Paribas - -
2 1 Citigroup Global Mkts 2.8 2.7
Commerzbank - -
Credit Agricole 0.9 1.0
0 0 Credit Suisse 2.7 1.6
Daiwa 3.4 3.8
DekaBank 2.0 1.5
2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
DIW Berlin - -
DZ Bank - -
34 | Current Account 2015 | evol. of fcst 35 | Current Account 2016 | evol. of fcst EIU 3.7 6.0
Frontier Strategy Group - -
4 6
Goldman Sachs 2.3 2.5
HSBC 2.7 0.8
ING - -
4
Intesa Sanpaolo - -
2
Japan Research Inst. - -
JPMorgan - -
2
Julius Baer - -
KBC - -
0
Lloyds TSB - -
0
Maximum Maximum Mizuho Research Inst. 2.9 2.7
-2 -2
Scotiabank 0.9 1.2
36 | Current Account 2015 | Panelist Distribution Standard Chartered 0.8 1.2
UBS 1.5 1.7
50%
Unicredit 1.3 1.4
Summary
40% Minimum 0.8 0.8
Maximum 3.7 6.0
30%
Median 2.0 1.5
Consensus 2.1 2.1
History
20%
30 days ago 1.7 1.6
60 days ago 1.4 1.4
10% 90 days ago 0.9 1.1
0%
< -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 > 5.5
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are
from the the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
32 Current account balance as % of GDP.
33 4-quarter moving average of current account balance as % of GDP.
34 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
35 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.
36 Current account balance as % of GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration
of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger
number of panelists.

Fact Sheet
General Data Japan in the Region

Official name: Japan Population | %-share in G7 GDP | %-share in G7
Capital: Tokyo (35.7m)
Osaka (18.8m)
Nagoya (8.9m)
Japan Japan
Canada
Area (km2): 377,915 Italy 4.7%
16.9% Italy Canada 13.0%
8.0% 6.0% 5.0%
Population (million, 2014 est.): 127
France
Population density (per km2, 2014): 336 France
8.5%
8.0%
Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): -0.1 United

United Kingdom
Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 84.5 Kingdom 8.3%
8.6%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2002): < 1.0
Language: Japanese Germany
Germany
10.9%
10.8% United United
Measures: Metric system States States
42.4% 48.8%
Time: GMT+9
Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2013)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 50.4 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 115 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12 2005-07 2008-10 2011-13
100 120
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 86.3
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 28.8 Agriculture 100 Net Exports
80
Energy (2012) 80
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1,568 Manufacturing Investment

60
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 20,306 60
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 966

40 Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 921 40 Other Industry
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 136 20
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 4,695 20 Private
Services
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 1,259 0 Consumption
Transportation (2013) 0 -20
Airports: 175
Railways (km): 27,182
Roadways (km): 1,210,251 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 1,770 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Tokyo, Yokohama, Nagoya
Political Data U.S.A.

U.S.A.
8.8%
Other
17.8% Australia
21.1%
Prime Minister: Shinz Abe Other
27.3%
6.4%
Last elections: 15 December 2014 EU-27

9.4%
Next elections: 13 January 2019 LatAm Exports EU-27
10.2% Imports
5.0%
Central Bank Governor: Haruhiko Kuroda Thailand
5.5%
Other Asia
Korea Other Asia
ex-Japan
7.7% China ex-Japan
14.6%
21.3% 26.8%
China
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings 18.1%
Agency Rating Outlook

Moodys: A1 Stable
S&P: AA- Negative Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: A+ Negative
Food Other
Other
Strengths Weaknesses
11.1% 8.9% 2.9%

Highly developed infrastructure Rapidly ageing population

Net international creditor Large fiscal deficit and public
Mineral
Exclusive geographic position in debt Exports Fuels Imports Manufact.
Products
33.3%
a dynamic region 47.8%
Manufact. Ores &

