Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Total 15 17 32
IN THE PREVIOUS TUTORIAL we have tables that could have been observed,
outlined some simple methods for for the same row and column totals as
analysing binary data, including the the observed data. These row and Results of the study to examine whether intra-muscular
comparison of two proportions using column totals are also known as magnesium is better than placebo for the treatment of
the Normal approximation to the marginal totals. What we are trying to chronic fatigue syndrome.†
1
binomial and the Chi-squared test. establish is how extreme our particular
However, these methods are only table (combination of cell frequencies)
approximations, although they are is in relation to all the possible ones
good when the sample size is large. that could have occurred given the FIGURE 1
When the sample size is small we can marginal totals.
evaluate all possible combinations of This is best explained by a simple
the data and compute what are known worked example. The data in table 1 (i) (ii) (iii)
as exact P-values. come from an RCT comparing intra-
muscular magnesium injections with 0 15 1 14 2 13
FISHER’S EXACT TEST placebo for the treatment of chronic
When one of the expected values (note: fatigue syndrome.3 Of the 15 patients
not the observed values) in a 2 × 2 table who had the intra-muscular 15 2 14 3 13 4
is less than 5, and especially when it is magnesium injections 12 felt better (80
less than 1, then Yates’ correction can per cent) whereas, of the 17 on placebo, (iv) (v) (vi)
be improved upon. In this case Fisher’s only three felt better (18 per cent).
Exact test, proposed in the mid-1930s There are 16 different ways of 3 12 4 11 5 10
almost simultaneously by Fisher, Irwin rearranging the cell frequencies for the
2
and Yates, can be applied. The null table whilst keeping the marginal totals
hypothesis for the test is that there is the same, as illustrated in figure 1 12 5 11 6 10 7
no association between the rows and (right). The result that corresponds to
columns of the 2 × 2 table, such that our observed cell frequencies is (xiii). (vii) (viii) (ix)
the probability of a subject being in a The general form of table 1 is given
particular row is not influenced by in table 2, and under the null 6 9 7 8 8 7
being in a particular column. If the hypothesis of no association Fisher
columns represent the study group showed that the probability of obtaining
and the rows represent the outcome, the frequencies a, b, c and d in table 2 is 9 8 8 9 7 10
then the null hypothesis could be
(a + b)!(c + d)!(a + c)!(b + d)!
interpreted as the probability of having (1) (x) (xi) (xii)
(a + b + c + d)!a!b!c!d!
a particular outcome not being
influenced by the study group, and the where x! is the product of all the
test evaluates whether the two study integers between 1 and x, e.g. 5! = 1 × 2
9 6 10 5 11 4
groups differ in the proportions with × 3 × 4 × 5 = 120 (note that for the
each outcome. purpose of this calculation, we define 0!
An important assumption for all of as 1). Thus for each of the results (i) to
6 11 5 12 4 13
the methods outlined, including (xvi) the exact probability of obtaining
(xiii) (xiv) (xv)
Fisher’s Exact test, is that the binary that result can be calculated (table 3).
data are independent. If the For example, the probability of
proportions are correlated then more obtaining (i) in figure 1 is 12 3 13 2 14 1
advanced techniques should be
15!17!15!17!
applied. For instance in the leg ulcer = 0.0000002.
example of the previous tutorial,1 if
32!0!15!15!2! 3 14 2 15 1 16
there were more than one leg ulcer per From table 3 we can see that the
patient, we could not treat the probability of obtaining the observed (xvi)
Illustration of all the different ways of
outcomes as independent. frequencies for our data is that which
15 0 rearranging cell frequencies in table 1,
The test is based upon calculating corresponds with (xiii), which gives P =
but with the marginal totals remaining
directly the probability of obtaining the 0.0005469 and the probability of the same.
results that we have shown (or results obtaining our results or results more
more extreme) if the null hypothesis is extreme (a difference that is at 0 17
actually true, using all possible 2 × 2 least as large) is the sum of the
M
SCOPE | JUNE 07 | 11
SCOPE | TUTORIAL
12 | JUNE 07 | SCOPE