Proceedings of the 19th IAHR-APD Congress 2014, Hanoi, Vietnam

ISBN 978604821338-1

LAND USE BASED FLOOD HAZARDS ANALYSIS FOR THE MEKONG DELTA

DUONG VU HOANG THAI (1), VAN TRINH CONG (1), FRANZ NESTMANN (2), PETER OBERLE (2), NAM NGUYEN TRUNG(3)

(1)
Institute for Water and Environment Research, Hochiminh city, Vietnam
vuhoangthaiduong@gmail.com, vantrinhcong56@gmail.com
(2)
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
franz.nestmann@kit.edu, peter.oberle@kit.edu
(3)
Southern Institute for Water Resources Planning, Hochiminh city, Vietnam
nguyentrungnam47v@gmail.com

ABSTRACT
The Mekong Delta, Vietnam is one of the largest river deltas in the world with 39.712 km2 and home to over 18 million
inhabitants. It is located in the lower Mekong river, which originates at the Tibetan plateau and crosses China,
Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, and Cambodia before entering the territory of Vietnam. The delta was formed by the
deposition of sediments from the Mekong River over thousands of years and considered as a rice bowl of the whole
country when contribution approximately 52% of the national rice production and 70% of national rice exportation,
introducing Vietnam at the second place in the world rice market. With an area of only about 5% of the total catchment
area of the Mekong River and low natural ground (mostly below +2), the Mekong delta should always bear directly
impacted flooding from the upper part of the delta. Extreme land use occupation for rice intensification in the upper
provinces of Mekong Delta in recent years with of double and/or triple cropping, is influencing the seasonal flood
regime of the Delta, significantly. Due to progressive poldering of the flood plains (to protect the rice crops from flood
waters), the flood plains are increasingly restricted. This paper will present flood situations in the delta based on land
use analysis. Hydraulic modeling and satellite products are used for this study.

Keywords: Mekong delta, flood, land use, hydraulic modeling, satellite products.

