REGIONAL AND t1RBA.u ECOPIWItS - VO:. 2, No.

3 (1972) 309-326

TRANSPORT PLANNING IN HUNGARY: A MODEL OF

MULTISTAGE-PLANNING OF URBAN PUB! .IC TRANSP0R.T

Geza GY clLAll
Technical University, Budapest

Summary: For the planning of ever-intensifying urban rtransport,the use of up-to-date mathe-
matical tools and the formulation of economic efficiency aspects of decisions between
alternatives becomes imperative. This study presents a selection of mathematical and econo-
metric tools for every step of the planning, demonstrating the convenience of stochastic
models, in view of the random character oi urban pubric transport. Extended modeis of
network theory, based on graph theory, are applied, the synthesis of partial optima being
reached via dynamic programming. Examples are given, related to the planning of a new
residential estate.

1. Aims and tasks of socialist urban transport policy

The causes of the world-wide urbanization process are well known,

together with its two components: an increase in the number of towns
and a relative increase of urban population.
Besides this fact, in Hungarian towns for only one exalmple, transport
needs are generally increasing as measured in number of yearly journeys
per capita. Since 1930, the population in the actual territory of Buda-
pest has increased by 340/o,but transport needs - involving public trans-
port facilities -- have tripled; as a special case, the number of private
cars is increasing at an accelerated rate, one car occupying 12 to 20
times the road surface occupied by public transport passengers. Addi-
tionally, demand tends towards mar;: comfortable traffic, and hence
towards quality requirements.
This situation creates special diffk?llties in Budapest, partly because
of ik many narrow streets, and also because demand for transport
comes second in *Europe after Warsaw. Perspective development plans
provide for an increase of public transport passengers by a factor of
1.22, and for a tripling of cars by 1980, with a much slower increase of
road surface.
310 G. Gyulai, Vansport planning in Hungary

During transportation, the primary aim of the passengers is to save

overall traveiling time, and this coincides with the purpose of transport
enterprises, who aim at savings in vehicle amortization and in labour
costs.
This complex situation justifies the use of up-to-date matherqaticai
methods in traffic planning. Its conditions consist in individuals travei-
iing in a saturated street, and though intricate traffic processes have a
great many individual causes, the aggregate phenomena can be seized
through stochastic models, adaptable to computer techniques.
Transport is intended to overcome space as responding to demands
for displao:ment, the latter being, however, time-bound, which means
that the primary target is to reduce time, especially in iurban passenger
traffic where participants are unwilling to spend much time. Urban
transport policy is defined by the peculiarities of demand: daily, mas-
sive, repeating, heterogeneous, oscillating transport needs over rather
short distances, intermingling with other street-bound activity. The first
two quoted criteria require us to confront urban transport as a service
with other branches of town management, especially characterized by
the inflexibility of everyday demands which must be met “here and
now”. Demands for and appreciation of services depend also on psycho-
logical factors; the calculated results are often seen to be affected by
some subjective effects, which are to be numerically approximated so
that they can be incorporated into the computation of a complex opti-
mum.
With all these factors in mind, urban transport policy, by its peculiar-
ities, is almost self-contained among traffic branch policies, being
rooted in socioeconomic aspects. It is intended to exert a comprehen-
sive and purposeful fundamental directing effect on the town and its
environment as part of the national transport policy, so as to meet
justified displacement needs as part of town management requirements,
at a standard conforming to the actual situation, and at the lowest
possible cost, as state transport enterprise costs are finally borne by the
population.
The centralized unique national plan permits the design of a complex
transport process on these bases, partly to provide for the overall opti-
mum economic efficiency and capacities necessary, and partly for a
scheduled, proportional development between branches of national
economy, and between transport branches. A planned economy allows
for the elimination of useless, unreasonable transport, reducing trans-
port costs and disengaging transport capacities.
 G. Gyulai, IPansport phnning in Hungary 311

