IV INGENIEROS CONSULTORES SUCURSAL COLOMBIA S.A.

2012 2013 2014

ESTADO DE SITUACIN FINANCIERA

Disponible/ Efectivo y equivalentes de efec 269,966,202 70,857,178 407,291,699

Inversiones temporales 32,684,462 422,112 439,410
Deudores clientes 753,830,494 1,825,504,498 2,870,226,820
Gstos pagados por anticipado
Inventarios 0 0 90,299,160
Total Activo Corriente 1,056,481,158 1,896,783,787 3,368,257,089
Propiedad, planta & Equipo 20,370,662 44,459,623 95,561,386
Depreciacin acumulada -1,979,419 -7,862,559 -24,339,396
Intangibles 776,636 1,238,914 3,233,312
Diferidos 0 789,019 0
Valorizaciones 0 0 0
Total Activo Largo Plazo 19,167,879 38,624,997 74,455,302
TOTAL ACTIVO 1,075,649,037 1,935,408,785 3,442,712,391

Obligaciones financieras 0 0 162,500,000

Proveedores 147,788,386 35,833,331 240,456,005
Cuentas por pagar 215,028,918 187,670,000 1,883,667,254
Impuestos, gravmenes y tasas 42,667,583 572,002,696 293,416,000
Obligaciones laborales 7,302,854 232,844,000 35,886,870
Pasivos estimados PROVISIONES 376,320,673 11,867,261 26,635,508
Diferidos 0 325,248,382 0
Otros pasivos 23,957,090 27,817,279 37,168,418
Total Pasivo Corriente 813,065,503 1,393,282,948 2,679,730,055
Obligaciones financieras a largo plazo 0 0 0
Total Pasivo No Corriente 0 0 0
TOTAL PASIVO 813,065,503 1,393,282,948 2,679,730,055

Capital social 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000

Superavit de capital 137,620,610 0 0
Reservas 0 0 0
Resultados del ejercicio 72,697,160 417,162,913 220,856,499
Resultados de ejercicios anteriores 32,265,764 104,962,924 522,125,837
Valorizaciones 0 0 0
Utilidad Consorcios 0 0 0
TOTAL PATRIMONIO 262,583,534 542,125,837 762,982,336

TOTAL PASIVO Y PATRIMONIO 1,075,649,037 1,935,408,785 3,442,712,391

ESTADO DE RESULTADOS
Ingresos Operacionales 3,359,975,749 7,559,068,308 6,486,623,557
Devoluciones en Ventas
Depreciaciones y Amortizaciones
costo de operacin 599,415,232

Utilidad bruta 3,359,975,749 7,559,068,308 5,887,208,325

otros ingresos
Gastos de administracin 3,190,796,134 6,805,501,543 5,365,480,909
 2015 2016

1,220,660,436 28,554,109
1,382,010,036 1,166,278,062
1,007,288,324 1,249,432,665

40,000,000 0
3,649,958,796 2,444,264,836
82,843,520 105,125,830
-33,492,187 -51,998,066
1,636,003 1,201,407
0 0
0 3,290,817
50,987,336 57,619,988
3,700,946,132 2,501,884,824

87,868,077 494,700,102
545,440 2,460,047
1,849,537,621 410,807,512
0 110,000
33,007,965 34,593,752
0 0
0 0
722,079,252 611,782,619
2,693,038,355 1,554,454,032
0 0
0 0
2,693,038,355 1,554,454,032

20,000,000 20,000,000
0 0
10,000,000 10,000,000
244,925,441 -62,624,731
732,982,336 980,055,523
0 0
0 0
1,007,907,777 947,430,792

3,700,946,132 2,501,884,824
5,465,656,723 2,747,679,320
0 0
0 0
0 0

5,465,656,723 2,747,679,320

4,817,569,739 2,761,528,613
Empresa de estudio
Inductores de Valor
EBITDA 2012 2013
Utilidad Operacional 146,794,630 724,869,181
+ Depreciacin/Amortizacin activos 22,384,985 28,697,584
Ebitda 169,179,615 753,566,765
Variacin 3.45
Margen Ebitda 5.04% 9.97%

Ingresos Operacionales 3,359,975,749 7,559,068,308

Crecimiento corriente 124.97%
Inflacin 2.44% 1.94%
Indice inflacin 100 101.9
Crecimiento real 120.7%
Producto Interno Bruto 4.04%
Indice PIB 100 104.0
PIB sectorial 5.99% 12.01%
Indicie PIB sectorial 100 112.0
Costo de ventas / ingresos operacionales 0.00% 0.00%
Gastos operacionales / ingresos operacionales 94.96% 90.03%

Productividad Capital de Trabajo PKT 2012 2013

Cuentas por cobrar clientes 753,830,494 1,825,504,498
Inventarios 0 0
Otros activos corrientes operacionales 0 0
sub-total activos corrientes operacionales 753,830,494 1,825,504,498

Proveedores 147,788,386 35,833,331

Costos y gastos por pagar 215,028,918 187,670,000
Otros pasivos corrientes operacionales 23,957,090 27,817,279
Sub-total pasivos corriente operacionales 386,774,394 251,320,610
Capital de Trabajo Neto 367,056,099 1,574,183,888
Variacin KTNO 1,207,127,789
Productividad del Capital de Trabajo PKT 0.11 0.21

Productividad Activo Fijo_PAF 0 0

Ingresos Operacionales 3,359,975,749 7,559,068,308
Activos fijos 19,167,879 37,835,978
Productividad Activo Fijo 175.3 199.8

Indicadores Riesgo Financiero 2012 2013

Cobertura interes 63.56 26.99
Deuda financiera / Ebitda 0.00 0.00
Deuda financiera por plazo
Corto plazo 0 0
Largo plazo 0 0
Total deuda financiera 0 0

Estructura deuda financiera por plazo

Corto plazo #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Largo plazo
Total deuda financiera #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

Deuda financiera por moneda

COP 0 0
USD 0 0
Total deuda financiera 0 0

Estructura deuda financiera por moneda

COP #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
USD #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total deuda financiera #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

Anlisis Flujo de Caja 2012 2013

Ebitda 169,179,615 753,566,765
- Impuestos 36,832,069 231,834,000
- Variacin Capital de Trabajo 0 1,207,127,789
Flujo Caja Operacional 206,011,684 2,192,528,553

Inversiones Estratgicas (CAPEX) 29,972,101.00

Atencin deuda 19,420 8,942,370
Pago Dividendos 0 0
Sub-total Necesidades 19,420 38,914,471

Cobertura FCO vs Necesidades -1060805% -5634%

Supervit (dficit) 206,031,104 2,231,443,024

Venta de Activos 0 0
Nueva deuda financiera 0 0
Capitalizacin 0 0
Disminucin caja y equivalentes 0 0
Otros ingresos no operacionales 14,675,231 12,426,876
Sub-total otras fuentes no operacionales 14,675,231 12,426,876

Otros Usos o Fuentes No Operacionales 220,706,335 2,243,869,900

 Empresa 2 - peer

2014 2015 2016 Promedio 2012

442,777,435 498,815,287 -65,098,110 -42,425,026
78,949,981 149,271,697 51,248,817 23,774,308
521,727,416 648,086,984 -13,849,293 -18,650,717
-0.31 0.24 -1.02
8.04% 11.86% -0.50% #VALUE! -1.30%

6,486,623,557 5,465,656,723 2,747,679,320 1,433,666,094

-14.19% -15.74% -49.73% -4.9%
3.66% 6.77% 5.75% 4.5%
### 2.44%
105.7 112.8 119.3 100
-17.2% -21.1% -52.5% -9.0%
4.87% 3.05% 1.96% 3.5%
###
109.1 112.4 114.6 100
13.18% 5.65% 2.36% 8.2%
### 5.99%
126.8 133.9 137.1 100
9.24% 0.00% 0.00% 1.8% 6.47%
82.72% 88.14% 100.50% 91.3% 94.83%

2014 2015 2016 2012

2,870,226,820 1,007,288,324 1,249,432,665 751,383,594
90,299,160 40,000,000 0 0
0 0 0 0
2,960,525,980 1,047,288,324 1,249,432,665 751,383,594

240,456,005 545,440 2,460,047 24,493,789

1,883,667,254 1,849,537,621 410,807,512 18,980,806
37,168,418 722,079,252 611,782,619 98,931,000
2,161,291,677 2,572,162,313 1,025,050,178 142,405,595
799,234,303 - 1,524,873,989 224,382,487 608,977,999
- 774,949,585 - 2,324,108,292 1,749,256,476
0.12 - 0.28 0.08 0.42

0 0 0 2011
6,486,623,557 5,465,656,723 2,747,679,320 1,433,666,094
74,455,302 50,987,336 54,329,171 16,093,525
87.1 107.2 50.6 89.1

2014 2015 2016 2012

14.24 32.98 -0.47 -1.50
0.31 0.14 -35.72 -10.95
 162,500,000 87,868,077 494,700,102 204,224,090
0 0 0 0
162,500,000 87,868,077 494,700,102 204,224,090

100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

0.00%
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

162,500,000 87,868,077 494,700,102 204,224,090

0 0 0 0
162,500,000 87,868,077 494,700,102 204,224,090

100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

2014 2015 2016 2012

521,727,416 648,086,984 -13,849,293 -18,650,717
135,225,000 188,261,000 21,560,000 25,499,099
-774,949,585 -2,324,108,292 1,749,256,476 0
-117,997,169 -1,487,760,308 1,756,967,183 6,848,382

67,578,599.50 -3,565,075.00 40,788,189.00

209,458,217 110,043,375 528,589,493 207,249,032
0 0 0 ### 0
277,036,816 106,478,300 569,377,682 207,249,032

43% 1397% -309% -3%

159,039,647 - 1,381,282,008 2,326,344,866 214,097,414

0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
87,286,055 80,228,066 169,006,438 139,100,943
87,286,055 80,228,066 169,006,438 139,100,943

246,325,703 - 1,301,053,943 2,495,351,304 353,198,357

 2013 2014 2015 2016 Promedio
633,983,641 1,638,310,175 1,035,934,228 1,499,088,682
39,746,937 154,667,220 433,565,355 62,506,528
673,730,578 1,792,977,395 1,469,499,583 1,561,595,210
-37.12 1.66 -0.18 0.06
14.14% 20.19% 11.85% 12.84% #DIV/0!

