PRC's 1st National Workshop on Economics of Climate Change and Low

Carbon Growth Strategies in Northeast Asia, 7 Apr, 2010

Impacts of Climate Change

on Forestry in China

Jianhua ZHU
Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment & Protection
Chinese Academy of Forestry
Climate Change Awareness
The air is getting hotter ！
From 2007 Nobel Peace Prize Winner,
IPCC, 4th Assessment Report
Trend in Annual Precipitation, 1901-2005
(IPCC AR4)
Projected global average surface warming and sea level
rise at the end of the 21st century
(IPCC AR4)
Source: IPCC 2007, WGI-AR4
Increase in Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

Increase 1990-2000 CO2 Concentration

~3.2 Gt C/year peak in 2009
390 ppm
39% above pre-industrial
 Human Perturbations to the Global C
Cycle
Forests will affect
Less than half of human the future CO2
emissions stay in the
atmosphere:
concentration.
8.0 up but only 3.2 remains
3.2 ± 0.1 GtC/yr
Airborne Fraction
Atmosphere

Surface ?
biosphere

6.4 ± 0.4 1.6 ±0.9 2.6 2.2 ± 0.4

Fossil Land-use Land Oceans
Fuel change uptake

Forests

Data for 1990s from IPCC 2007

(FAO, 2007)
Forest resource in China

1999-2003 2004-2008

Forest area
174.9092 195.4522
（×106 ha）
forest coverage
18.21 20.36
(%)
Stock volume
13.618 14.913
(×109 m3)
Plantation area
53.2573 61.6884
（×106 ha）

Source: 6th & 7th National Forest

Inventory, China
Forest and Climate Change
-- Carbon sinks or sources?
 Forest is the absorptive sink of
greenhouse gas

Forest can absorb CO2 through photosynthesis,

and fix them in the form of biomass, so as to
fulfill carbon sequestration function and slow
down global warming.

 Forest is also the emission source of

greenhouse gas

Forest may emit CO2 to the atmosphere and

speed up global warming in case of natural
disasters (e.g. fire, plant diseases and insect
pests), human damage (e.g. deforestation and
occupation of forestland) or degradation due to
poor management
1994 GHGs inventory for LULUCF sector,
China
Source/Sink Emissions Emissions
Sub-Categories
Categories （Gg-CO2-equiv） （Gg-C）
Forest growth -748,690.0 -204,331.7
Harvest 532,532.1 145,338.1
Stock change in Orchards and other
forests and other woody crop -60,281.6 -16,452.0
woody biomass Bamboo stands -23,904.9 -6,524.1
Trees other than forests -130,818.0 -35,702.7
Sub-Total -431,162.4 -117,672.4
Forest conversion 23,711.4 6,471.3
Total -407,451.0 -111,201.1
Estimates of Carbon balance
in Chinese forest ecosystems

 Analysis of the national forest

inventory data suggests that forest
biomass carbon stock increased
significantly during the 1980s and
1990s.
 This translates into a carbon sink
of 0.0586 PgC yr-1 during the 1980s
and one of 0.0926 PgC yr-1 during
the 1990s

Source: Piao et al., 2009, Science

Emissions of CO2 from forests

 Historic human induced land use change 625

Gt CO2 ~1/2 of global forest stocks

 Current losses from deforestration ~ 5-8 Gt

CO2/yr
Scientific assessment showed the world
forests currently are still the emission sources
of greenhouse gas (carbon) in general.

Source: IPCC AR4, 2007

Climate change – impacts on
trees/forests
 Ecosystem
– Productivity, composition, distribution,
regeneration, mortality …
 Site
– Nutrient, water, soil organic matter, …
 Disturbance
– Fires, Blowdown, Storms, Insects, Diseases, ...
 Services
– Wood, Incomes, Biodiversity, Recreation, …
 The impacts of global warming to forest eco-
system can be divided into positive and negative
impacts, but the negative ones is generally more
than the positive ones.
Risks of Climate change on Forest and Forest production
Phenology

Notable global warming impacts over last 30-50 years:

- earlier spring and summer phenology
- longer growing seasons in mid- and higher
latitudes

 Advancement in the phenological phase per decade was

5.1±0.1d
 32-49.9°N latitude 4.2±0.2d
 50-72°N latitude 5.5±0.1d
Source: Root et al, 2003, Nature
Trends in bud burst of
birch and oak in
Germany in the periods
1951–84 and 1984–98,
provide evidence for
an advancement in the
start of the growing
season
 Spring phenology
responses to
Climate Change
from 1981 in China

Advancement

Postponement
 Forest Productivity

Positive Impact: Negative Impact:

