Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser.

Annual Journal of Hydraulic

B1 (Hydraulic Engineering,
Engineering), JSCE,
Vol. Vol.57,
69, No. 2013, February
4, I_13-I_18, 2013.

HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS OF A CHANGING

CLIMATE ON FLOODS AND DROUGHTS IN
PHILIPPINE RIVER BASINS

Patricia Ann JARANILLA-SANCHEZ1, Toshio KOIKE2, Cho Thanda NYUNT3,

Mohammed RASMY1, Izumi HASEGAWA4, Akiko MATSUMURA5 and Daikichi
OGAWADA5
1Member of JSCE, Ph D., Research Associate, Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo (Tokyo, Japan)
2 Member of JSCE, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo, (Tokyo, Japan)
3 Member of JSCE, Ph.D. student, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo, (Tokyo, Japan)
4 Researcher, M.Sc., Project Researcher, Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo (Tokyo, Japan)
5 Researcher, Applied Hydraulics and Hydrology Group, Nippon Koei, (Ibaraki, Japan)

The development of new water sources to ensure more stable water supply for Metropolitan Manila
is urgently needed especially with the changing climate. The objectives of this study are: 1) to develop
hydrological models in 3 river basins (Angat, Kaliwa and Pampanga) surrounding Metro Manila; 2) to
assess basin-scale hydrological impacts of climate change in terms of a) flooding trends and b) drought
trends. Calibrations of the basins were performed in Angat dam inflows for Angat basin; and Pantabangan
dam, Cabanatuan, Zaragoza, San Isidro and Arayat stream flows for Pampanga river basin. Soil moisture
verification of Pampanga river basin utilized monthly surface soil moistures from both the LDAS-UT and
hydrological model outputs in short vegetation areas. Incorporating bias corrected rainfall and other
parameters from GCMs showed future flooding trends is virtually certain to increase while drought trends
are as likely as not to increase in the uplands but very likely to increase in the flood plains.

Key Words :
Hydrological impacts, WEB-DHM, surface soil moisture, Pampanga River Basin

1. INTRODUCTION including Angat, Kaliwa and Pampanga river basins

Local residents of Metropolitan Manila area in
the Philippines rely on the Angat Dam in the Angat
River Basin for 97% of their domestic water
resources. With the current population increase in
Metropolitan Manila coupled with the looming
threat of climate change, the Kaliwa and Pampanga
river basin are some of the alternative water sources
planned to supplement domestic water supply to
Metro Manila. However, prior to building additional
structures in these alternative basins, it is necessary
to identify at first the projected impacts of extreme
events such as floods and droughts resulting from
climate change.
The objective of this study is to assess the
hydrological impacts of climate change on the water
cycle into Metro Manila and its adjoining areas,
in terms of a) flooding trends and b) drought trends.
To accomplish this, Hydrometeorological
parameters (rainfall, temperature, short wave and
long wave radiation) from the Global circulation
models (GCMs) from the IPCC1 4th Assessment
Report Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Phase three (CMIP3) archived in the Data and
Integration Analysis System (DIAS) were used as
forcing data to determine past and future climate
change projections at the 3 river basins. Currently
these models are state of the art tools used in
determining climate change impacts in different
parts of the world. Previous regional studies on
climate change projections in the Asian monsoon
region show that increases in greenhouse gases
increased in mean precipitation and its variability.

