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D glxvlyh wudqvsruw htxdwlrq lq whupv ri udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq ri wkh dlu0oohg
sruh vsdfh ri dq lvrwurslf srurxv pdwhuldo zloo eh ghulyhg lq fkdswhu 71 Wklv
htxdwlrq dffrxqwv iru wkh pdwhuldo surshuwlhv wkurxjk wkh glxvlrq frhflhqw
+Ht1 715<, dqg wkh sduwlwlrq fruuhfwhg srurvlw| +Ht1 715;,1 Lq wkh fdvh ri frqfuhwh/
vhyhudo pdwhuldo surshuwlhv +srurvlw|/ prlvwxuh frqwhqw, dqg wudqvsruw frhflhqwv
+glxvlrq frhflhqw, duh qrw frqvwdqw lq wlph ehfdxvh wkh udqgrp dqg frpsoh{
plfurvwuxfwxuh lv g|qdplfdoo| uhodwhg wr wkh surfhvv ri k|gudwlrq dqg prlvwxuh
wudqvsruw +vhh fkdswhu 5,1 Lq frqfuhwh/ lq dgglwlrq wr d eurdg glvwulexwlrq ri
djjuhjdwh sduwlfoh vl}hv wkh k|gudwhg fhphqw pdwul{ jlyhv ulvh wr d eurdg glvwul0
exwlrq ri sruh0vl}hv1 Wkh udwh dqg hyroxwlrq ri k|gudwlrq ghwhuplqhv wkh dprxqw/
glvwulexwlrq dqg frqqhfwlylw| ri fhuwdlq w|shv ri sruhv1 K|gudwlrq lwvhoi ghshqgv
rq wkh wrwdo txdqwlw| ri zdwhu vwruhg lq wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh1 Lqlwldoo| wkh dprxqw
ri zdwhu suhvhqw lq wkh pl{ lv uhodwhg wr wkh zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr/ gxulqj fxulqj

86
87 Frqfuhwh prghoolqj

dqg vwrulqj wkh hqylurqphqwdo frqglwlrqv zloo judgxdoo| grplqdwh wkh prlvwxuh
frqwhqw ri wkh k|gudwhg plfurvwuxfwxuh1
Wklv fkdswhu frqwdlqv irxu vhfwlrqv1 Lq vhfwlrq 615 d eulhi ghvfulswlrq ri wkh
khdw0ri0k|gudwlrq prgho iru eohqghg fhphqwv zloo eh jlyhq1 Zlwk wklv prgho/ wkh
frqfuhwh khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwh xvhg dv wkh vrxufh whup lq wkh htxdwlrq ri wkhu0
prg|qdplf hqhuj| frqvhuydwlrq lv frpsxwhg1 E| vroylqj wklv htxdwlrq iru wkh
vsdfh dqg wlph grpdlq ri lqwhuhvw/ wkh whpshudwxuh glvwulexwlrq/ ghjuhh ri k|0
gudwlrq ri frqfuhwh dqg wkh dprxqw ri fkhplfdoo| frpelqhg zdwhu duh jhqhudwhg1
Wkhvh txdqwlwlhv vhuyh dv lqsxw wr frpsxwh wkh plfur0dvshfwv ri sruh vwuxfwxuh
ghyhorsphqw ri wkh k|gudwhg fhphqw sdvwh +vhfwlrq 616,1 Wkh g|qdplfdo frx0
solqj ri wkh k|gudwlrq/ ghyhorsphqw ri plfurvwuxfwxuh dqg prlvwxuh wudqvsruw lv
dfklhyhg e| lqwhjudwlqj doo wkhvh frqwulexwlrqv lq d pdvv frqvhuydwlrq htxdwlrq
zulwwhq lq whupv ri sruh oltxlg0zdwhu suhvvxuh1 Wkh vlqn whup ri wklv frqvhuyd0
wlrq htxdwlrq uhhfwv fkdqjhv lq wkh exon srurvlw| dqg lwv glvwulexwlrq/ wkh udwh
ri prlvwxuh orvv gxh wr k|gudwlrq dv zhoo dv wkh fkdqjh lq wkh ghjuhh ri vdwxudwlrq
ri ydulrxv w|shv ri sruhv +vhfwlrq 617,1 Wklv dqdo|vlv zloo eh fduulhg rxw xqghu
wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw frqfuhwh lv dq lvrwurslf/ krprjhqhrxv dqg xqlirup srurxv
pdwhuldo1 Wkh frqglwlrqv xqghu zklfk wklv dvvxpswlrq lv ydolg zloo eh glvfxvvhg
+vhfwlrq 618,1

2 *|UL4TL?i?| i@|)_h@|L?
K|gudwlrq ri fhphqw +vhh vhfwlrq 517, lv dq h{rwkhuplf uhdfwlrq lq zklfk wkh ole0
hudwhg wkhupdo hqhuj| lv wudqvihuuhg lq frqfuhwh ghshqglqj rq wkh hqylurqphqwdo
frqglwlrqv wr wkh vxuidfhv ri wkh vwuxfwxuh1 Wkh surfhvv ri khdw frqgxfwlrq dqg
wkh whpshudwxuh ghshqghqfh ri fhphqw k|gudwlrq lqwurgxfh glvwxuedqfhv lq wkh
whpshudwxuh glvwulexwlrq dqg ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq1 Wkh khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwh gli0
ihuv dw hdfk orfdwlrq ri wkh vwuxfwxuh dqg frqvhtxhqwo| lqxhqfhv wkh dprxqw ri
oltxlg zdwhu lq wkh ghyhorslqj plfurvwuxfwxuh1 Wkxv/ dq dffxudwh ghvfulswlrq ri
wkh surfhvv ri fhphqw k|gudwlrq kdv wr xsgdwh dw hdfk vwhs wkh whpshudwxuh dovr
wdnlqj lqwr dffrxqw lwv klvwru|1 Dgglwlrqdoo|/ vroxwlrqv iru lqwhuqdo yduldeohv vxfk
dv wkh ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq/ fkhplfdoo| erxqg zdwhu/ dyhudjh sruh0zdwhu frqwhqw/
fdq eh rewdlqhg1
E| dsso|lqj wkh wkhuprg|qdplf hqhuj|0frqvhuydwlrq odz/ rqh rewdlqv wkh
iroorzlqj htxdwlrq=
fr YA
Y|
@ gly +uW , . K> +614,
615 Pxowlfrpsrqhqw khdw0k|gudwlrq 88

zkhuh K +M p3 v3 , lv wkh frqfuhwh khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwh dw whpshudwxuh W +N,/


