Forecasts, Trends, and Ideas about the Future www.wfs.

org Summer 2015

Six Key Areas

of Investment for the Science of
CYBERSECURITY
Conversations with NEWT GINGRICH,
ELAINE KAMARCK, PETER SCHIFF
and DENNIS KUCINICH

Conversation with The Futurist: Transforming Society by Teaching

Gina Bianchini Everyday People the Characteristics of a
How Trends in Interpersonal Modern Hero
Relationships Will Disrupt our Social An Interview with Science Fiction Writer
and Business Traditions Tobias Buckell
WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY
EMPOWERING FUTURISTS. SHAPING FUTURES.
3220 N STREET NW #161
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20007, USA
+1.301.656.8274 | 1.800.989.8274
WFS.ORG
The World Future Society is the first membership
organization in the world for people who research,
envision and create potential futures. Our mission
is to improve decision-making about the future
by empowering futurists, fostering networks
and advancing knowledge and action on future-
critical issues.
The organization was founded in 1966 by Edward
Cornish, who went on to write Futuring: Exploring
the Future, a foundational text still used in many
classrooms today.Prominent early members
included Buckminster Fuller, Robert McNamara,
Arthur C. Clarke, Herman Kahn and Alvin and
Heidi Toffler.
Today, the World Future Society provides robust
tools, cutting-edge ideas and opportunities
to collaborate through its newsletters and
publications, events and conferences, and a
global chapter network in countries around
the world.
The World Future Society is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit
educational and scientific organization,
incorporated and located in Washington, D.C.
The WFS Transformation:
In order to support the urgent need for
anticipatory decision-making in a complex and
rapidly changing world, WFS has embarked on
a multi-year modernization and transformation
designed to culminate in WFS 2.0 by 2017. WFS
2.0 will be the worlds premiere ecosystem for
empowering futurists, igniting dialogue about the
future and shaping futures.
WFS.ORG
Summer 2015
Volume 49, No. 1

A magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future

ARTICLES
8 Conversation with The 22 Looking Forward:
Futurist: Gina Bianchini How Trends in Interpersonal
By Amy Zalman Relationships Will Disrupt our
A wide-ranging interview with this Social and Business Traditions
entrepreneur, investor and futurist, By Helen Fisher
currently the CEO of social networking
startup Mightybell. Transforming Society by Teaching
Everyday People the Characteristics
of a Modern Hero
10 Six Key Areas of Investment for
Six Key Areas of Investment for By Philip Zimbardo
the Science of Cybersecurity
the Science of Cybersecurity By Dan Geer Two famous academics give their takes
see page 10 on the future of how we live as people
An erudite overview of the current state and as societies.
of cybersecurity, and how scientific
DEPARTMENTS approaches toward it will help us in the
26 Last Word: How Science
near future.
3 Letter from the Editor Fiction Makes Better Futurists
An Interview with Science Fiction
16 Looking Backward:
5 Letter from the CEO Writer Tobias Buckell
Conversations with Newt Gingrich,
By Brenda Cooper
Elaine Kamarck, Peter Schiff
30 Consultants and Services and Dennis Kucinich One science fiction writer interviews
another about how the genre bears on
We take a look back 10 years at diverse
professional futurists.
predictions about international relations,
the global economy, innovation,
and more.

Transforming Society
Conversations with Newt Gingrich,
by Teaching Everyday
Conversation with Elaine Kamarck, Peter Schiff
People the
The Futurist: and Dennis Kucinich
Characteristics of a
Gina Bianchini see page 16 Modern Hero
see page 8 see page 24

Interview with Tobias Buckell

see page 26

COVER PHOTOGRAPH: SHUTTERSTOCK

2015 World Future Society. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or part without written permission is prohibited. THE FUTURIST is a registered trademark of the World Future Society. Printed in the U.S.A.
THE FUTURIST (ISSN 0016-3317) is published by the World Future Society, 3220 N Street Northwest, #161, Washington D.C.,20007, U.S.A. Included with membership in the World Future Society.
POSTMASTER: Send address changes to THE FUTURIST, 3220 N Street Northwest, #161, Washington D.C., 20007. OWNERSHIP: THE FUTURIST is owned exclusively by the World Future Society, a
nonpartisan educational and scientific organization incorporated in the District of Columbia and recognized by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service as a nonprofit tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(3)
of the Internal Revenue Code. CHANGE OF ADDRESS: Email to info@wfs.org or call: +1-800-989-8274.

www.wfs.org THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 1

 OFFICERS
CEO & President: Amy Zalman
Treasurer: Jennifer Rose
Secretary: Les Wallace

DIRECTORS Adolfo Castilla Julio Milln

Evan Faber economist, president, Banco de Tecnologias,
aide to the CEO, Change.org communications professor, Madrid and chairman, Grupo Coraza, Mexico

Joyce Gioia Marvin J. Cetron Joergen Oerstroem Moeller

president and CEO, The Herman Group president, visiting senior research fellow,
Forecasting International Ltd. ISEAS, Singapore
Zhan Li
strategic foresight analyst, Hugues de Jouvenel Ramez Naam
University of Southern California executive director, computer scientist and author
Association Internationale Futuribles
Eric Meade (Chair) John Naisbitt
principal, The Whole Mind Strategy Group Yehezkel Dror trend analyst and author
professor,
Mylena Pierremont Hebrew University of Jerusalem Burt Nanus
president, Ming Pai Consulting BV author and professor emeritus
Esther Franklin of management, University of
Gabriela Prada executive vice president and Southern California
director of Health Innovation, Policy and director of cultural identities,
Evaluation, The Conference Board of Canada Starcom MediaVest Group Joseph N. Pelton
founder and vice chairman,
Jennifer Rose William E. Halal Arthur C. Clarke Foundation
vice president, corporate controller, professor of management science and
Summit Materials, LLC director of Emerging Technologies Project, Timothy M. Persons
George Washington University chief scientist,
Les Wallace
U.S. Government Accountability Office
president, Signature Resources Inc. Peter Hayward
program director, John L. Petersen
Jared Weiner
Strategic Foresight Program, Swinburne president, The Arlington Institute
vice president, Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.
University of Technology, Australia
Francis Rabuck
Amy Zalman
Barbara Marx Hubbard director, Technology Research,
CEO and president, World Future Society
president, Bentley Systems Inc.

GLOBAL ADVISORY COUNCIL The Foundation for Conscious Evolution

Paul Saffo
Stephen Aguilar-Millan Sohail Inayatullah managing director of foresight,
European Futures Observatory professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan Discern Analytics

Raja Ikram Azam Zhouying Jin Robert Salmon

honorary chairman, president, former vice president,
Pakistan Futuristics Foundation Beijing Academy of Soft Technology LOreal Corporation, Paris

Raj Bawa Eleonora Barbieri Masini Marcio de Miranda Santos

president/patent agent, Bawa Biotech LLC, professor emerita, executive director,
and adjunct professor, Faculty of Social Sciences, Center for Strategic Studies and
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Gregorian University, Rome Management in Science, Brasilia, Brazil

Clement Bezold Graham May Maurice F. Strong

chairman and senior futurist, principal lecturer in futures research, secretary general, U.N. Conference on
Institute for Alternative Futures Leeds Metropolitan University, U.K. Environment and Development

The World Future Society is a nonprofit educational and scientific association dedicated to
promoting a better understanding of the trends shaping our future.

Founded in 1966, the Society serves as a neutral clearinghouse for ideas about the future;
it takes no stand on what the future will or should be like. The Societys publications, conferences,
and other activities are open to all individuals and institutions around the world.

For more information on membership programs, contact WFS by email at info@wfs.org.

3220 N Street NW, #161, Washington DC 20007

Telephone: 1-301-656-8274, Toll free: 1-800-989-8274
Web site: www.wfs.org E-mail: info@wfs.org

A Publication of the World Future Society
Editorial Emeritus
Edward Cornish (Founding Editor)
Editorial Staff
Mark Drapeau
Publisher and Executive Editor
Daniel Schweon
Staff Editor
Alexandra Morrill
Art Director
Contact Us
Advertising inquiries: info@wfs.org
Submissions/Editorial Questions:
mdrapeau@wfs.org
Other queries: mdrapeau@wfs.org
THE FUTURIST
World Future Society
3220 N Street Northwest, #161,
Washington D.C., 20007, U.S.A.
Telephone: 301-656-8274 or 800-989-8274
info@wfs.org
www.wfs.org/futurist
letter from the editor
W
elcome to the beginnings of a new magazine.
I am very pleased to be serving as the interim
publisher and executive editor of The Futurist.
In this role, I will be reassessing both the business-side
and editorial-side to create a financially viable publication
creating valuable content aligned with the long-term
vision of the World Future Society.
These changes wont happen overnight, but we have
been working behind the scenes to put The Futurist on a
strong new trajectory.
Today, I hope you enjoy this Summer 2015 issue, in
which we have begun some small experiments with
content and design. Next, you can expect a Winter 2015
issue, for which we are actively planning an extensive 50-
year retrospective of both the archives of The Futurist and
of the World Future Society as a whole.
Then, in 2016, you can look forward to something
entirely new.
Ill be sharing much more of my vision for The Futurist
with you inthe future. Meanwhile, I promise that whats
coming will be fresh, interesting, and relevant to your life
and work. I wont be doing this in a bubble, but rather in
close collaboration with WFS CEO Amy Zalman and new
staff. I will also be forming an advisory board of diverse
people to help me plot the right course and steer our way
through it.
I also welcome your comments and feedback as
World Future Society members. Please tell me what you
have liked, and have not liked, in the past. Let me know
about potential features you would find useful. Along the
path to making The Futurist as valuable as possible to its
readership, Id also like to know what else you read and
why. What value does it add to your life? What does it lack?
You can reach me anytime at mdrapeau@wfs.org.
Thank you for entrusting me with this opportunity.
I look forward to working with your vibrant community.
Mark
www.wfs.org THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 3
WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY
EMPOWERING FUTURISTS. SHAPING FUTURES.
MEMBERSHIP BENEFITS
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a message from the ceo

DEAR FELLOW FUTURIST,

In 1966, Edward Cornish had the powerful insight that
the world needs an organization to serve as a neutral
clearinghouse for the exchange of ideas about the
future. Armed with that insight, and many dedicated
volunteers, he founded the World Future Society, a non-
profit 501(c)(3) corporation based in Washington D.C.
Today, the accelerating rate of change in areas from
technology to the global economy to our social and civic
lives make the need for such a global organization to
champion intelligent, imaginative approaches to the
future even more acute.
That organization is the World Future Society. For
fifty years, WFS has served as the worlds largest and
most impactful organization to advocate for thoughtful,
systematic, approaches to understanding the future. Yet,
conditions today are different than they were 50 years
ago. As a result, we needed a new kind of WFS to serve
the emergent needs of a global community.
When I took on the job of WFS CEO one year ago, I
pledged to ensure that WFS successfully serves its mis-
sion for at least another 50 years, by spearheading a
multi-year transformation and modernization program.
Here are some of the broad elements of this program for Amy Zalman, CEO
which I have been laying ground in the last year: and President of the
Become even more global. WFS has always been World Future Society
remarkably international. Today we have members in
over 80 countries, with 80% of them in the United States
and 20% in other countries. In order to support a global Strengthen ties between futures work and active deci-
community and enhance foresight on transnational sion making on future-critical issues. In the first two
issues, I will continue the groundwork laid this year to generations of WFS, the field of futures studies was
strengthen our international chapter network and, by established. As a result, today there are many tech-
2017, to develop new, regionally-focused activities. niques for better understanding what might and could
Strengthen member benefits. WFS would not exist were unfold. Going forward, WFS will also be an advocate of
it not for our members, and it is critical for WFS going strong action: by promoting foresight as a leadership
forward to provide individual and institutional mem- skill, enhancing institutional capacity, and improving
bers with meaningful returns on their investment, such decision making on future-critical issues.
as global professional networking, educational and Moderniz e and update The Futurist magazine .
work opportunities, as well as access to unique research The Futurist magazine and brand has been an important
and analysis, to name a few. benefit to many in our community over the years. Rec-
Establish a digital-first and multimedia content ognizing that importance, I am delighted to introduce
strategy. WFS was born in the print era, and its print with this issue our new interim Publisher and Executive
magazine The Futurist is remembered fondly all over the Editor, Mark Drapeau, who has taken the reigns for the
world as an important part of many childhoods. Now, remainder of 2015 and will be taking steps toward a
we will combine our efforts in print with a variety of complete re-envisioning and re-launch in 2016.
other communications mechanisms to better reach our
My agenda is ambitious, and it wont happen overnight.
global network and support more effective global infor-
But the World Future Society has a crucial message to
mation and knowledge exchanges.
relay: that we have the capacity to understand and act
Increase our gender and age diversity. WFS and the
in ways that shape better futures: for ourselves, our
field of foresight will benefit from greater diversity,
communities, our businesses and governments, and our
and I am confident that WFS has a strong community
planet. Such an important message deserves all the
to offer a diverse community of futurists. I will be
energetic focus we can bring to it.
working in the next few years to reach out to women
of all ages, to students, and to young and mid-career Warm Regards,
professionals globally. Amy

www.wfs.org THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 5

2015 World Future Society All rights reserved.
 T H E WO R L D F U T U R E S O C I E T Y
2014 DONORS:

Thank You
THE WORLD FUTURE SOCIETY IS DEEPLY GRATEFUL TO OUR 2014 DONORS.

Your financial contributions are playing a vital role in keeping the practice of
foresight and future-critical issues in arenas such as the environment, the global
economy, governance, and everyday life in view of decision-makers and citizens
around the world.

Contributors to the Susan Echard Scholarship Fund supported activities at the

annual conference and new initiatives for students in 2015 and 2016.

This year, your contributions also helped WFS begin the important process of
modernizing and transforming our program benefits, global network, and digital
infrastructure. To learn more about how you can help shape the future, read
more about the WFS transformation at http://www.SupportWFS.org.

