Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Portfolio theory
Suppose there are N risky assets, whose rates of returns are given
by the random variables R1, , RN , where
Sn(1) Sn(0)
Rn = , n = 1, 2, , N.
Sn(0)
Let w = (w1 wN )T , wn denotes the proportion of wealth invested
N
X
in asset i, with wn = 1. The rate of return of the portfolio is
n=1
N
X
RP = wnRn.
n=1
Assumptions
Remark
2 . In mean-variance
The portfolio risk of return is quantified by P
analysis, only the first two moments are considered in the port-
folio model. Investment theory prior to Markowitz considered the
maximization of P but without P .
Two-asset portfolio
Consider two assets with known means R1 and R2, variances 12 and
22, of the expected rates of returns R1 and R2, together with the
correlation coefficient .
2 = (1 )2 2 + 2(1 ) + 2 2.
Portfolio variance: P 1 1 2 2
We represent the two assets in a mean-standard deviation diagram
(recall: standard deviation = variance)
When = 1, we have
q
P (; = 1) = [(1 )1 2]2 = |(1 )1 2|.
When is small (close to zero), the corresponding point is close to
P1(1, R1). The line AP1 corresponds to
P (; = 1) = (1 )1 2.
1
The point A corresponds to = .
1 + 2
1
The quantity (1 )1 2 remains positive until = .
1 + 2
1
When > , the locus traces out the upper line AP2.
1 + 2
Suppose 1 < < 1, the minimum variance point on the curve that
represents various portfolio combinations is determined by
2
P
= 2(1 )12 + 222 + 2(1 2)12 = 0
set
giving
12 12
= 2 .
1 212 + 22
Mathematical formulation of Markowitzs mean-variance analysis
N N
1 XX
minimize wi wj ij
2 i=1 j=1
N
X N
X
subject to wi Ri = P and wi = 1.
i=1 i=1
Solution
w = 1(11 + 2) (4)
where 1 = (1 1 1)T and = (R1 R2 RN )T .
1 = 1a + 2b and P = 1b + 2c.
c bP aP b
Solving for 1 and 2 : 1 = and 2 = , where
2
= ac b .
dP dP dP2
= 2 d
dP dP P
= 2P
2a
P q 2b
= a2P 2bP + c
aP b
so that
s
dP
lim = .
dP a
Summary
c bP aP b
Given P , we obtain 1 = and 2 = , and the optimal weight
w = 1(1 1 + 2).
To find the global minimum variance portfolio, we set
dP2 2aP 2b
= =0
dP
so that P = b/a and P2 = 1/a. Also, 1 = 1/a and 2 = 0. We obtain
wg =
1 1= 1 .
1
T
a
1 11
Another portfolio that corresponds to 1 = 0 is obtained when P is taken to be
c
. The value of the other Lagrangian multiplier is given by
b
a cb b 1
2 = = .
b
The optimal weight of this particular portfolio is
1 1
wd = = T
.
b
1 1
c 2 c
a 2b +c c
Also, d2 = b b
= .
b2
Feasible set
2. The feasible region is convex to the left. That is, given any two
points in the region, the straight line connecting them does not
cross the left boundary of the feasible region.
The left boundary of a feasible region is called the minimum variance
set. The most left point on the minimum variance set is called the
minimum variance point. The portfolios in the minimum variance
set are called frontier funds.
For a given level of risk, only those portfolios on the upper half
of the efficient frontier are desired by investors. They are called
efficient funds.
Remark
Let w1 = (w11 wn
1 ), 1, 1 and w 2 = (w 2 w 2)T , 2, 2 are two
1 2 1 n
known solutions to the minimum variance formulation with expected
rates of return 1 2
P and P , respectively.
n
X
ij wj 1 2Ri = 0, i = 1, 2, , n (1)
j=1
Xn
wiri = P (2)
i=1
n
X
wi = 1. (3)
i=1
3. Note that
n h
X i
wi1 + (1 )wi2 Ri
i=1
Xn n
X
= wi1Ri + (1 ) wi2Ri
i=1 i=1
= 1
P + (1 ) 2.