fr +M p3 N3, wkh frqfuhwh khdw fdsdflw| shu xqlw yroxph dqg  +M N3 p3 v3 ,
wkh phdq wkhupdo frqgxfwlylw| ri frqfuhwh1 Lq wkh qxphulfdo lpsohphqwdwlrq/ fr
dqg  duh frpsxwhg dv wkh zhljkwhg vxp ri wkh khdw fdsdflwlhv dqg wkhupdo
frqgxfwlylwlhv fruuhvsrqglqj wr wkh frqfuhwh frpsrqhqwv/ uhvshfwlyho|1
Wkh rqo| vrxufh ri khdw jhqhudwlrq dqg wkxv/ ri whpshudwxuh ulvh lq frqfuhwh lv
wkh k|gudwlrq surfhvv1 Fhphqw +vhfwlrq 515,/ iurp wkh srlqw ri ylhz ri lwv fkhplfdo
frpsrvlwlrq/ lv d sro|plqhudo pdwhuldo1 Wr dffrxqw iru wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq
sxuh fhphqw dqg fhphqw zlwk sr}}rodq dgglwlyhv +jjev/ | dvk, wkh whup srzghu
pdwhuldo ru eohqghg fhphqw lv xvhg iru wkh odwwhu fdvh1 Wr frpsxwh wkh frqfuhwh
khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwh d pxowl0frpsrqhqw prgho iru wkh khdw ri k|gudwlrq ri fhphqw
lv sursrvhg1 Vx}xnl hw do1 ^46;` vkrz wkdw lw lv d jrrg dssur{lpdwlrq wr frqvlghu
wkh khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwh ri fhphqw dv wkh vxp ri wkh khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwhv ri
hdfk frpsrqhqw dffruglqj wr wkhlu sursruwlrqv1 Wkxv/ wkh khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwh
ri frqfuhwh/ K / fdq eh zulwwhq dv=
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K @ SS KS zlwk KS @ s K > +615,
zkhuh SS +nj p3 , lv wkh srzghu frqwhqw shu xqlw yroxph ri frqfuhwh/ KS +M nj3 v3 ,
lv wkh vshflf khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwh ri srzghu/ K +M nj3 v3 , lv wkh vshflf khdw0
ri0k|gudwlrq udwh ri wkh frpsrvlqj folqnhu dqg eohqglqj pdwhuldov/ s lv wkh zhljk0
lqj idfwru fruuhvsrqglqj wr wkhlu pdvv udwlr lq wkh srzghu dqg l lv xvhg dv dq
lqgh{ iru wkh srzghu frpsrqhqwv1
Wkh khdw0jhqhudwlrq prgho kdv wr eh dssolfdeoh wr srzghu k|gudwlrq wdnlqj
sodfh lq frqfuhwh xqghu duelwudu| whpshudwxuh frqglwlrqv1 Wkh whpshudwxuh gh0
shqghqfh ri srzghu k|gudwlrq lv ghvfulehg e| d prglhg Duukhqlxv* odz ^:4`1
Wkh h{rwkhuplf ihdwxuh ri wkh k|gudwlrq surfhvv lv vshflhg e| wzr pdwhuldo
ixqfwlrqv/ wkh wkhupdo dfwlylw| dqg wkh lqwulqvlf khdw udwh1 Wkxv/ iru hdfk srzghu
frpsrqhqw/ K fdq eh zulwwhq dv=
k  l ]|
K @  K +Wf > T , h{s  . E' 
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A

Af
zlwk T @ K gw= +616,
f

Wkh frhflhqw  lv d glphqvlrqohvv sdudphwhu dffrxqwlqj iru lqwhudfwlrqv dprqj


fhphqw folqnhuv dqg sr}}rodqv>  vwdqgv iru wkh uhgxfwlrq ri suredelolw| ri frq0
wdfw ehwzhhq xqk|gudwhg frpsrxqgv dqg oltxlg zdwhu lq wkh fdsloodu| sruhv>
H +T , +M pro3 , lv wkh dfwlydwlrq hqhuj| ri wkh l| frpsrqhqw uhdfwlrq> W +N,
lv wkh devroxwh whpshudwxuh ri frqfuhwh dqg U lv wkh xqlyhuvdo jdv frqvwdqw
89 Frqfuhwh prghoolqj

+@;164 M pro3 N3 ,1 Wkh uhihuhqfh khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwh ri wkh l| frpsrqhqw


dw Wf +5<6 N, dqg iru d plqhudo frpsrvlwlrq fruuhvsrqglqj wr wkdw ri ruglqdu|
Sruwodqg fhphqw/ ghqrwhg e| K +Wf > T , +M nj3 v3,/ lv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh whpshu0
dwxuh Wf dqg ri wkh dffxpxodwhg khdw/ T +M nj3, vshflf iru hdfk skdvh1 Wkxv/
Duukhqlxv* odz |lhogv=
 
K +Wf > T , @ K" +T , h{s  .  E'  
- Af
> +617,

zkhuh K" +T , +M nj3 v3 , lv wkh xowlpdwh khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwh ri srzghu dw


lqqlwh whpshudwxuh +W$ 4, zklfk lv dq lpdjlqdu| vlwxdwlrq1
Erwk wkh dfwlydwlrq hqhuj|/ H +T , dqg wkh lqwulqvlf uhihuhqfh khdw udwh/
K +Wf > T ,> duh fdofxodwhg iurp dgldedwlf whpshudwxuh ulvh whvwv/ lq sudfwlfh riwhq
frqgxfwhg wr lqyhvwljdwh wkh fdorulf surshuwlhv ri frqfuhwh ^46;`1 Iurp wkh dgl0
dedwlf whpshudwxuh ulvh fxuyhv +glvsod|lqj whpshudwxuh yhuvxv wlph iru glhuhqw
lqlwldo whpshudwxuhv, wkh dffxpxodwhg khdw shu xqlw pdvv ri fhphqw/ T +M nj3 ,
fdq eh ghwhuplqhg1 Dffruglqj wr Ht1 616 wkh judglhqw ri wkhvh fxuyhv/ _' _|
 / lv

htxdo wr wkh khdw surgxfwlrq udwh ri k|gudwlrq dw whpshudwxuh W 1 Xvlqj Ht1 617
dqg wkh fruuhvsrqglqj Duukhqlxv* sorw +orjdulwkp ri K yhuvxv wkh lqyhuvh ri W ,
wkh judglhqw htxdov . E-'  > iurp zklfk wkh wkhupdo dfwlylw| +dfwlydwlrq hqhuj|,
fdq eh fdofxodwhg1 Wkh ydoxh ri K fdofxodwhg e| h{wudsrodwlrq wr }hur jlyhv
K" +T ,1
Wkh frqwdfw suredelolw|/  / ehwzhhq xqk|gudwhg srzghu sduwlfohv dqg oltxlg
fdsloodu| zdwhu ghshqgv rq wkh suredelolw| ri prohfxodu froolvlrqv wkxv/ lv lqx0
hqfhg e| wkh dprxqw ri oltxlg zdwhu lq wkh ghyhorslqj plfurvwuxfwxuh +h{suhvvhg
shu xqlw pdvv ri fhphqw,/ $,^ 1 Wklv lv h{suhvvhg dv wkh udwlr ri pdvv ri oltxlg
zdwhu dqg lqlwldo srzghu pdvv/ l1h1=
$,^ @ 4 "SR 6SR T 6
S
> +618,
zlwk  +nj p3 , wkh ghqvlw| ri oltxlg zdwhu dw urrp whpshudwxuh +<<:18 nj p3 ,/
SR wkh fdsloodu| srurvlw|/ l1h1 wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh yroxph ri fdsloodu| sruhv dqg
wkh yroxph ri fhphqw sdvwh pSR wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh yroxph ri oltxlg zdwhu
frqwdlqhg lq fdsloodulhv dqg wkh wrwdo yroxph ri fdsloodulhv dqg Y6 wkh yroxph
iudfwlrq ri fhphqw sdvwh lq frqfuhwh1
Uhgxfwlrq ri wkh frqwdfw suredelolw| dv k|gudwlrq surjuhvvhv rffxuv qrw rqo|
ehfdxvh ri d ghfuhdvhg ydoxh ri $,^ exw dovr e| dq lqfuhdvlqj wklfnqhvv ri wkh
k|gudwhg fhphqw sduwlfohv1 Dvvxplqj d gluhfw sursruwlrqdolw| ehwzhhq wkh yroxph
ri wkh k|gudwhg sduwlfoh dw d fhuwdlq lqvwdqw2ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq/  / dqg wkh
616 Plfurvwuxfwxudo ghyhorsphqw prgho 8:

fruuhvsrqglqj dffxpxodwhg khdw/ T dqg wdnlqj dv uhihuhqfh wkh vlwxdwlrq dw


lqqlwh wlph/ zkhq ixoo k|gudwlrq lv dfklhyhg/ wkh glphqvlrqohvv wklfnqhvv ri wkh
foxvwhu/   / fdq eh zulwwhq dv=
 *
  @ 4  4  ''c" @ 4  +4   ,* > +619,

zkhuh wkh udwlr ''c" ghqhv wkh ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq ri hdfk frpsrqhqw1 Iurp wklv
uhodwlrq rqh fdq vhh wkdw/ dv wkh glphqvlrq ri wkh xqk|gudwhg sduwlfoh ehfrphv
vpdoohu/ zlwk wlph/ d odujhu ghfuhdvh lq wkh gldphwhu ri wkh +vdph, sduwlfoh lv
qhhghg wr dfklhyh wkh vdph ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq1
Ilqdoo|/ wkh frqwdfw suredelolw|  lv h{suhvvhg lq dq hpslulfdo uhodwlrq zlwk
$,^ +Ht1 618, dqg   +Ht1 619,=
  2e 
 @ 4  h{s 8  / ,^
l
= +61:,

