Thomson 1995

HIGHWAY STORMWATER RUNOFF QUALITY: D E V E L O P M E N T OF
SURROGATE PARAMETER RELATIONSHIPS
N . R. T H O M S O N 1 , E. A . M C B E A N ~ , W. S N O D G R A S S 2 a n d I. B. M O N S T R E N K O l
i Department of Civil Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G I; ~-Ministry of
Transportation, Quality and Standards Division, Research and Development Branch, Downsview,
ON
(Received 19 June, 1995; accepted 22 January, 1996)
Abstract. The development of relationships for predicting the impact of highway stormwater runoff
is described. The predictive relationships are regression-based equations reflecting variations in the
magnitude of the constituents of interest. The objective is to identify a subset of constituents that can
be used as surrogates for the remaining constituents as a means of decreasing the costs of collection
and measurement of highway stormwater runoff quality data.
The Minnesota highway stormwater quality database complied in the late 1970's and early 1980's
is employed in identifying the set of surrogate parameters. The findings indicate that total suspended
solids, total dissolved solids, total volatile solids, and total organic carbon are effective surrogate
parameters for numerous metals, ionic species, and nutrients. The findings also indicated that the
developed ionic species constituent relationships are portable, while the metal and nutrient constituent
relationships were limited to urban sites with similar environmental conditions. The development of
these relationships represents a step towards remediating and preventing the problem of nonpoint
source highway pollution.
1. Introduction
Highway stormwater runoff is discontinuous in time, not concentrated at one spe-

cific location, and responsive to changes in climatic conditions, and hence is a
classic nonpoint pollutant source. The sources of the water quality constituents
found in highway stormwater runoff are varied and may be attributed to: traf-
fic deposition (e.g., tire wear, brake linings, and leakage of oil and lubricants),
dustfall from the surrounding environs, pavement wear (the breakdown of asphalt
and/or concrete surfaces), maintenance operations (e.g., application of deicing
compounds, pesticides and herbicides), accidental spills, and littering. Given the
attributes of this nonpoint source, it is not surprising to observe the high variability
of the many water quality constituents found in highway stormwater runoff. It is
this variability that hinders our ability to accurately predict these constituents from
site to site, or between runoff events at a single site. Nevertheless, the prediction
of constituents in highway stormwater runoff is a necessity for the planning and
assessment of proposed or existing highway corridors. To enable accurate predic-
tion of the various constituents, a comprehensive understanding of the constituents
of highway stormwater runoff, and more importantly, how these constituents vary
both temporally and spatially, is required.
The potential impact of highway stormwater runoff on receiving water bodies
(e.g., streams, lakes, wetlands) and groundwater aquifers is of concern. Figure 1
Water, Air, and Soil Pollution 94: 307-347, 1997.

(~) 1997 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.
308 N.R. THOMSON ET AL.
Figure 1. Schematic of two possible highway configurations: (a) rural highway, and (b) urban
highway.
indicates two schematics of possible highway configurations: a rural and an urban

highway. Figure l(a) represents a two-lane rural highway circling a lake and tra-
versing through a wetland area. Although a highway of this nature is generally
characterized by a low volume of traffic, there may, in fact, be an impact to both
the lake and wetland. In contrast to this rural highway, Figure 1(b) is a schematic
of a four-lane curbed urban highway with a center median. This type of highway
is generally characterized by a high volume of traffic and an extensive stormwater
drainage system which discharges runoff directly to a nearby stream. In an urban
HIGHWAY STORMWATER RUNOFF QUALITY 309
situation as depicted in Figure 1(b), the runoff from the highway has, in fact, been
concentrated at one particular discharge location in contrast to the rural highway.
In an attempt to quantify the concentration and/or loading of various stormwa-
ter quality constituents along a highway corridor, a highway stormwater runoff
sampling program is often implemented at various locations. Generally, for each
location or selected highway catchment the data are determined for a representative
set of events (i.e., to reflect seasonality and environmental variability); the accumu-
lated data typically include: rainfall rate, runoff rate, temperature, dustfall, traffic
counts, and the magnitude of a variety of water quality constituents. However, the
costs associated with monitoring and analysis quickly accumulate when determin-
ing the concentration of numerous constituents of concern at one location for a
single event. Hence, a desirable highway stormwater runoff sampling program is
one which would include only a specific set of constituents at a given location,
with the set of constituents being selected on the basis that they are both easy and
inexpensive for analysis. Then, since a wide range of constituents are of potential
concern, the selected set of constituents would be used to characterize the other con-
stituents of interest. Of interest is to identify whether a set of easily-measured water
quality parameters may be used as surrogates for other water quality parameters.
This paper describes the development of statistically-based surrogate parameter
relationships using data from a comprehensive highway stormwater sampling data
base compiled by the Minnesota Department of Transportation from 1976 through
1983. Of interest is whether a less complex and smaller data collection effort
for each runoff event is feasible, as a means of reducing the costs of constituent
monitoring over a series of events. The constituents typically found in highway
stormwater runoff are reviewed and existing data bases are identified. To provide
a perspective, an overview of documented surrogate relationships is provided.
The contents of the Minnesota data base are described and the methodology used
to develop a working data base is discussed. Finally, the results of the analyses
which examine the potential for variables useful in predicting organic constituents,
nutrient levels and trace metal concentrations are presented. The issue of portability
of the surrogate parameter relationships is explored by applying the developed
relationships to the remaining data contained in the Minnesota data base, and to
four additional sites with similar environmental conditions.
From a water quality impact perspective, the mass loading to the receiving
water body is of concern; however, to allow for the portability of stormwater
runoff quality characterization, the focus must be on constituent concentrations.
The portability for mass loading to other sites then exists following the estimation
of runoff quantities.
2. Background
2.1. CONSTITUENTS
Highway stormwater runoff contains numerous water quality constituents; some

of which are generated by the use and existence of the roadway (e.g., vehicular
traffic, materials used in highway construction, or maintenance practices), and
some that are the result of the surrounding land use (e.g., fertilizers and pollutants
associated with commercial zones) and transported to the highway drainage area
by atmospheric deposition. Most constituents are correlated to, and hence assumed
to be directly associated with, vehicular traffic volumes (Asplund et al., 1982).
However, Shaheen (1975) has shown that although they are correlated, less than
5 % of many of the solids originate directly from the vehicles themselves. Therefore,
the vehicular traffic acts as both a minor source and a transport mechanism for many
solids.
The solids in highway stormwater runoff are carriers for other sorbing con-
stituents. The source of these solids may be fine particulate dust from surrounding
areas, dust and dirt transported and blown about by vehicular traffic, or even by
maintenance practices such as the application of de-icing agents (i.e., sand/salt
mixtures). Solids (suspended) can play a major role in the fate of contaminants and
nutrients (Ongley et al., 1981). Nutrients such as total phosphorous may be trans-
ported via solids. The sources of phosphorus include: leaching from tree leaves
(peaks in fall and late spring), lawn fertilizer, atmospheric deposition, and auto-
mobile exhaust (Dorney, 1986). Tree leaves and fertilizers are also contributors to
nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus. Phosphorus and nitrogen-based nutri-
ents are difficult to predict due to their association with the solids (Ongley et al.,
1981) and their ability to infiltrate when exposed to permeable surfaces (Howie
and Waller, 1986).
Heavy metals and PAH's (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) are also highly
correlated and associated with particulates in highway stormwater runoff (Hoffman
et al., 1985; Herrmann, 1981 ; Hewitt and Rahsed, 1992; Oliver et al., 1974; Ongley
et al., 1981). A larger portion of these constituents is associated with the finer solid
fiaction, such as silts (Sartor et al., 1974). These smaller particulates are highly
sorbing with a large surface area to volume ratio, and are thought to be more
geochemically active (Ongley et al., 1981). Since the metals are associated with
suspended solids, they will be individually and discriminately removed at different
overland flow velocities (Pope et al., 1978). This makes the prediction of metals and
suspended solids more difficult on an event-to-event basis. The two most prevalent
heavy metals are lead and zinc (Sartor et al., 1974).
The source of the heavy metals vary. The source of lead is primarily due to
tailpipe emissions (Huntzicker et al., 1975; Christensen and Guinn, 1979; Hopke
et al., 1980) and is highly associated with the fine particulates (LaBarre et al.,
1973; Oliver et al., 1974; Hewitt and Rashed, 1992). Hewitt and Rashed (1992)
HIGHWAY STORMWATERRUNOFF QUALITY 311
cited that 90% of the lead was associated with the particulates and Oliver et al.
(1974) documented 99%. Lead may also accumulate in a snowpack. It is common
practice to plow and stockpile snow from highways; however, the snowmelt will
contain very little of the lead and the balance will remain in the melting stockpile
(LaBarre et al., 1973). This can result in highly lead-contaminated sediments.
Huntzicker et al. (1975) proportioned (mass balance) the lead input to vehicles, to
the various output fates. Of 23.7 g of lead input into a vehicle, 0.3 g evaporated,
5.8 g were retained within the automobile engine, 16.7 g ended up as an aerosol type
exhaust emission and 0.9 g ended up as a vapour-type exhaust emission. The use of
lead-based petroleum products is prohibited in many parts of North America, but is
still available in some regions, and is reported in many of the assembled highway
stormwater quality data bases collected to date.
Zinc is introduced into the environment from numerous sources. One of the most
significant contributors of zinc is from the wear of tires (Christensen and Guinn,
1979). Zinc can also be released into the environment, in a much smaller sense, by
brake linings, exhaust emissions (Hopke et al., 1980) and salting (Oberts, 1986).
Metals such as iron, barium and cesium are also associated with brake linings, and
antimony is associated with tires (Hopke et al., 1980). Iron can also be added to the
environment from the deterioration of vehicles. Hedley and Lockley (1975) could
only account for 30 percent of the material in highway stormwater (using salting
and atmospheric fall-out estimates) and hypothesized that the remainder must be
from the corrosion and wear of the vehicles.
Chlorides are also very dominant in highway stormwater runoff primarily in
the winter months. The main source of chlorides is due to road salt applications.
Oliver et al. (1974) concluded that all chloride in the winter months was from
salting. The application of de-icing materials to the road surface is not exclusively
the addition of salt. Sand is also added which will affect the total suspended solids
(TSS) loading; however, the ratio of sand to salt does not affect the TSS loading in
the stormwater runoff (Oberts, 1986). Oberts (1986) noted that TSS concentration
is dependent on the nature of the sand, and not the sand-to-salt ratio.
2.2. SAMPLING METHODOLOGY AND EXISTING DATABASES
Two methods are in general use to collect water quality samples from highway
stormwater runoff: discrete samples, and composite samples. Discrete samples are
grab samples taken from the runoff at discrete points in time, while composite
samples are developed from a flow-weighted procedure. The constituent concen-
trations determined from a composite sample are called event mean concentrations
(EMCs). Thus, the EMC represents the concentration that would result if the entire
storm event discharge were collected in a container (Shelley et al., 1987). When the
EMC is multiplied by the total runoff volume of the associated event, the resulting
product represents the total constituent mass discharged for that event.
The discrete samples provide information on extreme values as well as the

