Professional Documents
Culture Documents
November 2015
1
About this
4.0 Conclusions and Contents
implications
page 37 1.0 Global context Introduction 2
Evolution of energy and the role of Key insights 3
publication
page 4
different technologies in the short, An overview of the energy landscape.
1.0 Global context 4
medium and long terms.
The analysis is, of course, based on what we know today. In that sense it can only
ever be a snapshot of new and emerging technologies some, such as carbon
3.0 145
External perspectives
capture and storage, are still in their infancy; others, such as solar photovoltaic (PV),
are developing quickly. We must also acknowledge the impact that breakthroughs
2.0 Energy resources Within this publication there are six in other sectors, such as data analytics, will have in helping us to meet global
page 8 opinion pieces authored by a range of energy demand in the most effective way. This trend of convergence between
2.1 Overview of technologies industry experts, including IHS Energy,
sectors is already making an impact.
that will enable improvements Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Ford
3.0 Natural resource in recovery of fossil and Motor Company, Princeton University, Naturally, the future is uncertain. This analysis looks at todays trends and the
non-fossil resources. Tsinghua University and Masdar Institute implications those trends may have for future governments, businesses and
constraints
page 25 of Science and Technology. wider society.
Impact of constraints related to The opinion pieces can be found on
water, minerals, land and climate pages 14, 19, 23, 28, 32 and 36.
on technology choices. 2.1 Conversion and end use
page 15
Comparative overview of electricity generation,
fuels production and vehicle technologies.
BP Technology Outlook Introduction 2
Introduction
We live in a world of rapid change where developments in For many years at BP we have regularly the industry to develop new technologies renewables and developments in areas
assessed energy technology developments, to reduce costs; however, the situation such as battery storage and smart energy
technology can transform societies, economies and industries. looking back to learn lessons and looking reminds us that energy is influenced by systems will widen options in an already
In the corporate world, history tells us that companies that do forward to anticipate the trends that will the interplay of many different factors. competitive market.
not anticipate or adapt to new technologies struggle to survive. shape our industry and others.
Technologies such as enhanced oil recovery, Societys challenge is how to balance
On the other hand, companies with leading technologies are BP Technology Outlook marks the first advanced seismic imaging, and digitization mitigating climate change while at
often the most competitive and successful. time we have shared the outcomes of our will have a huge impact on which of the the same time providing the energy
analysis with the wider world. It sets out available fossil resources we develop, how, security and affordability that drives
how technology could shape our energy where and when. Innovation will not only socio-economic development. The energy
landscape over the next 30 to 40 years. help to sustain the supply of hydrocarbons, industry can assist in the transition to
it will enable renewable resources most a more sustainable economy if policy
The analysis shows that the world is not
notably solar and wind to be more frameworks are developed to promote
running out of resources for its energy
competitive, changing the merit order of investment in lower-carbon technology.
needs. Fossil fuels of oil, gas and coal,
investment and resource development.
along with uranium, are plentiful while the Our aim for this publication, similar to
alternatives of renewable energies do not In terms of energys end use for transport, BP Energy Outlook 2035, and BP Statistical
deplete by definition. With existing and liquid fuels, including biofuels, are likely Review of World Energy 2015, is to make
incremental technology advances, we to continue as the major source of a valuable contribution to the debate about
have abundant and technically accessible transport fuel for at least the next 30 how best to shape a secure, affordable and
resources to meet foreseeable global years. They will be used more efficiently sustainable energy future. I hope you find it
primary energy demand out to 2050 as vehicles and engines become lighter and interesting and useful.
and beyond. The extent to which each smarter. In power generation, as well as
fuel is used depends on many factors. increasing contributions from renewables,
These include technology and policy new opportunities such as a global shift Bob Dudley
but also capital. At the time of writing, towards natural gas, improved energy Group Chief Executive
an abundance of supply and a fall-off in efficiency and, ultimately, carbon capture November 2015
demand growth have driven energy prices and storage technology will help us to
down and constrained the funds available move towards a lower-carbon future.
for investment. Such price falls compel Meanwhile, further falls in the costs of
BP Technology Outlook Key insights 3
Key insights
What the analysis shows
x2
technologies
working in unison.
EM
2050 E
In the past
30 years energy
consumption
RG
has doubled.
IN
G
EC
1800
ON
IN
Y
NC
OM
Which technologies will be most The journey so far On the supply side, technology has helped
DU
TA
Since 1800 much of the world has the energy industry discover more oil and
ST
IES
LIFE EXPEC significant in the world of energy
OLOGIES
RIA
industrialized, and the average life gas than society has consumed. Proved oil
in the coming decades? In this expectancy has doubled from 30 to 60 reserves, for example, now stand at more
LIZATION
1900 publication, we review the range years. It took all of human history for the than twice the level they were at in 1980.
of technologies used to find, worlds population to reach one billion in Key technologies driving this phenomenon
ECHN
1820; today it is seven billion and is forecast include advances in seismic imaging that
SED
EA
This transformation has been largely fuelled reservoirs more accurately, and new
CR
UR
develop. We examine the journey by coal, oil and gas providing heat, power techniques to improve oil recovery that
N
T
that energy is likely to take and mobility, which in turn has helped drive prolong production from reservoirs.
I
FU
2000 and the technologies with the Meanwhile, other technologies such as
SE
N living standards.
LI potential to be significant at each horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing
I
VI The past decade and a half has seen a have opened up significant shale oil and
NG stage.
STA surge in these trends, driven by demand gas formations. Resources are now
NDAR
2020 DS from emerging economies, led by China and plentiful and the concern about oil and
India. Consumption of energy has almost gas running out has all but disappeared.
doubled. Although energy has played a The resources are unevenly spread,
ES There are now major part in lifting millions out of poverty however, with four countries accounting
NC
Y ADVA more than twice in recent decades, many lack the access for more than 50% of proved oil reserves.
TECHNOLOG the global proved to energy taken for granted in advanced The same is true for gas1. With such
oil reserves that
economies. For example, more than a billion disparities between where energy is
there were in 1980.
people still live without electricity. located and where it is used, net consumer
countries often seek to increase their
The carbon dioxide
domestic production and limit imports to
created by consuming
fossil fuels will continue BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015.
1 enable energy security.
to be a major issue. Four countries control more than 50% of the worlds
proved oil reserves (Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Canada
The 201415 drop in and Iran). Four countries control more than 50%
the oil price will drive Technologies, such as horizontal of the worlds gas reserves (Russian Federation, Iran,
further efficiency in drilling and hydraulic fracturing, Qatar and Turkmenistan).
oil production. have opened up significant shale
oil and gas formations.
BP Technology Outlook 1.0 Global context 5
Global primary energy consumption by region At the time of writing, the abundance of The journey ahead storage (CCS), a process whereby CO2 is
new supplies, coupled with a slow down BP Energy Outlook 2035 sets out how we collected from industrial exhaust streams
20
Other non-OECD in demand growth for energy in developed believe the journey will continue, based and injected into underground storage sites,
18
economies, has led to a dramatic drop in on a series of projections on current and is only now starting to be demonstrated
Billion tonnes of oil equivalent (toe)
16 Non-OECD Asia
oil prices. Demand is likely to grow but, expected trends in supply, demand, policy at scale.
14 with resources being so plentiful, industry and technology. Energy consumption
OECD Governments around the world have given
12 will need to adapt and be resilient to could grow by around 37% in the next two
some support to lower-carbon energy
10 lower prices. decades. Almost all this growth in energy
through many measures. These include
8 use an estimated 96% of it comes from
The past two decades have also highlighted emissions limits for vehicles and industrial
6 non-OECD3 economies, led by China and
the environmental challenges of using fossil plants, quotas that mandate certain
India. That level of growth in energy use
4 fuels. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions proportions of renewable energy in power
could result in CO2 emissions increasing
2 have risen in the past two centuries and or transport, and subsidies such as tax
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035.
by 25% by 2035.
0 have been increasing by more than 2% credits and feed-in tariffs to help lower-
per year in the twenty-first century1. Policymakers face multiple challenges in carbon energy compete with fossil fuels.
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Carbon dioxide (CO 2) from fossil-fuel use seeking to set frameworks for energy.
accounts for around two-thirds of the total2.
On the one hand, there is a continuing
Consumption by final sector The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
and pressing need to improve access to
20 Change (IPCC) states: Without additional
Transport affordable energy for the billions who need
mitigation efforts beyond those in place
18 it in places such as Africa and Asia.
Billion tonnes of oil equivalent (toe)
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
BP Technology Outlook 1.0 Global context 6
However, renewables (excluding large-scale The role of technology Three priorities, therefore, recur throughout
hydro electricity and the use of biomass Technology underpins all these energy this publication:
in small-scale heating and cooking) still sources and therefore has an important
Energy security and growing
only make up around 3% of world primary role to play in the energy future.
demand given increasing demand
energy. While they are the fastest growing
In Chapter 2, we examine current and and concerns around energy security,
type of energy, they are only expected
future energy technology options, covering technologies for efficiently capturing
to reach around 8% by 2035. Responses
production, conversion and consumption. and utilizing primary energy resources
to the accident at the Fukushima nuclear
We also look at the scale and nature of will remain important.
power plant in Japan in 2011 have slowed
natural energy resources.
down the growth of nuclear power, which Affordability pressure on the industry
currently only accounts for around 4% of In Chapter 3, we consider the forces that to keep delivering energy competitively
global primary energy consumption. may influence the directions taken by means that technologies enabling
energy technology in the future. Firstly, energy to be produced and consumed
Many governments, businesses, including
we cover constraints relating to natural at a lower cost are in demand.
BP, and experts believe a decisive shift to
resources, including potential areas of
Technology has an lower-carbon energy can best be driven by Lower-carbon energy the risk
important role to play in scarcity, such as water and minerals,
putting an effective price on carbon, raising of climate change means that
the production of energy and the impact of carbon in the atmosphere
the costs of consuming higher-carbon- technologies limiting and, in time,
for domestic, commercial as a driver of climate change. Secondly, we
and industrial use across content energy, and tilting the economic reducing GHG emissions by increasing
review emerging technologies that are not
the globe, as well as in balance in favour of lower-carbon options. the efficiency of fossil-energy
widely used today and assess the potential
all modes of transport. consumption, or enabling switching
influence these may have in the future.
Miami, Florida, US. to a lower-carbon energy, will be a
In Chapter 4, we draw some conclusions major feature of the journey ahead.
from the way energy has evolved to date
These objectives are not ranked in order.
and the role different technologies might
It is for governments, regions and ultimately
play in delivering more energy to more
consumers to decide which needs are most
people at lower cost in the future. We also
pressing and how the balance between
assess how the growth in demand can be
these imperatives can be best achieved.
met while meeting GHG-emission-reduction
targets and moving to a lower-carbon
energy system.
