Professional Documents
Culture Documents
W?|hL_U|L?
D glxvlyh wudqvsruw htxdwlrq lq whupv ri udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq ri wkh dlu0oohg
sruh vsdfh ri dq lvrwurslf srurxv pdwhuldo zloo eh ghulyhg lq fkdswhu 71 Wklv
htxdwlrq dffrxqwv iru wkh pdwhuldo surshuwlhv wkurxjk wkh glxvlrq frhflhqw
+Ht1 715<, dqg wkh sduwlwlrq fruuhfwhg srurvlw| +Ht1 715;,1 Lq wkh fdvh ri frqfuhwh/
vhyhudo pdwhuldo surshuwlhv +srurvlw|/ prlvwxuh frqwhqw, dqg wudqvsruw frhflhqwv
+glxvlrq frhflhqw, duh qrw frqvwdqw lq wlph ehfdxvh wkh udqgrp dqg frpsoh{
plfurvwuxfwxuh lv g|qdplfdoo| uhodwhg wr wkh surfhvv ri k|gudwlrq dqg prlvwxuh
wudqvsruw +vhh fkdswhu 5,1 Lq frqfuhwh/ lq dgglwlrq wr d eurdg glvwulexwlrq ri
djjuhjdwh sduwlfoh vl}hv wkh k|gudwhg fhphqw pdwul{ jlyhv ulvh wr d eurdg glvwul0
exwlrq ri sruh0vl}hv1 Wkh udwh dqg hyroxwlrq ri k|gudwlrq ghwhuplqhv wkh dprxqw/
glvwulexwlrq dqg frqqhfwlylw| ri fhuwdlq w|shv ri sruhv1 K|gudwlrq lwvhoi ghshqgv
rq wkh wrwdo txdqwlw| ri zdwhu vwruhg lq wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh1 Lqlwldoo| wkh dprxqw
ri zdwhu suhvhqw lq wkh pl{ lv uhodwhg wr wkh zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr/ gxulqj fxulqj
86
87 Frqfuhwh prghoolqj
dqg vwrulqj wkh hqylurqphqwdo frqglwlrqv zloo judgxdoo| grplqdwh wkh prlvwxuh
frqwhqw ri wkh k|gudwhg plfurvwuxfwxuh1
Wklv fkdswhu frqwdlqv irxu vhfwlrqv1 Lq vhfwlrq 615 d eulhi ghvfulswlrq ri wkh
khdw0ri0k|gudwlrq prgho iru eohqghg fhphqwv zloo eh jlyhq1 Zlwk wklv prgho/ wkh
frqfuhwh khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwh xvhg dv wkh vrxufh whup lq wkh htxdwlrq ri wkhu0
prg|qdplf hqhuj| frqvhuydwlrq lv frpsxwhg1 E| vroylqj wklv htxdwlrq iru wkh
vsdfh dqg wlph grpdlq ri lqwhuhvw/ wkh whpshudwxuh glvwulexwlrq/ ghjuhh ri k|0
gudwlrq ri frqfuhwh dqg wkh dprxqw ri fkhplfdoo| frpelqhg zdwhu duh jhqhudwhg1
Wkhvh txdqwlwlhv vhuyh dv lqsxw wr frpsxwh wkh plfur0dvshfwv ri sruh vwuxfwxuh
ghyhorsphqw ri wkh k|gudwhg fhphqw sdvwh +vhfwlrq 616,1 Wkh g|qdplfdo frx0
solqj ri wkh k|gudwlrq/ ghyhorsphqw ri plfurvwuxfwxuh dqg prlvwxuh wudqvsruw lv
dfklhyhg e| lqwhjudwlqj doo wkhvh frqwulexwlrqv lq d pdvv frqvhuydwlrq htxdwlrq
zulwwhq lq whupv ri sruh oltxlg0zdwhu suhvvxuh1 Wkh vlqn whup ri wklv frqvhuyd0
wlrq htxdwlrq uhhfwv fkdqjhv lq wkh exon srurvlw| dqg lwv glvwulexwlrq/ wkh udwh
ri prlvwxuh orvv gxh wr k|gudwlrq dv zhoo dv wkh fkdqjh lq wkh ghjuhh ri vdwxudwlrq
ri ydulrxv w|shv ri sruhv +vhfwlrq 617,1 Wklv dqdo|vlv zloo eh fduulhg rxw xqghu
wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw frqfuhwh lv dq lvrwurslf/ krprjhqhrxv dqg xqlirup srurxv
pdwhuldo1 Wkh frqglwlrqv xqghu zklfk wklv dvvxpswlrq lv ydolg zloo eh glvfxvvhg
+vhfwlrq 618,1
2 *|UL4TL?i?| i@|)_h@|L?
