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Proceedings of the 19th IAHR-APD Congress 2014, Hanoi, Vietnam

ISBN xxx-xxxx-xx-x

SEARCHING FOR PROXY PRECIPITATION DATA IN DATA SPARSE SOUTHEAST ASIA

S.Y. LIONG(1,2,3,4), S.C. LIEW(1,3,4), M.T. VU(1,3,4), V.S. RAGHAVAN(1,3,4), V.T. PHAN(5)
(1) Tropical Marine Science Institute, National University of Singapore
(2) Willis Research Network, Willis Re Inc., London, United Kingdom
(3) Center for Environmental Modeling and Sensing, SMART, Singapore
(4) Center for Hazards Research, National University of Singapore
(5) Faculty of Hydrology, Meteorology and Oceanography, Vietnam National University, Hanoi University of Science

ABSTRACT
This paper focuses on finding proxies data for rainfall data in the data sparse Southeast (SE) Asia region. Lack of good quality and/or
long record rainfall data are often the case in SE Asia. This situation leads to challenges in, for examples, deriving reliable storm
drainage design curves, assessing flow rate in transboundary catchment, anticipating flow rate for hydropower station, optimally
managing crop growths, etc. Two of the aforementioned issues are discussed in this paper: storm drainage design curves (Intensity-
Duration-Frequency curves), and transboundary catchment model. The proposed proxy data come from dynamically downscaled
reanalyses data for the domain of interest. In this study, a Regional Climate Model (RCM), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF),
is used for the entire SE Asia. The proxy data for the current climate are derived from WRF, driven by the reanalyses data, for the SE
Asia domain at a high spatial resolution of 30 30 km. For data sparse sites it is absolutely crucial to apply regional frequency
analysis by using downscaled reanalyses data as proxy to derive higher confidence level IDF curves with longer records. The
proposed approach has been successfully demonstrated and implemented on Singapore, Jakarta and Vietnam regions. Another issue
considered is the trans-boundary problem where data sharing between two countries is often a challenge. This paper shows a
transboundary catchment, Da River catchment, where upstream is in the Chinese territory while downstream is in the Vietnam
territory. A SWAT model is applied; upstream regions rainfall data are derived from the WRF model to rainfall stations in China.
Again, the study shows that precipitation data originated from downscaled reanalysis data are very useful proxies, as station data, in
transboundary catchment.
Keywords: Dynamical downscaling, Regional Climate Model, Proxy data, Reanalyses, Intensity-Duration-Frequency, Transboundary.
gauged regions are also among regions that are highly
1. INTRODUCTION vulnerable to climate change. One of the anticipated
changes is the increase in extreme rainfall intensities and
Rapid urbanization in Southeast (SE) Asia has been taking their respective frequencies. The increase in extreme
place in the past few decades. There are challenges many rainfall requires an update on the return periods and
of the SE Asian countries face. One of them is severe intensities of the IDF curves that in turn necessitates larger
flooding. Jakarta (the capital of Indonesia), for example, drainage dimension.
was flooded in February 2007 up to 5m in some parts of
the city; it was reported that 60% of the city was Analytical methods of hydrologic frequency analysis must
inundated for 2 weeks. The area of the city has doubled in be used to extrapolate beyond the range of data (e.g. 50
the last decade or so. Aside from less strict policy years of record) and estimate the 100-year return period
implementation, the city does not have a long rainfall peak flow. Even when analytical methods are used, the
record that is very critical in deriving storm drainage reality is that we are still estimating the size of 100-year
design curves, the Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves. event from 50 years of data. Most monitoring stations
Similarly when data sharing in transboundary catchment have a much shorter record. If we are uncomfortable with
is an issue, country in the downstream side is challenged estimating the 100-year event based upon 50 years of data,
with assessment of flow rate originating from upstream how confident are we in estimating it from 15 years of
catchment lying in another country. Southeast Asia is one data? (Tate, 1995). While estimates of flood return periods
of the regions strongly affected by climate change. The can be made with relatively short periods of records, the
impact of a changing climate adds to several hydrological associated confidence level in the flood frequency
challenges mentioned above. This paper focuses on statistics is much higher with a longer period of data (The
finding proxies for rainfall data for the present climate. Comet Program, 2010). For example, to estimate a 10year
The proxy data come from dynamically downscaled flood with no more than a 10 percent error, one would
reanalyses data for the domain of interest. In this study, a need 90 years of record. If a 25 percent error is
Regional Climate Model (RCM), Weather Research and acceptable, then only 18 years of record is needed. Table 1
Forecasting (WRF), is used for the entire SE Asia. The presented the length of data record needed to be within
aforementioned proxy data for the current climate are either 10 percent or 25 percent errors for the 10, 25,
derived from WRF, driven by the European reanalyses 50, and 100year floods. For data sparse sites it is
data (ERA), for the SE Asia domain at a high spatial absolutely crucial to apply regional frequency analysis by
resolution of 30 30 km. using downscaled reanalyses data as proxy to derive
higher confidence level IDF curves with longer records.
Developing IDF curves for SE Asia can be challenging The proposed approach (Liong et al., 2014) has been
especially for data sparse sites as well as regions that are successfully demonstrated and implemented on