BP Technology Outlook 77
Technologies to meet
energy demand
As energy demand grows in the coming decades, securing access to resources will
continue to be essential. Through technology, we will be increasingly able to recover
more from known resources and make those that currently face technical and cost
challenges more affordable.
North As energy demand grows in the The International Energy Agency (IEA) thermal energy, while showing promise, are
America coming decades, securing access forecasts that by 2050 the worlds annual still in their infancy. Here too, technology
demand for energy will have risen from will play a vital role in their progress.
60 billion toe/yr
toe/yr* to new resources will continue todays level of nearly 13 billion tonnes of
In the meantime, as these lower-carbon
Global technically Nuclear to be essential. Technology will oil equivalent (toe) to between around 16 to
Offshore (uranium) technologies develop largely by becoming
wind recoverable increasingly enable us to recover 22 billion toe2. How close the outcome is
cheaper and more efficient the challenge
to the lower level depends on progress in
more from known resources and
energy in 2050 40 using energy more efficiently and therefore
is to identify, access and convert fossil-fuel
455
19,020
Onshore make those that currently face using less of it in total. Although demand
resources more efficiently as we transition
wind to a lower-carbon future.
technical and cost challenges is strong, our analysis shows that there are
more affordable. plentiful energy resources available to meet We present an overview of lower-carbon
EJ/yr
Biomass it, both conventional fossil-fuel energy and resources later, but start by considering
Middle East renewable and alternative forms. the future impact of technology on oil and
billion toe/yr* 40 billion toe/yr*
Indeed, several resources including wind
gas resources.
*tonnes of oil equivalent Oil
and solar could meet that demand on their
per year Gas
own if they were backed up by conventional
Coal Technology will help unlock future oil
Nuclear (uranium) sources of energy to counteract the
and gas resources and reduce costs
Solar challenges posed by intermittency, or
105 Biomass
of extraction
supported by wide-scale energy storage.
Onshore wind At issue though, is the practicality of We calculate that around 45 trillion boe
Offshore wind
providing energy to consumers when and of oil and gas were originally in place
Geothermal
Ocean (e.g. wave, tidal, thermal) where it is needed, at a price that is of which only 2 trillion boe have been
Hydroelectricity affordable and at a scale that is acceptable. produced to date. Ongoing development
Solar
It will be for communities and policymakers of these reservoirs can produce enough
1
This represents the energy resource potential per to meet anticipated global demand for the
to judge the practicality as well as the social
South and Asia Pacific year based on the availability of the underlying
source of energy, including locally sourced uranium and environmental acceptability of taking foreseeable future.
Central America 105 billion toe/yr* for nuclear, without reference to economic
viability. Fossil and uranium resources have been such steps. The availability of resources therefore is
annualized over a 50-year period for comparison with
35 billion toe/yr* renewables. We must also acknowledge that some less of a challenge than the impact of their
consumption on the sustainability of
Africa Energy Technology Perspectives 2014, IEA.
2 resource bases, such as wave and ocean
A geologist conducts
seismic interpretation on
35%
large screens displaying
detailed data in the Highly
Immersive Visualization
Environment in Jordan,
Middle East.
Technologies such as next-generation EOR, seismic
Aerial view from a Bristow imaging, and well construction and intervention
Super Puma helicopter
of a Petroleum Geo-Services could increase recoverable oil and gas resources by
Ramform Sterling seismic 2 trillion boe (~35%) by 2050.
vessel in the Ceduna
Basin, Australia.
and oil sands. Although no technological Technology advances will change the relative cost competitiveness of resource types
Seismic imaging breakthroughs are required to develop
unconventional resources, there are likely Technology improvements
Seismic imaging technologies underpin exploration deep into the Earths subsurface.
These technologies can be used for oil and gas (and other minerals) resource to be significant above-ground challenges. to 2050 will enable us to
2012
identification, access, exploration and recovery. The emergence of three-dimensional These will include government policy, recover more resources than
y
av
unconventional resources. The latter
he
The technically recoverable oil and gas Technology advances will not only extend
er
y
require different production methods and
at
ra
er
av
resource base could be increased by
w
supply from existing oil and gas resource
t
at
he
ex
er
ep
w
extraction technologies and include oil and
s
at
e
re
re
re
l
nd
de
il
oi
w
around 1.9 trillion boe to 4.8 trillion boe by types, but can also open access
al
pw
to
ho
ho
ho
lo
sh
sa
e
a-
gas found in shale rock, tight formations
gh
al
al
ee
ns
ns
ns
ltr
il
il
Sh
Sh
Ti
O
O
D
U
Data excludes natural gas hydrates and deep coal.
Source: BP.
BP Technology Outlook 2.0 Energy resources 11
25%
Subsurface imaging, drilling and completions, facilities
and digital technologies could all contribute to reducing
todays cost of supplying oil and gas resources by as
much as 25% by 2050.
0% Reducing
Technology is likely to have the most
industry costs
-2% Technology could reduce
impact on resources that are difficult
industry costs by ~25% to produce or those that are sparsely
-5% -4% exploited today such as ultra-deepwater
and unconventionals. At a time of lower
prices, revenues and capital spending,
digital technologies including sensors,
y
er
ov
ec
-13%
lr
oi
ed
g
e
nc
in
l
iti
ls
continue to open
ag
ha
cil
el
ig
En
Seismic
Well construction and
imaging
intervention, in tandem with
imaging technologies, are
vital for increasing recovery
Re
of unconventional resources. Technically
recoverable oil and gas
cov
in the conversion of coal, rather than its
Enhanced oil recovery is the 4.8 Digital technologies extraction, where the greatest opportunities
biggest contributor to increasing Projected oil and gas tr
era
Directional
recoverable oil volumes. demand to 2050 2.5 drilling
Digital technologies in addition to seismic imaging will make radical lie for technological advances, particularly
tri
ill
changes to how we find, extract and use energy, providing opportunities
ble w
with ultra-supercritical and integrated
ll
io
for more efficient operations through unparalleled levels of data analysis. gasification combined-cycle power plants
nb
io
In the oil and gas industry, sensor technologies in equipment such as pumps, wells and that can reduce the level of carbon
nb
arre
ith
appliances are increasingly being used. When connected to data collection mechanisms, emissions per unit of power produced.
oe
they provide real-time information on field activities. Intelligent wells providing updates Being able to access very deep or very
ls of oil equ
todays techno
2050
on well condition from top to bottom are now becoming a reality, a development that complex seams would require incremental,
reduces both non-productive time and cost. Together with the rapid development of rather than step, changes in technology.
data analytics and management techniques, the industry can find oil and gas resources Techniques such as underground coal
faster and more effectively, and operate refineries and manufacturing plants more gasification could make resources available
efficiently. Digital technologies also provide a route to faster and better decision-making
2.0
i
subsea.
v
t ri
ale
facilities
lli o
nt
logy
bo data analytics and automated systems technological improvements in oil and
n
)
0.7 tri reducing costs. These technologies have in all other resource types, with nascent conventional sources of uranium for nuclear
l li o n important roles in enabling and integrating technologies in areas such as marine and fission are abundant and there has been
rov
boe
other technologies, and enhancing safety offshore wind having the most scope limited exploration. Although technology is
ed
and reliability. for improvement. likely to have the most impact in conversion
Technologies for
re
After oil, coal is the second largest where atoms split to create energy, there is
ve Enhanced oil unconventional
co
1
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2014.
BP Technology Outlook 2.0 Energy resources | External perspective 14
The first is in raising short-term production, the A common thread running through these areas is
denominator in the cost-per-barrel equation. The other the increasingly critical and enabling role of digital
involves attacking capital costs and operating expenses technologies. Evidence analysed by IHS Energy in the
Data-driven past decade confirms that digital technologies applied
analytics head on. Both place an emphasis on efficiency.
in practice can improve oilfield performance on several
A focus on efficiency is not new to the oil and gas sector, fronts, including:
but IHS Energy observes that until recently it has been
limited to select industry pockets of excellence. One
such pocket has been the exploitation of shale gas and
tight oil resources. Their phenomenal growth since
the late 2000s can be attributed largely to continuous The new emphasis on efficiency places high demands
improvements in manufacturing-style drilling and well- on a digital infrastructure that is able to collect, transmit,
completion technologies and techniques. In the lower- analyse and act on data acquired throughout asset
Robotics and operations. It is also setting oil and gas companies on
unmanned systems oil-price environment post-2014, producers need to
mirror such improvements across their broader portfolios. the path to becoming true digital organizations, thereby
The resulting areas of active technology development that accelerating a movement that was already under way.
External perspective aim to deliver on these expectations include: More broadly, a host of upstream technology innovations
seismic imaging, drilling, engineering, enhanced oil
Prioritizing technologies
repetitive oil and gas activities. Drilling automation is an
opportunity area that is attracting significant research
recovery, digital technologies will help to unlock oil
and gas resources; however, the industry will need to
be nimble to prioritize different technology elements
through the oil and gas price cycles and development attention. throughout the price cycle.
BP Technology Outlook 2.1 Conversion and end use 15
y choices
in power and tran
spo
rta
tio
2.1 Conversion
g
hn
o lo n
and end use
c
Te
x2 x2
-14% -24% Areas of opportunity for cost
reduction in onshore wind
Consistent with historical trends, we would expect turbine technology
the costs of onshore wind and utility-scale solar PV to
continue to decline at around 14% and 24% respectively
per doubling of cumulative installed capacity.
natural gas systems. The future shape of In recent years wind and solar PV Electricity generation technology
the heat sector is likely to be influenced installations have been the dominant form cost trends Onshore wind technologies
most by the relative costs of different of new-build capacity additions in some Incremental improvements in technology Technology advances in onshore wind, such as increasing tower heights, Blades and
control
feedstock options and policies that regions of the world. Their impact on global have continued to feature across most longer rotor blades, improved site optimization and increased turbine efficiency, 25%
could jointly drive greater electrification electricity generation output, however, has conventional electricity generating have led to improvements in recent years in resource capture. For instance,
of heating and decarbonization of the been less significant than this growth might technologies. For instance, in the past increasing the height of towers to accommodate 50-metre-diameter rotor blades,
in average wind speeds of 7.5 metres/second, has increased the amount of wind Drive train
electricity sector. imply because of the intermittent nature decade or so, there have been incremental 10%
of sunlight and wind. Consequently, the advances in combined-cycle gas turbine energy captured by approximately 20%. Turbines with 50-metre-diameter blades and
larger rotors accounted for more than 80% of installed capacity in the US in 2014,
amount of electricity that can be generated (CCGT) power-plant design that have taken Tower
compared with 50% in 2012 and less than 10% in 2009. Advances such as these are
The electricity generation sector for a given period from 1GW of wind or conversion efficiency from approximately 5%
contributing to significant reductions in the levelized cost of electricity for new-build Hub and
solar PV capacity is much lower than from 50% to 53%, on a higher-heating-value onshore wind. nacelle
Current status
1GW of fossil-fuelled or nuclear generation. basis. The recent growth of wind and solar 5%
The electricity sector has long seen Continued advances in onshore wind technology are expected to occur across a
PV capacity has been driven by technology Development
competition between different primary Depending on the location and quality of range of elements such as ground base and structure design technologies to support 15%
advances and economies of scale.