2. Stochastic models of operations research in the planning of urban

transport develoyments

Transport process1planning requires a twc&age study. First, a certain

number of planning steps have to be considered, from charting flows to
drafting a time-tablle of planned relations. Secondly, a choice between
models and methods of operations research is to be made.
First, the t&n of thoughts and steps of &~~sport process planning is
reti;apituiated, in order to determine correctly the list of fundamental
relations; together with the related conditions.
( 1) At end points and junctions of the transport system, starting
from the number of passengers driven by some “motive” and pre-
assessing the perspective development, the magnitude of passenger
flows between every two points of the system is computed by anaiog
models, or from the results of interviews.
(2) Expenditure characteristics are determined for any route ele-
ment, and their statistical distribution is determined. in planning new
processes, or if time does not permit any more involved computations,
the optimum route between any two points is determined according to
the Vandorf principle, aiming at minimum travel time within the limits
of economic efficiency.
(3) The ilows are distriboutcd over optimum routes by accepting that
not all passengers find their optimum route, or may have psychological
or other reasons for considering other factors than time-saving. From
these combinations and the alternatives given by statistical distributions
“loads” are determined, and summed up for each section; comparing
them with available capacities, the entire operation is repeated by re-
distributing passenger overspill given that the delaying effect of undesir-
able congestion might encourage passengers to bypass the public trans-
port system.
(4) A direct action for the planned flow has to be decided on. In
positive cases, planning of terminals and junctions is involved, or else
recalculation k needed to consider time increases due to changed
routes, combined with a time equivalent for “change discomfort”.
(S) The vehicle type, decided upon capacity aspects and economic
efGciency, n”lust be co-ordinated with the resulting traffic relations.
(5) Operations research problems involve provision for personnel and
terminals for the resulting traffic relation, taking optimum siting and
capacity of terminals into consideration.
312 G. Gyulai, Tkanspwt planning in Hungary

Statistical distribution cuxves will then be applied to plan time-

(7)
tables for the traffic relations; one has to know the distribution forms
of passenger flow elements, as well as of reserve needs setting probabili-
iy limits for some occurrence frequencies.
The steps as set forth above are restricted by economic efficiency
considerations; partial optima will be synthesized by dynamic pro-
gramming as a complex multistage optimum is to be aimed at.
Amo:lg model groups of operations research, network techniques on
the concepts and properties of graph theory as a topological model
guide the first steps of transport process planning up to routing the
relation (steps 1 to 4). Flows are investigated on an isomorphic graph
by meiins of a concrete geographical, geometrical network. Network
theory has been successfully applied in intricate organizational and
work processes, e.g. for examining critical transit times.
In the 5th step - vehicle demand calculations - a game model first
helps to find the most economic types of vehicle. Within this range, the
vehicle excess needed for technical reasons will be found by a simula-
tion method; finally, the economically advisable life-time of the vehi-
cles and the volume of new purchases will be approximated by a re-
placement model.
In addition to vehicles, the traffic relations determined have to be
supplied with personnel and terminals (step 6). These being problems of
allocation, they can in most cases be solved according to the tmnsporta-
tion model, using some linear programming algorithm. Terminal capaci-
ty can be determined by using the “multichannel” method of queueing
theory, again with some economic optimum limits.
Step 7 is a straightforward application of mathematical statistics.

3. Use of network techniques in some steps of @nsport planning

A transport network is called a fini’;e, complete and coherent graph

when every arc is supplied with an expenditure characteristic c or,
figuratively, with “resistance”. A transport system constitutes a graph
with nGdes as junctions and arcs as connecting relation.
In transport uses the graph is generally directed, and its uses in
transport process planning can be classified according to the following
problem domains: (1) finding vehicle flows of given magnitude at a
minimum expenditure; (2) to this aim, use of analog models based on
 G. Gyuiai. Tramporr planning in Hungary 313

given postulates; (3) finding maximum fiows between given certain

capacity limits; (4) use of alPscation models and ;familtonian paths; (5)
finer partition problems: decomposition of graphs into subgraphs.