P
Proposition
wP = Awg + (1 A)wd
c bP
where A = 1a = a.
Proof
wu = (1 u)wg + uwd
wv = (1 v)wg + v wd
we then solve for wg and wd in terms of wu and wv . Then
wP = 1awg + (1 1a)wd
1a + v 1 1 u 1a
= wu + wv ,
vu vu
where sum of coefficients = 1.
Example
Security covariance Ri
1 2.30 0.93 0.62 0.74 0.23 15.1
2 0.93 1.40 0.22 0.56 0.26 12.5
3 0.62 0.22 1.80 0.78 0.27 14.7
4 0.74 0.56 0.78 3.40 0.56 9.02
5 0.23 0.26 0.27 0.56 2.60 17.68
Solution procedure to find the two funds in the minimum variance
set:
vi1
wi1 = Pn 1
.
j=1 vj
1
After normalization, this gives the solution to wg , where 1 =
a
and 2 = 0.
2. Set 1 = 0 and 2 = 1; solve the system of equations:
5
X
ij vj2 = Ri, i = 1, 2, , 5.
j=1
1 c
T
d = wd = T = .
b b
c b
Difference in expected returns = d g = = > 0.
b a ab
c 1
Also, difference in variances = d2 g2 = 2 = 2 > 0.
b a ab
How about the covariance of portfolio returns for any two minimum
variance portfolios?
Write
u = w T R and Rv = w T R
RP u P v
where R = (R1 RN )T . Recall that
11 1
gd = cov R, R
a b
T !
=
1 1
1
a b
=
11 = 1 since b = 11.
ab a
cov(RPu , Rv ) = (1 u)(1 v) 2 + uv 2 + [u(1 v) + v(1 u)]
P g d gd
(1 u)(1 v) uvc u + v 2uv
= + 2 +
a b a
1 uv
= + 2
.
a ab
In particular,
cov(Rg , RP ) = wTg wP =
1 1wP 1
= = var(Rg )
a a
for any portfolio wP .
For any Portfolio u, we can find another Portfolio v such that these
two portfolios are uncorrelated. This can be done by setting
1 uv
+ 2
= 0.
a ab
Inclusion of a riskfree asset
Consider a portfolio with weight for a risk free asset and 1 for
a risky asset. The mean of the portfolio is
For each original portfolio formed using the N risky assets, the new
combinations with the inclusion of the risk free asset trace out the
infinite straight line originating from the risk free point and passing
through the point representing the original portfolio.
The line originating from the risk free point cannot be extended
beyond points in the original feasible region (otherwise entail bor-
rowing of the risk free asset). The new feasible region has straight
line front edges.
The new efficient set is the single straight line on the top of the
new triangular feasible region. This tangent line touches the original
feasible region at a point F , where F lies on the efficient frontier of
the original feasible set.
b
Here, Rf < .
a
One fund theorem
Any efficient portfolio (any point on the upper tangent line) can be
expressed as a combination of the risk free asset and the portfolio
(or fund) represented by F .
subject to wT + (1 wT 1)r = P .
1 T
Define L = w w + [P r ( r1)T w]
2
N
X
L
= ij wj ( r1) = 0, i = 1, 2, , N (1)
wi j=1
L
=0 giving ( r1)T w = P r. (2)
Solving (1): w = 1( r1). Substituting into (2)
Recall that ar2 2br + c > 0 for all values of r since = ac b2 > 0.
The minimum variance portfolios without the riskfree asset lie on
the hyperbola
2 a2
P 2bP + c .
P =
b
When r < g = , the upper half line is a tangent to the hyperbola.
a
The tangency portfolio is the tangent point to the efficient frontier
(upper part of the hyperbolic curve) through the point (0, r).
The tangency portfolio M is represented by the point (P,M , MP ),
and the solution to P,M and M
P are obtained by solving simultane-
ously
2 a2
P 2bP + c
P =
q
P = r + P c 2rb + r2a.
Once P is obtained, we solve for and w from
P r = 1( r 1).
