Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: Survey ‐105k Actual ‐54 Prior ‐131 Revised ‐54
Change in Private Payrolls: Survey 40k Actual 67 Prior 71 Revised 107
Private Payroll Formation coming off the trough of the recession
This recession is actually tracking previous recessions in terms of adding Private Payrolls. Total Payroll
formation lags a bit, but is also tracking fairly close. Overall, today’s payroll report is a good one,
although the manufacturing payrolls are a bit of a conundrum (particularly in light of the ISM #s earlier
this week). Ten year yields immediately jumped ~11 bps as the bond market priced in higher growth.
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: Survey 10k Actual ‐27 Prior 36 Revised 34
Unemployment Rate: Survey 9.6% Actual 9.6 Prior 9.5
Avg Hourly Earnings: Survey 0.1% Actual 0.3 Prior 0.2
Avg Weekly Hours: Survey 34.2 Actual 34.2 Prior 34.2
• The Coast Guard is investigating the cause of a fire on an oil platform in the Gulf yesterday. The
fire started in or near the living quarters, according to a Coast Guard spokesman, which means it may
not have been related to the platform’s operation. Yesterday, the news of an explosion and fire drew
parallels to the BP disaster. It turns out there was no explosion, however. Still, Bloomberg News says
industry watchers fear the accident may end the industry’s hopes for an early end of the deep‐water
drilling moratorium. The WSJ says Mariner Energy has a history of fires and violations, which reinforces
the Administration’s argument for a thorough reexamination of regulations and procedures.
• The WSJ says Afghan President Karzai’s brother, the largest shareholder in Kabul Bank, is in the
US to back the bank to stop a run which has already depleted a third of the bank’s deposits. A
spokesman for the Obama Administration says a team of experts has been dispatched to advise the
Afghan central bank, but there are no plans to support the Kabul Bank itself. – WSJ
• The Administration is considering a permanent extension of the research and development tax
credit, according to Bloomberg News, in addition to a payroll tax holiday, a small business tax cut and
additional infrastructure spending as part of a second stimulus package expected to be proposed in the
fall. – FTN Financial
• US equity technicals (from M Krauss) ‐ Two stong days have now entered 1091‐1108 near term
resistance, after Wed’s 1040 two‐week base breakout above 1065. Bears if below 1065/1055. Holding
1040 into early‐October would generate a 1150‐1200 Christmas present for the bulls. To us, Aug’s 1129
to 1040 decline was a corrective ABC, not an impulse of a new bear market.
• BP oil spill – BP has said that its costs to date due to the Gulf spill amount to ~$8B. Bloomberg
• European Central Bank President Jean‐Claude Trichet adopted a more hawkish tone at
yesterday’s monthly press conference than last month. The head of the Governing Council said, “Risks to
the outlook for price developments are slightly tilted to the upside.” In August, the ECB wrote that
“Risks to the outlook for price developments are broadly balanced.” – Bloomberg
US Unemployment Rate – 1980 to present