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1 2
A B
3 4
Page 1 of 100
= (1 2 ) + (3 4 ) (1 2 3 4 )
= 2 + 2 4 = 22 4
(b) An urn has 6 red, 4 white and 5 blue balls. Three balls are drawn successively from the
box. Given this information find the probability that the balls are drawn in the order where
you have red, followed by white and the last one is blue, (i) with replacement, (ii) without
replacement.
(c) Find the probability of a 2 turning up at most once in two tosses of a fair die. Remember
at most means that it (i.e., number 2) may not come also. You can definitely assume that the
rolling of one dice does not affect the outcome of the other dice.
Page 2 of 100
1 5 5 1 5 5
{(1 2 ) (1 2 ) (1 2 )} = 6 6 + 6 6 + 6 6 0 0 0 + 0 =
35
36
0.2
0.15
f(x)
0.1
0.05
0
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
X Values
+3
+3 1 1 3 1 27 92 1
(i) ( < 0) = 0 (9 2 ) = 9 = 36 27 = =2
36 36 3 0 3 36
+1
+1 1 1 3 1 1 1 52
(ii) (1 +1) = 1 (9 2 ) = 9 = 36 9 3 + 9 3 = 108 =
36 36 3 1
13
27
= 0.481
Page 3 of 100
(iii) ( > 2) = 1 ( 2)
+2
+2 1 1 3
= 1 3 (9 2 ) = 1 9
36 36 3 3
1 8 27 1 54 8 81 27
= 1 36 18 3 + 27 3
= 1 36 3 3 + 3
3
36 1 54 8 81 27 8 2
= 36 36 3 3 + 3
3
= 108 = 27 = 0.0741
1 81 27 54 8 8
= 36 3 3
3
+ 3 = 108 = 0.074
(b) Suppose that the p.d.f (remember what p.d.f means) of a random variable (r.v.), is as
follows:
1 0 < < 1
() = (1)2
0
(i) Find the value of the constant and then sketch the p.d.f. neatly
1
(ii) Find the value of 2. Here means probability or what we have discussed in
class.
Page 4 of 100
2.4
2.2
1.8
1.6
f(x)
1.4
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
X Values
1 1
1 1 1
(ii) 2 = 2 02(1 )2 = 1
2
variable which denotes the outcome of the game pertaining to the number being equal to 1
10 2 10 4
or 2. Hence the p.m.f is given by () = = 10 6 6 .
Now remember that the actual outcome is the outcome from the rolling of the dice, . To this
corresponds different realized values of the net amount gained/lost by , which we denote
using ()
Page 5 of 100
10 2 10 4
= 10
=0{12 30(10 )} 10 6 6
To solve this problem refer to the table given below (refer the last page)
(b) A blood test developed by a pharmaceutical company for detecting a certain disease is
98% effective in detecting the disease, given that the disease is in fact present in the
individual being tested. The test yields a false positive result (meaning a person without the
disease is in-correctly indicated as having the disease) for any 1% of the disease free persons
tested. If an individual is randomly chosen from the population and tested for the disease, and
given that 0.1% of the population actually has the disease, then what is the probability that
the person tested actually has the disease if the test result is positive (which means that the
disease is indicated as being present by the test).
Page 6 of 100
Solution # 4 (15 marks)
Number of computer sold
0 1 2 3 4
Nu = 0.11
1 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.02 0.01 =1, =0,1,2,3,4
mbe
= 0.16
r of
2 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.05 0.05 =2, =0,1,2,3,4
prin = 0.23
ters 3 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.10 0.10 =3, =0,1,2,3,4
sold = 0.27
4 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.15 =4, =0,1,2,3,4
= 0.23
1.00
1.00
=0,1,2,3,4, =0 0 = 0.08
=0,1,2,3,4, =1 1 = 0.12
=0,1,2,3,4, =2 2 = 0.24
=0,1,2,3,4, =3 3 = 0.24
=0,1,2,3,4, =4 4 = 0.32
Denote the printer with and computer with , then each cell denotes , = = , =
Now for any fixed , let ,0 = , and for any fixed let 0, = , . Then (i)
{ = , +} = = , = = ,0 and (ii)
+, = , } = = , = = 0,
Page 7 of 100
= ,=
Moreover: = = = = , and = = =
(= ) ,0
= ,=
= ,
= 0,
( , ) = = , , = 0,1,2,3,4 and
Thus we have
,
= ( |
0,
)
,
= ( |
,0
With the information given above answer the following (show detailed calculations for
each in order to get credit):
(i) What is the probability that more than two computes will be sold on any given day?
=0,1,2,3,4, =3 3 + =0,1,2,3,4, =4 4 = 0.24 + 0.32 = 0.56
(ii) What is the probability that more than two printers will be sold on any given day?
=3, =0,1,2,3,4 3 + =4, =0,1,2,3,4 4 = 0.27 + 0.23 = 0.50
(iii) What is the probability of selling more than two printers GIVEN that more than two
computers are sold?
=3 =3 + =3 =4 +=4 =3 + =4 =4
=3,4 =,3,4 = =
=3 + =4
(0.10+0.10+0.05+0.15) 5
(0.24+0.32)
= 7 = 0.7143
(iv) What is the probability of selling more than two computers AND more than two
printers on a given day?
=3 =3 + =3 =4 + =4 =3 + =4 =4
= 0.10 + 0.10 + 0.05 + 0.15 = 0.40
(v) What is the probability that the company has no sales on a given day?
Page 8 of 100
=0 =0 = 0.03
(vi) Given that the company sells no computers, what is the probability that it sells no printers
also on a given day?
=0 =0 0.03 0.03 3
=0 =0 = = (0.03+0.02+0.01+0.01+0.01) = 0.08 = 8 = 0.375
=0
Page 9 of 100
Solution for problem # 3 (a)
2 { ()}2
(1 2) _ _ _ () () 2 () ()
10 0 -300 -300 0.00 -0.005 90000 1.524 1.328
9 12 -270 -258 0.00 -0.087 66564 22.545 19.185
8 24 -240 -216 0.00 -0.658 46656 142.222 117.104
7 36 -210 -174 0.02 -2.829 30276 492.218 385.567
6 48 -180 -132 0.06 -7.511 17424 991.459 713.777
5 60 -150 -90 0.14 -12.291 8100 1106.173 669.166
4 72 -120 -48 0.23 -10.925 2304 524.408 178.444
3 84 -90 -6 0.26 -1.561 36 9.364 50.984
2 96 -60 36 0.20 7.023 1296 252.840 611.809
1 108 -30 78 0.09 6.763 6084 527.529 832.740
0 120 0 120 0.02 2.081 14400 249.718 339.894
1 -20 4320 3920
{()} {()}
{()} = 20
Page 10 of 100
DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL & MANAGEMENT ENGINEERING
MBA651: QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR DECISION MAKING
2nd MID-SEMESTER EXAMINATION [2011-2012, SEMESTER I]
NOTE THE FOLLOWING
1) Total time for this paper is 90 minutes (1 hours).
2) Total marks is 75 and individual marks are mentioned alongside each question.
3) Total number of questions is 3 (with sub-parts) and you are required to answer ALL of
them.
4) You are allowed to use the statistical tables and the calculator only.
5) Marks will be there for correct formulation of the problem, rather than only the final
answer. Hence step wise marking may be there.
6) Draw diagrams very clearly and legibly, use the concept of set theory where ever
necessary, use tables where necessary.
b) Let X be the life in hours of a radio tube which is normally distributed with mean = 20
and variance 2. If a purchaser of such a radio tubes requires that at least 90% of the tubes
have life exceeding 150 hours then what is the largest value of for which the purchaser is
still satisfied?
Page 11 of 100
for 4 or more years? Draw the pdf and cdf of the exponential distribution very clearly/legibly
but separately.
Let be the random variable which denotes the life of the lathe machines in years, such that
( 2)
1
~( = 2, = 5), i.e., () = 5 5 , 2.
Given this information we are required to find the probability that a particular machine will
survive for 4 or more years which is given by
( 2) ( 2) 2
1
{ > 4} = 5 4 5 = 5 = 5 = 0.67032
4
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06 f(x)
0.04
0.02
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41
Page 12 of 100
life exceeding 150 hours then what is the largest value of for which the purchaser is still
satisfied?
20
As given we consider ~( = 20, 2 ). Now we have { > 150} = 0.90, i.e.,
>
15020 30 30
= 0.90 from which we have 0.1 = 1.28 =
, which implies = 1.28 = 24
b) To find whether the lathe machine is working properly you take a sample of 25 finished
products and check the dimension of each of the finished product. You find the average
dimension of the sample to be 65 mm, while the standard error is 15 mm. Then what would
your comment be regarding whether the machine is in order or out of order if you knew that
the actual dimension should be 66 mm. Assume =5%.
2
Consider ~( = 125, 2 = 100) and more over 5 ~ = 125, 5 = 20, where =
120125 120125
(ii) {120 5 130} = 10 5 10 = {1.12 5
5 5
1.12} = 0.7372
Page 13 of 100
Solutions # 2 (b): 15 marks
To find whether the lathe machine is working properly you take a sample of 25 finished
products and check the dimension of each of the finished product. You find the average
dimension of the sample to be 65 mm, while the standard error is 15 mm. Then what would
your comment be regarding whether the machine is in order or out of order if you knew that
the actual dimension should be 66 mm. Assume = 5%.
()
2 2
Based on the information one would reject 0 : = 66 if | | 1, holds, i.e.,
2
1, or + 1, is true.
2 2
Before we solve the problem we need to find 1, and the value is 1.711. Utilizing the set
2
As both of them are false hence we cannot reject 0 : = 66, which means that there is no
significant difference and hence machine is in order.
