MODELLING EBOLA USING AN

SIR MODEL
HL Maths Exploration

NOVEMBER 25, 2014

CANDIATE: METHUSHAA SUTHANTHIRAKUMARAN
School: North London Collegiate School
Teacher: Ms Copin
 Modelling Ebola using an SIR model 2014

Contents
1. Introduction and aim .......................................................................................................... 2

2. Common sense description of the SIR model .................................................................... 3

Parameterisation of the model .......................................................................................... 4

3. Running the SIR model on the initial figures of the Ebola Outbreak in Liberia in 2014 .. 6

Graphical interpretation .................................................................................................... 8

Validity of the model ...................................................................................................... 10

Advantages ..................................................................................................................... 10

Disadvantages ................................................................................................................. 11

4. Comparing the model to actual figures and trying to improve it ..................................... 12

5. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 15

6. Bibliography .................................................................................................................... 17

1
 Modelling Ebola using an SIR model 2014

Using the SIR model for Ebola outbreaks

1. Introduction and aim
The Ebola virus disease was first discovered in 1976 in the present Democratic Republic of Congo1.
Since then, there have been many outbreaks, with the greatest being the current 2014 outbreak2 which
has spread through many countries. Hoping to study medicine in the future and eventually becoming a
doctor, I became fascinated with the repetition of the outbreak of Ebola and the fact that despite the
advancements in technology, little was done in preparation for it. Therefore, by combining my interest
in mathematics which lies in modelling functions along with curiosity for the repetition of the disease,
I decided to model the Ebola Epidemics in Liberia in 2014 and Democratic Republic of Congo 1976
and compare their spread using an SIR3 model. An SIR model is an epidemiological model which
measures the number of people infected with a particular disease over a period of time using three
fundamental equations4.

Therefore in doing so, I aim to develop my understanding on the mathematics of the SIR model and
about its possible limitations for discussing the spread of the disease, in turn, this should shed light on
the spread of Ebola.

In order to do this, I will:

Describe the SIR model
Use the model on the initial data from the outbreak in Liberia 2014
Compare the model with real data Liberia 2014

1
"Ebola Virus Disease." WHO. N.p., n.d. Web. 17 Nov. 2014.
2
"2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa." Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, 06 Mar. 2015. Web. 07 Nov. 2014.
3
"Kermack-McKendrick Model." -- from Wolfram MathWorld. N.p., n.d. Web. 17 Nov. 2014.
4
"The Mathematics of Diseases." The Mathematics of Diseases. N.p., n.d. Web. 17 Nov. 2014.

2
 Modelling Ebola using an SIR model 2014

2. Common sense description of the SIR model

The SIR model is used to illustrate the transfer of the epidemic through the interaction of the
following three different variables:
= number of people that are susceptible to Ebola
= number of people infected with Ebola
= number of people recovered from Ebola with total immunity

It makes sense to assume that a fixed population of people, whereby there are no births and deaths
by natural cause, consists of the number of people susceptible plus the number of people infected plus
number of people resistant:
= + + 5

This is because the population is fixed and therefore, there are only three compartments in which the
population may fit into. Thus, the total of the number of people susceptible infected and recovered in
equivalent to the total population. The assumption that is fixed, with no births or deaths, makes
sense given 60 days, although it is a simplification.

These variables change over time, so I will define the variable = time in days. I will set = 0 at the
start of August 2014.

The model uses two parameters which can be used calibrate it, and with , > 0. Given these
parameters, the model uses 3 differential equations. These will be different numbers for any given
disease and situation, and will depend on things like method of transmission, and the contact rate. I
will calculate those later using actual data for the current Ebola epidemic mathematically, thought of
as contrast of population, but I want to first give an idea of why these equations are true and what
these might mean.

Equation 1:
= 6

In Equation 1, means the rate of change of the number of people susceptible to the disease over

time. decreases proportionally to because in order to become infected, you are no longer

5
Dolgoarshinnykh, Regina, Columbia University, Steven P. Lalley, and University Of Chicag. "Epidemic
Modeling: SIRS Models." Epidemic Modeling: SIRS Models (n.d.): n. pag. Web.
6
"Modelling Infectious Diseases." IB Maths Resources from British International School Phuket. N.p., 17 May
2014. Web. 04 Nov. 2014.

