DepartmentofStatistics

STATS330/762

ModelanswersforpartB,2012Examination

26.(a)TheinitialmodelwouldincludeinteractionsbetweenXandAandWandA.[1mark].

Thecodetofitthisislm(y~A*X+A*W)[1mark].

Themodelfitsthreenonparallelplanes[1mark].

Couldsimplifybydroppinginteractions[1mark].

Testusinganovafunctionandexaminingpvaluesfortheinteractionterms.Couldalsocomparethe
modelwithinteractionstothemodelwithoutinteractionsusingtheanovafunction.[1mark]

[5marksaltogether]

(b)Thereseemstobeasignificantimprovementinthemodelwhendgdgisadded(seethepvaluein
theanovatable),sothereseemstobearelationshipbetweendadgandadgforatleastoneofthe
breeds.[2marks]Intheanovatablethereisnoevidenceofinteractionalthoughthereisweak
evidenceinthesummarytablethattheslopeofthelineforBreed2isdifferenttothatofBreed1.[2
marks]Thereisstrongevidencethattheinterceptsofthelinesaredifferentinboththesummarytable
(thecoefficientforBreed2hasapvalueof0.0148)andtheanovatable(p=6.577e13).[2marks]

FromthesummarytableitseemsthatthelinesforBreed2andBreed1aredifferent,sothattheeffect
oftheADGofthedamdoesdependonthebreed.[2marks]

[8marksaltogether]

(c)CooksDisameasureoftheoveralleffectontheestimatedregressioncoefficientsofdeletingadata
point.Itisdefinedmathematicallyby

where istheestimate, istheestimatewiththeithdatapointremoved,andpisthenumberof

regressioncoefficients.[1mark].PointsareinfluentialifCooksDexceedsthe10%orthe50%
percentagepointofanFdistributionwithpandnpdegreesoffreedom.[1mark]

[2marksaltogether]

(d)Theflaggedpoints,togetherwiththereasonforflaggingthemandtheeffectsareshowninthetable
below.Eachlineisworth1mark.

Point Reason Effect

1 DFBETASalllarge Onallregressioncoefficients
2 DFBETASfordadglarge,COVratiolarge Coefofdadg,stderrors
3 COVratiolarge stderrors
13 COVratiolarge stderrors
16 COVratiolarge stderrors

[5marksaltogether]

TotalforQ26:20marks

27(a)Thetwodefinitionsarecontainedinthelectureslides[2markseach].Asaturatedmodel(aka
maximalmodel)isonethatplacesnorestrictionsontheparameters.Ithasdeviancezerosincethe
modelbeingcomparedtothemaximalmodelisinfactthesamemaximalmodel.

[6marksaltogether]

(b)Weneedtotestiftheprobabilitiesofasuccessfulfreethrowarethesameforeachofthe23games.
[2marks].Themodelcorrespondingtoequalprobabilitiesisthenullmodel,sowecantestifthe
probabilitiesremainthesameusingthenullmodeldeviance,whichis33.376on22df.[2marks].Thep
valueis0.056,sothereisweakevidencethattheprobabilitiesarenotthesame.Thusthecriticismis
onlyveryweaklyjustified.[2marks].Themodelusedistheonewaybinaryanovamodel(logistic
regression).[2marks]

[8marksaltogether]

(c)Underandoverdispersionoccurwhenthevarianceofthenumberofsuccessesislessthan(more
than)thatgivenbythebinomialdistribution.Canbecausedbythebinomialtrialsnotbeing
independent.[2marks].Couldbehappeninghere(learningeffect,lossofconfidence).[2marks]Likely
effectistoinflatethetruestandarderrorssotheestimatedstandarderrorswillbetoolow(exaggerated
significance,sotherealevidenceforinconsistencymaybeweakerthanthatsuggestedabove).[2marks]

[6marksaltogether]

Totalforquestion27:20marks

28.(a)Splittejointtableintoseparatetables,oneforeachlevelofC.Theconditionaloddsratiosarethe
ORsintheconditionaltablescorrespondingtothedifferentlevelsofC.[4marks][IfAandBare
conditionallyindependentgivenCtheconditionalORswillbeequalto1.[2marks]

[6marksaltogether]

(b)SeeLecture30.

[4marksaltogether]

(c)Theindicatedmodelisthehomogeneousassociationmodel(sincethe3factorinteractionisnot
significantlydifferentfromzero).[3marks].Inthismodel,theoddsratiosintheconditionaltable
correspondingtoEject=Yesarethesameastheoddsratiosintheconditionaltablecorrespondingto
Eject=No.(sameconclusionifweconditiononSeatbeltofInjury)[2marks]

[5marksaltogether]

(d)TheoddsratioconditionalonEject=YesisthesameastheoddsratioconditionalonEject=No.

Wecaninterpretitas(oddsofnotwearingaseatbeltforthefatalinjurygroup)/(oddsofnotwearinga
seatbeltforthenonfatalinjurygroup).

Theestimatedlogoddsis1.71732withastandarderrorof0.05402(weusethe
Seatbeltyes:InjuryNonfatallineinthetable).

TheCIisexp(1.71732+/1.96*0.05402)or(1.611,1.823)to3decimalplaces.

[5marksaltogether]

Totalforquestion28:20marks.