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Hrniarska Ves
district Detva, region Banskobystrick, Slovakia
Contractor Supplier
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 Summary .............................................................................................................................................. 3
6 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................................... 36
7 Acronyms ........................................................................................................................................... 37
8 Glossary ............................................................................................................................................. 38
1 SUMMARY
This report estimates electricity yield from a 999.69 kWp (DC) photovoltaic power plant, located in Hrniarska
Ves, district Detva, region Banskobystrick, Slovakia. The power plant is located in a flat terrain.
PV power plant
The total installed capacity of the power plant is 999.69 kWp (totally 4254 photovoltaic polycrystalline modules
Renesola JC 235M/24Bb-a with performance 235 Wp). The AC output at the feeding point to the grid will be
lower since there are losses associated with energy transformation in several stages. These losses comprise
losses due to PV conversion, mismatch, interconnections, dirt, dust, bird droppings, soiling, inter-row shading,
inverter losses and AC cabling and power transformer losses. Breakdown of losses is presented in Chapters 3.3
to 3.4 and is summarized in Chapter 5.1.
PV modules are installed on the Ekosolar structures manufactured by Hesco s.r.o. inclined at 30 South) on the
flat terrain. For the designed power plant, relative row spacing is approximately 2.2. Losses due to near shading
are relatively high due this small row spacing (high shading angle) and it is estimated that approximately 3.0%
will be lost due to near shading (Chapter 3.5). Since crystalline silicon modules are sensitive to partial shading
and losses depend on the topology of module interconnections the estimate of losses in winter may have higher
uncertainty.
Technical availability of the power plant (i.e. excluding downtime due to maintenance, failures, and grid
blackouts) is considered to be 99%, i.e. annual electricity losses of 1% are expected. Validity of this assumption
depends on the operation routines, maintenance contracts or grid stability. PV plant is under operation since
January 2011.
Combined effect of the three uncertainties is 8.5% for the first year, 5.5% for a period of operation of 15 years
and 5.4% for a period of operation of 25years and this uncertainty defines the P90 values (see the table
below).
Average (P50) and conservative (P90) estimates of PV power production, assuming annual degradation of
conversion efficiency of PV modules and combined uncertainty, are summarised in the table below.
When considering the annual reduction of conversion efficiency of PV modules, the annual PV power
production is calculated as follows: 0.8% performance degradation for the first year and 0.5% for the remaining
years, for a period of 25 years.
* Total uncertainty combines: (i) uncertainty of solar radiation and PV estimate and (ii) uncertainty due to interannual
variability. The production estimate assumes annual reduction of conversion efficiency of PV modules 0.8% for the first year
and 0.5% for the remaining years for a period of 15 years.
At the end of the first year of the PV power plant operation, the P50 (average) yearly power plant production is
estimated at 1166 MWh. Assuming all three combined uncertainties, the minimum expected production at P90 in
the first year is 1066 MWh.
For a period of 15 years, and the installed capacity 999.69 kWp, the average electricity production at P50 is
estimated to 1126 MWh per year and performance ratio of the power plant 76.0%. When considering combined
uncertainty of all elements, it is expected at P90 that electricity production of the power plant over 15 years
exceeds 1064 MWh per year in average.
Similarly for a period of 25 years, the average electricity production at P50 is estimated to 1098 MWh per year
and performance ratio of the power plant 74.2%. When considering combined uncertainty of all elements, it is
expected at P90 that electricity production of the power plant over 25 years exceeds 1039 MWh per year in
average.
Possible man-induced climate change or extreme natural events are not considered in this study.
Fig. 3: Position of the site in the context of Global Horizontal Irradiation of Slovakia
GHI annual average for 1994-2010 (SolarGIS 2013 GeoModel Solar, Google Maps 2013 Google)
Fig. 4 shows:
(a) Change of the day length and solar zenith angle during a year. The local day length (time when sun is above
the horizon) is slightly affected by local terrain horizon.
(b) Change of the sunpath over a year. Terrain horizon is drawn in grey colour and has negligible shading effect
on solar radiation. Horizon given by PV modules inclined at 30 is drawn by blue colour. Black dots show hours
in True Solar Time. Blue labels indicate Central European Time (EET: UTC + 1 hours).
Technological components of the photovoltaic power plant are properly selected and mutually matched. The
connection and a number of panels are chosen with respect to nominal power and recommended operation
values of currents and voltages, but summary of connected performance slightly exceeded recommended direct
current (DC) input power of inverters. This may lead to some losses during sunny days with high irradiation and
low temperatures, because inverters will not be able to consume produced over-performance. Positive tolerance
in output performance of modules ensures minimum installed power of 999.69 kWp. Due to varying positive
nominal power of modules, however, it can be expected that real installed power in the start-up will be higher.
Solution with decentralized inverters ensures lower demands on direct current (DC) cabling and lower losses in
DC circuits. It also increases the reliability of the PV power plant as a whole, because in case of failure of one or
more inverters, electricity production can continue without interruption. The disadvantage of the selected
topology is lower efficiency of inverters and higher demands on production data collection compared with high
power inverters used in photovoltaic power plants with central inverters concept.
SolarGIS is high-resolution global database of solar resource and meteo parameters, operated by GeoModel
Solar. Its geographical extent covers most of the globe between 60 North and South latitudes.