3
 Modelling Ebola using an SIR model 2014

susceptible to the diseases any more. Since the only way to leave the set of susceptible people is
through becoming infected with the disease itself, therefore the number of people who are susceptible
to the disease is determined by the number of people who are already susceptible, the number of
individuals who are already infected and the amount of contact between the susceptible and infected.
An assumption is made that every individual has the same probability of becoming infected with the
disease. In real life, this is highly improbable and it is a limitation that I discuss later. The equation
also decreases proportionally to because individuals are repeatedly being removed from the
susceptible section and being transferred into the infectious section.

Equation 2:
= 7

In equation 2,
means the rate of change of the number of people recovered over time. This

illustrates that the rate of the number of people recovering is dependent upon the number of people
infected as in order to become recovered. This is because, in order to become recovered from a
disease, one must have been infected at some point over a certain period of time and if the duration of
time is shorter, then the rate of becoming infected increases. Therefore, this increases proportionally
with the rate of the disease being infected.

Equation 3: = 8


In equation 3, means the rate of change of the number of people infected. This is dependent on the

number of people susceptible and the number of people infected as well as the infection rate of the
disease between the two compartments. As the population of increases, the population of

decreases, therefore the rate at which increases is inversely proportional to the because in order

for there to be more infected people, there must be a decrease in the number of susceptible people.

Thus, this equation is a consequence of the fact that: = into which we can substitute

equation 1 and 2.

Parameterisation of the model

In order to calculate (the rate of infection) and (the rate of recovery), it helps to define two more
parameters.

7
"Modelling Infectious Diseases." IB Maths Resources from British International School Phuket. N.p., 17 May
2014. Web. 04 Nov. 2014.
8
"Modelling Infectious Diseases." IB Maths Resources from British International School Phuket. N.p., 17 May
2014. Web. 04 Nov. 2014.

4
 Modelling Ebola using an SIR model 2014

= Duration of disease for those recovered

= Mortality rate for those who die per day (0.7 for Ebola)

This leads to two further equations.

1 9
Equation 4: =

In equation 4, the rate at which the disease is spread can be found by dividing 1 by the duration of the
disease. This is because; a certain individual can only experience one recovery in a given period of
time. For example if the duration of the infective period is 10 days, then the rate at which those who
are infected become recovered is:
1
10
= 0.1 = 10%
5
10
Equation 5: =

Equation 5 illustrates that the infection rate of the disease is dependent upon the mortality rate and the
number of people susceptible to the disease. It demonstrates the rate at which the disease passes from
a susceptible individual to an infected individual. The value for always lies between 0 and 1,
because a value of 1 suggests 100% infection rate and a value of 0 suggests 0% infection rate. For
example, if the mortality rate of the population is 50% and the number of people susceptible is 100,
then the rate in infection will be calculated as follows:
0.5
= = 0.005
100

9
"Modelling Infectious Diseases." IB Maths Resources from British International School Phuket. N.p., 17 May
2014. Web. 04 Nov. 2014.
10
"The Spread Of Infectious Diseases." The British Medical Journal 2.1281 (1885): 108. Web.

5
 Modelling Ebola using an SIR model 2014

3. Running the SIR model on the initial figures of the Ebola

Outbreak in Liberia in 2014
If we now take the example of the Ebola outbreak in Liberia 2014, we can assign the parameters with
the following values. The total population of Liberia, N = 429400011, and according to data from
WHO12, the number of people infected, I = 84613 and the number of people dead is 48114. Seeing as R,
includes the number of people who have received permanent immunity, this includes those who have
died as they have permanent immunity, in addition to those who have recovered with permanent
immunity.

Therefore, number of people recovered = 481 + (0.3 846) = 735

I will now use this data to provide the parameters with the following values.

= 4294000
= 846
= 735
Therefore, = + = 4294000 (735 + 846) = 4292419

The duration of the disease ranges from 2 to 18 days, therefore we could roughly estimate the duration
of the disease at the midpoint, i.e. 10 days.
= 10
1
= = 0.1
10

According to WHO, the mortality rate of Ebola is 0.715 and the number of people susceptible is
4292419.
0.7
Therefore from equation 5, (the rate of infection) = 4292419
= 1.63 107

11
"Appendix: Additional Results and Technical Notes for the EbolaResponse Modeling Tool." Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 23 Sept. 2014. Web. 08 Nov.
2014.
12
"Ebola Virus Disease Update - West Africa." WHO. N.p., n.d. Web. 08 Nov. 2014
13
"Ebola Virus Disease Update - West Africa." WHO. N.p., n.d. Web. 24 Nov. 2014.
14
"Ebola Virus Disease Update - West Africa." WHO. N.p., n.d. Web. 24 Nov. 2014.
15
"WHO Finds 70 Percent Ebola Mortality Rate." - Africa. N.p., n.d. Web. 08 Nov. 2014.