The WFS is chartered under U.S. laws (District of Columbia) as a nonprofit, tax
exempt scientific and educational association and recognized by the U.S. Internal
Revenue Service as a tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(3) of the
Internal Revenue Code. Gifts are deductible on U.S. income tax returns.

If you would like to make a donation to the Society, please call us at +1-301-
856-or donate online at http://www.SupportWFS.org
 T H E WO R L D F U T U R E S O C I E T Y
OUR CONTRIBUTORS

INSTITUTIONS Nicholas St. George Stevens Pendleton

Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc. Edward Gordon John S. Reidy
The Morning Star Company Linda Groff William Rowley
Oracle Education Foundation Bonnie Haufe Edwin G. Sather
L. Fielding Hower Larry Smead
Henry G. Hudson Eileen Swerdlick
INDIVIDUALS Barbara Hulka Judy Tatman
Mikel Aizpurua Kenneth W. Hunter Dean Thacker
Katherine Antal Anvay Idiatullin Edward Thomas
Tom Bliffert Ernest H. Jernigan Joel Ticknor
Karen Carnahan Nico van Klaveren Paul Tinari
Denise Cavanaugh Guido George Lombardi Daniel Tuuri
Jose Luis Rodriquez Cervantes Sam Lovalenti Nicole Trapp
Douglas Congdon Bernard Maloney Charles Unger
Brenda Cooper Michael Marien Les Wallace
Edward Cornish Gary D. Marx Robert Wells
Mike Dababie Om Marwah Phil Witkowicz
Victor Daniels W. N. Mathews Greta and Marvin Zalman
Richard A. Feder Michael Maw Kathleen Zellmer
Michael Francoeur Lawrence C. McSwain Peter A. Zuckerman
Cameran Frisbee Robert Moran
Rodrigo I. Galindo Mack B. Pearsall
conversation with the futurist

By AMY ZALMAN

Gina Bianchini
The serial entrepreneur,
investor, and closeted
futurist talks about the global
competition startups face,
dating apps, military tactics
and being an introvert.
I arrive at the St. Regis hotel in San Francisco fresh off a
flight from Washington, D.C., where Ill have just enough
time to hang out with Gina Bianchini at the Bloomberg
Technology Conference before she herself needs to catch
a flight. Later today, shell be sitting on a panel named Gina
Management Tips from Hackers, ostensibly about the Bianchini
differences between how engineers and MBAs view man-
agement.
Engineers and MBAs certainly tend to dress differently.
Software that authentically recreates the atmosphere of
Im relieved when Gina arrives wearing the same thing
a cocktail party or business networking event is a bit of a
I am the San Francisco tech business uniform jeans,
Holy Grail in the tech industry at the moment, with gi-
jacket, black high-heeled pumps. Its a welcome change
ants like Google, Facebook, and Microsoft (with Yammer)
from the Washington fashion scene of dark suits and the
and upstarts such as Mightybell and Slack all funded and
occasional seersucker. Glad I got the memo.
elbowing for space. Its not easy. First, the code must le-
After trying a few locations, Gina and I (with some
verage the power of context to uncover new relation-
help from her publicist) carve out a relatively quiet space
ship dynamics between people who dont know each
in the main lobby, downstairs from the main hall where
other. Then, software needs to break the ice, which pre-
the conference activities are occurring. The entire place is
sumably isnt any easier digitally than at a hotel bar.
alive with energy; bustling, Id recall later. Bloombergs
Gina herself has sought this Holy Grail for a while. In
brand essence is something like a cross between a movie
2004, she co-founded (with Marc Andreessen) another
set and a spa, with extremely good-looking people mi-
platform for forming custom social networks, Ning. It
grating between a cornucopia of yogurt, nuts, berries,
launched in October 2005, perhaps ahead of its time.
and herbal tea, makeup chairs, TV cameras, and confer-
While it had novel features and successfully attracted the
ence talks. Its actually not unlike their headquarters on
likes of everything from the informal government em-
Lexington Avenue in New York, I think to myself.
ployee social network GovLoop to the bands Linkin Park
Ginas startup, Mightybell, is top of mind for her, and
and Weezer, it has also gone through business model piv-
she repeatedly comes back to it as a foundation of sorts
ots and layoffs. She left as CEO in 2010, when she became
throughout our conversation. The company has raised a
an entrepreneur-in-residence at venture firm Andreessen
few million dollars in venture capital, and has a free-
Horowitz.
mium business model. For me, its about the power of
But shes confident that Mightybells vision is oriented
context in terms of uncovering and creating different
in the right direction for the future. Our strong belief is
kinds of relationship dynamics, especially among people
that technology gets better and better at surfacing the
who dont already know each other, because I think that
right people to each other, the most relevant people to
that is the piece that wasnt possible 20 years ago without
each other. Then the probability of making new relation-
a lot of work that today can be instantaneous, she says
ships goes up significantly. Its not a guarantee. But it
when I ask her about big vs. small, or general versus spe-
goes up significantly. These are the modern guilds for
cialized social networks.

8 THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 www.wfs.org

2015 World Future Society All rights reserved.
the 21st century, she tells me later. in these pockets. We want to bring it to as many people
Our chat isnt all work, as we quickly develop chemis- around the world as possible.
try with each other. I find her extremely personable, at Our conversation touches on the truly global nature of
ease, comfortable in her own skin. She volunteers to bal- business, including startups, in the modern age. The oft-
ance my iPhone on her lap during the interview to cap- held notion that Silicon Valley companies are just com-
ture the conversation. peting with each other is a fallacy. Rather, what we are
The discussion wanders into classic interview question actually seeing today is that we collectively are com-
territory Whats something most people dont know peting on a global basis from day one. So understanding,
about you? Im actually an introvert. A pretty outgoing respecting and appreciating people from different per-
introvert. As Ive gotten older Ive gotten more intro- spectives and backgrounds is I think the number one job
verted and I feel like I want more time to read and think requirement of a founder in 2015 and is certainly one I
and just reflect on all of the different trends going on, es- take seriously.
pecially because Im a systems thinker. I ask her about where she gets her inspirations and the
I can actually begin to see how working on the automa- knowledge that help to guide her as a businessperson.
tion of developing valuable relationships might appeal to Shes certainly eclectic (You have to pay attention to
her nature. She goes on at length to describe how as shes everything, everywhere), with favorite brain candy
gotten older she takes a more disciplined approach to magazines that include InStyle and Vanity Fair, to appar-
taking a step back to reassess all the information avail- ently a strong interest in how people connect and form
able to find the right things to be focusing on. I think different kinds of relationships via dating apps.
this is incredibly important, and more important than Whats happening with Tinder is really interesting but
anything else I do, she tells me. actually whats happening with Grindr is interesting as
I accuse her of being a closeted futurist, and she laughs well. How do you start to think about the things that are
and compliments me for saying the nicest transactional relationships and what are
things about her. Her laugh is hearty, and ... understanding, the things that are relationship relation-
there is plenty of authentic laughter ships. Only by remixing all of the things
throughout our conversation. We also respecting and we are starting to see in other areas into
keep getting interrupted by her many our particular mission, how do we help
friends and acquaintances at the confer- appreciating people professionals that dont know each other
ence; at one point, Padmasree Warrior
one of the keynote speakers drops by.
from different yet, but may have a lot in common,
whether its by topic or by stage of busi-
As a woman working in technology, perspectives and ness or numbers of years in the teaching
and a high-profile serial entrepreneur at profession or by what you teach.
that, she has strong views about struggles backgrounds is I think As for books, she just began reading
and successes in startup land. Not sur- retired General Stanley McChrystals
prisingly, she thinks Mightybell has con- the number one job new book, Team of Teams, which concerns
tributions to make here. A start-up CEO
today is smarter and more informed and
requirement of a optimizing for speed and adaptability
rather than command and control. A lot
sophisticated than when I started as a founder in 2015 of it is interesting to see from a military
founder and CEO in 2000. [She was the perspective, as opposed to a business or
co-founder and president of a media com- engineering perspective. A brash
pany named Harmonic Communications, which was ac- straight-talker (which sometimes got him in hot water),
quired by Dentsu. Marc Andreessen was on the board.] McChrystal is a highly respected Army Special Forces
She goes on at length about the culture of sharing and officer.
transparency that makes Silicon Valley a particularly More generally, she uncovers a lot of her best ideas not
unique place for entrepreneurs to ply their trade. Its a sa- from large conferences (ironically), but rather from one-
lient point a world-class tech hub isnt merely the result on-one conversations with people that are both very sim-
of a lot of people with technical skill working at high ilar to her, and people who have completely different
density. Silicon Valley does have something special, backgrounds that I can learn from.
which she believes Mightybell is capitalizing on and con- Her work with a non-profit called Endeavor supports
tributing to. But she doesnt see why that cant scale be- this learning process for her. Its an organization that
yond the Valley, and even beyond tech, into industries identifies and supports high-potential entrepreneurs in
that havent traditionally been geographically clustered developing nations. What I love about Endeavor is that
or contained transparent cultures of constant learning Ive met some of the most inspiring people who I learn
and growing. from I walk out of these meetings humbled, helping
Her vision is effectively to offer extreme transparency also to give her a holistic global perspective on the busi-
as a service, breaking down barriers and empowering ev- ness shes in with Mightybell (and perhaps her calling in
eryone from small businesses to teachers to learn from life): helping people form unique and fruitful relation-
each other. At Mightybell, we want to be that infrastruc- ships to learn from each other.
ture for creating the kind of innovation that is happening

www.wfs.org THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 9

Six Key Areas of Investment
for the Science of
CYBER
SECURITY
Cybersecurity is perhaps the most difficult
intellectual profession on the planet. The
technical basis for that which needs security
changes rapidly, and we have sentient opponents.
We have no real ability to perform controlled
experiments, yet uncontrolled natural experiments
are all around us all the time even though data
quality from those natural experiments is a
By DAN GEER constantly confounding issue.
SHUTTERSTOCK