Page 14 of 100
where you can assume the population distribution of the level of impurity as normal, i.e.,
(
X ~ N , 2 . )
b) Consider we have a biased dice (with six faces, marked 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6), such that
P[X=i] i. First find out the pmf and then draw the pmf as well as the cdf on the same graph
very clearly and legibly. After that find the value of E(X) and V(X).
From the data given one can easily find the following which are: = 10, 10 = 2.22,
10 = 0.5789, using which our confidence interval is
1, + 1, = (1 )
2 2
0.5789 0.5789
i.e., 2.22 10
1.833 2.22 + 10
1.833 = 0.95
Page 15 of 100
0 < 1
1
1 < 2
21
3 2 < 3
21
6
() = 3 < 4
21
10
21 4 < 5
15
21 5 < 6
1 6
1 2 3 4 5 6
() = 6=1 () = 1 21 + 2 21 + 3 21 + 4 21 + 5 21 + 6 21 = 4.333
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
PDF of () = 21
Page 16 of 100
21/21
15/21
10/21
()
6/21
3/21
Left point
discontinuous
1/21
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
++++++++++++++++END OF QUESTION PAPER ++++++++++++++++
Page 17 of 100
DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL & MANAGEMENT ENGINEERING
MBA651: QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR DECISION MAKING
FINAL SEMESTER EXAMINATION [2011-2012, SEMESTER I]
the slip to Anveeksha Verma, who may either leave it along or change the sign before passing
it on to Kanwardeep Singh. Next, Kanwardeep passes the slip to Monica Agrawal and while
doing so Kanwardeep may or may not change the sign. Monica further on passes it on to
Raksha Agrawal who further on hands over the slip to Saptarshi Sarkar who again passes it
over to Harshil Shah, who finally gives it to the class representative Deepak Gaur. In
handing over the slip to their next partner, Anveeksha, Kanwardeep, Monica, Raksha,
Saptarshi and Harshil all of them may or may not change the sign written on the slip, and
2
their respective probabilities of changing the sign is 3. Deepak sees a plus (+) written on the
slip, then find the probability that the sign marked by Abhishek was also plus (+).
In case is the random variable which denotes the weights of the babies then ~(, 2 ).
2
Moreover in case is the sample size then ~ , . As per the information we do not
know but still we are required to find the lower and higher levels of weights given the
value as 0.01.
From the data = 15, 15 = 3.07, 15 = 0.5071, 14,0.025 = 2.145
Hence:
C.I. is formulated as 1, + 1, = (1 )
2 2
Thus
Page 19 of 100
0.5071
= 1, = 3.07 2.145 = 2.7891
2 15
0.5071
= + 1, = 3.07 + 2.145 = 3.3509
2 15
to Anveeksha Verma, who may either leave it along or change the sign before passing it on to
Kanwardeep Singh. Next, Kanwardeep passes the slip to Monica Agrawal and while doing so
Kanwardeep may or may not change the sign. Monica further on passes it on to Raksha
Agrawal who further on hands over the slip to Saptarshi Sarkar who again passes it over to
Harshil Shah, who finally gives it to the class representative Deepak Gaur. In handing over
the slip to their next partner, Anveeksha, Kanwardeep, Monica, Raksha, Saptarshi and
Harshil all of them may or may not change the sign written on the slip, and their respective
2
probabilities of changing the sign is 3. Deepak sees a plus (+) written on the slip, then find
the probability that the sign marked by Abhishek was also plus (+).
Page 20 of 100
Define the events as follows
1
: Abhishek Malaviya wrote a plus (+) sign and () = 3
2
: Abhishek Malaviya wrote a minus sign and ( ) = 3
Now as Deepak Gaur sees the sign as plus (+) and Abhishek Malaviya also marked a plus
(+) sign
(){|}
Hence we are required to find the following probability {|} =
(){|}+
Change of sign two times: The number of ways is 62 and the corresponding probability
1 4 2 2
is 3 3
Change of sign four times: The number of ways is 64 and the corresponding
1 2 2 4
probability is 3 3
Change of sign six times: The number of ways is 66 and the corresponding probability
1 0 2 6
is 3 3
Change of sign three times: The number of ways is 63 and the corresponding
1 2 2 3
probability is 3 3
Change of sign five times: The number of ways is 65 and the corresponding
1 1 2 5
probability is 3 3
Page 21 of 100
Utilizing these we have:
{|} =
1 1 6 2 0 1 4 2 2 1 2 2 4 1 0 2 6
60 +62 +64 +66
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
1 1 6 2 0 1 4 2 2 1 2 2 4 1 0 2 6 2 6 1 5 2 1 1 2 2 3 1 1 2 5
0 +2 +4 +6 + 1 +3 +65
6 6 6 6 6
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
1 1 1 1 1
+154 6 +1516 6 +64 6
3 36
{|} = 1 1 1 1
3
1 2
3
1
3
1 1 =
+154 6 +1516 6 +64 6 + 62 6 +208 6 +632 6
3 36 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
measurements of the length of a copper wire. On the basis of the data obtained by them,
which are given below, test whether Navpreets measurement is more accurate (think what
Page 22 of 100
11.96 12.25 11.98
1.0
0.7
0.2
-2 0 +2
Page 23 of 100
Hence () is
()
0.5
0.3
0.2
-2 0 +2
of the length of a copper wire. On the basis of the data obtained by them, which are given
below, test whether Navpreets measurement is more accurate (think what accuracy means
Given the data let us denote and as the random variables which denote the distribution of
Page 24 of 100
More we also know that: (i) = 10, = 10 = 12.2850, = 0.333042 and (ii)
= 8, = 8 = 12.2675, = 0.178786
To test the hypothesis or statement that Navpreets measurement is more accurate than
0 : 02 = 0: 2 2 vs 0 : 02 0: 2 2
2
The rule is reject 0 if 2 1, 1,1 is true.
Now we have
2 1 1 2
10 = 0.110917, 82 = 0.031964, 9,7,10.05 = = 3.29 = 0.3040, thus =
7,9,0.05 2
0.110917
0.031964 = 3.470019 0.3040 is FALSE, hence we cannot reject the null hypothesis
1 1
Remember: 9,7,10.05 = as ,,1 =
7,9,0.05 , ,
13.71, while the standard deviation of the sample is 3.55. What should be the minimum
sample size Saurabh should collect such that the confidence interval within which the
population mean would lie is 3.14? As Saurabh was finishing his task, Nitin Bharadwaj
comes running and says that the standard deviation is not of the sample but of the population.
In that case what is the new sample size, considering all other information is correct. How
many extra observations did Saurabh already collect or need to collect, based on Nitins
Page 25 of 100
b) Mohan Kumar K. is measuring the surface finish of crank shaft his production unit is
manufacturing. Depending on the quality of surface finish, the crank shafts can be either
good or bad. Mohan checks a sample of size 85 and finds 10 of them to be bad. Help Mohan
to formulate a 95% confidence interval and find for him the lower and upper limits of the
confidence interval.
13.71, while the standard deviation of the sample is 3.55. What should be the minimum
sample size Saurabh should collect such that the confidence interval within which the
population mean would lie is 3.14? As Saurabh was finishing his task, Nitin Bharadwaj
comes running and says that the standard deviation is not of the sample but of the population.
In that case what is the new sample size, considering all other information is correct. How
many extra observations did Saurabh already collect or need to collect, based on Nitins
Case I
1 1 1
1 1 1, 1 + 1 1, , i.e., 2 1 1, is the length of
2 1 2 1 2
confidence interval. Now from the information we have 1 = 13.71, 1 = 3.55, hence
1 1 1,0.025 3.14
2 1 1,0.025 = 3.14, i.e., = 3.552 = 0.44225
1 1
1 1,0.025 2.120
1 1 = 16, 1 = 17, 16,0.025 = 2.120, i.e., = = 0.5142
1 17
1 1,0.025 2.110
1 1 = 17, 1 = 18, 17,0.025 = 2.110, i.e., = = 0.4973
1 18
1 1,0.025 2.101
1 1 = 18, 1 = 19, 18,0.025 = 2.101, i.e., = = 0.4820
1 19
Page 26 of 100
1 1,0.025 2.093
1 1 = 19, 1 = 20, 19,0.025 = 2.093, i.e., = = 0.4680
1 20
,. .
= , = , ,. = . , i.e., = = .
,. .
= , = , ,. = . , i.e., = = .
1 1,0.025 2.074
1 1 = 22, 1 = 23, 22,0.025 = 2.074, i.e., = = 0.4325
1 23
The value of 1 which satisfies this is between 21 and 22, and we will consider 1 = 22.
Case II
2 2 + , i.e., 2 is the length of confidence
2 2 2 2 2 2
interval. Now from the information given we have 1 = 13.71, = 3.55, hence 2
2
= 3.14, = 1.96, i.e., 2 = 19.64 20
2 2
manufacturing. Depending on the quality of surface finish, the crank shafts can be either
good or bad. Mohan checks a sample of size 85 and finds 10 of them to be bad. Help Mohan
to formulate a 95% confidence interval and find for him the lower and upper limits of the
confidence interval.
10 75
From the information given we have: = 85, = 85 = 0.1177, = 85 = 0.8823. Now
using normal distribution concept we have P (1 )
= (1 ), as
2 2
Page 27 of 100
Hence the 95% confidence interval is:
(1) (1)
+ = (1 )
2 2
conscious about himself and his group members. Remember it is a large music group with
many members and all the group members follow a strict diet regime. They are only allowed
to take special variety of mixed salad and a specially prepared paneer kofta as advised by
their nutritionist Arjun Ravindra Khular. They use at least 800 kgs of this combined special
food daily. Yes we do agree the amount is huge but remember the group members like to eat.