temporal variation of runoff constituents during a runoff event. On the other hand,
the composite samples provide a good representation of a given event and therefore
are generally used to compare constituent concentrations between events. The
EMCs will be the focus of the surrogate parameter relationships developed in this
paper.
Table I(a) identifies some of the major highway stormwater quality data bases
that have been assembled in North America, while Table I(b) identifies similar data
bases from Britain, and Germany.
2.3. D O C U M E N T E D SURROGATE RELATIONSHIPS
Given the two alternative methods to collect water quality samples (discrete samples
and composite samples), they can be used to determine within e v e n t characteristics
or b e t w e e n e v e n t characteristics. The discrete samples can only be used to determine
within event characteristics because a sample at a random, discrete point-in-time
in a given runoff event, may not be representative of the event; hence the EMC
best characterizes the entire runoff event. Many of the data bases in Tables I(a)
and (b) were combined and re-analyzed by numerous authors (e.g., Gupta et al.,
1981; Kobriger and Geinopolos, 1984; Driscoll et al., 1990) for the development
of between-site models. The models described in this section provide an overview
of some attempts to extensively analyze these data bases.
An extensive b e t w e e n e v e n t characterization model was developed by Kobriger
et al. (1981) using data from five sites. Two sites from the Milwaukee data set,
one from the Pennsylvania data set, the Denver data set, and the Nashville data set
were used. These sites were split into one of the three following types: completely
impervious drainage area (e.g., bridge deck), urban type with curb and gutter, and
rural type with grass ditches. For each type, four steps each involving regression-
based models were employed to characterize the constituent loading during an
event. Each constituent loading was based on the total solids (TS) loading, with the
TS loading characterized as a wash-off type model. The predictive capability and
percent variation explained for each model was not reported, nor was the range of
applicability for each parameter in the model.
Kerri et al. (1985) used the three California data sets to develop two forms
of a regression-based model. The first form considered the total vehicular traffic
during the storm to predict the constituent load for an event, while the second
form employed the average daily traffic to predict the constituent load for an event.
There were no values for the coefficient of determination (7.2) reported for each
tbrm, simply that the equation constants (slope and intercept) were significant at
a 5% significance level. Therefore the predictive power (accuracy) of the model is
not certain.
Mar and Homer (1982) developed a model for the Pacific Northwest (Wash-
ington State). Constituent loadings were determined from the product of the total
Table I(a)
Water quality databases - North America
State City Highway # o f events Area(ha) %Imp] # o f lanes Type ADT 2 Source
Minnesota St. Paul 1-94 112 6.60 50 6 urban 65 000 Howard (1981a)
Minneapolis 1-494 53 142.4 31 6 urban 82 000 Howard (1981b)
St. Paul 1-694 40 6.64 20 4 rural ~42 000 Howard (1988)
Minneapolis 1-94 211 8.51 55 10 urban ~114 000 Moxness (1986)
Wisconsin Milwaukee 1-94 139 3.1 64 8 urban 116 000 Gupta et al. (1981) ,..v
Milwaukee4 1-94 13 1.1 0 8 urban 116 000 Gupta etal. (1981) ,..v
Milwaukee 1-794 35 0.85 100 8 urban 53 000 Gupta etal. (1981)
Milwaukee Hwy. 45 29 42.9 31 6 urban 85 000 Gupta etal. (1981)
Milwaukee4 Hwy. 45 17 1.01 0 6 urban 85 000 Gupta et al. (1981) 9
Colorado Denver 1-25 16 14.3 37 10 urban 149 000 Gupta et al. (1981)
Pennsylvania Harrisburg (phase 1) 1-81 25 7.5 27 6 urban 24 000 Kobriger and Geinoplos (1984)
Harrisburg (phase 2) I-81 21 1.1 45 4 urban 28 0003 Kobriger and Geinoplos (1984)
Harrisburg (phase 2) 4 1-81 5 0.71 0 4 rural 27 800 Kobriger and Geinoplos (1984)
North Efland 1-85 38 1.01 51 4 rural 25 000 Kobriger and Geinoplos (1984)
9z
Iowa Ames 1-35 7 0.69 49 2 rural 12 600 Driscoll et al. (1990)
Ames 1-35 2 0.76 49 2 rural 12 600 Driscoll et al. (1990) ,o
Washington Seattle I-5 97 0.49 100 8 urban 53 0003 Mar and Homer (1982)
Seattle SR-520 37 0.04 100 4 urban 42 0003 Mar and Homer (1982) -.I
Spokane 1-90 12 0.09 100 6 urban 17 5003 Mar and Homer (1982)
Vancouver 1-205 93 0.11 100 6 urban 8 6003 Mar and Homer (1982)
Snoqualimie Pass 1-90 32 0.07 100 6 rural 7 5003 Mar and Homer (1982)
Montsano SR- 12 27 0.11 100 2 rural 7 300 Mar and Homer (1982)
Pasco SR-12 39 0.51 100 4 rural 2 0003 Mar and Homer (1982)
Pullman SR-270E 5 0.10 100 2 rural 2 5003 Mar and Homer (1982)
Pullman SR-270W 39 0.10 100 2 rural 2 5003 Mar and Homer (1982)
Pullman 4 SR-270E 10 0.12 100 2 rural 2 5003 Mar and Homer (1982)
Table I(a) ( C o n t i n u e d ) . .
State City Highway # of events Area (ha) %Imp.l # of lanes Type ADT 2 Source
California Sacramento Hwy. 50 34 0.81 82 8 urban 85 900 Racin et al. (1982)

Los Angeles 1-405 7 1.3 100 8 urban 200 000 Racin et al. (1982)
Walnut Creek 1-680 10 0.85 100 6 urban 70 000 Racin et al. (1982)
Tennessee Nashville 1-40 31 22.5 37 6 urban 88 000 Gupta e t a l . (1981)
Hamilton County SR-27 26 0.03 100 4 rural 41 180 Gupta et al. (1981)
Arkansas Little Rock 1-30 21 0.61 90 4 urban 42 000 Driscoll et al. (1990)
Florida Broward County Hwy. 384 40 23.6 36 6 urban 20 000 Hardee et al. (1978)
Broward County 5 Hwy. 441 12 - - 4 urban 39 000 Howie and Waller (1986)
Broward County s Hwy. 441 and 12 - - 4 urban 20 000 Howie and Waller (1986)
Pembroke Rd.
7~
Gainesville SR-24 6 29.5 - 4 urban 17 000 Driscoll et al. (1990) .H
Miami 1-95 5 0.58 100 6 urban 70 0003 Driscoll et al. (1990) 0
Rhode Cranston 1-95 4 44.8 - - - I01 500 Hoffman et al. (1985) r.~
o
z
TABLE I(b): Water quality databases - British and German
State City Highway # of events Area (ha) %Imp. I # of lanes Type ADT 2 Source
England London Hwy. 22 34 0.05 - - urban - Ellis et al. (1987)

London M6 Motorway 20 8.54 65 6 rural 37 600 Hewitt and Rashed (1992)
Germany Pleidelsheim A81 - 1.3 100 - - 41 000 Stotz (1987)
Obereisesheim A6 - 2.52 85.7 - - 47 000 Stotz (1987)
Ulm/West A8/BI0 - 25 39.6 - - 52.100 Stotz (1987)
Denotes the percent of the catchment area that is considered impervious.

2 Denotes average daily traffic.
3 Denotes traffic data in only one direction (total ADT can be estimated by multiplying by 2).
4 Denotes an adjacent grassy area data collection not subject to direct highway runoff.
s Denotes the database also contains subsurface data.
suspended solids loading and a proportionality constant. A separate proportionality

constant was determined for each constituent through a linear regression using the
average daily traffic (ADT). The TS loading was based on the type of highway
cross-section, the mass of TSS per highway mile, and the number of vehicles dur-
ing an event. The coefficient of determination was reported for each proportionality
constant.
The regression model developed by Driscoll et al. (1990) is based on runoff
data from 31 monitored sites in 11 states. An EMC was determined using a linear
regression analysis and the ADT count as the dependant variable. Predictive models
for TSS, copper and lead were not included because the correlation between these
parameters and ADT was poor. The sites used in the model were all urban. Driscoll
et al. (1990) noted that the rural sites were unsuitable for this type of analysis.
The model developed by Ellis et al. (1986) predicted the total load similar
to those developed by Kobriger et al. (1981), but employed a one-step multiple
linear regression using event and runoff parameters, thus reflecting the variability
of each event. The percent variation explained by each constituent model was very
high (0.86 to 0.99) except for copper (0.74). This model was also one of the few
models that reported the antecedent dry period as a significant predictor variable.
The authors also note that the antecedent dry period was not significant when using
the EMCs but significant when using the accumulated mass loads in the regression
analyses.
3. Minnesota Data Base
The Minnesota data base was selected for use in this study since it contains an
extensive amount of EMC and discrete sampling data from over 400 monitored
events. For each EMC or discrete sample a maximum of 57 water quality parameters
may have been reported. In addition, numerous related parameters (e.g., flow rate,
accumulated rain, number of previous dry days, and traffic density) were also
reported. The Minnesota study was conducted in four phases over a seven (7) year
period at four (4) different sites, and therefore is not biased to only one year. Each
site was associated with a different phase of the study. The study was also not biased
to a few select months, as the program sampled throughout the year (winter, spring,
summer and fall). This allows comparison of seasonality traits and runoff event
types (rain, snowmelt, and mixed snow and rain). The four study sites or phases
represented a variety of highway types where different attenuation capabilities
and contaminant distributions were possible. Two highway sites were medium-
sized urban highways (Phase 1 and Phase 2); another was a large urban highway
(Phase 4), and the last was a divided rural highway (Phase 3). The characteristics
of the four sites of the Minnesota data base are summarized in Table If. The annual
precipitation for this region is 630 ram/year.
316 N. R. THOMSON ET AL.
Table II
Physical site characteristics
Characteristic Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4
Highway 1-94, 1-494, 1-694, 1-94,