1. INTRODUCTION and loss of properties taken into account of 232 and 74

million USD, respectively (Thanh T.V, 2012).
The Mekong River Delta (MKD) in Vietnam is located at
the downstream end of the Mekong River basin. With 3.9
million ha and 18 million inhabitants, this is one of the
most important key economic zone supplying 52% of rice
for Vietnam; assuring 90% of rice exported, also produces
70% of fresh tropical fruits and 60% of aquaculture and
caught fisheries raising 34% of poultry, (Xuan VT., 2010).
With the natural topography of flat and low-lying with
an area of only 5% of the entire Mekong River basin vast
amounts of water from the entire basin area must flow
through it, causing severe floods from early June to
December with water depths in range of 0.5 to 4.0 m in
this area annually (Hoa et al, 2008). Floods also play an
important role in the Vietnamese economy and life of
people living in the Delta. Each year floodwaters
inundate 1.9 million ha and affect the lives of more than 2
million people (Van TC., 2013). Normally, these floods
are essential to food security, seasonal fishing and
increased biodiversity, farm fertilized by about one
billion m3 of sediment, the people living in the delta have
a tradition in living with the floods as floodwaters are
indispensable for the delta agriculture. However, extreme Figure 1: Map of the Mekong Delta and gauge station positions
mainstream flood events can be destructive and cause
enormous damages. Extreme events leading to fatalities According to Van T.C. (2013) and Kuenzer et al., (2013),
are relatively rare, but occurred and accompanied by the flooding regime in the Mekong delta is defined by a
death of several hundred people. Particularly, the complex mix of four influencing factors. Component 1,
historical floods in 2000 and 2011 are considered as the flood inflow is mainly induced by the flood flow on the
most enormous loss with 539 and 50 drowned people; Mekong river and overland flow; Component 2, short-
term flood due to extreme local rainfall; Component 3,
Tidal flood is mainly related to high tides during spring 2. CURRENT AGRICULTURAL SITUATION
tide and in particular with storm condition. Component IN MKD
4, flood is due to development activities. Flood
occurrences are always triggered by a combination of Overall agricultural land use is fairly stable over the past
several of the four above factors. Therefore, the potential decade after a significant increase since the 1986, when
hazard of flood in Mekong delta is a consequence of not Vietnamese government established a renovation
only natural flood but also impacts of human activities in strategy, called Doimoi, the environment and landscape of
upper hydropower plants and within the delta. the delta has changed dramatically due to the de-
Agriculture and fisheries in the MKD play an important collectivization in land-use sector. Since then, the
role in acquiring foreign currency for Vietnam (Sakamoto agricultural activities have intensified. Normally, the
et al., 2008), therefore the period from 2005 to present, local farmers practice two main rice cropping as Winter
cropping pattern areas in the MKD have been investing Spring (from December to April) and Summer Autumn
and converting rapidly from double to triple rice (April to mid-August). Then, they let their fields free to
cropping areas. As a result, yields reached 24.3 million
take flood water from upstream Mekong river, which is
tons in 2012 (GSO, 2013). It shows that the rice
lasting annually from August to end November.
production increased 2.0 fold from 1995 to 2012.
However, with the intensive land use strategy by However, in order to enhance the food security of the
development of full dyke system to protect the triple rice country, intensifying rice production has been considered
cropping from flood water in deep flooded zone of as the priority in water resources management with a
Mekong delta as the Plain of Reeds (DTM) and numerous areas of rice field shifting from a single rice
Longxuyen quadrangle (TGLX), the flood plains are crop harvest to double and triple rice crop (Autumn
increasingly restricted, leading to higher water levels and Winter season).
increased flood risks downstream the river system. This
is particular the case in the Bassac branch. The flood
hazards in the upper delta and the middle sections of the
Bassac river are thus clearly interrelated. Where land use
intensified, and associated structural measures of dykes
for polders, in the upper delta combined with the impacts
of sea level rise lead to increased water levels and higher
flood risks in CanTho city and surroundings.
With the rapid development of technologies and
computer sciences, numerous studies about flooding in
MKD have been carried out to support administrators
and decision makers in flood and land use management.
As satellite remote sensing is a valuable tool for
monitoring flooding, Kunzer et al. (2013) studied the
flooding times series based on Envisat-ASAR-WSM 150m
(from 2007 to June 2011) to identify the artificial dykes
impact to flood patterns in MKD. Sakamoto et al. (2007)
detected temporal changes in the extent of annual
Figure 2. Dyke system in DTM and TGLX in 2011 (Source: SIWRR,
flooding in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta from MODIS 2012)
time-series imagery from 2000 to 2007. In hydraulic
modeling sector, hydrodynamics models have been As a result, hydraulic works and numerous dyke systems
applied to simulate flood propagation over large river have been constructed to protect the cropping areas
networks, and projecting future patterns according to against peak flood to enable more intensive farming in
changes of the boundary conditions, Tri et al. (2012) the Plain of Reeds (DTM) and Long Xuyen quadrangle
studied the impacts of dykes to flooding regimes for (TGLX) (Kknen, 2008). Unfortunately, they are the
Long Xuyen quadrangle under the dyke system in 2000 depth flooded zones of the Mekong delta with
and scenario of 2011. Besides, impacts of manmade dyke inundation level in range of 1.5 to 2.5 m (Vinh. NT.,
system to flood 1996, 2000 and flood 2007 are studied by 2010).
Hoa et al. (2007).
In land use change assessment, beside statistical data
surveyed, Sakamoto et al. (2009) detected temporal
changes in farming system in MKD based mainly on
optical resolved MODIS data spanning from 2000 to 2007.
However, the relationship between the rapid change of
land use pattern in the last decade with flooding regimes
in the Mekong delta are not comprehensively studied.
Therefore, by combining hydraulic modeling and satellite
products, the impacts of manmade dyke system to
flooding regimes in the Mekong delta in recent years will
be simulated in this paper. Figure 3. Triple rice areas in upstream MKD provinces (statistic
data, 2012).
According to statistical data in Fig. 3, it is realized that 2006 805.5 426.0 995.8 84.3 1637.4
the areas of triple crops in Long Xuyen quadrangle
(Angiang and Kiengiang provinces) and the Plain of 2007 826.6 406.1 1043.4 85.7 1581.7
Reeds (Dongthap and Longan provinces) have increased 2008 848.9 516.7 944.5 63.0 1576.6
rapidly since 2000. In only 11 years, the cropping area in 2009 794.0 466.4 1035.8 80.8 1565.1
the 4 provinces increased 7 times from 53.5 thousand ha
in 2000 to 403.5 thousand ha in 2012. Especially in 2010 796.6 592.1 914.8 78.3 1569.9
Angiang and Dong Thap, the proportion of the triple rice 2011 788.5 656.1 876.2 65.9 1560.6
cropping area peaked in 2005 and then declined steadily 2012 773.9 907.5 654.4 64.5 1549.0
in 2006 and 2007 and slightly in 2008, however it
significantly increases from 2009 to to 2012. The satellite land use products have great agreement with
statistical data about total rice planted area and inland
Base on MODIS time-series imagery for detecting
aquaculture areas from 2001 to 2012 with R 2 = 0.93 and
spatiotemporal changes in MKD farming and inland
aquaculture areas from 2001 to 2012, which are kindly 0.98, respectively.
provided by the National Institute for Agro-Environment
sciences (NIAES), Japan.