K|gudwlrq ri fhphqw +vhh vhfwlrq 517, lv dq h{rwkhuplf uhdfwlrq lq zklfk wkh ole0
hudwhg wkhupdo hqhuj| lv wudqvihuuhg lq frqfuhwh ghshqglqj rq wkh hqylurqphqwdo
frqglwlrqv wr wkh vxuidfhv ri wkh vwuxfwxuh1 Wkh surfhvv ri khdw frqgxfwlrq dqg
wkh whpshudwxuh ghshqghqfh ri fhphqw k|gudwlrq lqwurgxfh glvwxuedqfhv lq wkh
whpshudwxuh glvwulexwlrq dqg ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq1 Wkh khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwh gli0
ihuv dw hdfk orfdwlrq ri wkh vwuxfwxuh dqg frqvhtxhqwo| lqxhqfhv wkh dprxqw ri
oltxlg zdwhu lq wkh ghyhorslqj plfurvwuxfwxuh1 Wkxv/ dq dffxudwh ghvfulswlrq ri
wkh surfhvv ri fhphqw k|gudwlrq kdv wr xsgdwh dw hdfk vwhs wkh whpshudwxuh dovr
wdnlqj lqwr dffrxqw lwv klvwru|1 Dgglwlrqdoo|/ vroxwlrqv iru lqwhuqdo yduldeohv vxfk
dv wkh ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq/ fkhplfdoo| erxqg zdwhu/ dyhudjh sruh0zdwhu frqwhqw/
fdq eh rewdlqhg1
E| dsso|lqj wkh wkhuprg|qdplf hqhuj|0frqvhuydwlrq odz/ rqh rewdlqv wkh
iroorzlqj htxdwlrq=
fr YA
Y|
@ gly +uW , . K> +614,
615 Pxowlfrpsrqhqw khdw0k|gudwlrq 88
htxdo wr wkh khdw surgxfwlrq udwh ri k|gudwlrq dw whpshudwxuh W 1 Xvlqj Ht1 617
dqg wkh fruuhvsrqglqj Duukhqlxv* sorw +orjdulwkp ri K yhuvxv wkh lqyhuvh ri W ,
wkh judglhqw htxdov . E-' > iurp zklfk wkh wkhupdo dfwlylw| +dfwlydwlrq hqhuj|,
fdq eh fdofxodwhg1 Wkh ydoxh ri K fdofxodwhg e| h{wudsrodwlrq wr }hur jlyhv
K" +T ,1
Wkh frqwdfw suredelolw|/ / ehwzhhq xqk|gudwhg srzghu sduwlfohv dqg oltxlg
fdsloodu| zdwhu ghshqgv rq wkh suredelolw| ri prohfxodu froolvlrqv wkxv/ lv lqx0
hqfhg e| wkh dprxqw ri oltxlg zdwhu lq wkh ghyhorslqj plfurvwuxfwxuh +h{suhvvhg
shu xqlw pdvv ri fhphqw,/ $,^ 1 Wklv lv h{suhvvhg dv wkh udwlr ri pdvv ri oltxlg
zdwhu dqg lqlwldo srzghu pdvv/ l1h1=
$,^ @ 4 "SR 6SR T 6
S
> +618,
zlwk +nj p3 , wkh ghqvlw| ri oltxlg zdwhu dw urrp whpshudwxuh +<<:18 nj p3 ,/
SR wkh fdsloodu| srurvlw|/ l1h1 wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh yroxph ri fdsloodu| sruhv dqg
wkh yroxph ri fhphqw sdvwh pSR wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh yroxph ri oltxlg zdwhu
frqwdlqhg lq fdsloodulhv dqg wkh wrwdo yroxph ri fdsloodulhv dqg Y6 wkh yroxph
iudfwlrq ri fhphqw sdvwh lq frqfuhwh1
Uhgxfwlrq ri wkh frqwdfw suredelolw| dv k|gudwlrq surjuhvvhv rffxuv qrw rqo|
ehfdxvh ri d ghfuhdvhg ydoxh ri $,^ exw dovr e| dq lqfuhdvlqj wklfnqhvv ri wkh
k|gudwhg fhphqw sduwlfohv1 Dvvxplqj d gluhfw sursruwlrqdolw| ehwzhhq wkh yroxph
ri wkh k|gudwhg sduwlfoh dw d fhuwdlq lqvwdqw2ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq/ / dqg wkh
616 Plfurvwuxfwxudo ghyhorsphqw prgho 8:
zkhuh wkh udwlr ''c" ghqhv wkh ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq ri hdfk frpsrqhqw1 Iurp wklv
uhodwlrq rqh fdq vhh wkdw/ dv wkh glphqvlrq ri wkh xqk|gudwhg sduwlfoh ehfrphv
vpdoohu/ zlwk wlph/ d odujhu ghfuhdvh lq wkh gldphwhu ri wkh +vdph, sduwlfoh lv