St. Paul Minneapolis St. Paul Minneapolis
Type Urban Urban Rural Urban
Number of lanes 6 6 4 10
Average daily traffic 65 000 82 000 42 000 a 114 000 b
Area in hectares 6.60 (16.3) 142.4 (352) 6.64 (16.4) 8.50 (21.0)
(acres)
% Impervious 50% 31% 20% 55%
Surface type Bituminous Concrete Concrete Concrete
Shoulders Bituminous Bituminous Full Bituminous Full Bituminous
Median Concrete Concrete Grass Concrete
Curbs Curb and gutter Curb and gutter Grass ditches Curb and gutter
Grass ditches
a Estimated from yearly traffic data.

b Estimated from traffic count data.
The largest and most comprehensive phase of the Minnesota study was the
Phase 4 data collection effort, and therefore the data associated with this phase
was used in the development of a set of surrogate parameter relationships. The data
associated with the other three phases of the Minnesota study are used to investigate
the portability of the developed relationships.
The raw data base was obtained from the Minnesota Department of Transporta-
tion. The data were all hand-entered in ASCII format files by personnel within the
Minnesota Department of Transportation and required approximately 6.2 mb of
storage space. Given these data, special computational algorithms were developed
to detect errors, and to extract pertinent information. A preliminary analysis and
partial visual inspection of the data revealed obvious input errors (e.g., missing
data for flow start times and stop times produced errors that had to be corrected
before the various characteristics of the data base could be investigated). The result
of this effort produced a corrected data base for each study phase. This was the
first step in the development of a working data base.
3.1. PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS
The Phase 1 study site (Howard, 1981 a) was located on a six (6) lane section of 1-94
and consisted of a small catchment of only 6.60 ha (16.3 acres). The surrounding
land use was primarily residential with some commercial lots. The highway was
constructed using a bituminous asphalt surface with a curb and gutter stormwater
collection system where one-half the cross section was elevated (fill) and the
other one-half depressed (cut). The depressed section had very little attenuation
opportunity for runoff after the runoff left the highway. The stormwater from the
elevated section was also directly collected by the storm sewer system.
The Phase 2 study area (Howard, 198 lb) was located on a six (6) lane section of
1-494 and consisted of a concrete-paved, 6.4 km long (4 miles), large catchment area
encompassing elevated and depressed sections, ramps, and grass ditches. Due to the
size of this study area, the surrounding land uses, natural attenuation capabilities
and pollution sources may vary significantly. The area is primarily urban in nature
( ~ 7 5 % of the contributing area) with the discharge or collection area (the remaining
25% of the contributing area) being rural in nature (i.e., outskirts). The large area,
surfaces contacted, and the variable paths for the stormwater runoff, introduce
additional spatial variations and uncertainties in stormwater runoff quality due to
varying rainfall-runoff relationships (varying attenuation, infiltration, evaporation,
etc. over a large spatial area). The stormwater is collected in storm sewer inlets for
both the roadway and the ditches. The attenuation capabilities of the stormwater
resulting from rain falling directly on the travelled surfaces (pure highway runoff)
are limited due to the sewer collection design. The collection system consists of a
curb and gutter median throughout the length of the freeway, curb and gutter on
the outside shoulders and ramps, and bevelled culvert inlets in the grass ditches.
The Phase 3 study area (Howard, 1988) was located on 1-694 and consisted
of a small catchment of only 6.64 ha (16.4 acres). This catchment was unique
for the Minnesota Data Set in that there was the potential for natural attenuation
(e.g., infiltration, sorption, and sedimentation) in the medians and ditches prior
to the point at which the water quality data were collected. The study area was
a divided highway with a grass median and grass ditches used as the stormwater
collection system. A curb and gutter system was only used on the 'on and off'
ramps (3 ramps). The surrounding area was mostly undeveloped which resulted
in an impervious area of only 20%. The road surface was concrete with rounded
bituminous shoulders.
The catchment area associated with the Phase 4 data collection effort (Moxness,
1986) is located in north Minneapolis and is comprised of a 900 m length of
depressed 10 lane highway (I-94) situated between two crest curves. The ADT
for this portion of 1-94 is 114 000 vehicles/day. The road surface is concrete,
the shoulders are bituminous, and a concrete barrier separates traffic flow in each
direction. The outside curbs are of D4 type with approximately 17 m of grassed
bank extending from the curb to the right-of-way. Construction of this portion of
1-94 was completed in 1981. The surrounding land use consists of a mix of single
family homes, apartments, commercial and light industrial. The total area of the
catchment is 8.50 ha, with 3.82 ha pervious and 4.68 ha impervious. All of the
pervious area is associated with the grass berms which stretch from the curbs to
the edge of the highway right-of-way. Based on a rainfall-runoff analysis of data
analyzed as part of this study, the average runoff coefficient for this catchment is
0.3. A dedicated storm sewer network services the catchment area and consists
of a main collection trunk line and 12 lateral collection lines that collect surface
318 N. R. THOMSONET AL.
Table III
Summary of monitored runoff events
Number of Numberof Numberof Number of

Phase events rainfall events snowmeltevents mixedevents
Phase 1 112 66 (1648.30)a 41(450.1) 5 (171.5)
Phase 2 53 35 (1516.27) 12 (495.1) 6 (599.6)
Phase 3 40 29 (518.24) 7 (166.7) 4 (175.4)
Phase 4 21 ! 134 (1049.73) 47 (503.38) 30 (492.31)
a The first number in brackets indicates the number of discrete samples, while
the second number indicates the number of EMC samples.
drainage from catch basins located along the median and gutters. The runoff quality
sampling location was located at a point along the main collection trunk line as it
exits the study area.
The physical characteristics or attributes of the four sites are difficult to quantify
in numerical terms; however, one clear approach is to separate the sites into a rural
or urban category. The drainage area associated with the Phase 3 sampling program
is significantly different (physically) than the drainage area for Phases 1, 2 and 4
sites. It was the only site with a grassed centre median and grass ditches without
a curb and gutter collection system. This site and the surrounding area would
typically be classified as rural, whereas the other three sites would be classified as
urban.
3.2. RUNOFFAND CONSTITUENTCHARACTERISTICS
Each runoff event was categorized as either a rainfall event, a snowmelt event,
or a mixed (rainfall and snowmelt) event. Table III summarizes the total number
of runoff events monitored for each site. Figure 2 presents a histogram of the
observed runoff flow volumes and durations for the Phase 4 data. The distribution
of runoff volumes is skewed to the right and appears to be exponential in nature.
Approximately 86% of the events produced less than 5 mm (0.2 in.) of runoff.
The number of events with flow volume data was approximately 48% of the total
number of events in the Phase 4 data set. The duration of the runoff is important to
characterize the length of time that the stormwater is in the drainage area prior to
the monitored outfall. Based on the 108 events with an observed runoff duration,
69% o f these events had a runoff duration of less than 4 h.
Table IV presents the statistics of the raw data for some of the 57 constituents
measured during the Phase 4 data collection effort. To provide an indication of the
variability of EMCs for a given event type and between event types, the frequency
histograms for TSS are shown in Figure 3 for the Phase 4 data. The mean TSS
concentration in the runoff for the rainfall events, the snowmelt events, and the
mixed events is 100.3 mg/L, 131.6 mg/L, and 137.7 mg/L, respectively. The runoff
Table IV
Phase 4 event mean concentration statistics
Measured Number of Standard Minimum Maximum Number of

parameter Units observations Mean deviation value value non-detects
Kjeldahl mg/L 121 1.77 1.34 0.35 6.7 0

NO2 + NO3 mg/L 98 0.725 0.875 0.08 5 0
Total nitrogen mg/L 98 2.39 1.67 0.6 8.14 0
Chloride mg/L 138 1802.1 5950.9 0.96 46000 0
'-v
Sulphate mg/L 96 44.59 85.85 5 650 0
Sodium mg/L 98 3033.3 9727.2 2.23 67000 0 ,'v,
R-Silica mg/L 90 6.93 6.68 0.56 60 0

Total phosphorus mg/L 136 0.562 0.810 0.06 7.8 0
,-..]
BOD5 mg/L 84 12.6 10.48 1 60 0 9
COD mg/L 135 207.0 471.87 2 3380 0
TOC mgFL 136 25.45 22.61 4.5 141 0
TSS mg/L 138 118.26 143.91 8 950 0 t"rl
TDS mg/L 138 3168.7 10440.3 22 81700 0
TVS mg/L 123 149.39 268.95 0.5 2300 0 C
TS mg/L 138 3287 10440.3 47 81728 0 9z

"r'l
Chromium #g/L 136 13.07 16.46 1.5 110 0
Copper #g/L 136 46.51 77.57 3 780 2
Iron #g/L 136 4161.8 5546.9 180 45000 0 t'-
Lead #g/L 136 207.3 297.72 11 2100 0 ,.<

