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http://www.AssetsforLife.net

Prosperity & Well-Being through Pursuit of a
Zero Emissions Energy Economy

Michael P Totten, Principal, AssetsforLife.net

Draft v.1 - November 2015



1. Fossil Fuel Rapid Phase-out Imperative

Fossil resources (encompassing coal, oil, and natural gas) have fueled the global economys
engine of growth since the beginning of the industrial era.

There is no doubt that humanity has profited immensely from the scientific breakthroughs
and technological innovations essential for harnessing these inert substances for a vast
variety of human uses.

Impressive engineering feats have enabled the massive scaling of the extraction,
conversion, transport, and combustion processes capable of fueling and powering
hundreds of billions of motors, pumps, compressors, fans, lights, appliances, equipment,
machines, consumer electronics, etc., located in tens of billions of vehicles, factories,
buildings, farms, used by billions of people.

As the first chart below clearly indicates, the global increase in fossil fuel consumption
correlates tightly with the sharp rise in global GDP between 1800 and 2008.

1


Source: Kremmer. 2010. Historic population and GDP data. http://www.historicalstatistics.org/
Note: 1 EJ (exajoule) = 174 million barrels of oil equivalent.

The use of fossil fuels to deliver electricity, natural gas, and liquid fuels has also correlated
tightly with the explosion in world population.

This is not surprising, given the use of these fuels in enhancing health and well-being by
producing and delivering clean water, refrigeration and cooking of food and reducing
contamination and illness, increases in agricultural productivity for feeding and clothing
more people, providing warmth from freezing weather, sanitary disposal of wastes, etc.

Source: World Population & Fuel Use Growth, Right Figure. World population from US Census Bureau,
overlaid with fossil fuel use (red) by Vaclav Smil from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements, Prospects.

2
Until recently, there has been every expectation that these correlations would continue for
the rest of the century. Indeed, it has been generally assumed that economic growth
demands energy growth marching in lockstep.

The chart below shows the baseline projections of energy expansion tripling from 600 EJ in
2014 to 1800 EJ by 2100 that is believed to be necessary for sustaining a global economic
growth of 2 percent per year.

Source: IPCC (2014)1

There is one massive problem with this predominantly fossil-fueled growth: climate
destabilization.

Although one would hardly know it from listening to major media outlets like Fox News, or
GOP politicians, or the global energy corporations (in 2013 eight of the first 11 Global
Fortune corporations were fossil fuel companies, see list below), that there is a consensus
among 99.9% of climate scientists that climate destabilization is real (see Powell pie chart
below).

All of the major Academies of Science worldwide have called for immediate action,
recognizing climate destabilization poses an unprecedented threat of global and historical
magnitude.

3

Source: (Above Left list) Ranking the Brands, http://www.rankingthebrands.com/The-Brand-
Rankings.aspx?rankingID=50&year=666. (Above right pie chart) Professor James Powell, Global Warming
Consensus Exceeds 99.9%, http://www.jamespowell.org/.

No part of the planet is immune from the impacts of climate destabilization.

The assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) include a long
litany of disastrous consequences that are projected to occur with increasing frequency
and severity in the decades ahead; many are already being felt around the world.

These include:

100-year, 500-year and 1000-year floods occurring within the same decade;
Rising sea level and saltwater intrusion into freshwater systems;
Ocean acidification and die-off of a quarter of the worlds coral reefs;
Severe and prolonged heat waves, droughts, wildfires;
Pest and pathogen attacks of crops, forests, and livestock;
Spread of infectious tropical diseases into temperate climates;
Declining snowpack and watershed flows;
Dust storms, some carrying infectious diseases previously stored in the soil;
Urban heat islands with increased air pollutants;
More severe storms and hurricanes.

4
Many weather records are being broken, as shown in the U.S Extreme Weather map for
2012:

Source: NRDC, Extreme Weather Map 2012, http://www.nrdc.org/health/extremeweather/

The economic impacts and financial costs are also rising, as now routinely reported by
insurance companies like Munich Re (see two Bar Charts below).

Source: Munich Re, Significant Natural Disasters since 1980, 2015,
http://www.munichre.com/en/reinsurance/business/non-life/natcatservice/significant-natural-
catastrophes

5

Source: UCS, Power Outages, Extreme Weather, and Climate Change: How Smart Energy Choices Will
Help Keep the Lights On, April 21, 2014, http://blog.ucsusa.org/steve-clemmer/power-outages-
extreme-weather-and-climate-change-489

The extreme toll is also undermining the homes and livelihoods of millions of people who
have become climate refugees. According to the Norwegian Refugee Councils 2015
report, In the last seven years, an estimated one person every second has been displaced
by a disaster, with 19.3 million people forced to flee their homes in 2014 alone.2

An increasing percentage of these refugees are being displaced by weather-triggered
disasters that, in turn, are causing civil strife and conflicts, as is now occurring, for example,
in Syria.3,4