-Longer growing -Drought
season -Fire
-Soil -Extreme weather
temperature
-Insects &
-Nutrient cycling diseases
-N deposition -Air quality
-CO2 fertilization (Ozone)
Forest composition & distribution

 production range expansions at higher

elevations and latitudes,
 population declines at lower elevational or
latitudinal limits to species ranges, and
 vulnerability of species with restricted ranges,
leading to local extinctions

(IPCC-AR4, 2007)
Model estimated distribution of tree species
effected by climate change in China

Larix gmelini 落叶松 Pinus koraiensis 红松

Increase
No change
Decrease

Tree species current Future (106ha) Balance

(106ha)
Larix gmelini 43.0 39.0 -8.5%
Pinus koraiensis 29.0 30.0 3.4%
Forest Pests
 How will global climate change affect insect pest
dynamics/outbreaks?
 Some may have more frequent/widespread outbreaks,
 others may have less frequent/widespread outbreaks.

 Complex systems with many interactions

Possibilities
 Develop more rapidly, but so will natural enemies
 Host trees more stressed
 Extreme weather events during susceptible stages
 Uncoupling of insect and host tree phenologies
 Range shift or extension of native pests
 Increase outbreak frequency
 Changes in pest biology and dynamics
 Facilitation of exotic pests
Impacts of Current Mountain Pine Beetle
Outbreak in British Columbia, Canada
A warmer climate
allows the beetle
to migrate north
and potentially
east and then
south !!!
Managed Forest C balance, Canada
(1990-2007)
Carbon Impacts of Mountain Pine Beetle
in Western Canada
30
Impact of Beetle in
Stock Change (Mt C / yr)

20
2009 and 2010:
10 ~73 Mt CO2 yr-1

-10

-20

-30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
No Beetle
With Beetle
Beetle + Increased Salvage
Source: Kurz et al. 2008, Nature
Range shift of Tomicus in southwestern
China

Field collection and Current range Potential range

identification (1950~2000) (2X CO2)
(2007)
Carbon Impacts of insects in China?

Carbon
emission
Forest Fire

 Global warming increased frequency of forest fire

ignited by increasing lightning strike
 Increasing fire frequency；
 Longer fireproofing time；
 Extreme weather events increase forest danger;
 increasing fire intensity
Forest Weather Index (FWI) increment in Southwestern
China under IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios
A2 B2

2020s

2050s

2080s
Impact of 2℃ increment on FWI in Southwestern China
under IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios
Impact of 2℃ increment on High Fire Danger Days in
Southwestern China under IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios
Forest Fire and Carbon
 Fire plays a major role in carbon dynamics: it can
determine the magnitude of net biome productivity
 Combustion: direct loss
 Decomposition of fire-killed vegetation
 Stand renewal: young successional stands have
potential to be greater sinks than mature stagnant
forests
 Most direct carbon loss during fire is usually from
belowground fuel
Planning Burning – a scientific management for
forest fire control
Human actions in response to climate
change

 Mitigation
- Actions to stabilize levels of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (e.g.
carbon dioxide) to slow down the rate of
global climate change

 Adaptation
- Actions to minimize negative impacts of
global climate change, and to take
advantage of the potential benefits
Mitigation or Adaptation?

 Even if CO2 emissions

Magnitude of response
are eliminated,
temperatures will
continue to increase
significantly and take
centuries to stabilize
 A comprehensive Today 100 1000
years Time years
approach to climate
change requires both
mitigation and
adaptation.
Mitigation options in forestry

 Conserving energy
- reducing or capturing emissions of greenhouse
gases
 Maximizing carbon storage by forest
ecosystems
- enhance growth, protect against fire & other
disturbances
 Reducing carbon emissions
through use of forest products
- energy and construction materials
from renewable resources
 Use of forest resources for bio-
energy
Adaptation
 Self-Adaptation
- acclimatize,
- adapt,
- move …
… but only up to a certain limit!
 Human actions：proactive adaptive
strategies
- research & development
- policy making and management
Adaptation options – Forestry and
Landscape management

 What should we do to minimize negative

impacts of Climate Change ?
– Changes in tree species composition
– Promotion of biodiversity
– New tree species
– Close to nature forestry
– “More forests” outside the forests
– New strategy in Forestry
All are making efforts now !!!
The world, China and ourselves.

Jianhua ZHU Ph.D

Institute of Forest Ecology,
Environment & Protection
Chinese Academy of Forestry
Wanshoushan, Haidian District,
Beijing, 100091, P.R.China
Tel: +86-10-62889553
Email: zhucool@caf.ac.cn

Thank you very much !