= and w
c 2rb + r2a
The tangency portfolio M is shown to be
1( r1) c br c 2rb + r2a
wM = , M
P = and 2
P,M = 2
.
b ar b ar (b ar)
b
When r < , it can be shown that M
P > r. Note that
a
b b c br b b ar
M
P r
=
a a b ar a a
c br b2 br
= 2+
a a a
ca b2
= 2
= 2
> 0,
a a
M b b
so we deduce that P > > r, where g = . Indeed, we can
a a
b
deduce (P,M , M
P ) does not lie on the upper half line if r .
a
b
When r < , we have the following properties on the minimum
a
variance portfolios.
1. Efficient portfolios
b
When r = , M
P does not exist. Recall that
a
w = 1( r1) so that
T
1 w = (11 r111) = (b ra).
T
When r = b/a, 1 w = 0 as is finite. Any minimum variance port-
folio involves investing everything in the riskfree asset and holding
a portfolio of risky assets whose weights sum to zero.
b
When r > , only the lower half line touches the feasible region with
a
risky assets only.
Any portfolio on the upper half line involves short selling of the
tangency portfolio and investing the proceeds in the riskfree asset.
Alternative approach
vj
Finally, we normalize wj s by wj = Pn , j = 1, , n.
j=1 vk
Example (5 risky assets and one risk free asset)
Data of the 5 risky assets are given in the earlier example, and
rf = 10%.
2 subject to
Optimization problem: max 2 P P 1 w = 1.
wRN
Remark
max [2 T w wT w] subject to 1 w = 1.
wRN
The Lagrangian formulation becomes:
1. When = 0, 2w = 01 and 1T w g = 1
0 1 T T
wg = 1 and 1 = 1 wg = 0 1 11
2 2
hence
11
wg = T
(independent of ).
1 11
2. When 0, w = 1 + 11.
2
T T T 1 1 11
1 = 1 w = 1 1 + 1 1 so that = T .
2 2 1 11
T T
w= 1+
1 1 1 1
1 = 1
1 1 11+w .
T T 1 g
1 11 1 1
We obtain
T 1
1 1
z = T
1 T
1 and 1 z = 0.
1 11
Observe that cov(Rwg , Rz) = z T wg = 0.
Financial interpretation
Efficient frontier
Consider
P = T (wg + z ) = g + P,z
2 = 2 + 2 cov(R
P , R ) + 2 2 .
g |
w g z
{z
} z
z T wg =0
!2
2 2 P g 2 . Hence, the frontier is
By eliminating , P = g + z
P,z
2 )-diagram and hyperbolic in the ( , )-
parabolic in the (P , P P P
diagram.
Inclusion of riskfree asset (deterministic rate of return R0 = r)
N
X
Let w = (w0 wN )T and wi = 1.
i=0
2 r + = 0 (i)
2 c + 1 = 0
b 2w (ii)
N
X
wi = 1 (iii)
i=0
Estimation of risk tolerance (inverse problem)
c
With w0 = 1 1 w
c, we obtain the objective function
c
F (w b r 1)T w
c) = 2 [r + ( cT w
c] w c
c
b r 1) 2w
F = 2 ( c
so that
(F )i = 2 [i r] 2cov(RP , Ri), i = 1, 2, , N.
An increase of amount dwi in the weight of asset i and a corre-
sponding reduction of the riskless asset leads to a marginal change
(F )i dwi of the objective function. By increasing (decreasing) the
positions with high (low) marginal utilities, an efficient portfolio w
can be considerably improved.
Summary
w = wg + z
where wg is the portfolio weight of the global minimum variance
portfolio and the weights in z are summed to zero.
3. The additional variance above g2 is given by
2z
2 .
Market value can hardly be determined since liabilities are not readily
marketable. Assume that some specific accounting rules are used to
calculate an initial value L0. If the same rule is applied one period
later, a value L1 results.
L1 L0
Growth rate of the liabilities = RL = , where RL is expected
L0
to depend on the changes of interest rate structure, mortality and
other stochastic factors. Let A0 be the initial value of assets. The
investment strategy of the pension fund is given by the portfolio
choice w.
Surplus optimization
Maximization formulation:-
( " # !)