Source: Norwegian Refugee Council, http://www.nrc.no/?did=9202152#.Vj1NBcpIjg3

6
 Author's personal copy

Forum Trends in Ecology & Evolution July 2013, Vol. 28, No. 7

Box 1. Definitional differences in which glacial terminations may (temporarily) involve

runaway positive feedback. Thus, the Earth may currently
As serious as these current disasters around the world are, resulting from just 1 degree
Suess first defined the biosphere as the place on the surface of the
be in a rare state of potential instability [4] (Figure 1).
Celsius global average temperature rise, climate scientists warn that they are but a prelude
Earth where life dwells, a concept developed by Vernadsky into
something akin to what we now call the Earth system, including This adds to concern at the current rate and magnitude
to catastrophic disasters looming in the decades ahead.
biogeochemical cycles and climate. In ecology, however, the bio-
sphere is often used more narrowly to mean the sum total of all
of global change. Barnosky et al. [1] describe at length this
multiple-dimensional sledgehammer and Hughes et al.
ecosystems, just as the biota is the sum total of all organisms. None [3] address what we might do to try and manage it.
of the studies discussed here give a definition, but our reading is that
Catastrophes like one-third of world agricultural lands no longer being capable of growing
Brook et al.s [2] terrestrial biosphere is meant as the sum total of all However, as they clarify [3], the need to live within
crops or livestock. Collapse of marine fisheries due to the combined impacts of sea
land-based ecosystems, Barnosky et al.s [1] biosphere is the sum
total of all ecosystems on the planet, and Hughes et al.s [3] biosphere
planetary boundaries [12] does not imply the existence
of planetary-scale tipping points. Barnosky et al.s [1]
temperature rise and marine acidification. Loss of the Amazon rainforest as the region
is really the Earth system, including climate and biogeochemistry. This central proposal is that human land use will pass a
distinction helps explain how they come to different conclusions.
collapses into savannah and scrubland. The loss of half to three-fourths of the planets
In popular terms, a tipping point is where a small change makes a
tipping point that triggers greatly increased biodiversity
loss. This is inferred from smaller-scale models of popu-
biodiversity, going extinct as they are unable to adapt to the radical climate changes, and
big difference [15] to the state and/or fate of a system. In Earth system
science, it is more formally defined [8] as a point at which a small lation collapse due to habitat fragmentation. However, it
unable to migrate to new ecosystems.
perturbation can cause a qualitative change in the future state of a is assumed [1] that projected human population growth
system. Brook et al. [2] suggest that the change to a new state is
typically rapid, whereas Hughes et al. [3] note that it could unfold will be directly correlated with increased land use, when
actual per capita land use has steadily diminished over
These catastrophes are projected from global temperature increases of 2 to 7 degrees
slowly relative to human perception; crucially, the timescale is set by
the internal dynamics of the system in question [8]. Barnosky et al. [1] time [13]. Furthermore, a global fold bifurcation is in-
Celsius, which the current business-as-usual economic and energy growth trends are
liken tipping points to fold bifurcations with hysteresis, but this voked [1] without a clear mechanism, making it pure
narrow definition ignores other potential sources of tipping behaviour
headed with the release of a trillion-plus tons of CO
[8]. Hughes et al. [3] describe a tipping point as a non-linear 2 emissions.
supposition.
The presence of evolving life in the Earth system brings
ecosystem, but a clearly identifiable tipping point will only arise
relationship between a driver. . .and the [equilibrated] state of the
a source of innovation and, with it, the possibility of a
On top of all these projected catastrophes there is added the great uncertainty of climate
when nonlinearity is strong. different kind of tipping point, a rare evolutionary event
The use of planetary-scale tipping point suggests to us and to that ultimately changes the world profoundly from within
sensitivity. Scientists do not know at what point of atmospheric concentrations of
Brook et al. [2] synchronous or near-synchronous tipping on a global [4,14]. For example, a novel metabolism that accesses an
greenhouse gases there could be the triggering of tipping points.
scale. Hughes et al. [3] concede this is very unlikely for the terrestrial
biosphere, yet they persevere with the term when describing
underutilised source of energy will spread rapidly, and the
nonsynchronous cascades of smaller-scale tipping points that resulting waste products can perturb the environment and
ultimately add up to global effects. Here, the critical uncertainty is destabilise existing ecosystems. In extreme cases, this can
More than a dozen have been identified, such as the accelerated melting of the Antarctic
whether the causal coupling between different tipping events is of the cause mass extinction and a rapid transition to a new
region, and the melting of the permafrost that could trigger the release of massive amounts
sign and strength necessary to produce a global tipping cascade (e.g.,
Figure 1, main text). The planetary-scale tipping point terminology
steady state [4,14]. When we look back at past revolutions
of methane gases. These tipping points could accelerate far greater climate catastrophes
may not be helpful because complex systems, such as the biosphere,
of the Earth, such evolutionary innovations are a crucial
often show scale-free distributions of event sizes [14]. ingredient; for example, the evolution of oxygenic photo-
that would effectively lead to the collapse of the global economic system and the conflicts,
synthesis led ultimately to the Great Oxidation [4,5].
wars, death and destruction that all of that entails. (See global map below).
Melt of
- Greenland
Reduced warming of Greenland ice sheet
Freshwater input
Cooling of northeastern tropical Pacific, thermocline +
shoaling, weakening of annual cycle in EEP
Collapse of
- Atlan"c
+ Enhanced water thermohaline Sea-level rise causing grounding
vapour export from circula"on Fast advec"on of salinity line retreat
Atlan"c anomaly to North
Atlan"c
Shi! to a Dieback +/-
more persistent of Amazon
El Nio Tropical
rainforest Southward shi! of inter- + +
regime moisture tropical convergence
supply zone
+/- changes
+ Drying over +/-
Amazonia +
+
Heat accumula"on in Increase in meridional
Southern Ocean salinity gradient
Warming of Ross and
Amundsen seas
Disintegra"on of
West Antarc"c ice sheet