The nutrient contents and the costs are given below in the chart.
Kg per kg of food
Type of food Protein Fibre Cost (Rs.)
Mixed salad 0.09 0.02 0.30
Paneer kofta 0.60 0.06 0.90
The dietary requirement of this special type of food entails an intake of at least 30% protein
and at most 5% fibre. Solve the problem and help Arjun (who has no clue of how to solve an
optimization problem) such that the aim to minimize the total cost is met.
b) Sumit Kumar is a high profile person who has just become the CEO of Ghotala Bank Inc.
in India, after completing his MBA from IIT Kanpur with flying colours. He is in the process
Page 28 of 100
of devising a loan policy for his bank and the amount involves a maximum of Rs.120 crores.
The following table provides the pertinent data about the available types of loans.
Competition with other banks requires that Ghotala Bank Inc. allocates at least 40% of
To assist housing industry in the country home loans must equal at least 50% of the
The bank also has a stated policy of not allowing the overall ratio of bad debts on all
conscious about himself and his group members. Remember it is a large music group with
many members and all the group members follow a strict diet regime. They are only allowed
to take special variety of mixed salad and a specially prepared paneer kofta as advised by
their nutritionist Arjun Ravindra Khular. They use at least 800 kgs of this combined special
food daily. Yes we do agree the amount is huge but remember the group members like to eat.
The nutrient contents and the costs are given below in the chart.
Kg per kg of food
Type of food Protein Fibre Cost (Rs.)
Mixed salad 0.09 0.02 0.30
Paneer kofta 0.60 0.06 0.90
Page 29 of 100
The dietary requirement of this special type of food entails an intake of at least 30% protein
and at most 5% fibre. Solve the problem and help Arjun (who has no clue of how to solve an
optimization problem) such that the aim to minimize the total cost is met.
1 : Salad
2 : Paneer kofta
min . + . (1)
s.t.: + (2)
. + . . ( + ) (3a)
. . (3b)
. + . . ( + ) (4a)
. . (4b)
, (5a, 5b)
Page 30 of 100
(Eqn: 5a)
(Eqn: 4)
(Eqn: 1)
(Eqn: 3)
B (Eqn: 2)
(Eqn: 5b)
0,0 1
Figure 1
Find points A and B and find the objective functions at A and B and then find the minimum
value
India, after completing his MBA from IIT Kanpur with flying colours. He is in the process of
devising a loan policy for his bank and the amount involves a maximum of Rs.120 crores.
The following table provides the pertinent data about the available types of loans.
Page 31 of 100
Type of Loan Interest Rate Bad Debt Ratio
Personal 0.140 0.10
Car 0.130 0.07
Home 0.120 0.03
Farm 0.125 0.05
Commercial 0.100 0.02
Note
Competition with other banks requires that Ghotala Bank Inc. allocates at least 40% of
To assist housing industry in the country home loans must equal at least 50% of the
The bank also has a stated policy of not allowing the overall ratio of bad debts on all
1 : Personal loans
2 : Car loans
3 : Home loans
4 : Farm loans
5 : Commercial loans
Given these we have the optimization problem is such that where we maximize difference
Total interest is
= 0.14 0.91 + 0.13 0.932 + 0.12 0.973 + 0.125 0.954 + 0.1 0.985
Bad debts is
Page 32 of 100
= 0.11 + 0.072 + 0.033 + 0.054 + 0.025
s.t.:
1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 12 (1)
4 + 5 0.4(1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 ) (2a),
i.e.,
i.e.,
1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 0 (5)
Page 33 of 100
DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL & MANAGEMENT ENGINEERING
MBA651: QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR DECISION MAKING
1st QUIZ [2012-2013, SEMESTER I]
NOTE THE FOLLOWING
1) Total time for this paper is 60 minutes (1 hour).
2) Total marks is 40 and individual marks are mentioned alongside each question.
3) Total number of questions is 4 (with sub-parts) and you are required to answer ALL of
them.
4) Marks will be there for correct formulation of the problem, rather than only the final
answer. Hence step wise marking is also there.
6) Draw diagrams and use the concept of set theory where ever necessary.
independence holds true between any two tosses. Now the total number of such placements
5!
of these three (3) 6's and the two (2) 6 s can happen in 53 = 3!2! ways. Hence the
1 1 5 1 5 5! 1 3 5 2 125
probability is 53 6 6 6 6 6 = 3!2! 6 6 = 3888 = 0.03215
Page 34 of 100
Solution # 2 [10 marks]
Let us define the events as given below:
A: The person is affected by tuberculosis
B: The X-ray shows a positive result
Then
AC: The person is not affected by tuberculosis
This gives us the values of P(A) = 0.02 and P(AC) = 0.98. Furthermore the event B can be
broken down into set which are disjoint in the sense the property of exclusiveness and
exhaustiveness will hold, such that (|) = 0.95 and (| ) = 0.01.
Hence () = ( ) + ( ) = (|) () + (| ) ( ) = 0.95
0.02 + 0.01 0.98 = 0.0288
Furthermore the probability that a person has tuberculosis given that he/she has a positive X-
() (|)() 0.020.95
ray result is given by (|) = = = = 0.66
() () 0.0288
A B
Here = ( ) ( ). This can be extended for more than 1 set of B, such that
Page 35 of 100
= ( 1 ) ( 2 ) ( 3 ) . ( ), where = , = 1,2, , and
= 0 for = 1,2, , .
the envelopes at random. What is the probability that at least one of the letters is placed into
A1 A2
A3 A4
Page 36 of 100
(1 2 3 4 ) = (1 ) + (2 ) + (3 ) + (4 ) (1 2 ) (1 3 )
(1 4 ) (2 3 ) (2 4 ) (3 4 ) + (1 2 3 ) + (1 2
4 ) + (1 3 4 ) + (2 3 4 ) (1 2 3 4 )
Now:
1
(1 ) = (2 ) = (3 ) = (4 ) = 4
1 1 1 1
(1 2 ) = (1 ) (2 |1 ) = 4 (2 |1 ) = 4 3 = 12
1 1 1 1
(1 3 ) = (1 ) (3 |1 ) = 4 (3 |1 ) = 4 3 = 12
1 1 1 1
(1 4 ) = (1 ) (4 |1 ) = 4 (4 |1 ) = 4 3 = 12
1 1 1 1
(2 3 ) = (2 ) (3 |2 ) = 4 (3 |2 ) = 4 3 = 12
1 1 1 1
(2 4 ) = (2 ) (4 |2 ) = 4 (4 |2 ) = 4 3 = 12
1 1 1 1
(3 4 ) = (3 ) (4 |3 ) = 4 (4 |3 ) = 4 3 = 12
(1 2 3 ) = (1 2 ) (3 |1 2 ) = (1 ) (2 |1 )
1 1 1 1
(3 |1 2 ) = 4 3 2 = 24
(1 2 4 ) = (1 2 ) (4 |1 2 ) = (1 ) (2 |1 )
1 1 1 1
(4 |1 2 ) = 4 3 2 = 24
(1 3 4 ) = (1 3 ) (4 |1 3 ) = (1 ) (3 |1 )
1 1 1 1
(4 |1 3 ) = 4 3 2 = 24
(2 3 4 ) = (2 3 ) (4 |2 3 ) = (2 ) (3 |2 )
1 1 1 1
(4 |2 3 ) = 4 3 2 = 24
(1 2 3 4 ) = (1 2 3 ) (4 |1 2 3 ) = (1 2 )
(3 |1 2 ) (4 |1 2 3 ) = (1 ) (2 |1 ) (3 |1 2 )
1 1 1 1
(4 |1 2 3 ) = 4 3 2 1 = 24
1 1 1 1
Thus: (1 2 3 4 ) = 4 4 12 6 + 24 4 24 = 0.625
Page 37 of 100
++++++++++++++++ END OF QUESTION PAPER ++++++++++++++++
Page 38 of 100
DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL & MANAGEMENT ENGINEERING
MBA651: QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR DECISION MAKING
1st MID-SEMESTER EXAMINATION [2012-2013, SEMESTER I]
NOTE THE FOLLOWING
1) Total time for this paper is 120 minutes (2 hours).
2) Total marks is 100 and individual marks are mentioned alongside each question.
3) Total number of questions is 4 (with sub-parts) and you are required to answer ALL of
them.
4) You are allowed to use the statistical tables and the calculator only.
5) Marks will be there for correct formulation of the problem, rather than only the final
answer. Hence step wise marking is also there.
6) Draw diagrams and use the concept of set theory where ever necessary.
(b) Consider that there are n persons in the MBA651 class. Then (i) what is the probability
that at least two of you will have the same birthday?, (ii) calculate this probability for n = 52
and (iii) how large need n be for this probability to be greater than 0.5? Please do not
consider leap year.
(i) Thus from the data given we know the following: () = 0.5, () = 0.3, () = 0.1.
We also have (|) = 0.90. (|) = 0.40 and (|) = 0.05
Furthermore:
() = ( ) + ( ) + ( ), as H, M and L are mutually exclusive and
exhaustive events
() () ()
() = () + () + ()
() () ()
Each of you can have your birthday on any one of the 365 days (ignoring leap year). Let be
the event that no two persons amongst you have the same birthday. To find this, order the
Page 40 of 100
students who are in MBA651 course from 1 to , such that you may choose a possible
sequence of length of birthdays each chosen as one of the 365 possible dates. There are 365
possibilities for the first element of the sequence, and for each of these choices there are 365
for the second, and so forth. Hence there are 365 number of total outcomes which are
possible. But remember that we must find the number of these sequences that have no
duplication of birthdays (i.e., no two persons amongst you have the same birthday). For such
a sequence, we can choose any of the 365 days for the first element, then any of the
remaining 364 for the second, 363 for the third, and so forth, until we make choices. Thus
for the choice, there will be 365 + 1 possibilities. Hence, the total number of
sequences with no duplications of birthdays (i.e., no two persons amongst you have the same
birthday) is {365 364 363 . (365 + 1)}.