Zinc #g/L 136 173.9 172.6 10 1200 2
Nickel #g/L 136 10.42 9.94 1 57 5
Cadmium /~g/L 136 1.731 1.99 0.17 12 0
Mercury #g/L 120 0.492 0.697 0.076 5.6 12
Aluminum #g/L 98 2693.7 2923.4 30 14000 0
Arsenic /zg/L 97 19.25 58.01 0.1 340 41
Turbidity NTU 133 49.28 65.83 5.2 400 -
pH - 128 7.77 0.446 6.9 9.3 0
Conductivity umhos/cm 124 4634 13892.4 25 110000 -
Figure 2. Histogram of (a) runoff flow volume (25.4 mm = 1 inch), and (b) runoff flow duration for
the Phase 4 data.
from the snowmelt and the mixed events contain higher levels of TSS than the
runoff from just rainfall events most likely due to de-icing practices.
As a result of the various analytical procedures employed over the course of
this data collection effort, different minimum detection levels were used for the
same constituent (see Howard, 1981 a,b and 1988; and Moxness, 1986 for details).
HIGHWAYSTORMWATERRUNOFFQUALITY 321
2O
2_5
0
22
o
10
w
g4
if_2
0
Figure 3. Histogram of Phase 4 TSS EMC in mg/L for (a) rainfall events, (b) snowmelt events, and
(c) mixed events.
In particular, lead, manganese and arsenic concentration data contained a number

of non-detects for the Phase 3 site, while only arsenic concentration data posed
a non-detect problem for the Phase 4 site (41 observations out of a possible 97
observations were reported as non-detect). The elimination of these points would
bias the mean; however, a regression analyses should not be seriously affected by
their removal since there still exists a large number data for use in the analyses.
Constituent seasonality is important in assessing the need to segregate the
data into groups where the mean and variance indicate that the groups are from
different populations. One way to look for seasonality is to construct a time series
to visualize trends and patterns that may correspond to the time of year. Four
constituents (TSS, total dissolved solids (TDS), total organic carbon (TOC), and
zinc) were selected as representative constituents for investigation for the Phase 4
322 N.R. THOMSONET AL.
1 I MIXTURE
#140
'PE 2
OF EVENT
TYPES,
F•NT
0.9 [ TYPE3 TYPE 2 TYPE 1 ' TYPES 2 & 3 ' TYPE 1
.', i%
%
SOME TYPE 1
0.8
~,0.6
.,~ '~ 0.5
~"~0.3 i
t
0.2
1
I
0.1
i i I i
02-Aug-81 18-Feb-82 06-Sep-82 25-Mar-83 11-Oct-83

Date
Figure 4. Time series of TSS EMCs in mg/L for the Phase 4 data (type 1 indicates rainfall events,
type 2 indicates snowmelt events, and type 3 indicates mixed events).
site. Figure 4 presents the time series of the EMC for TSS over the course of this
data collection effort. Based on a visual inspection of Figure 4, the time of year or
event type does not seem to affect the TSS EMC, although the variability is high
for all event types. The mean for rainfall events, snowmelt events and mixed events
were 91.1, 131.7 and 142.8 mg/L respectively, while the standard deviations were
106.0, 164.2 and 138.1 mg/L for rainfall events, snowmelt events, and mixed events
respectively. There were no statistically significant differences between the means
for the various event types for TSS, TOC, and zinc; the highest t-statistic was equal
1.82 for differences between rainfall events and snowmelt events for TSS (tcrit,oo
= 1.96 at a 5% level of significance). Seasonality was evident in the EMCs of TDS
due to road-salting practices during the snowmelt and mixed runoff events. This
may indicate that TDS-correlated constituents may also be seasonal in nature.
4. Towards a Working Phase 4 Data Base
The next concern is to determine the potential surrogate variables useful in pre-
dicting pollutant concentrations of organics, nutrients and trace metals. As stated
previously, a corrected Phase 4 data base was developed after some preliminary
statistical analyses were undertaken to identify obvious input errors. A working
data base was compiled after correlations, trends, and residuals of a regression
analyses were studied. The analyses adopted to develop this working data base are
outlined here. The foci of the statistical analyses were on constituents that fell into
the following four categories:
1) Solids -+ (TSS, TDS, total volatile solids (TVS))

2) Organics --+ (TOC, 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BODs), chemical
oxygen demand (COD))
3) Nutrients --+ (Total PO4, Total N, Combined N (NO2 + NO3), Kjeldahl N)
4) Ionic Species and Metals --+ (C1, SO4, Na, As, A1, Cd, Ni, Zn, Pb, Fe, Cu, Cr)
To explore inter-constituent correlations, correlation matrices for both the con-

stituents and the log-transformed constituents were constructed from all the avail-
able data from the 211 monitored events. The constituent correlation matrix is
presented in Figure 5. Those constituents with a correlation coefficient (i-) greater
than 0.5 are highlighted as an aid in identifying trends and correlation consisten-
cies between the various constituents in the data base. From the correlation matrix
presented in Figure 5, the metals appear to be correlated with TSS (e.g., TSS-iron r
= 0.77, TSS-lead r = 0.71, TSS-zinc r = 0.78), the ionic species are correlated with
TDS (e.g., TDS-chloride 1 = 0.99, TDS-sulphate r = 0.87, TDS-sodium r = 0.75),
nitrogen is correlated with TDS and TOC (e.g., TDS-total N r = 0.51, TOC-total N
r = 0.53), and phosphorous is correlated with TVS (TVS-Total P r = 0.73). Arsenic
was not correlated to TSS (r = -0.1), but rather with TDS (r = 0.78) which is
not surprising since arsenic is not highly sorbing. The log-transformed constituent
correlation matrix yielded slightly higher correlation coefficients (r) for nearly all
of the inter-constituent relationships.
These correlations suggest that TSS might be used as a predictor for some
metals, and that TDS might be used to predict some dissolved ionic species. The
high TDS-chloride and TDS-sodium correlations may be directly attributable to
road salting applications; however, a detailed salting record associated with each
event is not available.
As apparent from the correlation matrix in Figure 5, the correlation coefficients
for TSS, TDS, TOC and TVS do not display significant inter-parameter correlations
(the highest being TSS and TOC --+ r = 0.535); therefore, they have the potential to
be used in multiple regression analyses as independent variables. Due to the min-
imal inter-parameter correlations between these parameters, it was hypothesized
that the chemical proportioning or state of each contaminant could be associat-
ed with, and predicted with TOC and each solid fraction predictor variable. For
example, a metal may be primarily associated with the solid fraction, but will be in
equilibrium with the dissolved phase. Therefore, it may be that the concentration
of this metal in the stormwater runoff is attributed to (or influenced by) both the
suspended and dissolved phases. A multiple regression using each solid fraction
could potentially be an indirect and easy solution to a complex water chemistry
problem due to the influence or interaction of other constituents.
I-o
4~
0
~t
0
Z
>.
Figure 5. Correlation matrix for Phase 4 EMCs.

4.1. SIMPLE REGRESSION ANALYSES
A series of simple regression analyses using linear, log and power models were
conducted using only TSS, TDS, TVS, and TOC as independent predictor variables
of the constituents of interest. The purpose of these analyses was to determine the
most appropriate model, and to identify outliers. The regression analyses were per-
formed using the SYSTAT package (SYSTAT Inc., Evanston, I1.). The validity or
goodness-of-fit of each model developed was assessed using the following meth-
ods: the coefficient of determination (r2), scatter plots, residual statistics, Cook's
distance, and leverage. An analysis of residual statistics provides information on
the ith dependent observation (Yi) and the predicted variable @i). Large differ-
ences (Yi - ~li) indicate that the dependent observation does not follow the trend
of the model. Cook's distance examines the influence of the ith observation on the
coefficients of the regression, while leverage is a measure of the distance between
the ith observation of the independent variables and the mean of the independent
variables. Since each method identifies different problems with the data, all five
methods were used to determine the most appropriate model and outliers (i.e.,
manual input errors, instrumentation malfunctions, laboratory mistakes, etc.).
The constituents (dependent variables) investigated in this simple regression
analyses were Cr, Cu, Fe, Pb, Zn, Ni, Cd, A1 (as TSS correlated parameters); C1, As,
SO4, Na, total nitrogen, COD (as TDS correlated parameters); Kjeldahl, combined,
and total nitrogen (as TOC correlated parameters); and total phosphorous (as a
TVS-correlated parameter). These correlations (TSS-metals, TDS-ionic species,
TVS-nutrients) were investigated not only because they had the highest correlations
(see Figure 5), but also because it is strongly suspected that the metals are directly
related with the suspended matter, and the ionic contaminants with the dissolved
matter.
The overall results of the linear regression analyses demonstrated that the TDS
was able to explain much of the observed variance for chloride (r 2 = 0.99), sulphate
(r 2 = 0.75), arsenic (9"2 = 0.60), sodium (7`2 = 0 . 5 5 ) and COD (7`2 = 0.60). The TDS
was determined to be a poor predictor for total nitrogen (r 2 = 0.25). The TOC was
also unsuccessful in predicting total nitrogen (7`2 = 0.27) and NO2 + NO3 (7`2 = 0.05).
Therefore, it appears that the nitrogen related constituents are difficult to predict
using either the TDS or TOC. The TSS linear regression models demonstrated
marginal predictability with over one-half of the variance u n e x p l a i n e d (except for
iron (7`2 = 0 . 5 9 ) and zinc (7`2 = 0.61)); however, there were a few very high residuals
and Cook's distance values.
The log relationships did not explain as much of the variance (as measured
by r 2) as the linear relationships. The only models to demonstrate an improve-
ment was the aluminum-log TSS model and the various nitrogen models; however,
these improvements were minimal. Thus a log relationship was not considered
an improvement over the linear model for the constituents investigated. However
useful information was gained with the log relationship results; the residual statis-
326 N . R . T H O M S O N ET AL.
tics from the analyses of the log relationship identified the same data as possible
outliers.
A multiple regression analysis could improve the variance explained by the
simple linear regression models by relating and identifying possible contaminant
equilibria between the suspended, dissolved and volatile solid fractions, Both a
multiple linear regression model and a multiple power regression model were
investigated. The percent variation explained increased by at least 10% using the
multiple linear regression model. Many of the high residual events were repetitive
and consistent with those identified using the simple linear regression models. The
percent variation explained by the multiple power regression models was similar
to the multiple linear regression models.
The EMC values from events that were persistently identified as outliers in these
analyses were removed from the corrected data base to create a working data base.
Before each EMC was eliminated, the impacts on the various relationships were
assessed. A total of 18 EMC outliers were identified: three for TSS, one for TDS,
six for nickel, four for aluminum, three for chromium, and one for copper.
5. Surrogate Parameter Relationships
With a completed working data base assembled, all the simple and multiple regres-
sion relationships were re-analyzed. The selection of the best model for each
constituent investigated included subjective analysesof the r 2, s c a t t e r plots, and
residuals for each relationship. In selecting the best model, a repeated elimination
and re-substitution of the independent variables into a multiple regression anafy-
ses was undertaken, similar to a stepwise regression analysis. The criteria for the
elimination and re-substitution procedure was: (1) to use only logical independent
variables, (2) keep the models parsimonious, (3) maximize the variance explained
(r2), and (4) ensure that the regression constants are statistically significant. As
a result of this selection process, the following surrogate parameter relationships
were determined:
Metals:
Chromium (#g/L) = 0.0879(TSS) + 0.000236(TDS) r 2 = 0.764
Copper (#g/L) = 9.49 + 0.248(TSS) r 2 = 0.634
Iron (,ug/L) = 36.8(TSS) - 0.0638(TDS) r e = 0.846
Lead (/,g/L) = 1.72(TSS) - 0.00286(TDS) r 2 = 0s
Zinc (#g/L) = 1.00(TSS)- 0.00216(TDS)+2.06(TOC) r 2 = 0.910
Nickel (F,g/L) = 2,12 + 0.0488(TSS) + 0,0653(TOC) 7-.2 = 0,727
Cadmium (~,g/L) = 0.00930(TSS) + 0.000114(TDS) r: = 0.822
Aluminum (#g/L) = 29.7(TSS) - 0.0620(TDS) r e = 0.790
Arsenic (#g/L) = 0.00541(TDS) r 2 = 0.808
Ionic Species:
C h l o r i d e (rag/L) = 0.575(TDS) r 2 = 0.996
S u l p h a t e (rag /L) = 0.00837(TDS) + 0.741(TOC) r 2 = 0.726
Sodium (mg/L) = 0.652(TDS) r 2 = 0.501
Nutrients
Kjeldahl (rag/L) = 0.00120(TVS) + 0.0556(TOC) r 2 = 0.836
Total N (rag /L) = 2.05 + 0 . 0 0 0 0 8 7 0 ( T D S ) r 2 = 0.237
NO2 + NO3 ( m g / L ) =-0.0000217(TDS) + 0.0325(TOC) r 2 = 0.498
Total P ( m g / L ) = 0.00292(TVS) + 0.00106(TSS) r 2 = 0.777
COD (mg/L) = 0 . 0 4 7 9 ( T D S ) - 0 . 3 4 4 ( T S S ) + 4.21(TOC) r 2 = 0.816
where the units for TSS, TDS, TVS and TOC are mg/L. All coefficients in these
models were determined to be statistically significant at the 5% level of significance.
For the TSS-metal relationships, the percent variation explained by the regres-
sion equations ranged from 63% for copper, to 91% for zinc. For the TDS-ionic
species relationships, the percent variation explained ranged from 50% for sodium,
to 99.6% for chloride. Through the careful identification and elimination of outliers,
and by combining the TSS, TDS, TVS, and TOC into a multiple regression model,
the percent variation explained improved (over the simple linear regression models)
by over 20% for some constituents. Clearly these findings demonstrate that a set
of physically-based surrogate parameters can be identified, and statistically-based
predictive relationships can be developed.
6. Portability
Of interest is the degree to which the developed surrogate parameter relationships

