The conceptand

measurement
of mineral reserves
and resources
G.J.S. Govett and M.H. Govett

The distinction between an ex- Introduction

ploitable and a non-exploitable Concern for the environment and the future pattern of life on
mineral deposit is dynamic, varying earth has intensified the long-standing controversy about the
as a function of changing economic
adequacy of the world’s mineral resources to support a continuing
and technological factors. A con-
high level of material well-being in the developed countries and, at
ceptual framework is proposed:
‘reserves’
the same time, to supply the raw materials for industrialization in
are restricted to known
currently exploitable deposits;
the less developed countries.’ 3’ Words such as ‘scarcity’, ‘crisis’,
‘known resources’ are reserves plus and ‘cornucopia’ abound in the recent literature; models have been
currently non-exploitable deposits; constructed to prove that the industrial world as we know it is
‘total resources’ are known resources doomed - either through wanton waste, or through a selfish
plus all deposits not yet discovered. disregard for future generations, or as a result of ecological
The short-term inadequacy of some disaster.3 ,4
mineral reserves requires a policy of Debate on the problem of the adequacy of non-renewable
accelerated mineral exploration and resources is circumscribed by the sheer difficulty of measuring the
rapid development of new explora- quantities of minerals available and awaiting discovery. This is not
tion techniques. Future problems
simply the relatively easy problem of measuring quantities of ore
could be avoided if the nature of
in known deposits, nor the much more difficult problem of
resources is recognized and new
assessing the quantities of minerals yet to be found; i? is the
mineral extraction and processing
problem of defining agreed constraints on what is being measured.
techniques for lower grade and
unconventional mineral deposits are
Estimates of mineral supplies are dynamic figures which change
developed. not only with the discovery of new deposits-or tile depletion of
known deposits, but vary over time as a function of interacting
G.J.S. Govett is Professor in the Depart- economic and technological factors. As pointed out by Blonde1
ment of Geology, University of New
and Lasky5, there can be no absolute figure for the reserves oi‘ a:iy
Brunswick, Fredericton, New Brunswick,
Canada: M.H. Govett is an Economic Con- particular mineral.
sultant, Fredericton, New Brunswick,
Canada.

Problems of definition
The problems of defining and estimating mineral reserves and
resources have been dealt with at length:6-21 the problems of
measurement are compounded by the confusion in the definitions
used by geologists, engineers, economists, and politicians. The
miner concerns himself with a single ore deposit of limited area1
extent; the economist is interested in regional, national, or global
mineral supplies. There is an uneasy alliance between the two;
frequently there is a great deal of overlap and misunderstanding in
their measurements.
In 1956 Blonde1 and Lasky presented a paper5 on behalf of the
Society of Economic Geologists setting forth recommended
definitions and distinguishing between reserves and resources.