6
 Modelling Ebola using an SIR model 2014

In order to use the SIR model to predict the evolution of the disease, it would be helpful if we could
solve the system of differential equations. Unfortunately, we cannot completely solve these equations
with an explicit formula solution16.

Therefore, I will use a numerical approach, as follows. For each day, I will calculate the values of

,

using equations 1, 2 and 3. Then assume that the value for the following day is the

previous value + for that point in time.

I will do this explicitly for the transition from t = 0 to t = 1. Using equations 1, 2 and 3 from earlier,
the following values for the three rates of change of S, I and R can be calculated.

|
=0
= ( 1.63 107 ) 846 4292419= -581

|
=0
= (1.6 107 ) (0.1 846) = 496

|
=0
= 0.1 846 = 85

Therefore, at t=1,
S = 4292419 581 = 4291838
I will now use excel to do this over a two month period, by putting in the formulae in the
following way. I defined in as g in cell I1 and as b in cell J3:

A B C D E F G H I J
1 T S I R dS/dt dI/dt dR/dt S+I+R gamma beta
B2 + C2 + b
2 T B2 C2 D2 E2 F2 G2 g
D2
B*I3*B3 B3+E3+C2+ b
3 t+1 B3+E3 C2+F2 D2+G2 -g*I3*B3 g*I3 g
g*I3 F2+D2+G2

This generates the following table:

Susceptible Infected Recovered
t S I R ds/dt dI/dt dr/dt S+I+R
0 4292419 846 735 -581 496 85 4294000
1 4291838 1342 820 -922 788 134 4294000
2 4290916 2130 954 -1462 1249 213 4294000
3 4289454 3379 1167 -2319 1981 338 4294000
4 4287134 5361 1505 -3677 3141 536 4294000
5 4283457 8502 2041 -5827 4977 850 4294000
6 4277631 13478 2891 -9225 7877 1348 4294000
7 4268406 21355 4239 -14585 12449 2136 4294000
8 4253821 33804 6374 -23008 19627 3380 4294000
9 4230814 53432 9755 -36169 30826 5343 4294000
10 4194644 84258 15098 -56549 48123 8426 4294000
11 4138095 132381 23524 -87649 74411 13238 4294000
12 4050446 206792 36762 -134016 113337 20679 4294000

16
Matemtic, Materials. "MAT 2." Publicaci Electrnica De Divulgaci Del Departament De Matemtiques
De La Universitat Autnoma De Barcelona (n.d.): n. pag. Www.mat.uab.cat/matmat. 01 July 2013. Web. 12
Nov. 2014.