TRENDS in Ecology & Evolution

Figure 1. Causal connections between tipping events in the climate system, as identified by participants in an expert elicitation [11]. Tipping events (in yellow) are connected

Figure 1. Causal connections between tipping events in the climate system, as identified by participants in an
A!B if at least five experts judged that event A had a direct effect on the probability of event B thereafter; the sign indicates increasing (+) or decreasing () effects, or effects of
expert elicitation. Tipping events (in yellow) are connected A B if at least five experts judged that event A
!cascade,
uncertain direction (+/). A predominance of positive causal connections could give rise to a tipping but this also depends on the strength of the positive and negative
connections. Here, there are more positive (red) than negative (green) and uncertain (grey) connections, but note that there are several other interconnected tipping elements in
had a direct effect on the probability of event B thereafter; the sign indicates increasing (+) or decreasing ()
the climate system of the Earth [8] that are not considered here. Redrawn using data from [11]. Abbreviation: EEP, Eastern Equatorial Pacific.
effects, or effects of uncertain direction (+/). A predominance of positive causal connections could give rise 381

7
to a tipping cascade, but this also depends on the strength of the positive and negative connections. Here,
there are more positive (red) than negative (green) and uncertain (grey) connections, but note that there is
several other interconnected tipping elements in the climate system of the Earth [8] that are not considered
here. Abbreviation: EEP, Eastern Equatorial Pacific.
Source: Lenton, Timothy M. and Hywel T.P. Williams (2012) On the origin of planetary-scale tipping points,
Trends in Ecology & Evolution July 2013, Vol. 28, No. 7

Climate destabilization is inextricably connected to poverty and slavery, commanding a
moral call to Let Justice roll down like waters (Amos 5:18-24). Pope Francis recent
encyclical on environment and human ecology, Laudato Si, speaks to this linkage in great
detail.5

But scientists have also noted the tie. Dr. Guy McPherson, professor emeritus of natural
resources, ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Arizona has pointed out,
"Peer-reviewed research continues to show that climate change underlies poverty and that
poverty drives human trafficking. If we want to get at the root of slavery, it seems we're
neglecting one of its deepest layers."6

Are these horrendous risks inevitable? Is this the price of unchecked economic growth? Is
economic growth impossible without massive use of fossil fuels? Will humanity collapse
upon itself because there are now too many humans demanding to consume too much
energy and material goods?

As a person and professional immersed in the energy and climate crises for four decades,
during which time scientists and scholars have assessed and addressed these challenges
intensively, I have had the good fortune of gleaning positive solutions from many learned
professors, advocates, business and public leaders. I will mention just one major solution
put forward in considerable detail, although there are many other such assessments.

Stanford Professor Mark Jacobson and UC Berkeley Professor Mark Delucchi and their
colleagues have spent the better part of a decade assessing the possibility of displacing all
fossil fuels (and nuclear power) with 100% ecologically sustainable, renewable energy
options (hence no biofuels or more large hydrodams, both of which are ecologically
destructive).

Even as recently as a decade ago this was considered infeasible (although money-saving
end-use efficiency gains have been documented for decades by groups as diverse as
national labs to McKinsey, as capable of delivering half or more of new utility services at
the least-cost-and-risk roughly zero to several cents per kWh). But the steady and
dramatic declines in the cost of solar power and wind power over the past decade have
been nothing short of spectacular. The most recent annual assessment of costs by
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory on U.S. utility-scale wind turbine and solar
photovoltaic (PV) farms in good sites find their cost to be 2.5 cents per kWh and 3.8 cents
per kWh, respectively.7,8,9 By comparison, new natural gas, coal, and nuclear power plants
range from 5 to 15 cents per kWh. In fact, just the O&M (running) costs of coal and nuclear
power plants incur 3 to 6 cents/kWh, making them excellent candidates for early shutdown
to reduce ratepayers unnecessarily high utility bills through efficiency improvements.

8

Jacobson and Delucchi have shown that solar and wind power, in addition to a vast and still
expanding pool of money-saving energy efficiency options, to be economically feasible in View Article Onlin
each of the 50 U.S. states, as well as in every nation worldwide.10,11 (See U.S. energy
Energy & Environmental Science
transition map below). Pape

Fig. 5 Time-dependent change in U.S. end-use power demand for all purposes (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) and its suppl
by conventional fuelsFig. 5 Time-dependent change in U.S. end-use power demand for all purposes (electricity, transportation,
and WWS generators based on the state roadmaps proposed here. Total power demand decreases upon conversion to WWS due t
heating/cooling, and industry) and its supply by conventional fuels and WWS generators based on the state
he eciency of electricity over combustion and end-use energy eciency measures. The percentages on the horizontal date axis are the percen
roadmaps proposed here. Source: Jacobson & Delucchi et al.
conversion to WWS that has occurred by that year. The percentages next to each WWS source are the final 12
estimated penetration of the source. Th

