Canada - National UltraPoll

22nd January 2018

METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results
of a survey conducted between January
3rd to 6th, 2018 among a sample of 3890
adults, 18 years of age or older, living in
Canada. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart
IVR). Respondents were interviews on both
landlines and cellular phones. The survey is
intended to represent the voting population
of Canada.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and
random digit dialing. The part of the survey that
dialed from the directory was conducted as a
stratified dial of the ten Canadian provinces.
In the case of random digit dials, respondents
were asked the additional question of what
region of the country they resided in.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 0.99%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all
three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
LIBERALS IN GOOD POSITION, MAINSTREET RESEARCH POLL FINDS

22 January 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – Justin Trudeau would win another majority mandate if an election
were held today, a new Mainstreet Research poll finds.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s new UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial
polls where federal voting intentions were also asked. The poll surveyed 9830 Canadians between
January 3rd and January 6th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 0.99% and is accurate 19 times out
of 20.

“The Liberals stand almost in the exact same position that they finished with on election day in
2015, with just over 4 in 10 Canadians ready to give Justin Trudeau their vote”, said Quito Maggi,
President and CEO of Mainstreet Research.

“Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives stand six points back at 34.5%, and the NDP under Jagmeet
Singh has the support of just over 13% of Canadian voters”.

The Green Party under Elizabeth May has the support of over 6% of Canadians and the Bloc Quebecois
round out the field with just under 4% and 16% in Quebec.

Maggi notes the great generational divide in support between the Trudeau Liberals and the Scheer
Conservatives.

“The Conservatives do best among those over 65 years of age where they enjoy the support of over
four in ten voters and are tied with the Liberals. Among those under 35, now the largest voting bloc
in Canada, their support drops to just 27% and they trail the Liberals by almost 16 points”, Maggi said.

The Mainstreet poll also finds that the NDP’s fortunes have not changed now that they have Jagmeet
Singh as their leader.

“The NDP under Singh continue to struggle much as they did under former leader Tom Mulcair,”
added Maggi. “Their support is highest among those under 35, in BC and Quebec, although they sit in
4th place in both Quebec and BC. They also trail the Green Party and May in Atlantic Canada where
they fail to reach double-digit support”.

The Liberals remain strong in the regions that gave them their majority win in 2015, which points to
likely re-election of the Prime Minister. The Liberals enjoy a 24% lead in Quebec, a 19% lead in Atlantic
Canada, and 7% lead in Ontario and British Columbia.

“While the Liberals are in a very strong position as 2018 begins, next year’s federal election is still
seventeen months away, and there are sure to be many events that will impact voter intentions in
that time”, Maggi concluded.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If the federal election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
If the federal election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
regional breakouts
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the economy in the
coming year?
demographic breakouts
Age and Gender
Regions
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about your personal finances
in the coming year?
demographic breakouts
Age and Gender
Regions
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

(decided and leaning voters)

 Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the economy in the
coming year?

Are you optimistic or pessimistic about your personal finances

in the coming year?
 QUESTIONNAIRE
Q1: If the federal election were held Q5: Are you optimistic or pessimistic
today, which party would you vote about the economy in the coming
for? year?
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Very Optimistic
Trudeau Somewhat Optimistic
Conservative Party of Canada led by Somewhat Pessimistic
Andrew Scheer Very Pessimistic
New Democratic Party of Canada led Not Sure
by Jagmeet Singh
Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth Q6: Are you optimistic or pessimistic
May about your personal finances in the
Undecided coming year?
Very Optimistic
Q2: And which party are you leaning Somewhat Optimistic
towards? (only asked of respondents Somewhat Pessimistic
who were undecided in Q1) Very Pessimistic
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Not Sure
Trudeau
Conservative Party of Canada led by Q7: What is your gender?
Andrew Scheer Male
New Democratic Party of Canada led Female
by Jagmeet Singh
Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth Q8: What is your age group?
May 18 to 34 years of age
Undecided 35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
[Provincial related questions were 65 years of age or older
asked here - refer to the individual
provincial reports for thsoe questions]
 METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between January 3rd,
2018 and January 6th, 2018, among a sample of 9830 adults, 18 years of age or older, living
in Canada. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of Canada.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. The survey that dialed
from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian provinces. In the
case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region
of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 0.98% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/-1.38%, Females: +/-1.41%,
18-34 age group: +/- 3.02%, 35-49 age group: +/- 2.28%, 50-64 age group: +/- 1.79%, 65+ age
group: +/- 1.56%, British Columbia: +/- 3.24%, Alberta: +/- 3.11%, Prairies: +/- 2.36%, Ontario:
+/- 2.01%, Quebec: +/- 3.15%, Atlantic Canada: +/- 1.83%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.