46 RESOURCES POLICY September 1974

’ Govett, G.J.S. and Govett, M.H. ‘Mineral However, the terms tire still used interchangeably by some writers,
resource supplies and the limits of and it is useful to systematically review them.
economic growth’, Earth Sci Rev 8 (1972)
pp 275-290
Ore, or an ore-body, in the geological and mining sense, is a
2 Govett, M.H. and Govett, G.J.S. ‘The
problems of energy and mineral resources’, mineral deposit or mineral concentration from which a metal
in Review of Research on Modern (or a non-metal compound) can be economically extracted at
Problems in Geochemistry edited by F.R.
the present time; the most important part of this definition is in
Siegel (to be published by UNESCO, 1974)
3 Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Ran-
italics. The time factor in relation to economic extraction is
ders, J. and Behrens, W.W. ‘The limits to vital. Copper is commonly extracted today from ores containing
growth’, (New York: Universal Books less than 0.5% of the metal; in 1700 the common mineable
1972) 205pp
grade was about 13% and in 1900 it was between 5% and 2.5%
4 Ecologist ‘A blueprint for survival’,
(Harmondsworth: Penguin, revised
The decrease in mineable grade is a function not only of the
edition, 1972) 139pp demand for copper, but also of technological changes in mining
5 Blondel, F. and Lasky, S.G. ‘Mineral and extraction techniques. Marketing conditions can also
reserves and mineral resources’, fcon Geol
influence whether a mineral deposit is considered as ore; a
51 (1956) pp 686-697
6 cupriferous pyrite deposit of about 3 x lo6 tonnes? with 0.24%
Zimmermann, E.W. ‘World resources and
industries’, (New York: Harper copper is being mined in Cyprus today2 2 because there is a
1933) - Revised edition (1951) 832pp market for this particular ore in Spain and because roads, a
7 Leith, C.K. ‘Mineral valuations of the railway, and port facilities are available. A similar deposit could
futur?‘, in American Institute of Mining
and Metallurgical Engineers “Elements of not possibly be considered economic in Canada today; neither
a national mineral policy” (New York: could a high-grade iron deposit in the Canadian far north
AIME 1938) pp 47-48
presently be regarded as ore since the metal cannot be brought
’ Fennel, J.H. ‘Ore reserves’, Trans lnst
MinMet49(1?39)~315
to market economically. A comparable high-grade iron deposit
9 Lasky, S.G. ‘The concept of ore
in the U.K. would certainly be considered as ore.
reserves’, Mining and Metallurgy, New Reserves are the quantity of ore available in the ground
York 26 (1945) pp 471-474 which is exploitable under present economic and technical
I ’ Lasky, S.G. ‘Mineral resources appraisal conditions; the quantity of ore is expressed as so many tons (or
by the United States Geological Survey’
Quart Cola Sch of Mines 45 (1950) p 10 pounds or ounces) of reserves. To the mining engineer
” Blondel, F. and Lasky, S.G. ‘Concepts concerned with a single ore deposit, reserves are usually
of mineral reserves and resources’ re- expressed in three categories of decreasing certainty’ >’ ’
printed in United Nations Survey of World
Iron Ore Resources (NY, United Nations
proved cm is ore which is blocked out in three dimensions
1970) pp 53-61 either by underground mining or drilling; probably ore is
‘* Flawn, P.T. ‘Mineral resources’ extensions of proved ore deposits where conditions are such
(Chicago: Rand McNally 1966) 406pp that ore will almost certainly be found: possible ore is prospec-
I3 Flawn, P.T. ‘Minerals: A final harvest tive ore adjacent to ore bodies and to geological structures
or an endless crop?’ Engineer and Min
Journ 166 (1965) pp 106-107
where lack of exploration and drilling precludes certainty as to
l4 Pruitt, R.G. Jr. ‘Mineral terms ~- some the extent and precise location of the ore.
problems in their use and definition’, 7 7th
Annual Rocky Mountain Mineral Law The reserve figures of the miner are almost always for reserves
lnsritute (New York: Matthew Bender and
Co. 1966) pp l-34
in the ground and as such do not take into account losses in
l5 ‘Skinner, B.J. ‘Earth Resources’ (Engle- extraction, which may be as high as 20% of the total. Such
wood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall reserves may seem to remain constant since a mining company
1969) 150~~ usually blocks out (ie, proves) a maximum of 20 to 25 years
l6 Lovering, T.S. ‘Mineral resources from
supply relative to the anticipated annual production level.
the land’, in National Academy of
Sciences and National Research Council Regional or national reserve estimates are derived by adding
Resources and Man (San Francisco, Calif: together data on many individual deposits; consequently they
W.H. Freeman 1969) pp 109-133 reflect many different assumptions and varying degrees of
accuracy. Different terminology has been adopted to distinguish
the regional and national reserve estimates from the miner’s
measurements; these categories (used by the US Geological Survey
Throughout this paper, conversions from
and the US Bureau of Mines2 3 ) are:
tons (if quoted in the original manuscript)
to metric tonnes have been made by the Measured reserves - ore tonnage compiled from drill holes,
publishers, where necessary: full responsi-
bility is accepted by the publishers for any trenches, workings, and outcrops; grade is computed from
errors thus incurred. detailed sampling.

RESOURCES POLICY September 1974 47

 Indicated reserves - ore tonnage computed in part from specific
measurements and in part from geographic projections based on
geological evidence. The size and shape of the deposits are not
fully outlined, and the grade is not precisely established.
Inferred reserves - estimates of tonnage based on broad
geological knowledge; concealed deposits, where there is
sufficient geological evidence of their presence, are included.