10 THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 www.wfs.org

2015 World Future Society All rights reserved.
Editors note:
When I heard Dan Geers talk at
the recent Suits and Spooks con-
ference in New York City, I was
spellbound. His unique speaking
style combined with erudite think-
ing on many cybersecurity topics
made for a fascinating learning
experience.
I wanted to publish his ideas with-
out losing the magic of the in-per-
son experience. While this is truly
one of those you had to be there
situations, this humble magazine
is doing its best to deliver it to
you. Here is Dans talk in (nearly)
unedited form. MD
T
here are fields where it
seems as if scientific prog-
ress has a certain cadence, a
certain predictability, a pace
of progress akin to lava
overspreading a coastal plain, a
largely stable forward velocity. That
does not seem to be the case with cy-
bersecurity, where breakthroughs oc-
cur with an event-rapidity that I just
dont see elsewhere. Maybe Im just
not looking hard enough, but we
seem to be so much closer to the
work factor of a fire department than
to the work factor of an accounting
firm, to pick two examples approxi-
mately at random.
One of the questions we have yet
to answer is whether vulnerabilities
are sparse or dense; if and only if
vulnerabilities are sparse does it ac-
tually make sense to allocate the ef-
fort to find them or reward those
who do. If vulnerabilities are dense,
then treasure should not go to find-
ing them but to making systems re-
silient to them. I ask about this in
varied settings; I get strong and I
mean strong opinions over the
full range of dense to sparse. Smart,
knowledgeable people say too
dense to measure while other
smart, knowledgeable people say
too sparse to measure. Thats not a
trick question. It is a steering ques-
tion like no other.
In the meantime, it seems to me
that we are near a fork in the road, a
fork where one road is that of gener-
ating provably defect-free code fol-
lowed by long term, brutally rigor-
www.wfs.org THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 11
ous change control while the other
road is that of moving target de-
fense, rapid release, DevOps, et ce-
tera. These alternatives seem both
antithetical yet promising and both
are fed by real scientists making real
progress, but after having chosen
one road switching to the other at
some later time seems likely to be in-
feasible. As with the availability
calculus, do we maximize the mean
time between failures or do we mini-
mize the mean time to repair? We
cannot do both nor, therefore, should
we try.
The question of whether cyberse-
curity is yet a science is a hard one. I
am sorely tempted to answer the
question Is cybersecurity a sci-
ence? with Getting closer, but not
yet to say, in other words, that
we are in the pre-paradigmatic stage
with a variety of schools of thought.
We then first ask about candidate
paradigms of cybersecurity. If they
exist and have turned over from
time to time, then my answer would
be simply wrong and cybersecurity
may already be a science. But let me
repeat the one thing that may make
cybersecurity different from all else -
we have sentient opponents. The
physicist does not. The chemist does
not. Not even the economist has sen-
tient opponents. We do. What puz-
zles we have to solve are not drawn
from some generally diminishing
store of unsolved puzzles, nor could
our theories completely explain all
observable fact thus reducing our
worries and our work to engineering
alone. There is something different
about a search for truth when there
isnt any, or at least any that lasts
long enough to exhaustively explore.
Science tends to take us places
where policy cannot follow. Policy
tends to take us places where sci-
ence cannot follow. Yet neither sci-
ence nor policy can be unmindful of
the other. Both science and policy
heavily influence, if not control, the
possible futures we might find our-
selves inhabiting. It is clear that pol-
icy is having ever-greater difficulty
in keeping up with science, yet sci-
ence without policy limits is inevi-
tably dystopian.
In past months, very well-in-
formed individuals have warned
about advances in the fields of both
2015 World Future Society All rights reserved.
artificial intelligence and genetic en-
gineering as being likely to introduce
irreversible, unintended effects that
are permanently incompatible with
fundamental values. I side with the
above in both cases, as I believe ad-
vances in cybersecurity are likewise
introducing irreversible and unin-
tended effects that are permanently
incompatible with fundamental val-
ues.
So, if we are to help science and
policy help each other, what are we to
do? It may be that making predic-
tions is the core value. In that vein, I
will confine myself to six points
where I see science, including applied
science, asking us to look ahead.
Identity
Miniaturization will continue its
long-running progression and as a
consequence, devices will continue
to proliferate into spaces in which
they were never before present. Bur-
geoning proliferation demands de-
vice autonomy, and will get it. For
autonomy to not itself be a source of
irredeemable failure modes, devices
will have individual identities and
some degree of decision-making ca-
pacity.
As device counts grow, device
identity eclipses (human) user iden-
tity because user identity can be de-
rived from device identity insofar as
the proliferation of devices means
that users are each and severally sur-
rounded by multiple devices, de-
vices whose identity is baked into
their individual hardware, as is al-
ready the case in mobile telephony.
There is then neither need nor
process to assert My name is Dan
as Dans several devices will collec-
tively confirm that this is Dan, per-
haps in consultation with each
other. As per Zuboffs Laws1, all de-
vices are therefore sensors and as
the devices themselves have immu-
table device identities, Dans claim
to being Dan is decided algorithmi-
cally. And distally.
Cryptographic keys for users thus
become irrelevant, as devices will
have them, thereby freeing users
from key management much less
password drills. The Fifth Amend-
ment is entirely mooted as Courts
have already ruled that only some-
12 THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 www.wfs.org
2015 World Future Society All rights reserved.
thing you know is protected there-
under, not something you are or
have, that is to say that production
of devices under subpoena cannot
be thwarted.
The longstanding debate over
whether identity should be name-
centric (where Dan is the identity
and some key is an attribute of
Dan) or key-centric (where the key
is the identity and Dan is an attri-
bute of that key) is thus decided in fa-
vor of key-centricity though the keys
are now held in a fog of small de-
vices. This setting mimics how a stra-
tum of elite people carry neither iden-
tification nor money - in the context
of their retinue there is no need for
such.
For the result of this data fusion to
not be a unitary identity for the indi-
vidual user, policy will have to de-
marcate data fusion with a vigor it
has never before dared.
Ownership as perimeter
The paradigm of cybersecurity has
long been perimeter control, but that
same proliferation of devices rewrites
the calculus of what is a perimeter. It
is clear that the design of the Internet
as we now know it rests on two prin-
ciples above all others: preferential at-
tachment and end-to-end communi-
cation protection. Preferential
attachment yields scale-free network
growth that, in turn, maximizes net-
work resistance to random faults;
Internet build-out could not have
happened otherwise. The end-to-
end principle is and has been the
fuel for innovation as end-to-end
scales whereas permission broker-
ing does not.
Both of those principles are under
stress. First, the S-curve of name-ad-
dressable Internet growth passed its
inflection point in November of
2008, and since that time growth
rates have slowed. Second, random
faults no longer comprise the avail-
ability risk they once did, all the
while carriers and governments
alike clearly want non-preferential
attachment, carriers in their desire
for economic hegemony, free-world
governments in their desire for attri-
bution, and unfree-world govern-
ments in their desire to manipulate
information flow.
Add in the proliferation of small
devices and the paradigm of cyberse-
curity can no longer be perimeter
control. For example, lets count cores
in the Qualcomm Snapdragon 801.
The central CPU is 4 cores, the Ad-
reno 330 GPU another 4, Video Out is
1 more, the Hexagon QDSP is 3, the
Modem is at least 2 and most likely 4,
Bluetooth is another 1 as is the USB
controller and the GPS. The Wi-Fi is
at least 1 and most likely 2, and none
of this includes charging, power, or
display. That makes somewhere be-
tween 18 and 21 cores. In the vocabu-
lary of the Internet of Things, I ask
you whether that is one thing or the
better part of two dozen things? It is
pretty certain that each of those cores
can reach the others, so is the perime-
ter to be defended the physical arti-
fact in the users pocket or is it the ex-
ecution space of those cores, each and
severally?
I looked at seven different esti-
mates of the growth of the Internet of
Things as a market phenomenon
everything from smart electric meters
to networked light bulbs to luxury
automobiles - and the median is a
compound annual growth rate of
35%. If perimeter control is to remain
the paradigm of cybersecurity, then
the number of perimeters to defend
in the Internet of Things is doubling
approximately every 24 months.
So what is to be the perimeter of
control from a cybersecurity point of
view? Is it ownership that demarcates
perimeter? More and more of user ca-
pability is controlled by licensure, not
ownership in the dictionary sense of
the word ownership. The science is
taking us away from ownership con-
ferring cradle-to-grave control to-
wards a spectrum of temporally con-
strained permission granting; I can
buy a $200,000 John Deere tractor,
but not until I accept a software li-
cense agreement. I can give you my
bed, but I cannot give you my
iTunes. Self-driving cars are perhaps
as good an illustration as any; over-
the-air auto-update of firmware will
not be optional in either time or
place and vehicle-to-vehicle commu-
nication will do route selection in the
name of the common good. In the
digital world, nothing comes with-
out strings attached.
...science will be under the gun to encode human
ethics into algorithms that will thereafter free run
Control diffusion
As has been shown in finance, if one
entity can do high speed trading
then all must, but whereas predatory
and/or unstable trading is subject to
regulatory control, cyber predation
is not, and cyber predators have zero
legacy drag. As such, turning over
our protections to machines is inevi-
table. Science and startups alike are
delivering a welter of automation for
protection, most not involving re-
condite algorithms but rather big-
data fueled learning about what is
normal, the better to identify that
which is not and thus suspect.
I leave to any policy discussion the
question of whether the speeds at
which cybersecurity automation
must run will even allow occasional
interruption to ask some human op-
erator for permissions to act, or must
cyber kill decisions be automated on
the argument that only when so auto-
mated can they respond in time? If
the latter holds, and I am certain that
it will, science will be under the gun
to encode human ethics into algo-
rithms that will thereafter free run.
Put differently, I predict that it is in
cybersecurity, per se, where the argu-
ment over artificial intelligence will
find its foremost concretization. As an
example of an unevaluable vignette,
the self-driving car will choose be-
tween killing its solo passenger or fif-
teen people on the sidewalk. Many
are the examples of airplane pilots
sacrificing themselves to avoid crash
landing in populated zones. Would
you willingly ride in an altruistic ve-
hicle?
Coupled with algorithmic user
identification, control will enter a
state where trust is multi-way, not
one-to-one. It is hard to overestimate
just how much the client has become
the servers server. Take JavaScript,
which is to say server-side demands
that clients run programs as a condi-
tion of use, or web screens recur-
sively assembled from unidentifiable
third parties; the HTTP Archive says
that the average web page now
makes out-references to 16 different
domains as well as making 17 JavaS-
cript requests per page, and the Ja-
vaScript byte count is five times the
HTML byte count. A lot of that Ja-
vaScript is about analytics, which is
to say, surveillance of the user.
But as a practical matter, any im-
portant control (such as for medical
emergencies) needs an override. Bar-
ring national security situations,
such override is closer to a failure
that must not be silent. That is to say
that if the pinnacle goal of security
engineering is no silent failure,
then the as yet unmet challenge is
how to design cybersecurity such
that it never fails silently. There is
scientific work to be done here - full
automation of cybersecurity maxi-
mizes the downside cost of falsely
positive indicators of attack.
Communications
provenance
Provenance of network traffic will rise
to new importance unrelated to qual-
ity of service or transport neutrality.
Executives delegating correspon-
dence handling to their assistants
have heretofore driven delegation
of credentials; as devices proliferate,
delegation of credentials and au-
thority becomes a necessity across
the board, at least for First World
digerati. Take loading a web page in
a browser: the browser does proxy-
ing, nameservice lookup, etc., and
eventually loads that page plus sub-
sequent web page dependencies,
probably from other sites. In other
words, there are various levels of
who actually requested what,
such as what piece of JavaScript in-
voked Google Analytics. As a one-
Science is rapidly teaching us that everything is
unique if examined at close enough detail.
off experiment, I looked at the top-
most page of cnn.com; there I found
612 HREFs across 38 hosts in 20 do-
mains even without evaluating the
30-odd JavaScripts there. Compe-
tent scientists are studying the issue
of how to characterize multi-dimen-
sional attack surfaces, and we
should attend their results.
Because cybersecurity is to re-
main the driving reason for egress
filtering, provenance as in Who
ordered this page? is the crucial
variable for intelligent flow control.
If cyber integrity of the browser
platform itself is to remain the top-
most user goal, then agency - again
as in Who ordered this page? is
likewise the most important vari-
able for permission decisions.
This need will be met with traffic
analysis extending into the execution
environment. When the general pub-
lic came to need encryption, the
commercial sector caught up to the
military sector in the application of
cryptography within a decade.
Now the marketers are driving the
commercial sector to catch up to the
military sector in traffic analysis.
How the traffic analysis that market-
ers demand (and will get) meshes
with the traffic analysis
of end-users delegating human au-
thority to their growing constellation
of devices remains to be seen, but
w i t h d u a l d e m a n d f o r t r a ff i c
analysis, the commercial sector will
fill that demand one way or another.
But even if the public and the
marketers want some kind of traffic
analysis that is of a toy variety com-
pared to what the military sector
needs, there are two other consider-
ations at play. One is that a non-
negligible fraction of Internet back-
bone traffic cannot be identified by
14 THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 www.wfs.org
2015 World Future Society All rights reserved.
protocol, i.e., it has no provenance
and is likely peer-to-peer. While in-
tentionally obscure traffic may as
easily be pedophiles as heroic free-
dom fighters, in a world where ma-
chines provide cybersecurity by
learning what is normal so as to tag
what is abnormal, the pedophiles
and the freedom fighters will stand
equal chances of being blocked, if
not outed.
The other consideration is junk
traffic, meaning traffic whose emitter
is on autopilot but whose purpose is
long defunct. Years ago, my col-
Some apartment building owners now require that
tenants provide a DNA sample of their dog so that
unscooped poop can be penalized.
leagues spent some time trying to
figure out what was calling one of
our dialup numbers. In the end, it
turned out to be an oil tank in an
abandoned building that was outfit-
ted to request a fill when needed,
and we had inherited the number to
which such requests had once gone.
Junk traffic will have to be dealt
with via provenance or some discov-
erable correlate of provenance. Per-
haps we will remanufacture spam
detection for this purpose. Perhaps
traceability will become the rule of
law as soon as geolocation applies to
the Internet as much as it now ap-
plies to cell phone triangulation.
Everything is unique
Science is rapidly teaching us that
everything is unique if examined at
close enough detail. Facial recogni-
tion is possible at 500 meters, iris rec-
ognition is possible at 50 meters, and
heartbeat recognition is possible at 5
meters. Your dog can identify you by
smell; so, too, can an electronic dogs
nose. Your cell phones accelerome-
ter is plenty sensitive enough to
identify you by gait analysis. A pho-
tograph can be matched to the cam-
era from which it came as well as a
bullet can be matched to the barrel of
the gun through which it passed.
Some apartment building owners
now require that tenants provide a
DNA sample of their dog so that un-
scooped poop can be penalized.
When everything is detectably
unique, decision support of many
sorts becomes possible. Assessing
nuances (such as whether you are
angry) will be embedded in automa-
tons. Accountability will doubtless
be extended to ever more minor be-
haviors. That heartbeat recognition
technology is already slated to be
part of automobiles. Courtroom ali-
bis will soon be backed by cyberse-
curity-like evidence, noting that be-
cause an alibi involves evidence of
innocence rather than of guilt, the
privilege against self-incrimination
is not implicated and is, instead, sub-
ject to compelled disclosure. The tes-
timony of spouses against each other
will be unnecessary their devices
will do.
Opaqueness is forever
Where data science spreads, a mas-
sive increase in tailorability to con-
ditions follows. Even if Moores
Law remains forever valid, there
will never be enough computing,
hence data driven algorithms must
favor efficiency above all else. Yet,
the more efficient the algorithm the
less interrogatable it is; that is to
say, the more optimized the algo-
rithm is, the harder it is to know
what the algorithm is really doing.
The more desirable some particu-
lar automation is judged to be, the
more data it is given. The more data
it is given, the more its data utiliza-
tion efficiency matters. The more its
data utilization efficiency matters,
the more its algorithms will evolve
to opaque operation. Above some
threshold of dependence on such an adoption that makes them critically weil is beyond all doubt correct;
algorithm in practice, there can be no essential? within the career lifetime of nearly
going back. As such, if science The need for what we have hereto- everyone in this room, algorithms
wishes to be useful, preserving algo- fore called cybersecurity is now so will be smarter than we are, and they
rithm interrogatability despite effi- varied that it is no longer a single will therefore be called upon to do
ciency seeking, self-driven evolution field but many. There are perhaps what we cannot - to protect us from
is the research-grade problem now 1000 cybersecurity startups in some other algorithms, and to ask no per-
on the table. If science does not pick stage of the funding game, a fair frac- mission in so doing. Do we, like
this up, then Larry Lessigs charac- tion of them spinouts from highly fo- Ulysses, lash ourselves to the mast or
terization of code as law is fulfilled, cused university research projects. do we, as the some would say, relax
and permanently so. Generalists such as myself cannot be and enjoy the inevitable? What
replacedthere is too much for the would we have science do? What are
Implications: novitiate to learn. The core knowl- the possible futures you will tolerate?
Why this matters edge base has reached the point
where new recruits can no longer
What horses do you want not let out
of the barn?
There is no argument whatsoever hope to someday become competent
that the proliferation of devices and generalists, serial specialization is the This article is an edited version of
information are empowering. Tech- only broad option available to them.
remarks given at the Suits and Spooks
nology is today far more democrati- As I said earlier, cybersecurity is
cally available than it was yesterday perhaps the most difficult intellectual conference (suitsandspooks.com),
and less than it will be tomorrow: 3D profession on the planet. Ray Kurz- June 19, 2015 in New York, NY.
printing, the whole maker com-
munity, DIY biology, micro-drones,
search, home automation, constant
contact with whomever you choose
to be in constant contact with, instru- Do you want to learn how to create
mentation of every stripe and cali-
ber, the steady migration of military the future in an era of accelerating
technology to general government
use thence to the rich thence to the change and complexity?
lumpenproletariat - these are all exam-
ples of democratizing technology.
This is perhaps our last fundamental
tradeoff before the Singularity occurs:
Do we, as a society, want the comfort
and convenience of increasingly tech-
nologic, invisible digital integration
enough to pay for those benefits with
the liberties that must be given up to
be protected from the downsides of
that integration? If, as the late Peter
Bernstein said, risk is that more
things can happen than will, then Join our one-of-a-kind program
what is the ratio of things that can
now happen that are good to things embraced around the world!
that can now happen that are bad? Is
the good fraction growing faster than
the bad fraction or the other way Discover the future...
around? Is there a threshold of inter-
dependence beyond which good or
Create it today!
bad overwhelmingly dominate?
Now that we need cybersecurity
protections to the degree that we do,
to whom does the responsibility de-
volve? If the worst laws are those that
are unenforceable, what would we
hope our lawmakers say about tech-
nologies that are not yet critical but
soon could be? Do we forbid becom- www.TheFuturesSchool.com
ing critically dependent on them
when it is the sheer magnitude of