experiencing rapid urbanization. Many of these poorly
1
Singapore and Jakarta. This paper continues exploring its regular latitude and longitude grid. The ERA40 reanalyses
robustness on Vietnam regions. use a global spectral grid model and assimilate part of the
observational data from a wide variety of observed
Table 1. Guidelines for Length of Data Record vs. Expected Error
Rate (USGS/The Comet Program, 2010)
sources. Details of the reanalyses project and this
categorization scheme can be found in the aforementioned
10 % Error Level 25 % Error Level journal article. Additional details can be obtained from:
Return Interval
(years of record) (years of record) www.ecmwf.int/research/era/. ERA-Interim reanalyses
are a higher resolution reanalyses available from 1989-
10-year 90 18 present, in preparation for the next-generation extended
25-year 105 31 reanalyses to replace ERA40. ERA-Interim (Dee et al.,
2011) was recently backdated to a decade, from 1979, and
50-year 110 39
it continues to be updated forward in time. ERA-Interim
100-year 115 48 products are also publicly available on the ECMWF Data
Server, at a 1.5 resolution. Additional details can be
Another issue requiring proxy data in the place of obtained from: www.ecmwf.int/research/era/.
observed data is the trans-boundary catchment where 2.4 Climatic Research Unit Data
data sharing between two countries is a challenge. Here,
again, downscaled reanalyses data are demonstrated to be Developed at the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the
excellent proxies for missing rainfall data. This paper University of East Anglia, UK), the CRU TS version 3.0
shows a transboundary catchment, Da River catchment, dataset is used in this study. It comprises monthly grids of
where upstream is in the Chinas territory while observed climate, for the period 1901-2006 covering only
downstream is in the Vietnam territory. A SWAT model is the global land surface at 0.5 0.5 horizontal spatial
applied; upstream regions rainfall data are derived from resolution. Precipitation and Temperature variables from
the WRF model and applied, as proxies, to rainfall the simulations of the WRF are compared against this data
stations in Chinas catchment. Three downstream flow- over the period of 1961-1990 and 1980 - 2010. Further
gauging stations are used as performance measures in the information on these datasets is available at
model calibration, validation and verification. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data.
2.5 Dynamical Downscaling Methodology
2. MODEL, DATA AND METHODOLOGY
In this study, the dynamical downscaling is performed
2.1 Weather Research and Forecasting Model
over the Southeast Asia region. The WRF was driven at a
Developed at the National Center for Atmospheric 30 30 km resolution by ERA40 Global Reanalyses from
Research (NCAR) in the USA, the Weather Research and 1961 1990 and ERA-Interim for current climate 1980-
Forecasting (WRF) Model is suitable for a broad spectrum 2010. Dynamical downscaling was first performed to
of applications across scales ranging from meters to obtain high-resolution climate outputs. Firstly, the
thousands of kilometers. WRF allows researchers the performance evaluation of WRF/ERA40 (WRF model
ability to conduct simulations reflecting either real data or driven by ERA40), for the study region (Figure 1) was
idealized configurations. The WRF software has a done by comparing the simulation results with the CRU
modular, hierarchical design that provides good gridded observation data 1961 1990. As shown in Figure
portability and efficiency across a range of foreseeable 1, the overall simulated mean daily precipitation of
parallel computer architectures. The model incorporates WRF/ERA40 compared reasonably well with CRU,
advanced numeric and data-assimilation techniques, a though some sub-regional biases exist. Since the scope of
multiple nesting capability and numerous state-of-the-art the paper is not in evaluating the models, the figures have
physics options. Other than applications of weather been presented for an idea of how good the simulation of
forecasting, the model has found wide applications in the model is when compared to observations. Similar
climate research. Additional details can be obtained from study has been done for the ERA-Interim period 1980-
http://www.wrf-model.org. Data obtained from this 2010.
model are used as proxies in this study.
2.2 Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
SWAT is a river basin scale model, developed by the
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) -
Agriculture Research Service (ARS) in early 1990s. It is
designated to work for a large river basin over a long
period of time. Its purpose is to quantify the impact of
land management practices on water, sediment and
agriculture chemical yields with varying soil, land use
Figure 1. Mean Annual Precipitation (mm/day): 1961 1990
and management conditions. Detailed information and
(left) CRU (right) WRF/ERA40
several related publications are available at
http://swatmodel.tamu.edu. SWAT version 2005 with an
3. PROXY RAINFALL DATA TO DERIVE IDF
ArcGIS user interface is used in this paper.
CURVES USING REGIONAL FREQUENCY
ANALYSIS
2.3 ReAnalysis Data -- ERA40 and ERA-Interim
With rapid urbanization in Southeast Asia, often,
The ERA40 reanalyses (Uppala et al., 2005) provide sufficiently long rainfall record to derive design curves
information of climate variables every six hours, with a (IDF) for storm drainage are not available. In this paper,
horizontal resolution of 2.5 2.5 and 23 vertical levels. the application of downscaled reanalyses ERA-Interim as
The data cover more than 40 years (1957 to 2002). Most of proxy data to provide longer records for regional
the variables are available at a resolution of 2.5 2.5 on a
2
frequency analysis to facilitate the derivation of higher Table 2: List of rainfall stations used in the analysis
confidence level IDF curves is proposed. Station Longitude Latitude Elevation (m)