4,764,809,363 8,882,568,922 12,397,728,380 12,161,164,829

232.35% 86.42% 39.57% -1.91% 70.7%
1.94% 3.66% 6.77% 5.75% 4.5%
101.9 105.7 112.8 119.3
226.0% 79.8% 30.7% -7.2% 63.3%
4.04% 4.87% 3.05% 1.96% 3.5%
104.0 109.1 112.4 114.6
12.01% 13.18% 5.65% 2.36% 8.2%
112.0 126.8 133.9 137.1
17.55% 11.35% 21.13% 22.66% 15.8%
68.31% 68.47% 67.02% 63.90% 72.5%

2013 2014 2015 2016

1,807,239,295 2,607,683,465 2,425,955,771 5,744,147,004
0 28,108,642 82,263,478 53,958,689
0 0 0 0
1,807,239,295 2,635,792,107 2,508,219,249 5,798,105,693

17,486,347 677,654,928 535,177,988 1,269,337,102

628,963,178 219,600,093 353,599,563 663,084,816
59,652,554 86,571,521 369,839,324 585,472,940
706,102,079 983,826,542 1,258,616,875 2,517,894,858
1,101,137,216 1,651,965,565 1,249,602,374 3,280,210,835
492,159,217 550,828,349 - 402,363,191 2,030,608,461
0.23 0.19 0.10 0.27

2012 2013 2014 2015

4,764,809,363 8,882,568,922 12,397,728,380 12,161,164,829
34,976,711 304,025,390 951,288,257 1,045,612,859
136.2 29.2 13.0 11.6

2013 2014 2015 2016

53.24 19.91 17.93 20.65
0.11 0.24 0.66 0.67
 74,791,654 130,666,662 975,476,407 1,050,000,000
0 302,916,667 0 0
74,791,654 433,583,329 975,476,407 1,050,000,000

100.00% 30.14% 100.00% 100.00%

0.00% 69.86% 0.00% 0.00%
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

74,791,654 433,583,329 975,476,407 1,050,000,000

0 0 0 0
74,791,654 433,583,329 975,476,407 1,050,000,000

100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

2013 2014 2015 2016

673,730,578 1,792,977,395 1,469,499,583 1,561,595,210
219,489,000 484,329,967 390,208,310 431,000,000
492,159,217 550,828,349 -402,363,191 2,030,608,461
1,385,378,795 2,828,135,711 1,457,344,702 4,023,203,671

39,345,460 312,990,458 1,100,279,831 392,466,314

99,882,361 477,421,549 1,135,536,264 1,303,116,433
0 0 0 0
139,227,821 790,412,007 2,235,816,095 1,695,582,748

-995% -358% -65% -237%

1,524,606,616 3,618,547,718 3,693,160,797 5,718,786,419

0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
52,052,356 130,205,960 214,358,237 158,601,582
52,052,356 130,205,960 214,358,237 158,601,582

1,576,658,972 3,748,753,678 3,907,519,034 5,877,388,000

http://www.grupobancolombia.com/wps/portal/empresas/capital-inteligente/investigaciones-economicas/publicaciones/tabla

http://www.banrep.gov.co/es/pib
omicas/publicaciones/tablas-macroeconomicos-proyectados/
 2012 2013 2014
Ingresos Operacionales
3,359,975,749 7,559,068,308 6,486,623,557

Ingresos
ChartOperacionales
Title
7,559,068,308
6,486,623,557
5,465,656,723

3,359,975,749 Row 6
2,747,679,320
Moving avera ge (Row 6)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2012 2013 2014

Ebitda 169,179,615 753,566,765 521,727,416
Margen Ebitda 5.04% 9.97% 8.04%

EBITDA Y MARGEN DE EBITDA

800,000,000 753,566,765 14
700,000,000 648,086,984 12
600,000,000 11.86%
521,727,416 10
500,000,000 9.97%
8.04% 8.
400,000,000
6.
300,000,000 5.04%
169,179,615 4.
200,000,000
100,000,000 2.
-13,849,293
0 -0.50% 0.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-100,000,000 -2

Ebi tda Moving average (Ebi tda)

Margen Ebi tda Moving average (Ma rgen Ebi tda)

2012 2013 2014

Capital de Trabajo Neto 367,056,099 1,574,183,888 799,234,303
Variacin KTNO - 1,207,127,789 - 774,949,585
 2012 2013 2014
Productividad del
Capital de Trabajo PKT 0.11 0.21 0.12

Capital Fijo
2012 2013 2014
Capital Fijo 1,075,649,037 1,935,408,785 3,442,712,391

capital fijo
3,700,946,132
3,442,712,391

2,498,594,00
1,935,408,785

1,075,649,037

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1 2 3 4 5
Row 64 Capital Fijo

Productividad del Capital Fijo

2012 2013 2014
Productividad del Capital Fijo 3.12 3.91 1.88

productividad del capital fijo

2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
1 2 3 4 5
Row 81 Productivi da d del Capi tal Fijo

2012 2013 2014

ACTIVO OPERATIVO 1,829,479,531 3,760,913,282 6,403,238,372

ACTIVO OPERATIVO
6,403,238,372

4,748,234,456
3,760,913,282 3,748

1,829,479,531
 ACTIVO OPERATIVO
6,403,238,372

4,748,234,456
3,760,913,282 3,748

1,829,479,531

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Row 98
ACTIVO OPERATIVO
Moving average (ACTIVO OPERATIVO)

2012 2013 2014

Productividad del
Activo Operacional 1.84 2.01 1.01

PRODUCTIVIDAD DEL ACTIVO OPERACIONAL

2.01
1.84

1.15
1.01
0.73

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

RENTABILIDAD OPERATIVA
2012 2013 2014
RENTABILIDAD OPERATIVA 0.080 0.193 0.069

RENTABILIDAD OPERATIVA
0.250

0.200 0.193

0.150
0.105
0.100 0.080
0.069
0.050

0.000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-0.017
-0.050
 0.105
0.100 0.080
0.069
0.050

0.000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-0.017
-0.050

Activo Operativo Neto

2012 2013 2014
Activo Operativo Neto
1,564,480,176 2,443,148,205 4,027,768,247

ACTIVO OPERATIVO NETO

4,500,000,000
4,027,768,247
4,000,000,000
3,500,000,000
3,000,000,000 2,807,815,305
2,777,820,793
2,443,148,205
2,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
1,564,480,176
1,500,000,000
1,000,000,000
500,000,000
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2012 2013 2014

ACTIVO CORRIENTE 1,056,481,158 1,896,783,787 3,368,257,089
PASIVO CORRIENTE 813,065,503 1,393,282,948 2,679,730,055

ACTIVO Y PASIVO CORRIENTE PROYECTA

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2

ACTIVO CORRIENTE PASIVO CORRIENTE

2012 2013 2014

KTO 243,415,655 503,500,840 688,527,034
 2012 2013 2014 201

2017 2018 2019

IPC 4.2% 3.6% 2.9%
PIB 1.9% 2.9% 3.5%

entorno macroeconomico
IPC PIB

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

 2015 2016
5,465,656,723 2,747,679,320

Row 6
Moving average (Row 6)

2015 2016
648,086,984 -13,849,293 0.22
11.86% -0.50%

E EBITDA
14.00%
648,086,984 12.00%
11.86%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
-13,849,293
-0.50% 0.00%
2015 2016
-2.00%

g average (Ebi tda)

g average (Ma rgen Ebi tda)

2015 2016
- 1,524,873,989 224,382,487
- 2,324,108,292 1,749,256,476
 2015 2016

- 0.28 0.08

2015 2016
3,700,946,132 2,498,594,007

pital fijo
3,700,946,132
42,712,391

2,498,594,007

2014 2015 2016

3 4 5
4 Capital Fijo

2015 2016
1.48 1.10

uctividad del capital fijo

4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
3 4 5
Productivi da d del Capi tal Fijo

2015 2016
4,748,234,456 3,748,026,672

O OPERATIVO
6,403,238,372

4,748,234,456
3,748,026,672
O OPERATIVO
6,403,238,372

4,748,234,456
3,748,026,672

2014 2015 2016

8
O OPERATIVO
g average (ACTIVO OPERATIVO)

2015 2016

1.15 0.73

ACTIVO OPERACIONAL

1.15
.01
0.73

014 2015 2016

2015 2016
0.105 -0.017

PERATIVA

0.105

4 2015 2016
-0.017
 0.105

4 2015 2016
-0.017

Operativo Neto
2015 2016
2,777,820,793 2,807,815,305

PERATIVO NETO
4,027,768,247

2,807,815,305
2,777,820,793
48,205

2014 2015 2016

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

3,649,958,796 2,444,264,836 1,569,776,492 1,683,800,609 1,801,286,347 1,922,524,250
2,693,038,355 1,554,454,032 1,150,157,374 1,198,631,537 1,243,955,416 1,286,432,832

Y PASIVO CORRIENTE PROYECTADO

012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

ACTIVO CORRIENTE PASIVO CORRIENTE

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

956,920,441 889,810,804 419,619,118 485,169,072 557,330,931 636,091,418

KTO
 KTO

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
KTO

2020 2021
2.3% 3.4%
4.2% 3.9%

oeconomico
PIB

2019 2020 2021

 2021
2,060,127,568
1,230,752,813

2021
829,374,754
 2012 2013 2014
Ingresos Operacionales IVICSA 3,359,975,749 7,559,068,308 6,486,623,557
INGRESO OPERACIOBNAL SEG 1,433,666,094 4,764,809,363 8,882,568,922

INGRESOS OPERACIONALES
14,000,000,000 12,397,728,380
12,161,164,829
12,000,000,000
10,000,000,000 8,882,568,922
8,000,000,000 7,559,068,308
6,486,623,557
6,000,000,000 5,465,656,723
4,764,809,363
3,359,975,749
4,000,000,000 2,747,679,320
2,000,000,000 1,433,666,094
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Ingres os Ope raci onal es IVICSA INGRESO OPERACIOBNAL SEG

EBITDA
2012 2013 2014
EBITDA IVICSA 169,179,615 753,566,765 521,727,416
EBITDA SEG (18,650,717) 673,730,578 1,792,977,395
F.C.O IVICSA 206,011,684 2,192,528,553 -117,997,169
F.C. O. SEG 6,848,382 1,385,378,795 2,828,135,711

COMPARATIVO EBITDA Y FCO

5,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

3,000,000,000

2,000,000,000

1,000,000,000

0
2012 2013 2014 2015
-1,000,000,000

-2,000,000,000

2012 2013 2014

Variacin KTNO IVICSA - 1,207,127,789 - 774,949,585
Variacin KTNO SEG - 492,159,217 550,828,349

COMPARATIVO DEL KTNO

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
 COMPARATIVO DEL KTNO
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Vari a ci n KTNO IVICSA Vari a ci n KTNO SEG

2012 2013 2014

Productividad del
Capital de Trabajo PKT 0.11 0.21 0.12

Capital Fijo
2012 2013 2014
Capital Fijo 1,075,649,037 1,935,408,785 3,442,712,391

capital fijo
3,700,946,132
3,442,712,391

2,498,594,007
1,935,408,785

1,075,649,037

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1 2 3 4 5
Row 84 Capital Fijo

Productividad del Capital Fijo

2012 2013 2014
Productividad del Capital Fijo 3.12 3.91 1.88

productividad del capital fijo

2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
 productividad del capital fijo
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
1 2 3 4 5
Row 101 Productivi da d del Capi ta l Fi jo

2012 2013 2014

ACTIVO OPERATIVO 1,829,479,531 3,760,913,282 6,403,238,372

ACTIVO OPERATIVO
6,403,238,372

4,748,234,456

3,760,913,282 3,748

1,829,479,531

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Row 118
ACTIVO OPERATIVO
Moving average (ACTIVO OPERATIVO)

