Module 3

Reliability Concepts
and Calculations
 definitions
Reliability is defined to be the
probability that a component or system
will perform a required function for a given
period of time when used under stated
operating conditions. (MTTF, MTBF)
Achieved throughout Equipment life cycle-
design, fabrication, installation, operations
and maintenance
 Design: RCM, DFR, RAM, FMEA
Installation: Precision Maintenance
Operations: AM,SOP, OR&A, RCA
Maintenance: RCM, PMO, TPM, AM, FMEA,
P&S, CBM, PM, Life Extension, Reliability
Analysis, Cost tracking, CMMS, Weibull
Analysis, RCA, Tribology
Definitions
Maintainability is the probability that a system will
be restored to operational effectiveness within a
given period of time when the maintenance
action is performed in accordance with prescribed
procedures. (MTTR, MTBR)

Availability is defined as the probability that a

component or system is performing its required
function at a given point in time or over a
stated period of time when operated and
maintained in a prescribed manner
..Uptime
= MTBF/(MTBF + MTTR)
 DEFINITIONS
MTBF (mean time between failure) represents the average
time between failures

MTBF= Total time/Number of breakdowns

MTTF (mean time to failure) it represents how long a
machine is expected to run before it fails.
MTTF = total time-DT/number of breakdowns
MTBR (mean time between repairs)- represents the average
time between failures
MTBR = Total time/number of repairs

MTTR = time it takes to fix a problem and get it operating

again
MTTR = Unscheduled DT/Number of breakdowns
 Reliability analysis
RAM is a methodology used to predict asset
performance for a given configuration in terms of
Reliability, Availability and Maintainability

It is used to model and predict system Reliability,

Availability and Maintainability

Reliability- equipment performance, system

configuration

Availability- uptime

Maintainability- maintenance resource, MTTR,

spares constraint, maintenance strategies
Steps for RAM Analysis
Definition
- Define the objectives and scope
- Define boundaries for the study
2. Collecting
- Collate all required data
3. Preparation
- Prepare a study basis
- Build the model in stages
- Verify model operation at each stage
4. Results
- Compare over all results with expectations
- Perform sensitivity analyses
- Generate reports
5. Document and archive model files
TYPICAL OUTPUT
Optimized system RAM

Maintenance strategies

Resource requirement

Throughput

Critical spares

Redundancies

Others
 RAM Application
Conceptual Design Screening Studies
Facilities Optimization
Detailed Engineering
Development of Operations Reference Plan /
Asset Reference Plan
Maintenance Strategy Evaluation (RCM)
Manning Studies
Workload Assessments (e.g. Vessel utilization)
Risk Analysis
 Reliability block diagram
A RBD is a graphical depiction of the systems
components and connectors which can be
used to determine the overall system reliability

It is used to model system overall reliability

T = Mission
System Reliability R(T) is expresses as e time
s = failure
rate (FR) =
System unreliability is expressed as 1-R(T) 1/MTBF
System in series
A series system is a configuration such that, if any one of the system
components fails, the entire system fails. Conceptually, a series system
is one that is as weak as its weakest link

"System Success" = "Success of every individual component"

RS = R1 R2 ... Rn (if the component reliabilities

differ, or)
RS = [Ri ]n (if all i = 1, ... , n components are
identical)
 Examples
Let a pump system be composed of five identical
pumps in series. Let the required system reliability, for
unit mission time (T = 1) be R(1) = 0.999

Component unreliability is: Ui(1) = 1 - Ri(1) = 1 - 0.9998 = 0.0002.

 Example 2
For example, assume that the five pumps (components), in the
above system have different reliabilities (maybe they come from
different manufacturers, or exhibit different ages). Let their
reliabilities, for mission time (T = 10) be 0.99, 0.97, 0.95, 0.93, and
0.9, respectively. Then, total system reliability R(T) for T = 10 and FR
are:

Since the system FR is s = 0.02697, then the system MTBF is =

1/ 1/0.02697 = 37.077.
 PARALLEL SYSTEMS
A parallel system is a configuration such that, as long as not all of
the system components fail, the entire system works. Conceptually,
in a parallel configuration the total system reliability is higher than
the reliability of any single system component..