There is confusion in the actual usage of these and the miner’s

terms*. The miner’s possible reserves are sometimes considered as
analogous to inferred reserves, although in practice inferred reserve
estimates go far beyond the miner’s possible reserves; the various
categories of reserves are sometimes combined into a single figure
which is variously called demonstrated reserves (Blonde1 and
I7 Hubbert, M.K. ‘Energy resources’, in
Lasky’ ), identified reserves (Netschert and Landsberg’ 5 ), and
National Academy of Sciences and
National Research Council Resources and apparent reserves. In the 53 chapters in the voluminous Mineral
Man (San Francisco, Calif: W.H. Freeman Facts and Problems,* 6 apparent reserves describe proved reserves
19691 pp 157-242
(petroleum); measured plus indicated reserves (the platinum
la McKelvey, V.E. ‘Mineral resource esti-
mates and public policy’, American
group of metals); the sum of measured, indicated, and inferred
Scientist 60 (1972) pp 32-40 reserves (nickel and aluminium); in some cases the term is not
l9 McKelvev. V.E. ‘Mineral ootential of defined at all.
the United States’, in The Mineral Position A further complication arises with the use of ‘potential ore’ and
of the United States, 1975-2000 edited by
E.N. Cameron (Madison: Universitv of
‘potential reserves’. Blonde1 and Lasky’ defined potential ore as
Wisconsin Press 1973) pp 67-82
“
*’ Zwartendyk, J. ‘What is “mineral . mineral masses which are currently
. . non-exploitable, yet
endowment” and how should we measure which may be exploitable if conditions become only slightly
it?‘, Mineral Bul MR 126 (Ottawa: Dept.
Energy, Mines and Resources 1972) 17pp
better” (p 692), but pointed out that such a subdivision could
*’ Brooks, D.B. ‘Minerals: An expanding cause difficulties in usage. A dictionary of mineral terms compiled
or a dwindling resource?‘, Mineral Bull MR by the US Bureau of Mines * 7 states under the entry for potential
134 (Ottawa: Dept Energy, Mines and
ore that the term is considered obsolete. Unfortunately Flawn’ *
Resources 1973) 17pp
** Constantinou, G. and Govett, G.J.S.
introduced the phrase ‘potential reserves’ in preference to
‘Geology, geochemistry and genesis of ‘potential ore’, and it has entered the literature. The writers share
Cyprus sulfide deposits’, Econ Geol 68 the opinion of ZwartendykZo that ‘potential’ is a rather
(1973) pp 843-858
meaningless qualifier. As he so aptly pointed out “ . . . a clump of
23 US Geological Survey, 1968. Geo-
logical Survey Research, 1968, Chapter A.
rock may be called a ‘potential iron ore’, which in turn may be
Geological Survey PrOfeSSiOnal PaPer called a ‘potential bicycle’.” (p 4)
600~~. (Washington DC: US Govt Print
Office) 371 pp
Resources, as a concept, includes reserves at one end of the
24 United Nations. Survey of World Iron
Ore Resources (New York: United Nations scale and grades down to the finite limit of an element
1970) 479pp represented by the average amount present in the rock of a
*’ Netschert, B.C. and Landsberg, H.H. region (including offshore areas and the oceans). Quite clearly,
‘The future supply of the major metals: a
although conceptually resources are only limited by the crustal
reconnaissance survey’, Wash DC: Re-
sources for the Future (1961) 65pp abundance of the element, at any moment in time total
26 US Bureau of Mines. ‘Mineral facts and resource estimates assume some defined grade which is higher
problems’ (Washington DC: US Govt Print than the crustal abundance of the element but lower than the
Office 1970) 1291 pp
present economic grade.
*’ Thrush, P.W. ‘A dictionary of mining,
mineral and related terms’, (Wash DC: US
The total resources of a nation, or of the world, consist of all
Bureau of Mines 1968) 1269pp mineral deposits - both known and unknown.
Known resources include all reserves plus all deposits currently
l Zwartendvk*’ has a good discussion of
known but not presently exploitable for economic or technical
this; in the revised survey of iron ore
supplies, the United Nations24 provided a reasons; thus known resources can be divided into two
glossary of terms which included 16 categories, reserves and non-exploitable deposits. As economic
definitions of terms used to describe and technical conditions change, some non-exploitable deposits
reserves and resources and a further 13
definitions of terms used exclusively for will become reserves; as new discoveries are made, additional
iron ore. deposits will be added to known resources.