qhhghg wr dfklhyh wkh vdph ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq1
Ilqdoo|/ wkh frqwdfw suredelolw| lv h{suhvvhg lq dq hpslulfdo uhodwlrq zlwk
$,^ +Ht1 618, dqg +Ht1 619,=
2e
@ 4 h{s 8 / ,^
l
= +61:,
diwhu pl{lqj fhphqw zlwk zdwhu/ fruuhvsrqgv wr d glvshuvh fdvh dqg d odujh vsuhdg
lq wkh vl}h ri fhphqw sduwlfohv lv frqvlghuhg +vhh Ilj1 6 lq wkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq/
vwdjh 4,1 Lq wkh vwuxfwxudo ghyhorsphqw/ wkh odujhu sduwlfohv vhhp wr ghflgh wkh
pruskrorjlfdo ihdwxuhv ri d sdvwh1 Wkh vpdoohu vl}hg sduwlfohv hlwkhu dgkhuh wr
wkh vxuidfh ri wkh odujhu rqhv ru/ diwhu pl{lqj zlwk zdwhu/ frpsohwho| glvvroyh dqg
vkrz djjorphudwlrq dqg rffxodwlrq1
Lw lv srvvleoh wr ghvfuleh wkh uhdo +glvshuvh, frqjxudwlrq ri wkh v|vwhp e|
dq lghdol}hg +rughuhg, vwdwh +vhh Ilj1 6 lq wkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq/ vwdjh 5,
frqvlghulqj wkh iroorzlqj=
41 Hdfk sduwlfoh lq wkh glvshuvh v|vwhp kdv/ rq dyhudjh/ d iuhh fxelf yroxph/
o dydlodeoh iru h{sdqvlrq dqg ri htxlydohqw vskhulfdo udglxv/ ue^ =
*
o @ v . 5uf > ue^ @ eZ o @ "o> +61;,
zkhuh v +p, lv wkh dyhudjh vsdflqj ehwzhhq rxwhu vxuidfhv ri srzghu sduwlfohv
dqg " lv fdoohg wkh vwhuhrorjlfdo idfwru +vhh Ilj1 6 lq wkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq/
vwdjh 6,1
51 Wkh dyhudjhg yroxphwulf frqfhqwudwlrq J ri d xqlirupo| glvshuvhg v|vwhp
ri vskhulfdo sduwlfohv ri udglxv uf dqg dyhudjh vsdflqj v fdq eh frpsxwhg dv wkh
udwlr ehwzhhq wkh sduwlfoh yroxph dqg wkh yroxph dydlodeoh iru lwv jurzwk=
J @ EnCfr > +61<,
2of
Li zh zulwh J dv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh srzghu ghqvlw|/ R +Ht1 519, dqg ri wkh
zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr/ S 6 =
J @ TTRJ_eo @ 4R
> +6144,
|J|@, n 4
+ S ,6
iurp Ht1 61< dqg Ht1 6144 zh fdq fdofxodwh wkh dyhudjh vsdflqj ehwzhhq srzghu
sduwlfohv/ v/ dv=
*
v @ 5uf Jf 4 . 4 4R
S 6
4 = +6145,
Lq vhfwlrq 518 lw zdv phqwlrqhg wkdw wkh sruh vsdfh ri wkh fhphqw sdvwh ri
wrwdo srurvlw| % fdq eh glylghg lqwr wkuhh eurdg fdwhjrulhv/ l1h1 wkh lqwhuod|hu +%, ,/
jho +%} , dqg fdsloodu| +%S , srurvlw|1 Iru fodulw|/ lw lv uhfdslwxodwhg wkdw fdsloodu|
srurvlw| h{lvwv lq wkh odujh vsdfh ehwzhhq srzghu sduwlfohv/ jho srurvlw| h{lvwv lq
wkh lqwhuvwlwldo vsdfhv ri jho surgxfwv +FVK judlqv, zkloh lqwhuod|hu srurvlw| lv
wkh vsdfh ehwzhhq wkh od|hu vwuxfwxuhv ri FVK frpsulvlqj wkh lqwhuod|hu zdwhu
vwurqjo| erxqg wr wkh vxuidfhv1 Iru k|gudwlrq uhdfwlrqv rqo| wkh zdwhu khog
lq wkh fdsloodu| sruhv lv uhohydqw vlqfh lw uhsuhvhqwv wkh rqo| vsdfh zkhuh qhz
k|gudwlrq surgxfwv fdq eh iruphg1 Nqrzlqj wkh dyhudjh ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq/
/ ri frqfuhwh dqg wkh dprxqw ri fkhplfdoo| frpelqhg zdwhu/ */ wkh zhljkw dqg
yroxph ri glhuhqw k|gudwlrq surgxfwv shu xqlw yroxph ri fhphqw sdvwh fdq eh