365364363.(365+1)
Assuming that each sequence is equally likely we have = ,
365
where is the probability that we will have number of MBA651 students who have no
duplication of their birthdays.
(i) Using this, the probability that at least two of the students will have the same birthday is
365364363.(365+1)
given by 1 = 1 .
365
365364363.(36552+1)
(ii) When = 52, then 1 = 1 = 1 0.0219 = 0.978
365 52
365364363.(365+1)
(iii) Let = , then 1 = 1 0.5. Using simple Excel
365
playing a game where a wheel which has numbers marked 1, 2,.., 100 on its circumference
is spun. When the wheel stops spinning, the number i, which is closest to a certain pointer
(which is fixed and kept next to the wheel) is said to be the outcome for that particular spin.
Hence the outcomes are 1, 2,.., 100. Now if the outcome is less than or equal to 40, then
Praveen Srinivasan gets Rs. 40 from Tulika Awasthi; if it is more than or equal to 61, then
Ruchik Sunilbhai Vin gets Rs. 40 from Tulika Awasthi and if the outcome is anything else
then Tulika Awasthi gets Rs. 60 each from Praveen Srinivasan and Ruchik Sunilbhai Vin
Page 41 of 100
respectively. The probability of any particular number being the outcome is uniform. Find the
expected value (in Rs.) Tulika Awasthi wins/losses after 3 such games are played, if we
(b) Help Sunny Goyal with the following problem where he has been told to draw F(x), as
well as f(x) on the same graph, where:
F (x) = 0 if x < 0
= 1 e ( x ) if x 0.
Remember > 0. Help Sunny calculate f(x) and also obtain P[a X b] for any given
numbers a and b.
playing a game where a wheel which has numbers marked 1, 2,.., 100 on its circumference
is spun. When the wheel stops spinning, the number , which is closest to a certain pointer
(which is fixed and kept next to the wheel) is said to be the outcome for that particular spin.
Hence the outcomes are 1,2, . . ,100. Now if the outcome is less than or equal to 40, then
Praveen Srinivasan gets Rs. 40 from Tulika Awasthi; if it is more than or equal to 61, then
Ruchik Sunilbhai Vin gets Rs. 40 from Tulika Awasthi and if the outcome is anything else
then Tulika Awasthi gets Rs. 60 each from Praveen Srinivasan and Ruchik Sunilbhai Vin
respectively. The probability of any particular number being the outcome is uniform. Find the
expected value (in Rs.) Tulika Awasthi wins/losses after 3 such games are played, if we
Denote the three persons Praveen Srinivasan, Tulika Awasthi and Ruchik Sunilbhai Vin as
PS, TA and RS respectively. Let us consider the problem from TAs point of view. If the
random number denotes the amount of money won/lost by TA, then for = 0,1,2,3, which
denotes the number of wins by TA in the three games played, we have = {120
Page 42 of 100
80 4
(3 )40}. Furthermore the probability of her losing is = = 5, while the probability of
100
20 1
her winning is = 100 = 5. Thus when 3 games are played it is a simple example of a
1 4
binomial distribution where = 3, = 5 and = 5 and = {120 (3 )40}.
Hence
() = 3=0 () = 3=0{120 (3 )40} 3 3
3! 1 0 4 3 3! 1 1 4 2 3! 1 2
= 120 3! 5 5 + 40 2!1! 5 5 + 200 1!2! 5
4 1 3! 1 3 4 0
5 + 360 3! 5 5
3!20
= {64 + 16 + 20 + 3} = 24.00
53
= 1 e ( x ) if x 0.
Remember > 0. Help Sunny calculate f(x) and also obtain P[a X b] for any given
numbers a and b.
It is given that:
() = 0 for < 0
= 1 () for 0
Thus:
()
() = =0 for < 0
()
= = () for 0
To draw the graph consider for simplicity = 0 and = 1. Thus the pdf and cdf are of the
form 1 and and the graphs are as follows
Page 43 of 100
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
f(x)
0.3
F(x)
0.2
0.1
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41
To find [ ], we find [ ] = 1 () 1 () =
() () , which is also shown in the graph above. We can also find [
] =
relay in the circuits (Fig I and Fig. II), shown below, is given by p1=1/2, p2=1/3, p3=1/4,
p4=1/5 and p5=1/6. If all relays function independently, then what is the probability that
current flows between A and B for the respective circuits (Fig I and Fig. II).
Page 44 of 100
1 2 3
Fig I
A B
4 5
1 4
Fig II
A 3 B
2
5
(b) Tanveer Singh Mahajan and his team and Minaz and her team are asked to separately
design a new product within a month. From past experience we know that the probability that
team Tanveer Singh Mahajan is successful is 2/3, the probability that team Minaz is
successful is , and the probability that at least one team is successful is 3/4. Assuming that
exactly one successful design is produced, what is the probability that it was designed by
Minaz and her team?
relay in the circuits (Fig I and Fig. II), shown below, is given by p1=1/2, p2=1/3, p3=1/4,
p4=1/5 and p5=1/6. If all relays function independently, then what is the probability that
current flows between A and B for the respective circuits (Fig I and Fig. II).
Page 45 of 100
1 2 3
Fig I
A B
4 5
1 4
Fig II
A 3 B
2
5
Consider Figure I
Let , = 1,2,3,4,5 be the even when the is on and it connects the circuit. Hence current
can flow when we have 1,2,3 are closed, 4,5 are closed and 1,2,3,4,5 are closed, i.e., the
events are:
1 2 3 = 1,2,3 are closed
1 2 3
A B
4 5
1 2 3
A B
4 5
Page 46 of 100
1 2 3
A B
4 5
Consider Figure II
Let , = 1,2,3,4,5 be the even when the is on and it connects the circuit. Hence current
can flow when we have the following scenarios
(b) Suppose Vinayak Gangwar randomly select 5 cards without replacement from an ordinary
deck of playing cards. What is the probability of him getting exactly 2 red cards (i.e., hearts
or diamonds)?
Page 47 of 100
Sagar Bhardwaj selects a number at random from (1, 2, . , 100). Given that the number
selected by him is divisible by 2, help him to find the probability that it is also divisible by 3
or 5.
We plug these values into the hyper-geometric formula as follows which is given as () =
26 26
2 3
, = 0,1, . , . Thus we have () = 52
= 0.32513.
5
Page 48 of 100
DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL & MANAGEMENT ENGINEERING
MBA651: QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR DECISION MAKING
FINAL SEMESTER EXAMINATION [2012-2013, SEMESTER I]
2,., n. It is quite intuitive and obvious to note that Ais, i = 1, 2,., n are not mutually
exclusive events. Now these n objects may distributed over these n places in a total of n! (i.e.,
n
Pn) ways, which may be assumed to be equally likely. So now we have Ai occurs when the
ith place is occupied by the ith object, while the remaining (n-1) places is to be occupied by the
remaining (n-1) objects in any arbitrary order. Hence this total number of ways is (n-1)! (i.e.,
( 1)! 1
n-1
Pn-1), hence ( ) = !
= for each i. Again both Ai and Aj (ij) occur when the ith
Page 49 of 100
and the jth places are occupied by the corresponding objects, while the other (n-2) places are
( 2)! 1
filled up with the remaining (n-2) objects, so now we have = !
= (1),
probability we have:
1 1 1
(1 2 ) = 1 2 ( 1) + 3 ( 1)(2) . +(1)(1)
1 1
!, which implies we have n number of terms in the above expansion, where 1 =
1
which has 1 terms, 2 = ( 1) which has 2 number of terms and so on till the last term
1
= ! which has (1)(1) number of terms, hence we have:
1 1 1 1
(1 2 ) = 1! 2! + 3! . +(1)(1) !. From which we can easily
1 1 1
derive the required probability as: 1 (1 2 ) = 1 1! 2! + 3!
1
. +(1)(1) !. Just note that when n is very large we have
1 (1 2 ) = exp(1) 0.36788
Note: In case one wants to find the probability that that at least one of the objects occupies
the place corresponding to itself, i.e., ith object is in the ith place then the corresponding
such matches when we place these n number of objects in these n number of places?
Page 50 of 100
First consider the probability that m specified events, marked A1, A2,, Am (here Ai are
defined as we have done for solution # 1(a)) occur while the others do not. Let us furthermore
define =
=1 and = = +1 then the probability we are interested to find is
( )!
Now we know and can also find if required that () = !
, while
(|) = 1 = +1 | ,= +1 | + . .
Now = =+1 = = +1 , which would immediately lead us to the fact that:
(|) = 1 = +1 |.
( 1)!
But: | = ( )!
, for j = m+1, m+2,, n
( 2)!
Thus: | = ( )!
for j,k = m+1, m+2,, n and so on.
Hence:
( 1)! ( 2)!
(|) = 1
1
( )!
+
2
( )!
Hence the required probability is the sum of such probabilities, and since the specified
So we finally have:
1
! ( )!
1
( 1)! +
2
( 2)!
1 1 1 1
= ! 1 1! + 2! + (1)( ) ( )!