100% demarcation in 2050 indicates that 100% of all-purpose power is provided by WWS technologies by 2050, and the power demand by that time ha
The combination of solar, wind and efficiency are capable of providing 90 percent of total
decreased. Karl Burkart, personal communication.
energy services worldwide electricity, mobility (shifting to electric vehicles), industrial,
etc.
During the transition, conventional fuels will be needed along ! Incentivize conversion from natural gas water and air heater

with existing WWS technologies to produce the remaining WWS to heat pumps (air and ground-source) and rooftop solar therma
They have calculated the number of solar panels, wind turbines, job creation, cost savings,
infrastructure. The use of such fuels results in lifecycle carbon hot water pre-heaters. Incentivize more use of ecient lighting in
and environmental benefits like deep reductions in emissions, air and water pollution,
emissions that vary, depending on where the technologies are buildings and on city streets.
avoided mortality and illness costs, etc.
manufactured.55 However, at least some of that conventional ! Promote, though municipal financing, incentives, and rebates
used in any case to produce conventional power energy eciency measures in buildings. Eciency measure
energy would beThe results are summarized and made available on an interactive map on the Internet (see
plants and automobiles, for example, if the plans proposed here include, but are not limited to, using LED lighting; optimized
below, U.S. map and two infographs on California example).
were not implemented.
In fact, it is not known whether the total air conditioning systems; evaporative cooling; ductless air con
lifecycle energy required to manufacture the main components of ditioning; water-cooled heat exchangers; night ventilation cooling
the WWS energy system, mainly solar panels and wind turbines, heat-pump water heaters; improved data center design; improved
will be much dierent from the total lifecycle energy required to air flow management; advanced lighting controls; combined
manufacture all of the components of the conventional BAU space and water heaters; variable refrigerant flow; improved wall
energy system, which includes power plants, refineries, mining floor, ceiling, and pipe insulation; sealing leaks in windows
equipment, oil and gas wells, pipelines, tanker ships, trucks, rail doors, and fireplaces; converting to double-paned windows
cars, and more. In any event, as the fraction of WWS energy using more passive solar heating; monitoring building energ
increases, conventional energy generation decreases, ultimately to use to determine wasteful processes; and performing an energ
zero, at which point all new WWS devices are produced by existing audit to discover energy waste. 9
WWS devices with zero emissions. In sum, the creation of WWS ! Revise building codes as new technologies become available
infrastructure might result in a temporary, minor increase in ! Incentivize landlords investment in eciency. Allow owner
emissions before emissions are ultimately reduced to zero, and of multi-family buildings to take a property tax exemption fo

Source: The Solutions Project, http://thesolutionsproject.org/infographic/

100% CALIFORNIA 100% CALIFORNIA

Transition to 100% wind, water, and solar (WWS) for all purposes Transition to 100% wind, water, and solar (WWS) for all purposes
(electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry) (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry)

2050
Commercial/govt
Residential rooftop PV
rooftop PV Avoided Mortality and Illness Costs Percentage of California Land Needed for
7.5%
5% All New WWS Generators
Avoided health costs per year:

0.64% 2.61%
Solar PV plants Wave devices
27% PROJECTED 0.5%
ENERGY MIX
CSP plants Geothermal $128B Footprint area Spacing area

15% 5%
2.9% of State GDP

Onshore wind Hydroelectric

25% 4.4%
Air pollution deaths avoided every year: 12,528

Offshore wind Tidal turbines

10% 0.5% =1000

Plan pays for itself in as little as 2.6 years from air pollution and climate
40-Year Jobs Created Operation jobs: 142,153 cost savings alone

Number of jobs where a person

is employed for 40 consecutive years Construction jobs:
315,982
=10,000
Future Energy Costs 2050 Money in Your Pocket
Using WWS electricity for everything, instead of burning fuel, and P = $2,000
improving energy efficiency means you need much less energy. BAU (Business as usual) WWS (Wind, water, solar)
Annual energy, health, and climate cost savings per person
Current demand Wind, Water, Solar in 2050: $7,395

-44.3%
U.S. average fossil-fuel energy costs*

10.73 c/kWh
*Health and climate external costs of fossil fuels are another 5.7c/kWh

Annual energy cost savings per person in 2050: $161

State average WWS
electricity costs

9.7 c/kWh

VISIT THESOLUTIONSPROJECT.ORG VISIT THESOLUTIONSPROJECT.ORG

TO LEARN MORE AND 100.ORG TO JOIN THE MOVEMENT TO LEARN MORE AND 100.ORG TO JOIN THE MOVEMENT

Data from Stanford University - For more information, visit Data from Stanford University - For more information, visit
http://go100.me/50StateTargets http://go100.me/50StateTargets

100isNow SolutionsProj

FOLLOW US ON FOLLOW US ON 100isNow SolutionsProj

Source: The Solutions Project, http://thesolutionsproject.org/infographic/#ca

This is such wonderful, uplifting, positive information. Not only does this far preferable
energy future solve most of the climate emissions threat in an economically productive and
beneficial manner, it also simultaneously addresses other serious issues.

10
For example, eliminating dependency on vulnerable Middle East oil imports and avoiding
all the wars and conflicts that seem linked to such dependency.