www.wfs.org THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 15

looking backward

Conversations with
NEWT GINGRICH, ELAINE KAMARCK,
PETER SCHIFF and DENNIS KUCINICH
Every four years, the U.S. National Intelligence Council publishes its Global Trends Report for the incoming or returning
U.S. President. It is also released publicly as a tool for policymakers, academics, and others to use. The report gives a
viewpoint on trends in topics that include economics, demography, ecology, energy, health, governance, security, identity,
and geopolitics, and provides a framework for thinking about the next 20 years.
The Futurist thought it would be insightful to look backward almost ten years at Global Trends 2025, now that were
roughly halfway between its publication and the end of its shelf life. Noteworthy and throught-provoking scenarios laid
out in the report for a newly elected President Obama included:

U.S. influence and power will wane, and the United States will face constricted freedom of action in 2025. China and
Russia will grow in influence. Wealth will also shift away from the United States toward Russia and China.

A
 broader conflict, possibly a nuclear war, could erupt between India and Pakistan. This could cause other nations to
align themselves with existing nuclear powers for protection.

Rising world population, affluence, and shifts in Western dietary habits will increase global demand for food by 50%
by 2030. Some 1.4 billion people will lack access to safe drinking water.

After its publication, this magazine interviewed four experts with a range of backgrounds and viewpoints about the report. These
conversations with Newt Gingrich, Elaine Kamarck, Peter Schiff and Dennis Kucinich span numerous topics that are very top-of-
mind in 2015, including STEM education as a national security issue, student debt loads, a RAND for cybersecurity, the possi-
bility of a failed Mexico, the ambition and limits of a rising China, and the power of American innovation.

As we anticipate the upcoming Global Trends 2035 report to come after the next Presidential election in November 2016,
this short retrospective highlights the promise and challenges of forecasting policy-related issues twenty years out.

INTERVIEWER: To what extent do
you agree with the key points
outlined in the Global Trends 2025
report?
NEWT GINGRICH: The influence and
power of the United States may
decline, but this will not be a decline
in our economic, political, or military
strength. Rather than the United States
enjoying the role of the worlds lone
superpower, as we do today, the
influence of other countries such as
India and China will increase in
relative terms. As the countries with
the two largest populations, India and
China will certainly have a voice in the
next quarter century, and their current
economic growth, along with the
attendant increase in their military
strength, will support that voice.
With respect to India and Pakistan,
the United States can do much in the
way of reducing tensions between
them. What we are witnessing is a
continuing ascendance in the strategic
importance of both nations. The No-
vember 2008 terrorist attacks in Mum-
bai have raised tensions between India
and Pakistan considerably. The United
States can continue to work with both
nations to reduce these tensions, find
common ground where possible, and
forge a cooperative relationship be-
tween them.
INTERVIEWER: Are the events laid
out in the report inevitable?
N E W T G I N G R I C H : Nothing is
inevitable. In my book, Implementing
the Art of Transformation, I provide a
point of reference for considering
what the decades ahead may look like.
There will be more growth in scientific
knowledge in the next 25 years than
occurred during the past 100 years.
We are exceeding, by four to seven