3.1 Satellite-derived solar radiation SolarGIS and validation of GHI with regional
measurements
Solar radiation is calculated by numerical models, which are parameterized by a set of inputs characterizing the
cloud transmittance, state of the atmosphere and terrain conditions. The methodology and related uncertainties
are described in several publications [1, 2, 3, 4, 5].
In SolarGIS approach, the clear-sky irradiance is calculated by the simplified SOLIS model [6]. This model
allows fast calculation of clear-sky irradiance from the set of input parameters. The Sun position is deterministic
parameter and it is described by the numerical models with satisfactory accuracy. Stochastic variability of clear-
sky atmospheric conditions is determined by changing concentrations of atmospheric constituents, namely
aerosols, water vapour and ozone. Global atmospheric data, representing these constituents, are routinely
calculated by world atmospheric data centres and delivered at a spatial resolution of about 125 km. The
calculation accuracy of the clear-sky irradiance is especially sensitive to the information about aerosols.
The key factor determining short-term variability of all-sky irradiance is clouds. Attenuation effect of clouds is
expressed by the means of a parameter called cloud index, which is calculated from the routine observations of
meteorological geostationary satellites. Spatial resolution of satellite data used in SolarGIS is about 4 x 5 km
and time step is 15 and 30 minutes. To retrieve all-sky irradiance in each time step, the clear-sky global
horizontal irradiance is coupled with cloud index.
The clouds are the most influencing factor, modulating clear-sky irradiance. Effect of clouds is calculated from
the Meteosat MFG and MSG satellite data ( EUMETSAT) in the form of cloud index (cloud transmittance). The
cloud index is derived by relating irradiance recorded by the satellite in four spectral channels and surface
albedo to the cloud optical properties. In SolarGIS, the modified calculation scheme Heliosat-2 has been
adopted to retrieve cloud optical properties from the satellite data. A number of improvements have been
introduced to better cope with specific situations such as snow, ice, or high albedo areas (arid zones and
deserts), and also with complex terrain.
In SolarGIS, the new generation aerosol data set representing Atmospheric Optical Depth (AOD) is used. This
data set is developed and regularly updated by MACC project ( ECMWF) [7]. Important feature of this AOD
data set is that it captures daily variability of aerosols and allows simulating more precisely the events with
extreme atmospheric load of aerosol particles. Thus it reduces uncertainty of instantaneous estimates of GHI
and especially DNI and allows for improved distribution of irradiance values [8]. It is to be noted that coverage of
high frequency (daily) aerosol data is limited to the period from 2003 onwards, the remaining years (1994 to
2002) are represented only by monthly longterm averages. In this report the new version of the MACC database,
released in year 2012, with improved quality and consistency is used.
Water vapour is also highly variable in space and time, but it has lower impact on the values of solar radiation,
compared to aerosols. The daily GFS and CFSR values ( NOAA NCEP) are used in SolarGIS, thus
representing the daily variability from 1994 to the present.
Ozone absorbs solar radiation at wavelengths shorter than 0.3 m, thus having negligible influence on the
broadband solar radiation.
Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) is calculated from Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) using modified Dirindex
model [9]. Diffuse irradiance for tilted surfaces is calculated by Perez model [10].
For Slovakia, the key solar parameters of the SolarGIS database are:
Operational calculation of irradiance at 15 minute time step (30-minute in period 1994 to 2004);
Primary spatial resolution is about 4x5 km in Central Europe. The shading effects of terrain and
elevation is enhanced by disaggregation of the satellite-based irradiance up to 90 metres using Digital
Elevation Model SRTM-3;
Period covered by database from 01/1994 onwards. This report represents 19 complete years from
01/1994 to 12/2012;
Primary parameters: Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI);
Data availability is higher than 99%, missing values are filled by statistical methods, i.e. there are no
gaps in the data;
The solar data are quality-controlled, validated, integrated and cleaned from the possible gaps. Tab. 1 shows
validation statistics for Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) and demonstrates a good match of satellite data with
data measured at the meteorological stations in the region. The average deviation of the annual estimate is
within the range of the 2.5% (3% for sites with unknown quality of ground-measured data).
Tab. 1 indicates that uncertainty of annual estimate of GHI from SolarGIS is little bit higher compared to the top-
quality and professionally maintained sensors, but better and more reliable than most of sensors currently
installed at the PV power plants. Benefit of using satellite data is their longterm radiometric stability, reliability
high data coverage, geographic availability at any location in the region, and quantified uncertainty.
Comparison of SolarGIS annual GHI values with regional measurements indicates that the difference is in the
range of uncertainty of ground measurements.
Absolute values of Bias are calculated for daytime hours only.
Tab. 1: Global horizontal irradiance quality indicators for selected validation sites.
Source: SHMI, CHMI, WRDC and IDMP.
Global Horizontal Bias Root Mean Square Deviation, RMSD
Irradiance, GHI
[W/m2] [%] hourly [%] daily [%] monthly [%]
Kishinev (MD) 3 0.9 16.7 7.5 1.9
Zagreb (HR) 5 1.7 19.2 8.1 3.2
Gospic (HR) 3 1.2 24.7 11.1 3.2
Thessaloniki (GR) 2 0.4 13.5 5.7 1.7
Gnovce (SK) -4.2 -1.6 26.3 12.5 3.2
Bratislava IDMP (SK) 7.5 3.0 19.2 9.7 4.2
Hurbanovo (SK) 4.5 1.6 21.3 10.8 4.7
Hradec Krlov (CZ) 3.6 1.5 22.2 10.0 3.2
Wien Hohe Warte (AT) 6.7 2.5 20.6 9.3 3.1
The recent IEA Task 36 data inter-comparison activity, led by University of Geneva, has independently
confirmed that SolarGIS is the best performing solar radiation database available on the market [11].