7
 Modelling Ebola using an SIR model 2014

13 3916430 320129 57441 -200602 168589 32013 4294000

14 3715828 488718 89454 -290559 241687 48872 4294000
15 3425269 730405 138326 -400294 327253 73041 4294000
16 3024975 1057658 211366 -511902 406137 105766 4294000
17 2513073 1463795 317132 -588580 442200 146379 4294000
18 1924493 1905995 463512 -586892 396292 190600 4294000
19 1337601 2302288 654111 -492727 262498 230229 4294000
20 844874 2564786 884340 -346707 90229 256479 4294000
21 498167 2655015 1140819 -211622 -53879 265501 4294000
22 286544 2601136 1406320 -119255 -140859 260114 4294000
23 167290 2460277 1666434 -65853 -180175 246028 4294000
24 101437 2280102 1912461 -37006 -191004 228010 4294000
25 64431 2089097 2140471 -21537 -187373 208910 4294000
26 42895 1901724 2349381 -13052 -177121 190172 4294000
27 29843 1724604 2539554 -8235 -164226 172460 4294000
28 21608 1560378 2712014 -5395 -150643 156038 4294000
29 16213 1409735 2868052 -3657 -137316 140973 4294000
30 12556 1272418 3009025 -2556 -124686 127242 4294000
31 10000 1147733 3136267 -1836 -112937 114773 4294000
32 8164 1034796 3251040 -1352 -102128 103480 4294000
33 6812 932668 3354520 -1017 -92250 93267 4294000
34 5796 840418 3447787 -779 -83262 84042 4294000
35 5016 757155 3531828 -608 -75108 75716 4294000
36 4409 682047 3607544 -481 -67724 68205 4294000
37 3927 614324 3675749 -386 -61046 61432 4294000
38 3541 553277 3737181 -313 -55014 55328 4294000
39 3228 498263 3792509 -257 -49569 49826 4294000
40 2971 448694 3842335 -213 -44656 44869 4294000
41 2757 404038 3887205 -178 -40226 40404 4294000
42 2579 363813 3927608 -150 -36231 36381 4294000
43 2429 327581 3963990 -127 -32631 32758 4294000
44 2302 294951 3996748 -109 -29386 29495 4294000
45 2193 265564 4026243 -93 -26463 26556 4294000
46 2100 239101 4052799 -80 -23830 23910 4294000
47 2019 215271 4076709 -70 -21458 21527 4294000
48 1950 193814 4098236 -60 -19321 19381 4294000
49 1889 174493 4117618 -53 -17397 17449 4294000
50 1837 157096 4135067 -46 -15663 15710 4294000
51 1791 141433 4150777 -41 -14103 14143 4294000
52 1750 127330 4164920 -36 -12697 12733 4294000
53 1714 114633 4177653 -31 -11432 11463 4294000
54 1683 103201 4189116 -28 -10292 10320 4294000
55 1655 92909 4199436 -25 -9266 9291 4294000
56 1631 83642 4208727 -22 -8342 8364 4294000
57 1609 75300 4217091 -19 -7511 7530 4294000
58 1589 67789 4224621 -17 -6762 6779 4294000
59 1572 61028 4231400 -15 -6087 6103 4294000
60 1557 54940 4237503 -14 -5480 5494 4294000

Graphical interpretation

From this table, we can plot S, I, R against t.

8
 Modelling Ebola using an SIR model 2014

SIR Model
Model for
for the
theEbola
Ebolaoutbreak
outbreakininLiberia,
Liberia,August
August2014
2014
4500000
4500000
4000000
4000000
3500000
people

3500000
ofpeople

3000000
3000000
2500000
2500000 SS
Number of

2000000 I
Number

2000000
1500000
1500000 R
R
1000000
1000000 N
500000 N
500000
0
0
0
0
10
10
2020
30
30
40 40
5050
60
60
Time
Time(days)
(days) from
from August
August 2014 over aa two
2014 over twomonth
monthperiod
period

As expected, this shows that initially, the number of people infected increases steeply, however, over
a longer period of time, the numbers eventually decrease. This happens simultaneously as the number
of people recovered increases because as those infected decreases, they are being transferred into the
recovered category. The main reason is due to the increased awareness of the disease leasing to
further medical support being given in order to help combat the transmission of the disease.
Furthermore, an increased awareness results in more people being aware of methods of protection.
The steep increase in the beginning of the first 15 days is most likely to be due to the great uncertainty
that lied with Ebola allowing a greater rate of transmission. The peak of the graph illustrates the
maximum number of people ever to be infected and after this point, there is a transition whereby the
numbers decrease.

The number of people susceptible to the disease remains constant for the first 10 days, and then it
steeply decreases to create a negative sigmoidal curve. This means that it is shaped like the letter S,
but in reverse. It must be noted that the number of people never reaches 0, and only tends towards it
allowing the epidemic to reoccur in the future. The only way for the number of susceptible to reach 0
is through the vaccination as this acts as a vehicle to remove the disease from the population. The
number of people susceptible remains constant at the beginning, which is similar to the small increase
in the number of people infected. However, as there are more people infected, there is a steep decline
in the number of people susceptible to the disease. This is because being the number of people
infected comes from the number of people susceptible and they are connected. Therefore, as the
number of people infected begins to decline, the number of people susceptible begins to level off.
This is due to the fact that everyone infected is eventually becoming recovered, thus reducing the
numbers of those who are infected. Therefore, there is very little change in the number of people
susceptible to the disease towards the end of the two month period.

9
 Modelling Ebola using an SIR model 2014

The number of people recovered from the disease, slowly increase at the beginning with the slow rate
of infection. However, as the number of people infected increases dramatically, this leads to a
consequent steep increase with the number of people recovered, until eventually levelling off
simultaneously to the number of people susceptible. The line illustrating the number of people
recovering increases concurrently as the number of people susceptible decreases. This is because
susceptibility and recovery are inversely proportional to one another. However, the number of people
recovered from the disease, never reaches the total population, and only tends towards it.
Furthermore, this graph illustrates cumulative distributions through the positive sigmoidal curve on
the graph.