Thai Nguyen 105.83 21.60 36


3.1 Brief Description of Study Region, Red River Delta,
Vietnam Tam Dao** 105.65 21.47 897
Vietnam is located in Southeast Asia, bounded between Vinh Yen 105.60 21.32 10
the latitudes of 8N to 23N and longitudes of 102E to
Viet Tri 105.42 21.30 17
109E. The total land area occupies 330,992 km2. Vietnam
has a 1400 km borderline to the North with China, 2067 Ba Vi 105.42 21.15 20
km with Laos and Cambodia to the West. The coast line of
Son Tay 105.50 21.13 16
3260 km covers the East and the South. Apart from 2
offshore archipelagos, Hoang Sa (Da Nang province) and Hanoi 105.80 21.02 5
Truong Sa (Khanh Hoa Province), Vietnam also has a
** The approach is sensitive to Topography, thus, Tam Dao Station is
system of coast 3000 big and small islands with total area being taken out from the analysis.
of more than 1600 km2.
Based on the topography and geography, Vietnam is
characterized into 7 climate sub-regions from North to
South of Vietnam (S1 to S7) as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 4. Rainfall Stations at Red River Delta

As Red River Delta is a data sparse region and there are


no IDF curves for the region, deriving IDF curves using
longer data record is essential for drainage design, thus
for flood analysis. In this study, Regional Frequency
Figure 2. Climate sub-region of Vietnam (S1: Northwest; S2: Analysis approach is used as proxy to derive higher
Northeast; S3: Red River Delta; S4: North Centre; S5: South confidence level IDF curves using downscaled Reanalyses
Centre; S6: Centre Highland; S7: Mekong Delta) datasets. The proposed approach has been successfully
demonstrated and implemented on Jakarta and Singapore
Red river delta (Figure 3) is the delta region with low
regions (Liong et al., 2014; Liu et al., 2014). Proof-of-
topography over which lies Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam.
Concept of the approach using Singapore Stations is
During the winter or dry season, extending roughly from
briefly discussed in the next section.
November to April, the northeast monsoon winds usually
blow from the northeast along the China coast and across 3.2 Proof-of-Concept of Proposed Approach using Four
the Gulf of Tonkin. The Red River Delta area is 5,540 km2. (4) Meteorological Stations in Singapore
Annual rainfall strongly varies over the Red river area in
a range 1200-2500 mm/year. The approach (Liong et al., 2014) was successfully applied
on 4 Meteorological Stations (Tengah, Seletar, Paya Lebar
and Changi Stations) in Singapore (Figure 5). The 4
stations have a complete length of 31 years (1980 2010)
of datasets needed for this study which will be used to
compare with the Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF)
derived from WRF driven by Reanalyses for same record
length and period.

Figure 3. Study Area, Red River Delta

A 31 years daily record from 1980 2010 of the 7 Stations


(Figure 4; Table 2) was selected for the analysis. Figure 5. Four Meteorological Stations in Singapore
3
Firstly, the observed data from 1980 1994 for the 4 Subsequently, the two DDF were compared to obtain the
Meteorological stations were used for regional frequency bias correction equation as shown in Figure 7. By