Air temperature stored in SolarGIS database is calculated from two principal data sources. SolarGIS algorithms
and Digital Elevation Model SRTM-30 have been used in the data post-processing. The following are the
features of the SolarGIS meteo database:
Sources of primary data (both are copyright of NOAA NCEP):
o CFSR (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis), years 1994 to 2009
o GFS (Global Forecast System), years 2010 to 2012
Parameters used for calculation for the site:
o Air temperature at 2 metres (dry bulb temperature), TEMP [C]
Original temporal resolution of 1 hour (CFSR) and 3 hours (GFS) is interpolated and harmonised to the
time step of 1 hour
Original spatial resolution of the primary parameters is 33 km (CFSR) and 50 km (GFS). Both data
resolutions are post-processed and recalculated to the spatial resolution of 1 km
The accuracy of air temperature was compared to the data from 4 meteorological stations in the region for a
period 1999-2009. The results of this comparison are presented in Tab. 2 and indicate very good match between
modelled and measured temperatures. Negative bias indicates higher measured temperature value in
comparison to the modelled one. For all the sites RMSE is considerably lower.
Tab. 2: Comparison of recorded and simulated air temperature at 2 meters for the closest meteo stations.
*Latitude and longitude and elevation of meteorological stations is approximate.
Simulations of the power plant and its components are carried out by SolarGIS PV model, which uses 15-minute
time series of solar radiation and air temperature data representing a period of 19 years (1994 to 2012).
The simulation of longterm, expected and minimum-achievable production is based on the technical
assumptions summarized in Tab. 3. In PV simulation, the energy losses can be classified in two groups:
Static: module surface pollution, losses in cables, and mismatch between PV modules
Dynamic: these losses depend on the irradiance/temperature conditions, which change over the day
and over the seasons.
Due to missing accurate information, occurrence of snow cover is only considered as an empirical value in the
longterm estimation.
More about the simulation procedure including background publications can be consulted at
http://solargis.info/doc/_docs/SolarGIS_pvPlanner_methods.pdf.
Tab. 3: Energy losses in the simulation of the expected and minimum power production
Photovoltaic power production has been calculated using numerical models developed or implemented by
GeoModel Solar. As described in Chapters 3.1 and 3.2, 15-minute time series of solar radiation and air
temperature data are used as inputs to the simulation of PV power production. Typical monthly and annual
energy losses and uncertainties are listed in Tab.3.
Inter-row shading of PV modules, mounted on the structures, was simulated taking into account sun geometry,
varying terrain properties and solar radiation data. The terminology used below is explained in Fig. 7. Absolute
row spacing (x3) is distance between the lowest parts of the two successive mounting structures (rows with
modules). Relative row spacing is defined as a ratio of absolute row spacing (x3) and the table width (x2) and
for the analysed power plant is about 2.2 what is considered as low value.
At the site, terrain is flat, without significant shading from the long-distance (terrain) horizon.
At the Hrniarska Ves site, the minimum sun height on 21 December at noon is 18.2. Due to relatively high
shading angles there will be considerable shading losses in winter time. (Fig. 8),
The estimation of the impact of the modules arrangement on the electricity yield of partially shadowed PV
modules is not a trivial task. A high number of factors need to be addressed to estimate the magnitude of these
effects, such as:
Energy yield reduction in modules themselves, the mismatch between non-uniformly shaded modules,
Characteristics of photovoltaic inverter (MPP tracking voltage window, the accuracy of MPP tracking in case
the I-V curve is distorted by shading),
Shape of particular shading pattern and its orientation in relation to electrical connection within the module
the orientation of strings.
The silicon-wafer based modules are very sensitive to partial shading. The loss in performance at partially
shaded c-Si photovoltaic modules in the rows can be nearly proportional to the loss at the most shaded PV cell
for the cells connected in series within the module, if proper counter-measures are not applied [20]. As a
consequence the cells near the ground can reduce the performance of the whole module considerably when
shaded. The standard technique to counterbalance the effect of shading is utilization of the bypass diodes
incorporated within module structure and proper topology of modules interconnections.
The analysed power plant is not fully optimised in regard to minimising shading losses due to relatively high
shading angle. Fig. 8 shows inter-row shading effect on electricity yield losses. Row length is expressed in
percentage of total length. For the period of the whole year, the inter-row shading losses are estimated to a
yearly average at 3.0%. In winter months (e.g. in December) the electrical losses at the bottom part of the table
(the most shaded part) may reach more than 50% for modules inclination angle of 30. In this regard the
performance of the bottom row will be reduced in comparison to the other rows.
4 LOCAL CLIMATE
Tab. 4 shows daily sums of Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) for each month with separate Diffuse Irradiation
(DIF) component. In the table also daily average of Air Temperature in 2 meters (TEMP) and average of
minimum and maximum (multiannual average of coldest and warmest day) in each month values for each month
are shown.