Li qr zdwhu lv dydlodeoh/ $,^ @ 3 dqg wkxv/ wkh frqwdfw suredelolw| ydqlvkhv1 Lq


wkh lqlwldo vwdjhv/ zkhq doprvw qr k|gudwlrq lv suhvhqw +  @ 3,/ wkh frqwdfw
suredelolw| uhdfkhv xqlw|1
Iru dq| ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq/ jlyhq wkh vwrlfklrphwulf htxdwlrqv ri k|gudwlrq
+Ht1 514 wr Ht1 517,/ wkh dprxqw ri fkhplfdoo| frpelqhg zdwhu h{suhvvhg shu xqlw
pdvv ri k|gudwhg srzghu pdwhuldo/ */ fdq eh frpsxwhg1 Wkxv/ li rqh ghqrwhv
e| ZR wkh pdvv ri srzghu pdwhuldov shu xqlw sdvwh yroxph/ wkh wrwdo dprxqw ri
zdwhu frqvxphg gxulqj k|gudwlrq shu xqlw sdvwh yroxph +ZR*, lv frpsxwhg dw
hyhu| vwhs lq wkh prgho1
E| xvlqj hqhuj| frqvhuydwlrq +Ht1 614, dqg d pxowl0frpsrqhqw khdw0ri0k|gudwlrq
prgho/ wkh wkhuprg|qdplf hqylurqphqw ri fhphqw srzghu lq frqfuhwh lv gh0
vfulehg1 Wklv lpsolhv wkdw dw hyhu| wlph vwhs dqg dw hdfk orfdwlrq lq wkh vwuxf0
wxuh/ qrw rqo| W exw dovr  / * dqg wkh uhpdlqlqj dprxqw ri fdsloodu| oltxlg
zdwhu dydlodeoh iru k|gudwlrq fdq eh ghulyhg1

 UhLt|hU|h@* _ii*LT4i?| 4L_i*


Wkh jhrphwulfdo fkdudfwhulvwlf sdudphwhuv iru d vlqjoh srzghu sduwlfoh dw dq duel0
wudu| vwdjh ri k|gudwlrq zlwk uhihuhqfh wr wkh lqlwldo frqjxudwlrq duh vfkhpdwl0
fdoo| vkrzq lq Ilj1 6 +frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq,1 Xvlqj wkhvh sdudphwhuv/ d vlpsoh dqg
vwudljkwiruzdug ghvfulswlrq ri wkh foxvwhu dqg lwv h{sdqvlrq duh rewdlqhg1 Wkh
suhvhqw prgho frqvlghuv wkdw wkh lqlwldo frqjxudwlrq ri wkh v|vwhp/ lpphgldwho|
8; Frqfuhwh prghoolqj

diwhu pl{lqj fhphqw zlwk zdwhu/ fruuhvsrqgv wr d glvshuvh fdvh dqg d odujh vsuhdg
lq wkh vl}h ri fhphqw sduwlfohv lv frqvlghuhg +vhh Ilj1 6 lq wkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq/
vwdjh 4,1 Lq wkh vwuxfwxudo ghyhorsphqw/ wkh odujhu sduwlfohv vhhp wr ghflgh wkh
pruskrorjlfdo ihdwxuhv ri d sdvwh1 Wkh vpdoohu vl}hg sduwlfohv hlwkhu dgkhuh wr
wkh vxuidfh ri wkh odujhu rqhv ru/ diwhu pl{lqj zlwk zdwhu/ frpsohwho| glvvroyh dqg
vkrz djjorphudwlrq dqg rffxodwlrq1
Lw lv srvvleoh wr ghvfuleh wkh uhdo +glvshuvh, frqjxudwlrq ri wkh v|vwhp e|
dq lghdol}hg +rughuhg, vwdwh +vhh Ilj1 6 lq wkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq/ vwdjh 5,
frqvlghulqj wkh iroorzlqj=
41 Hdfk sduwlfoh lq wkh glvshuvh v|vwhp kdv/ rq dyhudjh/ d iuhh fxelf yroxph/
o dydlodeoh iru h{sdqvlrq dqg ri htxlydohqw vskhulfdo udglxv/ ue^ =

 *
o @ v . 5uf > ue^ @ eZ o @ "o> +61;,
zkhuh v +p, lv wkh dyhudjh vsdflqj ehwzhhq rxwhu vxuidfhv ri srzghu sduwlfohv
dqg " lv fdoohg wkh vwhuhrorjlfdo idfwru +vhh Ilj1 6 lq wkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq/
vwdjh 6,1
51 Wkh dyhudjhg yroxphwulf frqfhqwudwlrq J ri d xqlirupo| glvshuvhg v|vwhp
ri vskhulfdo sduwlfohv ri udglxv uf dqg dyhudjh vsdflqj v fdq eh frpsxwhg dv wkh
udwlr ehwzhhq wkh sduwlfoh yroxph dqg wkh yroxph dydlodeoh iru lwv jurzwk=
J @ EnCfr > +61<,
2of 

zkhuh Jf lv wkh pd{lpxp yroxphwulf frqfhqwudwlrq1 Lq wkhru|/ Jf @ ZS 1 Krzhyhu/


wr dffrxqw iru d odujh vsuhdg lq sduwlfoh vl}h/ wklv ydoxh lv uhsodfhg e| wkh iroorzlqj
hpslulfdo uhodwlrq wr wkh Eodlqh qhqhvv lqgh{/ EI +p2 nj3 ,=
 8 f
Jf @ 3=:< Df = +6143,
Lq erwk/ Ht1 61; dqg Ht1 61</ uf +@43 p, lv wkh dyhudjh udglxv ri wkh rffx0
odwhg sduwlfohv +lghdolvhg dv vskhuhv, frqvlghuhg dv uhsuhvhqwdwlyh iru wkh srzghu
pdwhuldo1
Wrxfklqj ri dgmdfhqw sduwlfohv zrxog rffxu zkhq wkh wklfnqhvv ri wkh h{sdqg0
lqj foxvwhu zrxog htxdo wkh vsdflqj ehwzhhq wkh sduwlfohv1 Ixuwkhu h{sdqvlrq dqg
phujlqj zloo wdnh sodfh dv wkh qhzo| iruphg surgxfwv ri k|gudwlrq zloo whqg wr
oo doo wkh hpsw| vsdfh dydlodeoh lq wkh xqlw fhoo1 Dffruglqj wr vwdjh 7 lq Ilj1 6
+frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq,/ wkh pd{lpxp wklfnqhvv ri wkh h{sdqglqj foxvwhu/  4@ /
fruuhvsrqglqj wr d frpsohwh oolqj ri wkh fxelf xqlw fhoo fdq eh fdofxodwhg iurp
wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq ue^ dqg uf 1
616 Plfurvwuxfwxudo ghyhorsphqw prgho 8<

Li zh zulwh J dv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh srzghu ghqvlw|/ R +Ht1 519, dqg ri wkh
zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr/ S 6 =

J @ TTRJ_eo @ 4R
> +6144,
|J|@, n 4

+ S ,6
iurp Ht1 61< dqg Ht1 6144 zh fdq fdofxodwh wkh dyhudjh vsdflqj ehwzhhq srzghu
sduwlfohv/ v/ dv=
  
