Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

Constraints on the Expansion of the Global Food Supply

Author(s): Henry W. Kendall and David Pimentel
Source: Ambio, Vol. 23, No. 3 (May, 1994), pp. 198-205
Published by: Allen Press on behalf of Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4314199
Accessed: 14/06/2010 21:35

Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at
http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless
you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you
may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use.

Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at
http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=acg.

Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed
page of such transmission.

JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of
content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms
of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.

Allen Press and Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and
extend access to Ambio.

http://www.jstor.org
 Article Henry W. Kendall and David Pimentel
Constraintson the Expansion of
Global Food Supply
We examine whether and how global food production may
be increased to provide for a world population expected to
double by about 2050. Increasing current food production
more than proportional to population growth is required so
as to provide most humans with an adequate diet. We
examine the possible expansion of food supplies to the year
2050, the inventory of presently utilized and potentially
available arable land, rates of land degradation, and the
limitations of water and biological resources. Serious
degradation and loss of the world's arable land is taking
place and expansion of irrigation,vital for food production,
is becoming more costly and difficult.A business-as-usual
scenario points to looming shortages of food. Additional
stress from possible climatic alteration and enhanced
ultraviolet radiation may make the provision of adequate
food supplies extremely difficultto achieve. The nature of
the changes that are required to make sufficient food
available are identified.
INTRODUCTION
World populationis projectedto continue increasing well into
the next century.A centralquestion is whetherand how global
food productionmay be increased to provide for the coming
populationexpansion. It would be necessaryto increasecurrent
levels of food productionmore than proportionalto population
growth so as to provide most humans with an adequate diet.
Thereare a numberof actionsthatmay be takento help this food
expansion,but there are also a numberof constraintsthat make
expansionof food outputdifficult. In this paperwe examine the
expansionof per capitafood suppliesrequiredin the light of the
currentrange of expectations of populationgrowth, the inven-
tory of currentlyutilized and potentially available arableland,
ratesof landdegradation,andthelimitationsof waterandbiologi-
cal resources.We make assessmentsof the prospectsof achiev-
ing the neededgrowthof the global food supplyto the year 2050,
when the world's populationis projectedto have aboutdoubled.
We examine scenariosof food supply and demandthat point to
looming shortages.We do not analyzethe problemsof providing
energy, capital, and other needs to supportincreasingnumbers
of people.
POPULATION AND FOOD
Numbers and Growth
The world's populationgrew slowly over much of the historic
past;it was not until after 1900 that growthaccelerated(1). The
1992 population was 5.5 billion. World population is now
increasingat about1.7%yr-1,correspondingto a doublingtime of
40 years. Recently, a gradualdecrease in the fertility rate has
slowed in a numberof countries(2, 3), most notablyin Chinaand
India(4), whichhasledto upwardrevisionsin populationforecasts.
The world populationwill grow by just under 1 billion people
duringthe decade of the 1990s.
Figure1 shows threesuchprojectionsfor worldpopulation(5),
The UnitedNationshas concludedthatif the world's fertilityrate
198 ? Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 1994
th
were to fall to replacementlevels duringthe period 1990-1995
andremainedthere,the worldpopulationwould reach7.8 billion
in 2050. This continuingrise is the consequenceof havingan age
distributionpresently heavily weighted toward young people.
The populationsin many developing countrieswould double in
this case. A population of 7.8 billion, under this implausible
assumption,is only slightly less thanthe low projectionfor that
year, which thus appearsunrealistic.For the purposes of this
paper we will employ the medium fertility estimate. The 2050
world populationin this scenariois expected to be 10 billion.
Food: History and Supply
In the early 1960s, most nations were self-sufficient in food;
now only a few are.In the period 1950-1984, the introductionof
high-yieldcrops andenergyintensiveagricultureushereedin the
Green Revolution,leading to increasedcrop production.World
grain output expanded by a factor of 2.6 in this period (6, 7)
increasinglinearly, within the fluctuations.Except for parts of
Africa, productionexceeded populationgrowth throughoutthe
world.Percapitaproductionhas now slowed (8) andappearsto be
declining.Rising growthof population,as shownin Figure1, and
a linearlyincreasingfood production(Fig. 2) have persistedover
the recent 40 years. Such circumstanceshave been of concern
since Thomas R. Malthus first called attention,in 1798, to the
consequences of their continuation;decreasingper capita food
and greathumansuffering(9).
The success of the Green Revolution lay primarily in its
increased use of fossil energy for fertilizers, pesticides, and
irrigationto raise crops as well as in improvedseed. It greatly
increasedthe energy-intensivenessof agriculturalproduction,in
some cases by 100-fold or more. Plantbreedingwas principally
aimed at designing plants that could tolerate high levels of
fertilizeruse and improvingthe harvest index (10). The Green
Revolutionwas technologicallysuitedto special circumstances:
relatively level land with adequate water for irrigation and
fertilizer, and in nations that could acquire the other needed
resources. The Revolution has been implementedin a manner
that has not proved to be environmentally sustainable. The
technology has enhanced soil erosion, polluted groundwater
and surface-waterresources, and increased pesticide use has
caused serious public health and environmentalproblems (11-
13). Opportunitiesexist to reduce these negative environmental
and social impacts. Researchis underwayat most of the Inter-
national Crop Research Centers to make the Revolution more
environmentallyand socially sustainable.
Since 1980, there has been some improvementin world crop
yields with the rateof increasein total grainproductiondeclining
slightly. Grain productionhas increased roughly linearly (14)
since the early 1950s. World area plantedto grain is down 8%
since 1981 (15). However, there are a number of important
obstacles to a large, furtherexpansion of the energy intensive
practicesthatunderlaythe expansionbased on the GreenRevo-
lution, includingeconomics, technology adoption,and environ-
mentaldegradation.
At the present time, 2 of 183 nations are majorexportersof
grain,the United States and Canada.
Ambio Vol. 23 No. 3, May 1994
Food: Availability and Consumption
Formost of the world's population,grainis the primarysourceof
nutritionand may become more so in years ahead. It is thus a
useful measure in estimating future food needs. The per capita
consumptionof foods and feed grainssuppliedper year is shown
in Table 1. Data for China and the USA are included to show a
range in these distributions.
Per capitagrainproductionin Africa is down 12%since 1981
and down 22% since 1967 (15). Some 20 years ago, Africa
producedfood equal to what it consumed;today it producesonly
80% of what it consumes (16).
Food frommarinesourcesnow providebetween 1%and2%of
the world's supply of food (17, 18) and the amount, including
the contributionfrom aquaculture,is unlikely to double within
the next few decades (JohnRytherpers. comm.).
In line with recent studies (19, 20), we estimate that with the
world populationat 5.5 billion, food productionis adequateto
feed 7 billion people a vegetarian diet, with ideal distribution
and no grain fed to livestock. Yet possibly as many as two
billion people are now living in poverty (V. Abernathy,pers.
comm.), and over 1 billion in "utterpoverty"live with hunger
(7, 10-23). Inadequate distribution of food is a substantial
contributingfactorto this currentsituation.
It is clear from the above review that currentfood supplies,
with present patternsof distributionand consumption, appear
insufficientto provide satisfactorydiets to all, althougha recent
FAO reportindicates that chronic undernutritionin developing
countrieshas improvedsomewhat (24).
It is generallyagreedthat,amonga numberof importantglobal
changes, economic and social well-being must improve for that
largefractionof theworld'speoples now in poverty.This includes
more and better food. A doubling of the population would
necessitate the equivalent of a tripling, or more, of our current
food supply to ensure that the undernourishedwere no longer
at risk and to bring population growth stabilization within
Quality and Degradation: The loss of productive soil has
occurredas long as crops have been cultivated. Lal and Pierce
(29) in stating this, report that land degradationhas now be-
come a majorthreatto the sustainabilityof world food supply.
This loss arisesfrom soil erosion, salinization,waterlogging,and
urbanizationwith its associated highway and road construction.
Nutrient depletion, overcultivation, overgrazing, acidification,
and soil compactioncontributeas well. Many of these processes
are caused or are aggravatedby poor agriculturalmanagement
practices. Taken together or in various combinations, these
factors decrease the productivity of the soil and substantially
reduce annual crop yields (30-32), and, more important,will
reduce crop productivityfor the long term (33).
Almost all arable land that is currently in crop production,
especially marginalland,is highly susceptibleto degradation.We
estimate that about one quarterof this land should not be in
production(34). This is depressing food production,as well as
requiringincreasedfossil energy inputsof fertilizers,pesticides,
and irrigationin an effort to offset degradation.
Soil erosion, a problem throughoutthe world, is the single
most serious cause of degradationof arableland (35-37), owing
Figure 1. World population to 1992, projections to 2050.
OF POPULATION
ESTIMATES
14
12-
UN Projections to 2050
io10- \ High
.2 8 / / Medium
z
0
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _Low

