Systematic Risk Assessment of High Risk Structures Against Disproportionate Collapse PDF

Systematic Risk Assessment of High-
risk Structures against

Disproportionate Collapse
Based on IStructE guidelines
Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil
Key Concepts and Eurocode Requirements
2. BACK GROUND AND DESIGN

OBJECTIVES
7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 2

Risk-based approach for design
(against disproportionate collapse)
Not a substitute for the lack of structural form

Objectives
Identify Hazards
Eliminate the hazards
Develop risk-reduction measures
Level of detail Engineer to decide
Qualitative, Semi-quantitative & fully quantitative

Risk
Hazard: something which has the potential to cause harm
Action on the structure
Soft hazard [eg: failure to communicate effectively]
Risk = Likelihood Consequence

Risk-based design
Acceptable level of risk unique for a structure
Good risk management
Costs of risk reduction magnitude of risk
Secondary benefit
Indentifying and communicating risks

Reduction of risk
As low as reasonably
practicable
Approach 1:
Reduce all risk to threshold
Approach 2:
Reduce all risks so far as reasonably practicable(SFARP)
Risks above threshold unacceptable
Building risk classification
Class 1
Class 2A Lower Risk Group
Class 2B Upper Risk Group
Class 3 High Risk Group
a systematic risk assessment of the building
should be undertaken taking into account both
foreseeable and unforeseeable hazards

Framework for a systematic risk assessment
3. DEVELOPMENT OF A SYSTEMATIC
RISK ASSESSMENT

Framework
Single author full responsibility
Suitable Qualification and Experience (SQEP)
Risk assessment workshop
HAZard and Operability study (HAZOP)
Framework
Scenario-independent design
Scenario-dependent design

1 Identify the hazards
Eliminate the Determine the

2 3
hazards if possible tolerable risk level
Risk = Likelihood Consequence 4
Identify risk reduction measures 5
Benefit / Cost assessment 6

Review
Implement risk reduction 7
Residual risk 8
Sensitivity of the risk assessment 9
Communicate
7/18/2014 ReviewHarikrishnan
the overall level of risk
Panikkaveettil 10
remaining risks
Likelihood scale
Example Likelihood scale
Approximate return period
Likelihood Frequency
(based on 50 year design life)
Frequent/
10 times in design life Less than 1 in 10 years
common
Likely 50% probability of occurrence during design life 1 in 10 years to 1 in 100 years
Unlikely 10% probability of occurrence during design life 1 in 100 years to 1 in 1000 years
Rare 2% probability of occurrence during design life 1 in 1000 years to 1 in 10000 years
Improbably 0.1% probability of occurrence during design life 1 in 10000 years to 1 in 100000 years
Negligible Less than 0.1% probability of occurrence during design life Greater than 1 in 100000 years

Consequence Scale

Risk Threshold

Parties involved in risk assessment
Client/building owner
Structural engineer (designer)
Other designers
External stakeholders
Building control authority
CDM coordinator/ risk management specialist


2 3

Review
Residual risk 8
Communicate
Panikkaveettil 15
remaining risks
(1) Identify the hazards


2 3

Review
Residual risk 8
Communicate
Panikkaveettil 17
remaining risks

2 3

Review
Residual risk 8
Communicate
Panikkaveettil 18
remaining risks
(2) Eliminate the hazards
Easier at the early stages of design


2 3

Review
Residual risk 8
Communicate
Panikkaveettil 20
remaining risks

2 3

Review
Residual risk 8
Communicate
Panikkaveettil 21
remaining risks
(3) Determine the tolerable risk
threshold
Extent of collapse for any given likelihood
The threshold should be skewed towards
consequence
This effect diminishes beyond a certain point


2 3

Review
Residual risk 8
Communicate
Panikkaveettil 23
remaining risks

2 3

Review
Residual risk 8
Communicate
Panikkaveettil 24
remaining risks
(4) Evaluate the risk
Risk = likelihood consequence
Watch points
Sensitivity of solution/risk


2 3

Review
Residual risk 8
Communicate
Panikkaveettil 26
remaining risks

2 3

Review
Residual risk 8
Communicate
Panikkaveettil 27
remaining risks
(5) Identify risk reduction measures
Irrespective of level of risk
Reduction of a risk may increase another risk
Not limited technical
Soft (procedural)


2 3

Review
Residual risk 8
Communicate
Panikkaveettil 29
remaining risks

2 3

Review
Residual risk 8
Communicate
Panikkaveettil 30
remaining risks
(6) Cost-benefit assessment
Cost financial cost, programme delay
Benefit reduction in fatality, injury

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Systematic Risk Assessment of High-

risk Structures against

2. BACK GROUND AND DESIGN

7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 2

Not a substitute for the lack of structural form

7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 3

7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 4

7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 5

7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 7

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7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 9

Eliminate the Determine the

Risk = Likelihood Consequence 4

Identify risk reduction measures 5

Benefit / Cost assessment 6

Implement risk reduction 7

Sensitivity of the risk assessment 9

7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 11

7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 12

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Eliminate the Determine the

Risk = Likelihood Consequence 4

Identify risk reduction measures 5

Benefit / Cost assessment 6

Implement risk reduction 7

Sensitivity of the risk assessment 9

7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 16

Eliminate the Determine the

Risk = Likelihood Consequence 4

Identify risk reduction measures 5

Benefit / Cost assessment 6

Implement risk reduction 7

Sensitivity of the risk assessment 9

Eliminate the Determine the

Risk = Likelihood Consequence 4

Identify risk reduction measures 5

Benefit / Cost assessment 6

Implement risk reduction 7

Sensitivity of the risk assessment 9

7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 19

Eliminate the Determine the

Risk = Likelihood Consequence 4

Identify risk reduction measures 5

Benefit / Cost assessment 6

Implement risk reduction 7

Sensitivity of the risk assessment 9

Eliminate the Determine the

Risk = Likelihood Consequence 4

Identify risk reduction measures 5

Benefit / Cost assessment 6

Implement risk reduction 7

Sensitivity of the risk assessment 9

7/18/2014 Harikrishnan Panikkaveettil 22

Eliminate the Determine the

Risk = Likelihood Consequence 4

Identify risk reduction measures 5

Benefit / Cost assessment 6

Implement risk reduction 7

Sensitivity of the risk assessment 9

Eliminate the Determine the

Risk = Likelihood Consequence 4

Identify risk reduction measures 5