   *
v @ 5uf Jf 4 . 4 4R
S 6
4 = +6145,

Wkxv/ wkh pd{lpxp wklfnqhvv ri wkh h{sdqglqj foxvwhu htxdov=


 k  
   l*
 4@ @ ue^  uf @ uf 5" Jf 4 . 44R S 6
4 = +6146,

Wkh uhdfwlrq surgxfwv jhqhudwhg gxulqj wkh sduwlfoh h{sdqvlrq/ suhflslwdwhg


rq wkh rxwhu vxuidfh dqg lq wkh iuhh sruh vroxwlrq skdvh duh fdoohg wkh rxwhu
surgxfwv> wkh fkdudfwhulvwlf srurvlw| dw wkh rxwhuprvw erxqgdu| ri wkh h{sdqglqj
foxvwhu ehlqj %J 1 Dw wkh vdph wlph/ lqvlgh wkh ruljlqdo sduwlfoh erxqgdu| wkh
lqqhu surgxfwv duh iruphg/ kdylqj frqvwdqw plfurvwuxfwxudo surshuwlhv dqg d
srurvlw| htxdo wr wkh fkdudfwhulvwlf srurvlw| ri jho/ %? @ %S @ 3=5;1 Frqvlghulqj
wkdw/ dw wkh surfhvv ri k|gudwlrq/ wkh foxvwhu wklfnqhvv lv  6 +p,/ wkh exon srurvlw|
glvwulexwlrq/ %B / dw dq| srlqw lq wkh foxvwhu orfdwhg dw wkh glvwdqfh  +p, iurp
wkh lqlwldo rxwhu erxqgdu| ri wkh sduwlfoh lv prghoohg e|=
 
%B @ +%J  %? , B
B6
. %? = +6147,

Lq vhfwlrq 518 lw zdv phqwlrqhg wkdw wkh sruh vsdfh ri wkh fhphqw sdvwh ri
wrwdo srurvlw| % fdq eh glylghg lqwr wkuhh eurdg fdwhjrulhv/ l1h1 wkh lqwhuod|hu +%, ,/
jho +%} , dqg fdsloodu| +%S , srurvlw|1 Iru fodulw|/ lw lv uhfdslwxodwhg wkdw fdsloodu|
srurvlw| h{lvwv lq wkh odujh vsdfh ehwzhhq srzghu sduwlfohv/ jho srurvlw| h{lvwv lq
wkh lqwhuvwlwldo vsdfhv ri jho surgxfwv +FVK judlqv, zkloh lqwhuod|hu srurvlw| lv
wkh vsdfh ehwzhhq wkh od|hu vwuxfwxuhv ri FVK frpsulvlqj wkh lqwhuod|hu zdwhu
vwurqjo| erxqg wr wkh vxuidfhv1 Iru k|gudwlrq uhdfwlrqv rqo| wkh zdwhu khog
lq wkh fdsloodu| sruhv lv uhohydqw vlqfh lw uhsuhvhqwv wkh rqo| vsdfh zkhuh qhz
k|gudwlrq surgxfwv fdq eh iruphg1 Nqrzlqj wkh dyhudjh ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq/
/ ri frqfuhwh dqg wkh dprxqw ri fkhplfdoo| frpelqhg zdwhu/ */ wkh zhljkw dqg
yroxph ri glhuhqw k|gudwlrq surgxfwv shu xqlw yroxph ri fhphqw sdvwh fdq eh
93 Frqfuhwh prghoolqj

frpsxwhg +vhfwlrq 51:,1 Iurp Ht1 5148 dqg Ht1 519/ wkh jho dqg fdsloodu| srurvlwlhv
iroorz dv=
%} @ Y}R%S  %, %S @ 4  Y}R  +4  , `4RR = +6148,
Wkh udwlr %, ehwzhhq wkh yroxph ri lqwhuod|hu sruhv dqg wkh yroxph ri gu| jho
surgxfwv zlwk wkh ghqvlw|/ } / lv jlyhq e| Ht1 51491 Dvvxplqj d od|hu vwuxfwxuh
zlwk dq lqwhuod|hu vsdflqj w ri rqh zdwhu prohfxoh +3=5; qp, iru wkh FVK pdvv
dqg ghqrwlqj zlwk v, +p2 nj3 , wkh vshflf vxuidfh duhd ri wkh lqwhuod|hu/ rqh jhwv=
%, @ 2 w v, } = +6149,
Wkh ydoxh ri v, lv xvxdoo| dvvxphg wr eh ghshqghqw rq wkh plqhudorjlfdo fkdu0
dfwhulvwlfv ri wkh srzghu1
Wr ghwhuplqh wkh glvwulexwlrqv ri wkh fdsloodu|/ jho dqg lqwhuod|hu srurvlwlhv/
rqh kdv uvw wr ghwhuplqh wkh vshflf vxuidfh duhdv ri hdfk ri wkhvh skdvhv1 Dv d
jho ri vlplodu surshuwlhv lv iruphg frqwlqxrxvo|/ lwv plfurvwuxfwxudo surshuwlhv duh
frqvwdqw dqg lqghshqghqw rq wkh surjuhvv ri k|gudwlrq1 Wkxv/ wkh vxuidfh duhd
ri wkh jho/ V} +p2 p3 , shu xqlw yroxph ri wkh sdvwh lv vlpso|=
V} @ Z}r v} > +614:,
zlwk wkh vshflf vxuidfh duhd ri k|gudwhv v} @731333 p2 nj3 dqg Z}r wkh yroxph
ri jho vrolgv +vhh dovr vhfwlrq 51:,1 Wkh vshflf vxuidfh duhd ri fdsloodu| srurvlw|/
VS +p2 p3 ,/ ghqhg shu xqlw yroxph ri sdvwh/ pxvw eh frpsxwhg dw hdfk vwdjh
ri k|gudwlrq dv=
VS @ oe^ sEEB360?  > +614;,
zlwk ) +qp, ehlqj wkh yroxph wr vxuidfh duhd udwlr ri wkh vrolg judlq ri k|gudwhv
frqwdlqhg lq wkh uhjlrq gu orfdwhg dw d glvwdqfh u iurp wkh fhqwuh ri wkh sduwlfoh
dqg ue^ ghqhg e| Ht1 61;1 Wkh ixqfwlrq i + 6 , +p , kdv dv yduldeoh wkh foxvwhu
wklfnqhvv dw wkh lqvwdqfh ri k|gudwlrq/  6 1 Lw fdq eh uhsuhvhqwhg e| d wklug0rughu
sro|qrpldo zkrvh frhflhqwv duh ghwhuplqhg e| dsso|lqj pdvv frqvhuydwlrq ri
wkh k|gudwhv iruphg xs wr d fhuwdlq ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq/ l1h1 wkh wrwdo pdvv ri
k|gudwhv vkrxog eh htxdo wr wkh vxp ri wkh pdvvhv ri wkh k|gudwhv uhvlglqj lq
wkh lqqhu dqg rxwhu surgxfwv ^:4`1 Wkhvh frhflhqwv dovr uhhfw wkdw lqlwldoo| wkh
foxvwhu h{sdqgv iuhho| zkloh/ zkhq lw kdv frpsohwho| oohg xs wkh vxuurxqglqj
dydlodeoh vsdfh/ fkdqjhv lq exon srurvlw| rffxu vxfk dv wr dffrpprgdwh wkh qhz
jho ehlqj iruphg1
617 Prlvwxuh wudqvsruw prgho 94