3.1. Generation oj’passenger flows between twcd end poirlts

A transport flow is an intricate flow #renomenon generated by the
interference of moving elements and tr;fiic routes. Passenger flows can
be considered to be knoa;vn if quantity ..nd quality characteristics are
given, the factors that influence them zr,d generally if a mode%of their
correlation t,r, the characteristics is available; so first, influencing factors
of passtmger transport needs are to be considered. The model describing
the correlati&Bn between influencing factors and probable developments
is an index equation with partial elasticities as exponents (Kadas, 1965)
or another procedure grouping factors according to motives, duly
weighted.
An example, taken from K%das( 1965) is the following:

the f’s being indices, with stretch L: population, H: length, 7’1 real
(relative) fare, and B: relative real wages.
Numerical values of coefficient. c (in fact, a:) integration constant)
and of the elasticities, according to vehicle types, based CM 1956 stand-
ards can be seen in table 1, which is self-explanatory.
Using expression ( 1) to calculate travel trends yields a logistic curve
closely approximable by a logarithmic trend for the Budapest situation.
From detailed sociological survey data on new residentiai estates, the
expected daily passenger numbers along the traffic route of a new
housrag estate could be constructed acccrding to a micro-economic
approach; it averaged 1.23 buses per resident, The figure is I.7 in indus-
trial distri&s and almost 6 in administrative districts. To determine the
number of journeys in a district, and predict the interflows that may be

Tab!e 1

C El F2 e3 p4

Streetcar 10-l.82 1.19 0.6R -0.05 O.O?

Bus 10-8.0S 4.29 0.4!5 -0.62 0.89
Total 1*-3.a3 1.96 0.55 --0. 17 0.17
314 CL Gydai, 7kansportplanning in Hungary

expected, various known “attraction” and probability models are in

use, where multiplying fa+rs and exponents of the Newtonian type
depend on the town make-up and the travel motives.

3.2. Expendi f we characteristics and oprimum ,w,:k

For graph arcs i.e. route sections, the so-called expenditure character-
istics are time, cost or energy consumption, and distance. But, in view
of the general travel aim, i.e. displacement, time needs are preferred,
taking time losses and inconvenience equivalents for changing at stops
and junctions into account.
Here, also, me must consider psychological factors, and attempt to
make them nl;;rberically evaluable to play their part in compuiing an
optimum.
This is especially important in planning daily urban travels. For in-
stance, experienced averages seem to be secondary, compared to ex-
tremes; if instead of a “normal” travel time of 5 min, three times out of
ten, 8 mln will be experienced, then the 5 min time will be ignored, and
the 8 min retained, rather than the 5.9 min average. For people in a bad
mood, or in a hurry, waiting time is felt to be three times the actual
one! Analyses based on circumstances helped to approximate “route
attraction” by multiplicative factors reducing travel times, a thing to be
reconsidered later.
The shortest-time route between two points, called erroneously “op-
timum” in the literature, will now be examined. In fact, this “mini-
mu&-time” route will only be optimum if it corresponds to the results
0; mL&nGing the overall costs of time reduction. Minimum time routes
can “oe rL,und using different algorithms; network techniques (Moore,
Korondi) superposing in ?urn the sections of least time demand; matrix
multiplication (Hasse); or graph methods (Sollin). Also critical path
methods can be applied, except that, instead of the longest path, the
least value in the matrix is selected. The problem can also be handled
by some PERT method, except that the beta-distribution of time assess-
ments-is replaced by the normal distribution of travel times; the ex-
pected value and variance of the travel times on the whole route will be
the sums of the corresponding r;alues for each section.
It is impossible, however, in gelkeral, to obtain time savings without
serious cost increases; the question then arises whether the shorter time,
longer bypass road, will not involve costs which, charged to passengers,
could cause them to renounce short-time travel? It can be assumed
 G. Gyulai, iVansport planning in Hunguy 315

Fig. 1. Program of route optimizing.

that most passengers take the most convenient rouf.e, taking all aspects
into consideration, including financial charges to the us%. Advantages
and disadvantages of the two route alternatives can be seen in table 2.
(I) Along the route of shortest travel time t2 and of greater length
h,, there is a lower charge per passenger for vehicle amortization and

Table 2
-- --
k!orlte 1 Route 2
---
h length shorter longer
t travel time Longer shorter
s speed lower higher

(1) vehicle amortization higher lower (time-bound)

(2) track costs lower higher (length-bound!
(31 labour and operating costs: length-bound lower higher
power losses higher lower (congestions)

(4) passenger time required higher lower (duration)

316 G. Gyuhi. 7kansport planning b Hungary

wages, because vehicles return faster ( 1), but (2) there are h.igher amor-
tizat;or. a:id maintenance costs for the greater track Lengths. Power
costs (3) show two opposite trends: a priori they seem higher for the
longer route, but the short route is affected by many starts and stops
and slow driving. Viewed from a national economy level (4), money
equivaJents of passenger time savings calls for route k, I and in fact, it is
more economical to select the longer route if the sum of cost differ-
ences (2) and (3) does not exceed differential savings (rows 1 + 4). This
is the economic optimum criterion of route selection, a route being
optimum in the strict sense of the word, since pure time savings are
considered together with other factors.