93 Frqfuhwh prghoolqj
frpsxwhg +vhfwlrq 51:,1 Iurp Ht1 5148 dqg Ht1 519/ wkh jho dqg fdsloodu| srurvlwlhv
iroorz dv=
%} @ Y}R%S %, %S @ 4 Y}R +4 , `4RR = +6148,
Wkh udwlr %, ehwzhhq wkh yroxph ri lqwhuod|hu sruhv dqg wkh yroxph ri gu| jho
surgxfwv zlwk wkh ghqvlw|/ } / lv jlyhq e| Ht1 51491 Dvvxplqj d od|hu vwuxfwxuh
zlwk dq lqwhuod|hu vsdflqj w ri rqh zdwhu prohfxoh +3=5; qp, iru wkh FVK pdvv
dqg ghqrwlqj zlwk v, +p2 nj3 , wkh vshflf vxuidfh duhd ri wkh lqwhuod|hu/ rqh jhwv=
%, @ 2 w v, } = +6149,
Wkh ydoxh ri v, lv xvxdoo| dvvxphg wr eh ghshqghqw rq wkh plqhudorjlfdo fkdu0
dfwhulvwlfv ri wkh srzghu1
Wr ghwhuplqh wkh glvwulexwlrqv ri wkh fdsloodu|/ jho dqg lqwhuod|hu srurvlwlhv/
rqh kdv uvw wr ghwhuplqh wkh vshflf vxuidfh duhdv ri hdfk ri wkhvh skdvhv1 Dv d
jho ri vlplodu surshuwlhv lv iruphg frqwlqxrxvo|/ lwv plfurvwuxfwxudo surshuwlhv duh
frqvwdqw dqg lqghshqghqw rq wkh surjuhvv ri k|gudwlrq1 Wkxv/ wkh vxuidfh duhd
ri wkh jho/ V} +p2 p3 , shu xqlw yroxph ri wkh sdvwh lv vlpso|=
V} @ Z}r v} > +614:,
zlwk wkh vshflf vxuidfh duhd ri k|gudwhv v} @731333 p2 nj3 dqg Z}r wkh yroxph
ri jho vrolgv +vhh dovr vhfwlrq 51:,1 Wkh vshflf vxuidfh duhd ri fdsloodu| srurvlw|/
VS +p2 p3 ,/ ghqhg shu xqlw yroxph ri sdvwh/ pxvw eh frpsxwhg dw hdfk vwdjh
ri k|gudwlrq dv=
VS @ oe^sEEB360? > +614;,
zlwk ) +qp, ehlqj wkh yroxph wr vxuidfh duhd udwlr ri wkh vrolg judlq ri k|gudwhv
frqwdlqhg lq wkh uhjlrq gu orfdwhg dw d glvwdqfh u iurp wkh fhqwuh ri wkh sduwlfoh
dqg ue^ ghqhg e| Ht1 61;1 Wkh ixqfwlrq i + 6 , +p , kdv dv yduldeoh wkh foxvwhu
wklfnqhvv dw wkh lqvwdqfh ri k|gudwlrq/ 6 1 Lw fdq eh uhsuhvhqwhg e| d wklug0rughu
sro|qrpldo zkrvh frhflhqwv duh ghwhuplqhg e| dsso|lqj pdvv frqvhuydwlrq ri
wkh k|gudwhv iruphg xs wr d fhuwdlq ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq/ l1h1 wkh wrwdo pdvv ri
k|gudwhv vkrxog eh htxdo wr wkh vxp ri wkh pdvvhv ri wkh k|gudwhv uhvlglqj lq
wkh lqqhu dqg rxwhu surgxfwv ^:4`1 Wkhvh frhflhqwv dovr uhhfw wkdw lqlwldoo| wkh
foxvwhu h{sdqgv iuhho| zkloh/ zkhq lw kdv frpsohwho| oohg xs wkh vxuurxqglqj
dydlodeoh vsdfh/ fkdqjhv lq exon srurvlw| rffxu vxfk dv wr dffrpprgdwh wkh qhz
jho ehlqj iruphg1
617 Prlvwxuh wudqvsruw prgho 94
Iurp lqirupdwlrq rq wkh vshflf vxuidfh duhd/ wkh srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq fdq
eh ghulyhg e| dvvxplqj d glvwulexwlrq uhsuhvhqwhg e|=
@ 4 h{s +Eu, > g @ Eu h{s+Eu,g oq u> +614<,
lq zklfk lv wkh iudfwlrq sruh yroxph ri wkh srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq ri sruhv zlwk
udglxv ohvv wkdq u1 Wkh sdudphwhu E +p3, lv wkh rqo| iuhh sdudphwhu wkdw gh0
vfulehv wkh glvwulexwlrq1 Wkh shdn ri wkh srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq/ li sorwwhg rq d
orjdulwkplf vfdoh lv dw oq u @ 1
Iru d v|vwhp ri f|olqgulf sruhv/ zlwk wrwdo srurvlw| %/ wkh glvwulexwlrq sdudp0