are applicable to the prediction of constituents at sites other than those for which
the relationships were derived. One possible situation is that constituent levels
may not be dependent on the physical characteristics of the drainage area which
then would allow for the portability of the developed relationships. If this is the
case, then the developed relationships can be applied to many sites and can be
considered to be portable. However, natural attenuation characteristics and physical
drainage area differences may result in numerical changes in the model coefficients.
Hence the model coefficients may be related to the physical characteristics of the
respective drainage areas. In some situations, the general form of the relationship
(i.e., predictor variables used) may also change, and any relationship between
the model coefficients at different sites would then be irrelevant. Therefore, it is
important to determine the nature of the portability of the developed surrogate
parameter models.
Two aspects of this portability concern, referred to as near-site and far-site
portability, are investigated. Near-site portability deals with the portability of the
developed surrogate parameter relationships to sites located in close geographical
proximity to the site used to develop the relationships. At these sites the environ-
mental differences and road maintenance practices are considered to be minimal.
Far-site portability addresses the application of the developed relationships to sites

where considerable meteorological and geographical differences prevail.
6.1. NEAR-SITE PORTABILITY
The remaining three sites (Phase l, Phase 2 and Phase 3) within the Minnesota
data base allows for the opportunity to investigate near-site portability in a situation
where all the sites involved are close, the road maintenance practices are similar,
and the data collection approach was nearly identical.
Correlation matrices containing the various constituents of interest were deter-
mined for the corrected data from the Phase 1 site, the Phase 2 site and the Phase 3
site to confirm the inter-constituent correlations that were apparent in the data from
the Phase 4 site. The identification of consistently high inter-constituent correla-
tions between constituents and surrogate parameters, will increase the confidence
of the portability of the proposed surrogate parameter relationships. The correlation
matrices indicated a strong correlation between TSS and metals, TDS and some
ionic constituents, and TOC and TVS and some nutrients. The only notable excep-
tion to the consistent trend across the four sites was the lack of correlation between
TSS and metals for the data from the Phase 3 site. For example, the TSS-zinc
correlation coefficient for the Phase 3 site data was 0.14, compared to 0.67, 0.84,
and 0.78 for the data from the Phase 1, Phase 2, and Phase 4 site data respectively.
This may be due to the attenuation characteristics of the grassed areas which are
characteristic of the drainage area associated with the Phase 3 site. Therefore the
developed metal surrogate parameter relationships may not be applicable to this
site since the correlation between TSS and metals is weak.
The TSS, TDS, TVS and TOC corrected data for each site was used in con-
junction with the respective predictive model. The predicted EMC levels were then
compared to the corresponding corrected EMC data to observe if these relationships
were portable. Figures 6 through 11 present the predicted EMC versus corrected
EMC data for a few selected constituents for each site. Based on these figures,
the following can be concluded about the near-site portability of the developed
surrogate parameter relationships:
(i) the ionic species constituent relationships (e.g., chloride and sodium) demon-
strated good portability potential to all three sites; however, the slope of these
relationships (especially in the case of sodium) appears to be slightly different.
(ii) the metal constituent relationships (e.g., zinc, nickel, copper and lead) demon-
strated good portability potential for the Phase 1 site and the Phase 2 site;
however, the slope appears to be slightly different. As expected, poor porta-
bility potential for the Phase 3 site is evident.
(iii) the nutrient constituent relationships (e.g., Kjeldahl nitrogen and total phos-
phorous) demonstrated good portability potential for the Phase 1 and 2 site,
and poor portability potential for the Phase 3 site.
Zinc (ug/l) Nickel (ug/1)

1600
1400 6O
1200
70l, r.
5O
40 .
N 800
30 "
L. 61111
40O 2O
200 10 s'~ 9 " "
0 0 / 9 9 9 , 9 i , , , , i
0 500 1000 isoo 2000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Raw Data Raw Data
Copper (ug/I) Lead (ug/1)
350 2500 I
300
~ 2oo
~ 150
~ 100
250
..
1500
E 100o4
t 9
d -' f' ~ ' , " " 500 9 .

50
0 9 i 9 , . , - , e, i . i 9 0 , 9 , 9 , * , 9 , "
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Raw Data Raw Data
Figure 6. Near-site portability: Estimated vs. corrected metal E M C data for the Phase 1 site.
Chloride (rag/I) Sodium (mg/l)

2000 2500
2OO0
1500
,~ 1500
O
100o
t~ O
E 1000
0
500 O
g
500
De
0 ~'J 9 9 ' 0 9 , 9 i 9 , - , 9 J 9
0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 800 i 0 0 0 i 2 0 0 i 4 0 0 i 6 0 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Raw Data Raw Data
Kjeldahl Nitrogen (rag/I) Total Phosphorous (rag/I)

12 2.5
10 2
i8 1.5
1
a. 4
2
Q
05 . .
0 0
0 2 " 4 ' 6 " 8 1~)12 14 16 0 l 2 3 4 5
Raw Data Raw Data
Figure 7. Near-site portability: Estimated vs. corrected dissolved and nutrient E M C data for the
Phase 1 site.
Zinc (ug/l) Nickel (ug/1)

500 f O
2s t
4001
I
20
3O0~
9~- i 9
e~ 10 1
lOOt 9
9
if*
I
0 I 0 , , . , 9 ,
0 lo0 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 5 10 15 20 25

Raw Data Raw Data
Copper (ug0) L e a d (ug/I)
120 ] 8o0 I
lo04 6o0 i
O
t
:~ 60
801 . m 9
e
8 O
~4o0! o
a_ 4 0 ! .::. e
20o 9 "b' 9 9
I
20t...;' "" 1 9 IIPo
1
0 I oi
o 20 80 0 200 400 "600 8 0 0 '10~)1200 1400
Raw Data Raw Data
Figure 8. Near-site portability: E s t i m a t e d vs. corrected metal E M C data for the P h a s e 2 site.
It should also be noted that even for those relationships that demonstrated good
portability potential some data substantially deviated from the 1: 1 line. These data
could possibly represent outliers within the respective data sets since the corrected
data were used in these analyses.
Statistical analyses of the Phase 1, 2 and 3 site data were performed to inves-
tigate and discover: (1) the reasons for potentially different relationships between
constituent and the identified surrogate parameters, (2) the degree to which some
relationships are portable, and others are not, and (3) potential outliers which should
be excluded from subsequent analyses.
Changes in the coefficients of the regression models can be different due to
the nature of the relationships or constituent distributions caused by physical char-
acteristic differences between sites. For example, sodium concentrations for each
site may individually be predicted with a high degree confidence; however, the
coefficients in the regression model could vary. Therefore, all regression equa-
tions developed specifically for each site may explain over 90% of the variance
(r 2 > 0.9) using the same independent variables, but could have substantially dif-
ferent regression coefficients. Thus the portability of these relationships to other
sites would be poor.
Chloride (mg/1) Sodium (mg/I)

1200 1400
Q
O
1000 1200
I
1000
i 800
Q
800
600
160o
400 ,-,',
0
400
e
200 200
0
0 26o 46O s6o 1000 16O 200 300 400 500 600 700
Raw Data Raw Data
Kjeidahl Nitrogen (mg/i) Total Phosphorous (mg/I)
1.8
1.6 -"
2.5 1.4 2
1.2
o 9 9 i
o
o o
~1.5 9 %9 9 I
0.8 o 9 9 9 o
eL I 0.6 e9
0.4
1t 9 e t
0.2
eo~
4
I 9 o9 ae
0.5 ] 0
0 0Z5 i 1~5 2 2Z5 3 "315" 4 o12 014 0 1 6 0 1 8 " -I 1.2
Raw Data Raw Data
Figure 9. Near-site portability: Estimated vs. corrected dissolved and nutrient EMC data for the
Phase 2 site.
Following the same procedure to detect and remove outliers as previously

described for the Phase 4 site, outliers were identified for the Phase 1, Phase 2 and
Phase 3 site data. The elimination of these suspect data produced a working data
base for each site.
Using the working data bases for each site, the best surrogate parameter rela-
tionships were determined for each site. The selection of the best model included
subjective analyses of the coefficient of determination r 2, the scatter plots, and the
residuals for each relationship. In a multiple-linear regression analysis, it is diffi-
cult to determine the best model because many possible forms and combinations
of predictors exist; therefore, many of the constituents could have more than one
acceptable relationship. In order to compare the model coefficients and the nature
of the predictor variables of these developed surrogate parameter relationships to
those developed using the data from the Phase 4 site, only the forms which were
identical to the those based on the Phase 4 site data were selected. Therefore, the
following forms of surrogate parameter relationships emerged:
Zinc (ugh) Nickel (ug/I)