Preventing urban air pollution, tanker oil spills, pipeline spills, releases from train wrecks
and railcar accidents, and contamination of water resources from fracking chemicals.

Deep reductions in water consumed in producing energy services. Solar and wind power,
for example, require 95% less water to generate a kilowatt-hour of electricity than
required by fossil fueled or nuclear thermal power plants.

A little known fact is that 41% of all freshwater extracted from watersheds goes to cool
fossil and nuclear thermal power plants (see Bar Graph and Pie Chart below).

Source: (Left Above) CleanTechnica, http://cleantechnica.com/2014/08/25/renewable-energy-momentum-
passed-tipping-point/ (Right Above) UCS, U.S. freshwater withdrawals, 2005, UCS compilation of USGS data),
http://blog.ucsusa.org/john-rogers/u-s-china-climate-agreement-carbon-capture-water-726.

So, given this incredibly outstanding, preferable alternative to fossil fuels, why isnt it
happening faster?

Why, for example, does the fossil fuel industry continue to receive more than $5 trillion
per year in taxpayer subsidies, equivalent to 7 percent of Gross World Product (!),
according to the 2015 assessment by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)? (See Bar
Graph below).

11
 subsidies, though at about 2 percent of regional GDP they are still sizable. In contrast, post-
tax subsidies are a staggering 1318 percent of regional GDP in MENAP, CIS, and Emerging
and Developing Asia; in the latter two cases, the large subsidies primarily reflect high coal
use and high population exposure to coals emissions and, in the former, substantial
undercharging for supply and environmental costs of petroleum (Figure 8).

Figure 8. Energy Subsidies by Region and Energy Product, 2013

(US$ billions on top axis; percent regional GDP on bottom axis)

US$ billions (nominal)

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

World
LAC
Advanced
Emerging Europe
E.D. Asia
Com. Of Ind. States
Sub-Saharan Africa
MENAP

World
LAC
Environmental costs are significant and rising Advanced
Emerging Europe
E.D. Asia
Com. Of Ind. States
Sub-Saharan Africa
The value of global environmental MENAP
The externalities represent the depreciation of natural capital
and reflect the global cost of ecosystem maintenance.
externalities is high and increasing. 0 5 Ecosystems 10 need to be maintained
15 for20price stability and
Environmental costs are caused by Percent
business of GDP and to preserve future generations
continuity,
Coal Petroluem Natural gas Electricity
greenhouse gas emissions, overuse ability to sustain current levels of economic activity. However,
traditional
Source: Authors calculations, based on sources in measures
Appendix Table

of2.economic value such as GDP treat
of water, pollution and
Note: CIS unsustainable
= Commonwealth Source: IMF
of Independent
13
resources as current income instead of capital Asia,
States; ED Asia = Emerging and Developing depreciation and
natural resourceLACuse.
= Latin America and the Caribbean; MENAP
do not=fully
Middle East, North
account Africa,
for the Afghanistan,
effects of currentand
consumption,
Pakistan
On the contrary, why isnt the fossil fuel industry being regulated to pay for its immense
emissions and waste sinks on future capital stocks and
Global environmental external costs caused by human consumption. The resulting failure to maintain natural capital,
pollution? Pay for its so-called negative externalities now forced upon citizens in the
activity amounted to an estimated US$ 6.6 trillion in 2008. if uncorrected, will undermine economic growth over time.
form of health impacts and premature deaths of people, livestock and wildlife, in reducing
To put this figure into context, annual global environmental
B. The Benefits of Subsidy Reform
The costs of addressing the accumulating
agricultural and forest yields, killing of coral reefs and marine life, and triggering military
externalities are 20% larger than the US$ 5.4 trillion decline
in the value of pension funds in developed countries caused
conflicts in oil-exporting nations upon which the U.S. is dependent?
What really matters for policynot only for
by the global financial crisis in 2007/08. US$ 6.6 trillion of
its effects
own sake,ofbutexternalities
also for convincing will rise.
environmental
policymakers and stakeholders
damage equates to 11% of theof value
the need for reformare
of the the benefits that reform will
The projected value of annual environmental costs could
produce in terms of fiscal balances, the environment,
reach US$ 28.6 trillion in 2050, equating toHere
human health,
Such externality costs have been calculated in an UNEP assessment to exceed $6 trillion per
global economy in 2008, as shown in Table 1. Measuring and the economy. 18% of
costs relative
we to GDP the
discuss shows the significance
benefits to be of annual
realized from a complete elimination
projected GDP.2 Levelsofofpost-tax
projectedenergy
externalities could be 9%
year, equivalent to more than 10% of global GDP. (See Table 1 below).
environmental impacts relative to economic output.
subsidiesthat is, a simple comparison of outcomes higherthat
under a scenario
would with more intensive
have happened under a use of fossil

TABLE 1:
Annual environmental costs for the global economy in 2008 and projections for 2050

Environmental impact External costs External cost Projected external Projected external
in 2008 relative to global costs in 2050 cost relative to
(US$ billions) GDP in 2008 (US$ billions) global GDP in 2050

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 4,530 7.54% 20,809 12.93%

Water abstraction 1,226 2.04% 4,702 2.92%
Pollution (SOx, NOx, PM, VOCs, mercury) 546 0.91% 1,926 1.20%
General waste 197 0.33% 635 0.39%
Natural resources
Fish 54 0.09% 287 0.18%
Timber 42 0.07% 256 0.16%
Other ecosystem services,
pollutants and waste Not available (NA) NA NA NA
Total 6,596 10.97% 28,615 17.78%