Iurp lqirupdwlrq rq wkh vshflf vxuidfh duhd/ wkh srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq fdq
eh ghulyhg e| dvvxplqj d glvwulexwlrq uhsuhvhqwhg e|=
@ 4  h{s +Eu, > g @ Eu h{s+Eu,g oq u> +614<,
lq zklfk lv wkh iudfwlrq sruh yroxph ri wkh srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq ri sruhv zlwk
udglxv ohvv wkdq u1 Wkh sdudphwhu E +p3, lv wkh rqo| iuhh sdudphwhu wkdw gh0
vfulehv wkh glvwulexwlrq1 Wkh shdn ri wkh srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq/ li sorwwhg rq d
orjdulwkplf vfdoh lv dw oq u @   1
Iru d v|vwhp ri f|olqgulf sruhv/ zlwk wrwdo srurvlw| %/ wkh glvwulexwlrq sdudp0
hwhu E fdq eh uhodwhg wr wkh vxuidfh duhd shu xqlw yroxph/ V / yld=
U U
V @ 5% _v
o
@ 5% E h{s +Eu, g+oq u,= +6153,
Xqghu wklv dvvxpswlrq +f|olqgulfdo sruhv,/ wkh glvwulexwlrq sdudphwhuv E} dqg
ES iru wkh jho dqg fdsloodu| srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq fdq eh fdofxodwhg xvlqj Ht1 6153
dqg wkh vshflf vxuidfhv V} dqg VS iurp Ht1 614: dqg Ht1 614;/ uhvshfwlyho| ^:4`1
Wkxv/ wkh qrupdolvhg srurvlw| glvwulexwlrqv iru wkh fdsloodu| dqg jho srurvlwlhv
duh uhsuhvhqwhg e|=
%S +u, @ %S ^4  h{s +ES u,` > +6154,
%} +u, @ %} ^4  h{s +E} u,` = +6155,
Wkh wrwdo srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq ri wkh fhphqw sdvwh/ % +u, lv rewdlqhg dv wkh vxp0
pdwlrq ri wkh lqwhuod|hu srurvlw| %, / wkh fdsloodu| %S +u, dqg jho %} +u, srurvlw|
glvwulexwlrqv=
% +u, @ %, . %} ^4  h{s +E} u,` . %S ^4  h{s +ES u,` = +6156,
Wkh idfw wkdw wkh lqwhuod|hu srurvlw| lv vlpso| oxpshg zlwk wkh fdsloodu| dqg
jho srurvlw| glvwulexwlrqv lv prwlydwhg e| wkh idfw wkdw lwv h{dfw fkdudfwhulvwlfv duh
qrw zhoo xqghuvwrrg1 Iurp wkh srlqw ri ylhz ri prlvwxuh wudqvsruw/ wkh lqwhuod|hu
srurvlw| kdv qr frqwulexwlrq vlqfh wkh zdwhu lv {hg1

e Lt|hi |h@?tTLh| 4L_i*


Wkh suhvhqfh ri prlvwxuh2zdwhu lq frqfuhwh lv fulwlfdo qrw rqo| lq wkh hduo| vwdjhv
zkhq wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh lv iruphg exw dovr iru wkh odwhu hyroxwlrq1 Iru wkh wzr
skdvhv wdnhq lqwr dffrxqw/ l1h1 oltxlg dqg ydsrxu/ wkh glxvlyh dqg wkh exon
95 Frqfuhwh prghoolqj

pryhphqw frqwulexwlrqv wr wkh prlvwxuh wudqvsruw duh uhjdughg iurp d wkhupr0


g|qdplf ylhzsrlqw1 Lqwhuqdo prlvwxuh orvv rffxuv ehfdxvh ri k|gudwlrq/ qrw rqo|
wkh exon srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq xqghujrhv prglfdwlrqv exw dovr wkh dprxqw ri
zdwhu erxqg wr wkh k|gudwhg fhphqw vwuxfwxuh fkdqjhv1 Lqwhuqdoo| jhqhudwhg
oltxlg sruh0suhvvxuh judglhqwv duh wkh pdlq phfkdqlvp ohdglqj wr wkh uhglvwul0
exwlrq ri prlvwxuh> whpshudwxuh judglhqwv ehlqj dvvxphg wr kdyh d qhjoljleoh
lqxhqfh ^:4`1 Wkh vhfrqg lqxhqwldo idfwru rq prlvwxuh fkdqjhv lv wkh h{fkdqjh
zlwk hqylurqphqwdo zdwhu ydsrxu1 Dw orz uhodwlyh kxplglwlhv glxvlrq ri ydsrxuv
lv grplqdqw1 Iru kljk uhodwlyh kxplglwlhv fdsloodu| vxfwlrq ehfrphv lpsruwdqw/
wkh exon ri wkh vdwxudwhg sruh v|vwhp ehlqj iruphg e| wkh zdwhu frqghqvhg lq
wkh fdsloodu| sruhv1 Sruh suhvvxuh dqg uhodwlyh kxplglw| lq wkh hqylurqphqw duh
lqwhudfwlyho| uhodwhg dqg ghwhuplqh wkh klvwru| ri gu|lqj dqg zhwwlqj ri frq0
fuhwh1 Wkxv/ wr ehvw ghvfuleh wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh ghyhorsphqw dqg wkh prlvwxuh
wudqvsruw lq frqfuhwh/ d prlvwxuh wudqvsruw prgho frxsohg wr wkh hyroxwlrq ri
k|gudwlrq dqg dffrxqwlqj iru fkdqjhv lq wkh hqylurqphqwdo uhodwlyh kxplglw| kdv
wr eh ghyhorshg1
Wkh vdph glylvlrq ri wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh/ l1h1 lqwhuod|hu/ jho dqg fdsloodu|
srurvlw| frpsrqhqwv lv dovr dgrswhg iru wkh srurxv sdwk ri prlvwxuh wudqvsruw1
Wkh srurxv phglxp lv frqvlghuhg lvrwkhupdo/ lvrwurslf dqg qrq0ghirupdeoh frq0
vlvwlqj ri sruhv lghdolvhg lq vkdsh/ l1h1 zlwk d qhfn dw hdfk hqg1 Wkh surfhvv ri
prlvwxuh wudqvsruw fdq eh ghvfulehg e| yh pdmru vwhsv=
 dgvruswlrq ri zdwhu prohfxohv wr wkh vrolg sruh vxuidfh>
 ydsrxu x{ wr wkh qhljkerxulqj sruhv/ diwhu d frpsohwh prqrod|hu lv iruphg>
 frqghqvdwlrq dw wkh qhfnhg sruh0hqgv>
 xvlqj wkh frqghqvhg zdwhu od|huv dw wkh sruh hqgv dv d vkruw0flufxlwhg sdwk/
ydsrxu pryhphqw frqwlqxhv/ jhqhudwlqj dq lqfuhdvh ri wkh ydsrxu suhvvxuh lqvlgh
wkh sruhv dqg ri wkh wklfnqhvv ri wkh dgvruehg zdwhu od|hu1 Iorz lq wklq oltxlg
opv pd| rffxu1
 wudqvlwlrq wr vdwxudwhg rz +odplqdu uhjlph, lv dovr srvvleoh lq fdvh ixoo0
frqghqvdwlrq zlwklq wkh sruhv wdnhv sodfh1
Wkh skhqrphqd ri prlvwxuh wudqvsruw zloo eh glvfxvvhg dw wkh ohyho ri d uhs0
uhvhqwdwlyh hohphqwdu| yroxph/ UHY1 Dv dw d fhuwdlq wlph dqg iru d jlyhq UK
glhuhqw vwhsv ri prlvwxuh wudqvsruw zrxog eh lq surjuhvv/ wkh wrwdo prlvwxuh
wudqvsruw ehkdylrxu lq wkh srurxv phglxp zrxog eh rewdlqhg e| lqwhjudwlqj wkh
prlvwxuh wudqvsruw ryhu doo wkh vdwxudwhg dqg xqvdwxudwhg sruhv lq wkh UHY1 Iru
vlpsolflw| uhdvrqv/ doo htxdwlrqv glvfxvvhg qh{w zloo dsso| iru wkh rqh0glphqvlrqdo
fdvh/ dowkrxjk lq wkh frpsxwdwlrqdo prgho wkh wkuhh0glphqvlrqdo fdvh lv lqfru0
617 Prlvwxuh wudqvsruw prgho 96

srudwhg1

e Lt|hi |h@?tTLh| i^@|L?