reach in humaneways, without widespreadhungerand depriva-

a.4 Estimatesto 1992
tion. Improvednutritionmay be achieved by dietary shifts and X PopulationReferenceBureau
improved distributionas well as by an increased quantity of
food, as discussed laterin this paper. 2-

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY O0
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Land Resources YEAR
Supply:The world's landdevotedto food productionandin forest
and savannais shown in Table 2.
Less than one half of the world's land area is suitable for Table 1. Consumption of Foods and Feed Grains
(kg - capita-l *year-')
agriculture,including grazing; total arable (crop) land, in use
and potential, is estimated to comprise about 3000 million ha Food/Feed USA' China2 World3
(25). However, nearlyall of the world's productiveland, flat and Food grains 77 239 .201
with water, is alreadyexploited. Most of the unexploitedland is Vegetables 129 163 130
Fruits 46 17 53
eithertoo steep, too wet, too dry, or too cold for agriculture(26). Meat&fish 88 36 47
Dairyproducts 258 4 77
There are difficulties in finding new land that could be ex- Eggs 14 7 6
ploited for agriculturalproduction.Expansionof croplandwould Fats &oils 29 6 13
Sugars &sweeteners 70 7 25
have to come at the expense of forest and rangeland,much of FoodTotal 771 479 552
which is essential in its presentuses. In Asia, for example, nearly Feed grains. 663 100 144
GrandTotal 137 605
6696
80% of potentiallyarableland is now undercultivation (7, 27). Kcal.cap-'day' 3600 2662 2667
In the 1970s, there was a net annual gain in world croplandof 1. (Ref. 100)
nearly 0.7%. The rate of gain has slowed and, in 1990, the net 2. All food item data, except vegetables, were from Reference 101. Feed grains are
from D. Wen, Institute of Applied Ecology, pers. comm., 1992.
annual gain was about 0.35% yr-', largely as a result of de- 3. Reference 102, except for feed grain, which is assumed to be 144 kg caplta' year,.
forestation.As much as 70-80% of ongoing deforestation,both
tropical and temperate,is associated with the spread of agri-
culture. Table 2. Land:Surface ;(Mha') :
For these reasons we estimate that the world's arable land TotalLandSurfaceof the Globe 13 000
could be expandedat most by 500 million ha, or a net expansion Forestand Savannah 4000
AreaUtilizedfor Food Production -4600
of roughly one-third.However the productivityof this new land Pastureand Rangeland 3100
would be much below presentlevels in land now being cropped. CroplandTotal2 1500
At the presenttime humanseither use, coopt or destroy 40% 1. Hvectare
(ha), 1000O0sq. mleters,:
:equals2.47 acres.:
of the estimated 100 billion tons of organic matter produced 2. (Ref. 103). n :
annuallyby the terrestrialecosystem (28).
Ambio Vol. 23 no. 3, May 1994 ? Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 1994 199
to its adverseeffect on cropproductivity.The majorcause is poor
agriculturalpracticesthatleave the soil withoutvegetative cover
to protectit against waterand wind erosion.
Soil loss by erosion is extremely serious because it takes
from 200 to 1000 years, averaging about 500 years, to form
2.5 cm (1 inch) of topsoil (38) undernormalagriculturalcondi-
tions (39-43). Throughoutthe world currentsoil losses range
from about20 to 300 t ha-' yr-', with substantialamountsof ni-
trogenandothervital nutrientsalso lost (44). Topsoil is being lost
at 16 to 300 times faster than it can be replaced(36).
Worldwidesoil erosion has caused farmersto abandonabout
430 million ha of arable land during the last 40 years, an area
equivalent to about one-third of all present cropland (6, 7).
Each year at least 10 million ha are lost to land degradationthat
includes the spread of urbanization(45). For example, Tolba
(46) reportedthat the rate of soil loss in Africa has increased
20-fold duringthe past 30 years.
The estimatedrate of world soil erosion in excess of new soil
productionis 23 billiont yr-', orabout0.7%loss of the world's soil
inventoryeach year (47; Table 3). The continuingapplicationof
fertilizers(48) has so far masked much of the deteriorationand
loss of productivityfrom this process, so that world cropland
yield is remainingroughly constant.This appearslikely to con-
tinue in the next decades. Continuederosion at the currentrate
will resultin the loss of over 30% of the global soil inventoryby
the year 2050, a truly severe damage and loss, obviously unsus-
tainableover the long run.
Erosion reduces the availability of water (31), as well as
nutrientsto growingplantsanddiminishesorganicmatterandsoil
biota (29, 49). Reduction of the water available to growing
plants is the most harmfuleffect of erosion .
Soil degradationis affecting 15%of the earth'scroplandarea
(29). In developing countries,the degradationof soil is growing
worse owing to increasedburningof crop residues and dung for
fuel. This reduces soil nutrients(50, 51) and quickly intensifies
soil erosion.
Water: Resources and Irrigation
Supply and Use: Water is the major limiting factor for world
agriculturalproduction. Crops require and transpire massive
amountsof water.For example, a corn crop thatproducesabout
7000 kg ha-' of grain will take up and transpire about 4.2
million L ha-' of waterduringits growing season (52). To supply
this much water to the crop, assuming no use of irrigation,not
only must 10 million liters (1000 mm) of rain fall per ha, but it
mustbe reasonablyevenly distributedduringthe yearandespeci-
ally duringthe growing season.
Irrigation:Irrigationis vital to global food production:About
16% of the world's cropland is under irrigation. This area
contributesabout one-third of crop production,yielding about
2 '/2times as muchper ha as nonirrigatedland. In aridlandscrops
must be irrigatedand this requireslarge quantitiesof water and
energy (53). For example, the productionof 1 kg of the follow-
ing food and fiber products requires: 1400 liters of irrigation
water for corn;4700 liters for rice, and 17 000 liters for cotton
(54). About 70% of the fresh waterused by humansis expended
for irrigation(55).
Much of the world's irrigated land is being damaged by
salinization and waterlogging from improper irrigation tech-
niques (56). It is sufficiently severe over 10% of the area to
suppress crop yields (57). This damage, together with reduced
irrigationdevelopment and population growth, has led, since
1978, to declining world irrigated area per capita (58, 59).
Serious salinization problems already exist in India, Pakistan,
Egypt, Mexico, Australia, and the United States. Because salt
levels are naturallyhigh in these regions, the problem of salt
build-up is particularlysevere. Recent researchputs the current
loss of world farmlanddue to salinization alone at 1.5 million
200 C Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 1994
Table 3. Gains and Losses of Arable Land (M ha year-')
Forest and Savanna Loss 1 20 (.0.5%. year-')2
Cropland Lost or Abandoned
Erosion 5-7
Urbanization 2-4
Salinization and waterlogging 2-3
Total Cropland Losses3 >10
Cropland Gain (from deforestation) 16
Cropland, Net Gain 5-6
1 (Ref. 104)
2. (Ref. 105)
3. (Ref.45)
ha yr-' (60) or almost 1% yr-', a loss presently being more than
made up by expansion of irrigation. If the damage con-
tinues, nearly 30% of the world's presently irrigated acreage
will be lost by 2025 and nearly 50% lost by 2050, losses increas-
ingly difficult to make up.
Another damaging side effect of irrigation is the pollution of
river and stream waters by the addition of salts.
Water Shortages: Pressures from growing populations have
strained water resources in many areas of the world (59).
Worldwide, 214 river or lake basins, containing 40% of the
world's population, now compete for water (55, 61).
In many areas of the world, irrigation water is drawn from
"fossil" aquifers, underground water resources, at rates much in
excess of the natural recharge rates. The average recharge rate for
the world's aquifers is 0.007% yr-' (62). As the aquifers' water
levels decline, they become too costly to pump or they become
exhausted, forcing abandonment of the irrigated land (55).
Africa and several countries in the Middle East, especially
Israel and Jordan, as well as other countries, are depleting fossil
groundwater resources. China has severe agricultural problems
(13). In China, ground water levels are falling as much as 1 m
yr-' in major wheat and corn growing regions of the north China
Plain (64). Tianjin, China, reports a drop in ground water levels
of 4.4 m yr-' (58, 59), while in southern India, groundwater
levels are falling 2.5 to 3 m yr-'; in the Gujarat aquifer depletion