The graph also shows that the total population remains constant throughout the two month period via
a linear correlation. This is because, as established earlier, = + + and in order to detect a
change in something we need to differentiate it. In this case, the graph suggests no change, so the
differentiation must be equivalent to 0.

Therefore, ( + + ) = + + and by substituting the differential equations 1, 2 and 3, we

get the following:
( + + ) = + + = 0

Thus, there is no change in the population and it will remain constant in a given period of time.

The graph is useful because it allows me to see the interaction between the different variables and it is
interesting to relate it to differentiation to determine the changes over time.

Validity of the model

However, in order for the model to be valid and allow to inform government policy, it obviously
needs to correspond fairly close to reality. Before checking against the graph, there are already clear
advantages and disadvantages to this model:

Advantages

The advantages to the model include:

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 Modelling Ebola using an SIR model 2014

1. It is very quick to model the data having found the values for the respective parameters and transition
probabilities to allow immediate assessment of the condition that is present. This results in instant
evaluation of the situation as well as valid prediction of the spread of disease in the future.
2. The model is widely used and also widely understood by the medical community making it easier to
explain the effects of the epidemic
3. This model is clear and easy to understand in order to distinguish between the number of people
susceptible, infected and recovered
4. The mechanism to create the data is flexible, allowing it to be easily altered if certain values are
incorrect or have changed
5. It is computationally cheap and there are other software available with very small time intervals
allowing it to be more accurate which I could not complete in excel.
Disadvantages

The disadvantages to the model include:

1. The calculation of the beta values and gamma values are often inaccurate because small deviation
from the correct value can result in great changes in the overall model. For example, changing the
gamma value from 0.1 to 0.3 can lead to the following changes:

Gamma value of 0.1 Gamma value of 0.3

4500000 4500000
4000000 4000000
3500000 3500000
3000000 3000000
S S
Number of 2500000 Number of 2500000
people 2000000 I people 2000000 I
1500000 R 1500000 R
1000000 N 1000000 N
500000 500000
0 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Time (days) from August 2014 over a two month period Time (days) from August 2014 over a two month period

2. The data itself can be fairly unreliable especially, in countries where death counts are difficult to
manage. (For the Ebola case, although the numbers seem fairly high, there is a high probability that
there were far more people infected)
3. In order for the model to be calculated correctly, you need the right form of data including the number
of people infected, recovered and susceptible. This data can be very particular and calculating the
number of people susceptible as the number of people left over from taking away the number of
people infected and recovered from the total population, is not always the most reliable method.
4. This model is only effective for small environments with heterogeneous population density
distribution

11
 Modelling Ebola using an SIR model 2014

4. Comparing the model to actual figures and trying to improve it

The table below compares the data collected from the model for the number of people infected and the
real life data17 of the number of people infected. From this, I can plot a graph using excel.

Time I model I actual Comparison of the model data to the actual data for
(days) the number of people infected
10 84258 1378
3000000
15 730405 1680 Number of people infected

20 2564786 1871 2500000

25 2089097 2046 2000000

30 1272418 2407 1500000
35 757155 3022
1000000
40 448694 3280
500000
45 265564 3696
50 157096 3834 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
55 92909 4076
60 54940 4262 I model I actual

As the graph demonstrates, the real data does not correspond very well to the data received from the
model. Although the actual data may seem to follow a straight like graph, this is untrue as it is only
depicted in this manner due to the limitations on the axis of the graph. The difference between the real
life data and the data from the model is so vast that the straight line looks like a graph of = 0.
Therefore, I decided to plot is separately:

Real data for the number of people infected

1200
Number of people infected

1000
800
600
400 I Actual
200
0
0 20 40 60 80
Time (days)

17
"Modeling Ebola in West Africa: Cumulative Cases by Date of Reporting." Contagious Disease Surveillance.
N.p., n.d. Web. 24 Nov. 2014.

12
 Modelling Ebola using an SIR model 2014

Therefore, this shows that the model has significantly overestimated the number of people who will
become infected with Ebola. This is because of the several limitations which the model presents. One
of the main limitations includes the inaccurate beta and gamma values which were calculated. After
altering the beta and gamma values, I was able to find another gamma value which resulted in similar
values to the real data. Here is the graph to show this, with the appropriate gamma value of
0.679995559.