Source: Trucost Plc
Findings reflect uncertainties and margins of error inherent in estimates of externalities. Actual values are likely to be higher, since this study takes a global
view that simplifies many economic and environmental complexities. Due to lack of available global data, the analysis excludes most natural resources
used, as well as many environmental impacts including water pollution, most heavy metals, land use change and waste in non-OECD countries. 12
Externalities would also be higher if degradation of environmental services such as watershed protection or climate regulation could be accounted for.
Trucost calculated global environmental costs based on a literature review of academic studies as well as data on the valuation of forest resources from the
Valuation Database of the UN Environment Programme initiative on The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB). This study uses the total economic
value (TEV) as a theoretical framework to monetise ecosystem goods and services based on their use values and other benefits. The value of global annual
 Source: TruCost, Universal Ownership, Why externalities matter to institutional investors, prepared for the
UNEP Finance Initiative and PRI (Principles for Responsible Investment), 2010,
http://www.unpri.org/publications/.

The major reason why the fossil fuels industry is treated so favorably and preferentially is
the enormous sums of money the fossil fuel corporations pour into media disinformation
campaigns to sow public confusion about climate destabilization, and into campaign
election financing to maintain their subsidies and prevent passage of GHG emission
regulations, like the infamous Koch Brothers spending upwards of $1 billion on the current
election cycle.

As some media have reported, at least three GOP presidential candidates and nearly all GOP
Congressional members or candidates have signed the Koch-financed Tea Partys No
Carbon Tax pledge in order to receive Koch campaign funding.14

I am the proud grandfather of two little girls. What kind of future do I want for my
granddaughters? The dark, dire, devastated future forced upon us by the myopic short-
term greed of fossil fuel companies shaping the outcome of elections for their own gain,
and who exhibit no concern or empathy for the health and well-being of our children,
grandchildren and putting at risk of extinction most of the planets irreplaceable animals?

Or, the far more preferable, alternative energy system that ensures our children and
grandchildren will inherit a safer, cleaner, greener, healthier, more secure and prosperous
future? The answer is blatantly obvious to me. The key question is, how come its not so
blatant to all citizenry that a fossil fuel rapid phase-out is imperative? More pointedly, how
does one engage most effectively to overcome such industrial titans who appear invincible
and incapable of being challenged, let alone displaced?

2. Rationale & Design for Fossil Fuel Rapid Phase-out Imperative

According to The Beyond Intractability Knowledge Base Project, run by the Conflict
Information Consortium at the University of Colorado, Theories of change can be
identified either prospectively as part of planning an initiative or retrospectively as part an
evaluative process. They go on to emphasize, Articulating theories of change often
requires 'backward mapping' -- or identifying the intended outcomes of a program that
often lead practitioners to their decisions about specific strategies and methods of
intervention.15

Furthermore, scholars have put forward that good theories of change have (at least) three
key attributes:16

1) Plausible -- evidence and common sense indicate specified activities will lead to desired
outcomes;

2) Doable -- financial, technical, political, institutional and human resources to implement

the strategy are adequate; and

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3) Testable progress can be credibly and transparently tracked, via specific and
sufficiently complete pathways of change, from a specific baseline through ongoing
measurable indicators.

In Part 1 above I highlighted a thoroughly documented, transparent economic-engineering
methodology for pursuing an achievable path to displace 100% of fossil fuels with 100%
efficiency, wind, solar and other minor amounts of renewables, over the next four decades,
as extensively mapped out by Jacobson & Delucchi et al. in their 100% WWS roadmap.
The depth and breadth of the roadmap affirmatively answer the key attributes of
plausibility, doability and testability.

Jacobson & Delucchi clearly demonstrate a multi-positive resolution through explicit
outcome goals (technically, financially, ecologically, environmentally, security, and health
and well-being) to the multi-challenging threats engulfing humanity (notably climate
destabilization, species extinction, resource wars, and mass poverty).17

In the theory of change literature this would be considered a structural or system level of
analysis, rather than at the individual or intergroup relationships level.

While not ensuring or guaranteeing successful implementation (even given its superior
value to all citizenry and planetary biodiversity worldwide, now and for generations to
come), it is a necessary and essential foundational or anchor narrative from which to
launch the other levels based on individuals and groups of individuals as change agents
carrying this profoundly hopeful story to fruition through their actions.

This is described in Part 3 below.

3. Issues & Challenges confronting the Fossil Fuel Rapid Phase-out
Imperative

Jacobson & Delucchi have wisely engaged the available resources of academic scholars to
flesh out a roadmap for action. The so-called best-in-play or state-of-play public
policies, incentives and regulations, and market practices, are not specified in the 100%
WWS roadmap, deferring to other detailed publications.

A plethora of public and private organizations from the local to the global level
governmental, academic, scientific, non-governmental, and business groups have put
forward and are advocating a number of key policies and regulations for accelerating the
scaling of a zero-emissions energy economy.18

It is painfully clear that the fossil fuels industry will battle to the end against losing their
captive market share and immense profits, spending billions of dollars a year, when
necessary, to ensure protection of trillions of dollars of future earnings. So how do citizens
properly and adequately respond to this mega-threat, given constraints in skills, time, and
resources?