48 RESOURCES POLICY Sepetember

 Unknown resources include all mineral deposits which have not
yet been discovered, regardless of when they might become
economically recoverable. Although estimates of unknown
resources in terms of tonnages are not generally made, there
have been attempts to determine the undiscovered resources for
some minerals. For example, Lowell* 8 calculated an order of
magnitude for undiscovered copper resources based on an
estimate of approximately 3 x 10’ 5 tonnes of copper in the
first mile of the earth’s crust, of which approximately 10”
tonnes is concentrated in deposits with a grade in excess of
0.25% copper; of this, 96% remains to be mined.

Estimates of resources are necessarily dynamic; the realization that

it was economic to mine copper porphyry deposits for their ore in
the early part of this century increased the world’s known copper
reserves, and therefore resources, by several hundred per cent.
Total resources cannot be measured with any precision; the limit
of what may be recoverable at some time in the future is
uncertain, and the number of deposits which may be discovered in
the future is even more uncertain. Nevertheless, in addition to
Lowell’s estimates of copper resources, attempts have been made
to estimate resources of other minerals by extrapolating
production, reserves, and discovery’ ’ ,* 9 ,30 and by relating the
reserves of a mineral to its crustal abundance’ 8 ,3 1--34. Estimates
of total resources for some minerals would have to include exotic
” Lowell, J.D. ‘Copper resources in
1970’, Mining Engineer 22 (1970) PP sources (such as ocean nodules in the case of nickel and
67-73 manganese). For many minerals, resources can only be described
29 Hubbert, M.K. ‘Survey of world energy as ‘large’ or ‘vast’.
resources’, Cand lnst Min Met Bull 66
&973’ pp 37-53
It is meaningless to use concepts such as a country’s or the
Averitt, P. ‘Coal resources of the
world’s ‘resource base’ to define the absolute limit of the supply
United States’, US Geol Surv Boll 1275 of a given mineral. The resource base of copper in the UK could be
(1969) 116~~ thought of as that amount of copper which is available in the total
31 McKelvev, V.E. ‘Relation of reserves of
amount of rock in the UK; assuming an average content of 5.8 x
the elements to their crustal abundance’,
Amer J Sci 258A (19601 PP 234-241 10m3 per cent**, a land surface of 244 019 km* (94 2 16 miles* ),
32 Nolan, T.B. ‘The search for new mining and considering the copper contained in only 1.61 km (one mile)
districts’, Econ Geol 45 (1950) pp thickness of the earth’s crust, the ‘resource base’ of copper in the
60 l-608
UK could be calculated as 6.3 x 10’ o tonnes. This would be
33 Sekin, Y. ‘On the concept of concen-
tration of ore-forming elements and the
equivalent to 10 000 years supply at the current world production
relationship of their frequency in the rate of copper, compared with total world reserves presently
earth’s crust’, Internat/ Geol Rev 5 (tl963) estimated at 3 14 x 1O6 tonnes. 35 Such a concept, while it does
pp 505-515
34 Ovchinnikov, L.N. ‘Estimates of world
give an upper limit, has little practical significance either to the
reserves of metals in terrestial deposits’, geologist or to the economist. It perhaps lies behind statements
Doklady Akad Nauk SSSR 196 Eng tram such as that recently made by Boyd36 to the effect that
Amer Geol lnst 179711 pp ZOO-203 “
total resources are large enough to stagger the imagination”
35US National Commission on Materials
Policy. ‘Toward a national meterials
(p’ j, and may be used by those who examine the possibilities of
policy’, 2nd interim report (Washington solving mineral shortages by mining whole rock and even sea
DC: US Govt Print Office 1973) 87pp water.3 ’
36 Boyd, J. ‘Minerals and how we use
them’, in The mineral position of the
United States, 7975-2000 edited by E.N.
Cameron (Madison: University of Wiscon-
sin Press 1973) pp 1-8 Nleasurement of reserves and resources
37 Brown, H. ‘The challenge of man’s Table 1 gives data on estimates of reserves and resources for a
future’, (NY: Viking 19541 290pp
number of industrially important minerals. The current reserve
l* Crustal abundance of copper as cited estimates are for deposits which were considered to be
by Skinner’ 5. economically exploitable at the time the estimates were made and

