System Modeling and Simulation

Homework 2

1. Modify Model 3-1 in ARENA Book Samples folder with all of the following changes:

Add a second machine to which all parts go immediately after exiting the first machine for a
separate kind of processing (for example, the first machine is drilling and the second machine is
washing). Processing times at the second machine are the same as for the first machine. Gather
all the statistics as before, plus the time in queue, queue length, and utilization at the second
machine.
Immediately after the second machine, theres a pass/fail inspection that takes a constant 5
minutes to carry out and has an 80% chance of a passing result; queueing is possible at
inspection, and the queue is first-in, first-out. All parts exit the system regardless of whether they
pass the test. Count the number that fail and the number that pass, and gather statistics on the
time in queue, queue length, and utilization at the inspection center. (HINT: Try the Decide
flowchart module.)
Include plots to track the queue length and number busy at all three stations. Configure them as
needed.
Run the simulation for 480 minutes instead of 20 minutes Points (15)

Solution: See Arena Model uploaded on mytsu

From the final values of the counters next to the Dispose modules in the animation,
66 passed and 23 failed.
At the Inspection center (for example):
Avg. Max
Time in queue 2.1083 8.44387
Queue length 0.4062 3
Utilization 0.8363

2. A production process manufactures alternators for outboard engines used in recreational

boating. On the average, 1% of the alternators will not perform up to the required standards
when tested at the engine assembly plant. When a large shipment of alternators is received at
the plant, 100 are tested, and, if more than two are nonconforming, the shipment is returned to
the alternator manufacturer. What is probability of returning a shipment? Points (5)
3. The Hawks are currently winning 0.55 of their games. There are 5 games in the next two
weeks. What is the probability that they will win more games than they lose? Points (5)

4. Joe Coolidge is the third string quarterback for Tennessee State University. The probability
that Joe gets into any game is 0.40. Points (5)

a) What is the probability that the first game Joe enters is the fourth game of the season?
b) What is the probability that Joe plays in no more than two of the first five games?

5. The number of hurricanes hitting the coast of Florida annually has a Poisson distribution with
a mean of 0.8. Points (5)
a) What is the probability that more than two hurricanes will hit the Florida coast in a year?
b) What is the probability that exactly one hurricane will hit the coast of Florida in a year?

6. A tool crib has exponential interarrival and service times, and it serves a very large group of
mechanics. The mean time between arrivals is 4 minutes. It takes 3 minutes on the average for
a tool-crib attendant to service a mechanic. The attendant is paid $10 per hour and the
mechanic is paid $15 per hour. Would it be advisable to have a second tool-crib attendant?
Points (5)

7. A machine shop repairs small electric motors, which arrive according to a Poisson process at
the rate of 12 per week (5-day, 40-hour workweek). An analysis of past data indicates that
engines can be repaired, on the average in 2.5 hours, with a variance of 1 hour 2. How many
working hours should a customer expect to leave a motor at the repair shop (not knowing the
state of the system)? If the variance of the repair time could be controlled, what variance
would reduce the expected waiting time to 6.5 hours? Points (5)
8. Classic Car Care has one worker who washes cars in a four-step method soap, rinse, dry,
vacuum. The time to complete each step is exponentially distributed with a mean of 9
minutes. Every car goes through every step before another car begins the process. On the
average, one car every 45 minutes arrives for a wash job, according to a Poisson process.
What is the average time a car waits to begin the wash job? What is the average number of
cars in the car wash system? What is the average time required to wash a car? Points (5)
The service process can be thought of as the convolution (that is the sum of) 4
independent exponential random variables (each with the same mean). The mean is
1/4. The variance of each exponential is 1/422. Thus variance of their sum is
4/422 = 1/42.