11

MANAJEMEN PROYEK LANJUT

Advance Project Management

Dr. Ir. Budi Susetyo, MT

Fakultas
TEKNIK

Program Magister
SIPIL - MK

1
Bagian Isi

1. PM and Project financial management

2. Money and time relationship
3. Evaluasi proyek
4. Analisis ketidakpastian dan resiko proyek
5. Analisis financial proyek
6. Perencanaan sumberdaya keuangan proyek
7. Pengawasan dan pengendalian sumberdaya keuangan proyek
UTS

9. Studi kasus project financial management

10. Studi kasus perhitungan money and time relationship
11. Studi kasus evaluasi proyek
12. Studi kasus evaluasi dan resiko proyek
13. Studi kasus cashflow proyek
14. Perencanaan cashflow proyek
15. Protap pengawasan dan pengendalian proyek
UAS

2
Studi Kasus Evaluasi Proyek

3
 Evaluasi Ekonomi Proyek

Pada bagian ini terkait studi kasus evaluasi proyek perlu diperhatikan
tahapan atau langkah evaluasi ekonomi proyek sbb :

Secara umum perhatikan berbagai hal terkait rencana pengeluaran

investasi
Tentukan dan rencanakan horizon analisis ekonomi
Perkirakan cash flow untuk setiap proyek yang akan di analisis
Tentukan minimum tingkat pengembalian (Marginal Rate of Return)
Tetapkan kriteria untuk menerima atau menolak suatu proposal proyek,
atau kriteria memilih proposal terbaik dari proposal yang ada.
Tunjukkan hasil analisis sensitivitas atau ketidakpastian suatu proyek
(bila diperlukan sebagai pelengkap)

4
 Case 1.

Example 1: Evaluation of Four Independent Projects

The cash flow profiles of four independent projects are shown in Table 6-1. Using a MARR of 20%,
determine the acceptability of each of the projects on the basis of the net present value criterion for
accepting independent projects.

TABLE 1 Cash Flow Profiles of Four Independent Projects (in $ million)

t At,1 At,2 At,3 At,4
0 -77.0 -75.3 -39.9 18.0
1 0 28.0 28.0 10.0
2 0 28.0 28.0 -40.0
3 0 28.0 28.0 -60.0
4 0 28.0 28.0 30.0
5 235.0 28.0 -80.0 50.0
 Case 1.

Using i = 20%, we can compute NPV for x = 1, 2, 3, and 4 from Eq. (6.5). Then, the acceptability of each
project can be determined from Eq. (6.6). Thus,
[NPV1]20% = -77 + (235)(P|F, 20%, 5) = -77 + 94.4 = 17.4
[NPV2]20% = -75.3 + (28)(P|U, 20%, 5) = -75.3 + 83.7 = 8.4
[NPV3]20% = -39.9 + (28)(P|U, 20%, 4) - (80)(P|F, 20%, 5)
= -39.9 + 72.5 - 32.2 = 0.4
[NPV4]20% = 18 + (10)(P|F, 20%, 1) - (40)(P|F, 20%, 2)
- (60)(P|F, 20%, 3) + (30)(P|F, 20%, 4) + (50)(P|F, 20%, 5)
= 18 + 8.3 - 27.8 - 34.7 + 14.5 + 20.1 = -1.6

Hence, the first three independent projects are acceptable, but the last project should be rejected.

It is interesting to note that if the four projects are mutually exclusive, the net present value method
can still be used to evaluate the projects and, according to Eq. (6.7), the project (x = 1) which has the
highest positive NPV should be selected. The use of the net equivalent uniform annual value or the net
future value method will lead to the same conclusion. However, the project with the highest benefit-
cost ratio is not necessarily the best choice among a group of mutually exclusive alternatives.
Furthermore, the conventional internal rate of return method cannot be used to make a meaningful
evaluation of these projects as the IRR for both x=1 and x=2 are found to be 25% while multiple values
of IRR exist for both the x=3 and x=4 alternatives.
 Case 2.