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However, studies show considerably inconclusive
results for droughts.2
Selected General Circulation Models (GCMs)
ensembles were incorporated into the Water and
Energy Budget-Based Distributed Hydrological
Model and 1981-2000 (past) versus 2046-2065
(future) impacts on floods and droughts were
analyzed by focusing on climate change effects on
surface flow. However, due to large uncertainties
associated with GCMs, very large bias (especially in
precipitation) need to be reduced and the mismatch
of grid resolution between GCM outputs and
basin-scale hydrological model inputs. Hence to
minimize the errors resulting from these biases3,4,5, a
3-step bias correction was used prior to model
output utilization. Spatial downscaling by bias
correcting on 21 gauges with observed data were
employed while temporal downscaling by using
specimen hourly rainfall distribution for different
intensities were used. Analysis of flooding trends
were based on the analysis of the 10th percentile of
peak flow trends while for drought, low flow was
analyzed based on the 10th percentile of the 20-year
past drought discharge (355th value descending
order). Long-term drought intensity trends were
analyzed using the standard anomaly Index (SA)6
applied to discharge flows in each basin to quantify
(monthly scale) drought trends for the past versus
the future. This index can be utilized to determine
drought frequency and intensity using at least 20
years of monthly datasets from different
hydrological parameters by fitting an appropriate
distribution pattern to the monthly data and
standardizing and categorizing the deviations from
the mean with increasing dryness (if below 1). For
this study, it is used to quantify drought for
discharge.
2. METHODS
There are several methods employed in this
study: (a) Hydrological model development,
calibration and validation by incorporating
conveyance tunnels and other man-made
hydrological structures that affect river flow, (b)
GCM model selection, rainfall bias correction and
downscaling using 21 rain gauges to represent the
region, (c) incorporation of GCM meteorological
parameters into the hydrological model and, (d)
analysis of climate change trends for floods and
droughts.
(1) Study Area
Three basins are considered in this study. Angat
river basin (1,085km2), Kaliwa River Basin
(included in the Agos river basin, 280km2) and
Pampanga river basin (10,981 km2). Angat and
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Kaliwa lie along the Cordillera Mountain ranges
while Pampanga river basin lies along and on the
western side of the ranges. This difference in
location gives very distinct rainfall distribution in
the largest basin compared to the other two.
Angat river basin consists mostly of dense
secondary forests (broadleaf deciduous trees); and
clay and clay loam soils. The Umiray-Angat
conveyance tunnel (available data: 2001-2010) was
incorporated into the model calibration (2003) and
validation (2001-2009). Kaliwa river basin consists
of a combination of dense secondary forests and
short vegetation; and clay loam soil. There are no
streamflow gauges in this basin yet so natural flow
is assumed in the whole river basin assuming similar
soil parameters with nearby Angat river basin.
On the other hand, the Pampanga river basins
land use consists of mostly agriculture or C3
grasslands. The local soils consist of mostly clay
loam, sandy clay loam, sandy loam and clay. The
Casecnan trans-basin tunnel, Aurora trans-basin
channel and Masiway spillway outflow were
included in the simulations.
(2) Water and Energy Budget-based Distributed
Hydrological Model (WEB-DHM)
The WEB-DHM was developed by fully
coupling a land-surface model, the simple biosphere
scheme, (SiB2)7), with a geomorphology-based
hydrological model (GBHM)8). The model enabled
consistent descriptions of water, energy and CO2
fluxes at the basin scale. The model physically
described ET using a biophysical land surface
scheme for simultaneously simulating heat,
moisture, and CO2 fluxes in the
soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT)
processes.9),10) Inputs into the model consist of static
(constant) and dynamic (changing temporally)
parameters.
(a)Static parameters
The digital elevation map was based on the
90-m Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM)
Digital Elevation Database (V4.1) produced by
NASA but reprocessed by the CGIAR Consortium
for Spatial Information (CTGIAR-CSI) re-projected
from geographic to UTM (zone 51) and re-sampled
to 500m x 500m grid size. Local land use map
reclassified into SiB2 land use classification and
local soil map reclassified to FAO classification
were also re-sampled to 500m x 500m grid size and
assumed to have a homogeneous land use and soil