has induced salt contamination (6, 7).
The prospect for future expansion of irrigation to increase
food supplies, worldwide and in the US, is not encouraging
because per capita irrigated land has declined about 6% since
1978 (57). Greatly expanded irrigation is a difficult, and prob-
ably unsustainable solution to the need for expansion of agri-
culture output (59) because of the rapidly accelerating costs of
irrigation (57).
Greenhouse Effects
The continuing emission of a number of gases into the atmosphere
from human activities, including chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs),
methane, and, most important, carbon dioxide, is now thought
likely to alter the global climate in the years ahead, a con-
sequence arising from the greenhouse effect (65, 66). World-
wide changes in rainfall distribution are expected, including
drying of some continental interiors as well as possible in-
creases in climatic variability.
Increased variability in temperature and rainfall can, in many
circumstances, be damaging to agricultural productivity. There
are expected to be C02-induced effects on productivity and
growth of plants, including crops and weeds, and collateral
effects on plantpathogensandinsect pests. Theremay be decline
or loss of ecosystems that are unable to accommodate a rapid
climate change. The majorimpact will be caused by changes in
rainfall and water availability to crops. Most crops can tolerate
the higher temperatures projected from greenhouse-induced
Ambio Vol. 23 No. 3, May 1994
climate change. The detailed consequences are difficult to
predict,in partbecause the expected global averagetemperature
rise and changes in weatherpatternshave substantialuncertain-
ties. The temperaturerise expected from a doubling of the
atmosphericCO2level-which, in the absenceof carbonemission
controls, will occur a decade or so before the year 2100-is
"unlikelyto lie outside the range 1.5?to 4.50C"(67). If the rise
were only 2?C(a degree of warmingnot experiencedin the last
8000 years),therecould still be pronouncedadverseeffects (68).
The 1988 US experience is enlightening. It was the hottest
year on record to that time which, accompanied by a mid-
continent drought, resulted in a 30% decrease in grain yield,
droppingUS productionbelow consumptionfor the first time
in some 300 years. Similarly, Canadian production dropped
about37% (69).
Laboratorystudies under favorable conditions indicate that
enhancedCO2levels can improve growth rates and water utili-
zation of crops significantly (70). Under field conditions, the
estimatedincreasein yields are projectedto be only one-quarter
to one-thirdof that observed in the controlledgreenhousecon-
ditions without taking into consideration other deleterious
consequences of climate change that also may be present and
yields may, in fact, not improveat all (71).
Ozone Depletion
Ground-levelultravioletenhancementarisingfrom03 loss in the
upper atmosphere from the anthropogenic emission of
chlorofluorocarbonscan affect natural systems' productivity,
alter pest balances, as well as affect the health of humans and
surfaceandmarineanimals.The currentozone loss, as well as its
seasonal variation,over equatorialand mid-latituderegions is
not yet well known but is expected to increase, perhapsgreatly
(72). The US EnvironmentalProtection Agency reported in
April 1991, a winter-spring03 column density depletion of
4.5-5% in mid-latitudes.More recently, there is evidence of a
slow but steadyozone depletionover most of the globe; between
400 and 50?N the decline is as great as 8% per decade (73, 74).
Each percent decrease in 03 results in about a 3% increase in
ground-level ultraviolet intensity. Even if the 03 depleting
chemicalreleases were haltednow, 03 depletionwould continue
to increasefor decades,with effects lastinga centuryor more(M.
McElroypers. comm.).
Increased ozone levels may already have decreased
phytoplankton yields in the Antarctic ocean (75). Plant re-
sponses to ultravioletradiationincludereducedleaf size, stunted
growth,poor seed quality,and increasedsusceptibilityto weeds,
disease, andpests. Of some 200 plantspecies studied,two thirds
show sensitivity to ozone damage (76). A 25% 03 depletion is
expectedto reduceyields of soybean,one of civilization's staple
crops, 20% (77). Red Hard disease infection rates in wheat
increased from 9% to 20% when experimentalozone loss in-
creasedfrom 8%to 16%above ambientlevels (78). Clearly,the
potential exists for a significant decrease in crop yields in the
periodto 2050 from enhancedsurfaceultravioletlevels.
Adjusting to modifications of global climate or to altered
growing conditions, caused by greenhouse gases or from en-
hanced ultraviolet, might stress management of agricultural
systems greatly, especially if wholly new crops, and new pro-
cedures had to be developed for large areas of the world. Im-
portantuncertaintiesin the magnitudesof the effects expected
may persistfor a decade or so.
IMPROVING
THEFOODSUPPLY
Diet Modification
Currentlyruminantlivestock like cattle and sheep, graze about
half of the earth's total land area (79). In addition, about one-
quarterof world croplandis devoted to producing grains and
Ambio Vol. 23 no. 3, May 1994 ? Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 1994
other feed for livestock. About 38% of the world's grain pro-
duction is now fed to livestock (79). In the United States, for
example, this amountsabout 135 million tons yr-' of grain,of a
total productionof 312 million tons yr-', sufficient to feed a
populationof 400 million on a vegetariandiet. If humans,especi-
ally in developed countries,moved towardmore vegetable pro-
tein diets ratherthantheirpresentdiets, which arehigh in animal
protein foods, a substantial amount of grain would become
availablefor directhumanconsumption.
Agricultural Technologies
There are numerous ways by which cropland productivity
may be raised that do not induce injuryover the long term, that
is, are "sustainable"(26, 80-82). If these technologies were put
into common use in agriculture,some of the negative impactsof
degradationin the agro-ecosystem could be reduced and the
yields of many crops increased.These technologies include:
Energy-IntensiveFarming. While continuationof the rapid
increasesin yields of the GreenRevolutionis no longerpossible
in many regions of the world, increasedcrop yields are possible
by increasingtheuseof fertilizersandpesticidesin somedeveloping
countries in Africa, Latin America, and Asia (83). However,
recentreportsindicate a possible problemof declining yields in
the rice-wheatsystemsin the high productionareasof SouthAsia
(J. M. Duxburypers. comm.)
Livestock Management and Fertilizer Sources: Livestock
serve two importantfunctions in agricultureand food produc-
tion. First, ruminantlivestock convert grass and shrubforages,
which areunsuitablefor humanfood, into milk, blood, and meat
for use by humans. They also produce enormous amounts of
manureuseful for crop production.
Soil and Water Conservation:The high rate of soil erosion
now typicalof worldagriculturallandemphasizesthe urgencyof
stemmingthis loss, which in itself is probablythe most threat-
ening to sustained levels of food production.Improved con-
servationof watercan enhancerainfedand irrigatedcrop yields,
as discussed below.
Crop Varietiesand Genetic Engineering:The applicationof
biotechnologyto altercertaincrop characteristicsis expected to
increase yields for some crops, such as developing new crop
varietieswith betterharvestindex and crops thathave improved
resistanceto insect and plantpathogenattack.
Maintaining Biodiversity: Conserving biodiversity of plant
and animal species is essential to maintaininga productiveand
attractiveenvironmentfor agricultureandotherhumanactivities.
Greatereffortis also neededto conservethe genetic diversitythat
exists in crops worldwide. This diversity has proven extremely
valuable in improving crop productivityand will continue to
do so in future.
ImprovedPest Control:Because insects, diseases, and weeds
destroyabout35%of potentialpreharvestcropproductionin the
world (84), the implementationof appropriatetechnologies to
reducepest and disease losses would substantiallyincreasecrop
yields and food supplies.
Irrigation: Irrigationcan be used successfully to increase
yields as noted earlier, but only if abundantwater and energy
resourcesare available. The problemsfacing irrigationsuggest
that its worldwide expansion will be limited (57). Owing to
developing shortages of water, improved irrigation practices
that lead to increased water in plant's root zones are urgently
needed.
Constraints
