Evaluating Markov Models

When Markov models are evaluated, they eventually provide a single expected value (EV) for
each active payoff (frequently cost and/or effectiveness). However, you may want to see
further into the individual calculations that result in the overall EV. Markov Cohort Analysis
provides this detail.

Consider the following model.

Markov Model

Markov Cohort Analysis provides the cycle by cycle accumulation of value from each state
and transition.

Markov Cohort Analysis

Review of these transitions and calculations is a valuable tool in verifying whether your
model is working as designed. For this cost-effectiveness model, the overall accumulated
cost and effectiveness values after the last cycle become the overall EV for the Markov
model.

Markov cohort analysis also provides access to graphs showing the distribution of the
cohort among the states by cycle and the accumulation of value by cycle. One such graph is
the survival curve shown below.

Markov Survival Curve