RENTABILIDAD OPERATIVA
2012 2013 2014
RENTABILIDAD OPERATIVA 0.080 0.193 0.069

RENTABILIDAD OPERATIVA
0.250

0.200 0.193

0.150
0.105
0.100 0.080
0.069
0.050

0.000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-0.017
-0.050
 0.069
0.050

0.000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-0.017
-0.050

Activo Operativo Neto

2012 2013 2014
Activo Operativo Neto
1,564,480,176 2,443,148,205 4,027,768,247

ACTIVO OPERATIVO NETO

4,500,000,000
4,027,768,247
4,000,000,000
3,500,000,000
3,000,000,000 2,807,815,305
2,777,820,793
2,443,148,205
2,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
1,564,480,176
1,500,000,000
1,000,000,000
500,000,000
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
 2015 2016
5,465,656,723 2,747,679,320
12,397,728,380 12,161,164,829

OPERACIONALES
12,397,728,380
12,161,164,829

8,882,568,922
308
6,486,623,557
5,465,656,723
09,363
2,747,679,320

3 2014 2015 2016

CSA INGRESO OPERACIOBNAL SEG

2015 2016
648,086,984 -13,849,293 IVECSA 0.22
1,469,499,583 1,561,595,210 2DA
-1,487,760,308 1,756,967,183
1,457,344,702 4,023,203,671

O EBITDA Y FCO

2014 2015 2016

2015 2016
- 2,324,108,292 1,749,256,476
- 402,363,191 2,030,608,461

L KTNO
L KTNO

2015 2016
Vari a ci n KTNO SEG

2015 2016

- 0.28 0.08

2015 2016
3,700,946,132 2,498,594,007

pital fijo
3,700,946,132
442,712,391

2,498,594,007

2014 2015 2016

3 4 5
4 Capital Fijo

2015 2016
1.48 1.10

uctividad del capital fijo

4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
uctividad del capital fijo
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
3 4 5
1 Productivi da d del Capi ta l Fi jo

2015 2016
4,748,234,456 3,748,026,672

VO OPERATIVO
6,403,238,372

4,748,234,456

3,748,026,672

2014 2015 2016

118
O OPERATIVO
ng average (ACTIVO OPERATIVO)

2015 2016
0.105 -0.017

OPERATIVA

0.105

4 2015 2016
-0.017
9

4 2015 2016
-0.017

Operativo Neto
2015 2016
2,777,820,793 2,807,815,305

PERATIVO NETO
4,027,768,247

2,807,815,305
2,777,820,793
48,205

2014 2015 2016

-
Flujo de Caja Descontado
(COP en millones, a Diciembre 31)
Escenario 1
Convencion Anual Y Periodo Historico CAGR Periodo Proyeccion CAGR
2012 2013 2014 2015 (12 - 15) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (16 - 21)
Ventas $3,359,975,749.0 $7,559,068,308.0 $6,486,623,557.0 $5,465,656,723.0 17.6% $2,747,679,320.0 $3,083,938,878.6 $3,459,826,696.9 $3,879,177,154.9 $4,344,079,566.3 $4,854,793,996.5 12.1%
% growth NA 125.0% (14.2%) (15.7%) (49.7%) 12.2% 12.2% 12.1% 12.0% 11.8%
Costo de Ventas - - 599,415,232.0 - - - - - - -
Utilidad/Beneficio Bruto $3,359,975,749.0 $7,559,068,308.0 $5,887,208,325.0 $5,465,656,723.0 17.6% $2,747,679,320.0 $3,083,938,878.6 $3,459,826,696.9 $3,879,177,154.9 $4,344,079,566.3 $4,854,793,996.5 12.1%
% margin 100.0% 100.0% 90.8% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Ventas, Generales y Administ. 3,190,796,133.9 6,805,501,543.2 5,365,480,909.1 4,817,569,739.3 14.7% 2,761,528,612.5 298,790,797.2 338,668,927.0 384,062,184.5 1,303,223,869.9 1,456,438,199.0
EBITDA * $191,564,600.1 $782,264,348.8 $600,677,396.9 $797,358,680.8 60.9% $37,399,524.5 $2,785,148,081.4 $3,121,157,769.9 $3,495,114,970.4 $3,040,855,696.4 $3,398,355,797.6 146.4%
% margin 5.7% 10.3% 9.3% 14.6% 1.4% 90.3% 90.2% 90.1% 70.0% 70.0%
Depreciation & Amortization 22,384,985.0 28,697,584.0 78,949,981.0 149,271,697.0 88.2% 51,248,817.0 886,817,840.3 1,011,134,774.5 1,026,702,291.1 1,149,748,069.0 1,284,918,919.6
EBIT $169,179,615.1 $753,566,764.8 $521,727,415.9 $648,086,983.8 56.5% ($13,849,292.5) $1,898,330,241.1 $2,110,022,995.5 $2,468,412,679.4 $1,891,107,627.4 $2,113,436,877.9 -373.3%
% margin 5.0% 10.0% 8.0% 11.9% (0.5%) 61.6% 61.0% 63.6% 43.5% 43.5%
Impuestos 36,832,069.0 231,834,000.0 135,225,000.0 188,261,000.0 21,560,000.0 635,940,630.8 706,857,703.5 826,918,247.6 633,521,055.2 708,001,354.1
EBIAT $132,347,546.1 $521,732,764.8 $386,502,415.9 $459,825,983.8 51.5% ($35,409,292.5) $1,262,389,610.3 $1,403,165,292.0 $1,641,494,431.8 $1,257,586,572.2 $1,405,435,523.8 -308.8%

Plus: Depreciation & Amortization 22,384,985.0 28,697,584.0 78,949,981.0 149,271,697.0 51,248,817.0 886,817,840.3 1,011,134,774.5 1,026,702,291.1 1,149,748,069.0 1,284,918,919.6
Less: Capital Expenditures - 29,972,101.0 67,578,599.5 (3,565,075.0) 40,788,189.0 (64,762,716.5) (72,656,360.6) (81,462,720.3) (91,225,670.9) (101,950,673.9)
Less: Increase in Net Working Capital 84,209,118.1 15,849,078.1 17,681,653.6 19,602,323.6 21,533,959.1

FCL $2,168,653,852.3 $2,357,492,784.0 $2,604,415,656.1 $2,335,711,293.9 $2,609,937,728.6

WACC 15.68%
Periodo Descuento 1 2 3 4 5
Factor Decuento 0.86 0.75 0.65 0.56 0.48
Valor Presente - Flujo de Caja Libre Descontado $1,874,670,249.3 $1,761,650,171.9 $1,682,341,836.4 $1,304,240,727.0 $1,259,805,185.5

EMM PGM PGM

Enterprise Value Implied Equity Value and Share Price Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate Perpetuity Growth Method Enterprise Value
Valor Presente de FCLD $7,882,708,170.2 Enterprise Value (EV) $19,365,305,422.9 Terminal Year Free Cash Flow (2021E) $2,609,937,728.6 Valor Presente de FCL $7,882,708,170.2 Enterprise Value (EV) $15,916,215,063.4
Less: Total Financial Debt (494,700,102.4) WACC 15.7% Less: Total Financial Debt (494,700,102.4)
Terminal Value Less: Non-operating liabilities (18,710,492.8) Terminal Value $23,788,490,582.9 Calculation of Terminal Value - PGM Less: Non-operating liabilities (18,710,492.8)
Terminal Year EBITDA (2021E) $3,398,355,797.6 Less: Noncontrolling Interest - Terminal Year Free Cash Flow (2021E) $2,609,937,728.6 Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 28,554,109.0
Exit Multiple 7.0x ???? Plus: Cash and Cash Equivalents 28,554,109.0 Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate 4.2% WACC 15.68%
Terminal Value $23,788,490,582.9 Perpetuity Growth Rate (g) -% ??? Equity Value $15,431,358,577.2
Discount Factor 0.48 Implied Equity Value $18,880,448,936.7 Implied EV/EBITDA Terminal Value $16,643,011,931.0
Present Value of Terminal Value $11,482,597,252.7 Enterprise Value (EV) $19,365,305,422.9 Discount Factor 0.48 Shares Outstanding 1,000.0
% of Enterprise Value 59.3% Shares Outstanding 1,000.0 LTM 12/31/2015 EBITDA 37,399,524.5 Present Value of Terminal Value $8,033,506,893.2
% of Enterprise Value 50.5% Implied Share Price $15,431,358.58
Enterprise Value $19,365,305,422.9 Implied Share Price $18,880,448.94 Implied EV/EBITDA 517.8x Enterprise Value $15,916,215,063.4 Implied Exit Multiple 4.9x ok

Enterprise Value Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate Enterprise Value

Exit Multiple Exit Multiple Multiple PGM
19,365,305,422.9 -1.0x -0.5x 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x 0.0 -1.0x -0.5x 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x ### 4.4x 5.4x 6.4x 7.4x 8.4x
-1.0% -1.0% 14.7%
WACC

WACC

WACC
-0.5% -0.5% 15.2%
0.0% 0.0% 15.7%
0.5% 0.5% 16.2%
1.0% 1.0% 16.7%

Supuestos
Ventas(% growth) NA 125.0% (14.2%) (15.7%) (57.6%) 12.2% 12.2% 12.1% 12.0% 11.8%
Costo de Ventas (% sales) -% -% 9.2% -% -% -% -% -% -% -%
Vtas Grales Admin (% sales) 95.0% 90.0% 82.7% 88.1% 100.5% 9.7% 9.8% 9.9% 30.0% 30.0% Comments
Depreciation & Amortization (% sales) 0.7% 0.4% 1.2% 2.7% 1.9% 28.8% 29.2% 26.5% 26.5% 26.5% The football field is a valuation matrix that identifies a value range across multiple
Capital Expenditures (% sales) -% (0.4%) (1.0%) 0.1% (1.5%) 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% valuation methods. In addition to the RI and DDM methods, we also include a 52
Impuestos -% -% -% -% -% 33.5% 33.5% 33.5% 33.5% 33.5% week trading high and low range, as well as a peer-group derived valuation using
Working Capital (% sales) (4.2%) (4.2%) (4.2%) (4.2%) (4.2%) an LTM P/B range.
To create a football field, we reference the valuation ranges from the appropriate
156,222,521 areas of the model and calculate an average valuation for each valuation method.