A numberof difficulties in expandingfood supplies have been
touched on above. Othersare presentedbelow:
There is a need to decrease global fossil-fuel use and to halt
deforestation,in orderto lessen carbonemissions to the atmo-
sphere(85). These steps are in directcompetitionwith the need
201
to provide sufficient energy for intensive agricultureand for Business-As-Usual, or BAU. Populationgrowth is assumed to
cooking and heatingusing firewood. A majordecreasein fossil- follow the UN medium projectionleading to about 10 billion
fuel use by the industrialcountries would require adoption of people by 2050, soil erosion continues to degradeland produc-
new technologies based on new energy sources, with improved tivity, salinization and waterlogging of the soil continues, and
conversion and end-use efficiencies, on a scale that would groundwateroverdraftcontinueswith supplies in some aquifers
require40 years at minimumto implementfully, even in favor- being depleted;there is a modest expansion of croplandat the
able circumstances (86). Yet a three- or fourfold increase in expense of world forests, and a slight expansionof irrigation.In
effective energy services to the earth's peoples would be re- BAU, the consequences of the greenhouse effect and of ultra-
quired to yield the improvementsneeded in the quality of life violet injury are ignored, and the developed world does not
in a world of roughly doubled population.We do not consider provide significantly more aid to the developing world than at
here the considerablechallenge thatthis provides (87). present,nor does the developing world continue,on balance,its
Even assumingthat sufficient fossil or otherfuels were avail- currentrate of economic development(91).
able in the future to support energy-intensive agriculturein A pessimistic scenario considers qualitatively the possible
developing countries, several constraints appear to make this consequences of climatic changes and ground-levelultraviolet
difficult. These include: the high economic costs of the energy radiationincrease that could depress crop yields, coupled with
inputs to those countries that already have serious debt prob- the high UN populationgrowthprojection,leading to nearly 13
lems; the lack of rainfall and/or irrigation water preventing billion people in 2050. The economic debt that many nations
effective use of the inputs;andfarmersin developingnationswho face today continues to worsen, especially limiting developing
are not educatedin the use of intensive agriculturalmethodsand nations in the purchase of fertilizers and other agricultural
who change their ways slowly. goods to enhanceproductivity.
A slowing of deforestationwould mean less new cropland An optimistic scenario assumes rapid population growth
addedto the presentworld inventory,so thatthe processes now stabilizationwith a 2050 populationof 7.8 billion, significant
degrading and destroying croplandcould not be compensated expansionof energy-intensiveagricultureand improvedsoil and
by new acreage. water conservation with some reclamationof now-abandoned
Population growth remains a basic problem. About 0.5 ha land. In this scenario, the developed countries provide the
capita-'of croplandis neededto providea balancedplant/animal developing nations with increasedfinancialresourcesand tech-
diet for humansworldwide (88). For the 1990 populationof 5.5 nology and a more equitable distributionof food is achieved.
billion, only 0.27 ha capita-' is now available and this is likely There is a shift from high animal proteinto more plant protein
to decline further. Moreover, the rate of population growth consumptionin the developed countries,freeing more grainfor
itself, especially in many developing nations, intensifies the the developing nations.
problems of coping with shortages owing to the difficulty of In these scenarios we make use of extrapolationsof current
providingthe economic expansionrequired(89). trendsconsistentwith the rangeof assumptionswe have adopted.
A majordifficulty arises simply fromthe ratewith which food This procedureis inherentlyunsatisfactoryowing both to the
supplies would have to be expandedto pace or to exceed popu- difficulty of determiningtrendsfrom fluctuatinghistoricaldata
lation growthrates in those countriesexperiencinghigh growth and because few trendscontinue for periods comparableto the
rates. In order to stay even with population growth it will be intervalof interestto us. Nevertheless,it does, over a numberof
necessary to expand food supplies, globally, by the rate of po- scenarios,shed light on the rangeof achievablefutures.
pulation increase. For many countries the rate of population
expansion is in the range 2-3% yr-'. As an example, in orderto Business As Usual (BAU)
achieve an increaseof 50% in the per capitafood production,by Grainlanddeclined from 718 million ha in 1980 to 704 million
the end of a population doubling, the rate of expansion of ha in 1991 (92), a decline we assume continues, leading to 620
agriculturalproductionmust be appropriatelylarger. If the po- million ha in 2050. There is 0.06 ha capita-'available for grain
pulation grows at 2% yr-', the food productionmust increase productionin thatyear,or less thanhalf of thatavailablein 1991.
at 3.2% yr-', if it is 3% yr-', the food productionmust grow at This will create major obstacles to increasing grain food pro-
4.8% yr '. duction,especially if land degradationcontinues (Table 3). The
During the GreenRevolution the world grain yield expanded rate of loss we assume is about half that projectedfor the next
at 2.8% yr-'. As noted earlier,this rate of expansionhas slowed 25 years in The Netherlandsreport on the National Environ-
and, it appears,is unlikely to be resumed (90) although some mentalOutlook 1990-2010, (93)
countriesin Asia andLatinAmericaare still gainingtotal annual In BAU, we make the optimistic assumptionthat a modest
increases in grain yield. In the US, which has one of the best expansion of irrigation will continue as it has recently. The
records with corn, the rate of increase from 1945 to 1990 was fraction of land irrigatedin 2050 we estimate will be 18% in
about 3% yr-1.Since 1980, this rate has slowed. However, with BAU, 17%in the pessimistic case, 19%in the optimisticcase.
wheat the record is not as good as with corn; the increase in Estimates suggest that degradationcan be expected to de-
world grain yield is less than 2% yr-1.If the historicalrecordis press food productionin the developing world between 15%
any guide, no nation with a populationgrowth rate above 2% and 30% over the next 25-year period, unless sound conserva-
yr-' has much hope of improving its per capita supply of food tion practices are instituted now, and that the "total loss in
unless it receives very substantialexternal aid and support.Of productivityof rainfed cropland would amount to a daunting
course these rates of increase for both population and food 29%"due to erosion of topsoil duringthe same time period(94).
production,if achieved, cannotbe sustainedindefinitely. Despite the increaseduse of fertilizers,the rate of increasein
grainproductionappearsto be slowing (55, 95). Figure2 shows
the world's grainyield from 1950 to 1991 as well as the percapita
THEFUTURE grain yield (96). In recent years, 1985 to 1991, the total growth
Introduction rate has droppedbelow 1.4% yr-', less than the currentrate of
Projectionsof futuregrainproductiondepend on a host of vari- world population growth. Based on past trends we estimate a
ables most of which are uncertain.It is not possible to make 300% increasein the use of nitrogenand otherfertilizersby the
useful forecasts. As an alternativewe consider three scenarios, year 2050 and about 12%expansionof irrigatedland, consistent
for the periodto the year 2050. The first assumes a continuation with BAU.
of presenttrends, patterns,and activities. This is referredto as In view of the constraintswe have identifiedwe concludethat
202 ( Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 1994 Ambio Vol. 23 No. 3, May 1994
Figure 2. World grain yields, total and per capita, 1950 to 1991. A linear
least square fit to the total yield, made to guide the eye, has a slope
+1.5% yr-1 in the year 1989 (shown). A quadratic fit to the per capita
yield (shown), has a decreasing slope of 1.4% yr-1, in the recent
interval, 1990-1991. See text for further discussion.
Figure 3. Data and projections of world grain yields, 1950-2050. After
1992 the global production rises at 0.7% yr-', according to the
business-as-usual scenario discussed in the text. The per capita yield
employs the UN medium growth case.