RESOURCES POLICY September 1974 49

 include some deposits which had not been completely explored
but which could be quantitatively estimated; thus the estimates
include not only measured, but also indicated and inferred
reserves. The estimates of current resources include deposits which
may become exploitable ultimately - known deposits where
exploitation awaits more favourable economic or technical
conditions and undiscovered deposits which are geologically
predictable.
The reserve ligures for 1947- 1948 in Table 13 8 are derived from
a number of different sources, and, while they are not directly
comparable with the current reserve data, they illustrate how
estimates can change within a period of only twenty years. Iron
ore reserves increased 13 times; chromium reserves increased
seven-fold; bauxite and manganese reserves increased approxi-
mately four-fold. Reserves of copper increased three-fold, and
silver, lead, and zinc reserves approximately doubled. On the other
hand, tungsten and tin reserves decreased in the same period.
One of the chief difficulties in measuring mineral supplies is
unavailability of data. The iron ore reserve figure for 1947-1948 in
Table 1 excludes ores in the USSR, although USSR iron reserves
now account for 44% of the world tota!.24 and it must be
assumed that they were large in the earlier period; part of the
13-fold increase in reserves shown must be attributed to the
inclusion of the USSR reserves in the current estimates. On the
other hand, current United Nations estimates of iron ore resources
do not include tonnages for the very significant deposits found in
Australia in the last decade.
The frequent changes in reserve and resource estimates reflect,
in addition to new information, price changes, new discoveries and
technical break-throughs. Uranium is the classic case of the effect
38 Pehrson, E.W. ‘Estimates of selected
world mineral supplies by cost range’ in
of price on reserve estimates: at a price of less than 54.17 ($10.00)
United Nations, Proceedings of the United per tonne, US uranium reserves were estimated at 6.6 x lo5
Nations Scientific Conference on the tonnes; at a price of 512.50-541.70 ($30.00-$100.00) they rise to
Conservation and Utilization of Resources,
Lake Success, New York, Vol 2 (New
about 2 x 10’ tonnes. l 5 World reserves of silver have been
York: United Nations 1951) pp 2-4 estimated at 1.56 x 10’ ’ g based on 1968 prices; additional

Table 1. World mineral reserves and resources (tonnes x lo6 unless otherwise stated):
1947-1948 and current

1947-1948 Current data

Mineral reserves
Reserves Resources

Bauxite 1 400 5 900 9 800

Chromium 100 700 2 800
Copper 100 308 NA”
Iron Ore 19 000 251 000 782 500
Lead 40 75 NA*
Manganese 1 000 3 900 15200
Mercury (34.5kg (76 lb)
flasks x 103) NA” 7 000 15000
Silver (kg x IO61 85.54 171.1 634.5
Notes to Table 1. 2 - data not available. Tin 6 000 5 700 11 600
Early data from Pehrson38 except for Titanium NA” 520 1 810
silver (from Reference 39); current data Tungsten (tonnes x 103) 4 000 1 360 NA”
for silver, titanium, chromium and zinc Uranium (tonnes x 103) NA* 944 2 500
from Reference 26; current data for iron Vanadtum (tonnes x 103) NA” 4 200 18 100
from Reference 24; current reserves for Zinc 70 124 NA”
uranium from Reference 40; all other
current data from Reference 23.

