Modern Skepticism

bias & the informed consensus

Reed Esau
21-Mar-2008
Modern Skepticism

Respect for reliable

evidence
Avoiding the traps of
faulty reasoning
Traps?
Cognitive Bias
 Our brains arent
wired for objectivity

They are wired

for adaption
& survival
Cognitive biases are instances of
evolved mental behavior

Mental shortcuts
that can enable
faster* decisions
or reduce distraction
*but not necessarily the best
 An Experiment
Four empty
wine bottles

Same wine goes

into all bottles;
re-cork

Visible stickers
ranging $5-90

A taste test with

friends!
Expected Results?

More expensive wine

reported to taste better

Not terribly surprising

Lot of noise in this test

 Can we remove the
noise?
Can we measure what people actually
experience, rather than what they say
they experience?
Functional MRI
 The basic idea

Taste A Hear B

See C Touch D
This has been done
Caltech & Stanford Teams

Expectations &
effectiveness of medication

Why are generics less effective

than name-brand drugs?
 What would we expect?

The brain reacts to the wine in consistent

manner, no matter its price
- or -
Subjects consistently experienced more
pleasure with the expensive wine
Its the latter!
 Whats going on?

Expectations shape our experience of

the world -- what we taste, see and hear

The cortex is cooking

the books by adjusting
its inputs to sensory data
Interesting Implications
We experience the
world not as it is but
rather how we
expect it to be.

Evidence that our

brains arent wired
for objectivity
But what does this have
to do with skepticism?
 A big part of being a skeptic is
compensating for our biases

Our expectations are yet

another of these biases

To deny or ignore them is

to risk deluding yourself
 Forer Effect

Tendency to
consider vague
descriptions of
personality to
be accurate.
 Confirmation Bias
When interpreting new information...
Emphasizing that which confirms
ones preconceptions
Ignoring that which contradicts
Ignorance more frequently
begets confidence than does
knowledge

Charles Darwin
Dunning-Kruger
Effect
 those who have little
knowledge tend to think
that they know more
than they do
 others who have much
more knowledge tend to
think that they know less
 It gets worse!
Incompetent individuals...

tend to overestimate their own level of skill

fail to recognize genuine skill in others

fail to recognize the extremity of their

inadequacy
 Bias blind spot

The tendency
not to
compensate for
ones own
biases
World of Pain
How to avoid these biases?

Study and talk about them

Review you own beliefs
Understand methods to avoid bias
Build upon expertise of others
Building upon expertise?

Understand the value and limitations of

The Informed Consensus

Informed Consensus

Body of expert opinion

Theory Test Review Repeat

 What is an expert?
An expert is someone who knows some
of the worst mistakes that can be made in
his subject, and how to avoid them.

Werner Karl Heisenberg

 Examples of
Informed Consensus
Bulletproof IC

Relativity

Common Descent
 Strong IC
Man landed on the
moon
Man contributing to
climate change
Natural selection
Smoking increases risk
of heart disease
Age of earth is 4.54By
 Other ICs
Red wine is healthy
Government reports
Accident investigations
ETs havent visited Earth
Lance Armstrong won the Tour de
France seven consecutive times
 Failures of
Informed Consensus
Pre-Copernican
Astronomy
Copernican Heliocentrism
Plate tectonics
 Disputes of the IC
Apollo moon landings were a hoax
Vaccines cause autism
Solar variation accounts for climate
change
Most cancers are viral-based
WTC7 was a controlled demolition
How to evaluate?
 Crafting cohesive
alternative theories
 Crafting cohesive Nitpicking - scoring
alternative theories rhetorical points
 Crafting cohesive Nitpicking - scoring
alternative theories rhetorical points

Considering Totality of
evidence
 Crafting cohesive Nitpicking - scoring
alternative theories rhetorical points

Considering Totality of Cherry-picking &

evidence anomaly-hunting
 Crafting cohesive Nitpicking - scoring
alternative theories rhetorical points

Considering Totality of Cherry-picking &

evidence anomaly-hunting

Engaging critics
 Crafting cohesive Nitpicking - scoring
alternative theories rhetorical points

Considering Totality of Cherry-picking &

evidence anomaly-hunting

Engaging critics Preaching to converted

 Crafting cohesive Nitpicking - scoring
alternative theories rhetorical points

Considering Totality of Cherry-picking &

evidence anomaly-hunting

Engaging critics Preaching to converted

Adapting to course of
debate
 Crafting cohesive Nitpicking - scoring
alternative theories rhetorical points

Considering Totality of Cherry-picking &

evidence anomaly-hunting

Engaging critics Preaching to converted

Adapting to course of Repeating discredited

debate claims
 Crafting cohesive Nitpicking - scoring
alternative theories rhetorical points

Considering Totality of Cherry-picking &

evidence anomaly-hunting

Engaging critics Preaching to converted

Adapting to course of Repeating discredited

debate claims

legit minority opinion

maverick
 Crafting cohesive Nitpicking - scoring
alternative theories rhetorical points

Considering Totality of Cherry-picking &

evidence anomaly-hunting

Engaging critics Preaching to converted

Adapting to course of Repeating discredited

debate claims

legit minority opinion

crank
maverick
Justify crank position

Your science aint perfect;

consensus has failed in the past

Looser standards for evidence

Theres a conspiracy!
 As a skeptic, when talking
about weird things
Dont use a paternalistic or mocking tone
Steer towards empirical and testable claims
Explore mundane explanations

Ask questions and listen carefully

Bring science into the discussion
 Finally
Modern Skepticism isnt a set of beliefs

Its about avoiding faulty reasoning

Its about recognizing and compensating for bias

Its about respecting good evidence

Thank You!