type for each grid.
(b)Dynamic parameters
Meteorological parameters from both local
gauges (12 gauges) are: surface air temperature (K),
relative humidity (%), total cloud cover (%),
downward long wave and short wave radiation flux
at surface (W/m2). Temperature was temporally
downscaled from daily to hourly using sine
functions for 3 time slices (sunrise to time to
maximum temperature (Ho), from Ho to sunset, and
from sunset to sunrise of the next day) within 24
hours11). The downward solar radiation was
estimated from sunshine duration, temperature and
humidity using a hybrid model.12) Longwave
radiation was estimated from temperature, relative
humidity, pressure and solar radiation using the
relationship between solar radiation and longwave
radiation.13) Rainfall was from daily data in 12
meteorological gauge stations and 35 synoptic
stations. These were spatially distributed and
downscaled by inverse distance weighing
interpolation (IDW). The Nash Coefficients(Nash)14)
and relative errors(RE) were used in the calibrations
of the 3 basins. Due to possible limitations of in-situ
data availability, it is necessary to consider
satellite-based rainfall products to be widely applied
to catchment-scale impact studies. Soil moisture
information in the Philippines is not readily
available for all locations and time scales.
(3) GCM Model Selection, Bias Correction and
Data incorporation into WEB-DHM
GCM model selection was based on the ability
Fig.1. River network, land use and calibrations in Pampanga, Angat and Kaliwa river basins.
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of the GCM to represent regional climate of the area
under investigation. Seven parameters were
considered in selecting the appropriate GCMs that
comprise the ensemble: precipitation, longwave
radiation, sea surface temperature, sea level
pressure, air temperature, meridional and zonal
wind. A simple index counter was used for
identifying the modes which had above average
spatial correlation and below average RMSE
prioritizing models with good rainfall patterns. The
6 models selected are: gfdl_cm2_0, gfdl_cm2_1,
ipsl_cm4, ingv_echam4 and miroc3_2_medres.
An improved 3-step bias correction method was
used to correct rainfall15) to account for rainfall
extremes, normal rainfall and no rain days while no
bias correction was done for the other
meteorological parameters (temperature, short wave
and long wave radiation).
Spatial downscaling was done by correcting the
biases on each of 21 selected rain gauge data,
temporally downscaling them using average hourly
rainfall factors from several rain gauges and
re-gridding the hourly rainfall data. Hence this
method assumes that future rainfall will have similar
climatology and distribution as that of past rainfall.
Temperature, short wave and long wave radiation
were based on similar patterns as those in observed
data.
 Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, JSCE, VOL.42, 1998, February
(4) Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS-UT)
Satellite-based low-frequency microwave
brightness temperature is strongly affected by
near-surface soil moisture so it can be assimilated
into a land-surface model to improve modeling of
soil moisture and the surface energy budget. Soil
moisture verification in the basin used the Land
Data Assimilation System developed by the
University of Tokyo (LDAS-UT)16) to estimate soil
moisture and surface temperature. LDAS-UT
consists of a land surface model (LSM) and
radiative transfer model (RTM) for calculating
surface fluxes and soil moisture by estimating the
microwave brightness temperature and utilizing an
optimization scheme to determine optimal values of
soil moisture by minimizing the difference between
modeled and observed brightness temperature.
3. RESULTS
(1) Calibration of the River Basin
Calibration of Angat dam inflow was done by
comparing dam inflows for the year 2003 ,
Nash=0.72, RE=23%) considering peak discharges
and low flows. The observed records were originally
collected as reservoir elevation so the low flows in
the observed data had very large day to day
variation. The difference in some of the peak flows
are as a result of the simplification in the temporal
downscaling of daily to hourly rainfall. Soil
parameters were adjusted from baseline information
available in the FAO global dataset.
Currently there are no installed streamflow
gauges in Kaliwa river basin. Hence calibration of
this basin was done by assuming similar soil
properties for the same soil types in Angat and
Kaliwa.
Calibration in the Pampanga river basin was
done for 2002 upstream in Pantabangan dam
(Nash=0.5, RE=3.8%), Cabanatuan (Nash=0.05,
RE=83%), Zaragoza (Nash=0.35, RE=34%), San
Isidro (Nash=0.22, RE=50%) and 2001 for Arayat
streamflow gauge (Nash=0.31, RE=24%). Some of