Wkh dlp ri wklv vhfwlrq lv wr ghulyh dq htxdwlrq wkdw ghvfulehv wkh udwh ri fkdqjh
ri wkh zdwhu frqwhqw ri frqfuhwh frqvlghulqj doo wkh lqxhqflqj idfwruv phqwlrqhg
deryh1 Dv wkh pdvv ri prlvwxuh lq ydsrxu irup fdq eh frqvlghuhg qhjoljleoh/
wkh wrwdo pdvv ri zdwhu suhvhqw lq d xqlw yroxph ri frqfuhwh/  +nj p3 , lv
dssur{lpdwhg e|=

   %p> +6157,

zkhuh wkh surgxfw %p uhsuhvhqwv wkh zdwhu0oohg srurvlw| dqg  lv wkh ghqvlw|
ri oltxlg zdwhu1
Li rqh ghqrwhv e| M +nj p32 v3 , wkh x{ ri prlvwxuh lq oltxlg dqg ydsrxu
irup/ wkh prglhg frqwlqxlw| htxdwlrq +Ht1 719, |lhogv=
Yw 
Y|
. gly M @ 3= +6158,

Dw d jlyhq UK/ wzr wudqvsruw phfkdqlvpv frqwulexwh wr wkh wrwdo prlvwxuh


x{/ M = exon pryhphqw ri oltxlg zdwhu lq erwk vdwxudwhg dqg xqvdwxudwhg sruhv/
Mc, / dqg ydsrxu pryhphqw +jdv skdvh, lq wkh xqvdwxudwhg sruhv/ Mc 1 D uvw
dssur{lpdwlrq lv wkdw wkh wrwdo jdv suhvvxuh lq wkh srurxv phglxp lv frqvwdqw
dqg htxdo wr wkh dwprvskhulf suhvvxuh1 Wkxv/ zdwhu pryhphqw lq xqvdwxudwhg
sruhv lv dvvxphg wr wdnh sodfh e| glxvlrq rqo| dqg khqfh lv ghvfulehg e| Ilfn*v
odz=

Mc @ G Y4
Y%
> +6159,

zlwk G +p2 v3 , wkh exon ydsrxu glxvlylw| dqg  +nj p3 , wkh ydsrxu ghqvlw|1
Oltxlg zdwhu lv gulyhq e| wkh exon oltxlg suhvvxuh S, +Sd, dqg iroorzv Gduf|*v
odz=
n Y,
Mc, @ N, Y , @  > +615:,
Y% 
 Y%
zlwk N, +v, wkh prlvwxuh0ghshqghqw shuphdelolw| frhflhqw1 Wkh oltxlg frqgxf0
wlylw| N, lv sursruwlrqdo wr wkh udwlr ri wkh lqwulqvlf shuphdelolw| ri wkh srurxv
97 Frqfuhwh prghoolqj

phglxp/ n +p2 ,/ ghshqghqw rqo| rq wkh fkdudfwhulvwlf surshuwlhv ri wkh srurxv


phgld/ dqg wkh ylvfrvlw|  +Sd v, ri wkh xlg 1
Lqvhuwlqj Ht1 6159 dqg Ht1 615: lqwr Ht1 6158/ wkh wrwdo prlvwxuh frqvhuydwlrq
iru frqfuhwh lq rqh0glphqvlrq lv ghvfulehg e|=
k l
Yw 
Y|
@  gly +Mc . Mc, , @ Y
Y%
G Y4
Y%
 . N Y , =
, Y% +615;,

D pruh ghwdlohg ghulydwlrq ri Ht1 615; lv jlyhq e| Pdhndzd hw do1 ^:4`1


Wkh udwh ri fkdqjh ri  / lv dovr lqxhqfhg e| fkdqjhv lq wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh
+h{suhvvhg lq whupv ri fkdqjh lq wrwdo srurvlw| dqg ri wkh srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq,
dqg e| wkh k|gudwlrq surfhvv1 Pdwkhpdwlfdoo| irupxodwhg/ wkhvh frqwulexwlrqv
kdyh wr eh dgghg wr Ht1 615;1 Ixuwkhupruh/ wkh txdqwlw| wkdw lv lqxhqfhg e|
dqg uhodwhv doo wkhvh frqwulexwlrqv lv wkh exon oltxlg suhvvxuh/ S, 1 Zlwk uhvshfw wr
wkh exon oltxlg suhvvxuh dovr wkh wudqvsruw frhflhqwv/ G dqg N, duh frqwlqxrxv1
Frqvhtxhqwo|/ d sruh0suhvvxuh edvhg irupxodwlrq ri Ht1 615;/ lv ghvluhg1
Dvvxplqj wkdw lq Ht1 6157 wkh rqo| suhvvxuh0ghshqghqw txdqwlw| lv wkh wrwdo
prlvwxuh frqwhqw/ p @ p+S, , dqg dffrxqwlqj iru d g|qdplfdo plfurvwuxfwxuh/
% @ %+w, exw ljqrulqj dq| sruh0zdwhu ghqvlw| hhfw/ wkh ohiw0kdqg vlgh whup lq
Ht1 615; ehfrphv=
Yw 
Y|
@  % YY6 Y ,
, Y |
.  p YY0| = +615<,
Vlploduo|/ dvvxplqj d suhvvxuh ghshqghqfh ri wkh ydsrxu ghqvlw|/ wkh uljkw0
kdqg vlgh whup fdq eh uhzulwwhq dv=
k  l k l
gly M  @ Y
Y%
G YY 4, . N, Y ,
Y%
@ Y
Y%
+N . N, , Y
Y%
, > +6163,

zlwk N +v, wkh ydsrxu frqgxfwlylw| lq xqvdwxudwhg sruhv1



`i tii! @? i^@|L? |L _itUhMi |i 4Lt|hi |h@?tTLh| ? Ui4i?||Lt 4@|ih@*t `i uL**L
|i @TThL@U Lu @i!@@ i| @* d.o @UULh_?} |L Uc uLh @?@*)t?} |i }i?ihU t@|h@|i_
?t@|h@|i_ L ? @ TLhLt 4i_4c @ TLhiThitthi M@ti_ uLh4*@|L? t @_LT|i_ 6Lh ML|
|i 4Li4i?| ? |i *^_ @?_ }@t T@tic |i UL?|hM|L? _i |L UL?iU|L? t UL?t_ihi_
?i}*}M*i Atc *^_ @|ih t |h@?tTLh|i_ MiU@ti Lu }h@_i?|t ? U@T**@h) @U|L? L?*) Ai
uLh4*@|L? Lu #@hU)<t *@ |@| i ti E,^ 2. t i^@*i?| |LG
^, ' 3&Ew,  }o@_  S
ihi S E@ t |i 4@UhLtULTU U@T**@h) Thitthi @?_ &Et t |i igiU|i Tih4i@M*|) _iTi?
_i?| L? |i @U|@* L*4i|hU *^_ @|ih UL?|i?|c w, At *@t| uLh4*@|L? t Lu|i? i4T*L)i_
? |i M*_?}%i?}?iih?} *|ih@|hi
617 Prlvwxuh wudqvsruw prgho 98