analysis to derive the regional Depth-Duration-Frequency assuming there is no data from 1980 - 2010, the bias
(DDF 15) for 15 years. The same record length and period correction equation obtained is then used to bias correct
were extracted from downscaled reanalyses data to derive WRF/ERAI DDF (31) (31 years; 1980 2010) derived from
regional WRF/ERAI DDF15. Subsequently, the two DDFs Reanalysis data.
were compared to obtain bias correction equations (Figure
6). The bias correction equation obtained is then used to
bias correct WRF/ERAI DDF 31 (31 years; 1980 2010)
derived from reanalyses data (The results of WRF/ERAI
are not shown here due to brevity, but are comparable to
WRF/ERA40, shown in Figure 1).

Figure 7. Red River Delta (Region 1) Regional DDF (15) vs.


Regional WRF/ERAI DDF (15): Percentage Difference Bias
Correction Equation (1980 1994)

To proof that the proposed approach is robust, observed


data from 1980 2010 for the six (6) stations were used to
derive regional DDF (31) for 31 years. The regional DDF
Figure 6. Singapore Regional DDF (15) vs. Regional WRF/ERAI (31) was compared with the bias corrected regional
DDF (15): Percentage Difference Bias Correction Equation (1980 WRF/ERAI DDF (31) as shown in Table 5 and the
1994) percentage difference from the comparison were tabulated
in Table 6.
Lastly, the observed data from 1980 2010 for the 4
Meteorological stations were used to derive regional Table 5. Regional DDF (31) vs. Bias Corrected Regional
DDF31 for 31 years. The regional DDF31 was compared WRF/ERAI (31): 1, 2 and 3-day Storm Duration (1980 2010)
with the bias corrected regional WRF/ERAI DDF31 as
shown in Table 3 and the percentage difference from the
comparison were tabulated in Table 4. The comparison
results from the proof-of-concept method are significant
as they show the percentage difference of 10 15%, which
is acceptable (see Table 1).

Table 3. Singapore Regional DDF (31) vs. Bias Corrected


Regional WRF/ERAI (31): 1, 2 and 3-day Storm Duration (1980
2010)

Table 6. Regional DDF (31) vs. Bias Corrected Regional


WRF/ERAI (31): Average Difference (%)
1-Day 2-Day 3-Day
Table 4. Singapore Regional DDF (31) vs. Bias Corrected
Regional WRF/ERAI (31): Average Difference (%) Average Difference (%) - 6.4 - 2.6 - 7.1

1-Day 2-Day 3-Day


The comparison results of the approach on six (6) stations
Average Difference in Red River Delta show a percentage difference of about
14.3 11.5 10.2 5% which is very good. The proposed approach
(%)
demonstrates the usefulness of proxy data from regional
3.3 Applying Proposed Approach on Six (6) Stations in climate model, WRF, in this case, to resolve the much
Red River Delta needed rainfall data for storm drainage design curves for
many regions in SE Asia and other part of the world.
The observed data from 1980 1994 for six (6) stations Shorter storm duration can be performed for catchment
(Figure 4) were used for regional frequency analysis to with shorter than 6-hour time of concentration. Nguyen
derive the regional DDF (15) for 15 years. The same et al. (2007) demonstrated an approach as to how to
record length and period were extracted from downscaled correlate sub-daily IDF information from daily IDF data.
Reanalyses data to derive regional WRF/ERAI DDF (15).