Figure 4. Land use in Mekong delta from 2001 to 2012 (source:

NIAES, 2014)

Figure 4 and Table 1 show the rapid change of land use

areas, which converted from single rice cropping (SRC)
and double rice cropping (DRC) to triple rice cropping Figure 5. Agreement of statistical data and Modis products.
(TRC) on the whole Mekong delta. Particularly, the TRC
area increased 3 times from 374.5 in 2001 to 907.5 3. FLOODING REGIMES CHANGE IN THE
thousand ha in 2012, and distributed mostly on TGLX, MEKONG DELTA
DTM, and provinces along Mekong rivers as Vinh Long,
In this section, observed hydrologic data, satellite
Tien Giang, and Haugiang. In contrast, the total products and hydraulic modelling results will be
aquaculture areas include inland aquaculture areas for considered to analyze the change of flooding regime in
shrimp farming (IA) and shrimp-rice farming (SR), have MKD in the past decade.
little change from 676 in 2001 to 773 thousand ha in 2012,
3.1 Observed hydrologic data
and distributed mostly on coastal zones.
3.1.1 Water level change
Table 1. Annual land use in Mekong delta from MODIS satellite According to the observed data from Mekong River
(thous. ha)
Commission (MRC, 2013), in the last decade, there are
year IA+SR TRC DRC SRC others only two historical flood in 2000 and 2011 with the
2001 676.3 374.5 1058.1 147.9 1693.4 maximum water level at Tan Chau gauge (position 1 in
fig. 1) of 5.06m and 4.86m, respectively.
2002 690.3 478.0 1021.1 119.6 1633.1
2003 749.9 489.1 957.4 111.8 1638.3
2004 761.7 497.3 949.3 98.1 1637.9
2005 788.4 569.0 865.4 123.1 1590.8
 Figure 8. Difference water level on Bassac river.

3.1.2 Flood inflow rates

Figure 6. Flood hydrograph at Tan Chau gauge.
Along Mekong river, the flood peak at Tan Chau gauge
in 2011 is 20 cm lower, however water level at Ben Trai
gauge (position 28, fig. 1) is 11cm higher than in 2000.
Similarly, on Bassac river the flood peak at Chau Doc
gauge (position 2, fig. 1) is 63cm lower, but the water
level at Tran De gauge (position 17, fig. 1) is 64 cm higher
than in 2000, see table 2 & 3. Due to the flood plain areas
in upstream provinces decreased restrictedly combined
with high water at river mouths, the water level at
middle MKD increased, for instance the water level at
Cantho (position 7) and My Thuan (position 8) are +23
cm and +36cm higher than in 2000.
According to Van TC. (2013), flood inflows to the
Mekong delta through four components as Mekong river
flow (Tan Chau gauge), Bassac river flow (Chau Doc
gauge), border overflow to the Plain of Reeds (DTM) and
Long Xuyen quadrangle (TGLX). In which, the
percentage distribution focuses mostly through two
major Mekong and Bassac rivers.
Due to the development of dyke system in original flood
plain in Cambodia, flood overflow from Great Mekong
river to DTM and TGLX areas in 2011 are decreased
significantly. Consequently, flood flow is mainly
distributed through main rivers as Mekong and Bassac
rivers, see Fig. 9 and Fig. 10.