120 6.5 ~
t
61
100
O 5.5 ~
o 80 e
O
60
.o 9
o
40 t."
n 3.54
J
20 3
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0
Raw Data Raw Data
Copper (ug/l) Lead (ug/l)
26 120
24
100
22
=o 20
18
~ 16 O
eL 14 ~, 4o
12 ig 9 g
9 2O P
_ 9
10
8 0
0 20 40 60 80 0 50 11)0 150 200
Raw Data Raw Data
Figure lO. Near-site portability: Estimated vs. corrected metal EMC data for the Phase 3 site.
Metals:
Chromium =/31 (TSS) + /32 (TDS)
Copper =/31 + /32 (TSS)
Iron =/3~ (TSS) + /32 (TDS)
Lead =/31 (TSS) + /32 (TDS)
Zinc =/31 (TSS) + /32 (TDS) + 33 (TOC)
Nickel =/31 + /32 (TSS) + 33 (TOC)
Cadmium =/3] (TSS) + /32 (TDS)
Aluminum =/31 (TSS) + /32 (TDS)
Arsenic =/31 + /32 (TDS)
Ionic Species:
Chloride = fll + 32 (TDS)
Sodium = 31 (TDS) + 32 (TVS)
Sulphate = fll (TDS) + 32 (TOC)
HIGHWAYSTORMWATERRUNOFF QUALITY 333
Chloride (rag/l) Sodium (mg/l)

2000 2500
O
2000 O
1500
O
1500
..
.~ 1000
1000
e~ O9
5OO 5OO
0 500 10t)0 1500 2000 0 "200 4 0 0 '600 8 0 0 '1000'1200

Raw Data Raw Data
Kjeldahl Nitrogen (mg/l) Total Phosphorous (rag/I)
0.6
2.5 0.5 I
0.4 e
2 a 9
o
o, 9149
:~ 0.3 9 o
o
1.5 ~g 9 % 9
0.2
1 0.1
o
0.5
0 i 2 " 3 " 4 i 6 0 014 016 028 i 1.2
Raw D a ~ Raw Data
Figure 11. Near-site portability: Estimated vs. corrected dissolved and nutrient EMC data for the
Phase 3 site.
Nutrients:
Total N =/31 + /32 (TDS)
COD =/31 (TSS) + /32 (TDS) + [33 (TOC)
Kjeldahl =/3n (TVS) + /32(TOC)
NOz+NO3 =/31 (TDS) + /32(TOC)
Total P =/31 (TSS) + /32 (TVS)
where ill,/32, and/33 are the model coefficients. The model coefficients for each
constituent investigated are presented in the Appendix for each site of the Minnesota
data base. Overall, the model forms and model coefficients developed for each of
the four sites were similar. The only exception was for the metal relationships
developed for the Phase 3 site in which the r 2 values were consistently lower than
those for the other three sites.
If the model coefficients in each constituent model for each site were identical,
then the model would be perfectly portable between the sites investigated. It is
possible that any differences between the model coefficients could be predictable
using site-specific physical characteristics. This would result in a unique relation-
ship for each site and yet be a portable model. To investigate possible relationships
between the model coefficients and the physical characteristics of each site (e.g.,
Figure 12. Near-site portability: Correlation matrix for model coefficients and the physical parameters
of each site.
drainage area, percent impervious area, number of lanes, and ADT), the correlation
matrix shown in Figure 12 was developed (the shading in this figure indicates those
correlation coefficients that are larger than 0.6). This correlation matrix suggests
that the model coefficients could be predicted with one or more of the four physical
variables proposed. Since there are only four sites in this analysis a linear regression
model would have only two degrees of freedom. In addition, the full impact of the
rural-type Phase 3 site are unknown and difficult to quantify. Therefore, a complete
Phase I Phase 2
1200 1000
1000
800
~d 6O0
1
.~ 600
c,, 400
200
. . . . .
400
2oo
0
r ................................
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 60 z~o 360 4~ 500 600 700
Raw Data Raw Data
Phase 3 Phase 4
700 25000
l
20O00
500 .'"''''"i
400 15000
~ 301) j"
~ 200 .'" ~
~00 ;"2 . 5O00
r
0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1201) io~ 2o000 30600 40~ 50~ 60600 70600 80000
Raw Data Raw Data
Figure 13. Near-site portability: Estimated vs. corrected sodium EMC data in mg/L using the modified
surrogate parameter relationships.
regression analysis was not undertaken. However, to demonstrate the utility of this
type of approach for the four sites, a limited investigation on the impact on the
sodium model was explored. The regression coefficients (/31 and/32) were assumed
to be influenced by the number of lanes at each site, hence a linear regression
analysis produced the following relationships:
/31 = 0.0647 (Number of Lanes) r 2 = 0.986
f12 • - 0 . 7 6 5 + 0.0767 (Number of Lanes) 7"2 = 0.989
Using these relationships, the coefficients in the sodium EMC model were
calculated for each site, and then the sodium EMC's were estimated for each event.
Figure 13 compares the predicted sodium EMC's to the corrected sodium EMC's.
From Figures 7, 9, and 11, the surrogate sodium relationships developed from
the Phase 4 site data appeared to over-estimate the sodium EMC's by a factor
of approximately 1.8. However, Figure 13 clearly demonstrates that accounting
for at least the number of lanes between sites improves the predicted sodium
concentrations. The exception again is the Phase 3 site due to its rural nature.
Although the comparison for the Phase 4 site appears to be poor, the developed
relationship for sodium based on the Phase 4 data only had a n r 2 = 0.5. The potential
of this procedure with more sites in a relatively close proximity, appears to be very
promising.
336 N. R. THOMSONET AL.
Table V
Physical and event characteristics for far-site portability investigation
City/Highway
Characteristic Milwaukee/l-94 Denver/I-25 Harrisburg/I-81 Nashville/I-40
Type urban urban urban urban
Number of lanes 8 l0 6 6
Average daily traffic 116 000 149 000 24 000 88 000
Area (ha) 3.1 14.3 7.5 22.5
% Impervious 64 37 27 37
Surface type asphalt asphalt concrete concrete
Shoulders . . . .
Median . . . .
Curbs yes yes no yes
Monitored events 139 16 25 31

Snow events 30 0 3 0
Zinc 34~ 15 20 20
Lead 45 16 21 29
Iron 45 16 21 24
Chloride 100 14 21 21
Indicates the number of EMC observations available for analyses.
6.2. FAR-SITE PORTABILITY
To investigate the far-site portability o f the developed surrogate parameter rela-

tionships to sites with similar environmental conditions, four sites were selected
from an inventory of highway runoff quality study sites prepared by Driscoll et
al. (1990). The four sites selected were: 1-94 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin; 1-25 in
Denver, Colorado; 1-81 in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; and in 1-40 Nashville, Ten-
nesse. The physical and event characteristics are presented in Table V. All four
selected sites were urban highways, and only the M i l w a u k e e / I - 9 4 site had a per-
cent impervious area that is comparable to the Minnesota Phase 4 study site. T h e
Harrisburg/I-81 site was the only curbless site investigated in this analysis.
Zinc, lead, iron and chloride were selected as target constituents for compar-
isons to the developed relationships since they were the most frequently measured
parameters in each o f the data bases. In addition, TVS levels were not report-
ed by Driscoll et al. (1980) and hence only those relationships without TVS as an
explanatory variable could be e m p l o y e d for comparison. The data base prepared by
Driscoll et al. (1990) did not contain levels of TDS, so these values were estimated
from the information provided on total solids (TS) and TSS.
Figures 14 through 17 present the raw E M C data along with the associated
predicted or estimated E M C levels of chloride, iron, zinc and lead respectively
Milwaukee I-9a Denver 1-25

35000 I 300
30000 t 250 -
25000 1 200
~ 2O0OO .
150
&
100
mooo t .'~""
5000 ~ r . . t, 50
ol I . ~ , 0
o ~oooo 2o&o 3o& 40000 0 20 40 60 80 100
Raw Data R a w Data
Harrisburg I-8 l Nashville 1-40

1200 4OO
1000-
800.
300 t
I
!
~6oo. 200 J
I
400-
100
I
200 - ~ILw~ ~176176176
~
___ ...... - ......... !
2c;o 4 & 4o ,~o 1000 !0 2~ 3 0 4o 50 6o

R a w Data R a w Data
Figure 14. F a r - s i t e p o r t a b i l k y : E s t i m a t e d vs actual data for c h l o r i d e in m g / L .
for each of the selected sites. The following observations and implications can be
deduced from each of these figures:
Chloride (Figure 14) This predictive relationship seems to compare adequately
with the raw data when levels of TDS or chloride are high (e.g., Milwaukee/I-94 and
Harrisburg/I-8 I). These high levels are obviously indicative of events associated
with snowmelt where road maintenance practices have contributed to an increase
in the levels of chloride. Both the Denver and the Nashville site data base do
not contain information on snow events as detailed in Table V. The predictive
relationship for chloride is not directly applicable to the Harrisburg/I-81 site since
there appears to be a change in the regression coefficients that may reflect different
physical site characteristics (see Table V for details).
Iron (Figure 15) The levels of iron generated from the predictive relationships
compared extremely well with the raw data for all the selected sites except for a
small discrepancy for the Nashville/I-40 site. It seems that this predictive relation-
ship is relatively insensitive to changes in physical drainage basin characteristics.
Zinc (Figure 16) Similar to the predictive model for iron, the predictive rela-
tionship for zinc produced values that compared very well with the raw data at all
the selected sites.
Milwaukee 1-94 DenverI-25