-3.3. Distribution of trips between route alternatives

In the preceding reasoning, a single optimum route between two
points has been determined, but not all passengers choose the best
route - from travel time or more complex considerations - but may
select alternatives. Erroneous selection, based on bad estimates of travel
time, may result in taking other than optimum routes, number of pas-
sengers being usually normally distributed between routes. If the distri-
bution is different, this is due to the interference of other circum-
stances, repulsion originating in estimated time losses, inconvenience of
change-overs, probable congestions, ought to be taken into account for
the estimation of travel time.
Postulates derived from graph theory show that both Kirchhoff laws
known from physics lend themselves to the construction of an analog
model, describing the scatter of flows around an optimum route, 6
exponents being sufficient to dampen “resistance” (section-time ef-
fect), based on the observation of passengers’ behaviour. Also, it is not
worthwhile to compute thz distribution for more than 3 routes.
Distribution among parallel routes is illustrated by the planning of
mass transport for the Rakospalota (suburb of Budapest) housing es-
tate. Out of the 69000 daily trips, 4960 are directed to the district of
code no. 633. Based on a travel time t, = 30 min, the minimum-time
criterion selected the Metro terminal.
The problem is to know how this passenger number, calculated for a
single optimum route, would be distributed among alternative routes,
i.e, what percentage would in fact take the Metro. According to the
quoted Kirzhhoff-model, out of the daily 4960 passengers the number
 G. Gyulai, Tiansport planning in Hungary

housug
estole
lh. cl

633

Fig. 2. Distribution of passengers actording to motives.

taking the optimum route with time to would amount to:

1/t: 49601 I /306)

_.___
Uo = u -=
t/z rp l/306 i” 11346 + l/356 + l/58”

= 2580 or 52%. (2)

Because of (2) the optimum route has to be shifted in the figure,
because of time increase due ts this change. If streetcar relations from
Rfikospalota would lead directly to the Inner City, rather than to the
Metro, then the previous number of 2580 passengers: would decrease
(because of changes in the data of eq. (2) to:
l/336
= 1420.
4960 - l/356 + l/376 + l/30” + l/536
318 G. Gyh ‘3. 7kansporr pbming in Hungary

Correcting, however, the original optimum route (for shopping oppor-

tunities, iilumination, etc.), with a ‘“psychology factor” of 0.67 to COP
rect gross travel time, the Metro percentage would increase from 52 to
67%; if this route would involve a capacity limit of 2000 instead of
2580 passengers from Rgkospalota, the remaining 580 (with the excep-
tion of 14 passengers) would be redistributed so as to take the paraUe1
trolleybus line, in principle an undesirable feature. Fig. 2 shows passen-
ger numbers for alternative sections, calculated under the assumption
that half the transport density has to wait for change-avers, with 2 min
of fatigue equivalent. The mentioned density is indicated by thin
ciphers in fig. 2.
Optimum route flows between each two !$nts, and their parallel
distributions, are charged to sections and summed for each section; irk
the most favorable case, each section has the capacity to transport it i
assigned load. A possible target function of linear programming is the
following: the product of section characteristics by the allocated trans-
port quantity should be minimum, side conditions being maxima of
output and input quantities, and possibly capacity limits. If sections
have been loaded beyond their capacity, they have to be disconnected
from the system, and the remaining passenger number to be redistrib-
uted.
The total forwarding ability between two extreme points of the en-
tire system of sections, adequately loaded and connected, can be deter-
mined by the Ford-Fulkcrzion algorithm from network technique
models, using as basic inputs the capacity of each section.