energy feedstocks and conversion the resource, for any given year, average taller towers, and new materials and manufacturing processes to further increase
Consistent with historical trends, we would
technologies, with coal, gas, hydroelectric utilization levels are likely to range from blade sizes and reduce failures at higher loads. Improved blade designs will enable
expect the costs of onshore wind and Balance of
and nuclear each individually providing more 20% to 50% for onshore wind and 10% to construction of larger-scale components, with developments in sensors and control
utility-scale solar PV to continue to decline systems enabling active aerodynamic control throughout the blade length. Better plant
than 15% of annual global electricity supply 25% for solar PV. Despite these relatively 10%
at around 14% and 24% respectively per drive design and improved gearbox reliability, together with prognostic maintenance Grid
at any one time in the past 25 years. In 2014 low levels of potential generation and the
doubling of cumulative installed capacity. systems, predictive technologies and active control systems, will further increase connection and
approximately 90% of global electricity was recent economic downturn placing pressure transmission
This shows how the costs of small turbine reliability and efficiency. In short, significant scope remains for wind
supplied from these sources with a small, on the public finances, which have been 5%
modules, such as onshore wind turbines, technology to improve performance and reduce costs. Lifetime care
but growing 6% from non-hydroelectric needed to subsidize and incentivize their
batteries or solar cells, can decline much 15%
renewable sources (predominantly deployment, wind and solar have grown
faster than those of large capital intensive
bioenergy and onshore wind). Since 2010 significantly, albeit starting from a low base.
modules, such as nuclear or CCS. However, Low-cost
global wind generation capacity has grown
such developments themselves would manufacturing
at an average rate of 17% per year reaching 5%
also benefit from economies of scale and Raw
a total of 370 gigawatts (GW) by the end
mature, extensive supply chains, albeit to material cost
of 2014. A total of 40GW of new solar PV 5%
a lesser extent.
capacity was installed in 2014, almost as
much as the cumulative amount installed up
Source: BP.
to 2010, to reach a total installed capacity of
around 180GW at the end of 2014.
BP Technology Outlook 2.1 Conversion and end use 17
Operators assembling a
turbine rotor at ground-
level, before it is lifted on
to the tower at the Cedar
Creek Wind Farm in Weld
County, Colorado, US.
Increasing contribution from increased penetration of intermittent We estimate that grid integration costs
intermittent renewable generation sources of electricity generation will could range from $8 for each megawatt
For electricity, it is imperative that supply create challenges for the continued stable hour (MWh), supplied by the intermittent
and demand are constantly matched operation of electricity networks, and will generator in a mature, no-growth system
within very narrow operational parameters. result in greater curtailment and/or other with established reserve capacity and
Unplanned or sudden deviations mechanisms for managing over-generation. existing increasingly under-utilized flexible
(intermittency) in electricity supply or The incremental cost of integrating plants providing backup, to $30/MWh for a
demand have been an ever-present intermittent generation such as wind growing system with new flexible gas-fired
challenge for power-system planners and and solar into electricity systems, which plants built to provide backup. Gas-fired
operators seeking to maintain system increases as greater volumes are connected single-cycle gas turbines (SCGT) generally
stability and keep the lights on. to the grid, is generally not included when provide one of the most economically
considering their respective investment viable and immediate options since they
The frequency and magnitude of
economics. It is a highly complex variable are highly responsive and have low
intermittency, however, has grown with
that depends on factors such as generation construction and fixed costs. These are
the addition of some renewable sources
and demand profiles, the scale and variety important considerations when building
of electricity generation, particularly wind
of the installed generation base (including plants that will have low operating hours
and solar PV in recent years. Although no
the reserve margin) and the levels of and can be deployed quickly and at scale.
generating asset will ever be 100% reliable, flexibility and reliability inherent in any Integration costs are likely to be even higher
gas, coal, nuclear, biomass, geothermal given network. if intermittent renewables provide the major
and some forms of hydroelectric plant are
To manage intermittency, there are share of electricity production.
considered sufficiently reliable (at rates
higher than 80% availability) to be deemed essentially four technology-based options: Looking at the medium to long term,
firm (dependable) and therefore able to 1. Increased connectivity and integration of system operators will be able to source
provide baseload generating capacity. transmission and distribution grids. some of the balancing services, required
2. Flexible generation (typically fossil fuelled). to manage intermittency, by deploying
Assuming current levels of system
3. Electricity storage. smart grids enabling greater and more
Solar PV and onshore flexibility, some power systems may be
wind are two 4. Demand response (smart grids). immediate demand response. In the short
able to accommodate 2550% intermittent
technologies that are term, however, these are a more expensive
renewable electricity penetration. Beyond The last two are largely nascent and
destined to play an proposition than sources such as flexible
this level, or if current levels of system currently expensive. Flexible generation
increasingly important generation that are readily available today.
role in the future. flexibility are not maintained, the offers the most immediate solution to
intermittency in many countries.
BP Technology Outlook 2.1 Conversion and end use 18
145
137
133
Electricity generation We see conventional gas (excluding for North America. Although CCS is a
120
technology cost projections imported liquefied natural gas) and coal nascent option, it could provide flexible,
103 107 Public policy measures can vary the cost remaining the lowest-cost options for dependable and near zero-carbon
of electricity generated from power plants generating electricity in North America generation at costs lower than many
84 by requiring the adoption of emission and most other regions through to 2050, renewable generation options.
80 75
74 74 71 control technologies or imposing a cost although it would only take a modest carbon
66
on emissions such as CO2 via a carbon price (~$40/tonne of CO2) for new-build gas
59
tax or emissions trading system. These and increasingly lower-cost renewables to
44 favour the substitution of higher-carbon displace existing coal. In North America,
38
options with lower-carbon ones such as new-build onshore wind farms have the
renewables for fossil fuel or natural gas for potential to provide energy at less than $50/
coal in the fossil-fuel sector. Other public MWh but would require flexible back-up
2012
2050
2012
2050
2012
2050
2012
2050
2012
2050
2012
2050
2012
2050
2050
2012
2050
policy measures, including subsidizing generation, such as gas-fired power, in
lower-carbon technologies such as wind, times of low wind and/or high demand.
solar PV and nuclear, can make them cost
With a higher carbon price, natural gas
competitive. The cost assessments in this
Existing Existing New New Retrofit Onshore Nuclear CCGT with Utility-scale is increasingly advantaged over coal.
combined-cycle coal CCGT coal biomass1 wind carbon capture solar publication do not include any incentives or
gas turbine and storage photovoltaic Without a carbon price and excluding CO2
special provisions for any technology, but
(CCGT) (CCS) 2 transportation and storage costs, adding
do include grid integration costs (ranging
CCS to coal and CCGT plants would
between $8/MWh and $30/MWh) to
Reconfigure coal power plant to biomass power plant.
increase the cost of generation by $25/
1
facilitate a fairer comparison. Solar PV
Power sourced from gas or coal MWh and $16/MWh respectively by 2050.
will remain the lowest cost without
2
Because, in 2012, there were no commercial-scale CCS plants we have not included a cost and wind are particularly sensitive to the
profile for 2012. Zero cost is assumed for CO 2 transportation and storage, because storing However, a higher carbon price makes CCS
a carbon tax or price. quality of their primary energy resource and
CO 2 could have both a net cost (in case of standard CO 2 storage) or a net value (when CO 2 increasingly competitive and consistently
is used for enhanced oil recovery). capital expenditure costs, leading to higher
Renewable power costs will lower cost than nuclear, especially when
Not shown are niche technology options such as geothermal, and even higher-cost uncertainty with their projections.
continue declining. renewable options such as concentrated solar thermal, offshore wind, engineered used with natural gas, as illustrated
geothermal systems, wave, tidal or ocean thermal power.
Values for coal of $80/tonne, gas of $5/mmBtu and pelletized biomass of $80/tonne have
been used for consistency. Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) = 10%.
All assessments exclude incentives and special provisions.
Source: BP.
BP Technology Outlook 2.1 Conversion and end use | External perspective 19
Jenny Chase
Solar Analyst,
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)
External perspective
Liquid fuels, including biofuels, will continue Liquid fuel production cost in North America to 2050
to dominate the transportation market. The costs shown in the chart are our expected case in 2012 US dollars.
$ per gigajoule
The transport sector Raw materials costs typically represent Compared with crude oil and liquid Carbon price of $40 per tonne of CO 2 equivalent
7080% of refining production costs, so products, natural gas is much more difficult 43.0
Brazilian sugar cane is forecast to
Fuels production Fuel production cost
remain the lowest-cost fuel to 2050,
efficiencies in operations and capital to transport over long distances, creating
Global demand for energy for transport even with a carbon price applied.
expenditure, while valuable, will have less niche opportunities for liquids production 35.6 35.0
is likely to be met largely by liquid fuels.
impact on overall fuel production costs. using low-cost gas from stranded fields. 34.4 Lignocellulosic (LC) ethanol is the most
Crude oil will be abundant enough to expensive fuel today, but with technology
Although refining technology is relatively
sustain refining as the major source of Today, production cost is one of the factors advances could be cheaper than corn
mature, we expect that incremental
transport fuels and will offer low feedstock limiting biofuels penetration into the transport 29.0 ethanol in the 2050 timescale.
improvements in refinery efficiencies
and conversion costs. A few alternative fuel market, although some pathways have 26.5
will continue to be made through the Biomass-to-liquids have few opportunities
pathways may compete, such as sugar cane the technical potential to be competitive. 24.5
development of conventional technology to reduce costs and look to remain
ethanol, but most other pathways will need Brazilian sugar cane ethanol can already 22.3 uncompetitive.
and new-build refineries or major upgrades,
major advances. compete economically with fossil fuels, 19.0 19.3
resulting in higher efficiency. Refineries 17.8 17.6
but other types of bioethanol currently
Consumption of energy in the transport will have to adapt to changes in crude
rely on government support. Corn milling
sector is expected to continue growing at composition and impurity levels (nitrogen
and fermentation technologies are mature
approximately 1% per year in the coming and sulphur compounds or metals,
(there are more than 150 plants in the US
decades, although it will slow after 2025. for example) that have an impact on
alone) so they have limited scope to improve
The growth comes primarily from non- processing. In addition, research into new
manufacturing yields and operating costs.