Page 51 of 100
Controller General of quality and to test the breaking strength of this product he samples 15
such bars from the factory of Gangaredgy Papaigari & Company and notes down the
breaking strength. Those values are as given as: 51.3 52.1 50.3 50.2 51.9 50.0 52.5
50.7 49.3 49.3 48.3 48.1 48.2 47.8 47.5. Examine if Gangaredgy Papaigari &
Companys claim is supported by these data.
mind that we will always try to disapprove the statement made by the person, hence we
always try to reject 0 , which results in the following formulation, i.e., 0 : = 0 52. If
that is the case, then we should have the following hypothesis to test, which is:
0 : = 0 52 vs : = < 52
s
i.e., if the following, X n < 0 tn 1, n , is true then we reject 0
n
Now for the sample (here the sample size is 15) given we can easily calculate that =
1 1
= 49.8333 and 2 = ( )2 = 2.7124. For the problem consider
=1 ( 1) =1
= 0.05, i.e., (1 ) = 0.95. Hence from the table we have 1, = 14,0.05 = 1.761.
1.6469
Hence the RHS is 0 1, = 52 1.761 15
= 51.25117. Now 49.833 is
always less than 51.25117, and as this is true we reject 0 , i.e., the claim of the
Page 52 of 100
dispatched to the central warehouse for final inspection and subsequent dispatch. Find the
probability that if an item or product is picked up at random that it will be defective. Also
calculate that if the item is found to be defective, then what is the conditional probability that
it was produced in plant C2.
Thus with this notational concept we derive the following, given the information from the
problem:
0.04 = 0.032
(2 |)(2 ) 0.50.03
(2 |) = )+(
= 0.10.01+0.50.03+0.40.04 = 0.46875
(1 |)(1 2 |)(2 )+(3 |)(3 )
1
and variance (2) = .
(1 )
Page 53 of 100
Answer # 3(a): [15 marks]
(i) () = 2 2
=1 () = =1 = ( + + . . ) = (1 + + + . . )
(ii) () = ( 2 ) {()}2 . Hence first let us calculate ( 2 ).
( 2 ) = 2 2 3 2
=1 () = =1 = ( + 2 + 3 . . ) = (1 + 2 + 3 + . . )
by xn z1 xn + z 2 , where 1+2=. If 1=2=/2, then we have the usual
n n
100(1-)% confidence interval (C.I.) for . In the above formulation when 12 the interval
is not symmetric about and the length of the interval is L =
(
z1 + z 2 . Prove that the )
n
length of the interval L is minimized when 1=2=/2.
2
where 1 = 2 = 2 . Hence the actual C.I length, is
= 1 + 2
Page 54 of 100
Now to find the minimum length we must have
1
= 1 + 2 (remember we could have also differentiated wrt to 2
1
Thus:
2 2
1
= 1+ = 0, i.e., = 1
1 1
(1)
2
1 2 = 0 (2)
1
Using both the equations (1) and (2) we have 1 = 2 , i.e., 1 = 2 as normal
distribution is symmetric. Moreover it is given that 1 + 2 = , hence 1 = 2 = 2
Page 55 of 100
Basic z x1 x2 s1 s2 s3 s4 Solution
Z 1 -5 -4 0 0 0 0 0
s1 0 6 4 1 0 0 0 24
s2 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 6
s3 0 -1 1 0 0 1 0 1
s4 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2
Thus the calculations yields
2 1 2 5
(1, 5, 4,0,0,0,0,0) (5) 0,1, , , 0,0,0,4 = 1,0, , , 0,0,0,20
3 6 3 6
1 2 1
(0,6,4,1,0,0,0,24) = 0,1, , , 0,0,0,4
6 3 6
2 1 4 1
(0,1,2,0,1,0,0,6) 1 0,1, , , 0,0,0,4 = 0,0, , , 1,0,0,2
3 6 3 6
2 1 5 1
(0, 1,1,0,0,1,0,1) (1) 0,1, , , 0,0,0,4 = 0,0, , , 0,1,0,5
3 6 3 6
2 1
(0,0,1,0,0,0,1,2) (0) 0,1, , , 0,0,0,4 = (0,0,1,0,0,0,1,2)
3 6
These calculations would be used for the 2nd tableau which is given below
Step # 2
Basic z x1 x2 s1 s2 s3 s4 Solution
Z 1 0 -2/3 5/6 0 0 0 20
x1 0 1 2/3 1/6 0 0 0 4
s2 0 0 4/3 -1/6 1 0 0 2
s3 0 0 5/3 1/6 0 1 0 5
s4 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2
Thus the calculations yields
2 5 2 1 3 3 3 1
1,0, 3 , 6 , 0,0,0,20 3 0,0,1, 8 , 4 , 0,0, 2 = 1,0,0, 4 , 2 , 0,0,21
2 1 2 1 3 3 1 1
0,1, 3 , 6 , 0,0,0,4 3 0,0,1, 8 , 4 , 0,0, 2 = 0,1,0, 4 , 2 , 0,0,
4 1 3 1 3 3
0,0, 3 , 6 , 1,0,0,2 4 = 0,0,1, 8 , 4 , 0,0, 2
5 1 5 1 3 3 3 5 5
0,0, 3 , 6 , 0,1,0,5 3 0,0,1, 8 , 4 , 0,0, 2 = 0,0,0, 8 , 4 , 1,0 2
1 3 3 1 3 1
(0,0,1,0,0,0,1,2) (1) 0,0,1, , , 0,0, = 0,0,0, , , 0,1,
8 4 2 8 4 2
These would be used for the 3rd tableau which is given below
Page 56 of 100
Step # 3
Basic z x1 x2 s1 s2 s3 s4 Solution
z 1 0 0 0 0 21
x1 0 1 1 - 0 0 3
x2 0 0 1 -1/8 0 0 3/2
s3 0 0 0 3/8 -5/4 1 0 5/2
s4 0 0 0 1/8 -3/4 0 1
Page 57 of 100
Blend 1 and 50%
cotton
Poly cotton 4.81 6,000 8,500 0.100 30% poly
Blend 2 and 70%
cotton
Formulate the optimization problem for Ankita Hemant Sahare Industries. You are not
required to solve it.
Page 58 of 100
0.082 + 0.053 + 0.034 3000
0.053 + 0.074 1600
6000 1 7000
10000 2 14000
13000 3 16000
6000 4 8500
Page 59 of 100
DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL & MANAGEMENT ENGINEERING
MBA651: QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR DECISION MAKING
FIRST EXAMINATION [2013-2014, SEMESTER I]
Page 60 of 100
1
0.8
0.6
f(x)
0.4
F(x)
0.2
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Page 61 of 100
A and B play a game in which they alternatively toss a pair of dice. The one who is first to
get a total of 7 wins the game. Find the probability that (i) the one who tosses first will win
the same, (ii) the one who tosses second will win the game.
Answer # 2 (a): [15 marks]
(i) The probability of getting a number 7 on a single toss of a pair of dices assumed to be fair)
1
is given by 6. Remember 7 can be formed by the following combinations which are: (1,6),
(2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (,2) and (6,1). If we suppose that A is the first to toss then A will win in any
one of the following mutually cases with the following indicated associated probabilities as
shown below
1
Case 1: A wins he 1st toss and probability is 6
5 5 1
Case 2: A loses on 1st toss, then B loses and then A wins and probability is 6 6 6
Case 3: A loses on 1st toss, then B loses, then again A loses followed by Bs loss and finally
5 5 5 5 1
A wins and probability is 6 6 6 6 6
(ii) Now consider B wins (which is to do with the part (ii) of the problem), then the
5 1 5 5 5 1 5 5 5 5 5 1 5
corresponding probability is: 6 6 + 6 6 6 6 + 6 6 6 6 6 6 + = 11
First let us illustrate this with the simple Vein diagram for the ease of understanding, but the
proof will be given mathematically
Ai
A1 A2 A4
An An-1
Page 62 of 100
Consider there are only two events, i = 1, 2, namely A1 and A2. In that case we can write
A1 A2 = A1 + ( A2 A1 ) , where events A1 and ( A2 A1 ) both belong to A and they are
Now considering the number of events is n, i.e., the events can now be denoted as A1, A2,.,
An such that one can write
A1 A2 An = ( A1 A2 An1 ) An , i.e.,
the whole set of events in to separate class of events one being ( A1 A2 An1 ) and
Thus:
P( A1 A2 An 1 ) + P{An ( A1 A2 An 1 )}
( A1 A2 An1 ) and {An ( A1 A2 An1 )} are disjoint (same logic can be used
here as for i = 1, 2)
P( A1 A2 An ) P( A1 A2 An1 ) + P( An )
Page 63 of 100
P( A1 A2 An ) P( A1 A2 An 2 ) + P( An 1 ) + P( An )
P( A1 A2 An ) P( A1 A2 An3 ) + P( An2 ) + P( An1 ) + P( An )
P( A1 A2 An ) P( A1 A2 An4 ) + P( An3 ) + P( An2 ) + P( An1 ) + P( An )
n
n
P( A1 A2 An ) P( A1 ) + P( A2 ) + + P( An ) , i.e., P Ai P( Ai )
i=1 i=1
(ii) Denoting the given probability by and taking the natural logarithms we find
1 2 1
= 1 365 + 1 365 + + 1 365
2 3
Now we are aware from simple calculus that (1 ) = . Utilizing this
2 3
we have:
1+2++(1) 1 12 +22 ++(1)2
= 2
365 365 2
(1) ( 1)(21)
=
730 12365 2
Page 64 of 100
(1)
For 365 we neglect the higher terms, hence = .
730
1 ( 1) 1
If now = 2 (as per the information give) then we get = = 2 = 0.693.
730
Page 65 of 100
DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL & MANAGEMENT ENGINEERING
MBA651: QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR DECISION MAKING
FINAL SEMESTER EXAMINATION [2013-2014, SEMESTER I]
that the crime has been committed by any one of the three persons you are investigating. Let
(1 ) denote the probability that the crime has been committed by the person where
= 1,2,3. Then what is the conditional probability that the crime has been committed by the
person, given that investigating, person 1 did not prove fruitful, = 1,2,3?