Table 2. Water level flood 2000 and flood 2011 on Mekong river.
Unit: cm.
Tan Vam Cao My Ben
Gauge
chau nao Lanh Thuan Trai
(position)
(1) (3) (6) (8) (28)
WL00 (1) 506 373 267 180 170
WL11 (2) 486 360 267 203 181
(2) (1) -20 -13 0 +23 +11

Figure 9. Flood flow distribution to Mekong delta in 2000

Figure 7. Difference water level on Mekong river.

Table 3. Water level of flood 2000 and flood 2011 on Bassac river.
Unit: cm.

Gauge Chau Doc Longxuyen Can Tho Tran De

(position) (2) (5) (7) (17)
WL00 (a) 490 263 179 170
WL11 (b) 427 281 215 234
(b) (a) -63 +18 +36 +64

Figure 10. Flood flow distribution to Mekong delta in 2011

Table 4. Observed flood inflows to Mekong delta.

 Flood 2000 Flood 2011 Comparison
Location bil. m3 % bil. m3 %
(4) - (2) Change
(1) (2) (3) (4)

TC 234.5 57% 182.0 63% +6 % increase

CD 70.5 17% 58.0 20% +3 % increase
DTM 69 17% 30.6 11% -6 % decrease
TGLX 28.3 7% 12.1 4% -3 % decrease

Table 4 shows the change of flow distribution rate,

particularly flow rate through Mekong river (measured at
Tan Chau gauge) and Bassac river (measured at Chau
Doc gauge) in 2011 increased +6% and +3%, although the
flood peak in 2011 is lower than flood 2000. In contrast,
inflow rate to DTM and TGLX decreased 6 %, and TGLX
decreased 3% from 7% in 2000 to 3% in 2011. Figure 12. Max water flood extents in studied years.

It can be seen in Figure 12 that Angiang and Dongthap

are the first areas taken the flood flow from upstream
3.2 Base on satellite product
catchment. However, Angiang is affected the most by the
Due to the study period and available satellite products dyke system for triple rice cropping. The inundated area
online, MODIS/Terra data which are freely distributed in Angiang province is reduced significantly. Table 5
through the Earth Observing System Data Gateway will shows that the wet area in this region is 2.816 km2 in
be applied to monitor the flood extents in Mekong delta.
2000, taken into account of 80% area of Angiang
The product MODIS/TERRA SURFACE province, but it is only 39% in 2011, and 23% in 2012. This
REFLECTANCE 8-DAY L3 GLOBAL 500 M SIN GRID is the consequence of dyking for the triple rice cropping
V004 is used for monitoring flood. The resolution of this areas in Angiang province. Impacts of dyke system to
product is approximately 500 m, and atmospheric other provinces are not presented clearly in this vision,
correction has already been carried out. MOD09A1
because it depends on the flood inflow, besides the
composite products yield the best surface spectral-
coastal zone is affected only by tidal regimes.
reflectance data for each 8-day period with the least effect
of atmospheric water vapor. MODIS observes spectral
Table 5. Inundation area in Angiang province.
data in 36 bands ranging in wavelengths from 0.4 to 14.4
m (EOS, 2006).
Angiang WL Tan
The images of MODIS/Terra are downloaded during the Year total Wet Chau
flood duration in 2000, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2012 %wet (m)
(km2) (km2)
corresponding with the rapid change of triple rice
2000 3527 2816 80% 5.06
cropping areas in MKD.
2007 3527 1645 47% 4.08
The inundation areas have a strong relationship with
2008 3527 1638 46% 3.73
water flood inflow, and the date with maximum flooded
area will be identified base on this relationship. For 2009 3527 1560 44% 4.08
example, in 2000 the max flooded area is on 31.10.2000, 2011 3527 1374 39% 4.86
see figure 11 below.
2012 3527 816 23% 3.16

3.3 Dyke system impacts analysis based on hydraulic

modelling.