1 1
max 2 E Rw RL var Rw RL
w RN f0 f0
N
X 1
subject to wi = 1. Note that RL and var(RL) are independent
i=1 f0
of w so that they do not enter into the objective function.
( )
2
max 2 E[Rw ] var(Rw ) + cov(Rw , RL)
w RN f0
N
X
subject to wi = 1. Recall that
i=1
N
X N
X
cov(Rw , RL) = cov wiRi, RL = wicov(Ri, RL).
i=1 i=1
max {2 T w + 2 T w wT w} subject to 1T w = 1,
w RN
1
where T = (1 N ) with i = cov(Ri, RL),
f0
Quadratic utility
b 2
The quadratic utility function can be defined as U (x) = ax x ,
2
where a > 0 and b > 0. This utility function is really meaningful
only in the range x a/b, for it is in this range that the function is
increasing. Note also that for b > 0 the function is strictly concave
everywhere and thus exhibits risk aversion.
mean-variance analysis maximum expected utility criterion
based on quadratic utility
The optimal portfolio is the one that maximizes this value with
respect to all feasible choices of the random wealth variable y.
Normal Returns
Consider a financial market with the riskfree asset and several risky
assets, suppose the utility function satisfies
u0(z)
00 = a + bz, valid for all z,
u (z)
then the optimal portfolio at different wealth levels is given by the
combination of the riskfree asset and market fund consisting of the
risky assets. The relative proportions of risky assets in the market
fund remain the same, irrespective of W0.
Remark
Assume that
aj (W0) = j (W0)(a + bRW0)
where j (W0), j = 1, , n, is a differentiable function.
E[u0(W
f )(R
1
e R)] = 0
k k = 1, 2, , N.
Combining eqs (1) and (4), and knowing that the column vector on
the right hand side of eq (2) is a zero vector, we deduce that
dj
(W0) = 0, j = 1, 2, , n,
dW0
provided that the matrix in eq (2) is non-singular. We then have
aj (W0) = j (a + bRW0)
to obtain
n
X
V (W0) = E u RW0 + e R) (a + bRW )
(R j j 0
j=1
n
X N
X
= E u 1 + (Re R)j b RW0 + e R) a .
(R
j j j
j=1 j=1
Differentiate V (W0) twice with respect to W0
n
X
V 0(W 0) = E u0(W
f )R 1 +
1
e R) b
(R j j
j=1
2
n
X
e R) b
V 00(W0) = E u00(W
f )R2 1 +
1 ( Rj j .
j=1
Relating u00(W
f ) with u0(W
1
f ) using eq (3), we obtain
1
h Pn i
RE u0 (W
f )R
1
e
1 + j=1(Rj R)j b R
V 00(W 0) = = V 0(W0).
a + bRW0 a + bRW0
Combining the results
V 0(W0) a
00 = + bW0.
V (W0) R
Formulation for finding the optimal portfolio
Let be the weight of the riskfree asset so that the wealth invested in risky
assets is W0 (1 ). Let bj be the weight of risky asset j within W0(1 ) so that
Xn
bj = 1. The random wealth W f at the end of the investment period is
j=1
f )]
max E[u(W
{,bj }
where
n
X
f
W = W0 (1 + rf ) + W0 (1 )bj (1 + rej )
j=1
n
X
= W0 1 + rf + (1 ) bj rej
j=1
subject to
n
X
bj = 1.
j=1
Lagrangian formulation
n
X
f )] + 1
max E[u(W bj .
{,bj ,} j=1
First order conditions give
n
X
E u0(W
f )W r
0 f bj rej = 0 (1)
j=1
h i
E 0 f
u (W )W0(1 )rej = , j = 1, 2, , n, (2)
n
X
bj = 1. (3)
j=1
n
X
From eq. (1), E[u0(W
f )r ]
f = E u0(W
f) bj rej ,
j=1
E[u0(W
f )(re r )] = 0
j f
or equivalently,
n
X
E u0 W0 1 + rf + (1 ) b`(re` rf ) (rej rf ) = 0,
`=1
j = 1, 2, , n. (4)
Exponential utility