1
(b) Suppose is a random variable and its probability mass function is ( = 1) = 2,
1 1
( = 2) = 3 and ( = 3) = 6. Given this information first find () and on the same
be the event that after investigating person you pass the verdict that the person is not
(1 ) (|1 ) (1 )
guilty. From Bayes formula: we obtain (1 |) = = 3 =
() =1 (| ) ( )
1
1 1
3
1 1 1 = , while for = 2,3 we have: = 3 =
1 +1 +1
3 3 3
1 +2 =1 (| ) ( )
1
1 1
3
1 1 1 =
1 +1 +1 1 +2
3 3 3
1 1 1
(b) Given ( = 1) = 2, ( = 2) = 3 and ( = 3) = 6 the cdf is given below:
Page 66 of 100
0 < 1
1
1 2
2
() = 5 . Utilizing this we draw the pmf and cdf as give:
2 3
6
1 3
1.2
1
0.8
0.6 f(x)
0.4 F(x)
0.2
0
1 2 3
given by
2)
() = (4 2 0 < < 2 . Find (), () and draw the pdf and cdf on the same
0
graph.
(b) The time, in hours, it takes to locate and repair an electrical breakdown in a certain
1 0 < < 1
() = . If the cost involved for a breakdown of duration is given by 3 ,
0
3 + 3 2
1. From this we obtain = 8. Now by formulae: (i) () = () = 8 0 (4 2
Page 67 of 100
+ 3 2
2 3 ) = 1, while (ii) () = { ()}2 () = 8 0 ( 1)2 (4 2 2 3 ) =
1
5
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5 f(x)
0.4 F(x)
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
(b) Letting = 3 denote the cost, so we first calculate its distribution function (remember it
1
is the cdf and NOT pdf/pmf) which is as follows: () = ( 3 < ) = < 3 =
1
1
3
0 = 3 . Let us now differentiate () with respect to to obtain (). Thus () =
2 2 1
1 + 1 1 1 1 1
3
3 for 0 1. Thus: () = () = 3 0 3 = 3 0 3 = 4
span of a bridge can withstand without structural damage resulting, is normally distributed
with mean 400 and standard deviation 40. Suppose that the weight (again, in units of 1,000
kgs) of a car is a random variable with mean 3 and standard deviation .3. How many cars
would have to be on the bridge span for the probability of structural damage to exceed 0.1?
(b) The manufacturer of a new fiberglass tyre claims that its average life will be at least
40,000 kms. To verify this claim a sample of 12 tyres is tested, with their lifetimes (in 1,000s
Page 68 of 100
of kms) being as follows: 36.1,40.2,33.8,38.5,42.0,35.8,37.0,41.0,36.8,37.2,33.0 and 36.0.
(c) A sample of 100 transistors is randomly chosen from a large batch and tested to determine
if they meet the current standards. If 80 of them meet the standards, then formulate an
approximate 95 percent confidence interval for , the fraction of all the transistors.
(b) To determine whether the foregoing data are consistent with the hypothesis that the mean
life is at least 40,000 km, we will test he following hypothesis
7.4633. More over we need to use t-distribution and from the table we have 11,0.05 =
12 (37.2883 40)
1.796. Furthermore from the values he t value comes ou to be = =
7.4633
3.4448. Since this value of t is less than 11,0.05 = 1.796 which gives us the answer that
the null hypothesis, , is rejected at the 5 percent level of significance
Page 69 of 100
(c) We have the formulae as given: = (1 ), which ones
2 (1) 2
(1)
simplified considering the fact that = yields us +
2
(1)
= (1 ). Putting the values gives us:
2
0.80.2 0.80.2
0.8 1.96 100
, 0.8 + 1.96 100
= (0.7216,0.878).
Page 70 of 100
MBA651: QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR DECISION MAKING
1st QUIZ EXAMINATION [2014-2015, SEMESTER I]
that 60% of the sales takes place in state A, 30% in state B and 10% state C. It is also
estimated that 70% of the smokers of state A, 5% of the smokers of state B and 50% of the
smokers of state C smoke that particular brand. Given a person is smoking that particular
brand what are the probabilities that he/she is from states A, B and C respectively?
(a) Let us define the following events which are as stated below
(|3 ) = 0.50,
(1 ) (|1 )
(1 |) =
(1 ) (|1 ) + (2 ) (|2 ) + (3 ) (|3 )
0.60 0.70
= = 0.87
0.60 0.70 + 0.30 0.05 + 0.10 0.50
Page 71 of 100
(b) A perfect coin and a perfect die are thrown repeatedly in that order. What is the
probability of a head appearing before a/an/the (i) six, (ii) even number and (iii) sum is
exactly 12.
(b) Part I
We shall first obtain the probability of the complementary event, i.e., the probability that no
head will appear before the first six. If this complementary event is denoted by , then
may occur in one of the following mutually exclusive forms as stated below
(ii) In the first pair of throws tail appears but not six, in the second pair of throws tail
(iii) In the first pair of throws tail appears but not six, similarly in the second pair of throws
tail appears but not six, while in the third pair of throws tail appears as well as six.
Now if denotes the appearance of tail in the throw of the coin and that of six in the
= (1 1 ) + (1 1 2 2 ) + (1 1 2 2 3 3 ) + .
( ) = (1 1 ) + (1 1 2 2 ) + (1 1 2 2 3 3 ) +
)
1 1 1 5 1 1 1 5 1 5 1 1 1 5 5 2
( = + + += 1 + +
2 6 2 6 2 6 2 6 2 6 2 6 12 12 12
1 5 1 1 6
( ) = 12 1 12 = 7, hence () = 7
Page 72 of 100
(b) Part II
We shall first obtain the probability of the complementary event, i.e., the probability that no
head will appear before the even number. If this complementary event is denoted by ,
then may occur in one of the following mutually exclusive forms as stated below
(i) In the first pair of throws tail appears as well as even number.
(ii) In the first pair of throws tail appears but not even number, in the second pair of throws
(iii) In the first pair of throws tail appears but not even number, similarly in the second pair
of throws tail appears but not even number, while in the third pair of throws tail appears as
Now if denotes the appearance of tail in the throw of the coin and that of even
= (1 1 ) + (1 1 2 2 ) + (1 1 2 2 3 3 ) + .
( ) = (1 1 ) + (1 1 2 2 ) + (1 1 2 2 3 3 ) +
)
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
( = + + + = 1 + +
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 4
1 1 1 1 2
( ) = 4 1 4 = 3, hence () = 3
Page 73 of 100
We shall have a set of outcomes for exactly 12 as sum the minimum being 6 + 6 and the
maximum being when we have 1 + 1+.. 12 times. Using this combination and the fact that
we have to formulate the problem as complementary cases we can get the answer.
= 1 e ( x ) if x 0.
Here > 0. With this information sketch the graph of F(x) and f(x) on the same graph, and
obtain P[a X b] for any given numbers a and b.
()
(a) We all know the relation between () and (), i.e., = (), thus we get
= 1 e ( x ) if x 0 () = () if x 0
In order to facilitate the drawing assume = 1 (which we assume for simplicity), and = 0
then the diagrams are as follows for
F (x) = 0 if x < 0 () = 0 if x < 0
= 1 if x 0 () = if x 0
1.2
0.8
0.6 f(x)
F(x)
0.4
0.2
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
By formulae we have ( ) = () () = (1 ) (1 ) =
= 2 3 , if = 2 and = 3
Page 74 of 100
Question # 2: [10 + 15 =(25) marks]
(b) There are four urns containing (i) 1 white, 1 black, (ii) 2 white, 2 black, (iii) 3
white, 3 black and finally (iv) 4 white, 4 black balls respectively. One ball is taken from
each urn at random, then, what is the probability that (i) two balls are white & two balls are
black and (ii) one ball is white & three balls are black?
(i) Two balls are white & two balls are black
The combination of getting two white and two black is obtained as follows: BBWW,
BWBW, BWWB, WWBB, WBWB, WBBW. Now the combination of one is given as
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
,
1 + 1 2 + 2 3 + 3 4 +4 1 + 1 2 + 2 3 + 3 4 + 4
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
,
1 + 1 2 +2 3 + 3 4 + 4 1 + 1 2 + 2 3 + 3 4 + 4
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
,
1 + 1 2 +2 3 + 3 4 + 4 1 + 1 2 +2 3 + 3 4 +4
1 2 3 4 1 2
Combine them to get the result as: +
1 + 1 2 + 2 3 + 3 4 + 4 1 + 1 2 + 2
3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
+ + +
3 +3 4 + 4 1 + 1 2 +2 3 + 3 4 + 4 1 + 1 2 +2 3 + 3 4 + 4
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
+
1 + 1 2 + 2 3 + 3 4 + 4 1 + 1 2 + 2 3 + 3 4 + 4
The combination of getting one white and three blacks is obtained as follows: WBBB,
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
,
1 + 1 2 + 2 3 +3 4 + 4 1 + 1 2 + 2 3 + 3 4 +4
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
,
1 + 1 2 + 2 3 +3 4 + 4 1 +1 2 + 2 3 + 3 4 + 4
Page 75 of 100
1 2 3 4 1 2
Combine them to get the result as: +
1 + 1 2 + 2 3 + 3 4 + 4 1 + 1 2 + 2
3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
+ +
3 +3 4 + 4 1 + 1 2 +2 3 + 3 4 + 4 1 + 1 2 +2 3 + 3 4 + 4
Page 76 of 100
DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL & MANAGEMENT ENGINEERING
MBA651: QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR DECISION MAKING
1st MID-SEMESTER EXAMINATION [2014-2015, SEMESTER I]
gold coin in each of its drawers, the next chest has one gold coin in one of its drawer and one
silver coin in the other drawer, while the last chest has a silver coin in each of its drawers.