WORLDGRAINYIELD WORLDGRAINYIELD
3- 500 4- 500

-450 3.5- Per Capita Yield -450

z'2.5 Per Capita Yield -400 a A
a 4* -400

c-300 3- A, Al 3i -100
o 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~ A
23
<r 2 .5_ A~ 30
-20X
co ~~~~~~~~~
5
S.'
nD 1- - 250 U 22 250

o: 200.5 C Y200e
A -~~~~~~~~~~~150
'co5 150
1 Yield
~~~~~~Global
~0 Global Yield
(50
100 o -100
CD0.5-
0.5- 50
-50

0 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0
0 0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year Year

an expansionof 0.7%yr-'in grainproductionis achievablein the be small, but with developingcountriessufferingdecreasesof as

decadesahead.Withthis rateof expansion,therewouldbe a 50% much as 10%.We believe that, in the periodto 2050, the green-
increase in annualgrainproductionby 2050 comparedto 1991, house effect and ozone loss could togetherdepress grain yields
with the worldpercapitagrainproductiondecreasingabout20%. on a globalbasis by 10%to 20%.We base ourestimates(Table4)
These projectionsare shown in Figure 3. The 2050 per capita on currentrates of croplandloss (Table 3), continueddecline in
number is about the same as it was in 1960. In our scenario, per capitairrigation(59), degradationof irrigatedland (Table3),
however, the industrial world's per capita grain production and continueddecline on the rateof fertilizeruse by some farm-
increasesabout 13%.If the distributionpatternsremainthe same ers in developing countries(26, 99). A moderatecombinationof
as today's, as BAU assumes,thenthe per capitagrainproduction these adverse factors leads to grain productionin 2050 about
in Africa,China,India,andotherAsian nations,will, on average, 15%below BAU. While this representsnearly a 30% increase
decreasemore than 25%. in grain productionover 1991, it means per capita production
In BAU, most developing nations suffer reductions in per would be down over 40%.
capita grain production.Many nations today are not producing There is, in this scenario, little hope of providing adequate
sufficientfood and in this scenariomany more will join them by food for the majorityof humanityby the middle or laterdecades
2050. This conclusion is consistentwith otherassessments(15). of the periodwe consider.
One study concludedthat if the Africanpopulationcontinuesto
grow, and agriculturalproductionremainsroughlyconstant,the Optimistic Scenario (OS)
food producedwould, in 25 years, supportabout50% of its year If rapid population growth stabilizationcan be effected, lead-
2000 population;for the MiddleEastabout60%of its population. ing to a worldpopulationof 7.8 billion insteadof 13 billion by the
In BAU, some developed nations suffer small declines whereas year 2050, then grain productionadequatefor the population
othershave gains in grainproduction. might be achievable. This would require a near doubling of
In general, it appearsthat Africa, as noted earlier,as well astoday's production(Table 4). Soil and water conservationpro-
China and India, will face particularlysevere problems in ex- grams would have to be implemented to halt soil degrada-
pandingtheirfood suppliesin the coming decades.The people of tion and the abandonmentof cropland. Developing countries
these regions are likely to comprise almost two thirds of the would have to be providedwith fossil fuels or alternativeenergy
developing countries', and over half of the world's, population, sources to alleviate the burning of crop residues and dung.
both in 2025 and 2050. Increasingoil andotherfossil fuels for thispurposewill aggravate
The US appears to have the potential of generating food the problem of controlling greenhouse gases. Irrigationwould
surplusesfor some years, a potentialthat it shareswith partsof have to be expandedby about 20%. The area plantedto grains
Europe, including EasternEurope, Canada,and possibly other would be expanded by 20% and the amount of nitrogen and
regions. The longer term prospects are unknown in view of other fertilizers expanded 450%. Both the developed and
difficulties which may appearlater. developing nations would have to give high priority to food
productionand protectingthe environmentso as to maintaina
Pessimistic Scenario (PS) productiveagriculture.The developed countrieswould have to
Scenario PS adopts most of the assumptionsin BAU, but in- help finance these changes and also provide technology to the
cludes severalotherfactorswhich may decreasethe rateof grain developing nations. At the same time, with diet shifts in the
production in the years ahead. If the population growth rate developedworld,the 2050 populationof 7.8 billion mightbe fed
continues only slightly lower than it is today to the year 2050, an adequatediet.
the world populationwill rise to about 13 billion (Fig. 1), more If effortswere madeto tripleworldfood production,compared
thandouble the presentpopulation.A recentanalysis (97, 98) of to today's yield, then all of the above changes would have to be
the consequencesof climatic change on world food production, made, plus increasing the level of energy intensiveness in the
not includingproblemsarisingfrom the availabilityof irrigation developing world's agricultureby 50- to 100-fold. This would
water,concludedthatdecreasesin global food productionwould include a major expansion in world irrigation.Such increases

Ambio Vol. 23 no. 3, May 1994 ? Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 1994 203
appearto be unrealistic.Environmental
degradationfromsuchexpansionscould Table 4. Total Grains
not be constrainedor controlledeven if 1991' 2050
expansion were feasible. Region PS BAU OS
Total per cap. Total per cap. Total per cap. Total per cap.

N. America 336 1200 450 1090 530 1630 600 2320

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Europe 286 569 320 558 340 700 420 1040
Oceania 37 1370 50 980 50 1220 70 2060
The human race now appears to be former USSR 172 589 220 491 300 790 350 1100
gettingclose to the limits of global food Africa 99 146 150 52 200 88 220 131
Lat. Amer. 104 231 150 132 200 217 250 326
productive capacity based on present India 194 226 270 131 320 189 370 280
technologies. Substantial damage China 378 315 480 257 500 330 520 423
Other Asia 276 275 310 101 360 151 400 221
alreadyhas been done to the biological
andphysicalsystemsthatwe dependon World 1865 345 2400 192 2800 280 3200 410
for food production. This damage is Units:Total,millionmetrictons year-';per cap., kg cap-'year-'
1. (Ref. 106)
continuing, and in some areas is
accelerating.Becauseof itsdirectimpact
on global food production,injury and
loss of arableland has become one of the most urgentproblems tives and investments in research and infrastructureas well as