FLUJO DE CADA LIBRE DESCOSTADO Next, we lay out the ranges in a way that will be Excel chart friendly:
Comentarios
enro 2017 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Starting
El campo with
dethe low es
ftbol valuation as a baseline,
una matriz we calculate
de valoracin two percentiles:
que identifica un rango de
0-50% and 50-100%, representing the tails around the average value.
F.C.D 1,874,670,249 1,874,670,249 1,874,670,249 1,874,670,249 1,874,670,249 1,874,670,249 1,874,670,249 1,874,670,249 1,874,670,249 1,874,670,249 1,874,670,249 1,874,670,249 valores a travs de mltiples mtodos de valoracin. Adems de los
mtodos
We can nowEMM y DFC,
insert Incluimos
a stacked columnuna
barvaloracin derivada
chart. Remove the fillde un grupo
from the lowde
pares (multilplos
valuation stack andcomparables) usandofield.
you have a football una gama LTM.
F.C.D Para crear un campo de ftbol, hacemos referencia a los rangos de
valoracin de los reas apropiadas del modelo y calculamos una valoracin
2,000,000,000
promedio para cada mtodo de valoracin.
1,800,000,000 1,874,670,249 1,874,670,249
1,600,000,000
1,874,670,249
1,874,670,249 A continuacin, establecemos los rangos de una manera que ser una grafica
1,400,000,000
1,874,670,249
1,200,000,000 de Excel amigable: Comenzando con la valoracin baja como lnea de base,
1,000,000,000 calculamos dos percentiles: 0-50% y 50-100%, representando las colas
800,000,000 alrededor del valor medio.
600,000,000
400,000,000 Ahora podemos insertar un grfico de barras de columnas apiladas. Quite el
200,000,000 relleno de la pila de valoracin baja y usted tiene un campo de ftbol.
-
e nro 2017
42767
42795
42826
42856
 Periodo Proyeccion CAGR
DETALLE 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (16 - 21)
Ventas $2,747,679,320.0 $3,083,938,878.6 $3,459,826,696.9 $3,879,177,154.9 $4,344,079,566.3 $4,854,793,996.5 12.1%
% CRECIMIENTO (49.7%) 12.2% 12.2% 12.1% 12.0% 11.8%
Costo de Ventas - - - - - -
Utilidad/Beneficio Bruto $2,747,679,320.0 $3,083,938,878.6 $3,459,826,696.9 $3,879,177,154.9 $4,344,079,566.3 $4,854,793,996.5 12.1%
% MARGEN 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Ventas, Generales y Administ. 2,761,528,612.5 298,790,797.2 338,668,927.0 384,062,184.5 1,303,223,869.9 1,456,438,199.0
EBITDA $37,399,524.5 $2,785,148,081.4 $3,121,157,769.9 $3,495,114,970.4 $3,040,855,696.4 $3,398,355,797.6 146.4%
% margin 1.4% 90.3% 90.2% 90.1% 70.0% 70.0%
Depreciacion y amortizacion 51,248,817.0 886,817,840.3 1,011,134,774.5 1,026,702,291.1 1,149,748,069.0 1,284,918,919.6
EBIT ($13,849,292.5) $1,898,330,241.1 $2,110,022,995.5 $2,468,412,679.4 $1,891,107,627.4 $2,113,436,877.9 -373.3%
% margin (0.5%) 61.6% 61.0% 63.6% 43.5% 43.5%
Impuestos 21,560,000.0 635,940,630.8 706,857,703.5 826,918,247.6 633,521,055.2 708,001,354.1
EBIAT ($35,409,292.5) $1,262,389,610.3 $1,403,165,292.0 $1,641,494,431.8 $1,257,586,572.2 $1,405,435,523.8 -308.8%

Plus: Depreciation & Amortiza 51,248,817.0 886,817,840.3 1,011,134,774.5 1,026,702,291.1 1,149,748,069.0 1,284,918,919.6
Less: Capital Expenditures 40,788,189.0 (64,762,716.5) (72,656,360.6) (81,462,720.3) (91,225,670.9) (101,950,673.9)
Less: Increase in Net Working Capital 84,209,118.1 15,849,078.1 17,681,653.6 19,602,323.6 21,533,959.1

FCL $2,168,653,852.3 $2,357,492,784.0 $2,604,415,656.1 $2,335,711,293.9 $2,609,937,728.6

Periodo Descuento 1 2 3 4 5
Factor Decuento 0.86 0.75 0.65 0.56 0.48

VALOR PRESENTE -
FLUJO DE CAJA LIBRE
DESCONTADO $1,874,670,249.3 $1,761,650,171.9 $1,682,341,836.4 $1,304,240,727.0 $1,259,805,185.5
Comentarios
Comments
The football
El campo defield is a es
ftbol valuation matrix
una matriz dethat identifiesque
valoracin a value range un
identifica across multiple
rango de
valuation
valores a methods.
travs deInmltiples
addition to the RI and
mtodos deDDM methods,
valoracin. we alsode
Adems include
los a 52
week
mtodostrading
EMMhighy DFC,
and low range, asuna
Incluimos wellvaloracin
as a peer-group derived
derivada valuation
de un using
grupo de
an LTM(multilplos
pares P/B range.comparables) usando una gama LTM.

To create a football field, we reference the valuation ranges from the appropriate
Para
areascrear
of theun campo
model andde ftbol,an
calculate hacemos referenciafora each
average valuation los rangos de method.
valuation
valoracin de los reas apropiadas del modelo y calculamos una valoracin
promedio
Next, we laypara cadaranges
out the mtodo
in a de
wayvaloracin.
that will be Excel chart friendly:
Starting with the low valuation as a baseline, we calculate two percentiles:
A continuacin,
0-50% and 50-100%,establecemos
representinglos
therangos de una
tails around themanera
averageque ser una grafica
value.
de Excel amigable: Comenzando con la valoracin baja como lnea de base,
We can now dos
calculamos insert a stacked column
percentiles: 0-50%bar chart. Remove
y 50-100%, the fill fromlas
representando thecolas
low
valuation
alrededorstack and you
del valor have a football field.
medio.

Ahora podemos insertar un grfico de barras de columnas apiladas. Quite el

relleno de la pila de valoracin baja y usted tiene un campo de ftbol.
 630,000 Arriendo mes de septiembre
464,000 administracion
50,000 administracion octubre
servicios publicos
80,000 para quedar al dia a septiembre
1,224,000
valor a favor 300,000

924,000 VALOR A PAGAR

-
Working Capital (Analysis and Projections)
(COP en Millones)

Periodo Historico Periodo Proyeccion

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Ventas $3,359,975,749.0 $7,559,068,308.0 $6,486,623,557.0 $5,465,656,723.0 $2,747,679,320.0 $3,083,938,878.6 $3,459,826,696.9 $3,879,177,154.9 $4,344,079,566.3 $4,854,793,996.5
Costo de Ventas - - 599,415,232.0 - - - - - - -

Activos Corriente
Cuentas por Cobrar 753,830,493.6 1,825,504,497.6 2,870,226,820.4 1,007,288,324.0 1,249,432,665.0 135,186,361.8 151,663,636.0 170,046,121.9 190,425,405.6 212,812,887.5
Inventarios - - 90,299,160.0 40,000,000.0 - - - - - -
Gastos pre-pagados/Otros act ctes op. - - - - - 3,083,938.9 3,459,826.7 3,879,177.2 4,344,079.6 4,854,794.0
Total Activos Corrientes $753,830,493.6 $1,825,504,497.6 $2,960,525,980.4 $1,047,288,324.0 $1,249,432,665.0 $138,270,300.7 $155,123,462.7 $173,925,299.0 $194,769,485.2 $217,667,681.5

Pasivo Corriente
Cuentas por Pagar 147,788,386.1 35,833,330.6 240,456,005.0 545,439.7 2,460,047.0 - - - - -
Obligaciones acum x pagar (Ctos y Gtos) 215,028,918.0 187,670,000.0 1,883,667,254.4 1,849,537,621.3 929,794,264.7 144,945,127.3 162,611,854.8 182,321,326.3 204,171,739.6 228,175,317.8
Otros pasivos corrientes 23,957,090.1 27,817,279.1 37,168,418.1 722,079,252.1 363,001,617.0 123,357,555.1 138,393,067.9 155,167,086.2 173,763,182.7 194,191,759.9
Total Pasivos Corrientes $386,774,394.1 $251,320,609.6 $2,161,291,677.4 $2,572,162,313.0 $1,295,255,928.6 $268,302,682.4 $301,004,922.6 $337,488,412.5 $377,934,922.3 $422,367,077.7

Net Working Capital $367,056,099.5 $1,574,183,888.0 $799,234,303.0 ($1,524,873,989.0) ($45,823,263.6) ($130,032,381.8) ($145,881,459.9) ($163,563,113.5) ($183,165,437.1) ($204,699,396.2)
% sales 10.9% 20.8% 12.3% (27.9%) (1.7%) (4.2%) (4.2%) (4.2%) (4.2%) (4.2%)

(Increase) / Decrease in NWC ($1,207,127,788.5) $774,949,585.0 $2,324,108,292.1 ($1,479,050,725.4) $84,209,118.1 $15,849,078.1 $17,681,653.6 $19,602,323.6 $21,533,959.1

Supuestos
Dias Cuentas x Cobrar (Rot. Cartera) 82 88 162 67 67 16 16 16 16 16
Dias de Inventario (Rot Inventario) - - 55 - - 46 40 35 30 25
Prepagados y Otros ACtes (% of sales) -% -% -% -% -% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Dias Cuentas x Pagar (Rot Proveedor) - - 146 - - 20 20 20 20 20

Obligaciones x pagar (% of sales) 6.4% 2.5% 29.0% 33.8% 33.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%
Otros pasivos corrientes (% of sales) 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 13.2% 13.2% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
-
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
(COP en Millones)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

WACC Calculation Comparable Companies Unlevered Beta
Target Capital Structure Predicted Market Market Debt/ Marginal Unlevered
Debt-to-Total Capitalization 34.3% -% -% -% -% Company Levered Beta(5) Value of Debt Value of Equity Equity Tax Rate Beta
Equity-to-Total Capitalization 65.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% CompCo1 - - - -% -% -
CompCo2 - - - -% -% -
CompCo3 - - - -% -% -
Cost of Debt CompCo4 - - - -% -% -
Cost of Debt 15.35% -% -% -% 14.1% CompCo5 - - - -% -% -
Tax Rate 19.50% -% -% -% -%
After-tax Cost of Debt 12.4% -% -% -% 14.1% Mean - -% 0.67
Median - -% -

Cost of Equity - - Relevered Beta

Risk-free Rate(1) * 9.5% -% -% -% -% Mean Target Target
Market Risk Premium(2) 6.5% -% -% -% -% Unlevered Debt/ Marginal Relevered
Levered Beta(3) 0.95 - - - - Beta Equity Tax Rate Beta (3)
Size Premium(4) * 1.78% -% -% -% -% Relevered Beta 0.67 52.2% 19.5% 0.95
Cost of Equity 17.4% -% -% -% -%
WACC Sensitivity Analysis
Pre-tax Cost of Debt
WACC 15.68% -% -% -% -% 0.2 -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0%

Capitalization
-20.0%

Debt-to-Total
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%

(1) Yield 10Y U.S, Interpolated yield on 20-year U.S. Treasury (Bloomberg) or www.damodaram.com
(2) Obtained from Ibbotson SBBI Valuation Yearbook, (S&P)
(3) Formula to calculate BL = BU * ( 1 + (1-t)*D/P). Source: Bloomberg peer group (Comparable Companies) or Damodaran (sheet Betas)
(4) Low-Cap size premium based on market capitalization, per Ibbotson or Bancolombia Matrix
(5) Sourced from Blooberg