One of the chests is drawn at random and then one of its drawers is opened at random and a
gold coin is found in that drawer. Then what is the probability that this chest contains a gold
random to different individuals, each of whom in turn again forwards the email to other
individuals and so on. That is at each step, each of the recipients of the email forwards it to
of the other individuals at random. Then what is the probability of the email not being
Page 77 of 100
Answer # 1: [10 + 15 =(25) marks]
In a population of ( + 1) individuals a person, called the progenitor sends out an email at
random to different individuals, each of whom in turn again, forwards the email at random
to other individuals and so on. That is at every step, each of the recipients of the email
forwards it to of the other individuals at random. We are interested in finding the
probability of the email not relayed back to the progenitor even after steps of circulation.
The number of possible recipients for the progenitor is . The number of possible choices
each one of these recipients has after the first step of circulation is again , and thus the
number of possible ways this first stage recipients can forward the email equals
= . Therefore after the second step of circulation the total number of possible
1+
configurations equals . Now there are = 2 many second stage recipients each
2
one of whom can forward the email to possible recipients yielding a possible many
1++ 2
third stage recipients after 3 steps of circulation and many total possible
configuration. Proceeding in this manner one can see that after the email has been circulated
through 1 steps, at the step of circulation the number of senders equals 1 who can
1
collectively make many choices. Thus the total number of possible configurations
1
1++ 2 ++ 1
after the email has been circulated through steps equals = 1 . Now
the email does not come back does not come back to the progenitor in any of these steps, if
and only if none of, starting from the recipients of the progenitor after the first step of
circulation to the 1 recipients after 1 steps of circulation, send to the progenitor, or in
other words each of these recipients/senders at every step makes a choice of forwarding the
email to individuals from a total of 1 instead of the original . Thus the number of
ways the email can get forwarded the second, third, .., step avoiding the progenitor
1
+ 2 + 1 1
equals 1 = 1
1 = 1
1 The number of choices for the
progenitor remains . Thus the number of possible outcomes favorable to the event of
1
1
interest equals 1
1
, yielding the probability of interest as
=
( 1)! !()! 1 1 1
!(1)! !
=
= 1
Page 78 of 100
Question # 2: [10 + 15 =(25) marks
1
(a) Suppose is a random variable and its probability mass function is ( = 1) = 2,
1 1
( = 2) = 3 and ( = 3) = 6. Given this information first find () and on the same
0 < 1
1
1 2
2
() = 5 . Utilizing this we draw the pmf and cdf as give:
2 3
6
1 3
1.2
1
0.8
0.6 f(x)
0.4 F(x)
0.2
0
1 2 3
0.1 0.1.
Page 79 of 100
7 1 7 2 7 2 7 2 7 2 7 2 7 2 35
2
, ( ) = 6 1 2 + 2 2 + 3 2 + 4 2 + 5 2 + 6 2 = 12 .
7 35
Thus ( ) = 2
and ( ) = 12
from where Chebychevs inequality is given by
1 ( )
{| ( )| 1 ( )} 2 , i.e., {| ( )| 2 } . This equivalent
1 22
A B
S3
S2 S4
1
Which means that (1 ) = (2 ) = (3 ) = (4 ) = 2.
Now for a closed path to exist between A and B we should have the following:
( ) = 1 ( )
Now we need to know how many such paths are there such that no connection exits between
Page 80 of 100
1 1 1 1 1
1 , 2 and 3 are open, while 4 is closed such that the probability is 2 2 2 2 = 16
1 1 1 1 1
1 , 2 and 4 are open, while 3 is closed such that the probability is 2 2 2 2 = 16
1 1 1 1 1
1 , 3 and 4 are open, while 2 is closed such that the probability is 2 2 2 2 = 16
1 1 1 1 1
1 , 2 , 3 and 4 are open such that the probability is 2 2 2 2 = 16
1 1 1
Hence the total probability that there is no connection between A and B is 16
+ 16 + 16 +
1 1 5
16
+ 16 = 16 . We simply add are these paths are mutually exclusive
5 11
( ) = 1 16 = 16
1
(b) The random variable with probability density function () = (1)!
, > 0 and
= 1,2, ., is called an Erlang distribution with and as the two parameters. Calculate
both () and () and sketch both the pdf and cdf for = 2 and = 3.
which is the Erlang distribution. One should remember that +, = 1,2, .. and > 0.
() = 0 ()
= 0 (1)!
= (1)! 0
Now you can solve this problem using either by parts integration, which is lengthy as we use basic
By parts
() = (1)! 0
1
= (1)! + 0 1
0
Page 81 of 100
1 1 (1) 2
= (1)! + 0
0 2 0 2
1 1 (1) 2 !
= (1)!
0 2 0 3 0 +1 0
!
= (1)! =
+1
(+1) !
() = (1)! 0 = (1)! +1
= (1)! =
+1
() = 0 { ()}2 ()
= (1)! 0 +1 {()}2
(+1)! 2 (+1) 2
= (1)! 2 = =
+2 2 2 2
Now when = 2 and = 3, the density function is of the form () = 4 2 2 , while its
distribution function is () = 0 4 2 2
Let us calculate the distribution () = 0 4 2 2 . Though conceptually to draw the graph very
sketchily we need not derive it but still we want to draw the graph nicely/neatly and legibly. First let
1
() = 0 (1)!
= (1)! 0 1
1 1 2 (1)(2) (1)!
= (1)! 1 3
0 2 0 3 0 0
1 1 2 (1)(2) (1)!
= (1)! 1 3 . +0+0+
2 3
(1)!
.+
Page 82 of 100
1 1 2 (1)(2)
= 1 (1)! 1 + (1)! + (1)! 3 +
2 3
(1)!
. + (1)!
2 2 1 1
= 1 1 + + + .+ (1)!
1! 2!
1 ( )
= 1 =0 !
(2) 4 2
() = 1 2 2=0 !
= 1 2 1 + 2 + 2!
f(x)
F(x)
0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9
Page 83 of 100
DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL & MANAGEMENT ENGINEERING
MBA651: QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR DECISION MAKING
2nd QUIZ EXAMINATION [2014-2015, SEMESTER I]
125C and 150C. Test whether the shrinkage at 150C is greater than that at 125C and assume
shrinkage is normally distributed in each of the two populations pertaining to the two different
125C
3.48 3.58 3.54 3.61 3.57 3.65 3.49 3.61 3.67 3.62 3.69 3.50
150C
3.88 3.72 3.96 4.01 3.59 3.81 3.45 4.06 3.65 4.08
(a) Consider and are the random variables which denote the shrinkage for 125 and 150,
2
,150,10 = 0.045921
0 : = 0 vs 0 : > 0
0 : = 0 vs 0 : > 0
Where as one can easily understand that = () and = () are the actual or population
2 2 ,150 ,10
150,10 125,12 > + 12+102,0.05 ,125
12
,12
+ 10
, else accept the hypothesis 0 .
Page 84 of 100
150,10 125,12 = 3.82100 3.58417 = 0.2368, = 0 (under 0 ), 20,0.05 = 1.725,
(b) A manufacturer of bars of steel claims that the average breaking strength of his product is not less
than 52. The breaking strength of each bar in a sample of 15 is noted as given as: 51.3 52.1 50.3
50.2 51.9 50.0 52.5 50.7 49.3 49.3 48.3 48.1 48.2 47.8 47.5. Given this
data we are to examine if the manufacturers claim is supported by these data. Assume = 0.05.
(b) As per the information provided in the problem the hypothesis will be framed keeping in mind that
we will always try to disapprove the statement made by the person, hence we always try to reject 0 ,
which results in the following formulation, i.e., 0 : = 0 52. If that is the case, then we should
0 : = 0 52 vs : = < 52
sn
i.e., if the following, X n < 0 tn 1, , is true then we reject 0
n
1
Now for the sample (here the sample size is 15) given we can easily calculate that = =1 =
1
49.8333 and 2 = (1) =1( )2 = 2.7124. For the problem consider = 0.05, i.e.,
(1 ) = 0.95. Hence from the table we have 1, = 14,0.05 = 1.761. Hence the RHS is 0
1.6469
1, = 52 1.761 = 51.2249. Now 49.833 is always less 51.2249, hence we
14
copper wire. On the basis of the data obtained by them, which are given below, test whether Shrutis
measurement is more accurate (think what accuracy means here) than Parvas. Consider =0.05.
Page 85 of 100
(in mm) (in mm)
(b) Given the data let us denote and as the random variables which denote the distribution of
More we also know that: (i) = 10, = 10 = 12.2850, = 0.333042 and (ii) = 8,
= 8 = 12.2675, = 0.178786
To test the hypothesis or statement that Shrutis measurement is more accurate than Parvas and
0 : 02 = 0: 2 2 vs 0 : 02 0: 2 2
2
The rule is reject 0 if 2 1, 1,1 is true.