hwhu E fdq eh uhodwhg wr wkh vxuidfh duhd shu xqlw yroxph/ V / yld=
U U
V @ 5% _v
o
@ 5% E h{s +Eu, g+oq u,= +6153,
Xqghu wklv dvvxpswlrq +f|olqgulfdo sruhv,/ wkh glvwulexwlrq sdudphwhuv E} dqg
ES iru wkh jho dqg fdsloodu| srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq fdq eh fdofxodwhg xvlqj Ht1 6153
dqg wkh vshflf vxuidfhv V} dqg VS iurp Ht1 614: dqg Ht1 614;/ uhvshfwlyho| ^:4`1
Wkxv/ wkh qrupdolvhg srurvlw| glvwulexwlrqv iru wkh fdsloodu| dqg jho srurvlwlhv
duh uhsuhvhqwhg e|=
%S +u, @ %S ^4 h{s +ES u,` > +6154,
%} +u, @ %} ^4 h{s +E} u,` = +6155,
Wkh wrwdo srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq ri wkh fhphqw sdvwh/ % +u, lv rewdlqhg dv wkh vxp0
pdwlrq ri wkh lqwhuod|hu srurvlw| %, / wkh fdsloodu| %S +u, dqg jho %} +u, srurvlw|
glvwulexwlrqv=
% +u, @ %, . %} ^4 h{s +E} u,` . %S ^4 h{s +ES u,` = +6156,
Wkh idfw wkdw wkh lqwhuod|hu srurvlw| lv vlpso| oxpshg zlwk wkh fdsloodu| dqg
jho srurvlw| glvwulexwlrqv lv prwlydwhg e| wkh idfw wkdw lwv h{dfw fkdudfwhulvwlfv duh
qrw zhoo xqghuvwrrg1 Iurp wkh srlqw ri ylhz ri prlvwxuh wudqvsruw/ wkh lqwhuod|hu
srurvlw| kdv qr frqwulexwlrq vlqfh wkh zdwhu lv {hg1
srudwhg1
%p> +6157,
zkhuh wkh surgxfw %p uhsuhvhqwv wkh zdwhu0oohg srurvlw| dqg lv wkh ghqvlw|
ri oltxlg zdwhu1
Li rqh ghqrwhv e| M +nj p32 v3 , wkh x{ ri prlvwxuh lq oltxlg dqg ydsrxu
irup/ wkh prglhg frqwlqxlw| htxdwlrq +Ht1 719, |lhogv=
Yw
Y|
. gly M @ 3= +6158,
Mc @ G Y4
Y%
> +6159,
zlwk G +p2 v3 , wkh exon ydsrxu glxvlylw| dqg +nj p3 , wkh ydsrxu ghqvlw|1
Oltxlg zdwhu lv gulyhq e| wkh exon oltxlg suhvvxuh S, +Sd, dqg iroorzv Gduf|*v
odz=
n Y,
Mc, @ N, Y , @ > +615:,
Y%
Y%
zlwk N, +v, wkh prlvwxuh0ghshqghqw shuphdelolw| frhflhqw1 Wkh oltxlg frqgxf0
wlylw| N, lv sursruwlrqdo wr wkh udwlr ri wkh lqwulqvlf shuphdelolw| ri wkh srurxv
97 Frqfuhwh prghoolqj
Wkh udwh ri prlvwxuh orvv gxh wr fkhplfdo {dwlrq ri zdwhu kdv wr eh dgghg
dv d vlqn whup lq Ht1 615;=
T+_o @ _Ek)`
_|
R
= +6164,
Wklv whup lv ghshqghqw rq wkh ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq/ / zklfk lq wxuq ghshqgv
rq wkh dydlodeoh fdsloodu| frqghqvhg zdwhu +Ht1 618,1 Wkh prlvwxuh orvv gxh wr
k|gudwlrq lv ghshqghqw rq wkh srzghu frpsrvlwlrq dqg lv rewdlqhg iurp wkh pxowl0
frpsrqhqw khdw0ri0k|gudwlrq prgho edvhg rq wkh uhdfwlrq sdwwhuqv ri srzghu
frpsrqhqwv1 Lq wkh prgho/ erwk dqg * duh xsgdwhg zlwk wkh rqjrlqj k|gudwlrq/
dffruglqj wr wkh vdph pxowl0frpsrqhqw khdw0ri0k|gudwlrq prgho ghvfulehg lq
Vhfwlrq 6151
Frpelqlqj Ht1 615; zlwk Ht1 615</ Ht1 6163 dqg Ht1 6164 dqg dffrxqwlqj iru
d pxowl0frpsrqhqw glylvlrq ri srurvlw| dqg ri zdwhu lq frqfuhwh/ rqh rewdlqv d
jhqhudo htxdwlrq ghvfulelqj wkh prlvwxuh wudqvsruw lq frqfuhwh=
S
% Y 6
Y
,
Y ,
Y|
gly ^+N . N ,, judg S, `
S
. p Y 0
Y
,
Y Ek)`R
Y|
@ 3= +6165,
Wkh ghyhorsphqw ri wkh sruh vwuxfwxuh +wklug whup, lv uhodwhg wr wkh frqfhsw ri
sduwlfoh h{sdqvlrq wkdw judgxdoo| wdnhv sodfh/ frqfxuuhqw zlwk wkh hyroxwlrq ri