3.4. Network technique and linear programming in relation to routing

In the previous sections, routing served, in fact, as a basis for tp.king
action - step 4 of planning; after finding passenger numbers for each
optimum route, or parallelly distribured flows, one has to decide on
direct action, taking economic limits and criteria into consideration.
Such action can be numerically decided on by economic efficiency
considerations; so, for instance, along long stretches, uneven spacings
arise from the so-called “nonius”’ effect, and they have a relative low
exploitation coefficient. Resulting cost increases for these long stretch-
es are called componerlt 1.
 G. Gyuloi, 7kansport phnning in Hungary 319

There are also counter-effects, since cost component II involves cost

increases for the amortization of terminal buildings and their site at
junctions of halved sections. Also supplementary time spent by pasaen-
gers should be recomputed in cost equivalents. The confrontation of
these elements helps to decide on the introduction of new terminals; if
this is not done, it will result in too long, strongly scattered sections,
and spare carriages in addition to the calculated seai needs.
In addition, the network approach may be applied in timetable con-
struction, to minimize performance (in seats/km) or changes. All cases
lead to either linear or non-linear programming, the first case being
solved by the classical transport problem model.

3.5. Other topological models

Lastly let us notice that network techniques are applied in other
fields of urban road traffic too, to ease public transport. For the sake of
completeness, let us mention some examples from this field, paraliel to
that of mass transport. ,
(a) Travelling salesman problems, consisting in computing the way to
reach given points minimizing total tk,avel length, can be solved by the
so-called inversion method of Croes.
(b) A Hamiltonian path, according to graph theory concepts, is a
“path” passing only once through each vertex of the examined continu-
ous finite graph, and its minimum is sought for by so-called “Latin
multiplication”.
(c) In a chapter of the work by Nemchinov on the “Uses of mathe-
matics in economic research”, Lurye app1ie.s six rules and a graphic
method to minimize transport performances in the following “transport
scheme”. In the so-ealled graphs-analytic homocentric system, it cbuld
be stated, without summing up transport performances, that if the
length II of the “prevalent” transport direction exceeds the sum of
transport sections M of the circle in the other direction and of sections
without transport Sz, i.e. U>M f Sz, then in that scheme, transports in
the anti-prevalent direction are to be modified one by one until finally
the bdmce between savings and losses per section is positive. We call
“prevaknt” the direction with the longer transport.
(d) The cl=‘. kta1 t ransport problem, formulated as: “how to distribute
goods to k transported or vehicles between destinations so as to mini-
mize total tnmspcbrt cost or vehicle assignment”, as a specially struc-
320 G. Gyulai. 7Pansporr phnning in tiung~~y

Fig. 3. Homocentric method.

tured network problem. Of course, only destination places should have

demands and no capacity of any starting place should be exceeded.
According to graph theory, this means finding a flow of maximum
value requiring minimum cost over a real network, a problem which
lends itself to matrix expression.
The “transport problem” can be considered as a more general mods1
type, applicable also to non-transport problems, consisting in minimiz-
ing a conditioned objective function within network, distribution and
allocation problems. Still in the field of transport planning, possible
cases are the following:
C1) Distribution of materials on some sort of minimum transport crite-
rion.
(2) Distribution of transport media so as to reach destinations with a
“minimum” performance, e.g. time.
(3) Assignment of transport means so as to result in a total maximum
transportation capacity.
(4) Determination of the optimum capacity of plants so as to minimize
total production and transportation costs.
(5) Optimum siting of distribution places so as to optimize some trans-
port function.
(6) Establishing a sequence of transport tasks.
17) Optimum concentration and exploitation of transmission capacity,
this time quadratic programming is used.
(8) Dual transport problems: computation of a maximum value increase
due to transport so as to exceed transport costs.
Optimization of ‘transport flows may aim at minimizing total trans-
port performance, work, time, distance, power or cost.
 G. Gyulai, 7hmspor~ planning in ;$ungary 32i

Also in planning publi!: transport, the transport model cornIrr .:Qw’

in: section tracing, and itr relation to this, in personnel appointsr1eg.t.
and in combining long-distance bus journeys so that personnel z$~;ld
always finish their duty at the terminal nearest to t’heir quarters.