16 THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 www.wfs.org

2015 World Future Society All rights reserved.

times, the rate of change of the past 25
years. This means that, by even the
most conservative estimate, in the next
25 years, we will experience the scale
of change experienced between 1909
and 2009.
INTERVIEWER: How might the
negative scenarios be averted?
NEWT GINGRICH: Access to natural
resources and energy may be the most
important challenge the world faces in
the next quarter century. We must
develop a strategy for global energy
abundance that maximizes both
production and the efficiency with
which energy is used. This sort of
strategy would have a significant
positive impact toward reducing or
preventing future conflicts.
INTERVIEWER: How might the U.S.
government, and how might U.S.
citizens, cope with a state of
diminished influence, a wealthier and
more powerful Asia, and intensified
competition over resources?
NEWT GINGRICH: Education will be
the key issue that determines our
continued strength and prosperity in a
world where China and India have
increased influence. If you read A
Nation at Risk, published more than 25
years ago, it makes clear that the
education of our children is a serious
national security concern and that
parents, administrators, teachers,
lawmakers, and leaders of this nation
need to view it as such and respond
accordingly. Finding innovative ways
to dramatically improve how our
children learn - especially in math and
science - will make the biggest
difference for our future.
INTERVIEWER: What do you see as
the worst-case scenario, and the best-
case scenario, of the above events
coming to pass?
NEWT GINGRICH : Within the key
points you provide, the worst-case
scenario would be a belligerent China
and a resurgent and belligerent Russia.
Likewise, a complete breakdown in
relations between India and Pakistan
and a corresponding threat of nuclear
war would be destabilizing to the
entire world.
Obviously, the best-case scenario
would be increased cooperation and
stronger, closer relationships among
the United States, China, Russia, In-
dia, as well as Pakistan. A common
recognition of the future threats to our
livelihood that the global community
faces as our populations increase and
our needs for greater amounts of en-
ergy increase is essential. This recogni-
tion by all today and cooperation in
achieving solutions would do much in
terms of growing the global economy,
as well as enabling health and pros-
perity for all.
www.wfs.org THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 17
CREDIT:SHUTTERSTOCK
INTERVIEWER : Might decreased
geopolitical influence, with increased
power in China, actually be good for
the United States in some way?
NEWT GINGRICH : It depends. We
have a choice with China: coopera-
tion or competition. Certainly if we
strengthen our relationship with
China, an economically and militarily
strong China would be within our na-
tional interests to maintain stability in
the Western Pacific region.
INTERVIEWER: What is the report
overlooking?
NEWT GINGRICH: The report doesnt
look closely enough at the impact of
a failed Mexico. A failed state on our
southern border is a significant
national security threat to the United
States.
INTERVIEWER: What would you add
to the above list of key points?
NEWT GINGRICH: Cybersecurity. As
we continue to integrate computers
into every single aspect of our lives, we
are creating a significant vulnerability
to our very livelihood. What we need
today is a cyber think tank staffed by
the generation today that lives and
breathes in the electronic world. The
institution would be set up much like
the RAND Corporation was, with
the exclusive purpose of ensuring the
survivability of our networks
and data.
INTERVIEWER: Whats the most
important trend that will shape U.S.
policy in the next two decades?
N E W T G I N G R I C H : I n c re a s i n g
worldwide demand for energy with
decreasing resources. We must take
concrete steps today to become energy
independent.
INTERVIEWER: What can we begin
doing now to ease our transition into
this new world?
Education will be the key issue that determines our
continued strength and prosperity in a world where China
and India have increased influence.
NEWT GINGRICH: We must make
smart choices today that are an invest-
ment in our future. We need to funda-
mentally transform litigation, regula-
tion, taxation, education, health,
energy, infrastructure, and our na-
tional security apparatuses. The poli-
cies that we have in place today reflect
the realities of the twentieth century.
We cant compete globally with our
current laws, systems, and obsolete
bureaucracies; they dont have the
flexibility or effectiveness required to
manage the issues of the day. All of
this seems to be a huge undertaking
and it is but it can be done. It
must be done.
***
INTERVIEWER: To what extent do
you think the above outlined points
such as a wealth migration from
the United States to Asia, potential
war between India and Pakistan
are likely?
ELAINE KAMARCK: I dont see a
shift in wealth away from the United
States toward Russia or China, espe-
cially not Russia. Thats too pessimis-
tic precisely because the structural
components of innovation in the
United States culturally, legally
are so strong. The cultural and legal
components for innovation in the rest
of the world are, frankly, so weak.
Broader conflict between India and
Pakistan? I dont see the United States
allowing that to happen. I think that,
as bad as the United States has been
when it comes to predicting asymmet-
ric warfare, the United States is adept
and prepared for more traditional
18 THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 www.wfs.org
2015 World Future Society All rights reserved.
kinds of warfare. We monitor nuclear
materials around the world carefully.
As for rising world population and
affluence, surely were already seeing
shifts in Western dietary habits. There
will be increases in world population,
in demand for food, and in affluence,
but this will be countermanded by the
downsides of Western dietary habits
such as obesity and all the diseases
that come from obesity and there
will be significant environmental
problems resulting from the provision
of all this food. This is a pretty
complicated situation. Countries may
take countermeasures instead of
adopting Western dietary standards,
for both environmental and human
health.
INTERVIEWER: What you are saying
is that the primary focus in the United
States must be maintaining a culture
of innovation and economic openness?
ELAINE KAMARCK: That includes
controversial things like keeping fairly
open immigration. Immigration is one
of the best sources of American talent,
and so we have to be careful not to
give in to those who would cut off
immigration. There are a lot of things
that go into the American economic
competitive advantage, from
education to innovation.
Fundamentally, were the most
innovative economy in the world.
There are very few signs that any of
the other big economies will surpass
the United States in innovation.
INTERVIEWER: What about an
apocalyptic scenario, where being more
innovative economically and
producing goods valued higher than
goods produced elsewhere doesnt
matter? How likely is that?
ELAINE KAMARCK: Isnt that the ba-
sis of economic growth? Why would
growth deteriorate other than in a se-
vere recession? Were not going to be
in a severe recession until 2025, if
thats your time frame. In the short
term, everybody has a problem, but
between now and 2025 there will be
new business cycles. Well likely lead
the world out of the current down-
turn.
INTERVIEWER: Okay, but might one
of these other developing nations
develop an innovation model to
match that of the United States in the
decades ahead?
ELAINE KAMARCK: The big ques-
tion is China, because China certainly
has an entrepreneurial people and cul-
ture. But they still have an overhang
from their communist era. When it
comes to information, theyre still a
closed society. Its hard to imagine a
society being truly innovative when
there are so many restrictions on free-
dom of speech, as there still are in
China. If that would change dramati-
cally, and certainly the Internet is
pushing at it to change, then China
could become very innovative.
The second thing about China is
that they still have significant corrup-
tion problems and they dont have a
rule of law that respects contracts. Its
hard to attract significant investments
from people when investors have
doubts about getting their money
out, or when theres the question of
state nationalization of industry. Its
not a legal structure that fosters inno-
vation. Until that changes in other
parts of the world, people will still
come to the United States to develop
new products.
INTERVIEWER: What about the
theory that the U.S. consumer market
is tapped, that real consumer growth
lies in other countries because of the
amount of debt the United States has
accrued as a nation? Is it overly
pessimistic to think the U.S. is played
out as a consumer market?
ELAINE KAMARCK: Its not overly
pessimistic for the short term. Theres
still a lot of debt to be worked off in
the U.S. economy. However, there is a
very large generation coming up, the
millennial generation. Theyre bigger
than the baby-boomer generation.
Theyre now in high school and in col-
lege. Theyll need to purchase homes
and consumer durables. Theyll have
children. As people work themselves
out of debt, and as a new generation
that doesnt have this debt (because
theyre kids) become adults, you can
see a return to a more normal set of
consumption patterns in the economy.
Hopefully, you wont see a return to
overconsumption. Weve swung dra-
matically from buying everything
with money we didnt have to buying
nothing. Clearly theres someplace in
the middle.
Internationally, the biggest challenge is to deal with
terrorism more as an intelligence matter and less as a
military matter.
INTERVIEWER: The issue of the
amount of debt that is being placed on
the backs of younger generations is of
great concern to me. The average
college graduate carries $19,000 in
school loans and an additional
$12,000 in credit-card debt before they
get out of school. When you add on
future entitlement spending (Social
Security and Medicare) as the baby
boomers retire, the cost begins to sound
significant. Many young people are
leaving school with bleak job prospects
and burdens that the generation before
them didnt have. How would you rate
that as a challenge for the United States
going forward?
ELAINE KAMARCK: When you talk
about debt to future generations in the
U.S. economy as a whole, thats differ-
ent from school loans. People get up-
set about loans, but loans are politi-
cally and practically a different thing. I
think there will be 10 hard years.
Thats how long it will take for the
overspending to move its way out.
Eventually, people will need to buy
cars, refrigerators, and houses again.
That, plus whatever the Obama ad-
ministration does by way of govern-
ment spending, should help younger
people to get jobs when they get out of
college.
INTERVIEWER: You think it will take
10 years to fully move out of this
current downturn?
ELAINE KAMARCK: It depends on
how effective the stimulus package is
and how quickly it succeeds in doing
two things: It has to stop the rise in
unemployment, and it has to get the
credit markets moving again so that
the banks have some trust and can
start lending to people forming new
businesses. Then you start having a
more normal economy. Thats why for
the time being, frankly, spending is a
lot more important than thinking
about deficits. Once the economy gets
moving again, then youll have to con-
front the deficit crisis. If the stimulus
works to really get the economy grow-
ing again, youll grow out of some of
the deficits. The question is, what is an
acceptable level of debt as an aspect of
GDP? Who knows if well ever get
back to the Clinton administration lev-
els? But Certainly by the time were
coming out of this recession, hopefully
the next administration will be poised
to reinvent government and try and
get inefficiencies out of government.
INTERVIEWER: Assuming that we do
absolutely nothing correctly in the
next 15 years, the intelligence report
on 2025 has outlined what looks like a
very bad worst-case scenario. Whats
your worst-case scenario?
E L A I N E K A M A R C K : If we do
everything wrong in the short term,
we face a long period of deflation and
unemployment. It becomes more diffi-
cult to meet our international obliga-
tions and maintain our military force.
Then you begin to see some of the
darker scenarios that we started this
conversation with. But there is also a
feeling that the U.S. economy has
enough flexibility in it that people will
work out of the present situation.
INTERVIEWER: What do you think is
the most important trend to shape
U.S. policy over the next two decades?
ELAINE KAMARCK: Domestically,
the aging population. That will deter-
mine a lot of government spending,
because elderly people vote and are
sophisticated about influencing the
government. The probability of being
able to achieve any significant savings
out of either Medicare or Social Secu-
rity is pretty slim. And so that will be
the most significant domestic problem.
Internationally, the biggest chal-
lenge is to deal with terrorism more as
an intelligence matter and less as a
military matter. The Bush administra-
tion treated the war on terror as if it
were a war, including invading coun-
www.wfs.org THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 19
tries. When we see terrorism stop, its
almost always the result of something
similar to effective police and detec-
tive action rather than military action.
The U.S. military, for all its talents,
isnt well suited to the prevention of
terrorist plots. We need to build better
alliances, and do better international
police and intelligence work to pre-
empt plots. Thats a change from the
way the Bush administration dealt
with the problem.
***
INTERVIEWER: In your television
interviews and your books, you talk a
lot about the wealth transfer to Asia.
According to your Web site, its one of
the key components of your
investment strategy at EuroPacific
Capital. To what extent do you agree
or disagree with some of the scenarios
in the Global Trends 2025 report?
PETER SCHIFF: Rising influence in
Asia? I definitely agree with that,
China more so than Russia. But there
are other countries in the equation, like
India. Japan will also have more clout
in 2025. It wont only be China and
Russia that will see an increase in their
influence and wealth. I think the
United States will see a reduction in its
economic, political, and military power.
Were in serious trouble. Our economy
is a mess, but more worrisome is that
the U.S. government is poised to com-
pletely destroy it. What Obama is seek-
ing to do could ruin the economy.
The economy is a mess because of
bad fiscal and monetary policy in the
preceding years. But what we need in
order to recover is more capitalism,
more free markets. We need more sav-
ings to make credit more available to
businesses that could borrow to build
more factories and start producing
again to repair the industrial base. We
should make repairs to our infrastruc-
ture, but only when we can afford it.
Theres a lot of serious work to be
done. Unfortunately, President Obama
seems intent on building roadblocks
that will just prevent market forces
from correcting the problems in our
economy. By assuming more and
more control and micromanaging
our economy, by making the govern-
ment bigger, our economy is going
to be much less dynamic. The stan-
dard of living is going to fall more
precipitously than would otherwise
be the case.
 Were going to recreate another
great depression, only this one will be
worse than the one the government
created in the 1930s.
INTERVIEWER: How can individuals,
particularly people in the United
States, cope with the trends youve
laid out? Whats an action plan for
them?
PETER SCHIFF: Their action plan is
to get out of U.S. assets entirely. Dont
hold bonds or U.S. currency. Get out
of U.S. real estate. U.S. assets are going
to lose substantial value, especially
relative to assets in other parts of the
world and certain commodities.
What enabled Americans to be so much more successful
than people of other countries was that we were freer.
People need to understand that U.S.
assets are going to be substantially
marked down.
INTERVIEWER: Is this something that
will have an effect geopolitically and
militarily going forward?
PETER SCHIFF: Of course. As the
dollar loses value, it becomes more ex-
pensive to maintain the military to
supply it with food, fuel, and ammu-
nition. Most of U.S. military equip-
ment runs with imported components
and imported parts. If were going to
keep our planes in the air, our tanks
rolling, and our ships steaming, were
going to have to import more expen-
sive foreign components. We have
military bases all around the world.
As the dollar loses value, its more ex-
pensive to maintain those bases.
INTERVIEWER: What about the
argument that the United States will
maintain its dominance because it has
a unique culture of innovation, with
the worlds best universities?
PETER SCHIFF: We dont have a
unique culture of anything. American
citizens arent innately smarter or
harder working than people anywhere
else. Were no better than the Italians,
the French, the Mexicans, or the Chi-
nese. What enabled Americans to be
so much more successful than people
of other countries was that we were
freer. We had a better system of gov-
ernment because we had a constitu-
tion that limited the power of govern-
ment, so we had minimal regulation
20 THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 www.wfs.org
2015 World Future Society All rights reserved.
and minimal taxes relative to the rest
of the worldNow, I think, theres
more entrepreneurial capitalism going
on in places like China than there is in
the United States.
INTERVIEWER: Many developing
nations face tremendous political
uncertainty in the years ahead. To
what degree will they become more
open? To what degree will they
become more democratic? Will there
be social upheavals?
PETER SCHIFF: There will be social
upheavals in the United States. Were
going into a situation with severe eco-
nomic hardship in this country. The
inflation that the U.S. government is
unleashing will lead to spectacular in-
creases in the cost of living. Ulti-
mately, it will lead the Obama admin-
istration to implement price controls
for products, including food and en-
ergy, which will result in food and en-
ergy price wars. When people are cold
and hungry, theres a tendency to
commit crimes, and this will lead to
social unrest. There are a lot of prob-
lems in that respect coming to the
United States. Theres also the chance
the United States government will act
in much more oppressive ways. I
think the U.S. government might start
seizing assets from its citizens, such as
precious metals and foreign stocks.
There could be outright confiscation
and seizure. Moving money out of the
country could be very difficult.
INTERVIEWER: Do you think there is
any chance that the U.S. government
would begin to pursue an open
market strategy?
PETER SCHIFF: I dont see that hap-
pening soon. I see a lot more damage
occurring in our economy before
Obama comes to that revelation. But
hopefully he comes to it in time. The
failure to come to it in time will pro-
duce a hyperinflation. The dollar will
be wiped out completely. That eco-
nomic crisis will be far worse than the
one were dealing with today. The
United States will not be the largest
economy based on GDP well before
2025. It will be China. The United
States will still be behind Japan and it
will no longer be in the top 20 coun-
tries in per capita GDP. Well see a
significant reduction in our stature in
the world.
INTERVIEWER: Do you think China
and Japan will be able to shift from
being export economies toward being
economies that stimulate domestic
consumer spending?
PETER SCHIFF: They will certainly
be consuming a lot more domesti-
cally, particularly China. But Japan
and a lot of countries that are now ex-
porting to the United States will sim-
ply export to other countries. For in-
stance, Japanese exports to China will
pick up significantly. Its certain that
a country thats going to see one of
the most dramatic increases in do-
mestic consumption will be a country
like China.
INTERVIEWER: When does it get
very bad for the United States?
PETER SCHIFF: When the only
buyer left for U.S. debt is the Federal
Reserve itself, thats when hyperinfla-
tion kicks in. Thats when the bond
market plunges and consumer prices
really take off. Thats when were re-
ally up against a serious crisis.
INTERVIEWER: That can happen
anytime between now and
PETER SCHIFF: That can happen any
day. It could happen tomorrow morn-
ing, next year, two years. You just
dont know. The fact is it will happen.
Even Bernie Madoff knew he would
be found out eventually. Ponzi
schemes cant go on forever. Thats
why theyre illegal. If you could make
it work then it wouldnt be illegal.
***
INTERVIEWER: To what extent do
you find these scenarios to be
credible?
DENNIS KUCINICH: I would sug-
gest that such reports are interesting,
but theyre not constructive because
they dont allow for our ability
to change the direction of events. If
the United States does not take
control of its economic destiny, and
if the country keeps spending money
on wars and allowing the acceler-
ated creation of material wealth -
either through the instrumentation
of government of because of the
theft of Wall Street certainly
the United States will be in a precari-
ous position.
 When it comes to the globe, we
need to look at ourselves not as a na-
tion apart from other nations but as
a nation among nations. We need to
come into resonance with the found-
ing principles of this country and its
first motto: E Pluribus Unum (out of
many, one). We are one people, not
just fifty states, but were also one
with a world that is increasingly
i n t e rc o n n e c t e d . W h y n o t r a l l y
around these ideas to save the world
from scarcity, from drought, and
from hunger? We need to do that
now, not in 2025. These warnings
that we get from economists, from
environmentalists, from people who
study global trends are warnings
we should pay attention to not be-
cause they predict the future but be-
cause they give us a snapshot of
whats happening today. We can
change the outcome.
I N T E RV I E W E R : G e t t i n g m o re
specific, what do you see as the most
important trend that will shape U.S.
policy over the course the next two
decades?
DENNIS KUCINICH: The trend to-
ward a more equitable distribution
of wealth. In the last few decades,
the United States has become a mas-
sive machine where all the instru-
ments in government were aimed at
accelerating the creation and accu-
mulation of wealth. The last admin-
istration put in place more than a
trillion dollars in tax cuts that went
to the wealthiest 1% of the U.S. pop-
ulation. Our military spending is
used to accelerate the accumulation
wealth of the nation through war
and huge amounts of defense spend-
ing. Our environmental policies de-
teriorated the quality of our air and
water and appreciated the financial
assets of companies who contami-
nated our environment. Our energy
policies accelerated the accumula-
tion of wealth by turning over our
energy supply to the oil companies.
These companies [were able to] de-
termine the kinds of energy we had.
Weve allowed insurance companies
to run our health-care systems. One
hundred million people in the United
States are either underinsured or unin-
sured. Massive displacements are go-
ing on economically because people
cant afford health care. You can look
at every system of government over
the last few decades and you can see
how special interests have allowed
the acceleration of the creation of
wealth. Were living with the culmi-
nation of lack of regulation. This lack
resulted in fraud. We need to have
a system that causes a more equita-
ble distribution.
INTERVIEWER: Global collaboration
seems to be one of your focal points.
What sort of future opportunities do
you imagine for the United States to
collaborate with the developing
world to improve the future?
When it comes to the globe, we need to look at ourselves
not as a nation apart from other nations but as a nation
among nations.
DENNIS KUCINICH: We have an op-
portunity to stop looking at it as a
world that needs to be developed.
These distinctions need to be chal-
lenged. Theres a lot about the de-
veloped world that I dont find par-
ticularly acceptable, such as the
geography of nowhere. This is where
everything looks alike, where local
cultures are obliterated by concrete.
This is an aspect of the so-called de-
veloped world. We need to come
into rhythm with the natural world.
We shouldnt be talking about the
developing world. We should be
talking about the natural world.
INTERVIEWER: Do you envision a
way to achieve this equilibrium you
talk about and maintain the supply-
side economic system?
DENNIS KUCINICH: We cant sus-
tain the system we have in place. We
already know that. Its predatory. Its
broken down why should we re-
vive it?
INTERVIEWER: Some might argue
that supply-side economics over the
last two decades has led to an
increase in quality of life, especially
parts of the world outside of the
United States. On that note, one of
the key issues in the Global Trends
report is how the shift to Western
dietary habits in many parts of the
world, particularly in Asia, is one of
the primary drivers putting strain on
freshwater, because as people switch
to eating more meat they deplete
www.wfs.org THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 21
groundwater. I think this speaks to
your broader point: How do you
convince other people not to follow
the growth path that the United
States has established?
DENNIS KUCINICH: I think that
most of the rest of the world sees
that supply-side economics is a fail-
ure. If we want to restore our credi-
bility with the people of other na-
tions, we need to reject the canards
of the past and start talking about
human values that have proven to be
sustainable. We need to set ourselves
on a path where there are jobs for all,
housing for all, education for all,
health care for all, retirement secu-
rity, clean water, clean air, a sustain-
able food supply, and peace. This is
not a pipe dream. All of this is
achievable. We have it within our
reach, but we have to change our in-
stitutions so that [those] institutions
can respond and evolve with human
potential.
INTERVIEWER: Which institutions
in particular?
DENNIS KUCINICH: Every institu-
tion. Jefferson talked about the fact
that institutions come from the mind
of man and evolve with the mind of
man. They have to change. They are
our products. They didnt make us,
we made them.
INTERVIEWER: Why do you think
its important for individuals to take
their future seriously?
DENNIS KUCINICH: I think its im-
portant for individuals to live joy-
ously. I think we need to live with-
out fear of the future and enjoy the
moment, live it to the utmost, and
live it with great heart, love, and
courage. Thats what I think we
should do. If you do that, the future
will take care of itself.
This article is a slightly edited version
of one that originally appeared in the
July-August 2009 issue of The Futurist.
looking forward

We wanted to take a few pages, featuring two essays, to reflect

on how the study of the future relates to the way we live. The
first essay by anthropologist Helen Fisher discusses how trends
in interpersonal relationships will affect many traditions,
institutions, and policies. The second essay by psychologist
Philip Zimbardo takes a look forward at how formal research into
heroism by ordinar y people faced with extraordinar y
circumstances can have wider benefits for society as a whole.
Enjoy. MD