the very low Nash are due to the sparse distribution
of poor quality rainfall data in some areas covering
this river basin.
(2) Temporal comparison of soil moisture
Fig.2 Comparison of surface soil moistures from LDAS-UT and
WEB-DHM in Zaragoza Station, Pampanga River Basin.
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To supplement validation of calibrated
WEB-DHM outputs, monthly surface soil moisture
outputs of LDAS-UT were compared with surface
soil moisture outputs from WEB-DHM. Results
showed that the temporal behavior of soil moisture
from basin scale hydrological modeling and larger
scale estimation using LDAS-UT can be used to
estimate large scale soil moisture of the area. RE
was found to be 2.23%. Currently there are some
differences in the transition between wet and dry
season due primarily to: 1.) Coarser resolution grid
of LDAS-UT as compared to that of WEB-DHM,
2.) differences in rainfall input between LDAS-UT
(uses TRMM rainfall) and WEB-DHM (uses
observed rainfall), and 3.)the scale of comparison
between LDAS-UT(grid point) and WEB-DHM
(basin average upstream of Zaragosa gauge).
However, results show that the estimations of the
regional surface soil moistures from LDAS-UT are
very similar with those from basin scale
hydrological simulations hence, they can be used to
verify past basin scale soil moisture trends
especially in areas with short vegetation in areas
with no observed soil moistures. Further verification
of these values should be done when soil moisture
information become available in the future.
Currently, the simulated soil moistures assimilated
by LDAS-UT and simulated by WEB-DHM were
not used to project future climate change effects on
basin scale droughts since the focus of the study was
mainly on the behavior of discharge during extreme
events.
(3) Peak flow Trends
Peak flow trends can be good indicators of
future floods. Results after ranking (in descending
order) the past and future 20 years daily discharge
show similar patterns can be expected in the near
future. However, the 10th percentile peak daily
discharges for Angat, Kaliwa and Pampanga river
basins showed that all 6 models of each basin had
higher peak discharges in the future. This indicates a
virtually certain (100% probability) increase in
possible flood events in the future. (Table 1, 2 and
3, column 1)
In all the 3 basins, highest peak discharge can go
from 1.5x to 6x increase from past values while the
remaining 19 peak flows show only a slightly higher
(1x) to double (2x) the past peak values. These
simulations were under the assumption that
climatology will be similar in the past and in the
future. However, even after bias correction and
temporal downscaling, only the intensities and
frequency of the extreme events can be simulated.
Further studies are still needed to improve the
timing as to when the extreme events occur. Hence,
careful considerations of these assumptions are chance of drought in the future while a 90% chance
needed prior to application of the results. of increasing drought conditions in the future in
Pampanga river basin. This difference is due mainly
(4) Drought Trends to the local land use conditions in the region and the
Base flow trends were used to determine general location of the basins (upland or in the flood
drought trends from climate change. The 355th rank plains).
of the past climatologically averaged daily discharge The presence of forest cover in the 2 smaller
simulation was used as the basis of drought basins in addition to the greater intensity rainfall
discharge. The 10th percentile (second lowest 355th patterns buffered the effects of drought in the
rank base flow) was additionally used to identify smaller basins compared to that of Pampanga were
drought discharge for the 20 year simulation in past croplands and low rainfall predominate the area.
GCMs. Table 1, 2 and 3 show the summary of The colors in the tables below show this large
drought trend changes in future GCMs compared to uncertainty in drought trends for Angat and Kaliwa
past average drought discharge and 10th percentile 50% of the models show increasing drought trends
drought discharge. The number of days that base (red) while the remaining 50% show decreasing
flow was less than past drought discharge was drought discharge (blue). Five out of 6 (83%) of the
identified as well as the longest number of days models for Pampanga showed increasing drought
each year that is below average drought discharge. trends.
Angat and Kaliwa river basin show a 50-60%
Table 1 Summary of Flooding and drought trends in future GCMs for Angat dam Inflows.
GCM Flooding trends Drought # of days/year Upper Limit of # of days/year Longest # of Change in SA
Model 10th percentile Discharge that baseflow Drought that baseflow days for each (%)