14

Like every individual, I spend my time in numerous roles each day as, for example:
professional consultant, shopper/consumer, investor, community/state/national citizen,
writer, voter, media & social media watcher, Internet poster & sharer, volunteer, parent,
grandparent, parishioner. Each of these role moments allows me an opportunity to be a
change agent - to exercise my freedom of choice. To decide, as Prince Charles recently
expressed it, to be a future maker and not a future taker.

Jacobson & Delucchi et als 100% WWS is decisively and brilliantly positive in the future
making opportunities before us. This inspires and empowers me, knowing hopelessness is
unnecessary and unwarranted. Ive recognized, and need to continually remind myself, that
being a change agent need not be seen as a burden but embraced and experienced as a gift.

As The Body Shop founder Anita Roddick often recalled the African proverb, If you think
youre too small to have an impact, try going to bed with a mosquito.

The rich pool of easily accessible Internet resources expands weekly with the emergence of
new apps, all designed to help citizens make daily informed decisions that wean us of fossil
fuel dependency while sustaining the myriad of goods and services we need and desire in
our lives. My own sense is that as more citizens become more personally familiar with these
opportunities, this discovery process will inspire more citizens to aspire to use more of their
role moments to become integral parts of advancing the 100% WWS roadmap. I describe
this further in Part 4 below.


4. Evaluation

I am anchored in the positive vision of a 100% WWS global energy system. The annual
metrics for evaluating advancement (or setbacks) towards this 2050 target are being
implemented by The Solutions Project (http://thesolutionsproject.org/), which is using
the Internet to report on state-by-state progress on the implementation of efficiency gains,
and solar and wind installations. Nationwide, the initiative is being promoted by notable
celebrities (e.g., Leonardo DiCaprio and Mark Ruffalo), and citizens are being encouraged to
join and become local change agents focused on getting utility commissioners, governors,
state legislators, mayors and city councils, to become aware of and implement the kinds of
policies and regulations, incentives and practices, that align with spurring the advancement
of the 100% WWS roadmap.

At the personal level I am using the Internet and iPhone apps that enable me to calculate
my carbon (energy, water) footprints, identify actions for reducing these footprints,
calculating the shift to solar and wind power, offsetting my footprints with independent
verifiable carbon offsets that protect and restore threatened rainforests, and apps for
tracking my progress. Among the steps I personally take and monitor: vegetarian diet,
which is one to two orders of magnitude smaller in impact than the average Americans
beef-intensive diet; walking, use of mass transit, and bicycling, while leaving my car in the

15
driveway much of the time (given a bicycle gets the equivalent of 2500 miles per gallon
based on the extra Calories of food consumed); and living a relatively simple lifestyle that
emphasizes quality of experiences over material consumption.

These are valuable steps that I believe all reflective citizens could similarly undertake to
greater or lesser degree. They are valuable, rewarding, important, necessary, but not
sufficient actions. Why? Because our society is based on decades and centuries of public
policies, subsidies, and regulations favoring an industrialized economy built upon heavily
subsidized fossil fuels. It is now incumbent upon me, and a majority of other citizens, to
shift and transform the 21st century economy to an incentivized 100% WWS energy-based
society.

ABOUT MICHAEL P TOTTEN

Michael Totten, Yale Class of 1972, has been working on displacing fossil and nuclear fuels since
1975. He has worked at the community, county, state, national and global scales for 40 years in
various professional capacities, including delivering more than 1500 presentations and authoring
scores of publications (see http://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelptotten). He formed
AssetsforLife.net in 2013 to promote emission-free communities, campuses and companies through
the use of open source mesh platforms known as Collaborative Innovation/Collective Intelligence
Networks (COINs). In 1979 he served as the Executive Director of the Presidents Clearinghouse for
Community Energy Efficiency, as well as authoring Local Alternative Energy Futures, a 200pp
annotated reader to promote efficiency/productivity, solar and wind at the community and state
levels. In 1984 he authored The Road To Trillion Dollar Energy Savings, energy strategy for jobs,
security and environmental integrity. As Senior Advisor to U.S. Congresswoman Claudine
Schneider (R-RI) in the 1980s he authored the Global Warming Prevention Act of 1989, a 12-title,
230pp. bill cosponsored by one-third of the U.S. House of Representatives. The legislation was
more often referred to as the U.S. Economic Productivity Enhancement and Competitive Export
Act, because of its focus on generating multi-trillion dollar savings through comprehensive
efficiency/productivity gains. In the 1990s he pioneered the use of digital interactive media and the
Internet for promoting ecologically sustainable economic development, while also co-leading the
World Banks first financed large-scale energy efficiency project in Mexico. For his leadership he
received the 1999 Lewis Mumford Prize given by ADPSR (Architects, Designers and Planners for
Social Responsibility). For most of the past 15 years he has worked on halting deforestation,
slowing species extinction, marine acidification, climate destabilization and promoting sustainable
livelihoods, while working as Conservation Internationals Chief Advisor on Green & Clean
technologies and policies. In 2004 he co-led the initiation of Walmarts Sustainability program,
beginning with assessing the ecological footprint of Walmarts facilities, operations and products.
In 2008 he was the lead author of a major book, A Climate For Life: Meeting the Global Challenge, an
in 2013 he authored the chapter on energy and environmental recommendations published in US-
China 2022: US-China Economic Relations in the Next 10 Years, by the China-US Exchange
Foundation. Some of Tottens recent consulting clients include WWF, the NFL, Green Sports
Alliance, Pearl Jam, NRDC, and NRG. He is also completing a web-accessible book on prosperously
phasing out emissions.