facing humanity. Of these problems, this is perhaps the most socioeconomic and culturalchanges would be requiredfor it to
neglected. become feasible. A majorreorderingof world prioritiesis thus
Controlling these damaging activities and increasing food a prerequisitefor meeting the problemsthat we now face.
productionmust now receive priority and resources commen-
suratewith their importanceif humanityis to avoid harshdiffi-
culties in the decades ahead.
Attemptsto markedlyexpand global food productionwould
requiremassive programsto conserve land, much largerenergy References and Notes
inputsthanat present,and new sources as well as more efficient I. Horiuchi,S. 1992. Stagnationin the decline of the world populationgrowthrateduring
the 1980s. Science 257, 761-765.
use of fresh water, all of which would demand large capital 2. United Nations PopulationFund. 1991. Population, Resources and the Environment,
United Nations, NY.
expenditures.The rates of food grain growth required to in- 3. UNFPA,UN PopulationFund.1991.TheStateof WorldPopulation1991. UN, New York.
crease the per capita food available, in the light of present 4. Homer-Dixon,T.F. 1991. India's populationgrowth rate has leveled off at 2.1%/year
and China's at 1.3%/year.On the threshold:environmentalchanges as causes of acute
projections of population growth, are greater than have been conflict. Inter. Sec. 16, 76-116.
achieved under any but the most favorable circumstances in 5. Long-range WorldPopulationProjections.Departmentof Intemationaland Economic
and Social Affairs. United Nations, New York, 1992, Document Number ST/ESA/
developed countries. SER.A/125.
Our business-as-usual scenario suggests that the world is 6. WorldWatchInstitute.1990.Stateof TheWorld1990.Washington.The430 M haestimated
to have been abandonedduring a 40 year period is furtherconfirmed by the World
unlikely to see food production keep pace with population Resources Institute'sestimationthat 10 M ha/yr of croplandis lost by erosion.
7. A Reportby The WorldResourcesInstitute.1990. WorldResources 1990-1991. Oxford
growth if things continue as they have. If they do continue then UniversityPress,New York.Additionallosses andabandonmentof agriculturallandare
the world will experience a declining per capita food produc- caused by water logging, salinization, urbanizationand others processes as discussed
laterin the
tion in the decades ahead.This decline would include spreading 8. Moffat,A. S.text. 1992.Does globalchangethreatentheworldfood supply?Science256, 1140-
malnutritionand increased pressureon agricultural,range, and 9. 1141.
Malthus,T.R. 1970.AnEssayon the Principleof Population.PenguinBooks, New York,
forest resources. 10. CIMMYT. 1987. The Future Developmentof Maize and Wheatin the Third World.
Should climatic alteration from greenhouse warming and 11. Dahlberg, Mexico, DF.
K.A. 1979. Beyondthe GreenRevolution:the Ecology and Politics of Global
enhancedultravioletlevels impose furtherstress on agricultural AgriculturalDevelopment.Plenum Press, New York.
12. Dahlberg,K.A. 1985.EnvironmentandtheGlobalArena:Actors,Values,Policies. Duke
systems, the prospects for increased food production would University Press, Durham,NC.
become even less favorablethan they are at present. 13. WorldHealthOrganization/United NationsEnvironmentProgramme.1989.PublicHealth
In our opinion, a tripling of the world's food productionby 14. Impact of Pesticides Used in Agriculture.WHO/UNEP,Geneva.
A quantitythatincreaseslinearlyexhibitsa decliningrate of expansion,expressedin per
the year 2050 is such a remote prospect that it cannot be con- 15. cent per year. A constantrate of growth implies exponentialincrease.
Global Ecology Handbook.Beacon Press, Boston, 1990.
sidered a realistic possibility. If present food distributionpat- 16. Cherfas,J. 1990. FAO proposesa new plan for feeding Africa. Science 250, 748.
ternspersistthe chance of betteringthe lot of the majorityof the 17. The 1989 world marinecatch was 99.5 metrictons. CurrentFisheries Statistics#9000,
Fisheries of the UnitedStates, 1990, SupplementalMay 1991,NationalMarineFisheries
world's peoples vanishes. The likelihood of a graceful and hu- Service, NOAA. The estimatein text basedon weight. Less than 1%of worldfood, based
mane stabilizationof worldpopulationvanishes as well. Fertility 18. on calories, is obtainedfrom the aquaticenvironment.
Food Balance Sheets, Food and AgricultureOrganizationof the United Nations, 1991.
and populationgrowth in numerous developing countries will The total yield is considered by the UN Food and AgricultureOrganizationas at the
maximumsustainableyield fromtheoceans. A numberof importantworldfisherieshave
then be forced downwardby severe shortagesof food, disease, startedto collapse.
and by other processes set in motion by shortages of vital re- 19. Kates,R.W. et al. 1988. TheHungerReport.Brown UniversityHungerProject,Brown
University, Providence,Rhode Island.
sources and irreversibleenvironmentaldamage. 20. Kates, R.W. et al. 1989. The Hunger Report: Update 1989. Brown University Hunger
A major expansion in food supply would require a highly 21. Ehrlich, Project,Brown University, Providence,Rhode Island.
P. in On Global Warming,First PresidentialSymposium on World Issues,
organizedglobal effort-by both the developed and the develop- VirginiaPolytechnicInstitute& StateUniversity,September1989. Intheearly 1980sthe
World Bank and UNFAO estimated that from 700 mill. to I bill. persons lived in
ing countries-that has no historic precedent. As yet a major "absolutepoverty."In 1989 the numberwas 1.225B, or 23%of worldpopulation.In that
commitmentfrom the developed nations to supportthe needed year povertyincreaseddramaticallyin sub-SaharanAfrica, LatinAmerica,and partsof
Asia, swamping reductionsin
changes is missing, and inadequate commitment in both de- 22. McNamara,R.S. 1991. RafaelChina and India.
M. Salas MemorialLecture.United Nations, New York.
veloping and developed nations has been made for population 23. Administrative Committee on Coordination - Subcommitteeon Nutrition.1992.Second
Reporton the WorldNutritionSituation,(Vol 1). U.N. United Nations, NY.
stabilization.Governmentsso far appearto lack the discipline 24. StatisticalAnalysis Service, StatisticalDivision, EconomicandSocial Policy Dept., UN
and vision needed to make a major commitment of resources Food and AgricultureOrganization. 1992. World Food Supplies and Prevalence of
Chronic Undernutritionin Developing Regions as Assessed in 1992. United Nations,
to increasefood supplies, while at the same time reducingpopu- New York.
lation growth and protecting land, water, and biological re- 25. Science, Lal, R. 1990. Soil ErosionandLandDegradation:The Global Risks. In:Advancesin Soil