VI
tin RESOURCES POLICY September 1974
 reserves of 4.22 x 10’ l g would be available at a price of &0.05/g
($O.l2/g).Z 6
The inclusion of large deposits of lateritic nickel ores, which are
abundant in the world’s tropical and semi-tropical areas and which
are now classified as reserves in Cuba, Guatemala, the Dominican
Republic, the Philippines, Indonesia, and New Caledonia, has
made a significant difference to world nickel reserves. This is
reflected in a comparison of nickel reserves published in 1965 and
1970.2 6 ,3 g estimates of reserves in 1970 in New Caledonia and,
Cuba’ each doubled within the five-year period, and the 1970
reserves in the Philippines, Indonesia, the Dominican Republic,’
and Guatemala together were twice the amount reported for the
entire non-communist world (excluding Canada) in 1965.
The most recent revision of uranium reserves, based on new
assessments of deposits in the US, Australia, and Southwest
Africa, showed an increase of nearly 50% in the five years between
1968 and 1973. 4o The large porphyry copp er depoSits in the
southwestern United States and Chile were known before the turn
of the century, but as Lowel12’ (1970) asked, “What could you
do with several million tons of 2% copper in 1900?” (p 69).
Continuing changes in economic grade and technological
break-throughs in extraction and processing methods - as well as
political development -- could well shift the present geographic
concentration of copper reserves in Chile, Zambia, and Zaire in
favour of Peru, New Guinea, the Philippines, the Solomon Islands,
and Canada. Similarly, the current Middle Eastern domination of
world petroleum reserves could be radically altered by
exploitation of the North Sea and the Alaskan deposits and the
Canadian tar sands and American oil shales. In the past two
decades Canadian reserves of iron ore have increased more than
six-fold; natural gas and petroleum reserves have increased
three-fold; nickel, copper, zinc and uranium reserves have all
grown significantly. 41 Together with Canada, South Africa now
holds a major share of the non-communist world’s uranium
reserves. Australian iron reserves have increased enormously in the
past decade,. and resources are considered ‘vast’.2 4
The geographic concentration of world resources follows the
pattern of reserve distribution, although new exploration and
advances in research into metallogenic provinces may reveal new
areas of hitherto unknown deposits. New methods of extracting
minerals from offshore areas (tin), from the ocean floor (nickel
and manganese), and technical advances in the extraction and
processing of minerals from clays (aluminium) may make a
considerable difference in the future pattern of mineral resource
distribution.

39 US Bureau of Mines. ‘Mineral facts and

problems’, (Washington DC: US Govt
Print Office 1965) 1113~~
A conceptual framework for reserves and resources
4ti US Bureau of Mines.‘Minera/s Yearbook’
Vol 1 (Washington DC: US Govt Print
Given the dynamic character of reserve and resource estimates, a
Office 1973) 1303pp ./-I conceptual framework is useful. Classification schemes have
41 Govett, G.J.S. and Govett, M.H. recently been proposed by McKelvey’ 8 and Zwartendyk.* O The
(editors). ‘Mineral resource supplies -
classification proposed by McKelvey is being used as the basis of a
assessment and perspective’, (To be
published by Elsevier, Amsterdam) - in resource inventory of the US” and is illustrated in Table 2. Total
press resources are divided into identified and unidentified resources;

RESOURCES POLICY September 1974 51

 the identified resources are subdivided into recoverable reserves,
paramarginal identified resources (recoverable at 1.5 times present
costs), and submarginal identified resources (possibly recoverable
at some future time with appropriate cost and technical changes).
The unidentified resources are subdivided into deposits which may
reasonably be expected to exist in known mining districts
(‘hypothetical resources’) and deposits ‘which may be anticipated
in a favourable geological environment (‘speculative resources’)
where no deposits have yet been discovered. Although the writers
have some doubts about the necessity or desirability of
introducing yet more terms (paramarginal, hypothetical, specu-
lative), the McKelvey proposal is an excellent statement of a
resource classification scheme. However, its main drawback - in
the form presented - is its failure to emphasize the dynamic
character of the resource categories and to illustrate realistic
relative proportions of these categories.
An alternative approach is illustrated in Figure 1. The entire
area of the triangle ABC may be considered as representing one
hundred Beer cent of the total resources of any particular mineral
on a national, regional, or global scale; offshore and oceanic
resources may be included. The absolute amount (eg tonnes) for
any particular metal represented by this area depends on a defined
lower limit of the economic grade over a stated period of time (as
indicated by the scale al‘ong line AB) and a defined limit to the
thickness of the earth’s crust which realistically may be explored
and mined.
Even with these parameters defined, some extraordinarily
sophisticated geological deduction is required to estimate how
many unidentified mineral deposits may reasonably be expected
to occur within a particular region or in the world. Grossling4 *
argued that the world’s mineral supplies could be increased by at
least one order of magnitude by mining at greater depths;
calculations of the increase in resources in the earth’s crust
compared with the thin layer now mined are reassuring.4 3
However, it is not at all obvious how these deep deposits will be
found, considering the present difficulties geologists have in
locating ore deposits only a few metres (some tens of feet) below
._ the surface.41 The effect of environmental restraints on both
4L Grossling, B.F. ‘Future mineral supply’, exploration and exploitation will also influence the rate at which
Icon Geol65 (1970) PP 348-354
new mineral deposits can be found and exploited.
43 Nolan, T.B. ‘The outlook for the
future - non-renewable resources’. Econ The proportion of known resources is given by the area of
Geol50 (1955) pp l-8 triangle ADC on Figure 1. As more mineral deposits are found (as