OECD countries due to a rapid increase in vehicle engine technologies may encourage
Roughly half to two-thirds of the production
2012
2050
2012
2050
2012
2050
2012
2050
2012
2050
2012
2050
vehicle ownership there. This is expected changes in fuel quality, such as higher-
cost is due to the price of corn, although this
to be partly offset by a decline in OECD octane gasoline.
may be partly offset by co-products such
demand, caused by vehicle efficiency
The implementation of GTL technologies, as animal feed.The cost of transporting raw
improvements outpacing slower growth in
which make liquid fuels and chemicals biomass is significant. With biomass logistics
the size of the vehicle fleet.
from natural gas, may be spurred by the often constraining the scale of biomass Refinery Gas-to-liquids Biomass-to- Sugar cane Corn ethanol LC
abundance of shale gas in North America. conversion facilities, achieving economies of via syngas liquids ethanol (Brazil) ethanol
Refining, coal- and gas-to-liquids (CTL and via syngas
GTL) and biofuels production are the key Current GTL FischerTropsch technology scale becomes critical.
fuel conversion pathways. Raw materials using natural gas at $34/mmBtu will
Values for oil of $80/bbl Brent, gas of $5/mmBtu, pelletized biomass of $80/tonne and
(or feedstocks), plant, infrastructure and compete today with conventional refining sugar cane of $33/tonne have been used for consistency. Energy grass for LC ethanol
declines from $73/tonne to $44/tonne over the period. 10% cost of capital for fixed-asset
operating costs play out differently in each using crude at $80/per barrel (bbl). investments. No taxes or subsidies included.
of these pathways.
Source: BP.
BP Technology Outlook 2.1 Conversion and end use 21
The cost of producing LC ethanol, which renewable energy content in fuel blends. lubricants. Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
is derived from the de-polymerization and Most gasoline vehicles manufactured to could displace diesel from some of the
fermentation of energy grasses, wood or date have a 10% limit on the amount of heavy-duty market, with compressed
agricultural residues, is around double that ethanol that can be present in the gasoline natural gas (CNG) increasing its share of
of diesel and gasoline when crude oil is at they use. A 16% bio-butanol gasoline blend the light-duty vehicle market in regions with
$80/bbl. To achieve cost parity on an energy would be compatible with these vehicles low-cost natural gas and policy support.
basis with fossil fuels in the US and other and double the renewable energy content,
temperate regions, cellulosic biofuels are helping to transition the ethanol blendwall. Fuel economy of
likely to need policy support for at least a new car fleet
decade or more.
Transport vehicles Fuel economy
20 of
Demand for personal mobility is growing
Vehicle Fleet
There is, however, significant potential to
new
rapidly in the developing world, but slowing
car fleet
3
improve. In particular, better pre-treatment in OECD countries as the market saturates.
20
15 CHINA
quarter to one-third of the total cost of most of the road transportation energy
10
Billions of vehicles
production, depending
2 on local conditions demand worldwide, with some exceptions
and including the value of co-products. such as ethanol in Brazil and the US, and
Improving the yield reduces the feedstock natural gas where available locally at low
10
element of the ethanol production cost and cost, such as in Argentina, Bangladesh, 5
also reduces the size of equipment needed Egypt and Pakistan.
and hence capital1 expenditure. In part, the
Vehicles powered by liquid fuels, including
long-term economics depend on technology 5
biofuels, are likely to dominate global sales 0
development, but will also be influenced
through to 2035 and beyond. We expect 1975 1995 2015 2035
by improvements arising through
the average efficiency of new light-duty
experience from developed commercial- US
Vehicles powered by
0 vehicles offered to the market to improve 0
scale LC operations.
1975 1995 2015 2035 per year as a result of increased 1975 1995 2015 2035 liquid fuels, including
by 23% European
Union biofuels, are likely to
Alternative bio-molecules, such as bio- hybridization and improved powertrains
dominate global sales
butanol, provide anSource
optionBPto increase
Energy the2035
Outlook combined with advanced fuels and China Source: BP. through to 2035.
*New European Driving Cycle
BP Technology Outlook 2.1 Conversion and end use 22
Technicians preparing
a car for fuel economy
testing at BPs
Technology Centre in
Bochum, Germany.
Vehicle refuelling at
BP service station,
Chicago, Illinois, US. Technical potential of transport vehicles to 2050
Medium-sized passenger vehicle cost (in 2012 US cents per km).
efficiency of diesel engines. fuel-cell vehicles in certain markets, start to become economically competitive.
1.5
and some other Original Equipment Fuel-cell vehicles are currently about
Advances in battery technology mean
Manufacturers (OEMs) plan launches soon. 19.8 four times the cost of a conventional
that electric vehicles are likely to be a
1 Several OEMs have also built up their vehicle. Very significant technical progress,
viable future option, especially in urban 16.8
as well as an economic hydrogen
capability in fuel cell technology. However,
environments where stopstart driving 13.9 14.3 infrastructure, is required for them to
given the technical, hydrogen production, 13.2 12.6
is typical. Hybrid vehicles are becoming become cost competitive.
0.5 storage and refuelling infrastructure 11.4 12.0 11.7 11.4 11.6 11.7
available at more modest costs and, The gains in future vehicle efficiency will
challenges, as well as the relative vehicle
although electric vehicle batteries remain be driven by a shift in vehicle fleet mix
costs (see opposite), it is unlikely that
0 relatively expensive, technology advances toward more fuel-efficient powertrains,
significant adoption of these vehicles will including manufacture of cars with
1975 1995 2015 2035 and economies of scale are likely to reduce
take place in the immediate future. powertrains other than those shown in
2050
2012
2050
2012
2050
2012
2050
2012
2050
2012
2050
2012
2050
2012
their costs over the next two to three
Non-OECD the figure, which may have powertrain
decades. Life-cycle emissions from electric additions (for example, turbocharging)
OECD vehicles vary as the electricity used may and/or combinations (for example,
2010
2050
come from renewables and nuclear power, D D CNG plug-in hybrids).
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035.
or from fossil energy such as coal or gas-
fired power stations. In regions where coal Gasoline Gasoline Diesel Compressed Battery
Diesel Fuel cell
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035. is the primary source of power generation, hybrid natural gas electric
hybrid
hybrid
the overall emissions associated with
electric vehicles can exceed those of diesel
Vehicle cost per kilometre (km) is based on North America average distance travelled of ~194,000km over the vehicle
or non-plug-in hybrid vehicles. life. Fuel cost includes a 10% weighted average cost of capital for fuel production plant with nominal oil and gas
prices of $80/bbl and $5/mmbtu. Vehicle and fuel costs do not include taxes or sales margins.
Source: BP.
BP Technology Outlook 2.1 Conversion and end use | External perspective 23
Andreas Schamel
Director Global Powertrain,
Research and Advanced Engineering, Ford Motor Company
External perspective
Over many years technology has There is no sign of the pace of technological change now are basic levels of hybridization and we can see Engines aside, next steps in computational technology
slowing in the automotive market. So, what technologies opportunities to develop that more. Hybrids still rely could fundamentally change the way in which we
transformed the design and manufacture
might come to the fore in the face of growing customer on efficient combustion engines. Pure electric and drive. For example, the car that handles traffic jams on
of our everyday vehicles. There is more demand, the need for cost competitiveness and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles offer alternative solutions, motorways and returns control to the driver once the
computing power in the average car increasing environmental requirements? although they, too, have their challenges. Unlike a jam clears, has already become a reality. Developments
today than there was in the Apollo 11 combustion engine, a battery must carry the fuel, such as this predict a radically different driving
For the past 100 years, the internal combustion engine the reactant and the waste product within it, resulting environment to that we experience today, just as
space craft when it landed on the
has dominated car manufacturing. It is easy to see in limitations in a cars performance and travelling technology has revolutionized our experience of the
moon in 1969. why, with the availability of large quantities of relatively range. The other challenges are about fuel source automobile in the past 50 years.
cheap oil, combined with the simplicity of the chemical notably whether the electricity is produced from
Advances in design, engineering, computing, materials, reaction involved. Continuing advances in engines, fuels sustainable sources or from fossil fuels and battery
engine efficiency, fuels and lubricants have greatly and lubricants such as boosting and injection charging speed.
improved vehicle reliability, safety and performance
while progressively reducing environmental impact.
Parts for Fords 1.0-litre EcoBoost engine
laid out. The engine was named 2014
International Engine of the Year for the
third year in a row. The engine lowers fuel
consumption without sacrificing power.
BP Technology Outlook 2424
Key influences on
energy technology
So far we have discussed current technologies and how they may develop in the
future. The directions taken by energy technologies depend on many factors beyond
technology and innovation alone. In particular, future outcomes may be influenced
by increasing constraints related to natural resources and new possibilities from
emerging technologies, many of them relevant to a range of industrial sectors.
$2,050
Impact of technology on cost $1,100
$900
of reducing CO2 emissions Passenger cars
500
Downsized gasoline
today vs 2050 450
Emissions reduction in power is $430 Diesel engine
400
generally cheaper than in transport.
Full hybrid e.g.Prius
Recharging an electric
vehicle.
Carbon capture and Flue gas CO2 injector Recycled Separation of Energy efficiency provides CO
Flue gas many
2 for of the CO2 injector doubling in size over the next 20 years, fuel technological advances are required to
storage (CCS) and with CO2 well/s CO2 CO2 from oil with CO storage
most affordable and2 practical means to
well/s
demand is only predicted to rise by 29%, make them more affordable and extend
enhanced oil recovery
(EOR) reduce GHG emissions in the near term. driven mainly by more efficient fuel and their range.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) Today only about 12% of global primary transportation technologies adopted by
Oil export Industrialization and urbanization are making
emissions from power/ energy captured at source ends up as the market. Tailpipe emissions of CO2 have
air quality an increasingly important issue for
industry mitigated by Power station CO2 capture Production useful heat,
Powerlight and motion.
station CO2 Wide-scale
capture fallen in many countries in the past decade
public health. Since 1950 the global urban
capture, transport and fuelled by gas systems wells oil + CO2 fuelled byof
implementation systems
gasenergy-efficiency and government targets exist to continue
injection for EOR. or coal or coal population has increased fivefold, and is
Pure CO2 technologies that could render the entire this downward trajectory. Measures that
for EOR
expected to increase by another 60% by
energy system more efficient would: promote more efficient use of products,
2050, when about 6.3 billion people are
such as raising awareness about energy
Oil-filled Increase affordability (by using Naturally sealed projected to live in urban settlements. In
reservoir formation (reservoir) efficiency or more innovative approaches
less energy). China, rapid urbanization of the population
such as vehicle sharing and dynamic road
has been accompanied by the growing use
Support energy security (by reducing management systems, also have a role
of cars for personal transport, and coal for
import dependence). to play in minimizing consumption and
home heating and power generation.
reducing emissions.