80 50
40
60
~ 30
:'5 40
20~
.~ro~
20
10
r
0
50 0 1; 2; 3; 4o
Raw Data Raw Data
Harrisburg 1-81 Nashville 1-40

7 20
6 ~ J
p~ 15
5
~ 4
2 5
1
0 0
Raw Data Raw Data
Figure 15. Far-site portability: E s t i m a t e d vs actual data for iron in m g / L .
Lead (Figure 17) The predictive relationship developed for lead produced values
that matched extremely well with the raw data for only the Denver/I-25 site. Model
coefficient changes in this relationship are required for an improved comparison
with the raw data from the Milwaukee/I-94 site. Both the Harrisburg/I-81 site and
the Nashville/I-40 site appear to contain non-detect values in the raw data and
therefore provide little information on the portability of the predictive relationship
for lead.
Based on this analysis, it appears that the developed models exhibited far-site
portability potential but should be used with caution. The chloride model produces
adequate values for large levels of TDS, while the iron, lead and zinc models
compared extremely well with the raw data for a number of the sites investigated.
7. Attempts at a Predictive Model For TSS, TDS, TVS, and TOC
Given that TSS, TDS, TVS and TOC appear to be adequate surrogate parameters,
it was of interest to investigate the potential to estimate these parameters based
on environmental conditions that may vary from one event to another. Based on a
correlation analyses of the Phase 4 site EMC's of TSS, TDS, TVS and TOC, and
the traffic count before (TCB) a runoff event, the average daily traffic (ADT) and
M i l w a u k e e 1-94 D e n v e r 1-25
2.5 2 I
2 r
t 15
sI
I
2 1.5
t
1
9 0.5
O.5 9 -~ ~ 9 ~~
0
0 05 1 ,.'s 9 ~ 2.'5 " 3 3.5 0 02 0.4 0.6 0.8 l 12 14 1.6
Raw Data Raw Data
H a r r i s b u r g I-8"~ Na..~hville 1-40

0.25 06 [
0.2 0.5 J
0.4
v0.15
2g
-5 ~ 0.3 9 ~176176
9 9149
9 9~
s 0.1 9 ~149
0.2
~149
~149
0.05 O1
o ['9149
0 0.05
" "
0.'1 0.15 0.'2 0.25
0 -
0.'1
9
0.'2 0.'3 0.'4 0'5 ' 0.'6 0.7
Raw Data R a w Data
Figure I6. Far-site portability: Estimated vs actual data for zinc in mg/L.
traffic during a runoff event (TCD), it was concluded that the traffic count before a
runoff event was the best representation of traffic (e.g., the correlation coefficient
for TCB-TSS, TCB-TDS, TCB-TVS, and TCB-TOC was 0.41, 0.32, 0.67 and
0.46 respectively). Potential event-related parameters are total flow, flow duration,
average flow intensity, and the number of dry days between events. The total flow
and flow duration are related to the rainfall and/or snowmelt but vary between
events due to the physical characteristics of the drainage area. The average flow
intensity which is defined as the total runoff volume divided by the flow duration,
may be important in explaining high EMC's for events which had an average flow
volume but the duration was small since there is more energy during these events
to mobilize contaminants or sediments. The number of dry days is a measurement
or quantification of the amount of time for contaminant deposition. A longer time
between events should result in the deposition of more contaminants. Unfortunately,
a longer time between storm events could also result in drying and subsequent loss
due to wind or vehicular movement.
The Minnesota monitoring effort was different from many other highway
stormwater quality data collection efforts with respect to the number of dry days
measured since this study employed the following three categories to identify the
number of dry days: DDays05, DDays25 and DDays5. These categories represent
the number of days that passed prior to the last storm event having a rainfall volume
Milwaukee 1-94 Denver 1-25

3.5 2.5 [ s ]
3 jJ
Y
2.5 4
J
._.2
2
1.5
1 t
9
tp
j~
o.5
t
[ ,..U" "
,~
j-
~
i
0.5 /
r% |e%~
o -I!- o
o ~ 0 0.5 i 1'5 2 2.5
Raw Da~ R a w Data
Harrisburg I-8 i Nashville 1-40

0.3 [ 1
0.25 1 0.8
I
0.2
~o.6
, s.. ~
~0. 4
~- 0.11 4"
9 9 s.r I 0
t
0.2 4 "
005 ~ ..-
| r
01.~" 0
0 0.05 0.1 O. IS 0 .'2 0.25 0 '5 I i '5
R a w Data R a w Data
Figure 17. Far-site portability: Estimated vs actual data for lead in mg/L.
greater than 0.05 of an inch (1.27 mm), 0.25 in. (6.4 mm) and 0.5 in. (12.7 mm)
respectively. These three dry day measurements could take into account the removal
uncertainties due to storm sizes.
A statistical analysis was undertaken to develop a predictive model for TSS,
TDS, TVS, and TOC using the following potential predictors: TCB, total flow
volume, total rain volume, flow duration, average flow intensity, and the three
dry day measurements. The trends observed in the initial scatter plots of the four
surrogate parameters and the possible predictor variables indicated a non-linear
relationship. Therefore the following five forms of simple regression models were
explored: linear, log, power, inverse, and exponential decay. Each of these six
relationships were tested using all eight independent predictor variables to predict
TSS, TDS, TVS and TOC.
The results for TSS demonstrated that TCB (linear model; 7.2 = 0.33) and
DDays05 (linear model, 7.2 = 0.1 l) were the best predictors based on the coeffi-
cient of determination. TCB in a linear model was the better of the two; however,
the coefficient of determination (r 2) of 0.33 was not encouraging. The flow para-
meters demonstrated very little predictive capability of TSS. The results for TDS
demonstrated that TCB (linear model; 7`2 = 0.63), flow duration (power model; r 2 =
0.18) and average flow intensity (exponential decay model; r 2 = 0.15) were the best
predictors; however, the coefficient of determination (r 2) for the flow parameters
were still very low. TCB was the best predictor with a more encouraging coefficient
of determination of 0.63; however, this is only applicable to rainfall events where
the TDS EMC's were determined to be statistically different from the TDS EMC
from snowmelt or mixed events. The results for TVS and TOC demonstrated that
TCB (linear model; r 2 = 0.50 for TVS and r 2 = 0.30 for TOC) and DDays05
(exponential decay model; r 2 = 0.30 for TVS and r 2 = 0.55 for TOC) were the best
predictors.
A multiple regression analyses was conducted using combinations of the var-
ious predictor variables. All the independent variables were not inter-correlated
(except total rain and total runoff) and therefore are acceptable for use in a multiple
regression analyses. Many combinations of predictor variables were investigated,
the models for each surrogate parameter that showed potential were:
T S S (in m g / L ) = 3.90 x | 0 - 4 (TCB) t~ (Flow Intensity) ~ r 2 = 0.412

T D S (in m g / L ) = 61.2 + 5.93 x 1 0 - 4 ( T C B ) - 7.28 (Flow Duration) r 2 = 0.677
T V S (in m g / L ) = 24.6 + 3.35 x 1 0 - 4 ( T C B ) r 2 = 0.495
T O C (in m g / L ) = lO.7.e (-~176 r 2 = 0.545
where TCB represents the traffic count (number of vehicles) before a runoff event,
flow intensity is in inches/hour, flow duration is in hours, and DDays05 is the
number of days that have passed since the last storm event having a rainfall volume
greater than 0.05 of an inch (1.27 mm)
The best TSS model was a power multiple regression model using traffic and
flow intensity as the independent predictor variables (r 2 = 0.4 l). The single para-
meter models suggested that a multiple linear regression using TCB and DDays05
together, could explain a larger portion of the variance; however, the regression
variables for this model were not significant (i.e., greater than 50% probability the
regression coefficients were zero). It can be concluded that the prediction of TSS
was unsuccessful. Unlike the prediction of TSS, a multiple regression approach to
predict TDS was successful using a linear model with TCB and flow duration (r 2
= 0.68). The best model for the prediction of TVS was a power multiple regres-
sion model using TCB and average flow intensity (r 2 = 0.52). The simple linear
regression model using only TCB had a similar coefficient of determination and
hence the simple model is more desirable. The best model for the prediction of
TOC was an exponential decay model using DDays05 (r e = 0.55) as the only
predictive variable. Although both TCB and DDays05 were both moderately good
single parameter models, they were not statistically significant when used together.
As a result of this statistical analyses, the developed predictive relationships for
TSS, TDS, TVS, and TOC using a variety of predictor variables from the Phase 4
data were poor. This finding suggests that sampling of these surrogate parameters
rather than their prediction may be necessary at many highway runoff locations.
8. S u m m a r y
The ultimate goal of a reliable predictive model for forecasting highway stormwa-
ter runoff pollutant loads or concentrations is to predict the constituent of concern
and yet reflect the high variability of this non-point source. A portion of a com-
prehensive data base compiled by the Minnesota Department of Transportation
was used to identify a set of surrogate parameters that could be used to predict
other constituents of interest. Prediction models were developed through a statis-
tical approach in which a series of statistical analyses were employed to ascertain
the best relationships. Careful attention was given to outlier identification and
their subsequent removal on the performance of the developed models. As a result
of this effort, total suspended solids (TSS), total dissolved solids (TDS), total
volatile solids (TVS), and total organic carbon (TOC) proved to be effective surro-
gate parameters for numerous metals, ionic species, and nutrients for event mean
concentrations of highway runoff events. The availability of surrogate parameter
estimates suggests that there is a significant potential for savings in data collection
and laboratory analyses.
The portability of these developed surrogate parameter relationships was inves-
tigated by employing the relationships to predict event mean concentrations using
only the identified surrogate parameters at sites other than those for which the mod-
els were derived. The near-site portability investigation demonstrated that the ionic
species constituent relationships demonstrated good portability to all sites, while
the metal and nutrient constituent relationships demonstrated good portability only
at the urban sites. The findings from the far-site portability investigation indicated
that: (1) the chloride relationship was adequate when the TDS concentration was
elevated, (2) the iron and zinc relationships produced EMC values that match-
ed well with the actual data, and (3) the lead relationship produced values that
compared favourably with the actual data from only one of four sites investigated.
An attempt to develop a predictive model for the identified surrogate parameters
using eight potential traffic and event related predictor variables resulted in limited
success.
Acknowledgements
Thanks are extended to Ken Moxness of the Minnesota Department of Transporta-

tion for providing access to the Minnesota highway stormwater quality data base,
and for lending his expertise in explaining aspects of the data.
Appendix: Model Coefficients for Surrogate Parameter Models
Chromium(#g/L) = /31 (TSS) +/32 (TDS)