Tab. 4: Air temperature, global and diffuse horizontal irradiation - monthly values
Daily TEMP Daily Irradiation Monthly GHI
Average Minimum Maximum GHI DIF Minimum Maximum Average Share
[C] [C] [C] [kWh/m 2] [kWh/m 2] [kWh/m2] [kWh/m2] [kWh/m 2] [%]
Jan -2.2 -8.9 3.7 1.17 0.61 26 47 36 2.9
Feb -1.1 -7.8 4.6 1.96 0.96 34 71 55 4.4
Mar 3.2 -3.0 9.1 3.23 1.60 78 125 100 8.0
Apr 9.4 3.2 15.5 4.49 2.20 109 173 135 10.7
May 14.3 8.3 20.4 5.58 2.65 121 203 173 13.8
Jun 17.9 11.9 23.8 6.05 2.84 158 213 181 14.4
Jul 20.1 14.4 25.4 5.75 2.73 146 213 178 14.2
Aug 19.5 13.7 24.5 5.20 2.32 130 186 161 12.8
Sep 14.3 9.7 19.6 3.57 1.75 74 130 107 8.5
Oct 8.8 2.1 15.6 2.28 1.16 55 86 71 5.6
Nov 3.7 -2.6 10.0 1.19 0.71 29 43 36 2.8
Dec -1.4 -9.0 4.8 0.77 0.51 20 29 24 1.9
YEAR 8.9 - - 3.44 1.67 1142 1396 1258 100.0
The modern satellite-based databases have high spatial and temporal resolution, and they are considered as
the mainstream source of solar information for solar energy applications - for prefeasibility studies, project
optimisation, financing, and for operation and management of solar power plants. In this context, high quality
ground measurements still maintain their important role for validation and maintaining accuracy of satellite-
based numerical models.
Tab. 5: Uncertainty of the estimate of longterm yearly average of Global Horizontal Irradiation:
comparison of SolarGIS calculation, used in this report, to other four data sources
satellite
NASA SSE 110 km x 110 km monthly 1983 2005 1143
+ model
ground
Meteonorm 7.0 Interpolation monthly 1981 2000 1232
(+ satellite)
monthly
PVGIS/CMSAF satellite 4 km x 5 km 1998 2011 1241.85
(hourly)
The objective assessment of the uncertainty of solar resource estimate can only be based on a detailed
understanding of the achievable accuracy of the solar radiation models and their data inputs (satellite,
atmospheric and other data), which has to be confronted by an extensive data validation experience. The
second important source of knowledge is understanding of accuracy and quality issues of ground instruments,
related measurement practices, and quality control procedures.
The satellite-based SolarGIS database shows very good match with the quality-controlled ground
measurements (Chapter 3.1), showing very low RMSD, bias, and representative distribution of values. This
precision is a result of high accuracy cloud modelling and the use of operationally calculated atmospheric data,
which significantly improves estimated day-by-day variability of solar irradiance and improves simulation
accuracy of solar energy systems.
Considering all the factors involved in solar radiation modelling, the uncertainty of the annual GHI
estimate from SolarGIS database for the power plant site is 3.0%, which is very close to the uncertainty
of the ground-mounted radiometric instruments.
The values in Fig. 9 and Tab. 6 and 7 show global irradiation received by south-facing PV modules inclined at an
angle of 30. The monthly averages of GTI are complemented by minimum and maximum monthly sums for the
period of last 19 years (1994 - 2012).
10
Reflected average
9 Direct tilted average
Daily sum of global tilted irradiation [kWh/m 2]
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
The expected average (P50 value) of yearly sum of Global Tilted Irradiation is 1481 kWh/m2.
According to the expert analysis, for annual global in-plane irradiation, uncertainty of the annual estimate is
3.4%. If combined with interannual variability (annual value 6.6%), the resulting value of P90 annual
uncertainty for GTI is 7.4%.
Thus, it is expected at 90% probability (conservative estimate, P90), that longterm yearly value of GTI
exceeds 1372 kWh/m2.
The annual and monthly energy output from the photovoltaic power plant is calculated from 19 years time series
of solar irradiance and temperature. The magnitude and uncertainty of the conversion losses is explained in
Chapter 3.4.
Availability is an empirical parameter that considers occasional energy losses due to complete shutdown of the
power plant, which may occur during accidental failures, grid blackouts and maintenance operations.
Occasionally, shutdown may be initiated also by the electrical utility. In reference to other projects installed in
Europe, 99% availability (i.e. annual energy losses 1%) can be considered as a "good practice", with uncertainty
0.7%. Validity of this assumption strongly depends on the operation routines, maintenance contracts, grid
stability and under less favourable conditions it may be considered as too optimistic. The technical availability is
shown separately since its nature is different from the system performance.
Tab. 8 shows breakdown of energy losses, at the level of annual summary, providing an insight into the
power plant performance, without considering efficiency degradation of PV modules. It must be stressed that
blue rows in the tables refer to unit losses of global irradiation expressed in [kWh/m 2] while the rest are electrical
losses incurred in the system expressed in [kWh/kWp]. Such concept simplifies presentation of the results.
Tab. 8: Conversion stages, energy losses, and performance ratio at the level of the PV system.
Losses of solar radiation are blue [kWh/m 2]; electrical losses [kWh/kWp] in the PV system are black.