Help sustainability (by reducing
ector Recycled Separation of Flue gas CO2 for CO2 injector Compared with natural gas, combustion
CCS only emissions). Efficient powertrain technologies and
well/s CO2 CO2 from oil with CO2 storage well/s of these fuels releases higher amounts
CO2 emissions internal combustion engines that use
from power/industry In many cases this could be achieved cost of compounds and particulates that have
lower-carbon biofuels offer a particularly
mitigated by capture, effectively. As such, energy efficiency can adverse impacts on human health. A shift
Oil export cost-effective pathway to a lower-carbon
transport and injection be seen as being good for all seasons. In from coal to gas for power and to higher-
in geological storage. future. Electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles
commercial and residential buildings, for efficiency engines and more advanced
Production Power station CO2 capture may provide an increasingly common route
wells oil + CO2 fuelled by gas systems example, where energy consumption is fuels in the transportation sector could
or coal to emissions reduction, providing the power
forecast to grow rapidly, many opportunities substantially cut emissions of harmful
O2 sector is decarbonized in parallel. Our current
R exist for improved design and more efficient particulate matters, and sulphur and
projections suggest that combined hybrid
energy use, which could reduce energy nitrogen oxides.
Oil-filled Naturally sealed and battery electric vehicle sales will grow
reservoir formation (reservoir)
demand.
from approximately 2% of global vehicle
Better product design could also substantially sales in 2014 to approximately 10% in 2025.
reduce carbon emissions. For example, However, even full-battery electric vehicles
despite the global vehicle fleet potentially are not emissions free and significant
BP Technology Outlook 3.0 Natural resource constraints | External perspective 28
External perspective
Energy supply chains are critically dependent 1. Recyclability Materials temperature-resistant permanent magnets.
on several key materials in making them Difficulty in recycling due to the availability Materials are widely used across the This suggests that material design in the
efficient, economic and clean. of suitable technology, logistics and
concentration of materials in end-of-life energy system. There would be no future may well proceed in a transformative
Changes in the energy system, driven by the products. electricity system as we know it without fashion, rather than incrementally.
copper, nor any piston, drilling rig, pylon
Ni Nb P Pt
need for decarbonization, will bring dramatic 2. Substitutability
Ni Nb P Pt
Research shows that many elements have
changes in the demand for certain materials. Loss of performance using alternative or nuclear reactor without chromium for
(non-critical) materials. a wealth of reserves. More importantly,
their corrosion-resistant steel. Material
Time is an important factor in addressing the NICKEL NIOBIUM PHOSPHORUS PLATINUM 3. Processing history has shown that similar to oil and
NICKEL NIOBIUM PHOSPHORUS PLATINUM extraction and production are also energy
criticality of materials. For example, a strike Complexity of production technology. gas reserves of materials are dynamic and
or fire in a large mine could suddenly affect and carbon intensive. Energy technology
4. Reserves that economics, geological understanding
supply (and price) worldwide and it typically choices may, in turn, fundamentally affect
An indication of shortage based on and new technologies continuously drive
takes years for a new mine to progress from reserve-to-production ratios. the requirements for materials and ores.
initial exploration to production. reserve growth to meet demand. In
5. Trade In recent centuries energy demand and its addition, increased recycling rates and
Influence of monopolies and/or
technologies have dramatically increased better recycling technologies together
non-open markets.
the demand for materials. The pursuit of with substitution and more efficient
6. Ecological impact
Impact, including on humans, due to new energy pathways will only be made manufacturing can provide a substantial
toxicity, radioactivity or handling risks. possible by having a sufficient supply contribution to supply. Fortunately, metal-
of critical materials at prices that make based materials can generally be used and
Main uses Main uses
Ag W U
economic sense. repeatedly reused.
RARE EARTH
ELEMENTS
RARE EARTH
ELEMENTS
SILVER
Ag
TUNGSTEN
W
URANIUM
U Automotive Nuclear
Automotive Nuclear
Material complexity also brings risks.
The potential substitutes for most
Ultimately, material reserve is a poor
indicator of criticality. It is the effectiveness
SILVER TUNGSTEN URANIUM
Batteries Oil and gas
Batteries Oil and gas materials are generally inadequate, supply of markets, and the complexity of supply
constrained, non-existent or not yet chains that determine availability of materials
Biofuels Photovoltaics discovered. For example, silver could be a for well-functioning energy systems.
Biofuels Photovoltaics
substitute for copper, but price excludes its
Coal Refining
Coal Refining widespread use. Replacing molybdenum,
Appliances cobalt, nickel or rhenium for specialist
Transmission
Appliances
and lighting
and lighting
Transmission steels with alternatives usually results in
a decrease in performance. There is no
Generation Wind
Generation Wind known substitute for dysprosium used in
Source: Materials critical to the energy industry An introduction (2nd edition).
BP Technology Outlook 3.0 Natural resource constraints 30
Water
Water in Energy
in energy Non-fresh/seawater
Non-fresh water
Ranges
Ranges of of freshwater
freshwater consumption
consumption intensities in key energy sectors.and dry washing 10
intensities
Amounts in key energy
displayed in m3 /TJsectors.
on logarithmic scale. 1 100
Amounts displayed in cubic metres per Freshwater
For power generation,
terajoule freshwater withdrawal
(m3/TJ) on logarithmic scale. intensities are also shown. flooding
Withdrawal occurs when water is removed from surface or groundwater,
0 1,000
atWithdrawal
least temporarily. m 3/TJ
occursConsumption
when waterisisthe portion of withdrawal which
is not returned to the same source from which it was removed. il
removed from surface or groundwater, lo
at least temporarily. Consumption is na
Worldwide, thermal power generation n t io
Non-fresh/seawater in
g
the portion of withdrawal that is not e in 10,000
withdraws 20 times more fresh water o nv
a lm
Non-fresh water
il
returned to the source from which C o
lo
than fossil-fuel extraction. Cand dry washing s
na
a 10 Shale
it was removed.
io
1 G gas
nt
100
ve
Fossil-fuels
on
Conventional Fresh water
nc
gas flooding production
U
100,000
0 1,000
m 3/TJ
Water generation is not consumed but is returned The amount of fresh water used varies
greatly within each energy sector. IL Rain fed
Water use in different energy sectors can to its source. Water consumption in cooling L
O 10
vary greatly depending on local water towers the source of the columns of Best available technologies including N
A G 1 100
reuse, recycling and replacement of I O IN
availability, regulations and technological water vapour associated with power N
T IN 10,000
fresh water could drastically reduce VE M
LE
L
choices. Where water scarcity is an issue, stations can be reduced by alternatively N A
A
water use. CO CO S
SH
0 1,000
A Shale
technology can help reduce demand for using once-through cooling. However, with m 3/TJ G
IL
Gas
O
fresh water. its requirement for larger amounts of water Fossilgasfuels
On average, natural is by far g Conventional
to be withdrawn from and returned to its production
the most water-efficient fossil fuel.
f in
in Gas 100,000
The proportion of fresh water withdrawn For biofuels, the extent to which a crop re n Irrigated
source, the use of once-through cooling il io
for fossil-fuel extraction is less than 0.5% is irrigated is a key factor in freshwater O v at 10,000
may be precluded by constraints on water l ti
consumption; however, economics cu
n
of total freshwater withdrawals worldwide.
t io
e
availability or regulation. usually limit irrigation. an n
va
io
This can be reduced further through rc
l ti
rs
cu
a ve
ug Rain fed
s
technologies that allow reuse, recycling There are also important trade-offs between n Irrigated Oil refining
op
In thermal power generation, the S co 10
cr
or replacement of fresh water by lower water, energy and emissions. For example, choice of cooling technology affects 1 els 100 100,000 and biofuels
OIL
c
si
fu
-
lo
quality water. in China the expansion of inland nuclear freshwater use more than the fuel - to
lu
el
s COAL
choice. Also, important differences as
oc
power plants will reduce emissions, Once-through saline cooling
gn
In thermal power generation which and trade-offs exist between water 0 om 1,000
Bi
Li
but may increase freshwater demand. consumption and water withdrawal. m /TJ 3 10 GAS
withdraws more than 20 times the fresh 1 100
Unintended consequences can also occur
water used in fossil-fuel extraction the IN
G
c o n s u mp t i o n
BIOENERGY
with the expansion of air-cooled condensers N
choice of cooling technology affects water FI L Irrigated
(dry cooling) for thermal power generation. RE N 0O
1,000
10,000
NUCLEAR
use more than the fuel choice. Improved O
IL A 3
H m /TJ
While reducing water requirements, this ET
con
L
plant efficiency and the replacement of su
O
m
TO
N
pt
technology also reduces the average ar N consumpt
A
io
fresh water with alternatives are examples E le IO ion
H
n
N uc S
ET
efficiency of power generation, leading to A N ER al
of methods that can reduce water use in Oil Refining RC
C
w Irrigated
V Co
SI
higher fuel consumption and emissions, as A i
wi
N
wi
10,000
LO
G
the power sector. However, they can cost and Biofuels CO
thd
th
SU
t hd
100,000
dr
well as increased capital costs.
as
EL
LL
r aw
aw
r aw
G
more and may need incentives to drive
CE
FU Thermal power
a
O
al
BI
al
l
their adoption. In analyzing options it is generation
N
G
LI
important to distinguish carefully between (withdrawal and
Once through saline cooling
water withdrawal and water consumption 100,000 consumption)
Source: Water in the energy
and to consider the trade-offs between industry An introduction. 10
1 Once-through
the two. Most water withdrawn in power 100
fresh cooling
c o n s um
p tio
n
0 1,000
m 3/TJ con
sum
pt
R ion
A consumption
LE
w
i th
d
w
BP Technology Outlook 3.0 Natural resource constraints 31
km
33% 17,000
Corn
17% 33,000 Bioenergy and land use to fuels will be necessary. Careful selection efficiency improvements in fuel conversion
Biomass supplies 10% of todays global of land, crop management, technologies and food production will mitigate
primary energy, mostly for traditional and uses are all required. The choice of competition with food for land.
12% 49,000 small-scale heating and cooking. It is crop must balance high yield with low
Research at the MIT also shows that a
Sugar cane often seen as part of a lower-carbon inputs, low impact on the environment and
large bioenergy system does not
7% 84,000 future, mainly because of the potential net positive climate impact, together with
necessarily imply a decrease in natural
for biofuels in transport and biomass in understanding of how to grow the crop
forests, providing these are protected with
power. Agricultural land is a finite resource over large acreage.
dedicated land-use policies, including a
however, and different bioenergy crops
23% 25,000 Because of its high yield, sugar cane price on land carbon.
require water and fertilizers in varying
Switch grass ethanol is already a competitive transport
amounts. Understanding how land can be
14% 40,000 fuel in some regions and, in the longer
best used to meet energy needs, while
term, LC ethanol from crops such as
minimizing the impact on other natural
miscanthus or switchgrass could be a cost-
resources, requires consideration of the
and carbon-competitive fuel in many parts
10% 57,000 many different ways to optimize crop
of the world.
