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Departemen Statistika-2017

RESPONSI IV

METODE STATISTIKA 2017

Materi :

Konsep Peluang

Soal:

1. Dalam sebuah kotak terdapat 10 bola lampu yang 4 diantaranya rusak. Jika dipilih 3 bola lampu,
maka peluang terpilih :
a. lampu yang tidak rusak
𝑛 = 10 𝑗𝑢𝑚𝑙𝑎ℎ 𝑟𝑢𝑠𝑎𝑘 = 4 𝑗𝑢𝑚𝑙𝑎ℎ 𝑡𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑘 𝑟𝑢𝑠𝑎𝑘 = 6
Diambil 3 lampu secara acak, sehingga kemungkinan yang terjadi adalah
- tidak rusak semua – 1 lampu rusak 2 lampu tidak rusak – 2 lampu rusak 1 lampu tidak rusak
X= jumlah lampu yang tidak rusak
(63)(40)
𝑃(𝑥 = 3, 𝑦 = 0) = = 0.166
(10
3
)

(62)(41)
𝑃(𝑥 = 2, 𝑦 = 1) = = 0.5
(10
3
)

(61)(42)
𝑃(𝑥 = 1, 𝑦 = 2) = = 0.3
(10
3
)
Jadi peluang tidak rusak adalah
𝑃(𝑥) = 𝑃(𝑥 = 3) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 2) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 1) = 0.166 + 0.5 + 0.3 = 0.966
b. 1 lampu baik dan 2 rusak
(61)(42)
𝑃(𝑥 = 1, 𝑦 = 2) = = 0.3
(10
3
)
c. Semuanya rusak
(60)(43)
𝑃(𝑥 = 0, 𝑦 = 3) = = 0.033
(10
3
)

2. Sebuah kotak berisi 4 kelereng merah dan 3 biru. Tiga kelereng diambil secara acak dengan
pemulihan. Misalkan A adalah kejadian kedua kelereng berwarna sama, dan B adalah kejadian
sedikitnya satu kelereng berwarna merah. Tentukan peluang:
a. P(A)

𝑀=4 𝐵=3 𝑛 = 10 𝑥 = 3
Kemungkinan yang terjadi jika kedua kelereng berwarna sama yaitu
MMB –BMM-MBM- BBM-BMB-MBB
x = jumlah warna merah ; y=jumlah awarna biru
(42)(31)
𝑃(𝑥 = 2, 𝑦 = 1) = (73)
= 0.5142

(41)(32)
𝑃(𝑥 = 1, 𝑦 = 2) = (73)
= 0.342

𝑃(𝑑𝑢𝑎 𝑘𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑔 𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑎 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑎) = 𝑃(𝑥 = 2, 𝑦 = 1) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 1, 𝑦 = 2) = 0.8562


b. P(B)

B=jumlah kelereng sedikitnya satu merah


Terdapat beberapa kemungkinan yang terjadi yaitu
MBB – MMB – MMM
(41)(32)
𝑃(𝑥 = 1, 𝑦 = 2) = (73)
= 0.342

(42)(31)
𝑃(𝑥 = 2, 𝑦 = 1) = (73)
= 0.5142

(43)(30)
𝑃(𝑥 = 3, 𝑦 = 0) = (73)
= 0.1142

𝑗𝑎𝑑𝑖 𝑝𝑒𝑙𝑢𝑎𝑛𝑔 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑎𝑡𝑢 𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑎ℎ 𝑎𝑑𝑎𝑙𝑎ℎ


𝑃(𝑥 ≥ 1) = 𝑃(𝑥 = 1, 𝑦 = 2) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 2, 𝑦 = 1) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 3, 𝑦 = 0) = 0.9704
P(A ∩ B)
c.
𝑆 = {𝑀𝑀𝑀, 𝑀𝐵𝐵, 𝐵𝑀𝐵, 𝐵𝐵𝑀, 𝑀𝑀𝐵, 𝑀𝐵𝑀, 𝐵𝑀𝑀, 𝐵𝐵𝐵}
𝐴 = {𝑀𝑀𝐵, 𝑀𝐵𝐵, 𝑀𝐵𝑀, 𝐵𝑀𝑀, 𝑀𝐵𝑀, 𝐵𝐵𝑀}
𝐵 = {𝑀𝑀𝐵, 𝑀𝐵𝐵, 𝑀𝑀𝑀, 𝐵𝑀𝐵, 𝐵𝐵𝑀, 𝑀𝐵𝑀, 𝐵𝑀𝑀}
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = {𝑀𝑀𝐵, 𝑀𝐵𝐵, 𝑀𝐵𝑀, 𝐵𝑀𝑀, 𝐵𝑀𝐵, 𝐵𝐵𝑀}
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝑥 = 2, 𝑦 = 1)𝑃(𝑥 = 1, 𝑦 = 2) = 0.5142 × 0.342 = 0.1758
d. P(A ∪ B)
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = {𝑀𝑀𝐵, 𝑀𝐵𝐵, 𝑀𝐵𝑀, 𝐵𝑀𝑀, 𝐵𝑀𝐵, 𝐵𝐵𝑀, 𝑀𝑀𝑀}
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝑥 = 1, 𝑦 = 2) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 2, 𝑦 = 1) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 3, 𝑦 = 0)
= 0.5142 + 0.342 + 0.1142 = 0.9704

3. Three children A couple plans to have three children. Suppose that the probability of any
given child being female is 0.5, and suppose that the genders of each child are independent
events.
a. Write out all outcomes in the sample space for the genders of the three children.
b. What should be the probability associated with each outcome?
Using the sample space constructed in part a, find the probability that the couple will have
c. two girls and one boy.
d. at least one child of each gender.
Jawab:
a. 𝑆 = {𝐺𝐺𝐺, 𝐺𝐺𝐵, 𝐺𝐵𝐺, 𝐺𝐵𝐵, 𝐵𝐺𝐺, 𝐵𝐺𝐵, 𝐵𝐵𝐺, 𝐵𝐵𝐵}
b. Peluang setiap anggota dari ruang hasil adalah 1/8
c. Terdapat beberapa kemungkinan daerah hasil untuk dua girl dan satu boy
𝐴 = {𝐺𝐺𝐵, 𝐺𝐵𝐺, 𝐵𝐺𝐺} jadi 𝑃(𝐴) = 3/8
d. Peluang paling sedikit satu jenis kelamin untuk setiap jenis kelamin
𝐵 = {𝐺𝐺𝐵, 𝐺𝐵𝐺, 𝐺𝐵𝐵, 𝐵𝐺𝐺, 𝐵𝐺𝐵, 𝐵𝐵𝐺} jadi 𝑃(𝐵) = 6/8

4. Airport Security Suppose that, in a particular city, airport A handles 50% of all airline traffic,
and airports B and C handle 30% and 20%, respectively. The detection rates for weapons at the
three airports are .9, .8, and .85, respectively. If a passenger at one of the airports is found to
be carrying a weapon through the boarding gate, what is the probability that the passenger is
using airport A? Airport C?
A’=airport A handle traffic
B’=airport B handle traffic
C’=airport C handle traffic
A’’=Tingkat deteksi senjata A
B’’=Tingkat deteksi senjata B
C’’=Tingkat deteksi senjata C

Airport A Airport B Airport C


traffic 0.5 0.3 0.2
weapon 0.9 0.8 0.85
****BERBAHAGIALAH APABILA ANDA SENANG MENGERJAKAN SOAL
TERSEBUT ****

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