Energy output Energy loss Uncertainty Performance ratio
Energy conversion stage
GTI [kWh/m 2] [kWh/m 2] Partial
and related losses [%] [%] Cumulative [%]
PVOUT [kWh/kWp] [kWh/kWp] [%]
Dirt, dust and soiling 1387 -28 -2.0 1.0 98.0 93.6
Conversion of irradiation to DC in the modules 1291 -96 -6.9 3.0 93.1 87.2
Electrical losses due inter-row shading 1253 -39 -3.0 1.5 97.0 84.6
Mismatch and cabling in DC section 1240 -13 -1.0 0.7 99.0 83.7
Transformer and AC cabling losses 1187 -18 -1.5 0.5 98.5 80.1
Specific theoretical energy output of the Hrniarska Ves PV power plant, considering 99% technical
availability, is estimated at 1175 kWh/kWp, with performance ratio of 79.3%. Combined uncertainty of this
estimate is 5.2 and this value constitutes the uncertainty of the GTI estimate (3.4%) and the uncertainty in the
energy conversion steps of the PV system (which totals to 4.0%).
It is important to note that most of energy losses are variable in time; they are determined by a season of the
year, time of a day, weather conditions, and other effects. Losses due to atmospheric pollution (aerosols) may
have seasonal pattern, and in a short-term they may change rapidly, occasionally having strong impact. Soiling
of modules due to permanent presence of dirt may affect the power plant performance in the longterm.
Attentive operation and maintenance of the power plant may partially prevent losses in Steps 4, 5, 9 and 12, as
described in Chapter 3.3.
Fig. 11 and Tabs. 9 and 10 show theoretical solar electricity production and performance ratio from the PV
power plant for each month. These values do not consider performance degradation of PV modules during
their lifetime. In winter months the production is degraded by increased inter-row shading (grey part of monthly
bars on Fig. 11). Tab. 9 shows monthly values of specific electricity yield in kWh per 1 kWp. Average electricity
production (at P50 probability) is complemented with absolute minimum and maximum monthly sums, which
have been identified in the time series of SolarGIS data within the last 19 years. For demonstrating the extreme
power production over this historical period, annual PV power production for the best (2003) and the worst
(2010) years is shown, monthly minima and maxima represent extremes found for individual month in 19 years
period.
9
Loss by snow
Loss by inter-row shading 95
8
Daily specific No Loss by inter-row AC power output
DaysInMon Specific PV out No AC power output Loss by snow AC power
PR Min
shading shading Minimum/Maximum
Daily AC power output [kWh/kWp]
7 th shading
Performance Ratio
Jan 31 57.824 1.865 0.518 1.35 0.10 64.8 85 0.531
Fig. 11: Specific PV electricity production from a system per 1 kWp (kWh/kWp) and performance ratio
The average theoretical PV power production (at P50) is estimated at 1175 kWh/kWp per year with
performance ratio 79.3%. Tab. 9 shows also the share of monthly PV production relative to the yearly sum. In
blue numbers the total production of the power plant in MWh is shown, assuming installed capacity 999.69 kWp.
The values in the table are mathematically rounded.
Tab. 10 presents calculation of P90 probability of exceedance considering: (i) uncertainty of solar radiation
estimate and (ii) uncertainty of the PV performance model. The P90 values show the minimum expected power
production with 90% probability of exceedance at the start-up, thus not considering the PV module degradation
over the lifetime of PV power plant.
The values in the column PV estimate uncertainty ranges from 7.7% to 20.2%, which results from monthly
uncertainty of the GTI estimate (3.4% annually, Tab. 7) and PV model uncertainty of about 4.0%. Yearly
uncertainty of PV estimate is 5.2%.
Important note: minimum/maximum monthly production is calculated for months within the data history 1994 -
2012 with lowest/highest solar radiation. Minimum/maximum annual power production is calculated from most
and least sunny years within the available history. Thus summary of minimum/maximum months does not match
minimum/maximum yearly statistics.
Important note: annual uncertainty is smaller than individual monthly uncertainty values. Monthly P90 values
do not sum up to the annual P90 value.
Fig. 12 shows distribution of daily electricity production in each month. It is notable that Hrniarska Ves project
has very good potential of solar energy utilisation with relative stable electricity production from March to
September.
Fig. 12: Distribution of daily sums of specific electricity production at the Hrniarska Ves power plant
In this study a total capacity of photovoltaic modules 999.69 kWp is considered. The modules rating given by the
label on the back reflects the Standard Test Conditions. Working conditions of modules very rarely resemble
STC conditions and the DC power output will be limited because of elevated temperature. Considering power
production values averaged over 15-minute intervals, Fig. 13 shows that only in March and April the averaged
power production of 900 W/kWp can be exceeded, but this happens in limited number of occurrences. At the
level of minute or second instantaneous power production instances, threshold of 900 W/kWp can be exceeded
more frequently.
Fig. 14 shows hourly probability of occurrences of PV power production. The power production values in the
graphs do not consider ageing of the modules.
Weather changes in cycles and has also stochastic nature. Therefore annual solar radiation in each year can
deviate from the longterm average in the range of few percent. The estimation of the interannual variability
below shows the magnitude of this change. The uncertainty of prediction is highest if only one single year is
considered, but when averaged for a longer period, weather oscillations even out and approximate to the
longterm average.
Even though the maximum and minimum values characterising the oscillations of weather are known from the
historical data, the available amount of data may not well represent the climate and its evolution in future.
Therefore, to provide an estimate for future 20 or more years, it is better to apply statistical approach,
considering, in the longterm, the normal distribution of the annual sums. In this report, the uncertainty from
weather variability is calculated by multiplying variability with a number 1.28155 for PV power output over 19
years.