How Trends in Interpersonal Relationships Will Disrupt

our Social and Business Traditions
By HELEN FISHER

M
arriage has changed more in the past 100 years
than it has in the past 10,000, and it could
change more in the next 20 years than in the
last 100. We are rapidly shedding traditions that
emerged with the Agricultural Revolution and return-
ing to historical patterns of sex, romance, and attach-
ment that evolved on the grasslands of Africa millions
of years ago.
Beliefs in virginity at marriage, arranged marriages,
the concept that men should be the sole family bread-
winners, the credo that a womans place is in the
home, the double standard for adultery, and the con-
cepts of honor thy husband and until death do us
part are vanishing. Hooking up (the refreshed term clues to life among our forebears; the dead do speak. A
for a one-night stand) is becoming commonplace,
along with living together, bearing children out of
wedlock, women-headed households, interracial mar-
riages, homosexual weddings, commuter marriages
between individuals who live apart, childless mar-
riages, betrothals between older women and younger
men, and small families.
Our concept of infidelity is also changing. Some
married couples agree to have brief sexual encounters
when they travel separately; others sustain long-term
adulterous relationships with the approval of a spouse.
Even our concept of divorce is shifting. Divorce used
to be considered a sign of failure; today it is often
deemed the first step toward true happiness.
These trends arent new. Anthropologists have many
million years ago, children were most likely experi-
menting with sex and love by age six. Teens lived to-

22 THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 www.wfs.org

2015 World Future Society All rights reserved.

gether in relationships known as trial marriages. Men
and women chose their partners for themselves. Many
were unfaithful, a propensity common in all 42 extant
cultures I have examined. When our forebears found
themselves in an unhappy partnership, these ancients
walked out. A million years ago, anthropologists suspect,
most men and women had two or three long-term part-
ners across their lifetimes. All these primordial habits are
returning.
But the most profound trend is the rise of what sociolo-
gists call the companionate, symmetrical, or peer mar-
riage: marriage between equals. Women in much of the
world are regaining the economic power they enjoyed for
millennia. Ancestral women left camp almost daily to
gather fruits, nuts, and vegetables, returning with 60% to
80% of the evening meal. In the hunting and gathering
societies of our past, women worked outside the home;
the double-income family was the rule, and women were
just as economically, sexually, and socially powerful as
men. Today, we are returning to this lifeway, leaving in
the dustbin of history the traditional, male-headed, patri-
archal family - the bastion of agrarian society.
This massive change will challenge many of our social
traditions, institutions, and policies during the next 15
years. Perhaps we will see wedding licenses with an ex-
piration date. Companies may have to reconsider how
they distribute pension benefits. Words like marriage,
family, adultery, and divorce are likely to take on a vari-
ety of meanings. We may invent new kinship terms. Ma-
triliny may become common as more children trace their
descent through their mother.
Emergent industries are booming as they take advan-
tage of our tendencies to marry later, then divorce and re-
marry. These include Internet dating services, marital me-
diators, artists who airbrush faces out of family albums,
divorce support groups, couples therapists, and self-im-
provement books. As behavioral geneticists begin to pin-
point the biology of such seemingly amorphous traits as
curiosity, cautiousness, political orientation, and religios-
ity, the rich may soon create designer babies.
For every trend there is a countertrend, of course. Reli-
gious traditions are impeding the rise of women in some
societies. In countries where there are far more men than
women, due to female infanticide, women are likely to
become coveted and cloistered. An aging world popula-
tion may cling to outmoded social values, and popula-
tion surges and declines will affect our attitudes to-
ward family life.
CREDIT: SHUTTERSTOCK
Adding to this mix will be everything we are learn-
ing about the biology of relationships. We now know
that kissing a long-term partner reduces cortisol, the
stress hormone. Certain genes in the vasopressin sys-
tem predispose men to make less-stable partnerships.
My colleagues and I have discovered that the feeling of
romantic love is associated with the brains dopamine
systemthe system for wanting. Moreover, we have
found that romantic rejection activates brain regions
associated with profound addiction. Scientists even
know some of the payoffs of hooking up. Casual sex
can trigger the brain systems for romantic love and/or
feelings of deep attachment.
Emergent industries are booming
as they take advantage of our
tendencies to marry later, then
divorce and remarry.
What will we do with these data? One forward-
thinking company has bottled what our forebears
would have called love magic. They sell Liquid
Trust, a perfume that contains oxytocin, the natural
brain chemical that, when sniffed, triggers feelings of
trust and attachment.
We are living in a sea of social and technological
currents that are likely to reshape our family lives.
But much will remain the same. To bond is human.
The drives to fall in love and form an attachment to a
mate are deeply embedded in the human brain. To-
day, 84% of Americans wed by age 40, and with the
expansion of the roles of both women and men, new
medical aids to sex and romance, our longer life
spans, and the growing social acceptance of alterna-
tive ways to bond, I believe we now have the time
and tools to make more-fulfilling partnerships than at
any time in human evolution.
The time to love is now.
This article is a slightly edited version of one that originally
appeared in the November-December 2010 issue of
The Futurist.
www.wfs.org THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 23
looking forward
Transforming Society by Teaching Everyday People
the Characteristics of a Modern Hero
W
hat is a hero? I argue that a hero is someone
who possesses and displays certain heroic attri-
butes such as integrity, compassion, and moral
courage, heightened by an understanding of the power
of situational forces, an enhanced social awareness, and
an abiding commitment to social action.
Heroism is a social concept, and like any social con-
cept it can be explained, taught, and modeled through
education and practice. I believe that heroism is com-
mon, a universal attribute of human nature and not ex-
clusive to a few special individuals. The heroic act is
etraordinary; the heroic actor is an ordinary person - un-
til he or she becomes a heroic special individual. We
may all be called upon to act heroically at some time,
when opportunity arises. We would do well, as a society
and as a civilization, to conceive of heroism as some-
thing within the range of possibilities for every person.
Research into the component
attributes of heroism and their
practical application can have far-
reaching benefits for society.
But rarely do we hear about ordinary men and
women who have, by circumstance or fate, done some-
thing extraordinary for a greater cause or sacrificed on
behalf of fellow human beings. Todays generation, per-
haps more than any preceding one, has grown up with-
out a distinct vision of what constitutes heroism, or,
worse, has grown up with a flawed vision of the hero as
sports figure, rock star, gang leader, or fantastic super
hero. This is why I formed the Heroic Imagination Proj-
ect (heroicimagination.org), or HIP, which seeks to en-
courage and empower individuals to develop the per-
sonal attributes that lead them to take heroic action
during crucial moments in their lives, on behalf of oth-
ers, for a moral cause, and without expectation of gain.
HIP is committed to realizing this goal in three ways.
First, we conduct and support new research that will ex-
pand societys understanding of heroic behavior. Sec-
ond, we have created new educational programs in
24 THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 www.wfs.org
2015 World Future Society All rights reserved.
By PHILIP ZIMBARDO
schools and on the Web that coach and mentor people in
how to resist negative social influences, while also inspir-
ing them to become wise and effective heroes. Finally, we
have created public engagement programs that involve
people everywhere to take our heroic pledge and to sign
on to one of our many emerging programs.
Research on Heroism
One of the most fundamental and unique aspects of our
mission is its focus on encouraging new empirical
research on the nature and dynamics of heroism. There is
a dearth of information on this idea, at least partly due to
the changing definition of heroism over the last 30 years,
and the earlier focus in psychology on the dark side of
human nature. To build this new body of research, we are
partnering with major universities and will sponsor
promising doctoral candidates who devote their research
to questions around this issue of heroic behavior.
Research into the component attributes of heroism
(ethical behavior, leadership, courage) and their practi-
cal application (defiance of unjust authority, whistle
blowing, facing physical danger) can have far-reaching
benefits for society. We need to better understand the
neurological and psychological basis of such phenom-
ena as action versus passivity at the decisive moment.
The components of our research initiative include
Web-based surveys of self-selected individuals,
analysis of a program of senior volunteers, and labora-
tory studies of the personal, social, and neurological
roots of heroic behaviors.
Implementation of Our Findings
Everyday heroism is the highest form of civic virtue. It
transforms the personal virtue of compassion into
meaningful social action. To that end, we will work to
instill in all people, particularly in young people, the
self-confidence and the ability to readily perform deeds
that improve the lives of other individuals and society
as a whole. We believe it begins by adopting, and inter-
nalizing, the mind-set of a heroic imagination - I can be
a hero when the opportunity arises.
We have developed specific program modules for
scholastic, non-profit, and academic audiences, with one
for corporate audiences forthcoming. Our initial pro-
gram was launched in middle and high schools and
provides young people with tools to encourage heroic
self-identification. The aim is to fortify their moral
framework and coach them to act beyond their comfort
zonebut wisely so.
Why Heroism?
This exploration into heroism was spurred by recent
research that shows how otherwise exemplary individu-
als can be easily persuaded, when their social frame-
work is skewed or altered, to perform acts that go
against conscience, and behave in ways they would or-
dinarily find despicable. My Stanford Prison Experi-
ment (1971) reflected such an outcome, and my findings
have been frequently validated since, including the re-
cent actions of American military police guards at Abu
Ghraib prison in Iraq in 2004.
I testified during the trial of one of the U.S. guards ac-
cused of mistreating prisoners in that incident. My mes-
sage was this: Its imperative for our society to acknowl-
edge how situational forces can corrupt even good
people into becoming perpetrators of evil. It is essential
that all of us learn to recognize the situational and sys-
temic determinants of antisocial behaviors. Whats more,
I argue, we must actively seek to change this paradigm
by encouraging and empowering individuals to make
the difficult but moral decisionthe decisive heroic
choice - when faced with challenging circumstances.
By redefining these ideas for contemporary audi-
ences, we can popularize and energize the concept of
everyday heroism around the world. In doing so, HIP
hopes to be the catalyst for individuals to transform
their passivity and reluctance to come to the aid of those
in need into the positive social action heroism. Ideally,
HIP will become a social movement that sows the seeds
of heroism everywhere.
This article is a slightly edited version of one that originally
appeared in the November-December 2010 issue of
The Futurist.
CREDIT: SHUTTERSTOCK
www.wfs.org THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 25
final word

By BRENDA COOPER

How Science Fiction

Makes Better Futurists
An Interview with Tobias Buckell, Science Fiction Writer
Im very lucky to count Tobias Buckell
among my friends. I first met Toby a
decade ago at an intimate writing retreat
we were both invited to. Hes smart,
global, and courageous, a very fine
writer and speaker, and a perfect subject
for a short interview about the value
of science fiction authors to the field
of futurism studies. Theres even a
summer reading list enjoy!

BRENDA COOPER: Hi Toby. BRENDA COOPER: I found myself as interested in

Youve set Arctic Rising, Hurri- your predictions for social change as I was in the cli-
cane Fever, and other work in a mate science. Can you describe a few things that you
near future that has been seri- consider likely scenarios from your recent work?
o u s l y a l t e re d b y c l i m a t e TOBIAS BUCKELL: There are a lot of undercurrents
change. How did you decide and assumptions we make about the nature of work,
what would change? corporate structures, and who should benefit from that
TOBIAS BUCKELL: I was very which are fairly unique to the last fifty years. Quarterly-
lucky in that a lot of the based shareholder capitalism doesnt seem particularly
Tobias research had already been sustainable, and Im fascinated by the small bits of
Buckell done for me. I started reading green shoots you see in the areas of employee-owned
documents related to the IPCC1 businesses, or more businesses that hand employees a
reports and was reading stuff coming out from Task cut for their hard work.
Force Climate Change2. Add into that the legal challenges On the other hand, I do think the increased nature of
being faced by Pacific Islanders who were figuring out contract work will continue. While I used the ideas of
how to plan for the dissolution of their homes, and things freelance spies in Arctic Rising as an extreme, its not
began to click into place for me. that far out of hand. And I imagine well see more and
Unlike most science fiction that I write, I actually more of society having to adapt to the fact that most of
didnt have to make many decisions in the background the workforce will be temporary. Were already seeing
for these books in terms of making up worlds; I just some services being built to handle that, from changes
kept encountering challenges people were already in U.S. healthcare to companies that create banking
facing or trying to plan to face. Fictionalizing them accounts specifically designed to buffer freelance cash to
was the trick, not finding them. even out the flow.

26 THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 www.wfs.org

2015 World Future Society All rights reserved.
 I believe the best science fiction can be
unfettered and give us a thirty thousand foot
view one that can inspire people to make
something a reality.
B R E N DA C O O P E R : In
what ways do you think
that working futurists
might learn from reading
science fiction?
TOBIAS BUCKELL: Wil-
liam Gibson once pointed
out that when he came up
with many of the concepts
he was famous for, the
experts told him there
wasnt enough bandwidth
to make it work. Had he
remained constrained by
the on-the-ground reality
and not used his imagina-
tion, he wouldnt have had
nearly the influence he did.
Likewise, I believe the
best science fiction can be
unfettered and give us a
thirty thousand foot view
one that can inspire people
CREDIT: SHUTTERSTOCK to make something a real-
ity. When we focus on the
function and use, it can point out something that is
needed that might be currently beyond our grasp. I am
thinking of tricorders from Star Trek; the cyberspace of
William Gibson; visions of societies arranged differ-
ently. By jolting ourselves out into different paradigms
we exercise that great muscle: imagination.
sions trading program to cut way back on it. It is the
same with the ozone layer, which is in much better
shape. But now those tools are off the table due culture
wars, not because we lack the ability to tackle it.
BRENDA COOPER: What makes you the most hopeful?
TOBIAS BUCKELL: The rapid technological growth
rate of solar and battery efficiencies.
BRENDA COOPER: The World Future Conference this
year is about making the future. While that can obvi-
ously refer to 3D and 4D printing, in what other ways
are we making the future right now? How might we go
about making the future?
TOBIAS BUCKELL: Remaking roads. Other than a few
places in Europe we are oriented toward cars, which are
an amazing technology that allow a great deal of inde-
pendence. But with paint and planters we can redesign
for humans fairly effectively. We still put a great deal of
our budgets into new roads and are struggling to main-
tain roads. But network simulations of traffic show that
more roads dont equal less traffic. Im hopeful to see
more design around human beings, rather than our
tools. And I say that as someone who owned a sports
car and loved it.

