6/16/2017 ForKashmir,CPECHighlightsDivisions|TheDiplomat

An Indian policeman stands guard during a protest in

Srinagar, against yesterday's civilian killing in Panzgam, in
Kashmir's Kupwara district (April 28, 2017).
Image Credit: REUTERS/Danish Ismail

For Kashmir, CPEC Highlights Divisions

Will New Delhi look to bring peace to Kashmir by accepting the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor?

By Fahad Shah
May 10, 2017

ThedisputedKashmirregionisnowatthecenteroftheambitiousChinaPakistanEconomicCorridor,astheroutepasses
throughtheregionofGilgitBaltistan,partofPakistanadministeredKashmir.IndiasoppositiontotheCPECisbasedprimarily
onitsclaimtoGilgitBaltistan.Chinaspositionhas,however,beenneutralonthemattertodateithasaskedIndiatojoinCPEC
andsolvetheKashmirissuewithPakistanthroughdialogue.

CPEC,worth$56billion,isanetworkofmotorways,railways,hydropower,andotherdevelopmentalprojectsthatisgoingto
giveanewdimensiontoPakistanseconomyanddevelopmentinthecomingyears.TheChinaPakistanrelationshipgoesback
decades,withBeijinghavinglonghelpedIslamabadenrichitsdefenseandnuclearcapabilities.Betweenthethreenuclear
powers,KashmirhasbeenalongstandingconflictaroundhalfamillionIndiantroopscurrentlycontroltheIndianside
againstthemajorityswill.

ThedebateoverKashmirinrelationtotheCPECstartedafterIndiaraisedconcernsthatChinaandPakistanwereusinga
territorythatisanintegralpartofIndia.However,GilgitBaltistanhasbeenpartofPakistancontrolledKashmirwithminor
oppositionfromlocals.InIndiancontrolledKashmir,theviewoftheproindependenceleadersandtheproIndiaregional
governmentisthatKashmircouldbecomeagatewaytoCentralAsia.Thequestion,however,iswhetherthepoliticaldisputeover
KashmirwillbeaffectedbytheriftoverCPECcontinuingbetweenIndiaandthesocalledironbrothers,ChinaandPakistan.

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CanKashmirBecomePartofCPEC?

ThechiefministerofIndiaadministeredKashmir,MehboobaMufti,raisedeyebrowswhenshesupportedCPEC,sayingthat
KashmircouldbecomeagatewaytoCentralAsia.MuftisaidthatKashmircouldbecomeacorridorofeconomicactivityinthe
regionandthecountrycouldreapthebenefitsofeconomicactivitiesgoingonacrosstheLineofControlthedefactoborder
betweenthetwodividedsidesofKashmirsincethe1947warbetweenIndiaandPakistan.

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WhycantwebepartnersineconomicgrowthandsharethebenefitsofprojectslikeCPEC?Muftisaidduringaseminarin
NewDelhiinMarch.Letusmovebeyondskirmishes.Itwouldmaketheregionahubofemergingeconomicopportunities
leadingtocooperationintrade,commerce,tourism,andadventureacrosstheregion.

TherehasnotbeenmuchofadebateovertheimpactofCPEContheKashmirdisputebutlatelysomepeoplehaveshown
concern.SpeakingataseminarinSrinagarinMarch,AndrewSmall,authorofTheChinaPakistanaxis:AsiasNew
Geopolitics,saidthatChinahasmadeitcleartoPakistanthatinorderforCPECtobeasuccess,itwillrequiresomedegreeof
stabilitywithitsneighbors,particularlywithAfghanistanandIndia.

Smalladdedthatasaresultofthis,adifferentsetofpressuresexistaroundCPEC.SomearecomingfromtheChinesesideand
concernhowPakistanhandlescertainissuesofhighsensitivity,includingsomeoftheKashmirimilitantgroupsoperatingoff
itssoiland,inacertainsense,howPakistanhandlestheKashmirissueitself.

TheantiIndia,profreedommovementinKashmircontinues,withPakistansupportingthearmedgroupsthatemergedinthe
late1980s,whenthearmedrebellionagainstIndiabegan.MostofthesegroupsareoperatingfromPakistancontrolled
KashmirandhavelatelygainedmassivegroundintheValley.SincethekillingoficonicrebelcommanderBurhanWaniinlast
July,Kashmirhasbeenengulfedinamassuprising,inwhichatleast100civilianshavebeenkilledandthousandsmore
blindedandmaimed.ThegrowingdemandforfreedominKashmirandtheriseofviolenceisconcerningforChinaaswell.

ThedemandforsolvingtheKashmirdisputeisonlygrowing,withsupportfordialoguebetweenIndiaandPakistanpouringin
fromChinaalso.Duringadailypressbriefing,ChineseForeignMinistryspokespersonHuaChunyingsaidChinaspositionis
consistentandclearcutontheKashmirissue.AsaleftoverissuefromhistorybetweenIndiaandPakistan,itneedstobe
properlysettledthroughdialogueandconsultationbetweenthetwosides.ThedevelopmentoftheChinaPakistanEconomic
CorridordoesnotaffectChinaspositionontheKashmirissue,Huasaid.