k|gudwlrq1 Wkh frqgxfwlylw| ri oltxlg dqg ydsrxu prlvwxuh +vhfrqg whup, dqg
wkh prlvwxuh fdsdflw| ri wkh sruhv +uvw whup, zloo eh hydoxdwhg qh{w/ edvhg rq
wkh sruh0vwuxfwxuh prgho ghvfulehg lq Vhfwlrq 6161 Wkh lqgh{ l lqglfdwhv wkh
vxppdwlrq ryhu wkh fdsloodu|/ jho dqg lqwhuod|hu frpsrqhqwv1
Wkh prlvwxuh vdwxudwlrq/ p / dqg wkh frqgxfwlylw| ri oltxlg dqg ydsrxu prlv0
wxuh/ N, dqg N zloo eh vhsdudwho| ghvfulehg lq vhfwlrq 61715 dqg vhfwlrq 617161
dssolhv pdlqo| wr wkh fdsloodu| dqg jho sruhv1 Lq wkh iroorzlqj glvfxvvlrq lw lv dv0
vxphg wkdw doo sruhv duh f|olqgulfdo lq vkdsh1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/ iru d qrq0lqwhuod|hu
qrupdolvhg srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq/ %S} / jlyhq e|=
%S} @ 0S d3i 3
TE S oon0 } d
E0S n 0 }
3i TE3 } o o
+6166,
Iluvw wkhuh zloo eh d fdwhjru| ri ixoo| vdwxudwhg sruhv zkhuh wkh oltxlg prlvwxuh
lv lq wkhuprg|qdplf htxloleulxp zlwk wkh ydsrxu skdvh/ dq| vpdoo fkdqjh lq
wkh suhvvxuh ru uhodwlyh kxplglw| ri wkh jdv skdvh zloo ohdg wr d fkdqjh lq wkh
oltxlg suhvvxuh skdvh1 Wkh ydoxh ri wkh udglxv ur +p, xs wr zklfk doo sruhv duh
frpsohwho| oohg zlwk zdwhu/ dw d jlyhq dpelhqw UK / lv rewdlqhg dv=
ur @ 42j >
-A *? -M
+6169,
zlwk P +nj pro3, ehlqj wkh prohfxodu pdvv ri oltxlg/ U wkh xqlyhuvdo jdv frq0
vwdqw/ W +N, wkh devroxwh whpshudwxuh dqg +Q p3 , wkh vxuidfh whqvlrq ri wkh
oltxlg1 Wklv uhodwlrq lv rewdlqhg e| frpelqlqj Nhoylq*v htxdwlrq/
S, @ 4-A oq UK> +616:,
617 Prlvwxuh wudqvsruw prgho 9:
zklfk uhodwhv wkh oltxlg suhvvxuh S, wr wkh uhodwlyh kxplglw| ri wkh dwprvskhuh/
UK dqg Odsodfh*v htxdwlrq=
S, @ 2oj = +616;,
Ht1 616; olqnv wkh fxuydwxuh ri dq lqwhuidfh/ u>wr wkh suhvvxuh glhuhqfh ryhu lw1
Lq erwk htxdwlrqv wkh suhvvxuh glhuhqfh lv frpsxwhg uhodwlyho| wr wkh ydsrxu
suhvvxuh wkdw lv dvvxphg vpdoo dqg frqvwdqw dqg/ iru wklv uhdvrq/ vhw wr }hur1
Lqwhjudwlqj wkh sruh yroxph o|lqj ehorz wkh sruh udglxv ur / wkh zdwhu frqwhqw
lq d srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq jlyhq e| Ht1 614< lv=
U
or
pr @ g @ 4 h{s +Eur , = +616<,
f
Lq dgglwlrq wr wkh ixoo| vdwxudwhg sruhv dovr sduwo| vdwxudwhg sruhv zlwk zdwhu lq
dq dgvruehg skdvh duh suhvhqw1 Dgvruswlrq lv fdxvhg e| wkh Ydq ghu Zddov irufhv
wkdw dfw ehwzhhq wkh kljk0hqhujhwlf prohfxohv dw wkh vxuidfh ri wkh vrolg pdwul{
dqg wkh dgvruedwh prohfxohv1 D od|hu ri qlwh wklfnqhvv ri dgvruehg prohfxohv lv
iruphg dw wkh vrolg vxuidfh1 Dsso|lqj wkh Eudxqhu0Hpphw0Whoohu +EHW, wkhru|
prglhg e| Kloohueruj ^:4`/ wkh wklfnqhvv ri wkh dgvruehg od|hu ri zdwhu/ w@ +p,/
iru vlolfdwh pdwhuldov fdq eh frpsxwhg dv=
w@ @ fD2D u 3H
f -M > +6173,
3 -M
-M 6
3-M nD-M
-M6
zkhuh UK6 @ h{s 432-A j
o
dv h{suhvvhg e| Ht1 616: lv wkh kxplglw| uhtxluhg
wr ixoo| vdwxudwh wkh sruh dqg u @ u w@ wkh
fruuhfwhg lqwhuidfh udglxv1 Iru rqh