BRENDA COOPER: Are there particular authors that

you would recommend?
TOBIAS BUCKELL: I think futurists should be reading
Ramez Naam, Ken Lius short science fiction,
Madeline Ashby, Cory Doctorow, Paolo Bacigalupi,
Charles Stross (in particular his Halting State and Rule
34 novels), Karl Schroeder (check out Lady of Mazes for
a novel, or any of his short fiction), Afterparty by Daryl
Gregory, The Diamond Age by Neal Stephenson thats
a good start!

BRENDA COOPER: What frightens you?

TOBIAS BUCKELL: Climate change. Its something 1
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
hard to recover from, and it has become such a politi- 2
Task Force Climate Change is a U.S. Navy study group,
cal leverage point. Politicians were able to use an emis-
first stood up in 2009.

www.wfs.org THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 27

CONTRIBUTORS
GINA BIANCHINI is an entrepreneur and
investor. She is the founder of Mightybell, a
specialized professional network site, and an
Entrepreneur-in-Residence at venture capital firm
Andreessen Horowitz. Bianchini was previously the
co-founder and CEO of Ning, the co-founder and
president of Harmonic Communications, and prior
to that held positions at CKS Group and Goldman
Sachs & Co.
TOBIAS S. BUCKELL is an award-winning
science fiction author and futurist. His accolades
include nominations for the Nebula and Prometheus
awards for his novel Ragamuffin, and the Campbell
Award for Best New Science Fiction Writer (Finalist).
His latest book is the technothriller Hurricane Fever
(Tor Books, 2014).
BRENDA COOPER is a technologist, futurist,
and science fiction author. She is currently the chief
information officer of Kirkland, Washington. She is
also the co-creator of Futurist.com, an introductory-
to-intermediate level website about futurism. She
has been an author for 26 years, with numerous
published novels and short stories to her credit.
Her most recent book is Edge of Darkness (The
Glittering Edge) (Pyr, 2015).
DR. HELEN FISHER is an anthropologist
who studies gender differences and the evolution
of human emotions, best known as an expert on
romantic love. She is the author of numerous
books including the highly regarded Why We
Love: The Nature and Chemistry of Romantic
Love (Holt, 2004). She is also the chief scientific
advisor to Chemistry.com and a visiting research
associate in the Department of Anthropology at
Rutgers University.
28 THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 www.wfs.org
DR. DANIEL E. DAN GEER is a computer
security analyst and risk management specialist. He
is currently the chief information security officer for
In-Q-Tel, a not-for-profit venture capital firm investing
in high-tech companies for the purpose of keeping
U.S. intelligence agencies equipped with the latest
technologies. He has earned many accomplishments
and accolades in the computer science community,
including the 2011 USENIX Lifetime Achievement
Award (The Flame), which recognizes singular
contributions to the UNIX community of both
intellectual achievement and service that are not
recognized in any other forum.
DR. NEWTON LEROY NEWT GINGRICH
is most recognized as the former Speaker of the
United States House of Representatives (1995-1999)
and former candidate for the 2012 Republican Party
presidential nomination. Prior to serving in the U.S.
House of Representatives beginning in 1979, he
was a history professor at West Georgia College.
Post-speakership, he has been involved in many
activities that include founding the Center for Health
Transformation, serving on the U.S. Commission
on National Security/21st Century, and serving as a
fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the
Hoover Institution. He has also authored many non-
fiction and fictional alternate history books, and he is
a prolific book reviewer.
DR. ELAINE C. KAMARCK has been a
lecturer in public policy at Harvards John F. Kennedy
School of Government since 1997, after a career
in politics and government. She is also a senior
fellow in the Governance Studies program at the
Brookings Institution. At the Kennedy School she
served as Director of Visions of Governance for
the Twenty-First Century and as Faculty Advisor to
the Innovations in American Government Awards
Program. At Brookings she is the founding director
of the Center for Effective Public Management. She
previously served in the White House from 1993 to
1997, where she created and managed the Clinton
administrations National Performance Review, also
known colloquially as reinventing government. She
is the author most recently of How Change Happens
Or Doesnt: The Politics of U.S. Public Policy (Lynne
Rienner, 2013).
DENNIS KUCINICH is a former member of the
U.S. House of Representatives, where he served
the state of Ohio from 1997-2013. He has twice
(2004, 2008) been a candidate for the Democratic
nomination for President of the United States. Prior
to joining Congress, he served as the Mayor of
Cleveland, Ohio (the youngest in the citys history).
Long a progressive proponent of environmental
initiatives, sustainability practices, and human rights
issues, he was the 2003 recipient of the Gandhi
Peace Award of the Religious Society of Friends-
affiliated organization Promoting Enduring Peace.
PETER SCHIFF is an economist, financier,
radio talk show host, and author. He is the chief
global strategist and CEO of Euro Pacific Capital,
a financial broker/dealer in Connecticut, and host
of The Peter Schiff Show. In 2008, he served as an
economic advisor to Ron Pauls campaign for the
Republican nomination for President of the United
States. He has appeared as a guest on many
news programs and is frequently quoted in major
publications. He is the author of a half dozen books,
including the best-selling Crash Proof 2.0: How to
Profit from the Economic Collapse (Wiley, 2011).
PATRICK TUCKER is currently the technology
editor for Defense One. He was previously deputy
editor of The Futurist, where over nine years he
bylined more than 180 articles. His other writing,
particularly about emerging technologies, has
appeared in many other publications including Slate,
MIT Technology Review, and Utne Reader. He is
the author of well received The Naked Future: What
Happens in a World That Anticipates Your Every
Move? (Current, 2014).
DR. AMY ZALMAN is the CEO and president
of the World Future Society, the worlds first and
largest membership organization for futurists, the
advancement of foresight, and advocacy on behalf
of future-critical issues.She is also the founder
of Strategic Narrative, a digital clearinghouse for
resources and expertise that helps governments
and private sector clients influence outcomes and
shape behaviors using the principles of storytelling
and narrative. Her writing and public speaking has
been featured in many forums around the world.
She is also a member of the board of the Council for
Emerging National Security Affairs. Immediately prior
to joining WFS, she held the title of Department of
Defense Chair of Information Integration at the U.S.
National War College.
DR. PHILIP ZIMBARDO is a professor
(emeritus) in the Department of Psychology at
Stanford University, where he has worked since
1968. Prior to that he held academic positions at
Yale University, New York University, and Columbia
University. His research career has focused on topics
that include time perspective, shyness, terrorism,
madness, and evil. He is perhaps best known for his
1971 Stanford Prison Experiment, an investigation
into the causes of conflict between guards and
prisoners. More recently, he has been the author of
books that include The Lucifer Effect: Understanding
How Good People Turn Evil (Random House, 2007),
and has founded the Heroic Imagination Project, a
non-profit dedicated to promoting heroism in everyday
life. Among many accolades, he received the 2012
American Psychological Association Gold Medal for
Lifetime Achievement in the Science of Psychology.
www.wfs.org THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 29
S P E C I A L A D V E R T I S I N G
CONSULTANTS AND SERVICES
Karl Albrecht International
San Diego, CA U.S.A.
Phone: 858-836-1500
E-mail: futures@KarlAlbrecht.com
Web: KarlAlbrecht.com
Contact: Dr. Karl Albrecht
Planning a conference? Include a
Futures Update keynote by renowned futurist
Dr. Karl Albrecht.
Alsek Research Economic Futures
7650 S. McClintoch Dr., #103-233
Tempe, AZ 85284
Phone: 480-225-2507
E-mail: jfoltz@alsekresearch.com
Web: www.alsekresearch.com
Contact: Joan Foltz
Keynotes, workshops, and anticipatory
analysis of global markets, investing, and
business structures. Author of Market
Whipped: And Not By Choice.
Alternative Futures Associates
2331 Mill Rd., Suite 100, Alexandria, VA
22314-3134
Phone: 703-684-5880 Fax: 703-684-0640
E-mail: futurist@altfutures.com
Web: www.altfutures.com
Contact: Clement Bezold, Jonathan Peck
Vision and scenario development, strategic
planning, trend analysis, workshop design and
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Atlas Safety & Security Design, Inc.
770 Palm Bay Ln., Suite 4-I, Miami, FL 33138
Phone: 305-756-5027 Fax: 305-754-1658
E-mail: ratlas@ix.netcom.com
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Contact: Dr. Randall Atlas, AIA, CPP
Pioneers in crime prevention through
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Aviv Consulting
15363 NE 201st St.Woodinville, WA 98072
Phone: 425-415-6155
E-mail: avivconsulting@gmail.com
Web: www.avivconsulting.com
Contact: Aviv Shahar
Helping leaders and teams develop their vision
and design the future. Innovation, strategy,
coaching, consulting, retreats.
30 THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 www.wfs.org
S E C T I O N
Center for Strategic Futurist Thinking
46 B/4 Jerusalem St., Kfar Saba, Israel 44369
Phone: 972-54-558-7940 Fax: 972-9-766965
Web: www.futurist-thinking.co.il
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Strategic futurism: Getting from Here to There
(Keynote speaker) Jewish, Mid-East and
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Christensen Associates, Inc.
8168 Manitoba St., No. 2, Playa Del Ray, CA
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Avoid devastating surprises! Exploit ANY
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Common Sense Medicine
812 W. 8th St., Suite 2A, Plainview, TX 79072
Phone: 806-291-0700 Fax: 806-293-8229
E-mail: drjonzdo@yahoo.com
Web: www.commonsensemedicine.org
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M.Ed., LPC
Adaptations today are the future. The authors
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CREO Strategic Solutions
PO Box 840, Kittery, ME 03904
Phone: 415-450-1515
Contact: Kevin Fickenscher, MD
Email: drkevin@creostrategicsolutions.com
Healthcare is undergoing dramatic change
that extends far beyond the financing of
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the future is critical. Keynotes, workshops,
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services and consulting.
de Bono For Business
248 W. Loraine St., #103, Glendale, CA 91202
Phone: 818-507-6055
E-mail: info@LyndaCurtin.com
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Contact: Lynda Curtin, the Opportunity Thinker
Lift your thinking. Learn breakthrough futurist
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Workshops. Keynotes. Facilitation.
FutureManagement Group AG
Wallufer Strasse 3a, Eltville, Germany D-65343
Phone: 49-6123-7 55 53
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Use the Eltville Model of FutureManagement
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Future Problem Solving Program
International, Inc.
2015 Grant Pl.,Melbourne, FL 32901
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E-mail: mail@fpspi.org
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Contact: Marianne Solomon, Executive D irector
FPSPI is an established educational program
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The Futures Corporation
1109 Main St., Ste. 299A, Boise, ID 83702
Phone: 208-345-5995 Fax:208-345-6083
E-mail: JLuthy@futurescorp.com
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Strategic thinking/planning; evolving leadership;
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The Future Hunters: Weiner,
Edrich, Brown
200 E. 33rd St., Suite 9I, New York, NY 10016
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Contact: Edie Weiner
For over two decades, the pioneers in detecting
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The Futures Lab
2130 Goodrich Ave., Austin, TX 78704
Phone: 512-468-4505
E-mail: dwoodgate@futures-lab.com
Web: www.futures-lab.com
Contact: Derek Woodgate
International futures-based consultancy
specializing in consumer, business futures.
Leaders in the future potential business.
Futurist Speaker Thomas Frey
DaVinci Institute, 511 E South Boulder Road,
Louisville, CO 80027
Phone: 303-666-4133
E-mail: deb@davinciinstitute.com
Web: www.futuristspeaker.com
Contact: Debra Frey
Thomas Frey is Googles top-rated futurist
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the Future the book that changes
everything.Speaking topics: future of
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The Greenway Group
25 Technology Pkwy. South, Suite 101,
Norcross, GA 30092
Phone: 678-879-0929 Fax: 678-879-0930
E-mail: jcramer@di.net
Web: www.greenway.us
Contact: James Cramer, chairman
Strategic change, trends, forecasts, research.
Architecture and design technology. Journals:
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H.G. Hudson and Associates
34 Warren Dr., Newport News, VA 23608
Phone: 757-874-5414
E-mail: HUDSON2059@msn.com
Contact: Henry G. Hudson, president
and CEO
Management consulting help in advanced
administrative services, operations, systems,
methods, procedures, policies, strategy,
and management.
Innovation Focus Inc.
111 E. Chestnut St., Lancaster PA 17602-2703
Phone: 717-394-2500
Web: www.innovationfocus.com
Contacts: Christopher W. Miller, Ph.D.;
Anne Orban, M.Ed.
Innovation Focus is an internationally
recognized consulting firm that brings
innovation to all stages of product life cycle
management and provides proven processes
for deep customer understanding and
meaningful innovation. Clients include:
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Myers Squibb.
Institute for Alternative Futures
2331 Mill Rd., Suite 100, Alexandria, VA
22314-3134
Phone: 703-684-5880 Fax: 703-684-0640
E-mail: futurist@altfutures.com
Web: www.altfutures.com
Contacts: Clement Bezold, Jonathan Peck
Uses research reports, workshops, scenarios,
and visioning to help organizations
understand future possibilities and create
their preferred future.
Institute for Global Futures
2084 Union St.,San Francisco, CA 94123
Phone: 415-563-0720Fax: 415-563-0219
E-mail: info@globalfuturist.com
Web: www.GlobalFuturist.com
Contact: Dr. James Canton
Futures based keynotes, consulting and
research for any vertical industry by leading
futurist James Canton.
Institute for Participatory Management
and Planning
P.O. Box 1937, Monterey, CA 93942-1937
Phone: 831-373-4292 Fax: 831-373-0760
E-mail: ipmp@aol.com
Web: www.ipmp-bleiker.com
Contacts: Annemarie Bleiker, Hans Bleiker,
Jennifer Bleiker
We offer a Leadership Boot-Camp for guiding
complex problem-solving and decision-making
efforts.
KAIROS Future AB
P.O. Box 804, S-10136 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: (46 8) 545 225 00
Fax: (46 8) 545 225 01
E-mail: info@kairosfuture.se
Web: www.kairosfuture.se
Contacts: Mats Lindgren, Anna Kiefer
Values, work, technology, marketing. Methods:
scenarios, studies, lectures, seminars,
consulting. Public and private sectors.
Leading Futurists LLC
4420 49th St., NW, Washington, DC 20016
Phone: 202-271-0444
E-mail: jbmahaffie@starpower.net
Web: www.leadingfuturists.biz
Contacts: John B. Mahaffie, Jennifer Jarratt
Futures consulting, workshops, scenarios,
research, keynote talks to help organizations
More consultants and services, next page
www.wfs.org THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 31
iscover new opportunities and challenges.
d
Members, Association of Professional Futurists.
MG Rush Performance Learning
1301 W. 22nd St., Suite 603, Oak Brook, IL 60523
Phone: 630-954-5880 Fax: 630-954-5889
E-mail: futurist@mgrush.com
Contacts: Terrence Metz, 630-954-5882;
Kevin Booth, 630-954-5884
Facilitation of, and facilitator training for:
scenario planning, strategy development,
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training of facilitative leadership.
Minkin Affiliates
135 Riviera Dr., #305, Los Gatos, CA 95032
Phone: 408-402-3020
E-mail: barryminkin@earthlink.net
Web: minkinaffiliates.com
Contact: Barry Minkin
Keynote speaker, bestselling author, global
management consultant, three decades linking
emerging trends to consumer and market strategy.
Next Consulting
104 Timber Ridge Rd., State College, PA 16801
Phone: 814-237-2575 Fax: 814-863-4257
E-mail: g7g@psu.edu
Web: nextconsulting.us
Contact: Geoffrey Godbey, Ph.D.
Repositioning leisure/tourism organizations for
the near future. Speeches, ideation,
imagineering. Client list on request.
Jim Pinto Technology Futurist
2805 Ocean St. #2, Carlsbad, CA 92008
Phone: 858-353-5467
E-mail: jim@jimpinto.com
Web: www.JimPinto.com
Contact: Jim Pinto
Speaker and consultant: technology futures,
industrial automation, global business trends,
Internet business relationships.
Pinyon Partners LLC
140 Little Falls St., Suite 210, Falls Church, VA
22046
Phone: 703-651-0359
E-mail: pshoemaker@pinyonpartners.com
Web: www.pinyonpartners.com
Contacts: Peter B.G. Shoemaker; Dan
Garretson, Ph.D.
consultants and services
Quantitative and qualitative. Art and Science.
However you want to characterize it, our
distinctive combination of the hard-nosed and
the deeply intuitive is perfectly suited for those
navigating over the horizon. Expansive
explorations of whats next; engaging
engagements with change; consultations,
workshops, research, and talks aimed at
creating future-oriented clarity, purpose, insight,
and confidence. Member, Association of
Professional Futurists.
Qi Systems
35 Seacoast Terr., Apt. 6P, Brooklyn, NY 11235
Phone: 718-769-9655
E-mail:QiSys@msn.com
Web: www.qisystems.org
Contact: Ronn Parker, Ph.D.
Spectrum Counseling: conflict resolution,
conscious evolution, martial arts,
meditation methods, mindbody strategies,
transformational learning.
David Pearce Snyder, Consulting
Futurist
The Snyder Family Enterprise, 8628 Garfield
St., Bethesda, MD 20817-6704
Phone: 301-530-5807 Fax: 301-530-1028
E-mail: david@the-futurist.com
Web: www.the-futurist.com
Contact: Sue Snyder
High-impact motivating presentations.
Strategic assessments, socio-technologic
forecasts/scenarios. Keynote addresses,
strategic briefings, workshops, surveys.
Strategic Futures
Strategic Futures Consulting Group, Inc.
113 South Washington St., Alexandria, VA 22314
Phone: 703-836-8383 Fax: 703-836-9192
E-mail: info@strategicfutures.com
Web: www.strategicfutures.com
Contact: Ron Gunn or Jennifer Thompson
Strategic planning, succession planning
including mentoring, executive coaching,
organizational change facilitation, and matrix
management assistance.
SynOvation Solutions
455 Hazelwood Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94127
Phone: 415-298-3008
E-mail: info@synovationsolutions.com
Web: www.synovationsolutions.com
32 THE FUTURIST Summer 2015 www.wfs.org
Contacts: Bruce L. Tow, David A. Gilliam
Future-is-now resources to help you achieve key
and mission-critical breakthroughs or creatively
evolve your business to meet future challenges.
Synthesys Strategic Consulting Ltd.
Belsize Park, London NW3 UK
Phone: 44-207-449-2903 Fax: 44-870-136-5560
E-mail: www.hardintibbs.com
Web: www.synthstrat.com
Contact: Hardin Tibbs, CEO
Synthesys specializes in using futures research
to develop innovative strategies. Based in London
UK, with international experience in both the
public and private sectors, across many different
industries. Projects include horizon scanning,
strategic sense-making, scenarios, vision
building, assumption testing, and strategy
formulation, either as expert input or by co-
production directly with leadership teams.
TechCast Global, Inc.
3342 Maud St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20016
Phone: 202-994-5975
E-mail: info@techcastglobal.com
Web: www.techcastglobal.org
Contact: William E. Halal, president, TechCast
Global Inc.
TechCast Global is an online research project
that pools the knowledge of 100 experts
worldwide to forecast breakthroughs in all fields
of science and technology. Results are updated
in real time and distributed to corporations,
governments, and other subscribers to aid in
their strategic planning. The project has been
featured in The Washington Post, Newsweek,
The Futurist, and various journals. The National
Academies consider TechCast Global among
the best systems available, and Google ranks it
No. 2 or 3 out of 45 million hits. TechCast Global
also gives presentations, conducts customized
studies, and performs most types of consulting
related to technology and strategic change.
Town and Gown Relations
Kemp Consulting, LLC
P. O. Box 342, Meriden, CT 06450-0342
Phone: 203-686-0281
E-mail: rlkbsr@snet.net
Web (consulting): www.rogerlkemp.com
Web (background): www.rogerkemp.org
Contact: Roger Kemp, MPA, MBA, PhD, P
resident
Dr. Kemp has been author and editor of over a
dozen books dealing with issues relating to cities
(towns) and colleges (gowns). He gives
keynote speeches, strategic briefings, and
does futures research and consulting on
emerging trends dealing with the dynamic and
evolving field of town-gown relations.
21st Century Learning LLC
10 Jamaicaway, Suite #18,Boston, MA 02130
Telephone: 978-204-2770
Email: charlesfadel@gmail.com
Web: www.21stcenturyskillsbook.com
Contact: Charles Fadel, founder and best-
selling author: 21st Century Skills; visiting
scholar, Harvard GSE and MIT ESG.
Educations futures, as impacted by
Technology, and along the dimensions of
Knowledge, Skills, Character, and
Metacognition. Keynotes and seminars on
global education; education technology;
neuroscience of learning; creativity &
innovation; artificial intelligence &
augmented intelligence.
van der Werff Global, Ltd.
4958 Crystal Circle, Hoover, AL 35226
Phone: 888-448-3779 Fax: 888-432-9263
E-mail: terry@globalfuture.com
Web: www.globalfuture.com
Contact: Dr. Terry J. van der Werff, CMC
Confidential advisor to corporate leaders
worldwide on global trends, executive
leadership, and strategic change.
Xland sprl
111 Av Grandchamp, Brussels, Belgium 1150
Phone: 32-475-827-190 Fax: 32-2-762-46-08
Web: www.xland.be
E-mail: xland@skynet.be
Contact: D. Michel Judkiewicz
Trend analysis, scenarios, forecasting
opportunities/threats based on strong and
weak signals for resilient strategies.
BACK ISSUES OF THE FUTURIST
November-December 2014 Forecasts, Trends, and Ideas about the Future www.wfs.org November-December 2014

