Forecasting Electricity Demand in Marawi City via Time Series Mathematical Modelling

Isnihaya H. S. Magumpara1
Adviser: Engr. Jan Mellrick D. Dugenio, M.Sc.1

1
Science, Math and Technology Department, Philippine Science High School- Central Mindanao Campus, Nangka,
Balo-i, Lanao del Norte, Philippines

ABSTRACT

This paper presents an univariate model to forecast very short term demand for a large
electricity distributor in Marawi City, Lanao del Sur Electrricital Corporation (LASURECO) by
employing three time series modelling equations namely Auto Regressive Integrated Moving
Average (ARIMA), Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES), and Additive Holt-Winters Method
(AHW) with the help of SPSS software based on the past 10 year monthly total electricity
consumption (2007-2016) of the place.

The 2006-2016 total monthly electricity consumption data gathered from LASURECO was
tabulated in SPSS spread sheet. The plot showed that the behavior of the data is non-stationary, so
it was converted into stationary form by differencing method. Using their Auto Correlation
Function (ACF) plot, the lags provided the coefficients to be used in the three equations. First, it
was substituted to the ARIMA equation followed by SES and lastly by AHW. Their Bayesian
Information Criterion values were then plotted.

In- sample forecasts reveal that the forecasts made by AHW is superior, followed by
ARIMA (0, 1, 2) (1, 0, 0) and SES. The ARIMA model predicted that the yearly total electricity
demand to be used in 2017-2021 will be about 38.3 Million kW (for 2017), 38.7 Million kW (for
2018), 38.8 Million kW (for 2019), 38.9 Million kW (for 2020) and 39 Million kW (for 2021). It
also predicted that about 200,000 kW 430, 000 kW will be used in monthly basis. Overall, the
model performs well, and it does not seem to produce significant deterioration of the forecasts as
the time lags. The study can have a further improvement, especially in obtaining the amounts of
electrical machineries, electrical and money budget, and NPC (National Power Corporation)
electricity bank needed by LASURECO using the predicted data.

Keywords: stationary; differencing, modeling, forecasting, power demand