4
4. TRANS-BOUNDARY PROXY RAINFALL modelling part, we conduct calibration for these scenarios
DATA FOR RIVER FLOW to showcase that the validation of the regional climate
model in the latter case can be used as a proxy for the
4.1 Background of Da River Basin, Transboundary
missing data in upstream catchment. This study is carried
Catchment China-Vietnam
out for present day climate from 1961-1987.
Water resources management is very crucial in many
The experimental study consists of four steps: (1) set up
countries and draws an added importance near the border
the SWAT model for the Da River basin; (2) calibrate and
regions between countries. Due to different governmental
Validate the SWAT model using observed rainfall data
policies, conflicts arise in sharing of the water resources,
from both China and Vietnam for Hoa Binh station for the
more so when the advantage is more for the upstream
periods 1961-1980 and 1981-1987 respectively, the first
user country of these water resources. Research by Lu
year used as warm up period. Lai Chau and Ta Bu station
and Siew (2006) showed that the series of dam
(at upstream of Hoa Binh station) are the two different
constructions in China are affecting water discharge and
stations in Vietnam at which the verification of the SWAT
sediment flux over Lower Mekong River over the last
simulated discharge are done to establish model
decades. For example, when availability of water
performance; (3) substitute the China station rainfall with
resources needed to be assessed over northern Vietnam,
the proxy data from the regional climate model WRF and
the data from upstream region that lies in Chinas
re-calibrate; (4) analyse the result from both scenarios.
territory may not be available, as the water quantity over
the downstream region over Vietnam depends on the flow 4.3 Results
from the upstream China part. This is a clear case of a
The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) (Nash and Sutcliffe,
trans-boundary problem, the issue cited earlier. Hence,
1970) and the Coefficient of Determination R2 that is
this paper also describes an approach to resolve data
defined by squared value of the coefficient of correlation
requirement issues of a trans-boundary nature in
according to Bravais-Pearson, are used as the
managing water resources by employing a hydrological
benchmarking indices for the simulation of runoff. The
model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) that
use of these correlation indices in hydrology has been
uses data available from the internet with implications for
discussed by Krause et al., (2005). The R2 ranges from 0 to
climate change applications.
1 with 1 as the best fit. The NSE shows the skill of the
The study region over the Da River originates from the estimates relative to a reference and it varies from
Yunnan Province in China and flows downstream negative infinity to 1 (perfect match). The NSE is
through mountainous regions, crosses the border of considered to be the most appropriate relative error or
China-Vietnam and joins as a tributary of the Red River in goodness-of-fit measures available owing to its
Vietnam. Due to its importance in the Vietnam straightforward physical interpretation (Legates and
hydropower system, Da River has been listed as the first McCabe, 1999).
in hydropower generation. The need for modeling comes
Considering the Scenario 1, the results for the daily time
with many challenges, such as (1) how to manage the
scale calibration at the Hoa Binh station for the 20 years
water sources coming from China; (2) what will be the
period 1961-1980 show that the NSE and R2 for the
impact if there are dams constructed in China that may
calibration part are quite promising with values of 0.87
affect the quantity of water flowing into Vietnam.
and 0.89 respectively (Figure 9, Table 7). This is taken as
Location of the study region is shown in Figure 8.
an indicator for very good performance as such values
have been obtained for modelling at daily time scale
rainfall information (which are usually highly variable in
space and time) compared to monthly time scales. The
validation over a different period 1981-1987 also holds
well with about the same values for NSE and R2. The
benchmarking indices at Ta Bu and Lai Chau show values
of R2 higher than 0.8 which again indicates good model
performance. As Ta Bu is located between Lai Chau and
Hoa Binh, it is understandable that the benchmarking
index is reasonably higher than that at Lai Chau lying
most upstream in Vietnam territory. The benchmarking
indices, R2 and NSE, show values greater than 0.8 and 0.6,
respectively (Table 7), at Lai Chau gauging station also
marks a good model performance.
Figure 8. Da river basin and the distribution of rainfall stations, Table 7. Benchmarking indices for daily discharge for 2
river gauging stations simulation scenarios:
4.2 Methodology Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Calibration Validation Calibration Validation