* Risk-free Rate
Risk-free Rate (USA) 2.2%

Inflation (USA) 1.3%

Real Risk-free Rate (USA) 0.8%

6.0%
Inflation (COL)
Nominal Risk-free Rate (COL) 6.9%

Country risk premium 2.4% EMBI Colombian Bonds

Risk-free Rate Rf - (COL) 9.5%

* Size Premium
Factores Cualitativos
Factor Puntaje 0-4 Menor Riesgo >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Mayor Riesgo
0 1 2 3 4
Tamao de la comp 3 Multinacional Muy grande Grande Mediana Pequea
Acceso a capital pat 2 Transa en Bolsa Grupo Ec. S.A. Limitada Unipersonal
Acceso a capital fin 1 Muy fcil Fcil Dificil Muy Dificil Imposible
Participacin de me 3 Monopolio Oligopolio Lider Medio Pequeo
Nivel de la gerencia 2 Muy preparado Experiencial
Dependencia de em 1 Atomizacin nico gerente
Capacidad de acces 1 Disponibilidad ilimitada No disponibilidad
Flexibilidad lneas 2 Muy flexible Rigidez absoluta
Produccin propia 0 100% 0%
Concentracin prov 0 Atomizacin Unico proveedor
Concentracin de cl 0 Atomizacin Unico cliente
Posibilidad de econ 3 Alta Nula
Capacidad de distri 2 Cobertura ilimitada Dificil cobertura
Manejo de informaci 2 SI Integrado Informacin manual
Sistema de auditor 1 Permanente Inexistente
Sistemas de Calida 4 Certificado No existente
Riesgo geogrfico 2 Zona de alta seguridad Zona baja seguridad
Sistema de manejo 3 Certificado No existente
Promedio 1.78%
Source: Bancolombia matrix.
-
Debt Structure
(COP en Millones)

2016 2017 2018 2019

Debt Structure Calculation
Financial Debt Structure

Debt-short term COP 494,700,102.4 - - -

Debt-long term COP -
Debt-long term USD - - - -
Total Financial Debt $494,700,102.4 - - -

Debt-short term % COP 100% 0 0 0

Debt-long term % COP 0% 0% 0% 0%
Debt-long term % USD 0% 0% 0% 0%
Total Financial Debt 100.0% -% -% -%

Capital Structure
Finance Debt 494,700,102.4 - - -
Equity 947,430,791.6 - - -
$1,442,130,894.0 - - -

* % D/E 34% 0 0 0
% E/D 66% 0 0 0
100.0% -% -% -%

Supuestos
Total Cost of Debt 15.35% -% -% -%

* Cost of Debt Colombia 15.4% 14.5% 14.0% 14.0%

Interest Rate Col (DTF) 6.9% 6.0% 5.6% 5.5%
Spread - weighted average 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%
Cost of Debt EEUU 8.7% 7.0% 5.9% 6.5%
Forward LIBOR Curve 1.0% 1.5% 1.8% 2.0%
Spread - weighted average 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Inflation Col 6.0% 4.3% 3.2% 3.5%
Inflation EEUU 1.3% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0%

Creditos Vigentes 2016 USD COP T.LIBOR 180 Spread Tasa

Bancolombia - 494,700,102 19.5%
BBVA - -
BBVA - -
Banco Davivienda - -
Banco de Bogota - -
- 494,700,102

TRM 2015 3,149.27

 2020

204,224,090.0

-
$204,224,090.0

100%
0%
0%
100.0%

-
-
-

0
0
-%

14.1%

14.1%
5.6%
8.5%
8.7%
2.3%
3.0%
3.4%
-%

(%) Partic. Interes

100.00% 19.5%
0.00% 0.0%
0.00% 0.0%
0.00% 0.0%
0.00% 0.0%
19.5%
(COP en millones, a Diciembre 31)
Income Statement
Periodo Historico

2012 2013
Ingresos Operacionales $3,359,975,749.0 $7,559,068,308.0
% growth NA 125.0%

Costo de Ventas - -
Utilidad/Beneficio Bruto $3,359,975,749.0 $7,559,068,308.0
% margin 100.0% 100.0%

Ventas, Generales y Administ. 3,190,796,133.9 6,805,501,543.2

% sales 95.0% 90.0%

Otros Gastos / (Ingresos) - -

EBITDA $191,564,600.1 $782,264,348.8
% margin 5.7% 10.3%

Depreciation & Amortization 22,384,985.0 28,697,584.0

EBIT $169,179,615.1 $753,566,764.8
% margin 5.0% 10.0%

Gastos Intereses
Existing Revolving Credit Facility
Revolving Credit Facility
Prstamo a plazo fijo
Prstamo a Plazo Fijo - LP
Existing Term Loan
Existing Notes (Bonos)
Notes (Bonos LP)
Total Gastos por Intereses
Ingresos Intereses
Gasto Financiero Neto

Earnings Before Taxes (EBT)

Impuestos
Ingresos Netos
% margin

Income Statement Assumptions

Sales (% YoY growth) NA 125.0%
Cost of Goods Sold (% margin) -% -%
SG&A (% sales) 95.0% 90.0%
Other Expense / (Income) (% of sales) -% -%
Depreciation & Amortization (% of sales) 0.7% 0.4%
Amortization (% of sales) -% -%
Interest Income
Tax Rate

2012 2013
EBITDA $191,564,600.1 $782,264,348.8
EBIT 169179615.055 753566764.770001
Periodo Historico Periodo Pro
Pro forma Year 1 Year 2
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
$6,486,623,557.0 $5,465,656,723.0 $2,747,679,320.0 $3,083,938,878.6 $3,459,826,696.9
(14.2%) (15.7%) 17.6% 12.2% 12.2%

599,415,232.0 - - - -
$5,887,208,325.0 $5,465,656,723.0 $2,747,679,320.0 $3,083,938,878.6 $3,459,826,696.9
90.8% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

5,365,480,909.1 4,817,569,739.3 2,761,528,612.5 298,790,797.2 338,668,927.0

82.7% 88.1% 100.5% 9.7% 9.8%

- - - - -
$600,677,396.9 $797,358,680.8 $37,399,524.5 $2,785,148,081.4 $3,121,157,769.9
9.3% 14.6% 1.4% 90.3% 90.2%

78,949,981.0 149,271,697.0 51,248,817.0 886,817,840.3 1,011,134,774.5

$521,727,415.9 $648,086,983.8 ($13,849,292.5) $1,898,330,241.1 $2,110,022,995.5
8.0% 11.9% (0.5%) 61.6% 61.0%

- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
6,589.0 6,589.0 6,250.9
33,318.1 33,318.1 30,084.7
- - -
$39,907.1 $39,907.1 $36,335.6
(31,886,823.9) (87,357,593.5)
($31,846,916.8) ($87,321,257.9)

1,930,177,157.9 2,197,344,253.3
646,609,347.9 736,110,324.9
$1,283,567,810.0 $1,461,233,928.5
41.6% 42.2%

(14.2%) (15.7%) (57.6%) 12.2% 12.2%

9.2% -% -% -% -%
82.7% 88.1% 100.5% 9.7% 9.8%
-% -% -% -% -%
1.2% 2.7% 1.9% 28.8% 29.2%
-% -% -% -% -%
3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
33.5% 33.5%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$600,677,396.9 $797,358,680.8 $37,399,524.5 $2,785,148,081.4 $3,121,157,769.9
521727415.94 648086983.75 -13849292.5400004 1898330241.06518 2110022995.4549
 $191,564,600.1
169179615.055

2012
$782,264,348.8
753566764.77000
1

2013
$600,677,396.9
521727415.94

2014
$797,358,680.8
648086983.75

2015 -$37,399,524.5
EBITDA

13849292.540000
2016

4
EBIT

$2,785,148,081.4
1898330241.0651
8
2017
EBITDA Y EBIT
Row 59

$3,121,157,769.9
2110022995.4549
2018

$3,495,114,970.4
2468412679.3532
2019

$3,903,563,418.3
2753815349.2378
2020

$4,349,477,444.2
3064558524.5848
5
2021
Periodo Proyeccion
Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
2019 2020 2021
$3,879,177,154.9 $4,344,079,566.3 $4,854,793,996.5
12.1% 12.0% 11.8%

- - -
$3,879,177,154.9 $4,344,079,566.3 $4,854,793,996.5
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

384,062,184.5 440,516,148.0 505,316,552.3

9.9% 10.1% 10.4%

- - -
$3,495,114,970.4 $3,903,563,418.3 $4,349,477,444.2
90.1% 89.9% 89.6%

1,026,702,291.1 1,149,748,069.0 1,284,918,919.6 $5,359,321,894.5

$2,468,412,679.4 $2,753,815,349.2 $3,064,558,524.6
63.6% 63.4% 63.1%

- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
4,593.0 3,239.0 2,367.7
27,631.9 28,523.8 15,486.2
- - -
$32,224.9 $31,762.8 $17,853.9
(138,477,019.8) (195,836,011.4) (260,385,983.3) se cambio esta formula
($138,444,794.9) ($195,804,248.6) ($260,368,129.5)

2,606,857,474.3 2,949,619,597.8 3,324,926,654.1

873,297,253.9 988,122,565.3 1,113,850,429.1
$1,733,560,220.4 $1,961,497,032.5 $2,211,076,225.0
44.7% 45.2% 45.5%

12.1% 12.0% 11.8%

-% -% -%
9.9% 10.1% 10.4%
-% -% -%
26.5% 26.5% 26.5%
-% -% -%
3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
33.5% 33.5% 33.5%

2019 2020 2021

$3,495,114,970.4 $3,903,563,418.3 $4,349,477,444.2
2468412679.3532 2753815349.23783 3064558524.58485
(COP en millones, a Diciembre 31)
Balance Sheet

Opening Adjustments
2016 + -
Cash and Cash Equivalents 28,554,109.0
Accounts Receivable -
Accounts Receivable - Customers 2,415,710,727.0
Inventories -
Prepaids and Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets $2,444,264,836.0

Investments -
Several debtors -
Property, Plant and Equipment, net 53,127,763.7
Intangible Assets 1,201,407.0
Other Assets 3,290,817.0
Deferred Financing Fees -
Total Assets $2,501,884,823.7

Laboral obligations 34,593,752.0

Other, taxes, estimated liabilities 110,000.0
Accounts Payable 410,807,512.1
Accrued Liabilities 497,160,149.4
Other Current Liabilities 611,782,619.0
Total Current Liabilities $1,554,454,032.5

Accounts Payable -
Tax deferred liabilities -
Retirement pensions -
Existing Credit Facility -
Revolving Credit Facility -
Prstamo a plazo fijo -
Prstamo a Plazo Fijo - LP -
Existing Term Loan (BBVA, Bancol,Dav,Bta) -
Existing Notes (Bonos) -
Notes (Bonos LP) -
Other Debt -
Other Long-Term Liabilities -
Total Liabilities $1,554,454,032.5

Noncontrolling Interest -
Shareholders' Equity 947,430,791.6
Total Shareholders' Equity $947,430,791.6

Total Liabilities and Equity $2,501,884,824.1

Balance Check (0) 0 0

Net Working Capital 895,960,446.5

(Increase) / Decrease in Net Working Capital

Balance Sheet Assumptions

Current Assets
Dias Cuentas x Cobrar (Rot. Cartera) 320.9
Dias de Inventario (Rot Inventario) -
Prepagados y Otros ACtes (% of sales) -%