The interannual variability is calculated from the unbiased standard deviation of PV power output (tilt of 30)
over 19 years, considering, in the longterm, the normal distribution of the annual sums (Fig. 15).
1400
Average specific
Year PV Output
VP Out range
PV up
Out
Yearly
range
Average
dn PV Out
1350 1994 1187 1125 124 1187 1352
Annual specific PV out [kWh/kWp]
Fig. 15: Annual specific PV power output for the plane of the modules in period 1994 2012,
including average (colour line) and standard deviation (colour band) [kWh/kWp]
Tab. 11 shows values of PV power output that should be exceeded at P90 for a consecutive number of years.
The interannual variability (var) for a number of years (n) is calculated from the standard deviation (stdev):
stdev
varn
n
The uncertainty characterised by 90% probability of exceedance, is calculated from the variability (varn),
multiplying it with 1.28155.
Tab. 11: Uncertainty from interannual variability and value of annual sum of PV power output
produced by 30 tilted modules which is expected to be exceeded with 90% probability in the period
of 1 to 10, 15 and 25 years.
Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 25
Variability [%] 5.2 3.7 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.0
Uncertainty P(90) [%] 6.7 4.7 3.9 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.3
Minimum specific PV
1096 1120 1130 1136 1140 1143 1146 1147 1149 1150 1155 1160
output, P(90) [kWh/kWp]
Tab. 11 shows consequences of interannual variability if PV power output for different number of consecutive
years is estimated. Few examples how this information can be interpreted:
In any individual year, it is expected at 90% probability that annual PV power output exceeds value of
1096 kWh/kWp. In other words, it is expected that approximately once a ten years the annual PV power
output sum is lower than 1096 kWh/kWp.
Within a period of three consecutive years, it is expected at P90 that average annual PV power output
exceeds value of 1130 kWh/kWp;
Within a period of fifteen years, it is expected at 90% confidence that average PV power output exceeds
1155 kWh/kWp; for 25 years this expectancy is 1160 kWh/kWp.
It is to be noted that prediction of the future power production is based on the analysis of historical data. Future
weather changes may include longterm weather cycles, man-induced effects or large volcanic eruptions, which
may have slight impact on this prediction.
Based on the existing scientific knowledge [26, 27], an effect of extreme volcano eruptions, with an emission of
large amount of stratospheric aerosols, can be estimated on the example of Pinatubo event in 1991 (the second
largest volcano eruption in 20th century). It can be expected that in such a case, the annual PV power output in
the affected year may decrease by 2% or more, compared to the longterm average.
Theoretical average (P50) specific electricity yield, assuming 99% technical availability, is 1175 kWh/kWp
(Chapters 5.1 and 5.2). For the PV power plant this represents an average yield of 1175 MWh per year under
theoretical assumption that there is no reduction of the PV module conversion efficiency.
Prediction of electricity production of the PV power plant for a period of 15 years can be based only on a
simplified assumption of linear degradation (ageing) of nominal power (conversion efficiency) of PV modules. In
the calculation below, the annual degradation rate of 0.8% in the first year and 0.5% in the following years is
considered (see Chapter 3.4, step 12).
Taking into account uncertainty of the estimate (Tab. 12 and 13) and uncertainty from interannual variability,
which reduces in time (Tab. 11), a conservative scenario P90 could be taken into consideration.
Tab. 12: Estimation of P50 and P90 yearly electricity production from the PV power plant
during the lifecycle of 15 years.
End Combined Specific yield Expected yield PR Degradation
Year of year uncertainty P50 P90 P50 P90 at P50 rate
[ %] [kWh/kWp] [kWh/kWp] [MWh] [MWh] [%] [%]
8.5 1175 1075 1175 1075 79.3
1 2011 8.5 1166 1067 1166 1066 78.7 0.8
2 2012 7.1 1160 1078 1160 1078 78.3 0.5
3 2013 6.5 1154 1079 1154 1079 77.9 0.5
4 2014 6.2 1149 1077 1148 1077 77.5 0.5
5 2015 6.0 1143 1074 1142 1074 77.1 0.5
6 2016 5.9 1137 1070 1137 1070 76.8 0.5
7 2017 5.8 1131 1066 1131 1065 76.4 0.5
8 2018 5.7 1126 1061 1125 1061 76.0 0.5
9 2019 5.7 1120 1056 1120 1056 75.6 0.5
10 2020 5.6 1114 1052 1114 1051 75.2 0.5
11 2021 5.6 1109 1047 1109 1046 74.9 0.5
12 2022 5.6 1103 1042 1103 1042 74.5 0.5
13 2023 5.5 1098 1037 1098 1037 74.1 0.5
14 2024 5.5 1092 1032 1092 1032 73.7 0.5
15 2025 5.5 1087 1027 1087 1027 73.4 0.5
Total 5.5 16890 15960 16884 15955 76.0 -
Average - 1126 1064 1126 1064 - -
Considering a period of 15 years, the annual average specific electricity yield is 1126 kWh/kWp. For the installed
capacity of 999.69 kWp, the average total yield of the power plant is estimated to 1126 MWh per year.