RS = 1 - (1 - Ri) = 1-(1 - R1) (1 - R2) ... (1 - Rn); if the component

reliabilities differ, or

RS = 1 - (1 - Ri) = 1-[1 - R]n; if all "n" components are identical:

[Ri = R; i = 1, ..., n]
RS = 1 -(1 - R1)(1 - R2)(1 - R3) = R1 + R2 + R3 - R1R2 - R1R3 - R2R3 +
R1R2R3 or

RS = 1 -(1 - R)(1 - R)(1 - R) = 3R - 3R2 + R3 (if all components are

identical: Ri= R; i = 1, ..., n

MTBF
 Example
Let a parallel system be composed of n = 2 identical components,
each with FR = 0.01 and mission time T = 10 hours, only one of which
is needed for system success. Then, total system reliability, by both
calculations, is:

MTBF
WeibulL (Life data) analysis
Use to predict life of equipment (reliability, propability of
failure and failure rate)

Parameters

Beta (shape parameter)

if B<1 infant mortality (failure rate decrease with time)
If B= 1 random (failure rate is constant over time
If B>1 Aging, wear (failure rate increase with time

Eta (scale paramenter)- it estimate characteristic life . The

point at which 63.2% of equipment has failed
Life cycle analysis &
management (lcca & lcm)

Life cycle costs Analysis (LCCA) are the total costs estimated to
be incurred in the design, development, production, operation,
maintenance, support, and final disposition of a major system
over its anticipated useful life span

It doesnt only look at acquisition cost but also

sustaining/ownership cost

It is used to make a buying decision, equipment selection, buy or

upgrade decision.

Life Cycle Management includes strategies for managing

equipment from design to disposition. It includes optimizing
inherent RAM and integrity aspect and achieving vertical start up
Time value of money
The net present value (NPV) is the present value of
proceeds minus
present value of outlays. NPV > O for good
investment

PV = FV/(1+ i)n

I = Discounted cash flow rate

N = Number of years
 Failure mode and effect
analysis-FMEA
FMEA Identifies potential system failures and their effect. It can
be extended to rank failures for their combined severity and
probability of occurrence. The failure ranking process is call
criticality analysis (CA). CA can be done subjectively or with
an existing failure data. When FMEA and CA are performed
the total process is called Failure Mode, Effect and Criticality
Analysis
Two Approaches: Hardware( list the effect on the system) and
Functional (list effect of funtional failure on system
Performed at designed and Operational stages.

Inputs: System description/functional breakdown, theory of

Ops, Block diagram, rules and assumption, etc
functional
Hardware
Criticality ranking
Category I - Minor: A failure not serious enough to cause
injury, property damage or system
damage, but which will result in unscheduled
maintenance or repair.
Category II - Marginal: A failure which may cause minor
injury, minor property damage, or minor system damage
which will result in delay or loss of availability or mission
degradation.
Category III - Critical: A failure which may cause severe
injury or major system damage which will result in mission
loss. A significant delay in restoring function to the
system will occur.
Category IV - Catastrophic: A failure which may cause
death or lack of ability to carry out mission without
warning (power failure, over-heating)
Qualitative method
RELIABILITY CENTERED
MAINTENANCE-RCM
Why monitor?
What equipment component need to be monitored?
What monitoring method should be used
How should the monitoring be done?
When should the monitoring be done?
What is the motivation of the OEM- sell parts?
Warranty protection?
Is the maintenance strategy risk based? Different
Failures have different effect, Does it address failure
modes and effect ? Components have different
failure pattern

RCM is the answer to all of the above

RCM Defined
A process used to define
appropriate maintenance
strategies that addresses
failure modes, functional
failures and reduces its effects
RCM= FMECA + RCM Logic
 RCM PROCESS
1.What are the functions of the asset in its present
operating context?
2. In what ways can it fail? Failure modes FMECA
3. What causes it to fail?
4. What happens when it fails? Failure Effects
5. Does it matter if it fails?
6. What can be done to predict or prevent the
failure?
7. What can be done if you cant predict or prevent RCM Logic
the failure?
Outcome of RCM