Wkh udwh ri prlvwxuh orvv gxh wr fkhplfdo {dwlrq ri zdwhu kdv wr eh dgghg
dv d vlqn whup lq Ht1 615;=
T+_o @ _Ek)`
_|
R
= +6164,
Wklv whup lv ghshqghqw rq wkh ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq/ / zklfk lq wxuq ghshqgv
rq wkh dydlodeoh fdsloodu| frqghqvhg zdwhu +Ht1 618,1 Wkh prlvwxuh orvv gxh wr
k|gudwlrq lv ghshqghqw rq wkh srzghu frpsrvlwlrq dqg lv rewdlqhg iurp wkh pxowl0
frpsrqhqw khdw0ri0k|gudwlrq prgho edvhg rq wkh uhdfwlrq sdwwhuqv ri srzghu
frpsrqhqwv1 Lq wkh prgho/ erwk  dqg * duh xsgdwhg zlwk wkh rqjrlqj k|gudwlrq/
dffruglqj wr wkh vdph pxowl0frpsrqhqw khdw0ri0k|gudwlrq prgho ghvfulehg lq
Vhfwlrq 6151
Frpelqlqj Ht1 615; zlwk Ht1 615</ Ht1 6163 dqg Ht1 6164 dqg dffrxqwlqj iru
d pxowl0frpsrqhqw glylvlrq ri srurvlw| dqg ri zdwhu lq frqfuhwh/ rqh rewdlqv d
jhqhudo htxdwlrq ghvfulelqj wkh prlvwxuh wudqvsruw lq frqfuhwh=
 
S
 % Y 6
 Y
,
Y ,
Y|
 gly ^+N . N ,,  judg S, `

 
S
. p Y 0
 Y
,
 Y Ek)`R 
Y|
@ 3= +6165,


Wkh ghyhorsphqw ri wkh sruh vwuxfwxuh +wklug whup, lv uhodwhg wr wkh frqfhsw ri
sduwlfoh h{sdqvlrq wkdw judgxdoo| wdnhv sodfh/ frqfxuuhqw zlwk wkh hyroxwlrq ri
k|gudwlrq1 Wkh frqgxfwlylw| ri oltxlg dqg ydsrxu prlvwxuh +vhfrqg whup, dqg
wkh prlvwxuh fdsdflw| ri wkh sruhv +uvw whup, zloo eh hydoxdwhg qh{w/ edvhg rq
wkh sruh0vwuxfwxuh prgho ghvfulehg lq Vhfwlrq 6161 Wkh lqgh{ l lqglfdwhv wkh
vxppdwlrq ryhu wkh fdsloodu|/ jho dqg lqwhuod|hu frpsrqhqwv1
Wkh prlvwxuh vdwxudwlrq/ p / dqg wkh frqgxfwlylw| ri oltxlg dqg ydsrxu prlv0
wxuh/ N, dqg N zloo eh vhsdudwho| ghvfulehg lq vhfwlrq 61715 dqg vhfwlrq 617161

e2 Lt|hi t@|h@|L?


Dv ghvfulehg lq wkh ehjlqqlqj ri wklv fkdswhu/ wkh surfhvv ri prlvwxuh wudqvsruw
wdnhv sodfh lq vhyhudo vwhsv1 Dw d fhuwdlq wlph dqg iru d jlyhq UK wkh prlvwxuh
vdwxudwlrq/ p frqvwlwxwhv ri= ixoo| vdwxudwhg sruhv oohg zlwk zdwhu lq d frq0
ghqvhg irup +pS ,/ xqvdwxudwhg sruhv zlwk d od|hu ri dgvruehg zdwhu prohfxohv
dw wkh vrolg vxuidfh +p@_r , dqg lqn0erwwoh sruhv1 Wkh odwwhu sruhv duh odujh sruhv
lqwhufrqqhfwhg rqo| zlwk pxfk pruh qduurz sruhv vxfk wkdw prlvwxuh fdq rqo| eh
orvw rqfh wkh frqqhfwlqj sruhv duh qrw dq|pruh vdwxudwhg +p?& ,1 Wklv glylvlrq
99 Frqfuhwh prghoolqj

dssolhv pdlqo| wr wkh fdsloodu| dqg jho sruhv1 Lq wkh iroorzlqj glvfxvvlrq lw lv dv0
vxphg wkdw doo sruhv duh f|olqgulfdo lq vkdsh1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/ iru d qrq0lqwhuod|hu
qrupdolvhg srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq/ %S} / jlyhq e|=

%S} @ 0S d3i 3
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pS} @ pS . p@_r . p?& = +6167,
Wr rewdlq wkh wrwdo pdvv ri zdwhu suhvhqw lq d xqlw yroxph ri frqfuhwh wkh lqwhu0
od|hu frpsrqhqw lv dovr frqvlghuhg=
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Wkh ghjuhh ri vdwxudwlrq ri wkh lqwhuod|hu sruhv +p, , lv frqqhfwhg wr dpelhqw
uhodwlyh kxplglw| dqg lv ghvfulehg e| hpslulfdo uhodwlrqv ^:4`1 Uhprydo ri lqwhu0
od|hu zdwhu kdsshqv rqo| xqghu frqglwlrqv ri vhyhuh gu|lqj +43  5( UK , ehlqj
dffrpsdqlhg e| d frqvlghudeoh fkdqjh lq wkh vl}h ri wkh vshflphq1 Krzhyhu/ uh0
hqwu| ri lqwhuod|hu zdwhu lv glhuhqw dqg surfhhgv judgxdoo| ryhu wkh hqwluh udqjh
ri UK1

Frqwulexwlrq iurp ixoo| vdwxudwhg sruhv

Iluvw wkhuh zloo eh d fdwhjru| ri ixoo| vdwxudwhg sruhv zkhuh wkh oltxlg prlvwxuh
lv lq wkhuprg|qdplf htxloleulxp zlwk wkh ydsrxu skdvh/ dq| vpdoo fkdqjh lq
wkh suhvvxuh ru uhodwlyh kxplglw| ri wkh jdv skdvh zloo ohdg wr d fkdqjh lq wkh
oltxlg suhvvxuh skdvh1 Wkh ydoxh ri wkh udglxv ur +p, xs wr zklfk doo sruhv duh
frpsohwho| oohg zlwk zdwhu/ dw d jlyhq dpelhqw UK / lv rewdlqhg dv=
ur @  42j >
-A *? -M
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zlwk P +nj pro3, ehlqj wkh prohfxodu pdvv ri oltxlg/ U wkh xqlyhuvdo jdv frq0
vwdqw/ W +N, wkh devroxwh whpshudwxuh dqg  +Q p3 , wkh vxuidfh whqvlrq ri wkh
oltxlg1 Wklv uhodwlrq lv rewdlqhg e| frpelqlqj Nhoylq*v htxdwlrq/
S, @ 4-A oq UK> +616:,
617 Prlvwxuh wudqvsruw prgho 9:

zklfk uhodwhv wkh oltxlg suhvvxuh S, wr wkh uhodwlyh kxplglw| ri wkh dwprvskhuh/
UK dqg Odsodfh*v htxdwlrq=
S, @  2oj = +616;,
Ht1 616; olqnv wkh fxuydwxuh ri dq lqwhuidfh/ u>wr wkh suhvvxuh glhuhqfh ryhu lw1
Lq erwk htxdwlrqv wkh suhvvxuh glhuhqfh lv frpsxwhg uhodwlyho| wr wkh ydsrxu
suhvvxuh wkdw lv dvvxphg vpdoo dqg frqvwdqw dqg/ iru wklv uhdvrq/ vhw wr }hur1
Lqwhjudwlqj wkh sruh yroxph o|lqj ehorz wkh sruh udglxv ur / wkh zdwhu frqwhqw
lq d srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq jlyhq e| Ht1 614< lv=
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Frqwulexwlrq iurp xqvdwxudwhg sruhv