3.3.1 Hydraulic simulation

Figure 11. Relationship between flood water level at Tan Chau
gauge and flooded area in 2000.
For other years, the same procedures are processed to get
the dates with maximum flooded areas.
One-dimension MIKE11 hydrodynamic module (HD)
will be applied for simulation the Mekong delta, one of
the largest estuaries in the world with highly complex
hydraulic system. MIKE11 uses an implicit, finite
difference scheme for the computation of unsteady flows
in rivers and estuaries. The module can describe sub-
critical as well as supercritical flow conditions through a
numerical scheme which adapts according to the local
flow conditions (in time and space). It applied with the
dynamic wave description solves the vertically integrated
equations of conservation of continuity and momentum
the Saint Venant equations, (DHI, 2004). The governing
equations are:

Q A n) of each river channel. The calibrating process was
+ =q [1] done based on the existing hydraulic roughness of the
x t
Q2 cross section in the available deltaic model and adjusted
a
gradually until the Nash-Sutcliffe index value (E) (Eq.3)

Q A h gQ Q
[2]
+ + gA + 2 =q calculated according to the measured and simulated
t x
x C AR stages met the requirement. In fact, the calculated Nash-
Where, Q: discharge; A: flow area; q: lateral inflow; h: Sutcliffe index should close to 1 (Tri et al. 2012).
stage above datum; C: Chezy resistance coefficient; R: The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency, E (Mc Cuen et
hydraulic or resistance radius; : momentum distribution al. 2006, Hoshin et at., 2009) is defined as Eq. [3].
coefficient.
n

Scope of simulation includes the territory of Cambodia ( O - S )

i i

and Vietnam, from Kratie and Tonle Sap lake to the E = 1- i =1

[3]
( O - O )
n
estuaries, see figure 13 and Table 6. The model consists i
of 11829 points and 2589 rivers, channels and floodplains i =1

with upstream boundary at Kratie, Tonlesap lake,
DauTieng and Tri An reservoirs, and some mall rivers in
Cambodia. Downstream boundary includes all estuaries
and coastal canals in Eastsea and Westsea from Ganh Rai
to Ha Tien
where: Oi, Si: Simulated and measured data; and, O:
Mean measured data.
Calibration and validation works are done for flood 2000
and flood 2011 with the Nash-sutcliffe index for each
gauges stated in Table 7, Figure 14 and Figure 16. In
general, the rating comparison between simulated and
measured data shows good physical nature of the
phenomenon. Nash-Sutcliffe index of almost stations
have acceptable values in range of 0.69 at Moc Hoa gauge
to 0.96 at Tan Chau gauge. Position of those hydraulic
gauges are numbered in Figure 1.

Table 7. Results of Nash-sutcliffe index

Station (position) Flood 2000 Flood 2011
Tan Chau (1) 0.91 0.96
Chau doc (2) 0.82 0.95
Vam Nao (3) - 0.96
Longxuyen (5) - 0.93
Cao Lanh (6) - 0.95
Can Tho (7) 0.94 0.68
My Thuan (8) 0.88 0.65
Xuan To (9) 0.94 0.89
Tri Ton (10) 0.90 0.95
Tan Hiep (12) 0.65 -
Figure 13. Geometry of Mekong river network in MIKE11 Moc Hoa (21) 0.69 0.94

Table 6. Description of the MIKE network for MKD Hung Thanh (24) 0.80 -
Tuyen Nhon (25) - 0.63
Description quantity
My Tho (27) 0.97 0.98
Point 11829
Branch 2589
Water masks from satellite products are compared with
Regular 627 hydraulic modelling flood map to evaluate the agreement
Total length of rivers and canals ~12260 km between flood map from hydraulic model and satellite
Link channels flood extent map. Figure 15 and Figure 17 show
1957
acceptable agreements of flood mappings on the
Control structures 28 31.10.2000 and 9.11.2011, although there are some
NAM model sub-basin 144 disagreements in coastal zones due to the effects of tides
Upstream boundary 8 from Westsea and Eastsea.
Downstream boundary 55
3.3.3 Simulated scenarios
Floodplain 530
To identify the impacts of dyke systems for triple crops to
3.3.2 Hydraulic model calibration floods regimes in Mekong delta, developed scenarios are:

The developed hydrodynamics model was calibrated by

adjusting the hydraulic roughness coefficient (Mannings
 Flood2000 (KB1): the measured geometric data in Table 8. Simulated scenarios
2000, and upstream discharge and sea level
measured in 2000; Scenarios Discharge Q Water Actual
Flood 2011 (KB2) the measured geometric data in (m3/s) level status
(cm) dykes
2011, and upstream discharge and sea level Flood 2000 (KB1) Q2000 H2000 2000
measured in 2011;
Flood 2011 (KB2) Q2011 H2011 2011
2000on2011 (KB3): The developed full-dyke systems
in 2011, and upstream discharge and sea level 2000on2011 (KB3) Q2000 H2000 2011
measured in 2000; and
2011on2000 (KB4) Q2011 H2011 2000
2011on2000 (KB4): the dyke systems in 2000 and By comparing KB1 versus KB3; and KB2 versus KB4
upstream discharge and sea level measured in 2011. possible impacts of the full dyke systems to the area
could be examined.

(1) (2) (5)

(9) (10) (21)

(24) (7) (8)

(12) (27)

Figure 14. Model calibration by flood 2000 at hydraulic gauges (position of gauge numbered in figure 1)
 Figure 15. Agreement of flood map in 2000 by hydraulic model and satellite products

(1) (2) (3)

(9) (10) (5)

(6) (7) (8)

(21) (25) (27)

Figure 16. Model validation by flood 2011 at hydraulic gauge (position of gauge numbered in figure 1)
 Figure 17. Agreement of flood map in 2011 by hydraulic model and satellite products

3.3.4 Results and discussion level here also decreases in comparison with KB2, see
table 9 and figure 22.
Compare KB1 vs KB3: The impacts of dykes system
resulting the water flow distributed more in main rivers
that reveals the increase of the water level along main

rivers. Particularly, the peak flood level at Chau Doc

increases 13cm, Tan Chau increases 9 cm, Can Tho and
My Thuan increase 5cm and 3 cm, respectively in
comparison with actual flood 2000. See figure 18 and 19.

Figure 20. Difference water level on Mekong river (KB2 vs KB4)

Figure 18. Difference water level on Mekong river (KB1 vs KB3)

Figure 21. Difference water level on Bassac river (KB2 vs KB4).

Table 9. Water level difference between KB2 vs KB4 at studied

points in DTM and TGLX areas.

Flood2011 2011on2000
Studied point (b) - (a)
(a) (b)
(position in fig. 1)
Figure 19. Difference water level on Bassac river (KB1 vs KB3)
(cm) (cm) (cm)
Compare KB2 vs KB4: Scenario of flood 2011 with the TGLX area
dyke system in 2000 show that the water level on major
Xuan To (9) 417 413 -4
rivers is lower compared with the actual state in 2011. See
figure 20 and Figure 21. Because there are no dyke system Tri Ton (10) 270 266 -4
for triple rice cropping, so the flood water in KB4 Tan Hiep (12) 211 199 -12
distributed widely in inland areas and it makes the water
KH (11) 168 169 1
 Thom Rom (13) 192 174 -18
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Van Pham Dang Tri, Nguyen Hieu Trung, Nguyen
The authors thank deeply the National Institute for Agro-
Thanh Tuu (2012). Flow dynamics in the Long Xuyen
Environment sciences, Japan for kindly providing
Quadrangle under the impacts of full-dyke systems
precious data of land use in the Mekong delta and Dr.
and sea level rise. VNU journal of science, Earth
Sakamoto for his great instructions. We specially thank
Sciences 28 (2012), 205-214.
the Southern Institute of Water Resources Research
(SIWRR), Southern Institute of Water Resources Planning Vinh N.T. (2010). Flooding regime in Long Xuyen
(SIWRP), and Dr. Kuenzer, DLR, WISDOM for kindly quadrangle, SIWRR.
providing necessary materials. We offer our special
Xuan V.T. (2010). Toward a sustainable development of
thanks to the Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI) for kindly
the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (internal presentation).
providing the hydraulic model MIKE11 license to
implement this study.
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Paper(s) submitted to the IAHR-APD2014 are interpreted
as declaration that the authors obtained the necessary
authorization for publication.