ldentlfwd resources Undiscovered resources

Posslble
I
Proved Probable I
I o-I
Recoverable I +: -3
Reserves I 6;
I =5
au3
Paramarginal I Hypothetical I Speculative 3.
Identified resources , resources I resources : g
I I 2 m.
Submarginal I ps
I 1I” known ) 1In unknown -ir”
I districts)
I distr’cts)
/ I
Table 2. Classification of mineral re-
sources proposed by McKelyey’ 8 lncreas~ng degree of certainty

52 RESOURCES POLICY September 1974


44 Lasky, S.G. ‘How tonnage-grade re-
lations help predict ore reserves’, Engineer
Min Journ (1950) pp 81-85
indicated along line CB by exploration success), the portion of
known resources will increase. The discoveries of porphyry copper
deposits at Bougainville would cause a major shift in line AD, as
did the discoveries of iron ore and bauxite in Australia in the last
decade. (It should be noted that Figure 1 is a schematic
illustration; in practice line AD cannot be a straight line.)
The division between non-exploitable deposits and reserves is
dictated at any given moment by the position of line EF, which is
a function of economic grade and technology. A lowering of the
economic grade resulting from rising demand (copper since the
turn of the century), improved extraction techniques (lateritic
nickel ores), or a price increase (silver), will lower line EF,
transferring some non-exploitable deposits to the reserve category.
A discovery rate which keeps pace with demand (a constant
production: reserve ratio) will tend to stabilize line EF. The line can
also move upwards; a decrease in world metal prices can cause a
reserve to become a non-exploitable deposit - this was the case
with uranium in Canada in the late 1950s and recently with iron
ore in India.’ 4
Technical advances that lower the mineable grade of a mineral
will not only directly lower line EF, but -will also increase the
portion of newly discovered deposits which can be classified as
reserves. Technological break-throughs may be more important
than either price changes or exploration successes in increasing
reserves; a new discovery may add a new mine, but a new
technique will increase the efficiency of mining generally,
especially if it allows lower grade ores to be mined,? 1 There is not
a simple arithmetic relation between grade and reserves; reducing
the mineable grade by half may result in an increase in reserves of
metal by a factor much greater than two. l 6 ,4 4
It is not reasonable to attempt to estimate the position of line
EF beyond a few decades. Today it is easily possible to conceive
of 0.25% copper being generally recoverable economically well
before the year 2000; it would be foolhardy to guess an economic
grade for copper in the year 2050 or 2100.
Estimates of known resources must decrease in reliability in the
order measured reserves > indicated reserves > inferred reserves >
non-exploitable deposits (ie along line AC). The estimates also

1
Measured
WserYes 1
Indicated A
Total
reserves Known resaurces c^-^,.-- - I . \ \
Inferred
m rb?serWs
Non-exploitable
um deposits :
Unknown
0 resources

Unknown resources

Figure 1. Conceptual model of the Lowest grade //

considered passZiF B Unknown
relation between mineral resources for same dot inod
Exploration success
time period
and mineral reserves

RESOURCES POLICY September 1974 53

 become increasingly less reliable as we move from C towards B,
since it is not possible to accurately predict the scale of
exploration successes.