4. Other optrations research models in urban transport

Leaving now the field of network techniques, and related methods

and models, the planned sections have to Se cupplied with vehicles,
personnel and terminals. Knowing the number of passengers, the type
of vehicle to be app!ied O!YI the different seh:tions has to be detetmined,
taking in& consideration capacity limits and vehicic standards. Random
factors suggest game theory for selecting strategies, while siting of ter-
minals and optimum assignment of cars and personnel arc allocation
problems, lending themselves to linear programming methods.
A decision matrix for deciding on the relative economic efficiency of
tran+Drt media is constructed, so that the rows =kiconcern the vehicle
type in question, the columns bj containing c’ecisissn parameters such as
costs, traffic intensity, fare standards, etc. So t&c i&ancc, an optimum
pure strategy was found at row u3 indicating !.Bititthe bus 2:ad tc be
selected; in the Sam3 case, allowing for probaXS;r J p I = 25%, p2 = 50%
etc. of the decision parameter, the bus was again tale o&come.
After having chosen the most economical ve’:i& type and knowing
its unit capacity, ihe number of vehicles needec !‘or the traffic, and the
reserve necessary to offset delays, will be computed as a function of
journey time. This latter has to be increased by the number of cars
unfit to bc on the road Obviously, vehicles cannot be assigned for
yearly overhaul on the basis of yearly mean running, since - as chi2
tests for different cases proved - performances in km between ovcr-
hauls, but also daily runnings, follow normal distributions, so that the
number of vehicles to be overhauled at intervals results from the super-
position of two distributions; Monte Carlo simulation methods are used
here.
Optimum r&placement time is computed minimizing total costs per
unit time. This cost is composed of purchase, operation, repaii and
maintenance costs, deducting scrap values, and discounting for costs
over time.
Finally, breakdowns in line, reguiring shop repair and meaning longer
322 G. Gyulrri,Transportplanning in Hutgary

absences, have to be made up from shed reserves; a linear regression on

running length could be established. For Tr-5 type buses, Y = 4.18 x
(’1000 km) with r = 0.9 1, and for motor breakdowns alone:

Y= 133+0.82x. i3)

Personnel and terminals are computed from allocation models, solved

by linear programming.
Personnel appointment is a problem similar to that of car assignment,
except. that it is a two-step problem. Attempts to minimize service
travels means not only computing the appointment of traffic workers
of given residential areas to certain terminals, but vice versa, computing
the location of residential areas, supplying given garages. Solution is
obtained by linear programming, the matrix elements being distances in
km and the objective function to be minimized, the sum of unproduc-
tive service routes.
Establishment of terminals is a problem of siting and capacity, with
due regard to the known requirements. The train of thought is oppo-
site to that for personnel appointment, terminal siting having to be
derived from known residential or industrial areas with a minimum of
total walking. The solution follows the VIAL model method, minimiza-
tion being obtained by putting partial derivatives equal to zero. Again,
transport planned for the Rgkospalota housing estate will be taken as
an example. This housing estate consists of three neighborhood units Pt
to P3 ; distances of their gravity centers to the planned terminal will be
obtained from the coordinates by means of the Pythagorean theorem;
in fact, a minimum sum of passenger km, weighted by the population
number of each neighborhood unit, is gained at, wherep is the pop&la-
tion number of the given neighborhood unit, the partial derivatbves
being put equal to zero.
v---P

v=p,J(x-x,)2t (Y-.v$ +p2fi-x2)2 W-Y212

+ p3t/cc~3)2
+(v-y312 ; (4)

av= ~pi
ax
COs~i =O and
aV
SF’ zp, sir. ,bi = 0. (5)

This model is simpler to solve graphically, i.e. by plotting popula-

 G. GYutri, Transport phnrtirtg in Hungary 323

3KIo:zY~:~-sin~,:sh+~

Fig. 4. Allocation of a new terminal at RBkospalota by ‘the VIAL-metho&

tions as sides of a triangle; since the triangle is arbitrarily sited, angle

sides are traced on tracing paper and rotated to fit the points.
Terminal capacity and number of tracks are obtained from a queuing
model, using multichannel formulae. Again a compulation for passen-
gers from the Rakospalota housing estate, in 10 min time units, termi-
nal capacity is ~1 = 5, the arrival rate X = 4, hence p = 4/S = 0.8, the
arrival/capacity ratio.