Miscanthus production for food, feed and fuel.
5% 122,000 The use of biomass for energy has proved
Our research shows that production of
a contentious issue, with differing
150200 exajoules (EJ) of primary energy
perspectives in different parts of the world
per year which is comparable in size to
about land use, accompanied by concerns
16% 46,000 todays oil sector from biomass could
about food availability. Research at the
Oil palm be sustainably achieved by 2050. This
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
10% 75,000 would represent a significant energy
(MIT), supported by BP, has shown that
source and a substantial increase from the
the impact of a large bioenergy industry
current biomass utilization of about 50EJ
worldwide on food prices would be
per year (EJ/yr). To realize this potential,
100% 7,000 relatively modest: a 150EJ/yr bioenergy
the productivity of crops would have to
Soy bean sector in 2050 would result in an average
World average yield increase, through advances in agricultural
80% 9,000 food price increase of approximately 3%
Best yield techniques. Alongside this, improvements
compared with business as usual. This is
in the processes used to convert biomass
because technology, crop choices and
Sources: Biomass in the energy industry An introduction.
FAO Statistics. IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2015.
BP Technology Outlook 3.0 Natural resource constraints | External perspective 32
Professor Zheng Li
Director, Tsinghua BP Clean Energy Research
and Education Center, Tsinghua University (Beijing, China)
External perspective
Energy technology
choices to reduce demand
on natural resources Although energy production and
consumption are closely linked to natural
resources consumption, technology
The third way is the optimization of the entire supply
chain. Taking the coal-power supply chain as an example,
trade-offs exist between water consumption in upstream
coal washing and downstream power generation.
innovation could play an important role Increasing the amount of water being used for coal
in reducing demand in three ways. washing may actually result in less water used during
power generation. This is because washed coal, with
The first way is to improve technology incrementally, less ash, sulphur and heavy metals:
either with higher energy efficiency or with less natural- Increases combustion efficiency thereby decreasing
resource consumption per unit of energy or service. specific water consumption per kWh produced.
An example is replacing coal-fired subcritical steam power Reduces electricity demand for railways, which have
plants with ultra-supercritical ones. This increases the to carry less weight of coal.
net power generation efficiency from about 38% to Reduces the parasitic electric load from flue gas
about 4445% and consequently decreases cooling desulphurization (a process that also requires water).
water consumption.
Because of these benefits, coal washing, a technology
The second way is to develop alternative technologies that previously did not get enough attention, is bound
that consume fewer natural resources. One example to be applied more and more.
is replacing coal-fired power generation with wind.
The advantages are significant: using wind instead of In practice, the three ways above should be pursued
coal reduces air pollution, carbon emissions and since simultaneously to minimize natural resources
it requires no cooling during operation eliminates consumption and other environmental effects.
water consumption.
Guangxi Province,
China.
BP Technology Outlook 3.1 Emerging technologies 33
3.1 Emerging
technologies
Emerging technologies present Some technologies with the potential transportation and storage. Advances in
to enhance existing business models understanding corrosion mechanisms and
business risks and opportunities
are either ready now or on the cusp of prevention can also have widespread
for the energy industry. benefiting the energy industry. applications across other industrial sectors,
such as aerospace, marine and automotive.
While new technology breakthroughs are In the oil and gas sector, for example,
infrequent, transformational or disruptive remote sensing via satellites and Quantum technologies have the potential
change can take place sometimes within unmanned aerial vehicles are already to process huge data sets at faster rates
relatively short time scales and with undertaking surface mapping, contaminant than todays silicon-based, digital computers
dramatic consequences. In these cases, characterization, inspection and spill can. They use electrons or even polarized
breakthroughs often come when tools, detection. Technologies applicable to light that can be interlinked to perform many
techniques or approaches in one sector oilwater separation, crude oil desalters or operations at once, greatly increasing
are applied in another. Advances also water/organic-chemical processors are computation speeds. While currently at an
happen when a known technology reaches also advancing, and are likely to have a early stage of development, quantum and
an economic tipping point as a result of positive impact on existing refining and nano technologies have been identified as
multiple incremental innovations. processing activities. having significant potential.
The pace of innovation and development Developments in new materials
Emerging technologies is increasing. This is being facilitated by technologies, such as lightweight
in oil recovery, digital, diverse institutions working together on construction materials, coatings and
energy storage (such as large-scale and long-term initiatives in membranes, have great potential to
batteries) and solar collaborative partnerships. Developments improve many parts of the energy value
photovoltaics have the may involve private companies, universities, chain. For instance, corrosion-inhibiting
greatest potential to While new technology research institutes, specialist consultancies coatings can improve uptime and reliability
transform the way we breakthroughs are and funding bodies all working together. in oil and gas production as well as further
produce, supply and infrequent, transformational downstream in refining, petrochemicals
use energy. change can take place
manufacture, lubricants blending, product
often within relatively short
time scales and with
dramatic consequences.
BP Technology Outlook 3.1 Emerging technologies 34
Emerging technologies
Time range from commercialization to significant impact.
2050
Emerging technologies in oil recovery, digital, energy
storage (such as batteries) and solar PV have the
Hydrogen greatest potential to transform the way we produce,
infrastructure supply and use energy.
and storage
Widespread Beyond silicon
availability of hydrogen computing
for the consumer
Ultra-fast, high-efficiency
computing utilizing next-
generation materials
and approaches
Data analytics
Creating value from Digitization Energy storage: battery technology advances
vast data sets
Exponential increases in the power and speed of Batteries for vehicles and electricity-grid applications,
computers and the accompanying decrease in costs are such as energy storage technologies, have significant
having a huge impact on the energy business and have the potential to influence future fossil-fuel demand in the transport
Better batteries potential to do much more. sector and enable greater penetration of intermittent renewable
Automation 2015
for vehicles
via robotics energy.
Enhancing the growth Data analytics, visualization tools and computational techniques
Enabling safe and of vehicle electrification
reliable operations are addressing long-standing challenges when operating Battery technologies for transportation are improving to meet
and reducing emissions
in hostile natural environments in the upstream oil and gas performance demands. Particular progress is being made on
business, including understanding the subsurface, tackling battery reliability, costs, safety and capacity for enhanced range.
3D printing hydrate formation and maintaining facility reliability. For These developments are having an impact on the forecast
Bespoke custom example, intelligent data analysis is guiding exploration teams production of electric vehicles.
components in high- on where to drill and improving their understanding of reservoir
value applications Next-generation batteries, such as rechargeable lithium sulphur
Solar conversion depletion. This is also enabling the development of better
batteries, are expected to increase energy capacity threefold
Breaking through the
strategies for enhanced oil recovery.
by 2025 from 150Wh/kg to 450Wh/kg and to reduce vehicle
30%-efficiency barrier Fuel cells In fuels and lubricants, molecular-level models can determine weight and cost. Next-generation batteries could be established
using low-cost Modular approach
fabrication methods if certain types of molecule can reduce friction in engines. in the electric vehicle market by 202530. The continued
to power generation
and biotechnology development of these technologies is supported by regulatory
In chemicals, molecular modelling is driving improvements
to drive agriculture pressures for greater fuel economy and lower tailpipe emissions
in catalysis.
per kilometre driven, which makes their contribution to better
In biofuels, the scale and speed of data analysis, such as the urban air quality a particular advantage. Consumer demand is
pioneering work on gene sequencing, is helping to drive also likely to increase.
Timeline understanding of the microorganisms that increase yield and
deliver better products.
2050
2040 In the power sector, data analytics will lead to improved
2030 infrastructure management and operational efficiency.
2020
2015
Examples include the emergence of smart grid systems
to maximize the uptime of generating assets and improve
reliability for the customer.
Source: BP.
BP Technology Outlook 3.1 Emerging technologies 35
High-temperature solid
oxide fuel cells.
Dr Steven Griffiths
VP for Research and Associate Provost,
Masdar Institute of Science and Technology (Abu Dhabi, UAE)
External perspective The future energy landscape will be shaped mitigate the need for new transmission and distribution
Future energy
infrastructure and to provide demand management
by a significant growth in energy demand and ancillary grid services. Widespread adoption of
and a shift towards energy supply from advanced grid storage technologies must meet safety and
unconventional and renewable resources. performance requirements while being cost competitive.
landscapes
Solar photovoltaics (PV), stationary energy Performance requirements include the ability to ramp to
full power in minutes, sustain full power for hours, cycle
storage and methane hydrate recovery between charging and discharging with high efficiency
represent three emerging and disruptive and operate for thousands of cycles. The development
areas of innovation within this new and/or demonstration of novel technologies, such as flow
supply paradigm. batteries, molten-salt batteries and compressed air
storage, are still required. In the near term, energy
Solar energy is our most abundant natural resource, storage technologies available now, such as lithium
with tremendous potential to transform the energy batteries, will increasingly be deployed for off-grid and
landscape. PV technologies have grown particularly local distribution systems, setting the stage for the
rapidly in recent years, as maturation of wafer and uptake of large-scale grid storage.
thin-film PV manufacturing has dramatically reduced PV
module costs and government incentives have further Methane (or gas) hydrates represent an enormous
stimulated market demand. The global urbanization recoverable resource at least of the order of shale gas.
megatrend and growing scarcity of available land in Gas hydrate resources are global and Asian economies
high population areas necessitates that PV increasingly that are heavily dependent on imported energy are
integrates with the built environment, with easy making gas hydrate recovery a strategic imperative.
installation and low maintenance requirements. To drive By 2050 gas hydrate recovery may account for 5% or
greater penetration of solar power into electricity supply, more of all global gas production, if public and private
industry players must focus on reducing the costs of sector initiatives develop safe and cost-effective
installation, overheads, financing and power electronics. extraction technologies based on depressurization,
They will also need to achieve smooth electricity grid thermal stimulation and chemical or gas injection.
integration through energy storage or other means of Each emerging technology domain described requires
mitigating solar intermittency. Longer-term challenges industry to develop and demonstrate state-of-the-art
involve increasing cell and module efficiencies, reducing technologies and then optimize supply chains and
materials use and reducing manufacturing complexity manufacturing capabilities for commercialization.
and costs. Industry leadership will catalyse markets ready to adopt
Stationary energy storage for electricity-grid services the new generations of technology that will inevitably
is disruptive in its capacity to support the integration of follow from further advances in biological, material and
renewable energy sources with the electricity grid, to geological sciences.