Risk based maintenance

strategies
Critical spares
Critical equipment list
Appropriate inspection
interval-frequency
PM optimization

Where as RCM is used to

develop maintenance
strategies, PMO is used to
review, analyze and
optimize existing strategies
Typical pmo results
Root cause analysis-RCA
FMEA is use to identify causes of failure before
they happen

RCA is used to find cause of failure after they

occurrence

..A process used to identify root cause (s) of

failure so that countermeasures can be
applied to prevent reoccurrence.
methods5WHY, APOLLO etc
 Six Sigma
It is a process improvement methodology used in reducing
variation/waste and improving quality and customer
specifications.

It is a statistical measure, which is 3.4 DPMO (defect per million

opportunity)

DMAIC- Define, Measure, Analyse,Improve and Control

Define: PFD, CC, SIPOC, CTQ

Measure: CC, Pareto, MSA (repeatability and reproducibility),
Detailed PFD, SPC, pareto analysis, histogram
Analyze: ANOVA, C&E, WHY-WHY analysis, FMEA, SPC
Improve: FMEA, CAP
Control: Poka Yoke, OPL
 Reduce Material Usage Variance
(MUV) by 40%
2 Measure:
Client: An international manufacturing Major in
Ghana

Problem: Material Usage Variance (MUV)

Approach: Applied Six Sigma (DMAIC ) process FOCUSED PROBLEM STATEMENT

to reduce variance by 40% amounting to The preheater and lid feeder units are the major
$115,000 in cost avoidance loss points of 63MM ends. They contribute over
88.6% of all the losses. Statistically (at p value of
1 0.161) the amount of loss is about the same
Define: across all shift. This project will focus on reducing
63mm ends at the preheater and lid feeder by
Problem Statement identifying and eliminating the causal factors.
Data collected suggests we are using 6.7
% more 63 mm ends than targeted.

4 Improve:
Business Case 5 Control: Before &
Aligned with Factory OMPDelight After
Consumers by eliminating waste
Reducing this loss will yield:
A Saving of $15000
Reduction in the cost of
Installed Sensor
production
Increase supply rate

3
Analyze
: Sustainability

Financial Benefits:
.
Savings : $ 115,000
 38

Control chart and statistical process

control-spc
LS US LS US
L L L L
Defects Defects
I and
70 MR UC
L=66.49
Client target Client target
Individual Value

60 Chart

Eliminate Defects
Center Process on Target
50 M
ean=50.06

40

30
LC
L=33.63
Reduce Variation Reduce Variation
Subgroup 0 50 100

1
LS US
20 UC
L=20.19 L L
MovingRange

10
R=6.179
R=13.
0 LC
L=0
LC
L=0
Client target

Meet Client Target

and Specifications
 39

The Standard Normal Curve

The standard normal curve is a special case of the normal
distribution where the mean = 0 and the standard deviation = 1
Theoretical Empirical
68.26% .60-75%

95.44% .90-98%

99.73% .99-100%

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

95% of the population is within approximately 2 standard

deviations or Z-scores of the mean
 Separates vital few
Pareto from trivial many

Used as a prioritization
tool

80/20 rule
 41
Pareto
C&E Matrix, Pareto of Customer Requirements
As They Relate To The Process
7000

6000
Cause & Effect
5000
Count

4000

3000

2000
MEASUREMENTS MATERIALS PEOPLE
1000
Freq of Training
Updates Co. Profiles
0
me
)
ry i on et sm Times
e ll ti era le ct t ick ali ou
s
eu ( ca ce s Iti n P rofi sa fT res g ion rte
nq
u
es
s
ur et/ r an eo Fa B illi n es-s ou he
rs Time Zones Traveler Profiles
Defect Ti me i
o Pro c
R es
o
ec
t Ti c k
r a vele r
Pe r T
e ry T i m
o we st
C o rp
e P ro f
vi c e : C
Ot
t rr T lls li v L vi c e r
e Co Ca De r S
Tim Se
Comp Downtime Resources/Shift