Tab. 13: Estimation of P50 and P90 yearly electricity production from the PV power plant
during the lifecycle of 25 years
End Combined Specific yield Expected yield PR Degradation
Year of year uncertainty P50 P90 P50 P90 at P50 rate
[ %] [kWh/kWp] [kWh/kWp] [MWh] [MWh] [%] [%]
8.5 1175 1075 1175 1075 79.3
1 2011 8.5 1166 1067 1166 1066 78.7 0.8
2 2012 7.1 1160 1078 1160 1078 78.3 0.5
3 2013 6.5 1154 1079 1154 1079 77.9 0.5
4 2014 6.2 1149 1077 1148 1077 77.5 0.5
5 2015 6.0 1143 1074 1142 1074 77.1 0.5
6 2016 5.9 1137 1070 1137 1070 76.8 0.5
7 2017 5.8 1131 1066 1131 1065 76.4 0.5
8 2018 5.7 1126 1061 1125 1061 76.0 0.5
9 2019 5.7 1120 1056 1120 1056 75.6 0.5
10 2020 5.6 1114 1052 1114 1051 75.2 0.5
11 2021 5.6 1109 1047 1109 1046 74.9 0.5
12 2022 5.6 1103 1042 1103 1042 74.5 0.5
13 2023 5.5 1098 1037 1098 1037 74.1 0.5
14 2024 5.5 1092 1032 1092 1032 73.7 0.5
15 2025 5.5 1087 1027 1087 1027 73.4 0.5
16 2026 5.5 1081 1022 1081 1022 73.0 0.5
17 2027 5.5 1076 1017 1076 1017 72.6 0.5
18 2028 5.5 1071 1012 1070 1012 72.3 0.5
19 2029 5.4 1065 1007 1065 1007 71.9 0.5
20 2030 5.4 1060 1002 1060 1002 71.6 0.5
21 2031 5.4 1055 997 1054 997 71.2 0.5
22 2032 5.4 1049 993 1049 992 70.8 0.5
23 2033 5.4 1044 988 1044 987 70.5 0.5
24 2034 5.4 1039 983 1039 983 70.1 0.5
25 2035 5.4 1034 978 1033 978 69.8 0.5
Total 5.4 27464 25983 27456 25975 74.2 -
Average - 1099 1039 1098 1039 - -
For a period of 25 years of possible lifetime of the power plant the annual average specific electricity yield is
1099 kWh/kWp. For the installed capacity of 999.69 kWp, the average total yield of the power plant is
estimated to 1098 MWh per year.
Since not only the modules are subject to ageing, the overall performance of the power plant depends also on
cabling and performance of inverters during the planned 15 or 25 years. Another possible source of uncertainty
is non-uniform degradation of individual modules which results in higher mismatch losses.
A number of factors are determining uncertainty of the estimate of solar electricity production. In this Chapter we
characterize integrated effect of all possible negative impacts thus identifying the conservative scenario of
energy production, or P90. We show a relative uncertainty of the power production estimate in the first year and
for a period of 15 years. All uncertainties are presented at P90, in other words we estimate annual electricity
production that should be exceeded with 90% probability. With the present knowledge, the following two
components of the uncertainty and their propagation in the simulation chain are considered:
Uncertainty of the estimate of the PV electricity output: the combined uncertainty of the PV power plant
performance is 5.2% (Tab. 8); this value aggregates the uncertainty of the GTI (3.4%) and the combined
uncertainty of the energy conversion steps (4.0%).
Interannual variability of PV electricity output due to changing solar radiation and temperature: annual
electrical output from a PV power plant in a particular year at P90 is 6.7% from the longterm average. This
uncertainty for a period of 15 and 25 years decreases to about 1.7% and 1.3% respectively (Tab. 11).
The three uncertainties combine for the power production estimate in a first year (Tab. 14) and over the period of
15 years (Tab. 15) and alternatively 25 years (Tab. 16). The conversion efficiency degradation scenario, as
shown in Tab. 12 and 13 is assumed.
Tab. 14: Average (P50) and minimum (P90) expected energy yield at the end of the first year
of the operation of the PV power plant.
Annual PV power production Uncertainty Combined Specific yield Total yield
end of first year [%] uncertainty [%] [kWh/kWp] [MWh]
P90 value considering uncertainty of the estimate 5.2 5.2 1105 1105
P90 value considering also interannual variability in year 2011 6.7 8.5 1067 1066
Tab. 15: Average (P50) and minimum (P90) expected energy yield for a period of 15 years
of the PV power plant operation.
Annual PV power production Uncertainty Combined Specific yield Total yield
over 15 years [%] uncertainty [%] [kWh/kWp] [MWh]
P90 value considering uncertainty of the estimate 5.2 5.2 1067 1067
P90 value considering also interannual variability in 15 years 1.7 5.5 1064 1064
Tab. 16: Average (P50) and minimum (P90) expected energy yield for a period of 25 years
of the PV power plant operation.
Annual PV power production Uncertainty Combined Specific yield Total yield
over 25 years [%] uncertainty [%] [kWh/kWp] [MWh]
P90 value considering uncertainty of the estimate 5.2 5.2 1041 1041
P90 value considering also interannual variability in 25 years 1.3 5.4 1039 1039
At the end of the first year of the PV power plant operation, the average specific PV power production is
estimated at 1166 kWh/kWp. Assuming all combined uncertainties at P90, a minimum specific production
1067 kWh/kWp can be expected with 90% confidence.
Similarly, assuming a period of 15 years, the average specific PV production is 1126 kWh/kWp. For combined
P90 uncertainties, it can be expected that minimum expected specific production of 1064 kWh/kWp is reached
per year.