lo w
er-
ca
4.0 Conclusions
rb
on and implications
en
er
gy
fut
ure
The long-term trends The key metrics that will show how So what technologies will be the most
these trends evolve are the amount of important as this journey unfolds? In the
discussed in this publication
energy used and the level of GHG short term, we can expect a continued
depict an energy sector emissions. Both are influenced by a series emphasis on technologies, such as seismic
of increasing diversity and of factors. Energy supply and demand are imaging and EOR, to find and produce
complexity. New resources governed by factors such as economic and fossil fuels as cost effectively as possible
demographic growth and the capacity of while also continuing to enhance and
are becoming available, led by
technology to produce resources cost reduce costs of lower-carbon energy. In the
shale oil and gas. Energy prices effectively. Emission levels are influenced medium to longer term we expect to see
have returned to their traditional by policy and regulation, for example, by technology enable lower-carbon energy to
pattern of volatility. Policies and the pricing of carbon through taxation or mature and become deployed at increasing
emissions trading, by subsidies and quotas scale while the remaining hydrocarbons are
regulations on environmental
for renewable energy, and by regulations used even more efficiently.
issues vary from country to such as building standards and tailpipe
In the early stages of the journey ahead, there
country and may develop in emission limits for cars.
will be a continuing need to discover more
different ways. At first glance, the idea of using more fossil-fuel resources as existing fields are
energy with less environmental impact depleted. Technology is also transforming oil
Within this complex and uncertain picture, seems contradictory. Over time, however, field recovery rates. No longer is it routinely
two trends that will have a bearing on the it can be achieved: firstly, by using energy expected that around two thirds of the oil in a
entire framework are clear. Firstly, we more efficiently and thus limiting the given field will remain underground. Recovery
will need to deliver more energy to more total volume consumed and, secondly, by rates well in excess of 50% are now in
people at lower cost. Secondly, the switching the energy that is used towards prospect thanks to EOR technologies.
Technology options growth in energy demand needs to be
exist to reduce lower-carbon forms of fuel and power.
greenhouse gas met while reducing GHG emissions and This includes replacing coal with gas in
emissions sharply but making a transition to a lower-carbon power stations, using CCS at power
the transition to a energy system. plants and other facilities, and using more
lower-carbon world
The world will renewable and nuclear energy.
requires political will
need more energy and readiness to pay.
provided securely,
affordably and
sustainably.
BP Technology Outlook 4.0 Conclusions and implications 38
Technology will give greater choice in how we meet future energy demand
securely, affordably and sustainably.
These new technologies that enhance oil In the power sector, the substitution of still coming from fossil fuels, led by gas,
and gas recovery from already discovered lower-carbon natural gas for coal can make the cleanest fossil fuel. We can expect
fields will be at least as important as those a significant contribution to reducing carbon technology to help us use fossil fuels much
that help explorers find new ones. emissions, supplemented by renewable more efficiently and sparingly, while it also
technologies such as wind and solar PV underpins commercially viable lower-
At the same time, in periods when oil and
accounting for a higher share of generation. carbon energy renewables, nuclear
gas prices are low and operators are
In transport, we expect vehicles to remain and CCS.
seeking efficiencies, technologies that
fuelled mainly by oil-based liquid fuels and,
reduce costs of finding, producing and Within an environment that supports
to a lesser extent, biofuels. We expect
processing energy resources will be prized innovation and encourages the private
engines and vehicles to become lighter,
putting greater emphasis on the need sector to invest, energy companies have
more efficient and smarter, complemented
for effective research and development in a vital role to play in responding to the
by advanced, increasingly efficient
areas such as digital technologies and challenges ahead by developing and
lubricants and fuels.
advanced materials. deploying the innovative technological and
In the medium to long term, we can expect commercial solutions that meet societys
Such developments in the conventional
progressive decarbonization in the transport needs and aspirations.
energy system are expected to be
sector with a greater move toward hybrid
augmented by the progressive development The future is uncertain, but we know that
and electric passenger cars. Liquid fuels
of lower-carbon technologies, with technology will help provide the energy the
will be much more difficult to displace from
government support. As and when world needs, and the means to use it more
commercial transport such as shipping,
governments act to constrain or mitigate efficiently, with lower GHG emissions.
trucks and aircraft, however, due to their
emissions more strongly, we can expect Most of all, technology will give greater
high energy density.
a greater drive to invest in research, choice in how we meet future energy
development and deployment of lower- The IEA has developed a scenario for demand safely, securely, affordably
carbon technologies, including those that a world in which the global mean surface and sustainably.
are nascent, such as CCS. Technologies temperature rise on pre-industrial times
that increase energy efficiency will become is limited to 2C widely seen as the
increasingly important as they help reduce threshold to avoid significant climate change.
energy costs and limit CO2 emissions a In that scenario, the world uses a lot less
Technology will help
winwin outcome. energy than in business-as-usual provide the energy the
projections, but with around half in 2050 world needs.
BP Technology Outlook Our approach 39
Our approach
In BP Technology Outlook we This publication includes selected highlights Our research covered eight geographic In assessing the primary energy resource For each technology we developed a view on
from our research into the potential future regions that resulted in 30,000 possible base, we covered a spectrum of fossil fuels, capital, fixed and variable costs, along with
provide a perspective on future impact of technology across the energy routes or value chains, extending from the fissile material (nuclear) and renewable projections relating to efficiency and carbon
system, from the availability of energy harvesting of primary energy resources to resources. We considered the performance emissions. We included sensitivity analysis,
trends in technology and their resources through to their conversion and their conversion into products and to their and costs of the technologies used to gain which assessed the impact of carbon
potential impact on the energy eventual end use. We focus on developments consumption. At each stage of the value access to resources and projected how they emission policy (in the form of a carbon price).
in primary energy resources, oil and gas chain, we considered various options for how might evolve to 2050. We gave particular Policy measures of this type serve to increase
system, using insights from our extraction, power generation, transport fuels each energy source or product might be consideration to the potential for improvement the full life-cycle cost of any value chain that is
research. This analysis, carried and vehicles. transported. For instance, natural gas can be in two metrics: our ability to recover more dependent on fossil fuels at any point.
transported by pipeline, shipped as LNG or energy more efficiently and the scope to
out with our external research We provide an industry-wide assessment of converted to electricity and transported as reduce access costs. The climate perspectives have been informed
what is technically possible and while it is in addition to internal research and reputable
partners since 2012 and building impossible to predict with any certainty what
gas-by-wire.
For oil and gas, we assessed 22 different sources such as the IPCC and the IEA by
on similar assessments in 2005 is likely to occur, it sets out a vision of the Technology underpins each element of every resource classes spanning conventional and the Carbon Mitigation Initiative, a 15-year
way technology may shape the energy chain and the way in which technology unconventional types located in onshore and partnership between BP and Princeton
and 2009, describes what landscape over the next 35 years. We draw on develops will shape how we think about offshore environments. With some resource University with the goal of finding solutions
BPs view of the global energy system energy and use it in the future. Consequently, classes such as methane hydrates and to the carbon and climate challenge. Our
lessons can be learnt from as reflected in BP Energy Outlook 2035 and each value chain has a unique set of offshore unconventionals excluded, assessment of the relationships between
technology evolution and how BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015. technologies, costs, efficiencies and the assessment can be considered to be natural resources and the supply and use
Both these publications have become standard sustainability implications that influence the conservative. For renewable energy, of energy, including how technologies can
these might shape our future references for those with an interest in the choices we make. the accessible resources for solar, wind, mitigate the potential effect of resource
energy choices. energy industry.
We developed a view of how each element
geothermal, biomass, hydro and marine scarcity, builds on the Energy Sustainability
were also evaluated by region, alongside Challenge. This is a BP-funded global
Todays global energy system is already might evolve to 2050, drawing on expert coal and nuclear. multidisciplinary research programme
complex, and projecting the direction in which opinion, historical trends and third-party established in 2010, involving 15 leading
it might evolve to 2050 is bound to involve and benchmarks. To ensure a clear focus on For value-chain modelling, we adopted a universities around the world.
introduce uncertainties. The absolute figures in technology, we excluded the impact of techno-economic approach to determine
this publication, therefore, are less important above-ground factors such as government cost-effective pathways for creating products
than relative comparisons and the long-term policy, incentives and subsidies. Our research from primary energy fossil and renewable
trends they might imply. comprised two major components: analysis of resources and for delivering end use services
the worlds primary energy resource base and such as mobility in transportation and heating
These trends include probable and possible comprehensive value-chain modelling. in buildings. To complete the full value-chain
changes in resource availability, conversion assessment, we also modelled mid-stream
and end use, and the implications these could We complemented these elements by elements such as electricity generation,
have for decision makers in government, analyzing emerging and disruptive technologies refining and petrochemicals. Views on how
business and society. and assessing the role of technologies to technology might progress took account of
address climate change and constraints on anticipated learning-curve effects, extending
natural resources such as fresh water, land from the level of a technologys current
and minerals. maturity and projecting to 2050. This required
us to develop a view on likely demand and
deployment rates. For example, we deemed
that onshore wind and PV technologies would
continue on the pathway of rapid growth
based on trends in recent years.
BP Technology Outlook Glossary 40
Glossary
Blendwall: Most gasoline vehicle drivetrains Depolymerization (of biomass): pretreatment Gas-to-liquids (GTL): process of chemically Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE): method
3D printing Gas Photovoltaics (PV)
on the road in the US today and many gasoline process (sometimes using enzymes) that converting natural gas into liquid fuels via a to calculate the fully built-up cost of electricity
storage and dispensing systems are designed to breaks polymeric biomolecules such as syngas intermediate. There are several different from a generating asset in its lifetime. Key inputs
Automotive Greenhouse gas (GHG) Refining handle gasoline blends which contain no more cellulose, hemicellulose or starch into their types, including FischerTropsch and MTG to calculating LCOE include capital costs, fuel
than 10% ethanol. As a result, 10% ethanol monomers,which are typically simple sugars. technology both of which have been operated costs, electrical efficiency, fixed and variable
represents a maximum practical level for gasoline commercially. operations and maintenance costs, depreciation
Automation via robotics Gas-to-liquids (GTL) Renewables
blends, and has been described as the ethanol Desalting: washing process to remove the salt and an assumed utilization rate for each plant type.
blendwall. impurities usually present in crude oil. Greenhouse gas (GHG): gas that contributes to
Appliances Geothermal Seismic imaging the Earths greenhouse effect (a phenomenon in Lignocellulosic (LC) ethanol: biofuel produced
Biomass-to-liquids (BTL): process of chemically Digital technologies: term used to describe which the atmosphere traps radiation emitted by from wood, grasses or the inedible parts of
converting woody biomass into liquid fuels via the use of digital resources to effectively find, the sun) by absorbing infrared radiation. Carbon plants. The name derives from the primary
Batteries Hybrid Solar a syngas intermediate. In principle, this could analyse, create, communicate and use dioxide and methane are examples of GHGs. components of this type of biomass: lignin,
involve FischerTropsch or MTG technology, but information in a digital context. cellulose and hemicellulose.