Now we have
2 1 1 2 0.110917
10 = 0.110917, 82 = 0.031964, 9,7,10.05 = = = 0.3040, thus 2
= =
7,9,0.05 3.29 0.031964
3.470019 0.3040 is FALSE, hence we cannot reject the null hypothesis that 0 : 02 = 0: 2
1 1
Remember: 9,7,10.05 = as ,,1 =
7,9,0.05 , ,
(b) Ashish Jindal is testing the tensile strength of a particular alloy. The sample average is 13.71,
while the standard error is 3.55. What should be the minimum sample size Ashish should collect
such that the confidence interval within which the population mean would lie is 3.14? As Ashish was
Page 86 of 100
finishing his task, Ankur Jhavery comes running and says that the value 3.55 if not the standard
error but the standard deviation. In that case what is the new sample size, considering all other
information is correct. How many extra observations did Ashish already collect or need to collect,
(b) Case I
1 1 1
1 1 + , i.e., 2 1 1, is the length of confidence
1 1, 2 1 1 1, 2 1 2
1
interval. Now from the information we have 1 = 13.71, 1 = 3.55, hence 2 1 1,0.025 =
1
1 1,0.025 3.14
3.14, i.e., = = 0.44225
1 3.552
1 1,0.025 2.120
1 1 = 16, 1 = 17, 16,0.025 = 2.120, i.e., = = 0.5142
1 17
1 1,0.025 2.110
1 1 = 17, 1 = 18, 17,0.025 = 2.110, i.e., = = 0.4973
1 18
1 1,0.025 2.101
1 1 = 18, 1 = 19, 18,0.025 = 2.101, i.e., = = 0.4820
1 19
1 1,0.025 2.093
1 1 = 19, 1 = 20, 19,0.025 = 2.093, i.e., = = 0.4680
1 20
,. .
= , = , ,. = . , i.e., = = .
,. .
= , = , ,. = . , i.e., = = .
1 1,0.025 2.074
1 1 = 22, 1 = 23, 22,0.025 = 2.074, i.e., = = 0.4325
1 23
The value of 1 which satisfies this is between 21 and 22, and we will consider 1 = 22.
Case II
2 2 + , i.e., 2 is the length of confidence interval. Now
2 2 2 2 2 2
from the information given we have 1 = 13.71, = 3.55, hence 2 = 3.14, = 1.96,
2 2 2
i.e., 2 = 19.64 20
Page 87 of 100
DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL & MANAGEMENT ENGINEERING
MBA651: QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR DECISION MAKING
FINAL EXAMINATION [2014-2015, SEMESTER I]
Let us use as sample space the unit square, whose elements are the possible pairs of delays for the two
of them. Our interpretation of equally likely pairs of delays is to let the probability of a subset of be
equal to its area. This probability law satisfies the three probability axioms. The event that Romeo and
Juliet will meet is the shaded region as shown in the figure below, and its probability is calculated to
1 3 3 1 3 3 9 7
be 1 = 1 = .
2 4 4 2 4 4 16 16
Page 88 of 100
Probability
1 1 1 1
2
Door # 2 3
2 = 6 Car Goat
1 1 1 1
Door # 1 2
Door # 3 3
2 = 6 Car Goat
1
3
1 1 1
3
Door # 2 Door # 3 3
1=3 Goat Car
1 1 1
3
Door # 3 Door # 2 3
1=3 Goat Car
Tree showing the probability of every possible outcome if the player initially picks Door # 1.
Consider the discrete random variables, all taking values in the set of door numbers as
{1,2,3}.
Page 89 of 100
Let
Then, if the player initially selects Door # 1, and the host opens Door # 3, then the
1.0
0.8
()
Left point discontinuous
0.3
-3 0 +4
Page 90 of 100
Hence () is
()
0.5
0.3
0.2
-3 0 +4
It is given that the pdf is (; , ) = 1 , where > 0, hence our first task is to
x
show that f X (x; , )dx = x 1 exp dx = 1 .
0 0
x x 1
Put = y , which means that dx = dy . Thus we have:
(
f X ( x; , )dx = e y dy = e y )
0 = 1 , which proves that it is a legitimate pdf.
0 0
x
1
x x
FX (x; , ) = f X (x; , )dx = x exp dx
0 0
Page 91 of 100
x x 1
Again using the same substitution where = y , which means that dx = dy , we have
x
x
( )
FX ( x; , ) = e y
= 1 exp
0
x
x
E ( X ) = xf X (x; , )dx = x x 1 exp dx = x exp dx
0 0
0
x x 1
Substitute = y , which means that dx = dy . Thus the expected value is given by
1
1
E ( X ) = y e y dy = 1 + , where we use the concept of gamma function which is
0
1
( z ) = e t t z 1dz . Thus = 1 +
0
e
e x x
FX (e ; , ) = f X (e ; , )dx = x 1 exp
1
0 0
dx = . Substitute = y , which
2
e e e
x 1
( )
y 1 1
means that e = , i.e., 1 e
y
dx = dy . Thus we have: dy = e
= . Which
0
0
2 2
mean e = {log e 2} .
1
df X ( ; , ) d 1
x
=
x exp
dx dx
Thus:
df X ( ; , ) 1 d x x d 1
= x exp + exp x
dx dx dx
Page 92 of 100
x 1 x
= x 1 exp x + ( 1)x exp
2
1
( 1)
Equating this to zero yields: x x 1 + ( 1) = 0 , i.e., o = .
1
(1) 2 2 (;, ) 2 (;, )
Which mean = , provided 2
< 0. First let us find 2
, i.e.,
=
1 1 + ( 1) 2
2
i.e.,
22 + ( 1) 2
2
i.e.,
22 + ( 1) 2 .
2
i.e., (2 2) 21 + ( 1) ( 2) 1
i.e., ( 1) 1 2 ( 2). This is always < 0 for the case
1
(1) 2
when 1 and some similar conditions, thus = is the mode.
x
When = 1, then the pdf is of the form f X ( x; = 1, ) =
1
exp , which is the one
x
parameter exponential distribution we all know where FX ( x; = 1, ) = 1 exp , > 0.
Page 93 of 100
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5 f(x)
0.4 F(x)
fX(x), 0.3
FX(x) 0.2
0.1
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40
Let us consider normal distribution of data. From the data we have = 0.05 and = 25. We
are required to use the t-distribtion so we note its dof (degree of freedom) as 24 (=25-1). The
confidence interval for is , .
2
1
From the data and the table we have: 25 = 25 25
=1 = 513.32, 24,0.025 = 2.064, 24 =
1
25 { 25 }2 = 262.23, utilizing which we have the lower limit and upper limit
24 =1
not less than 52. The breaking strength of each bar in a sample of 15 is noted as given as:
Page 94 of 100
51.3, 52.1, 50.3, 50.2, 51.9, 50.0, 52.5, 50.7, 49.3, 49.3, 48.3, 48.1, 48.2, 47.8 and 47.5. We
are to examine if the manufacturers claim is supported by these data. Consider here = 5%.
As per the information provided in the problem the hypothesis will be framed keeping in mind that we
will always try to disapprove the statement made by the person, hence we always try to reject 0 ,
which results in the following formulation, i.e., 0 : = 0 52. If that is the case, then we should
0 : = 0 52 vs : = < 52
sn
i.e., if the following, X n < 0 tn 1, , is true then we reject 0
n
1
Now for the sample (here the sample size is 15) given we can easily calculate that = =1 =
1
49.8333 and 2 = (1) =1( )2 = 2.7124. For the problem consider = 0.05, i.e.,
(1 ) = 0.95. Hence from the table we have 1, = 14,0.05 = 1.761. Hence the RHS is 0
1.6469
1, = 52 1.761 = 51.2249. Now 49.833 is always less 51.2249, hence we
14
Page 95 of 100
Let number of type A, type B and type C be , and respectively, then the profit function
is
11 + 16 + 15
3
s.t: + 2 + 2 12000
2 2
3
+ 3 + 4600
1 1 1
2
+ 3 + 2 2400
, , 0
Hence adding slacks we have
11 + 16 + 15 + 01 + 02 + 03
3
s.t: + 2 + 2 + 1 = 12000
2 2
3
+ 3 + + 2 = 4600
1 1 1
2
+ 3 + 2 + 3 = 2400
, , , 1 , 2 , 3 0
Variables 1 2 3 ()
-3 0 -3 8 0 0 96000
1 3/4 0 0 6000
2 1/3 0 1/2 -1/3 1 0 600
3 1/3 0 1/4 -1/6 0 1 400
Variables 1 2 3 ()
0 0 -3/4 13/2 0 9 99600
0 1 3/8 0 -3/2 5400
2 0 0 -1/6 1 -1 200
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1 0 3/4 -1/2 0 3 1200
Variables 1 2 3 ()
0 0 0 6 3 6 100200
0 1 0 1 -3/2 0 5100
0 0 1 -2/3 4 -4 800
1 0 0 0 -3 6 600
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effect on March 1 will raise each figure by 10%, however. Furthermore each GM3A motor held in
stock costs $0.18/month, and each GM3B has a carrying cost of $0.13/month. Greenbergs
accountants allow monthly ending inventories as an acceptable approximation to the average
inventory levels during the month. The carrying cost structure is as follows:
Model January February March April
GM3A 800 700 1000 1100
GM3B 1000 1200 1400 1400
Suppose that Greenberg is starting the new four-month production cycle with a change in design
specifications that left no old motors in stock on January 1. Greenberg also want to have on hand an
additional 450 GM3As and 300 GM3Bs at the end of April. Storage area of Greenberg Motors can
hold a maximum of 3,300 motors of either type (they are similar in size) at any one time. Greenberg
has a base employment level of 2.240 labor hrs/month such that capacity is 2,240 hrs/month. In a busy
period, though, the company can bring two skilled former employees on board (they are now retired)
to increase capacity to 2,560 hrs/month. Each GM3A motor produced requires 1.3 hrs of labor, and
each GM3B takes a worker 0.9 hrs to assemble. With this information formulate a LP accordingly,
you are NOT required to solve it.
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Objective function which has both production and inventory costs
Combining (Eqn 1) and (Eqn 2) we have the total cost which is the objective function and it
is shown below
10XA1+10XA2+11XA3+11XA4+6XB1+6XB2+6.60XB3+6.60XB4+0.18IA1+0.18IA2+0.18IA3+0.18
IA4+0.13IB1+0.13IB2+0.13IB3+0.13IB4 (Eqn 3)