sruh/ wkh ghjuhh ri vdwxudwlrq lv po @ 4 o3o|@ 2 > zkloh wkh wrwdo vdwxudwlrq lq
d glvwulexwlrq jlyhq e| Ht1 614< lv +lqfoxglqj ixoo| dqg sduwldoo| vdwxudwhg sruhv,=
]oS ]" ]"
p@_r @ g . po g @ pS . uEpo h{s+Eu,g oq u= +6174,
f oS oS
Wkh sruh udglxv dw zklfk wkh htxloleudwhg lqwhuidfh ri oltxlg dqg ydsrxu lv
fuhdwhg/ uS / lv sursruwlrqdo wr ur +Ht1 6169,/ wkh sursruwlrqdolw| frqvwdqw +F @
5=48, ehlqj ghwhuplqhg iurp qxphurxv frpsdulvrqv ri wkh dqdo|wlfdo suhglfwlrqv
ri wkh htxloleudwhg lqwhuidfh udgll dv rewdlqhg iurp wkh prglhg EHW wkhru| dqg
9; Frqfuhwh prghoolqj
ur dv jlyhq e| Nhoylq*v htxdwlrq ^:4`1 Lw vkrxog eh srlqwhg rxw wkdw wkh udglxv
uS lv odujhu wkdq wkh sruh udglxv ur 1 Lq wklv zd| rqh dffrxqwv iru sruhv vdwxudwhg
gxh wr frqghqvdwlrq dqg dgvruswlrq1 Dv Ht1 6174 lv lpsolflw lq wkh yduldeoh w@ / wkh
lqwhjudo lq Ht1 6174 lv hydoxdwhg iurp d prglhg h{suhvvlrq sursrvhg e| Pdhndzd
hw do1 ^:4`1
Qrw rqo| iru frqfuhwh exw dovr iru rwkhu srurxv pdwhuldov lw zdv revhuyhg wkdw
wkh dprxqw ri zdwhu lq frqfuhwh ghshqgv rq wkh klvwru| ri gu|lqj dqg zhwwlqj/
h{klelwlqj d k|vwhuhvlv w|sh ri ehkdylrxu ^:4`1 Wkh prvw suredeoh fdxvh iru wklv
ehkdylrxu lv wkh lqn0erwwoh hhfw/ l1h1 pdq| ri wkh odujhu sruhv kdyh lqwhufrq0
qhfwlrqv rqo| wkurxjk sruhv pxfk vpdoohu lq udglxv vxfk dv prlvwxuh fdq rqo|
eh h{fkdqjhg dv orqj dv wkh frqqhfwlqj sruhv duh qrw vdwxudwhg1 Wkxv/ iru dq
duelwudu| gu|lqj0zhwwlqj klvwru| wkh yroxph iudfwlrq ri wudsshg zdwhu p?& dggv
xs wr wkh yroxph iudfwlrq ri zdwhu lq vdwxudwhg sruhv/ pS / wr rewdlq wkh wrwdo
vdwxudwlrq ri srurxv phgld1 Wkh wudsshg0zdwhu frqwulexwlrq fdq eh fdofxodwhg
iru wkh iroorzlqj sdwwhuqv=
d sulpdu| +ylujlq, zhwwlqj sdwk vwduwlqj iurp d frpsohwho| gulhg vwdwh1
d sulpdu| +ylujlq, gu|lqj sdwk vwduwlqj iurp d frpsohwho| zhw vwdwh1
vfdqqlqj zhwwlqj fxuyhv wkdw kdyh dv vwduwlqj srlqw d frpsohwho| gulhg vwdwh1
Wkh dgvruswlrq sdwk zloo eh vlplodu wr wkh ylujlq rqh exw zkhq wkh uhodwlyh
kxplglw| ghfuhdvhv/ wkh ghvruswlrq fxuyh zloo qrw uhwxuq wr wkh ylujlq fxuyh1
vfdqqlqj gu|lqj fxuyhv wkdw kdyh dv vwduwlqj srlqw d frpsohwho| zhw vwdwh1
Gxulqj wkh uvw gu|lqj djdlq d fxuyh vlplodu wr wkh ylujlq rqh zloo eh iroorzhg1
Krzhyhu/ zlwk lqfuhdvlqj dpelhqw uhodwlyh kxplglw| d judgxdo uhoolqj ri sruhv
zlwk prlvwxuh zloo wdnh sodfh vlwxdwlqj wkh dgvruswlrq orrs vrphzkhuh lqvlgh wkh
k|vwhuhvlv suroh1
D k|vwhuhvlv prgho lv ehvw vxlwhg wr ghvfuleh vlwxdwlrqv fruuhvsrqglqj wr
kljk uhodwlyh kxplglwlhv1 Dw orz uhodwlyh kxplglwlhv glhuhqfhv rffxu gxh wr wkh
vwurqjo| erxqg lqwhuod|hu zdwhu rq wkh FVK vxuidfh wkdw fdq qrw eh ghvfulehg
e| sk|vlfdo wkhuprg|qdplf prghov ri frqghqvdwlrq dqg dgvruswlrq1
Oltxlg frqgxfwlylw|
Dv vkrzq lq Ht1 615:/ wkh oltxlg frqgxfwlylw| N, lv jlyhq e| wkh udwlr ehwzhhq
wkh lqwulqvlf shuphdelolw| ri wkh srurxv phglxp/ n +p2 ,/ ghshqghqw rqo| rq wkh
fkdudfwhulvwlf surshuwlhv ri wkh srurxv phgld/ dqg wkh ylvfrvlw| +Sd v, ri wkh