Phase 1 0.0632 + 0.00988 r 2 = 0.949
Phase 2 0.0466 + 0.00248 r 2 = 0.919
Phase 3 0.105 + 0.000763 r 2 = 0.588
Phase 4 0.0879 + 0.000236 r 2 = 0.764
Copper(#g/L) = fll + f12 (TSS)

Phase 1 10.91 + 0.248 r 2 = 0.896
Phase 2 7.343 + 0.132 r 2 = 0.689
Phase 3 0.00 + 0.577 7,2 = 0.378
Phase 4 9.49 + 0.248 r 2 = 0.634
Iron(#g/L) = fll (TSS) + 3 2 (TDS)

Phase 1 40.05 + 1.448 r 2 = 0.968
Phase 2 31.923 + 0.505 r 2 = 0.963
Phase 3 23.307 + 0.109 r 2 = 0.598
Phase 4 36.82 + -0.0638 7,2 = 0.846
L e a d (#g/L) = fll (TSS) + f12 (TDS)

Phase 1 3.845 + 0.274 r 2 = 0.959
Phase 2 2.966 + 0.154 r 2 = 0.930
Phase 3 0.868 + 0.0409 r 2 = 0.544
Phase 4 1.720 + -0.00286 r 2 = 0.823
Zinc (#g/L) = fll (TSS) + f12 ( T D S ) + f13 (TOC)

Phase 1 0.955 + 0.0749 + 3.672 7`2 = 0.910
Phase 2 1.009 + 0.0481 + 2.463 r 2 = 0.955
Phase 3 0.904 + 0.0195 + 0.000 r 2 = 0.669
Phase 4 1.004 + -0.00216 + 2.066 r 2 = 0.910
Nickel(#g/L) = fll + f12 ( T S S ) + f13 (TOC)

Phase 1 2.12 + 0.0449 + 6.08 • 10 -4 r 2 = 0.879
Phase 2 2.30 + 0.0267 + 2.62 x 10 -4 r 2 = 0.788
Phase 3 0.00 + 0.247 + 0.000 7,2 = 0.827
Phase 4 2.12 + 0.0488 + 0.0653 r 2 = 0.727
Cadmium(#g/L) = fll(TSS) + 32 ( T D S )
Phase 1 0,0115 + 0.00371 r 2 = 0.783
Phase 2 0.00849 + 0,00155 r 2 = 0.733
Phase 3 0.00370 + 0.0000 r 2 = 0.172
Phase 4 0.00939 + 0.000114 r 2 = 0.822
Aluminum (#g/L)= fll ( T S S ) + fie ( T D S )

Phase 1 11.097 + 2.819 r 2 = 0.846
Phase 2 8.296 + 0,418 r "2 = 0 . 8 5 2
Phase 3 16.224 + 0.0612 r 2 =0.179
Phase 4 29.69 + ~0.0620 r "2 = 0 . 7 9 0
Arsenic(#g/L) = fll + f12 ( T D S )

Phase I 1.995 + 0,00381 r 2 = 0.365
Phase 2 1.960 + 0.00209 r '2 = 0 . 4 5 7
Phase 3 2.017 + 0.00527 r 2 = 0,967
Phase 4 0.000 + 0.00541 r 2 = 0,808
Chloride(rag/L) = fll + f12 ( T D S )

Phase 1 -22.50 + 0,514 r 2= 0.970
Phase 2 -66.78 + 0.524 1,2= 0 . 9 6 5
Phase 3 -62.38 + 0.541 r 2= 0.972
Phase 4 0.00 + 0.575 r 2= 0.996
Sodium(rag/L) = fl~ ( T D S ) + f12 ( T V S )

Phase 1 0.380 + -0,283 r 2 = 0,995
Phase 2 0.331 + -0.322 7`2 = 0 , 9 4 6
Phase 3 0.346 + -0.462 r 2 = 0,979
Phase 4 0.652 + 0.000 7.2 = 0,501
Sulphate(mg/L) = fll ( T D S ) + f12 ( T O C )

Phase 1 0.0275 + 0,431 r 2 = 0,880
Phase 2 0.0528 + 0.368 r 2 = 0,844
Phase 3 0.0201 + 0.627 r 2 = 0.939
Phase 4 0.00837 + 0,741 r`2 = 0 , 7 2 6
HIGHWAYSTORMWATERRUNOFFQUALITY 345
Total N(mg/L) = /31 +/32 ( T D S )

Phase 1 2.541 + 0.00219 r 2 = 0.130
Phase 2 2.667 + 0.00114 r 2 = 0.277
Phase 3 1.660 + 0.00200 r 2 = 0.753
Phase 4 2.050 + 8.70 x 10 . 5 r 2 = 0.237
COD(mg/L) = Pl (TSS) +/32 ( T D S ) +/33 ( T O C )

Phase 1 0.0827 + 0.0262 + 3.143 r 2 = 0.970
Phase2 0.125 + 0.00616 +3.177 r 2 = 0.967
Phase 3 0.826 + 0.0083 + 2.173 r 2 = 0.905
Phase 4 -0.344 + 0.0479 + 4.213 r 2 =0.816
Kjeldahl(mg/L) = /31 ( T V S ) +/32 ( T O C )

Phase 1 0.0142 + 0.0440 r 2 = 0.888
Phase 2 0.000674 + 0.616 r 2 = 0.920
Phase 3 0.0111 + 0.0666 r 2 = 0.912
Phase 4 0.00120 + 0.0556 r 2 = 0.836
NOz+NO3(mg/L) = fli ( T D S ) +/32 ( T O C )

Phase 1 0.000191 + 0.0247 r ~- = 0 . 7 6 4
Phase 2 0.00175 + 0.0352 7.2 = 0 . 7 9 2
Phase 3 0.000390 + 0.0123 r 2 = 0.646
Phase4 - 2 . 1 7 x 10 - 5 + 0.0325 r 2 = 0.498
Total P(mg/L) = fll ( T S S ) + 32 ( T V S )

Phase 1 0.00115 + 0.00390 r 2 = 0.754
Phase 2 0.00211 + 0.00108 r 2 = 0.803
Phase 3 0.00937 + 0.00430 r 2 = 0.667
Phase 4 0.00106 + 0.00292 r 2 = 0.777
N o t e that t h e units for T S S , T D S , T V S , a n d T O C a r e m g / L .

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HIGHWAY STORMWATER RUNOFF QUALITY: D E V E L O P M E N T OF

SURROGATE PARAMETER RELATIONSHIPS

(Received 19 June, 1995; accepted 22 January, 1996)

Highway stormwater runoff is discontinuous in time, not concentrated at one spe-

Water, Air, and Soil Pollution 94: 307-347, 1997.

indicates two schematics of possible highway configurations: a rural and an urban

Highway stormwater runoff contains numerous water quality constituents; some

2.2. SAMPLING METHODOLOGY AND EXISTING DATABASES

The discrete samples provide information on extreme values as well as the

2.3. D O C U M E N T E D SURROGATE RELATIONSHIPS

California Sacramento Hwy. 50 34 0.81 82 8 urban 85 900 Racin et al. (1982)

TABLE I(b): Water quality databases - British and German

England London Hwy. 22 34 0.05 - - urban - Ellis et al. (1987)

Denotes the percent of the catchment area that is considered impervious.

suspended solids loading and a proportionality constant. A separate proportionality

3. Minnesota Data Base

Characteristic Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4

Highway 1-94, 1-494, 1-694, 1-94,

a Estimated from yearly traffic data.

3.1. PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS

Number of Numberof Numberof Number of

3.2. RUNOFFAND CONSTITUENTCHARACTERISTICS

Measured Number of Standard Minimum Maximum Number of

Kjeldahl mg/L 121 1.77 1.34 0.35 6.7 0

R-Silica mg/L 90 6.93 6.68 0.56 60 0

TS mg/L 138 3287 10440.3 47 81728 0 9z

Lead #g/L 136 207.3 297.72 11 2100 0 ,.<

In particular, lead, manganese and arsenic concentration data contained a number

.,~ '~ 0.5

02-Aug-81 18-Feb-82 06-Sep-82 25-Mar-83 11-Oct-83

4. Towards a Working Phase 4 Data Base

1) Solids -+ (TSS, TDS, total volatile solids (TVS))

To explore inter-constituent correlations, correlation matrices for both the con-

Figure 5. Correlation matrix for Phase 4 EMCs.

4.1. SIMPLE REGRESSION ANALYSES

5. Surrogate Parameter Relationships

Of interest is the degree to which the developed surrogate parameter relationships

Far-site portability addresses the application of the developed relationships to sites

6.1. NEAR-SITE PORTABILITY

Zinc (ug/l) Nickel (ug/1)

0 500 1000 isoo 2000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

d -' f' ~ ' , " " 500 9 .

Chloride (rag/I) Sodium (mg/l)

0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 800 i 0 0 0 i 2 0 0 i 4 0 0 i 6 0 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Kjeldahl Nitrogen (rag/I) Total Phosphorous (rag/I)

Zinc (ug/l) Nickel (ug/1)

0 lo0 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 5 10 15 20 25

Chloride (mg/1) Sodium (mg/I)

Following the same procedure to detect and remove outliers as previously

Zinc (ugh) Nickel (ug/I)

Chloride (rag/l) Sodium (mg/l)

0 500 10t)0 1500 2000 0 "200 4 0 0 '600 8 0 0 '1000'1200

/31 = 0.0647 (Number of Lanes) r 2 = 0.986

f12 • - 0 . 7 6 5 + 0.0767 (Number of Lanes) 7"2 = 0.989

Monitored events 139 16 25 31

6.2. FAR-SITE PORTABILITY

To investigate the far-site portability o f the developed surrogate parameter rela-

Milwaukee I-9a Denver 1-25

Harrisburg I-8 l Nashville 1-40

2c;o 4 & 4o ,~o 1000 !0 2~ 3 0 4o 50 6o

Figure 14. F a r - s i t e p o r t a b i l k y : E s t i m a t e d vs actual data for c h l o r i d e in m g / L .

Milwaukee 1-94 DenverI-25

Harrisburg 1-81 Nashville 1-40

Raw Data Raw Data