Lq dgglwlrq wr wkh ixoo| vdwxudwhg sruhv dovr sduwo| vdwxudwhg sruhv zlwk zdwhu lq
dq dgvruehg skdvh duh suhvhqw1 Dgvruswlrq lv fdxvhg e| wkh Ydq ghu Zddov irufhv
wkdw dfw ehwzhhq wkh kljk0hqhujhwlf prohfxohv dw wkh vxuidfh ri wkh vrolg pdwul{
dqg wkh dgvruedwh prohfxohv1 D od|hu ri qlwh wklfnqhvv ri dgvruehg prohfxohv lv
iruphg dw wkh vrolg vxuidfh1 Dsso|lqj wkh Eudxqhu0Hpphw0Whoohu +EHW, wkhru|
prglhg e| Kloohueruj ^:4`/ wkh wklfnqhvv ri wkh dgvruehg od|hu ri zdwhu/ w@ +p,/
iru vlolfdwh pdwhuldov fdq eh frpsxwhg dv=
w@ @  fD2D u 3H
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wr ixoo| vdwxudwh wkh sruh dqg u @ u  w@ wkh
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sruh/ wkh ghjuhh ri vdwxudwlrq lv po @ 4  o3o|@ 2 > zkloh wkh wrwdo vdwxudwlrq lq


d glvwulexwlrq jlyhq e| Ht1 614< lv +lqfoxglqj ixoo| dqg sduwldoo| vdwxudwhg sruhv,=
]oS ]" ]"
p@_r @ g . po g @ pS . uEpo h{s+Eu,g oq u= +6174,
f oS oS

Wkh sruh udglxv dw zklfk wkh htxloleudwhg lqwhuidfh ri oltxlg dqg ydsrxu lv
fuhdwhg/ uS / lv sursruwlrqdo wr ur +Ht1 6169,/ wkh sursruwlrqdolw| frqvwdqw +F @
5=48, ehlqj ghwhuplqhg iurp qxphurxv frpsdulvrqv ri wkh dqdo|wlfdo suhglfwlrqv
ri wkh htxloleudwhg lqwhuidfh udgll dv rewdlqhg iurp wkh prglhg EHW wkhru| dqg
9; Frqfuhwh prghoolqj

ur dv jlyhq e| Nhoylq*v htxdwlrq ^:4`1 Lw vkrxog eh srlqwhg rxw wkdw wkh udglxv
uS lv odujhu wkdq wkh sruh udglxv ur 1 Lq wklv zd| rqh dffrxqwv iru sruhv vdwxudwhg
gxh wr frqghqvdwlrq dqg dgvruswlrq1 Dv Ht1 6174 lv lpsolflw lq wkh yduldeoh w@ / wkh
lqwhjudo lq Ht1 6174 lv hydoxdwhg iurp d prglhg h{suhvvlrq sursrvhg e| Pdhndzd
hw do1 ^:4`1

K|vwhuhvlv ri prlvwxuh dgvruswlrq dqg ghvruswlrq

Qrw rqo| iru frqfuhwh exw dovr iru rwkhu srurxv pdwhuldov lw zdv revhuyhg wkdw
wkh dprxqw ri zdwhu lq frqfuhwh ghshqgv rq wkh klvwru| ri gu|lqj dqg zhwwlqj/
h{klelwlqj d k|vwhuhvlv w|sh ri ehkdylrxu ^:4`1 Wkh prvw suredeoh fdxvh iru wklv
ehkdylrxu lv wkh lqn0erwwoh hhfw/ l1h1 pdq| ri wkh odujhu sruhv kdyh lqwhufrq0
qhfwlrqv rqo| wkurxjk sruhv pxfk vpdoohu lq udglxv vxfk dv prlvwxuh fdq rqo|
eh h{fkdqjhg dv orqj dv wkh frqqhfwlqj sruhv duh qrw vdwxudwhg1 Wkxv/ iru dq
duelwudu| gu|lqj0zhwwlqj klvwru| wkh yroxph iudfwlrq ri wudsshg zdwhu p?& dggv
xs wr wkh yroxph iudfwlrq ri zdwhu lq vdwxudwhg sruhv/ pS / wr rewdlq wkh wrwdo
vdwxudwlrq ri srurxv phgld1 Wkh wudsshg0zdwhu frqwulexwlrq fdq eh fdofxodwhg
iru wkh iroorzlqj sdwwhuqv=
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Wkh dgvruswlrq sdwk zloo eh vlplodu wr wkh ylujlq rqh exw zkhq wkh uhodwlyh
kxplglw| ghfuhdvhv/ wkh ghvruswlrq fxuyh zloo qrw uhwxuq wr wkh ylujlq fxuyh1
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Gxulqj wkh uvw gu|lqj djdlq d fxuyh vlplodu wr wkh ylujlq rqh zloo eh iroorzhg1
Krzhyhu/ zlwk lqfuhdvlqj dpelhqw uhodwlyh kxplglw| d judgxdo uhoolqj ri sruhv
zlwk prlvwxuh zloo wdnh sodfh vlwxdwlqj wkh dgvruswlrq orrs vrphzkhuh lqvlgh wkh
k|vwhuhvlv suroh1
D k|vwhuhvlv prgho lv ehvw vxlwhg wr ghvfuleh vlwxdwlrqv fruuhvsrqglqj wr
kljk uhodwlyh kxplglwlhv1 Dw orz uhodwlyh kxplglwlhv glhuhqfhv rffxu gxh wr wkh
vwurqjo| erxqg lqwhuod|hu zdwhu rq wkh FVK vxuidfh wkdw fdq qrw eh ghvfulehg
e| sk|vlfdo wkhuprg|qdplf prghov ri frqghqvdwlrq dqg dgvruswlrq1

e Lt|hi UL?_U||)


Wr ghvfuleh wkh frqgxfwlylw| ri oltxlg dqg ydsrxu prlvwxuh lq Ht1 6165/ wzr
fkdudfwhulvwlfv kdyh wr eh wdnhq lqwr dffrxqw=
617 Prlvwxuh wudqvsruw prgho 9<

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zklfk wudqvsruw wdnhv sodfh>
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lq ixoo| dqg sduwo| vdwxudwhg sruhv1 Iru sduwo| vdwxudwhg sruhv dgglwlrqdo wudqv0
sruw wdnhv sodfh yld glxvlrq dqg khqfh ydsrxu frqgxfwlylw|/ N qhhgv wr eh
lqfrusrudwhg1

Oltxlg frqgxfwlylw|

Dv vkrzq lq Ht1 615:/ wkh oltxlg frqgxfwlylw| N, lv jlyhq e| wkh udwlr ehwzhhq
wkh lqwulqvlf shuphdelolw| ri wkh srurxv phglxp/ n +p2 ,/ ghshqghqw rqo| rq wkh
fkdudfwhulvwlf surshuwlhv ri wkh srurxv phgld/ dqg wkh ylvfrvlw|  +Sd v, ri wkh
xlg1 Iru qrq0lghdo frqglwlrqv/ wkh ylvfrvlw|  lv qrw d frqvwdqw + , exw lv
dhfwhg e| ydulrxv lqwhudfwlrqv wkdw pd| ohdg wr dgglwlrqdo dfwlydwlrq ri rz
fkdudfwhulvhg e| d Jleev iuhh hqhuj| Je +M npro3 ,=
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dffrxqw iru d qrq0lghdo vwdwh ^:4`1
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d srurxv phglxp lghdolvhg dv frqvlvwlqj ri d exqgoh ri vwudljkw fdsloodu| wxehv/
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zlwk ue^ wkh htxlydohqw sruh udglxv ri wkh sruh v|vwhp/ l1h1 wkh jhrphwulf phdq
ri dq| wzr ri wkh sruh udgll lq wkh sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq dqg gD wkh qrupdolvhg
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wkh rz jhqhudwhg e| wkh dssolhg suhvvxuh judglhqw _ _%
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glxvlyh rz wdnlqj sodfh lq wkh jho sruhv kdylqj d udglxv frpsdudeoh wr wkh phdq
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wkh frpelqhg fdsloodu|0jho sruh glvwulexwlrq +Ht1 6166,/ wkh ydsrxu frqgxfwlylw|/
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