However,itremainstobeseenhowmuchpressurewillChinaliketoexertonthetwocountriestohaveameaningfuldialogue
oversolvingthedecadesoldKashmirdispute.Certainly,thesolutionoftheKashmirdispute,wheredemandforfreedomis
gainingmomentum,wouldhaveanimpactonCPECalso.

IndiaContinuestoOpposeCPEC,ButKashmirRemainsAflame

InKashmir,thereislittleornosupportforCPECwhileknowingthatIndiawillnotletChinasinfluenceoverthepolitical
disputegrow.ButKashmiriexpertsandpoliticianshavecontinuouslysuggestedthatresolvingthedisputeandconnectingthe
regiontoCPECcouldbeagamechangerinSouthAsiaandalsosolvethebloodyconflict.

Insyncwiththisidea,manyinPakistanalsosuggestthatIndiamustthinkofjoiningCPEC.Lastmonth,whilespeakingata
conferenceinKarachi,PakistansNationalSecurityAdviser(NSA)LtGen(retd)NasserKhanJanjuasaidthatIndiasinclusion
intheCPECprojectcouldleadtosolvingtheKashmirissue.

IfIndiawantstobecomepartofthecorridor,itmustfirststepforwardandresolve[the]Kashmirissue,saidJanjua.The
worldmusttellIndiatodoso.Theanimosityhastogooutofthewindowforthesakeof[the]wellbeingofthepeople.How
longdoweneedtofightandstruggleagainsttheother?Before[eyeing]militaryandeconomicinterest,itmustseeandaddress
thehumaninterestandresolvetheKashmirdispute.

ItwasagainChiefMinisterMehboobaMuftiwhopitchedcreatingatradecorridorbetweenSouthAsiaandCentralAsia
involvingbothIndiancontrolledKashmirandPakistancontrolledKashmirasitsnucleus.EndorsingCPEC,shesaidthatthe
oilandgasresourcesofCentralAsiaarethenearestandmosteconomicalanswerstoSouthAsianenergyneedsandIndian
controlledKashmircanhelpfosterenergycooperationintheregion.

ThiswillcreatefavorableconditionsforJammuandKashmirtoplayitsnaturalroleofconnectingthetwoemergingeconomic
zonesandliftitselfoutofpoliticalandeconomicfragility.SuchanarrangementwillsupplementtheChinaPakistanEconomic
CorridorthroughthispartofKashmir,saidMufti,duringaspeechinstateLegislativeCouncilinlastJanuary.

However,formerIndiandiplomatandforeignpolicyexpertPhunchokStobdansaysthatCPEChasnotbecomeanissuebetween
India,China,andPakistan.HepointsoutthatonlytheJammuandKashmirchiefministerhasmadeastatementinthisregard.

IhaventseenanyoneinNewDelhiendorsingthepoint.IdontthinkCPECwillbeallowedtomakeanimpactonthesituation
inJammuandKashmir.IndiaisoutrightlyobjectingtoCPECitself.IdontseeIndiajoiningCPECinthepresent
circumstanceitisevenrefusingtoendorseOBOR[OneBelt,OneRoad]project.Itwillremainanacademicissueonly,said
Stobdan.Infact,IndiadidnotsendanyofficialrepresentativestoChinashighprofileBeltandRoadsummitonMay14to15,
largelybecauseofitsobjectionstotheCPECroute.

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ButalongwithSmall,attheseminarinSrinagarinMarch,ProfessorSiddiqWahid,ahistorianandformervicechancellorofthe
IUSTUniversityinKashmir,saidthatthepowerlieswithinstatesortheempires.WeneedtoputtheCPECbeyondIndiaand
Pakistan,andthiswouldputKashmirinalargerSouthAsianandCentralAsianparadigm,saidWahid.

We,thepeopleofKashmir,Ladakh,Jammu,andGilgitBaltistan,areontheperipheryofSouthAsiaandCentralAsiasowe
havetotakeJammuandKashmiroutoftheIndiaPakistanparadigm.IdontwanttothinkofKashmirasabufferzonebecause
ithasconnotationsasashockabsorber.IfCPEChappens,itiswethepeopleofKashmirwhowillhavecontroltohowwecreate
capacity.

Despiteseveralstatements,IndiaremainsopposedtoCPECinordertoopposePakistanandChinasgrowingrelations.While
inKashmir,antiIndiasentimentisgrowingathigherpacethaneverbefore,Indiaremainsunwillingtohavetalkseitherwith
PakistanorwiththeprofreedomleadershipbasedintheValley.NewDelhicontinuestoonlyusehardpowertocontrolthe
civilianuprising.

InthelargerSouthAsianparadigm,ChinaandPakistancontinuewiththeirmultibilliondollarprojectwhileIndiaremains
unabletobringcalmtoKashmir.ThesetrendstogetherfurtherfanthepoliticalembersbetweenIndiaandPakistan,proving
detrimentaltoanypaceinSouthAsia.

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