Volume11. Soil Degradation.Lal, R. andStewart,B.A. (eds). Springer-Verlag,
sources. While a rough doubling of food productionby 2050 is New York.
26. Buringh,P. 1989. Availabilityof agriculturallandfor crop and livestock production.In:
perhaps achievable in principle, in accord with optimistic Food and Natural Resources. Pimentel, D. and Hall, C.W. (eds). Academic Press, San
assumptions, the elements to accomplish it are not now in 27. Diego. p. 69-83.
Sehgal, J.L. et al. 1990. Agro-ecological regions of India. Technical Bulletin 24,
place or on the way. A large numberof supportivepolicy initia- NBSS&LUP, New Delhi, 1-76.

204 ? Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 1994 Ambio Vol. 23 No. 3, May 1994
28. Vitousek, P.M. et al. 1986. Human appropriationof the productsof photosynthesis.
Bioscience 36, 368-373.
29. Lal, R. and Pierce, F.J. 1991. Soil Managementfor Sustainability.Ankeny, Iowa: Soil
andWaterConservationSoc. In:Coop.withWorldAssoc.ofSoiland WaterConservation
and Soil Sci. Soc. of Amer.
30. McDaniel,T.A. andHajek,B.F. 1985. Soil erosioneffects on cropproductivityand soil
propertiesin Alabama.48-58. In: Erosion and Soil Productivity.ASAE Publication8-
85. St. Joseph,Ml.
31. Follett,R.F. andStewart,B.A. 1985. Soil Erosionand CropProductivity.Madison,Wl:
AmericanSociety of Agronomy,Crop Science Society of America.
32. Pimentel,D. 1990.Environmentalandsocial implicationsof wastein agriculture.J. Agr.
Environ.Ethics 3, 5-20.
33. Troeh, F.R., Hobbs, J.A. and Donahue, R.L. 1991. Soil and WaterConservation,2nd
Edition.PrenticeHall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
34. Dregne, H.E. 1982. Historical Perspectiveof AcceleratedErosion and Effecton World
Civilization.Amer. Soc. Agron., Madison,Wisc.
35. Economic ResearchService, AR-23. 1991. AgriculturalResources: Cropland,Water,
and ConservationSituationand OutlookReport.US Departmentof Agriculture,Wash-
ington, DC.
36. Barrow,C.J. 1991. Land Degradation.CambridgeUniversityPress, Cambridge.
37. Pimentel,D. 1993. WorldSoil Erosionand Conservation.CambridgeUniversityPress,
Cambridge.
38. 1 cm of soil over one hectareweighs 112 tons and 2.5 cm weighs about280 tons. Thus
a soil loss of 16 t ha-' yr-', as in the US, will resultin the loss of an inch of soil in 17.5
years.
39. Office of Technology Assessment. 1982. Impactsof Technologyon U.S. Croplandand
RangelandProductivity.US Congress,Washington,DC.
40. Hudson,N.W. 1981. Soil Conservation.2nd ed. Comell UniversityPress, Ithaca,NY.
41. Lal, R. 1984. Productivityassessment of tropical soils and the effects of erosion In:
Quantificationof the Effectof Erosion on Soil Productivityin an InternationalContext.
Rijsberman, F.R. and Wolman, M.G. (eds). Delft Hydraulics Laboratory, Delft,
Netherlands.p. 70-94.
42. Lal,R. 1984. Soil erosionfromtropicalarablelandsandits control.Adv.Agron.37, 183-
248.
43. Elwell, H.A. 1985. An assessmentof soil erosionin Zimbabwe.ZimbabweSci. News 19,
27-3 1.
44. EnvironmentDepartment,Policy and ResearchDivision, Oct. 1980. Asia Region: Re-
view of WatershedDevelopmentStrategiesand Technologies.Asia Region, Technical
Development,AgriculturalDivision, Washington,DC.
45. Pimentel,D., Stachow, U., Takacs,D.A., Brubaker,H.W., Dumas, A.R., Meaney, J.J.,
O'Neil, J., Onsi, D.E. and Corzilius, D.B. 1992. Conserving biological diversity in
agricultural/forestry systems. Bioscience 42, 354-362.
46. Tolba, M.K. 1989. Ourbiological heritageundersiege. Bioscience 39, 725-728.
47. Brown, L. 1984. State of the World1984. WorldwatchInstitute,Washington,DC.
48. NitrogenFertilizers.1990.FAOFertilizerYearbook40,44-55, UN FoodandAgriculture
Organization,Rome.
49. Office of Technology Assessment. 1982. Impactsof Technologyon U.S. Croplandand
RangelandProductivity.US Congress,Washington,DC.
50. McLauglin,L. 1994.Soil erosionandconservationin northwestemChina.In: WorldSoil
Erosionand Conservation.Pimentel,D. (ed.). CambridgeUniversitypress,Cambridge.
(In press).
51. Dunkerley,J. et al. 1990. Patternsof Energy Use in Developing Countries.Desai, A.V.
(ed).Wiley Easter,Limited,IntemationalDevelopmentCentre,Ottawa.
52. Leyton,L. 1983.Cropwateruse:principlesandsome considerationsfor agroforestry.In:
PlantResearchandAgroforestry.Huxley,P.A. (ed.). InternationalCouncilforResearch
in Agroforestry,Nairobi, Kenya.
53. Batty,J.C.andKeller,J.1980.Energyrequirementsforirrigation. In:HandbookOfEnergy
Utilizationin Agriculture.D. Pimentel,D. (ed.). CRCPress,Boca Raton,FL. p. 35-44.
54. Ritschard,R.L. and Tsao, K. 1978. Energy and Water Use in IrrigatedAgriculture
DuringDroughtConditions.LawrenceBerkeleyLab.,Universityof Califomia,Berke-
ley.
55. WorldResources1992-93.A Reportby the WorldResourcesInstitute.OxfordUniversity
Press, New York.
56. Pimentel, D. 1980. Title?Ambio. (Hittarej Pimentel som forf. 1980).
57. Postel, S. 1992. Last Oasis: Facing WaterScarcity.W. W. Nortonand Co., New York.
58. Postel,S. 1984. Water:RethinkingManagementinanAge of Scarcity.WorldwatchPaper
No. 62, WorldwatchInstitute,Washington.
59. Postel, S. 1989. Waterfor Agriculture: Facing the Limits. Worldwatch Institute,
Washington,DC.
60. Anonymous 1992. Salt of the earth.TheEconomist323, 34.
61. Gleick, P.H. (ed). 1993. Waterin Crisis:A Guideto the World'sFresh WaterResources.
OxfordUnivsity Press, New York.
62. Global EnvironmentMonitoringSystem. 1991. FreshwaterPollution. UnitedNations
EnvironmentProgramme.Nairobi,Kenya.
63. Smil, V. 1993. China's EnvironmentalCrisis: An Inquiryinto the Limits of National
Development.M.E.Sharpe/EastGate Books, New York.
64. Postel,S. 1990.Savingwaterforagriculture.In:Stateofthe World.WorldwatchInstitute,
Washington,DC.
65. Kerr,R.A. 1992. Greenhousescience survives skeptics. Science 256, 1138.
66. Stone, P.H. 1992. TechnologyReview. p 32, Feb/Marwith additionalcorrespondence,
ibid, May/Jun,p 10.
67. Houghton, J.T. et al (eds). 1990. Climate Change-The IPCC Scientific Assessment.
CambridgeUniversityPress, Cambridge.The supplementaryreport.1992. IPCC 1992
SupplementScience Assessment-January15.
68. Bruce, J.P. 1992. UN official, chairmanof the Science and Technology Committeefor
the UN InternationalDecade for NaturalDisaster Reduction,cited a study projecting
significantclimatic change over several regions in the next 40 years. CentralUS and
EuropeanMediterraneanbasin summertemperatureswould rise 2-3?C accompaniedby
a 15-25% reductionin soil moisture.Reportedat the MIT Conference"The World at
Risk: NaturalHazardsandClimateChange,"MIT,Cambridge,Mass, Jan 14-16, 1992.
69. US Dept. of Agriculture. 1990. Agricultural Statistics. US Gov't Printing Office,
Washington.
70. Martin,P., Rosenberg,N. andMcKenney,M. 1989. Sensitivityof evapotranspiration in