Computer Prog Experience Level

PO Damage
Delivery
Defects
PO Damage
Call Routings
Zabar Volume
Maintenance
Call Volume Postal Service
Phone Service
Servers
Ticket Types
Terminals
Carrier Updates

ENVIRONMENT MACHINES METHODS

Root Cause Analysis (Why-Why, Apollo etc

Lean

Henry Ford,
Ohno/Shingo-
Toyota & Deming;
Ford Invents an Industry!
Leadership & 1908 - First Model T
Vision
1915 - The One Millionth Car
Standardization of
Work 1921 - The Five Millionth Car
Continuous 1924 - The Ten Millionth Car
Improvement
By 1926:
Material Flow
52 Different Businesses
Employee
Development? 88 Operating Plants
Worldwide
200,000 Employees
 44

Ford Production Cycle - 1926

MONDAY
7:00 PM Ore boat docks at the River Rouge plant
TUESDAY
10:55 AM Ore reduced to foundry iron 16 hours later
12:55 PM Cylinder block is cast
5:05 PM 58 machining operations on casting in 55 minutes
6:00 PM Motor assembly takes an average of 97 minutes
7:45 PM Finished motor loaded on railcars for the assembly
plant.
WEDNESDAY
8:00 AM 4-hour assembly time at standardized assembly plant
12:00 PM Dealer takes delivery of car

41 HOURS !
 Demings Management
Principles
FOCUS ON THE CUSTOMER and develop an all
embracing concept of quality
Managers must understand variation and its
causes
Managers must use collaborative work teams
The CEO must become the leader as well as an
agent of change
Deming: Improved Quality Leads To:

Lower cost
Which leads to productivity improvement
Which leads to market share growth
Which leads to a growing business
Which leads to more jobs
The Deming Cycle
PLAN - Plan a
change or a test
ACT * aimed at
4 1 improvement

CHECK - study
the results.
3 2 DO - Carry it out
What did we (preferably on a
learn? small scale)

* ACT - adopt the change

- or abandon it
- or run through the cycle again, possibly under
different environmental conditions.
Taiichi Ohno & Shigeo Shingo

Fathers of the Toyota Production System saw

the genius in Fords system of mass production
but challenged the idea of large lot
production

Toyota, and Japan in general, is ruled by

diversified small lot production
MASS PRODUCTION
Large Lots, Pushed Ahead, Island Mentality
Material

Springs Diodes
LEDs Shipping
Receiving Warehouse
Warehouse
Storage

Repair
Kitting Testing

Ship

Value-Added Time: Minutes

Time in Plant: Weeks
ORDER CASH
Spaghetti World -VSM

Component
Assembly Piece Parts Process
s

James Womack; Dearborn Address 2001

 51

What is Lean Manufacturing?

1. Waste reduction
2. Commitment to perfect
quality
3. Employee enfranchisement
4. Focus on value added
5. Focus on fast turnaround &
on time delivery
 52

Definition of Value added

Value Added Activities

Activities that transform the product.

Activities that develop its form, fit, & function.
Activities that customers are willing to pay for.

Non-Value Added
Activities that should be eliminated or minimized.
 53

Lean = Eliminating waste

Typically 95% of Total Lead Time is

Non-Value Added!!!

Customer
Raw Material RM RM Machine Productio Inspection Rework Shipping
Order
Procurement Receiving Storage Setup n
Processin
g

Total Lead Time

 54

Manufacturings Deadly Sins

1. Overproduction
2. Inventory Waste
3. Waiting Time
4. Transportation Waste
5. Processing Waste
6. Waste of Motion
7. Product Defects
8. Underutilized People
 Building Blocks of Lean

The Lean Factory

PULL / Kanban Cellular / Flow TPM

Quality @ Source POUS Quick Changeover

Standardized Batch Reduction

Work Teams

Visual Plant Value

5S System Stream
Controls Layout Mapping
w
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You
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m
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