Example 2: Effects of Taxes on Investment

A company plans to invest $55,000 in a piece of equipment which is expected to produce a uniform
annual net revenue before tax of $15,000 over the next five years. The equipment has a salvage
value of $5,000 at the end of 5 years and the depreciation allowance is computed on the basis of
the straight line depreciation method. The marginal income tax rate for this company is 34%, and
there is no expectation of inflation. If the after-tax MARR specified by the company is 8%,
determine whether the proposed investment is worthwhile, assuming that the investment will be
financed by internal funds.
Using Equations, (the after-tax cash flow can be computed as shown in Table 2. Then, the
net present value discounted at 8% is obtained from Equation as follows:

The positive result indicates that the project is worthwhile.

 Case 2.

TABLE 2 After-Tax Cash Flow Computation

Before-tax Straight-line Taxable
Year Cash Flow Depreciation Income Income Tax After-Tax
t At Dt At-Dt Xt(At-Dt)
0 - $55,000 - $55,000
1-5 each + $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $1,700 + $13,300
5 only + $5,000 + $5,000
 Case 3.
Example 3: Effects of Inflation
Suppose that, in the previous example, the inflation expectation is 5% per year, and the after-tax
MARR specified by the company is 8% excluding inflation. Determine whether the investment is
worthwhile.

In this case, the before-tax cash flow At in terms of constant dollars at base year 0 is inflated at j =
5% to then-current dollars A't for the computation of the taxable income (A't - Dt) and income
taxes. The resulting after-tax flow Y't in terms of then-current dollars is converted back to
constant dollars. That is, for Xt = 34% and Dt = $10,000. The annual depreciation charges Dt are
not inflated to current dollars in conformity with the practice recommended by the U.S. Internal
Revenue Service. Thus:

A't = At(1 + j)t = At(1 + 0.05)t

Y't = A't - Xt(A't - Dt) = A't - (34%)(A't - $10,000)
Yt = Y't(1 + j)t = Y't(1 + 0.05)t

The detailed computation of the after-tax cash flow is recorded in Table 6-3. The net present
value discounted at 8% excluding inflation is obtained by substituting Yt for At in Eq.

Hence,
[NPV]8%) = -55,000 + (13,138)(P|F, 8%, 1) + (12,985)(P|F, 8%, 2) + (12,837)(P|F, 8%, 3)
+ (12,697)(P|F, 8%, 4) + (12,564 + 5,000)(P|F, 8%, 5) = -$227
With 5% inflation, the investment is no longer worthwhile because the value of the depreciation
tax deduction is not increased to match the inflation rate.
 Case 3.

TABLE 3 After-Tax Cash Flow Including Inflation

Current $
Current $ after
Constant $ Current $ depreciation depreciation Current $ Current $ Constant $
Time B-Tax CF B-Tax CF income tax A-Tax CF A-Tax CF
t At A't Dt A't-Dt Xt(A't-Dt) Y't Yt
0 -$55,000 +$55,000 -$55,000 -$55,000
1 +15,000 +15,750 $10,000 $5,750 $1,955 +13,795 +13,138
2 +15,000 16,540 10,000 6,540 2,224 +14,316 +12,985
3 +15,000 17,365 10,000 7,365 2,504 +14,861 +12,837
4 +15,000 18,233 10,000 8,233 2,799 +15,434 +12,697
5 +15,000 19,145 10,000 9,145 3,109 +16,036 +12,564
5 +5,000 +5,000

Note: B-Tax CF refers to Before-Tax Cash Flow;

A-Tax CF refers to After-Tax Cash Flow
 Case 4.

B C
k - 10 M
4 11,50
6 13,23
5 (4+0,6+..+6+0,9+5) 15,21
 Pustaka

1. Hendricson, Project Management for Construction, Web Version, 2003

2. Zulkarnain Djamin, Perencanaan dan Analisa Proyek, Universitas Indonesia, 1984

12