a wheatfield, a forest,anda grasslandto changesin climaticand directeffects of carbon
dioxide. ClimaticChange 14, 117-152.
71. Bazzaz, F.A. and Fajer,E.D. 1992. Plantlife in a C02-richworld.Sci. Am. 266, 68-74.
72. Kerr,R.A. 1992. New assaultsseen on earth'sozone shield. Science 255, 797-798.
73. Levi, B. G. 1992.Arcticmeasurementsindicatethe chilly prospectof ozone depletion.
Physics Today45, 17.
74. Stolarski,R. et al. 1992. Measuredtrendsin stratosphericozone. Science 256, 342.
75. Smith, R.C. et al. 1992. Ozone depletion: Ultraviolet radiationand phytoplankton
biology in Antarcticwaters.Science 255, 952-959.
76. NationalAcademy of Sciences. 1989. One Earth, One Future.Washington.
77. Teramura,A.H. and Sullivan, J.H. 1989. How increased solar ultra-violet billion
radiationmay impactagriculturalproductivity.Proc. of the 2nd NorthAmericanConf.
OnPreparingfor ClimateChange:A CooperativeApproach.Publishedby the Climate
Institute,p 203-207.
Ambio Vol. 23 no. 3, May 1994 ? Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 1994
78. Biggs, R.H. and Webb, P.G. 1986. Effects of enhancedUV-B radiationon yield and
disease incidence and severityfor wheat underfield conditions.NATOASI Series G-8,
Ecological Sciences.
79. Duming,A.T. andBrough,H.B. 1992.Reformingthe livestockeconomy.In:Stateof the
World.Brown, L.R. (ed.). W.W. Norton & Co, New York, p. 66-82.
80. Edwards,C.A. et al. 1989.SustainableAgricultural Systems.Soil andwaterConservation
oci ty, Ankeny, Iowa.
81. Paoletti, M.G. et al. 1989. Agriculturalecology and the environment.Agr. Ecosyst.
Environ.27, 630 p.
82. Starr,C. et al. 1992.Energysources:A realisticoutlook.Science256, 981-987, (especially
985-986).
83. Land,Food, andPeople. 1984. FAOEconomicand Social DevelopmentSeries, 30. UN
Food and AgricultureOrganization,United Nations, NY.
84. Pimentel,D. 1991. Diversificationof biological control strategiesin agriculture.Crop
Protection 10, 243-253.
85. Rubin,E. et al. 1992. Realisticmitigationoptionsfor global warming.Science 257, 148.
86. Union of Concemed Scientists. 1991. America'sEnergyChoices:Investingin a Strong
Economyand a Clean Environment.Cambridge.
87. Holdren,J.P. 1991. Populationand the energy problem.Pop. Environ.12, 3.
88. Lal, R. 1991. Landdegradationandits impacton food andotherresources.In:Food and
NaturalResources.Pimentel,D. (ed.). Academic Press, San Diego, p. 85-104.
89. "Thirdworld countriesare building up populationat a rate no imaginableeconomic
developmentcouldaccommodate"LucienPaye,Headof OECD,quotedin theNew York
Times, July 14, 1990.
90. Borlaug,N.E. 1985.Makinginstitutionswork-ascientist'sviewpoint.In:WaterandWater
Policy In World Food Supplies. Proceedings of the Conference, May 26-30 Texas
University.Texas A&M UniversityPress, College Station,Texas.
91. Anonymous. 1992. Why the poor don't catch up. The Economist323, 48.
92. UN Food and AgricultureOrganization.1991. Table 15. In: FAO Quart.Bull. Stat. 4,
1-103.
93. Stolwijk,H.J.J.1991. De wereldvoedselvoorzieningop de lange termijn:een evaluatie
van mogelijkheden en knelpunten. Onderzoeksmemorandum83. Den Haag, The
Netherlands:Centraal planbureau.The estimates are that 25 m ha of productive
agriculturallandwill be lost to urbanizationand380 m ha to erosionanddesertification,
with 320 m ha of new agriculturalland addedthroughdeforestation.
94. UNFAO Report 1984. Potential Population-SupportingCapacities of Land in the
Developing World.UN Food and AgricultureOrganization,NY.
95. WorldResources. 1992. The WorldwatchInstitute.Washington,DC.
96. UN Food and AgricultureOrganization.1991. Quart.Bull. Stat. 4, 26-27.
97. Rosenzwieg, C., Parry,M.L., Fischer,G. and Frohberg,K. 1993. Climatechange and
worldfood supply.ResearchReportNo.3. EnvironmentalChangeUnit,Univ. of Oxford.
98. Rozenzwieg, C. and Parry,M.L. 1994 Potential impact of climate change on world
food supply.Nature 367, 133-138.
99. UNFAO Report. 1984. Potential Population-SupportingCapacities of Land in the
Developing World.UN Food and AgricultureOrganization,NY.
100. Putnam,J.J. and Allshouse, J.E. 1991. Food Consumption,Prices, and Expenditures,
1968-89. US Dept. of Agriculture,ERS, StatisticalBulletin No. 825, Washington.
101. AgriculturalStatisticalDataof Chinain 1990,AgriculturalMinistryof PRC,Agricultural
Press, Beijing, China.
102. UN Food and AgricultureOrganization1991. Food Balance Sheets. Rome.
103. AgriculturalInputs, 1975-89. 1992. Table 18.2. In: WorldResources 1992-93. World
ResourcesInstitute,Washington,DC.
104. Myers,N. 1989.DeforestationRatesin TropicalForestsand TheirClimaticImplications.
Friendsof the EarthReport,London.
105. Myers,N. 1990. Massextinctions:Whatcan thepasttell us aboutthepresentandfuture?
Global and Planetary Change2, 82.
106. UN Food and AgricultureOrganizationQuart.Bull. Stat. 4, 26-27.
107. The authorswish to express theirappreciationto the following people for theirhelp in
the preparationof this work:V. Abemethy,M. Brower,S. Chisholm,W. Dazong, M. El-
Ashry, P. Faeth,M. Falkenmark,M. Giampietro,R. Goodland,K. Gottfried,S. Harris,
D. Homig, T. Mount,I. Oka,E. Oyer, M. Paoletti,M. Pimentel,P. Pinstrup-Andersen,
T. Poleman, S. Postel, P. Raven, K. Robinson,T. Scott, L. Stifel and N. Uphoff.
108. Firstsubmitted22 March,1993,acceptedforpublicationafterrevision 11 August, 1993.
Henry W. Kendall is J.A. Stratton professor of physics at
the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His principal
research area is particle physics, with over 100 papers
published. He is chairman of the Union of Concerned
Scientists and he has co-authored articles or books on
ballistic missile defense, alternate energy sources,
controlling oil well fires, nuclear reactor safety issues, and
other subjects. He is a 1990 Nobel laureate in physics. His
address: 24-514 MIT,Cambridge, 02139, Massachusetts,
USA. David Pimentel is professor of insect ecology and
agricultural sciences at Cornell University. He has a PhD
from Cornell University. His research spans the field of
basice population ecology, genetics, ecologial and economic
aspects of pest control, biological control, energy use and
conservation, genetic engineering, sustainable agriulture,
soil and water conservation, and natural-resource manage-
ment and environmental policy. He has over 400 scientific
publications. He has served on many national and govern-
mental committees, including National Academy of Sciences,
US Department of Agriculture, US Dept of Energy, US
Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Office of
Technological Assessment, US Congress, and the US State
Department. His address: Dept. of Entomology, Comstock
Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-0999, USA.
205