Current Liabilities
Dias Cuentas x Pagar (Rot Proveedor) -
Obligaciones x pagar (% of sales) 18.1%
Otros pasivos corrientes (% of sales) 22.3%
 Periodo Proyeccion
Pro Forma Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
28,554,109.0 $3,160,128,285.9 $5,575,631,061.5 $8,272,070,921.0 $11,311,530,219.7
- - - - -
2,415,710,727.0 135,186,361.8 151,663,636.0 170,046,121.9 190,425,405.6
- - - - -
- 3,083,938.9 3,459,826.7 3,879,177.2 4,344,079.6
$2,444,264,836.0 $3,298,398,586.6 $5,730,754,524.2 $8,445,996,220.0 $11,506,299,705.0

- - - - -
- - - - -
53,127,763.7 (768,927,360.2) (1,707,405,774.0) (2,652,645,344.8) (3,711,167,742.9)
1,201,407.0 1,201,407.0 1,201,407.0 1,201,407.0 1,201,407.0
3,290,817.0 3,290,817.0 3,290,817.0 3,290,817.0 3,290,817.0
- - - - -
$2,501,884,823.7 $2,533,963,450.4 $4,027,840,974.2 $5,797,843,099.2 $7,799,624,186.0

34,593,752.0 34,593,752.0 34,593,752.0 34,593,752.0 34,593,752.0

110,000.0 110,000.0 110,000.0 110,000.0 110,000.0
410,807,512.1 - - - -
497,160,149.4 144,945,127.3 162,611,854.8 182,321,326.3 204,171,739.6
611,782,619.0 123,357,555.1 138,393,067.9 155,167,086.2 173,763,182.7
$1,554,454,032.5 $303,006,434.4 $335,708,674.6 $372,192,164.5 $412,638,674.3

- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- 260,000.0 260,000.0 260,000.0 138,080.0
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
$1,554,454,032.5 $303,266,434.4 $335,968,674.6 $372,452,164.5 $412,776,754.3

- - - - -
947,430,791.6 2,230,998,601.6 3,692,232,530.0 5,425,792,750.4 7,387,289,783.0
$947,430,791.6 $2,230,998,601.6 $3,692,232,530.0 $5,425,792,750.4 $7,387,289,783.0

$2,501,884,824.1 $2,534,265,036.0 $4,028,201,204.7 $5,798,244,914.9 $7,800,066,537.2

(0) (301,586) (360,230) (401,816) (442,351)

895,960,446.5 (130,032,381.8) (145,881,459.9) (163,563,113.5) (183,165,437.1)

1,025,992,828.3 15,849,078.1 17,681,653.6 19,602,323.6
320.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0
- 46.0 40.0 35.0 30.0
-% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

- 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0

18.1% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%
22.3% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
 Year 5
2021
$14,727,068,114.0
-
212,812,887.5
-
4,854,794.0
$14,944,735,795.5

-
-
(4,894,135,988.6)
1,201,407.0
3,290,817.0
-
$10,055,092,030.9

34,593,752.0
110,000.0
-
228,175,317.8
194,191,759.9
$457,070,829.7

-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
138,080.0
-
-
-
$457,208,909.7

-
9,598,366,007.9
$9,598,366,007.9

$10,055,574,917.6

(482,887)

(204,699,396.2)
21,533,959.1
16.0
25.0
0.1%

20.0
4.7%
4.0%
(COP en millones, a Diciembre 31)
Debt Schedule

Pro Forma Year 1

2016 2017
Forward LIBOR Curve (1) 0.75% 1.00%
Interest Rate Col (DTF) 6.90% 6.90%
IPC Indicator Col (12 months) (2) 6.77% 5.75%

(1) Bloomberg or weighted average 180 days from www.banrep.gov.co

(2) www.dane.gov.co, investigaciones economicas bancolombia

Cash Flow from Operating Activities $3,196,378,478.6

Cash Flow from Investing Activities (64,762,716.5)
Cash Available for Debt Repayment $3,131,615,762.2
Total Mandatory Repayments MinCash (41,585.3)
Cash From Balance Sheet - 28,554,109.0
Cash Available for Optional Debt Repayment $3,160,128,285.9

Linea de Credito Renovable - Rotativo

Size -
Spread -%
Plazo 0 years
Comisin de compromiso -%

Beginning Balance -
Drawdown/(Repayment) -
Ending Balance -

Interest Rate 1.00%

Average Interest Expense -

Prstamo a plazo fijo

Size -
Spread -%
Term 0 years
Repayment Schedule -%

Beginning Balance -
Mandatory Repayments -
Optional Repayments -
Ending Balance -

Interest Rate 1.00%

Interest Expense -

Prstamo a Plazo Fijo - LP

Size $200,000.0
Spread 1.500%
Term 7 years
Repayment Schedule - % Per Annum, Bullet at Maturity

Beginning Balance -
Mandatory Repayments -
Optional Repayments -
Ending Balance -

Interest Rate 2.50%

Interest Expense -

Prstamo a Plazo Existente BBVA vencimiento 2020

Size $149,275.4
Spread 2.094%
Remaining Term 5 years
Repayment Schedule 20.0%

Beginning Balance $149,275.4

Mandatory Repayments (29,855.1)
Optional Repayments -
Ending Balance $119,420.3

Interest Rate 3.09%

Interest Expense 4,157.0

Prstamo a Plazo Existente Bancolombia Vcmto 2022

Size $74,763.0
Spread 1.760%
Remaining Term 7 years
Repayment Schedule 14.3%

Beginning Balance $74,763.0

Mandatory Repayments (10,680.4)
Optional Repayments -
Ending Balance $64,082.6

Interest Rate 2.76%

Interest Expense 1,916.1

Prstamo a Plazo Existente Banco Bogota Vcmto 2017

Size $17,059.6
Spread 1.600%
Remaining Term 2 years
Repayment Schedule 100.0%

Beginning Balance $17,059.6

Mandatory Repayments -
Optional Repayments -
Ending Balance $17,059.6

Interest Rate 2.60%

Interest Expense 443.5
Prstamo a Plazo Existente Banco Davivienda Vcmto 2018
Size $3,149.3
Spread 1.760%
Remaining Term 3 years
Repayment Schedule 33.3%

Beginning Balance $3,149.3

Mandatory Repayments (1,049.8)
Optional Repayments -
Ending Balance $2,099.5

Interest Rate 2.76%

Interest Expense 72.4

BONOS EMISIONES VIGENTES

Bonos Largo Plazo

Size -
Coupon 10.000%
Term 10 years

Beginning Balance -
Repayment -
Ending Balance -

Interest Expense -
 Periodo Proyeccion
Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6
2018 2019 2020 2021 2021
1.50% 1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50%
6.00% 5.55% 5.50% 5.60% 5.60%
4.30% 3.20% 3.60% 3.40% 3.00%

$2,488,217,781.1 $2,777,944,165.0 $3,130,847,425.2 $3,517,529,103.7

(72,656,360.6) (81,462,720.3) (91,225,670.9) (101,950,673.9)
$2,415,561,420.5 $2,696,481,444.8 $3,039,621,754.3 $3,415,578,429.8
(58,644.9) (41,585.3) (40,535.5) (40,535.5)
3,160,128,285.9 5,575,631,061.5 8,272,070,921.0 11,311,530,219.7
$5,575,631,061.5 $8,272,070,921.0 $11,311,652,139.7 $14,727,068,114.0

- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -

1.50% 1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50%

- - - - -

-% -% -% -% 100.0%

- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -

1.50% 1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50%

- - - - -
 - - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -

3.00% 3.25% 3.50% 3.75% 4.00%

- - - - -

$119,420.3 $89,565.2 $59,710.2 $29,855.1 -

(29,855.1) (29,855.1) (29,855.1) (29,855.1) -
- - - - -
$89,565.2 $59,710.2 $29,855.1 - -

3.59% 3.84% 4.09% 4.34% 4.59%

3,755.7 2,869.2 1,833.5 1,297.0 -

$64,082.6 $53,402.1 $42,721.7 $32,041.3 $21,360.9

(10,680.4) (10,680.4) (10,680.4) (10,680.4) (10,680.4)
- - - - -
$53,402.1 $42,721.7 $32,041.3 $21,360.9 $10,680.4

3.26% 3.51% 3.76% 4.01% 4.26%

1,915.0 1,687.0 1,405.5 1,070.7 682.5

$17,059.6 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

(17,059.6) - - - -
- - - - -
$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

3.10% 3.35% 3.60% 3.85% 4.10%

528.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
$2,099.5 $1,049.8 - - -
(1,049.8) (1,049.8) - - -
- - - - -
$1,049.8 - - - -

3.26% 3.51% 3.76% 4.01% 4.26%

51.3 36.8 - - -

- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -

- - - - -
Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
2022 2023 2024 2025
2.75% 3.00% 3.25% 3.50%
5.60% 5.60% 5.60% 5.60%
3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%

- - - -
- - - -
- - - -

2.75% 3.00% 3.25% 3.50%

- - - -

- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -

2.75% 3.00% 3.25% 3.50%

- - - -
 - - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -

4.25% 4.50% 4.75% 5.00%

- - - -

- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -

4.84% 5.09% 5.34% 5.59%

- - - -

$10,680.4 - - -
(10,680.4) - - -
- - - -
- - - -

4.51% 4.76% 5.01% 5.26%

481.7 - - -

$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

- - - -
- - - -
$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

4.35% 4.60% 4.85% 5.10%

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
 - - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -

4.51% 4.76% 5.01% 5.26%

- - - -

- - - -
- - - -
- - - -

- - - -
(COP en millones, a Diciembre 31)
Cash Flow Statement
Projection Period
Year 1 Year 2
2017 2018
Operating Activities
Net Income $1,283,567,810.0 $1,461,233,928.5
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization 886,817,840.3 1,011,134,774.5
Plus: Amortization - -

Changes in Working Capital Items

(Inc.) / Dec. in Accounts Receivable 2,280,524,365.2 (16,477,274.2)
(Inc.) / Dec. in Inventories - -
(Inc.) / Dec. in Prepaid and Other Current Assets (3,083,938.9) (375,887.8)

Inc. / (Dec.) in Accounts Payable (410,807,512.1) -

Inc. / (Dec.) in Accrued Liabilities (352,215,022.1) 17,666,727.5
Inc. / (Dec.) in Other Current Liabilities (488,425,063.9) 15,035,512.7
(Inc.) / Dec. in Net Working Capital 1,025,992,828.3 15,849,078.1
Cash Flow from Operating Activities $3,196,378,478.6 $2,488,217,781.1

Investing Activities
Capital Expenditures (64,762,716.5) (72,656,360.6)
Other Investing Activities - -
Cash Flow from Investing Activities ($64,762,716.5) ($72,656,360.6)

Financing Activities
Revolving Credit Facility - -
Prstamo a plazo fijo - -
Prstamo a Plazo Fijo - LP - -
Existing Term Loan (41,585.3) (58,644.9)
Existing Notes (Bonos) - -
Notes (Bonos LP) - -
Other Debt - -
Dividends - -
Equity Issuance / (Repurchase) - -
Cash Flow from Financing Activities ($41,585.3) ($58,644.9)