Products Metals
88.9% 7.1%

FOCUSECONOMICS Calendar
Economic Release Calendar
April 2015
Date Country Event

31 March Canada January Monthly GDP
31 March Euro area February Unemployment
31 March Euro area March Consumer Prices (*)
31 March Italy March Consumer Prices (*)
31 March United States March Consumer Confidence
31 March United States January S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
1 April Italy March Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI
1 April Japan Q1 2015 Tankan Business Confidence
1 April United Kingdom March Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
1 April United States March ISM Manufacturing
3 April United States March Unemployment
6 April Canada March Ivey PMI
7 April Japan Central Bank Meeting
7 April Switzerland February Retail Sales
8 April Switzerland March Consumer Prices
9 April Germany February Industrial Production
9 April Germany February Merchandise Trade
9 April United Kingdom Central Bank Meeting
10 April Canada March Housing Starts
10 April France February Industrial Production
10 April United Kingdom February Industrial Production
13 April Italy February Industrial Production
13 April Japan February Machinery Orders
14 April Canada March Teranet House Price Index
14 April Euro area February Industrial Production
14 April Italy March Consumer Prices
14 April United Kingdom March Consumer Prices
14 April United States March Retail Sales
15 April Canada Central Bank Meeting
15 April Euro area Central Bank Meeting
15 April France March Consumer Prices
17 April Canada March Consumer Prices
17 April Euro area March Consumer Prices
17 April Japan March Consumer Confidence
17 April United Kingdom April Unemployment
17 April United States March Consumer Prices
22 April Japan March Merchandise Trade
22 April United Kingdom Minutes of Central Bank Meeting
23 April Euro area April Markit Composite PMI (*)
23 April France April Markit Composite PMI (*)
23 April France April Business Confidence
23 April Germany April Markit Composite PMI (*)
23 April Germany May Consumer Confidence
23 April Japan April Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI
(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

FOCUSECONOMICS April 2015
Economic Release Calendar
Date Country Event

24 April Germany April Business Confidence
28 April France April Consumer Confidence
28 April United Kingdom Q1 2015 National Accounts (*)
28 April United States April Consumer Confidence
28 April United States Febuary S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
29 April Euro area April Economic Sentiment
29 April Germany April Consumer Prices (*)
29 April Italy April Consumer Confidence
29 April Italy April Business Confidence
29 April United States Central Bank Meeting
29 April United States Q1 2015 National Accounts (first estimate)
30 April Canada February Monthly GDP
30 April Euro area March Unemployment
30 April Euro area April Consumer Prices (*)
30 April Italy April Consumer Prices (*)
30 April Japan Central Bank Meeting
30 April Japan March Industrial Production
30 April Switzerland April KOF Indicator
30 April United Kingdom April Nationwide House Price Index (**)
30 April United Kingdom April GfK NOP Consumer Confidence (**)
1 May Italy April Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI
1 May Japan March Consumer Prices
1 May United Kingdom April Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
1 May United States April ISM Manufacturing
2 May United States April Consumer Prices
(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

FOCUSECONOMICS
Notes and Statements

Notes April 2015
PUBLICATION NOTE
Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by
FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual
figures due to different forecast panels.
The GDP-weighted averages for the world refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a
monthly basis, and include the following countries and regions, comprising more than 90% of total
global output:
G7 (Group of Seven, 7 countries): Canada, Japan, United Kingdom and United States; France,
Germany and Italy are also Euro area countries.
Euro area (18 countries): Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece,
Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and
Spain.
Nordic Economies (5 countries): Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Iceland. Finland is also a Euro
area member.
Eastern Europe (14 countries): Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania,
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CONSENSUS FORECAST

Japan April 2015

PUBLICATION DATE 31 March 2015

The economy rebounded in Q4 as the negative impact of the VAT hike

Overall inflation fell from Januarys 2.4% to 2.2% in February, which

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |2

REAL SECTOR | Decline in manufacturing PMI continues in March

The deterioration reflected slower rates of expansion in orders and employment.

Note: Markit/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. Readings above

On an annual basis, industrial output fell 2.6% in February, which followed

-3 -6 Meanwhile, the Survey of Production Forecast showed that manufacturers

REAL SECTOR | Machinery orders contract in January

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |3

in January over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which

OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence hits six-month high in February

Februarys result reflected a strong increase in the overall livelihood category

MONETARY SECTOR | Core inflation slows to nearly one-year low in

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |4

MONETARY SECTOR | Bank of Japan refrains from adding stimulus

Exchange Rate | JPY per USD

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |5

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Trade balance records smallest deficit in 20

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |6

Economic Indicators | 2010 - 2019

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |7

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

Notes and sources

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |8

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

6 | Consumption | variation in % Consumption and Investment

4 Consumption Gross Fixed Inv. Private Non-res. Inv.

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

2 Notes and sources

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast |9

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Exports and Imports 10 | Exports | variation in %

BBVA Research 3.8 3.4 4.8 4.3 15

Deutsche Bank 8.0 7.6 4.4 6.8

Mizuho Research Inst. 6.0 6.1 2.4 4.7

Minimum 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.0 10

13 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 10

Real Sector | Additional Forecasts

14 | Industry | variation in % Industry, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance

20 Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balance

17 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Notes and sources

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 11

Monetary Sector | Inflation

4 4 Individual Forecasts 2015 2016

Notes and sources

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 12

Monetary Sector | Interest Rates

8 Overnight 3-Month 10-Year Bond

26 | 10-Year Bond Yield | evol. of fcst

Notes and sources

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 13

Monetary Sector | Exchange rate

135 135 Individual Forecasts 2015 2016

Notes and sources

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 14

External Sector | Current Account Balance