Discussion
A rational mineral resource policy cannot be formulated at any
level - local, national, or international - unless there is a clear
understanding and accepted definition of the terms of
measurement of supplies of non-renewable resources. Moreover,
failure to recognize the essentially dynamic nature of the
measurement of mineral supplies must inevitably lead to
implementation of resource policies designed only for a static
situation. Some of the disagreement concerning the adequacy of
present mineral supplies is attributable to lack of precision in the
use of’ terms and data; the current Canadian concern for its future
reserves has arisen largely from a failure to differentiate between
measured reserves and non-exploitable resources.4 ’
In terms of total reserves and generous projections of likely
exploration success in finding mineral deposits of presently
economic grades, there is clearly an impending shortage of a
number of minerals. Specifically, world reserves of manganese,
molybdenum, tungsten, aluminium, copper, lead, zinc, tin,
titanium, and sulphur are considered inadequate to meet projected
demand in the next 50 years.’ ,3 ,46
In terms of resources there can be no serious deficiencies
provided that new exploration and, especially, new mineral
extraction and processing techniques are developed. The
distinction between a reserve and a resource crisis must be clearly
recognized; the policies which must be designed to meet them are
quite different. Ignoring the presBing problems of environmental
control, the legitimate aspirations of developing countries and thk
economic-political problems of both the developed and the develop-
ing countries (see Govett and Govett2), there are two distinct and
different policy requirements to meet the problem of mineral
shortages:
(1) For the next 25 to 30 years minerals will probably have to
be provided from ore deposits which do not radically differ
from those being exploited at present. Assuming that
consumption will continue to increase, new mineral deposits
must be found. This implies accelerated exploration for shallow
buried deposits and the development of new exploration
techniques to find ore deposits at greater depth. These aims can
probably be realized, given adequate research priority and
finance and a political atmosphere in which the mining industry
4s Govett, G.J.S. and Govett, M.H.
is willing to continue and expand exploration.
‘Mineral resources and Canadian - (2) The long-term demand for minerals is most unlikely to be
American trade - double-edged vulner- met from ore deposits of present grades; inevitably, lower and
ability’, Cand inst Min Met 5uN 66 (1973)
pp 66-71
lower grade ores and alternative sources (eg the ocean floor) will
46 Fischman, L.L. and Landsberg, H.H.
have to be exploited. There will obviously be a demand for a
‘Adequacy of nonfuel minerals and forest whole new range of mineral processing and extraction
resources’ in Population, Resources and techniques and new sources of energy. A concentrated research
the Environment edited by R.G. Ridker
(Washington DC: US Govt Print Office
effort should now be under way to develop the new technology
1972) required so that it will be available when needed.

54 RESOURCES POLICY September 1974

 Conclusions
The exponential growth pattern of world mineral consumption
can only be broken by stabilizing world population and demand at
present levels. Theoretically the industrialized countries could
decide to reduce consumption; it is extremely difficult to imagine
the less developed majority of the world agreeing to forego future
growth. It seems more realistic to accept the present growth
pattern as a model for the future and to design policies to meet
rising demand, rather than to base resource planning on a belief
that growth can be halted - or even significantly reduced - in the
foreseeable future.
Mineral supplies for the next few decades will be a serious
problem unless governments and industry are willing to support
research at something like the levels that have been spent on space
research. Unfortunately, mineral shortages can and’ do appear
suddenly ; in a pattern of rapidly accelerating consumption,
reserves which appear to be quite adequate for twenty years may
prove to be inadequate for even five years. Realistic resource
policies cannot be designed unless the magnitude of the problem is
clearly recognized. A plea is made for a much more rigorous
system of measuring the world’s supply of non-renewable
resources. It would be most unfortunate if a government believed
that its domestic reserves of a strategic mineral were adequate for
many decades only to find that 95% of the deposits were in fact
not reserves but only non-exploitable resources for which the
existing extraction and processing techniques were inadequate.
The reverse situation would be equally unfortunate; limited funds
should not be spent on research and exploration for those minerals
for which there are abundant reserves in the mistaken belief that
the deposits are presently not economically or technically
exploitable.

RESOURCES POLICY September 1974 55