Assuming alternative period of 25 years of PV plant operation, the average specific PV production is
1099 kWh/kWp. For combined P90 uncertainties, it can be expected that minimum expected specific production
of 1039 kWh/kWp is reached per year.
Weather variability is estimated from the analysis of historical data, and this study does not take into account
any prediction of man-induced climate change or extreme natural events.
6 CONCLUSIONS
The behaviour of all components of the PV power plant, as well as natural and accelerated changes in their
performance can only be better understood by implementation of the active monitoring and regular performance
assessment. This service is based on the numerical analysis of the monitored production data with simulations
of the expected and reference performance numbers based on real-time satellite and meteorological
observations. This approach ensures sustainable bankability of the information, enables fast identification of
failures, and supports operation, control, and maintenance.
Re-analysis of both monitored and simulated data time series over longer time intervals (e.g. one year) provides
means for an improved understanding of the degradation effects and in-depth appraisal of the technology
performance and maintenance routines.
Power plant is not well optimised regarding minimising inter-row shading losses with relative row spacing of
approx. 2.2. Modules are mounted in landscape position what help in minimising impact of shading of bottom
rows of modules. In ideal case all bottom shaded modules should be connected together independently from the
upper modules.
7 ACRONYMS
GHI Global Horizontal Irradiation, if integrated solar energy is assumed. Global Horizontal
Irradiance, if solar power values are discussed.
GTI Global Tilted Irradiation irradiation impinging to the plane of photovoltaic modules
defined by the tilt and azimuth.
DNI Direct Normal Irradiation, if integrated solar energy is assumed. Direct Normal Irradiance,
if solar power values are discussed.
DIF Diffuse Horizontal Irradiation, if integrated solar energy is assumed. Diffuse Horizontal
Irradiance, if solar power values are discussed
TEMP Air Temperature at 2 metres
8 GLOSSARY
Interannual variability Is derived from 19 years of data (1994 to 2012), and it is calculated from the unbiased
standard deviation of monthly and yearly summaries of DNI and GHI, multiplied by
number 1.28155. Thus interannual variability represents a range of values at 80%
probability of occurrence. The lower boundary of interannual variability represents
90% probability of exceedance, and it is also used for calculating the P90 value.
Monthly values of interannual variability indicate year-by-year instability of solar
radiation for each month. The yearly values give an idea of weather fluctuation when
comparing yearly DNI or GHI sums.
P50 value Best estimate or median value. For annual and monthly solar irradiation summaries it
is close to average, since multiyear distribution of solar radiation resembles closely
normal distribution.
P90 value Conservative estimate, assuming 90% probability of exceedance (with the 90%
probability the value should be exceeded). When assuming normal distribution, the
P90 value is also a lower boundary of the 80% probability of occurrence. P90 value
can be calculated by subtracting uncertainty from the P50 value.
Solar irradiance Solar power (instantaneous energy) falling on a unit area per unit time [W/m 2]. Solar
resource or solar radiation is used when considering both irradiance and irradiation.
Solar irradiation Amount of solar energy falling on a unit area over a stated time interval [Wh/m2].
9 LIST OF FIGURES
10 LIST OF TABLES
Tab. 1: Global horizontal irradiance quality indicators for selected validation sites. ................................... 11
Tab. 2: Comparison of recorded and simulated air temperature at 2 meters for the closest meteo stations... 12
Tab. 3: Energy losses in the simulation of the expected and minimum power production ............................. 13
Tab. 4: Air temperature, global and diffuse horizontal irradiation - monthly values ....................................... 19
Tab. 5: Uncertainty of the estimate of longterm yearly average of Global Horizontal Irradiation: ................... 20
Tab. 6: Global tilted irradiation received by PV modules inclined towards South at 30 ................................ 21
Tab. 7: Global tilted irradiation received by PV modules inclined at 30....................................................... 22
Tab. 8: Conversion stages, energy losses, and performance ratio at the level of the PV system. ................. 24
Tab. 9: Monthly statistics of PV electricity production ................................................................................. 27
Tab. 10: P50 and P90 monthly statistics of PV power production ............................................................ 27
Tab. 11: Uncertainty from interannual variability and value of annual sum of PV power output ................. 31
Tab. 12: Estimation of P50 and P90 yearly electricity production from the PV power plant ....................... 32
Tab. 13: Estimation of P50 and P90 yearly electricity production from the PV power plant ....................... 33
Tab. 14: Average (P50) and minimum (P90) expected energy yield at the end of the first year ................. 34
Tab. 15: Average (P50) and minimum (P90) expected energy yield for a period of 15 years .................... 34
Tab. 16: Average (P50) and minimum (P90) expected energy yield for a period of 25 years .................... 34
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12 SUPPORT INFORMATION
Primary business of GeoModel Solar is in providing support to the site qualification, planning, financing and
operation of solar energy systems. We are committed to increase efficiency and reliability of solar technology by
expert consultancy and access to our databases and customer-oriented services.
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solar energy and photovoltaics. We strive for development and operation of new generation high-resolution
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Members of the team have long-term experience in R&D and are active in the following international initiatives:
International Energy Agency, Solar Heating and Cooling Program, Task 46 Solar Solar Resource
Assessment and Forecasting,
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Considering the nature of climate fluctuations, interannual and longterm changes, as well as the uncertainty of
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GeoModel Solar has done maximum possible for the assessment of climate conditions based on the best
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