Turkey tourism the collapse of a famous Titan

In 2014, TripAdvisor, the worlds popular and largest travel site, announced that Istanbul
is the winner of the Travelers Choice awards for Destination. A big and somehow announced
success, given the great strategy that the Ministry of Culture and Tourism from Turkey,
implemented starting since 2003. With a climb of 11 places from the previous year, in 2014
Istanbul has surpassed popular cities such as Rome, London or Paris.

Source: https://www.tripadvisor.com/

And the people who was surprised about the new lider of the clasament understood rapidly
why that happend. Istanbul is a vibrant city which embodies both ancient and modern. It's chock-
full of historic mosques and monuments, but it also has tons of hip boutiques, cool restaurants, and
design-savvy boutique hotels that hipsters, foodies, artists and fashionistas love. In 2014, Turkey
was the 17th largest economy in the world, with a GDP of $820 billion. At that time, Turkey had
set an ambitious target to become one of the ten largest economies in the world by 2023, the
centenary of the foundation of the Turkish Republic. That required to Turkey to triple its economy
to more than $2 trillion, develop a $500 billion export sector, and make significant upgrades to its
energy, information technology, finance, and physical infrastructures. But the odds was not by
Turkeys side and the country that welcomed 41 million visitors in 2015 and the sixth most popular
tourist destination in the world, is expected to see a drop of at least 40% this year.

Distribution of visitors arriving in Turkey

by years and months
5 000 000
4 500 000
4 000 000
3 500 000
3 000 000
2 500 000
2 000 000
1 500 000
1 000 000
500 000

JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE

2015 1 594 400 1 751 380 2 269 962 2 768 482 4 187 786 4 482 621
2016* 1 521 249 1 631 277 2 034 471 2 219 619 3 029 374 2 902 139
2015 2016*

Source: Ministry of Culture and Tourism, Turkey

Disgraces are like cherries, one draws another

The decline in tourism has also coincided with a period of growing rancor in Turkeys
relations with other world powers. After the military shot down a Russian fighter jet along the
Syrian border in November 2015, a diplomatic crisis erupted. Russian President Vladimir Putin
imposes sanctions on Turkeylong a popular destination for Russian vacationershampering
tourism and economic ties.
Terrorism and political instability has triggered an unprecedented switch away from
Turkey. For a long time, Turkey reprezented a zone of stability between Europe and the Middle
East and now is facing a long period of high tension, caught between the fight against Kurdish
militants in easter part and the the fight to prevent the spread of violance in Syria towards territory.
Ankara sees the Kurdish militants, the main threat to the state, but the attacks also come from
terrorist Islamic State.

Deteriorating security
Turkey was involved in a conflict on two fronts: one on the inside of the cuntry and one
across the border, in Syria. The Government of Ankara, led for decades an internal war with the
PKK, considered a terrorist group by the Turkey and also by the West. For a period of two years,
everything seemed to be quiet but this period of relative calm ended in July 2015 after the murder
of 32 young Kurdish activists, in the city Suruc in the southeast of Turkey. The target, apparently
an ISIS militant, planned to go to northern Syria to help rebuild Koban, a city devastated by the
jihadist group. That was a clear sign on the extension of the Syrian conflict on Turkey.
After a wave of attacks and counter attacks of the army, PKK accused the authorities that
they wish ISIS's victory and the end of the control of the Kurds in parts of Syria and Iraq. For
PKK, the targets were the government and military objectives in the southeast part of the country.
But TAK is a more radical group, so that its attacks are more violent and aims the busiest cities:
Ankara and Istanbul.

The Syrian conflict

Turkey was caught in the Syrian conflict, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been
one of the first leaders who requested the remove of thee leader from Damascus, Bashar al-Assad.
Meanwhile, Ankara has increasingly become concerned by the attempts of the Kurdish groups to
take control of the northern parts of Syria, fearing the increasing influence of the People's
Protection Units (YPG) and the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD). In 2014, three regions
were declared autonomous and in 2015 YPG took over from ISIS, the control on the border of
Syria with Turkey on a stretch of almost 400 kilometers. When Russia intervened in the Syrian
conflict, in September last year, the Kurds from Syria, with the Syrian army and Russian allies
advanced and won territories in north of Aleppo.

Turkey's coup attempt - who was behind?

 The Turkish army has historically intervened in politics as it sees itself as the protector of
Turkey's secularism and democracy - there have been four military coups since 1960. The military
has had tensions with Mr Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) over its brand of
political Islamism. The president has also cracked down on free media and is seen as an
authoritarian by many people. The government of Turkey, has blamed Fethullah Gulen, a
powerful, reclusive US-based Muslim cleric whom it accuses of fomenting unrest, but Mr Gulen
denied in public the claims and has condemned the coup.
After the coup attempt, many soldiers have claimed to have been told they were taking part
in military exercises and did not know a coup was being attempted. Meanwhile, the government
has arrested over 6000 people, including high-ranking judges and soldiers.

Challenges and hope

The economists are worried that tourism revenues will drop by a quarter this year, which
will cost Turkey about eight billion dollars and will erase more than half a point of the country's
economic growth. However, given that last year tourism was responsible for half of the current
account earnings, the decrease number of visitors will create problems for the Central Bank's
objective to reduce the deficit from the alarming 4.5% of GDP recorded in 2015. Turkish
authorities have announced a plan aiming to offer emergency support to the tourism sector, which
includes a grant of 255 million pounds (87 million dollars) and a feature that allows tourism
companies to restructure their debts. It is not clear yet which will be the impact of these measures.

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