Fitting the model with the real data

2000
Number of people infected

1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Time (days)

Although, this does not fit the graph exactly, it shows a better positive correlation of the number of
people infected. Therefore, in order to improve the model, several changes must be done, including
altering the gamma value. The value which I eventually used to alter the model, led to being in several
decimal places. This goes to illustrate the necessary precision needed as little deviance can lead to
large changes. This is because; the gamma is calculated through extreme simplification, leaving great
possibilities for further room for errors.

Furthermore, there are many assumptions that are made with creating an SIR model:
Any individual in the population has an equal probability of receiving this disease
The number of people leaving a certain category is equivalent to the number of people joining
a new category. (i.e. the number of people leaving the susceptibility category, is equivalent to
the number of people joining the infected category)
Rate of recovery is faster that the time scale of birth and death
There is a homogenous mixing of the population whereby each individual encounters contact
with similar people in ratio to each category.

13
 Modelling Ebola using an SIR model 2014

Individuals that recovery, automatically recover with permanent immunity

The number of people recovered includes those who have died as well as those alive with
permanent immunity, making it difficult to differentiate one from the other

These assumptions do not always comply with reality as often there is no homogenous mixing within
the population and each individual does not have the same probability of being a victim of the disease
as others. These limitations borne out of the assumption increase the subjectivity of the results,
creating results which often may not correlate to real life data. Furthermore, it is difficult to
differentiate between the number of people who have died and the numbers of people who have
survived with permanent immunity as they both fall under the same category of being recovered.
The model is used to estimate future predictions of the disease and consequently, it will help to
determine practical elements such as the number of beds needed in the hospitable, leaving these
limitations of little importance.

14
 Modelling Ebola using an SIR model 2014

5. Conclusion
By using an SIR model, I was able to see the importance of modelling data, especially in the field of
medicine. This is because, in order to cope with the rapid changes in the medical sector, many
governments must find methods to sustain and maximise the efficiency of the available health care
systems. One of these methods includes mathematical modelling which is becoming increasingly
important in helping identify the future of certain diseases. The application of mathematical models
on diseases can be extended to include the effects of vaccination and impacts of herd immunity on an
outbreak as well. This can help to determine different factors which can help reduce the mortality
rate.

From doing my exploration, I gained further insight in the ways in which modelling can be used to
predict the apparent spread of diseases in order to inform health care superficial of the necessary
precautions that must be in place. Nonetheless, similar to most models, the SIR is also subject to
limitations as often a model is a simplified representation of the real situation and often this can lead
to over simplification, creating conflicts between simplicity and complexity. Ultimately, the aim of
modelling is to clarify certain concepts, but models often attempt to mimic a real life situation through
introducing many variables and can lead to further confusion.

However, the results obtained from modelling data can lead to differing perspectives and
interpretations. This is due to the unequal distribution of data across the world whereby in countries
such as Liberia, there is very little access to the statistics which makes it difficult to make constructive
predictions concerning the outbreak. However, in countries such as UK, the data is more widely
available making developing countries and their governments dependent on them. This caused an
exaggerated media coverage leading to the development of irrational fears which promoted the
prevalence of more resilient and contagious diseases such as tuberculosis. The deaths that arose from
Ebola only account for a tiny fraction in comparison to other causes of deaths such as malaria and
HIV/AIDS. Nonetheless, due to the inflation of the situation, much research has been conducted in
order to create a potential vaccine against it.

Through completing this exploration, I am able to see the impact of mathematical modelling and the
influences it has in helping scientists to analyse epidemics and help prevent further disruption. The
SIR model which I used showed the general trend of the epidemic, however due to its limitations
which eventually outweighed the advantages, the model did not precisely correspond to the real life
data, although they mostly illustrated similar correlation.
15
 Modelling Ebola using an SIR model 2014

Therefore, through my exploration, I have gained further insight into the uses of mathematical
modelling in order to determine the spread of diseases as well as evaluating its flaws. Having chosen
Ebola as the disease of concentration, as it is very relevant to the current situation in Africa, it has
enabled a realistic understanding of its rate of transmission. Moreover, this task had allowed me to
combine my interests in maths alongside a disease with which I have great interest in, in order to
simulate an analytical study and gain further understanding of the ways in which health care
professions rely on mathematical studies to help them make important decisions in improving the
healthcare of the population.

16
 Modelling Ebola using an SIR model 2014

6. Bibliography
"2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa." Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Centers

for Disease Control and Prevention, 06 Mar. 2015. Web. 07 Nov. 2014.

Dolgoarshinnykh, Regina, Columbia University, Steven P. Lalley, and University Of Chicag.

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