In this study, with the availability of the meteorology Sta.
period period period period
variables at the downstream part of the basin in Vietnam,
two scenarios, with respect to data availability over R2 NSE R2 NSE R2 NSE R2 NSE
upstream China, are considered. Scenario 1: we use the Hoa
limited data made available from upstream China. 0.89 0.87 0.89 0.87 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77
Binh
Scenario 2: we assume that China data in Scenario 1 is not
Ta
available for the purpose of hydrological modeling; we 0.88 0.85 0.88 0.85 0.81 0.80 0.77 0.74
Bu
then substitute the upstream region information with the
proxy data stemming from regional climate model WRF Lai
0.81 0.69 0.82 0.64 0.60 0.46 0.53 0.34
driven by ERA40 (WRF/ERA40) reanalyses data. For the Chau

5
different rainfall outputs from the climate models that
were used as inputs for driving the hydrological model.
Since the overall present day signature of the stream flow
simulations were satisfactorily derived using the SWAT
model, it also places confidence that the RCM outputs can
therefore be used to assess future stream flow using the
changes in climate model derived future rainfall. Studies
of Vu et al. (2012), Vu (2013), Raghavan et al. (2014), Liew
(2013) and Liew et al. (2013) suggest the effectiveness of
applying high resolution regional climate model outputs
for impact studies at both regional and local scales, for
impacts related to both basin scale water management
and deriving IDF curves.
What these results showcase is that there are higher
uncertainties in the regional climate model simulations at
sub-regional scales. This also suggests that even higher
resolutions (of about 5-10 km) might be necessary to
improve the simulations over such smaller areas, but still
Figure 9. Scenario 1 using observed rainfall from 3 China stations
remind us the need for dense observational networks
and observed rainfall from 9 Vietnam stations: - Used as input to
against which the model performance can be further
SWAT model to simulate stream flow.
evaluated. Though further improvements might be
Considering the Scenario 2, that applied the WRF/ERA40 necessary in the model simulations, the results suggest
output, bilinearly interpolated to upstream China stations, that the climate model outputs are reasonably good
as a proxy to replace its observed station data, the SWAT enough to be used for stream flow simulations. This
simulations indicate that the R2 and NSE values are less provides a first-cut understanding of the use of these
than their counterparts in Scenario 1, but yet showcasing output and their usefulness for hydrological studies
good model performance with these calibration indices which have implications of assessment of changes in
higher than 0.8 (See Figure 10 and Table 7). Ta Bu and Lai hydrological responses in a future climate. Given that
Chau locations also have slightly smaller values than many models will be used for climate projections, it stays
Scenario 1, but with reasonable values of indices. This with the modelling community to constrain uncertainties
suggests that though the benchmarking indices might be in models such as their physics and dynamics,
lower than when using observed station data, the RCM incorporation of complex processes, atmospheric
derived output can be used as proxies, especially over chemistry and simulations of extreme events, to make
regions where there are scanty/hardly any data. climate projections more reliable and useful for impact
studies. While these improvements are underway, an
ensemble approach of using multiple GCM/RCM
realizations for such studies will be more appropriate.

5. CONCLUSIONS
To this end, the applications of regional climate model
results for two different climate applications, one for
deriving IDF curves and the other, for a trans-boundary
hydrological study, have been presented. It is evident that
these high-resolution climate model data can potentially
be used as proxies for observed data and find wide
applications in engineering designs and hydrological
applications, such as droughts, multiple reservoirs water
transfer. These results stress the need for more high
resolution data derived from regional climate models.

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