Political stability and water availability are two critical uncertainties (there are four

situations)
Each situation means one scenario for the future
Describe each scenario

Other examples

1. Whether consumer acceptance will be high or low

2. Whether the manufacturers are able to produce the desired quality of technology
or not
These are then considered together in a scenario matrix. Four different scenarios will

come out in the corners of the matrix, like in the figure below. A look into the Future of the
Global Automobile Industry with an emphasis on Emerging Fuel Technologies Rivalry Strategy Impact
Next, the most important key trends and other key uncertainties identified through the
PEST analysis, expert interviews (SEE APPENDIX 4A and 4B) and the assessment of the
emerging fuel technologies, as seen in the above table, are then added to the resulting
industry scenarios. In regards to the speed of commercialization and consumers
acceptance we have identified governmental regulations and the volatility in the oil price
To give a look into one specific future we will through scenario 2, New Era of the

Automobile Industry, illustrate the impact of the emerging fuel technologies on the rest

of the Porters 5 Forces; Internal Rivalry, Bargaining Power of Buyers, New Entrants and

Suppliers in a given future scenario. Our choice of scenario is based on that the automobile

manufacturers would be interested to have an understanding of how a future where the

technology is readily available, and the consumer acceptance is high, will cause shifts in

the rivalry within the automobile industry. This however does not decrease the likelihood

and impact of the other plausible scenarios to be realized in the future.

All in all, manufactures have taken a wait-and-see attitude, and have continued the

business as usual within the boundaries of existing expertise and skills.

200 to 300 words for each scenario is fine

The first critical uncertainties are 1. Whether the manufacturers are able to produce high
performance of technology or not. 2. Whether the developers have enough fund to
develop new bus propulsion

The second critical uncertainties are 1. Whether the manufacturers are able to produce
high performance of technology or not. 2. Whether the new renewable energy sources
can be explored.