as yet BTL is not commercial. Horizontal and directional drilling: method
Biofuels Hydraulic fracturing Sugar cane Direct fuel injection: engine where fuel is of drilling non-vertical wells. For oil and gas, it Methanol-to-gasoline (MTG): process for
Carbon capture and storage (CCS): process delivered directly into the cylinder rather than the delivers a number of benefits, including exposing converting syngas into methanol, then methanol
whereby CO 2 is collected from industrial intake port or pre-chamber of traditional gasoline greater sections of a reservoir, enabling access into liquid hydrocarbons, mainly suitable for
Biomass-to-liquids (BTL) Hydro Shale gas
exhaust streams and injected into underground and diesel engines, respectively. The technology where vertical wells are difficult or not possible, gasoline engines.
storage sites. is normally applied to improve efficiency, both allowing multiple wellheads to be grouped
Combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) Hydrogen storage Tight oil directly via combustion improvements and as a together at a single location and creating less Offshore facilities: basket of technologies such
Carbon price/tax: financial cost applied by key technology in enabling engine downsizing. surface area disturbance. In conjunction with as compliant towers, tension-leg platforms,
governments to emissions of carbon dioxide or hydraulic fracturing, it is used extensively in spars, subsea systems, floating production
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Imaging Transmission
other greenhouse gases (e.g. methane) in units Drilling, well construction and completions: systems, and floating production, storage and
process of creating an oil or gas well by drilling accessing unconventional shale and tight oil and
of carbon-dioxide equivalence. The price can be gas formations. offloading systems used in offshore oil and gas
set directly, as a carbon tax on emissions. It can into the Earths surface and through rock production and enabling access to increasingly
Coal Land Unconventional gas
also be established indirectly, by requiring formations, often to depths of more than 4,000 Hybrid vehicle: utilizes more than one form of deeper waters.
emitters to obtain emission permits, which are metres, casing the wellbore, ensuring structural propulsion system (prime mover) to power the
Corn ethanol Lignocellulosic (LC) ethanol Wells
issued by the government in limited numbers to integrity, installing barriers to prevent leaks and vehicle motion. The most common application of Originally in place (oil and gas): total volume
place an overall cap on emissions, and which creating a flow path to enable oil or gas to flow this approach is in hybrid electric vehicles, which of oil or gas estimated to be in a reservoir,
can then be bought and traded in a carbon into the well bore and to the surface. combine an internal combustion (IC) engine and regardless of whether deemed recoverable or
D Diesel Liquid fuel Water
market. The carbon price should ideally reflect Engine downsizing: use of a smaller engine in a fuel tank with one or more electric motors and not, before the production starts.
the cost of the environmental damage caused a vehicle that provides equivalent performance a battery pack. The hybrid system can improve
Directional drilling Lubricants
by GHGs, and it provide a clear economic vehicle efficiency by allowing the IC engine to Power plant cooling: systems to exchange the
of a larger engine normally for the purpose heat from the steam condensers commonly used
incentive for potential emitters to emit less, of improving vehicle fuel efficiency. This is operate more optimally and by recovering energy
Digital Materials either by stopping or reducing an emitting to the battery during braking. Plug-in hybrid in thermal power generation plants. The main
commonly achieved by applying turbocharging types include: wet-tower cooling, a closed-loop
activity or finding a way to perform the activity and direct fuel-injection technology. vehicles are able to store and use energy that
more efficiently. has been generated by an external source. system in which water is cooled by atomization
Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) Marine Fermentation: biological process where into a stream of air, and heat is lost through
Coal washing: process in the preparation of micro organisms such as yeast or bacteria Hydraulic fracturing: fracturing of rock using evaporation; once-through cooling, an open-loop
Electric car Nuclear
coal feedstock that improves its quality by convert simple sugars into useful chemicals high-pressure fluid consisting of water, sand and system in which heat in the steam condenser
removing impurities. such as ethanol. chemicals. Small grains of hydraulic fracturing is removed using a stream from large surface-
proppants, usually either sand or aluminium water sources such as lakes, major rivers or the
Energy storage Offshore wind Combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT): FischerTropsch (FT): process for converting oxide, hold the fractures open allowing oil and ocean; dry cooling, which works in a similar way
form of highly efficient energy generation syngas into liquid hydrocarbons, mainly suitable gas to flow. as engines are cooled in cars, by passing large
technology that combines a gas-fired turbine for diesel engines or gas turbines. The syngas volumes of air over a heat exchanger and using
Floating facilites Onshore wind with a steam turbine. Improved and enhanced oil recovery
may be derived from natural gas, coal, residual no water.
oils or biomass. (IOR/EOR): range of techniques used to
Data analytics: method of examining raw data increase the natural volume of resources Predictive technology: tools capable of
Fuel cells Oil with the purpose of creating information to recoverable from an oil or gas field. They often discovering and analyzing patterns in data so
enable conclusions to be drawn and decisions to involve injecting water with chemical additives that past behaviour can be used to forecast
Facilities Power generation be made better and faster. Also used to verify or and/or hydrocarbon gases or CO2 into a partially likely future behaviour.
disprove existing models or theories. depleted reservoir.
BP Technology Outlook More information 41
More information
Pretreatment (of biomass): processes Technically recoverable oil and gas Energy unit conversions BP Energy Outlook 2035 Disclaimer
required to convert raw biomass such as resources: proportion of estimated original- 1 tonne oil equivalent (toe) = 7.33 barrels of oil Projections for world energy markets, This document contains forward-looking
cereals, energy crops or agricultural residues in-place volumes deemed recoverable using equivalent (boe) considering the potential evolution of the global statements, particularly those regarding
into simple sugars. current and future technology and regardless economy, population, policy and technology. technology development, global economic
of whether it is economic to do so at current 1 megawatt hour (MWh) = 3.6 gigajoule (GJ)
Proved reserves (oil and gas): generally taken Published annually. growth, population growth, energy
market prices. 1 million British thermal units (Btu) = 1.05GJ bp.com/energyoutlook consumption, policy support for renewable
to be those quantities of oil and gas that
geological and engineering information indicates Ultra-supercritical coal: power plant that energies and sources of energy supply.
1 tonne oil equivalent on a calorific basis = BP Statistical Review of World Energy Forward-looking statements involve risks and
with reasonable certainty can be recovered in operates at temperatures and pressures above heat units An objective review of key global energy
the future from known reservoirs under existing the critical point of water, at which point there uncertainties because they relate to events,
trends. Published annually. and depend on circumstances that will or may
economic and operating conditions. is no difference between water vapour and
bp.com/statisticalreview occur in the future. Actual outcomes may differ
liquid water. These power plants deliver higher
Remote sensing: acquisition of information efficiency and lower emissions than subcritical depending on a variety of factors, including
about an object or phenomenon without making Energy Sustainability Challenge
coal plants. solid fuels BP-funded multidisciplinary research product supply, demand and pricing, political
physical contact with the object and thus in
programme involving 15 leading universities stability, general economic conditions, legal and
contrast to in situ observation. Examples Underground coal gasification (UCG):
include satellite and unmanned aerial vehicle industrial process that converts coal into product worldwide examining the relationships regulatory developments, availability of new
remote imaging. gas. UCG is an in situ gasification process between natural resources and the supply technologies, natural disasters and adverse
electricity and use of energy. Key findings have been weather conditions, wars and acts of terrorism
carried out in non-mined coal seams using
Resources (oil and gas): a generic term injection of oxidants, and bringing the product
published in a suite of handbooks on biomass, or sabotage and other factors discussed
covering primary hydrocarbon energy sources, gas to surface through production wells drilled water and materials available at elsewhere in this document.
whether original in place, or technically or from the surface. bp.com/energysustainabilitychallenge
economically recoverable. Paper
Unmanned aerial vehicles: aircraft piloted by Information about technology at This publication is printed on Mohawk PC 100
Seismic imaging: range of techniques for remote control or on-board computers. made from 100% FSC recycled certified fibre
BP can be found at
investigating and imaging the Earths sub- sourced from de-inked post-consumer waste.
surface geological characteristics. They are used Water flooding: water flooding or injection bp.com/technology
The printer and the manufacturing mill are
extensively in exploring for new sources of oil refers to the method in the oil industry where Acknowledgements both credited with ISO14001 Environmental
and gas and developing 3D- and 4D-modelling water is injected into the reservoir, usually to BP would like to thank its partners in the
increase pressure and thereby stimulate
Management Systems Standard and both are
representations of structures to enable better production of this publication: IHS Energy
reservoir development and management. production. Water flooding or injection wells can FSC certified.
and Marakon for their work, and support on
be found both on and offshore, to increase oil Design
Single-cycle gas turbines (SCGTs): most the primary energy resource, Ricardo plc and
recovery from an existing reservoir. thebigwindow.co.uk
frequently used in the power generation, aviation Baringa Partners for their support on the power
(jet engine), and oil and gas industry (electricity Water withdrawal: water removed from and transport sector analysis. BP p.l.c. 2015
generation and mechanical drives). This differs surface or groundwater, at least temporarily,
from a combined-cycle operation in that it has to produce or process energy, or for some External perspectives were provided by
only one thermodynamic cycle (i.e. no provision other purpose. Water withdrawals are typically Paul Markwell and Judson Jacobs from IHS
for waste heat recovery and steam cycle). classified as either surface (from rivers, lakes or Energy, Jenny Chase from Bloomberg New
impoundments) or groundwater withdrawals. Energy Finance, Andreas Schamel from
Steam methane reforming: process in which Ford Motor Company, Professor Rob Socolow
methane from natural gas is heated, with steam, Water consumption: portion of withdrawn from Princeton University, Professor Zheng
to produce a mixture of carbon monoxide and water not returned to the surface or groundwater Li from Tsinghua University and Dr Steven
hydrogen used in organic synthesis and as a fuel. in the same drainage basin from which is was Griffiths from Masdar Institute of Science
abstracted. Consumed water is evaporated,
Syngas (synthesis gas): a mixture consisting and Technology.
transpired, incorporated into products or crops,
primarily of hydrogen and carbon monoxide, or otherwise removed.
with smaller amounts of other simple gases. It is
typically made by gasifying a carbonaceous feed Well intervention: operation carried out
such as natural gas, coal or woody biomass. on an oil or gas well to extend its producing
life by providing well diagnostics, improving
performance or providing access to stranded
or additional hydrocarbon reserves. Typical
intervention services include wireline, tractors,
coiled tubing and hydraulic workovers.
Where might energy technology take us?
As the worlds population grows and living standards improve, the demand for
energy continues to rise. Technology is a vital lever in enabling the world to meet
energy demand securely, affordably and sustainably.
BP p.l.c. 2015