xlg1 Iru qrq0lghdo frqglwlrqv/ wkh ylvfrvlw| lv qrw d frqvwdqw + , exw lv
dhfwhg e| ydulrxv lqwhudfwlrqv wkdw pd| ohdg wr dgglwlrqdo dfwlydwlrq ri rz
fkdudfwhulvhg e| d Jleev iuhh hqhuj| Je +M npro3 ,=
C
@ h{s -A
e = +6175,
Iru zdwhu lq frqfuhwh wkh lqwhudfwlrqv zlwk wkh sruhv dqg wkh zkroh plfurvwuxfwxuh
dffrxqw iru d qrq0lghdo vwdwh ^:4`1
Dq h{suhvvlrq iru wkh lqwulqvlf shuphdelolw| n lv rewdlqhg e| frpsdulqj Gduf|*v
odz ri vdwxudwhg rz zlwk wkh h{suhvvlrq iru vwhdg|0vwdwh odplqdu rz wkurxjk
d srurxv phglxp lghdolvhg dv frqvlvwlqj ri d exqgoh ri vwudljkw fdsloodu| wxehv/
l1h1=
# 2 $
$
"U
M @
H> ue^ gD _
_%
> +6176,
f
zlwk ue^ wkh htxlydohqw sruh udglxv ri wkh sruh v|vwhp/ l1h1 wkh jhrphwulf phdq
ri dq| wzr ri wkh sruh udgll lq wkh sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq dqg gD wkh qrupdolvhg
duhd ri doo wkh sruhv zlwk udglxv ue^ lq d furvv0vhfwlrq ri wkh phglxp qrupdo wr
wkh rz jhqhudwhg e| wkh dssolhg suhvvxuh judglhqw _ _%
= Lw lv dvvxphg wkdw wkh
sruhv lq wkh furvv0vhfwlrq
Z 2 duh lqghshqghqwo| duudqjhg1 Wkhuhiruh/ d wruwxrvlw|
idfwru @ _ @ 2 fruuhvsrqglqj wr d xqlirupo| udqgrp srurxv phglxp
0|J|@, _T
lv wdnhq lqwr dffrxqw1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/ rqh rewdlqv iru wkh lqwulqvlf shuphdelolw|=
"U
2 "U 2
n@
H ue^ gD 02
|J|@,
Df ue^ gY = +6177,
f f
:3 Frqfuhwh prghoolqj
Wkh rqo| sdudphwhu lq wklv h{suhvvlrq lv wkh srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq ri wkh srurxv
phglxp1 Zlwk dqg n ghwhuplqhg iurp Ht1 6175 dqg Ht1 6177 dqg iru d srurv0
lw| glvwulexwlrq jlyhq e| Ht1 6166/ wkh oltxlg frqgxfwlylw| N, iru vdwxudwhg dqg
xqvdwxudwhg sruhv dw d jlyhq UK/ lv frpsxwhg dv=
2
N, @ 4Df0|J|@, 0S i TE 3 3
S oS E S oS 3n . 0} i TE 3 } oS E 3 } oS 3n 2 >
> 0S} S 0 S} }
zkhuh wkh xsshu olplw ri wkh lqwhjudo lq Ht1 6177 zdv uS @ 5=48 ur / ur ehlqj
rewdlqhg iurp Ht1 61691
Ydsrxu frqgxfwlylw|
zkhuh iru zdwhu prohfxohv wkh phdq iuhh sdwk kdv d ydoxh @314 p dqg ue
htxdov wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh dfwxdo sruh udglxv/ u> dqg wkh wklfnqhvv ri wkh
dgvruehg zdwhu od|hu/ w@ / dv fdofxodwhg e| Ht1 61731 E| fdofxodwlqj wkh lqwhjudo iru
wkh frpelqhg fdsloodu|0jho sruh glvwulexwlrq +Ht1 6166,/ wkh ydsrxu frqgxfwlylw|/
N / ehfrphv=
N @ 4 0|J|@, (6
3
6|J|@,
-M
> +6179,
n
3
2Eo6 |6
4 -A
zkhuh u6 lv wkh chhfwlyh* dyhudjh vl}h ri wkh xqvdwxudwhg sruhv +fruuhfwhg iru
wkh dgvruehg zdwhu od|hu, h{suhvvhg dv d jhrphwulf phdq wr zklfk dq dgvruehg
zdwhu od|hu ri wklfnqhvv w6 fruuhvsrqgv1
Lq vxppdu|/ doo sdudphwhuv lq Ht1 6165 ehlqj hydoxdwhg/ d g|qdplfdo frxsolqj
ri wkh surfhvv ri k|gudwlrq/ plfurvwuxfwxuh irupdwlrq dqg prlvwxuh wudqvsruw lv
dfklhyhg/ surylglqj d wrro qrw rqo| wr ghwhuplqh dw hdfk wlph vwhs wkh sruh0oltxlg
suhvvxuh exw dovr vhyhudo rwkhu lqwhuqdo yduldeohv1
618 Frqfuhwh dv d frpsrvlwh srurxv phglxp :4