16
FOOTNOTES:
1
IPCC (2014) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change,
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, http://www.ipcc-wg3.de/assessment-reports/fifth-assessment-
report/more-about-ar5; and, https://jmkorhonen.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/world-energy-use-and-srren-037.png
2
Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), The Global
Estimates: People displaced by disasters, July 2015, http://www.nrc.no/?did=9202152#.Vj1NBcpIjg3.
3
Fountain, Henry, Researchers Link Syrian Conflict to a Drought Made Worse by Climate Change, New York
Times, March 2, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/03/science/earth/study-links-syria-conflict-to-drought-
caused-by-climate-change.html.
4
Friedman, Thomas, The Revolution Fueled by Climate Change, http://weather.climate25.com/project/thomas-
friedman/.
5
Pope Francis, Laudato Si, encyclical on environment and human ecology, May 2015, https://laudatosi.com/watch.
6
Conaway, Cameron, Climate change and slavery: the perfect storm? The Guardian, December 13, 2013,
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2013/dec/13/slavery-climate-change-
poverty.
7
Technically referred to as the Levelized Cost of Electricity or LCOE, which is the average kWh cost over the life
of the power plant. LBNL, Study Finds that the Price of Wind Energy in the United States is at an All-time Low,
Averaging under 2.5/kWh, August 10, 2015, http://newscenter.lbl.gov/2015/08/10/study-finds-that-the-price-of-
wind-energy-in-the-united-states-is-at-an-all-time-low-averaging-under-2-5%C2%A2kwh/.
8
LBNL, Price of Solar Energy in the United States Has Fallen to 5/kWh on Average, Berkeley Lab study reveals
70% decline in PPA prices since 2009, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, September 30, 2015,
http://newscenter.lbl.gov/2015/09/30/price-of-solar-energy-in-the-united-states-has-fallen-to-5%C2%A2kwh-on-
average/.
9
UCS, And the Cheapest Electricity in the U.S. Is Solar? Union of Concerned Scientists, July 13, 2015,
http://blog.ucsusa.org/john-rogers/cheapest-electricity-in-the-us-is-solar-power-799.
10
Jacobson, Mark and Mark Delucchi et al., 100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight (WWS) All-
Sector Energy Roadmaps for 139 Countries of the World, August 9, 2015,
https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html.
11
Jacobson, Mark and Mark Delucchi et al., 100% clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) all-sector
energy roadmaps for the 50 United States, Journal of Energy & Environmental Science, May 17, 2015, Royal
Society of Chemistry, https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html.
12
Ibid., p. 21. Fig. 5 Time-dependent change in U.S. end-use power demand for all purposes (electricity,
transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) and its supply by conventional fuels and WWS generators based on
the state roadmaps proposed here. Total power demand decreases upon conversion to WWS due to the efficiency
of electricity over combustion and end-use energy efficiency measures. The percentages on the horizontal date
axis are the percent conversion to WWS that has occurred by that year. The percentages next to each WWS source
are the final estimated penetration of the source. The 100% demarcation in 2050 indicates that 100% of all-
purpose power is provided by WWS technologies by 2050, and the power demand by that time has decreased.
Karl Burkart, personal communication.
13
IMF, How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies? Prepared by David Coady, Ian Parry, Louis Sears, and Baoping
Shang, May 2015, IMF Working Paper (WP/15/105), Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund,
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=42940.0.
14
Americans for Prosperity, No Climate Tax pledge, http://americansforprosperity.org/noclimatetax/.
15
Shapiro, Ilana, Theories of Change, January 2005, The Beyond Intractability Knowledge Base Project, Conflict
Information Consortium, University of Colorado, Boulder, http://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/theories-of-
change.

17
16
Connell, J. & Kubisch, A. (1998). Applying a Theory of Change Approach to Evaluating Comprehensive
Community Initiatives. In Fulbright-Anderson, Kubisch, & Connell (Eds.) New Approaches to Evaluating
Community Initiatives, Vol 2. Aspen Institute,
http://www.seachangecop.org/files/documents/1998_ToC_and_evaluation_of_community_initiatives.pdf, cited in
Shapiro, Theories of Change, 2005, footnote 14.
17
Mittermeier, Totten et al, Climate for Life: Meeting the Global Challenge, 2008, Conservation International and
Cemex.
18
To cite just one illustrative example, see Amory Lovins et al., Reinventing Fire: Bold Business Solutions for the
New Energy Era (2011), available from the Rocky Mountain Institute, Boulder, CO (http://www.rmi.org/) .
Similar in depth and breadth of detail to Jacobson & Delucchi et als 100% WWS, Reinventing Fire also puts
forward a portfolio of market practices and public policies to facilitate this money-saving transition (over $5
trillion net savings in just the U.S. alone).

18