Outlook
(Volume 48, No. 6)
Trends at Work: An Overview of Tomorrows Employment Ecosystem The Future of
Futurists: Can a Machine Produce This Forecast? Library Futures: From Knowledge
Keepers to Creators OUTLOOK 2015: Top Trends and Forecasts for the Decade Ahead
2015 Could a Machine Have Predicted This? page 20
THE FUTURISTs
roundup of the most
thought-provoking
forecasts of the
year. Page 29

When Futurists Ask What If(Reports from WorldFuture 2014) Futurists and Their
Tomorrows Employment Ecosystem, page 14

Libraries as Knowledge Creators? page 24

$5.95 Conference report, WorldFuture 2014: What If, page 39

Ideas: Why Pop Futurism Fails

September-October 2014 Forecasts, Trends, and Ideas about the Future www.wfs.org September-October 2014

(Volume 48, No. 5) FUTURES EDUCATION

Teaching and Learning about the Future
A special report by members and friends

Special ReportFutures Education: Teaching and Learning about the Future

of the World Future Society Page 28

The State of Our

Global Future, page 15
7 Big Challenges

[Part 1: Foresight Education Programs and Courses; Part 2: The Houston Experience;
for Pakistan, page 22

WORLD TRENDS & FORECASTS

Mars Can Wait. Its Back

to the Lunar Future

Part 3: Real-World Futures Learning] Our Global Situation and Prospects for the Future
Inequality as a Predictor
of Civil War
Sharing the Caring: Trends
in Child Custody
Unraveling the Mysteries

Seven Big Challenges for Pakistanand the Lessons They Could Teach 10 Questions
of Alzheimers Disease

$5.95

for Machine Intelligence

July-August 2014
(Volume 48, No. 4)
Forecasts, Trends, and Ideas about the Future www.wfs.org July-August 2014

What If...
WorldFuture 2014 preview issue: Looking at the Future through a Cartoonists Eyes Conference Preview
Looking at the Future through
A Cartoonists Eyes, page 14

Visualizing the Future Technolife of Romeo and Juliet in 2035 Terra Nova: The
Technolife of Romeo and Juliet, page 24
Forest Futures in the
Anthropocene, page 34
What Does Moores Law Mean

Religious Quest for Tomorrow Backing into Eden, Gardening the World: A Parable
For the Rest of Society? Page 40
And much more!

PLUS: WORLD TRENDS & FORECASTS

Inventing Tomorrows Jobs

Forest Futures in the Anthropocene: Can Trees and Humans Survive Together? What
Making Waves in the Cosmos
Cities Helping Cities
Mexicos Dying Languages

Does Moores Law Mean for the Rest of Society? Deconstructing the Future: Seeing $5.95

beyond Magic Wand Predictions Abandoning Ship Titanistad

May-June 2014 Forecasts, Trends, and Ideas about the Future www.wfs.org May-June 2014

(Volume 48, No. 3) INSIDE MEDICAL FUTURES

Thanks to technologies that promise to improve
not only the practice of medicine but also the
management of health, our bodies will be built
better and last longer. See the special section

Mission for Worldwide Innovation Euphoric, Harmless, and Affordable: A Trend

beginning on page 31

Analysis of Sex Where Will the Century of Biology Lead Us? Rx Disruption:
Toward a More Perfect Sex Life, page 20
Our Pets in Sickness and Health, page 47
Mission for Worldwide Innovation, page 16

Technology Trends in Medicine and Health Care Sniffing out the Future of Medicine
WORLD TRENDS & FORECASTS
Good Robots Gone Bad
Altitudes Vertical Limit to Population Growth
The Unexpected Tolls of Racism
The End of the Earths Oceans?

Adventures in Personal Genomics Extending Pet Longevity: Our Companions in

3-D Printing Keeps on Growing
Choosing between Happiness and Meaning

$5.95 Join World Future Society for

just $79 per year and receive:

Sickness and in Health

THE FUTURIST magazine
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Futurist Update e-newsletter
Discounts on books
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Call 1-800-989-8274 or 1-301-656-8274

March-April 2014 Forecasts, Trends, and Ideas about the Future www.wfs.org March-April 2014

(Volume 48, No. 2) Drones vs.

Poachers
A World without Waste? The Information Revolutions Broken Promises Blundering Toward a World
without Waste, page 16
The Information Revolutions
Conservationists have a new
weapon in their battle to save
endangered species. Page 35

to Success? Learning from Failure When Do I Get My RoboCop? Power before

Broken Promises, page 22
How Businesses Can Learn
from Failure, page 30

WORLD TRENDS & FORECASTS

Superpowers Robotic Technology to Preserve Wildlife: A Scenario More Talk, Fewer

Designing the Domestic Robot
Does Smoking Drive Us to Drink?
Microalgae to Feed and Fuel the World
Why We Love the Apocalypse
and more!

Languages: Communicating in a Connected World Learning without Schools: A $5.95

Contrarian Future

January-February 2014 Forecasts, Trends, and Ideas about the Future www.wfs.org January-February 2014

(Volume 48, No. 1) The Best Predictions of 2013

A roundup of the years most-intriguing predictions
by experts from around the world. Page 31

Water Futures: An Islamic Perspective Causal Layered Analysis Defined When the
An Islamic Approach to
Water Management, page 19
Privacy and the Surveillance
Explosion, page 42

Economy Transcends Humanity The Best Predictions of 2013 Privacy and the
When Virtual Workers Rule
the World, page 27
Taking the Exoskeleton for a
Ride, page 64

Surveillance Explosion Riding the Power Jacket WoRld TREndS & FoREcASTS
Seeking Alien Life
Primates as Planners
Turf Wars?
Modeling Green Economies

$5.95 Join World Future Society for

just $79 per year and receive:
THE FUTURIST magazine
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Call 1-800-989-8274 or 1-301-656-8274

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Forecasts, Trends, and Ideas about the Future www.wfs.org Summer 2015