Excess Cash for the Period $3,131,574,176.9 $2,415,502,775.6

Beginning Cash Balance 28,554,109.0 3,160,128,285.9
Ending Cash Balance $3,160,128,285.9 $5,575,631,061.5

Cash Flow Statement Assumptions

Capital Expenditures (% of sales) 2.1% 2.1%
Projection Period
Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
2019 2020 2021

$1,733,560,220.4 $1,961,497,032.5 $2,211,076,225.0

1,026,702,291.1 1,149,748,069.0 1,284,918,919.6
- - -

(18,382,485.8) (20,379,283.8) (22,387,481.9)

- - -
(419,350.5) (464,902.4) (510,714.4)

- - -
19,709,471.5 21,850,413.3 24,003,578.2
16,774,018.3 18,596,096.5 20,428,577.2
17,681,653.6 19,602,323.6 21,533,959.1
$2,777,944,165.0 $3,130,847,425.2 $3,517,529,103.7

(81,462,720.3) (91,225,670.9) (101,950,673.9)

- - -
($81,462,720.3) ($91,225,670.9) ($101,950,673.9)

- - -
- - -
- - -
(41,585.3) (40,535.5) (40,535.5)
- (121,920.0) -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
($41,585.3) ($162,455.5) ($40,535.5)

$2,696,439,859.5 $3,039,459,298.8 $3,415,537,894.3

5,575,631,061.5 8,272,070,921.0 11,311,530,219.7
$8,272,070,921.0 $11,311,530,219.7 $14,727,068,114.0

2.1% 2.1% 2.1%

HISTORICO Y PROYECCIN DE INFLACIN (IPC)

BAN. REPBLICA CORFICOLOMBIANA BANCOLOMBIA IPC

AO AO
(%) (%) (%) (%)

2006 4.48 4.48 4.48 2006 4.48

2007 5.69 5.69 5.69 2007 5.69
2008 7.67 7.67 7.67 2008 7.67
2009 2.37 2.37 2.37 2009 2.37
2010 3.17 3.17 3.17 2010 3.17
2011 3.73 3.73 3.73 2011 3.73
2012 2.44 2.44 2.44 2012 2.44
2013 1.94 1.94 1.94 2013 1.94
2014 3.66 3.66 3.66 2014 3.66
2015 6.77 6.77 6.77 2015 6.77
2016 5.75 5.75 5.75 2016 5.75
2017 2017
2018 2018
2019 2019
2020 2020
2021 2021
PROMEDIO 4.33 4.33 4.33 PROMEDIO

PROMEDIO TOTAL IPC 4.33

EST IM ACI N Y P ROYECCI N DE IP C

IPC Previ s i n
(%)

4.1834629872
7.67

6.77

5.75
5.69
4.48

4.06
3.73

3.66
3.17

2.44
2.37

1.94

6 9 0 3 4 7 8
07 08 0 1 1 12 1 1 5 16 1 1 9
00 0 0 0 0 01 0 0 0 01 0 0 0 01
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

HISTORICO Y PROYECCIN (PIB)

BAN. REPBLICA CORFICOLOMBIANA BANCOLOMBIA PIB

AO AO
(%) (%) (%) (%)

2006 6.70 6.70 6.70 2006 6.70

2007 6.90 6.90 6.90 2007 6.90
2008 3.55 3.55 3.55 2008 3.55
2009 1.65 1.65 1.65 2009 1.65
2010 3.97 3.97 3.97 2010 3.97
2011 6.59 6.59 6.59 2011 6.59
2012 4.04 4.04 4.04 2012 4.04
2013 4.87 4.87 4.87 2013 4.87
2014 4.39 4.39 4.39 2014 4.39
2015 3.05 3.05 3.05 2015 3.05
2016 1.96 1.96 1.96 2016 1.96
2017
2018
2019
2020
 2019

EST IM ACI N Y P ROYECCI N D E p i b

6.9006276554
6.6975152577

6.5895115156
BANCOLOMBIA Previ s in(BANCOLOMBIA

4.8740655793
(%) (%))

4.3936083397
4.0439438064
3.9718007047
3.5468048858
2.8920975463

2.6131266752

2.3341558041

2.055184933
1.6515492453
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

HISTORICO (PIB) DEL SECTOR - CONSTRUCCIN

BAN. REPBLICA
AO
(%)
2006 12.19
2007 15.78
2008 4.23
2009 13.24
2010 0.09
2011 12.85
2012 5.99
2013 12.01
2014 13.18
2015 5.65
2016 2.36
 HISTORICO EN VARIACIACIN DE INGRESOS

Intervalo de Ingresos TASA DE

Previsin
confianza Operacionales CRECIMIENTO

2012 3,359,975,749 2012

2013 7,559,068,308 124.97% 2013
2014 6,486,623,557 -14.19% 2014
2015 5,465,656,723 -15.74% 2015
2016 2,747,679,320 -49.73% 2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021

4.18 0.62
4.06 0.59
3.89 0.56
3.55 0.54
2.98 0.51
3.73 0.56

ECCI N DE IP C
s i n
4.1834629872

3.7326925974
6.77

5.75

4.06

3.89

3.55

2.98

5 7 8
16 1 1 9 0 21 IO
01 0 0 0 01 02 0 ED
2 2 2 2 2 2
M
RO
P

Intervalo de
Previsin
confianza

2.14
2.39
2.67
3.27
 4.0439438064

7
4.8740655793

8
n(BANCOLOMBIA
4.3936083397 ECCI N D E p i b

9
3.94

3.0520165733

10
1.9600498436

11
 TASA DE
Ingresos Intervalo de TASA DE
Previsin CRECIMIENTO IPC
Operacionales confianza CRECIMIENTO
PROYECTADA
3,359,975,749 4.18% 23.29%
7,559,068,308 4.06% -12.91%
6,486,623,557 3.89% -14.82%
5,465,656,723 3.55% -17.40%
2,747,679,320 2,747,679,320 2,747,679,320 2.98% -21.06%
3,387,736,530 -1,339,248,339 23.29%
2,950,530,304 -2,336,515,106 -12.91%
2,513,324,078 -3,281,822,495 -14.82%
2,076,117,852 -4,187,830,946 -17.40%
1,638,911,627 -5,062,796,073 -21.06%
PROMEDIO

13.74%
-4.42%
-5.46%
-6.92%
-9.04%
Supuestos Pagina 1 - Estado de Resultados y Estado de Flujos de Efectivo

Projection Period
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Income Statement Assumptions ** OJO TENER

Sales (% growth) CORRIENTE (INDEXADO CON IPC) 12.2% 12.2% 12.1% 12.0% 11.8%
Base 1 12.24% 12.19% 12.12% 11.98% 11.76%

Cost of Goods Sold (% sales) -% -% -% -% -%

Base 1 -% -% -% -% -%

SG&A (% sales) 9.7% 9.8% 9.9% 10.1% 10.4%

Base 1 9.69% 9.79% 9.90% 10.14% 10.41%

Depreciation & Amortization (% sales) 28.8% 29.2% 26.5% 26.5% 26.5%

Base 1 28.76% 29.23% 26.47% 26.47% 26.47%

Interest Income 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Base 1 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Cash Flow Statement Assumptions

Capital Expenditures (% of sales) 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
Base 1 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
Supuestos Pagina 2 - Balance General

Projection Period
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Activo Corriente
Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0
Base 1 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0

Days Inventory Held (DIH) 46.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0

Base 1 46.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0

Prepaid and Other Current Assets (% of sales) 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Base 1 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Pasivos Corriente
Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
Base 1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0

Accrued Liabilities (% of sales) 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%

Base 1 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%

Other Current Liabilities (% of sales) 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%

Base 1 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
(COP en millones, a Diciembre 31)
Supuestos Page 3 - Estructura de Financiacion y tasas

Financing Structures
Structure
1 2 3
Sources of Funds Structure 1 Structure 2 Status Quo
Credito Rotativo - Vigente - - -
Credito Rotativo - Nuevo - - -
Prstamo a plazo fijo - - -
Prstamo a Plazo Fijo - LP 200,000.0 - -
Bonos Mediano Plazo - - -
Bonos Largo Plazo - 200,000.0 -
Equity Contribution - - -
Cash on Hand (200,000.0) (200,000.0) -
- - -
Total Sources of Funds - - -

Uses of Funds
Equity Purchase Price - - -
Repay Existing Bank Debt - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
Total Uses of Funds - - -

Transaction Summary
Sources of Funds
% of Total Multiple of EBITDA
Amount Sources Year 2016
Credito Rotativo - Nuevo - -% -x
Prstamo a plazo fijo - -% -x
Prstamo a Plazo Fijo - LP $200,000.0 -% 0.0x
Bonos Mediano Plazo - -% -x
Bonos Largo Plazo - -% -x
Equity Contribution - -% -x
Cash on Hand ($200,000.0) -% (0.0x)
Total Sources - -% -x
- Estructura de Financiacion y tasas

Options
Financing Structure
1

ansaction Summary
Uses of Funds
Multiple of EBITDA % of Total
Cumulative Amount Uses
- x Purchase Equity - -%
- x Repay Existing Debt - -%
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
-x
- x Total Uses - -%
Date updated: 5-Jan-17
Created by: Aswath Damodaran, adamodar@stern.nyu.edu
What is this data? Beta, Unlevered beta and other risk measures
Home Page: http://www.damodaran.com
Data website: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/data.html
Companies in each industry: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/indname.xls
Variable definitions: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/variable.htm