average Peak Flow (m3/s) < past drought Discharge < past drought year below
(m3/s) (average 355th discharge (m3/s) discharge average
rank) (average of 10th percentile (10th drought
355th rank) of 355th rank percentile of discharge
355th rank)
Past Future Past Future Past Future Past Future Past Future Past Future ED SD MD
MIROC 983.50 1456.98 0.144 0.151 27 34 0.123 0.107 2 13 100 135 -- 50 14
IPSL 1149.05 1921.72 1.85 6.46 22 0 1.6 5.939 2 0 59 0 -- -- 0
INGV 1070.14 1435.74 0.17 0.194 30 11 0.138 0.156 3 0 104 76 -- -66 25
GFDL_1 1081.93 1550.13 0.156 0.173 39 28 0.123 0.131 1 0 134 88 -- -- -20
GFDL_0 1172.05 1380.76 0.174 0.175 44 64 0.122 0.116 3 13 167 255 -100 50 60
CSIRO 737.92 2342.20 0.15 0.154 37 34 0.13 0.11 5 15 193 191 -- -100 -100
Table 2 Summary of drought trends from GCMs for Kaliwa river basin.
GCM Flooding trends Drought # of days/year Upper Limit of # of days/year Longest # of Change in SA
Model 10th percentile Discharge that baseflow Drought that baseflow days for each (%)
average Peak Flow (m3/s) < past drought Discharge < past drought year below
(m3/s) (average 355th discharge (m3/s) discharge (10th average
rank) (average of 10th percentile percentile of drought
355th rank) of 355th rank 355th rank) discharge
Past Future Past Future Past Future Past Future Past Future Past Future ED SD MD
MIROC 588.17 837.90 0.025 0.021 26 60 0.017 0.016 1 12 79 139 -- -50 -15
IPSL 512.57 841.53 2.42 2.73 27 12 1.857 2.201 2 0 99 38 -- -- 0
INGV 612.31 762.52 0.028 0.023 22 45 0.018 0.016 1 7 60 91 -- -66 -8
GFDL_1 624.19 942.52 0.68 0.023 38 192 0.515 0.017 4 184 151 286 -- -- -26
GFDL_0 691.82 825.65 0.034 0.035 34 61.1 0.02 0.023 1 0 133 233 -- -66 0
CSIRO 592.94 1806.19 0.05 0.043 55 49 0.021 0.025 1 0 157 149 -- -- -100
Table 3. Summary of flooding and drought trends from GCMs in San Isidro gauge, Pampanga River Basin
GCM Flooding trends Drought # of days/year Upper Limit of # of days/year Longest # of Change in SA
Model 10th percentile Discharge that baseflow Drought that baseflow days (for each (%)
average Peak Flow (m3/s) < past drought Discharge < past drought year below
(m3/s) (average 355th discharge (m3/s) discharge (10th average
rank) (average of 10th percentile percentile of drought
355th rank) of 355th rank 355th rank) discharge)
Past Future Past Future Past Future Past Future Past Future Past Future ED SD MD
MIROC 2815.88 4280.53 3.84 2.529 22 34 0.899 0.58 3 9 93 106 -50 -75 -77
IPSL 3046.52 4698.92 11.78 12.547 19 19 3.791 4.209 2 1 54 87 -- 33 0
INGV 3105.22 4061.48 5.05 3.96 18 22 1.528 1.451 3 5 54 57 -- -100 18
GFDL_1 3257.88 4609.88 4.78 2.93 30 43 0.749 0.665 2 2.95 96 111 100 0 37
GFDL_0 3759.39 4319.42 3.64 2.43 29 34 0.746 0.695 5 6 100 124 -- 33 -13
CSIRO 2216.33 5955.37 12.66 9.948 21 35 2.763 1.905 2 7 57 79 -- -- 62
Red=drier in future; more frequent below drought discharge Blue=wetter in future; less frequently below drought discharge
ED=Extremely Dry condition SD=Severely Dry condition MD=Moderately Dry condition

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 Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, JSCE, VOL.42, 1998, February
(5) Longer duration drought trends
The SA drought index6) was used to project
longer duration (at least 1 month) drying trends in
the future (see SA trends in the last columns of
Tables 1, 2, 3). For Angat, 3 models increase, 2
models remain the same and 1 model decreased
while for Kaliwa, 4 models decreased while 2
models remained the same.
Basin-scale average discharge for the entire
Pampanga river basin showed that only miroc model
increased in all SA categories while the rest showed
different degrees of increase and decrease in the
categories. The only difference is the presence of
some extremely dry conditions in 3 of the models.
5. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
Based on results from the 3 basins, it is virtually
certain that larger floods will occur more often in
the future. On the other hand, the results also
suggested that severe droughts will very likely occur
in the Pampanga river basin but about as likely as
not in Angat and Kaliwa basins with local
conditions playing a very important role in how
floods and droughts affect them. However, careful
consideration of uncertainty should be considered
for water resource management planning factoring
in future changes in climate in these basins.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT:
This research was implemented as part of a project of
the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) for
The study of Water Security Master Plan for Metro
Manila and its Adjoining Areas, Data Integration and
Analysis System (DIAS) project 2011-2015 and the
Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation
(RECCA) project.
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