Table 3

Two-track terminal is likely

Single-track terminal is inadmissible
to be satisfactory (S = 2)

po= I -p=O.2=2O%(few) 43%

P2
u = E= OS= 3.2 (much) 0.15

A = 5 = g = 4 (carriages) 0.95 (sufficient)

T = u/h = 3.214 = 0.8.13 = 8 min (much) 0.4 (good)

P = 1 -PO = 0.8 = 80% (much) 23% (sufficient)

From the point of view of an economic optimum, however, this best

probability limit, p, cannot be an arbitrary one, but it has to be con-
fronted with the vehicle waiting costs, the amortization of building, or
the overall improvement of the transport service by means of a so-called
global cost function.
324 G. Gyulai, 7kansport planning in Hungury

5. Multi-stage synthetization of partial optima

Knowing the partial optima deduced above, the problem is that of a

complex optimum decision based on the determination of a common
optimum for the entire process. Isolated optimization is not rational; an
overall optimum, resulting from the confrontation of total expenditures
on all components with overall achievements has to be searched for, in
other words, an expenditure of the performance ratio, synthetized at
the national economy level, should be minimized.
Therefore, one has looked for correlation between the decision pa-
rameters xk occurring for partial optima, in the different stages of the
exercise. Because of these correlations, the simple logic of the previous
sectors was described, and, moreover, there are feedback effects, lead-
ing to iterations. Only the optimum track number in terminals is inde-
pendent of parameters in other subsystems.
A much greater difficulty is implied, however, by multilane service,
due to the possible diversion of traffic to an alternative route. it also
includes the case where a single type of transport is replaced by multiple
types, (e.g., tram and bus). If the computation of the correlation becomes
too long, we must re-start the whole exercise.
Obviously this is a multistage decision problem, and steps U of the
recurrence relation w of dynamic programming will be, in their order:

U, : selection of vehicle type based on passenger number, hence, opti-

mum rotation time, taking amortization into account;
U2 : economic analysis of the optimum routes;
U3 : multilane service and problems of horizontal co-operation;
U4: examination of the optimum section length on the established
route from the viewpoint of change-overs;
Us : computation of journey times of established sections and optimum
reserves.

According to the model of dynamic programming, m = 5 operation

steps would arise, but if diverting from a jammed route would involve
decisions for one stage by other than the previous conditions, the
sphere of parameters k of the system has to be extended. In conformi-
ty with dynamic programming, eptimization proceeds backwards from
step 5, and the model will be:

(6)
 G. Gyulai, l’kansport planning in Hungary 325

Footnote

’ Nonius effect is encountered in urban mass transport where vehicles of two different
relations travel over a common road section. Headways between consecutive vehicles of two
different relations are not equal, even if the schedule is exactly observed. [For instance, let cars of
relation A start each 7 min and those. of relation B each 5 min; a given point of the common section
will be crossed at 00 mln (A and 8). OS min (B), 07 min (A), 10 min (B), 14 min (A) 15 min
(B) etc., thus, subsequent headways will be 0,5,2,3,4 and 1 min.%

References

Busacker, R.G. and T.L. Saaty. 1968. Finite Graphs and Networks (McGraw-Hill, New York).
Croes, G.A. 1958. A method for solving travelling-salesmanproblems, Operations Research.
Gyulai, G. 1969. Role of operations research in planning urban transport, K&lek6destudo-
dnyi Szemle 19,533 (in Hungarian).
Gyulai, G. 1970. Einige Anwendungen der Netzwerktechnik im Stadtverkehr, Periorr’icaPoly-
techniea 14,25 1.
HungarianTransport Policy. 1969. Kozdok Publication, Budapest (in Hungarian).
Juhnke, K. 1966. Public relations im offentlichen Personen-Nahverkehr, Stadtverkehr 11,129.
Kadas, K. 1965. The new tasks and new methods of transport statistics in the quantitative
analysis of interregional economic relations (Internat. Stat. Institute, Becgrad).
Kaufmann, A. 1962. Wthodes et mod&s de la recherche op&ationnelle (Dunod, Paris).
Nemchinov, V.S. 1959. Priemenije matematiki v ekonomichesskih issledovanijah (Sozialnc+
economicheskoj, Moscow).
Patz, S. 1939. Linienfuluung (Wl’P Publication, Zurich).
Potthoff, G. 1965. Verkehrsstriimungslehre, “3” (Transpress, Berlin).
Sarov, S.1. 1922. Voprasy ekonomiki i planitiwanija kommunalnogo hozjajstva (Moscow).
Ventcel, E.S. 1964. Elementy dinamichsskogo programmirovanija (Nauka, Moscow).