Industry Name Number of firms Beta D/E Ratio Tax rate

Advertising 70 1.31 12.71% 14.49%
Aerospace/Defense 61 1.29 25.93% 11.81%
Air Transport 81 0.91 116.07% 16.33%
Apparel 899 0.79 26.44% 14.69%
Auto & Truck 78 1.23 39.07% 13.44%
Auto Parts 395 1.23 18.50% 18.33%
Bank (Money Center) 465 0.64 140.66% 20.31%
Banks (Regional) 87 0.61 201.39% 20.14%
Beverage (Alcoholic) 121 0.75 3.62% 21.82%
Beverage (Soft) 36 0.54 19.22% 13.22%
Broadcasting 60 1.08 17.40% 15.83%
Brokerage & Investment Banki 392 0.87 115.10% 13.92%
Building Materials 225 0.92 26.12% 16.59%
Business & Consumer Services 194 1.00 16.36% 15.69%
Cable TV 30 1.14 7.77% 12.03%
Chemical (Basic) 585 1.03 27.97% 16.75%
Chemical (Diversified) 41 1.44 30.81% 17.22%
Chemical (Specialty) 440 1.11 30.26% 16.98%
Coal & Related Energy 108 1.37 50.38% 10.64%
Computer Services 411 1.03 10.11% 13.23%
Computers/Peripherals 203 1.20 19.82% 14.64%
Construction Supplies 529 1.01 47.61% 14.73%
Diversified 238 0.78 109.21% 13.31%
Drugs (Biotechnology) 156 1.15 4.27% 6.38%
Drugs (Pharmaceutical) 576 1.01 11.71% 16.11%
Education 85 0.89 21.68% 11.68%
Electrical Equipment 529 1.20 32.96% 14.59%
Electronics (Consumer & Office 92 1.19 56.87% 12.25%
Electronics (General) 735 1.27 17.41% 13.23%
Engineering/Construction 694 1.15 84.42% 14.92%
Entertainment 164 1.12 14.82% 11.10%
Environmental & Waste Service 98 1.47 17.99% 12.27%
Farming/Agriculture 270 0.88 42.42% 13.42%
Financial Svcs. (Non-bank & In 536 0.69 120.32% 16.55%
Food Processing 854 0.76 27.59% 15.10%
Food Wholesalers 59 0.58 66.37% 16.50%
Furn/Home Furnishings 202 0.99 21.00% 18.29%
Green & Renewable Energy 77 1.06 65.65% 10.74%
Healthcare Products 164 1.05 6.71% 12.17%
Healthcare Support Services 109 1.22 21.78% 18.14%
Heathcare Information and Tec 56 1.12 5.94% 6.85%
Homebuilding 36 1.38 61.94% 12.08%
Hospitals/Healthcare Facilities 90 0.66 13.07% 19.81%
Hotel/Gaming 411 0.84 32.53% 13.03%
Household Products 235 0.88 7.01% 15.50%
Information Services 53 1.20 13.13% 15.77%
Insurance (General) 154 0.57 35.16% 11.99%
Insurance (Life) 63 0.77 53.53% 15.83%
Insurance (Prop/Cas.) 141 0.45 21.76% 15.38%
Investments & Asset Managem 333 0.75 247.47% 8.26%
Machinery 674 1.16 15.11% 15.19%
Metals & Mining 290 1.35 47.31% 11.98%
Office Equipment & Services 67 0.74 18.23% 14.81%
Oil/Gas (Integrated) 23 1.20 60.76% 16.36%
Oil/Gas (Production and Explor 135 1.97 42.58% 6.71%
Oil/Gas Distribution 86 1.61 86.57% 12.97%
Oilfield Svcs/Equip. 243 1.21 49.36% 12.14%
Packaging & Container 279 0.74 23.14% 17.84%
Paper/Forest Products 191 0.82 63.10% 14.49%
Power 370 0.81 91.58% 17.49%
Precious Metals 100 1.33 35.50% 11.43%
Publishing & Newspapers 162 0.83 8.44% 13.09%
R.E.I.T. 81 0.68 50.33% 4.34%
Real Estate (Development) 638 1.09 114.64% 19.64%
Real Estate (General/Diversifie 280 1.05 64.61% 14.57%
Real Estate (Operations & Serv 279 0.88 87.44% 14.16%
Recreation 121 0.98 20.94% 15.83%
Reinsurance 30 0.94 13.93% 13.24%
Restaurant/Dining 98 1.13 25.57% 17.54%
Retail (Automotive) 78 0.98 83.07% 16.84%
Retail (Building Supply) 13 1.18 19.47% 10.62%
Retail (Distributors) 523 0.88 63.03% 14.08%
Retail (General) 137 1.20 51.76% 22.16%
Retail (Grocery and Food) 60 0.89 27.72% 16.69%
Retail (Online) 28 1.53 23.29% 16.32%
Retail (Special Lines) 158 1.04 33.02% 15.68%
Rubber& Tires 69 0.96 32.91% 17.82%
Semiconductor 389 1.37 16.74% 10.31%
Semiconductor Equip 151 1.23 29.49% 12.67%
Shipbuilding & Marine 219 1.03 80.69% 11.30%
Shoe 63 0.90 17.38% 17.64%
Software (Entertainment) 54 1.59 5.66% 8.93%
Software (Internet) 150 1.32 6.38% 11.01%
Software (System & Applicatio 309 1.29 3.13% 10.80%
Steel 518 1.11 85.36% 11.94%
Telecom (Wireless) 62 1.02 40.58% 15.47%
Telecom. Equipment 268 1.26 11.58% 10.89%
Telecom. Services 116 0.86 35.14% 14.76%
Tobacco 29 0.34 1.41% 21.15%
Transportation 141 1.14 65.66% 18.74%
Transportation (Railroads) 11 1.73 22.25% 15.87%
Trucking 95 0.88 44.54% 14.41%
Utility (General) 13 0.81 215.44% 16.52%
Utility (Water) 56 1.29 44.17% 17.37%
Total Market 20578 1.01 62.14% 14.65%
Total Market (without financ 18286 1.06 44.03% 14.66%
 Emerging Markets

data.html
me.xls
datafile/variable.htm
Unlevered
beta Standard
corrected for deviation of
Unlevered beta Cash/Firm value cash HiLo RiskStandardequity
deviation in operating income (last 10 y
1.18 8.24% 1.29 0.3927 42.25% 54.34%
1.05 8.12% 1.14 0.3196 34.07% 31.87%
0.46 8.13% 0.50 0.2848 26.98% 60.65%
0.65 8.42% 0.71 0.3523 36.63% 36.75%
0.92 14.05% 1.07 0.3235 29.61% 46.63%
1.07 9.61% 1.18 0.3254 32.27% 42.28%
0.30 23.21% 0.40 0.2106 18.41% 14.62%
0.23 23.88% 0.31 0.2345 21.65% 154.02%
0.73 8.11% 0.79 0.2630 27.94% 288.13%
0.47 4.99% 0.49 0.2230 21.27% 39.04%
0.95 6.18% 1.01 0.2901 30.37% 36.90%
0.44 11.45% 0.49 0.3392 32.45% 165.56%
0.75 7.43% 0.81 0.3315 33.18% 30.72%
0.88 7.79% 0.95 0.3557 36.76% 46.00%
1.07 5.76% 1.13 0.3187 30.56% 56.96%
0.84 8.27% 0.92 0.3373 32.85% 27.55%
1.15 9.18% 1.27 0.3553 29.25% 22.39%
0.88 7.09% 0.95 0.3401 34.17% 34.23%
0.94 14.17% 1.10 0.3981 41.74% 48.72%
0.95 6.44% 1.02 0.3481 35.86% 32.99%
1.02 17.03% 1.23 0.3181 30.44% 45.58%
0.72 9.70% 0.80 0.3162 32.18% 26.64%
0.40 11.51% 0.45 0.2486 22.61% 46.14%
1.10 4.80% 1.16 0.3678 38.79% 50.85%
0.92 6.99% 0.99 0.3246 34.80% 44.74%
0.75 7.58% 0.81 0.3611 31.92% 48.31%
0.93 9.86% 1.04 0.3369 34.72% 9.77%
0.79 22.45% 1.02 0.3377 36.37% 68.38%
1.10 14.19% 1.28 0.3302 33.56% 34.91%
0.67 22.06% 0.86 0.3397 32.46% 40.11%
0.99 7.04% 1.07 0.3945 44.11% 75.03%
1.27 7.54% 1.38 0.3589 38.18% 72.79%
0.65 7.42% 0.70 0.3126 30.89% 30.44%
0.34 11.19% 0.39 0.3096 29.93% 29.96%
0.62 6.72% 0.66 0.3248 30.95% 36.72%
0.37 9.57% 0.41 0.3584 30.42% 31.94%
0.85 16.31% 1.01 0.3320 33.13% 53.17%
0.67 3.55% 0.69 0.3022 31.73% 44.08%
0.99 6.56% 1.06 0.3521 37.04% 38.04%
1.04 11.23% 1.17 0.3139 36.92% 61.29%
1.06 2.55% 1.08 0.3944 42.85% 81.77%
0.89 8.76% 0.98 0.3179 33.21% 73.26%
0.60 3.29% 0.62 0.3180 23.02% 43.00%
0.66 10.72% 0.74 0.2720 29.73% 41.54%
0.83 4.64% 0.87 0.3359 35.46% 33.00%
1.08 5.32% 1.14 0.3717 36.59% 31.14%
0.43 14.40% 0.51 0.2269 23.37% 44.71%
0.53 15.67% 0.63 0.2443 21.72% 45.41%
0.38 13.25% 0.44 0.2260 24.20% 48.97%
0.23 6.55% 0.24 0.3239 32.67% 35.45%
1.03 7.52% 1.11 0.3235 34.27% 32.55%
0.96 8.25% 1.04 0.3860 40.15% 34.57%
0.64 9.54% 0.71 0.2971 34.27% 20.48%
0.79 8.57% 0.87 0.2489 23.33% 29.37%
1.41 5.40% 1.49 0.4489 45.73% 40.61%
0.92 8.68% 1.01 0.3036 33.17% 34.66%
0.85 5.90% 0.90 0.3601 34.29% 25.64%
0.62 6.67% 0.67 0.3342 34.63% 24.56%
0.53 7.22% 0.57 0.3475 32.30% 21.94%
0.46 6.29% 0.49 0.2750 26.84% 36.96%
1.01 6.50% 1.08 0.5074 46.10% 41.12%
0.77 11.42% 0.87 0.3153 36.48% 27.03%
0.46 2.09% 0.47 0.1829 13.92% 43.78%
0.57 19.57% 0.70 0.2821 29.83% 53.18%
0.67 11.33% 0.76 0.2553 26.88% 32.23%
0.50 7.76% 0.54 0.2802 28.74% 42.81%
0.84 11.01% 0.94 0.2984 33.34% 57.33%
0.84 13.88% 0.97 0.2386 23.48% 49.27%
0.93 7.05% 1.00 0.3308 30.73% 37.76%
0.58 15.36% 0.68 0.2850 31.51% 51.60%
1.00 5.39% 1.06 0.3109 33.10% 79.34%
0.57 11.79% 0.65 0.3580 36.76% 29.75%
0.86 7.65% 0.93 0.2665 28.73% 28.08%
0.72 3.95% 0.75 0.2886 27.90% 40.60%
1.28 8.35% 1.39 0.3844 32.35% 27.53%
0.81 9.20% 0.90 0.3110 31.23% 37.32%
0.76 9.68% 0.84 0.3043 25.86% 57.62%
1.19 10.51% 1.33 0.3220 31.71% 55.44%
0.97 9.81% 1.08 0.3439 31.99% 65.56%
0.60 12.31% 0.68 0.2897 30.50% 51.69%
0.79 9.53% 0.87 0.3285 34.54% 29.67%
1.51 10.26% 1.69 0.3735 42.42% 42.78%
1.25 5.07% 1.32 0.3941 41.51% 65.57%
1.25 7.01% 1.35 0.3816 41.88% 40.03%
0.63 7.64% 0.68 0.3752 34.36% 47.34%
0.76 3.41% 0.79 0.2581 24.65% 16.88%
1.14 10.25% 1.27 0.3471 37.24% 33.52%
0.66 5.35% 0.70 0.2891 26.37% 3.25%
0.33 2.10% 0.34 0.2452 23.06% 21.35%
0.74 10.04% 0.82 0.2990 30.90% 33.00%
1.45 5.31% 1.53 0.3106 31.14% 32.42%
0.64 10.02% 0.71 0.2809 29.28% 26.21%
0.29 8.72% 0.32 0.2655 21.88% 25.27%
0.94 8.61% 1.03 0.2412 32.64% 28.30%
0.66 13.00% 0.76 0.3232 32.64% 43.55%
0.77 9.69% 0.85 0.3305 33.53% 23.15%
operating income (last 10 years)