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9.

Project Human Resource Management

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.4.13
9.1
Develop Human Resource Plan

` Define how to manage staff for the project.

` Determines project
` Roles
ources

` Responsibilities
Human Reso

` Required skills

` Reporting relationships

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.4.13
9.1
Develop Human Resource Plan

Inputs
.1 Activity Resource
q
Requirements
.2 Enterprise Environmental
Factors
.3 Organizational Process Assets T&T
.1 Organization Charts and
Position Descriptions
ources

.2 Networking
.3 Organizational Theory
Human Reso

Outputs
.1 Human Resource plan

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3.4.13
9.1
Develop Human Resource Plan
ources
Human Reso

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.4.13
9.1
Develop Human Resource Plan: T&T
.1 Organization Charts and Position Descriptions
` Every work package one Single Owner

` Each team members has a clear understanding


of his/her role and responsibilities
ources
Human Reso

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.4.13
9.1
Develop Human Resource Plan: T&T

PM RAM Role ___________


Responsibilities_____
__________________
__________________
__________________
__________________
Authority __________
__________________
ources

_________________
Human Reso

Hierarchical-type Matrix-based Text-oriented


Organization Chart Responsibility Chart Format

Fig 9-4, PMBOK® 220


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3.4.13
9.1
Develop Human Resource Plan: T&T

RACI
PERSON
Chart

ACTIVITY Molham Obaidah Rateb Omar Waddah

Prepare A R - I I

Blue Print I A R C C
ources

Realize I A R R C
Human Reso

Go Live A I I - I

R = Responsible A = Accountable C = Consult I = Inform

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3.4.13
9.1
Develop Human Resource Plan: Outputs
.1 Human Resource Plan
` When and how HR requirements will be achieved
It contains
` Staff Acquisition
` Time Table: Ex. Resource Histogram
` Release Criteria
ources

` Recognition and Rewards


` Training Needs
` Compliance
Human Reso

` Safety

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.5.3
9.2
Acquire Project Team
` Is the process of confirming human resources availability,
and obtaining the team necessary to complete the project
assignments.
` PM team may or may not have power over team
members chosen for the project.
` PM should negotiate and influence others who are in
position to provide the required HR for the project.
ources

` Failure to acquire the necessary HR may affect project


schedule budgets,
schedule, budgets customer satisfaction
satisfaction, quality and
Human Reso

risks, it may cause the project to fail.


` If HR are not available, alternative resources should be
assigned, even with lower competencies.

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.2.3.3
9.2
Acquire Project Team (Cont…)

Inputs
.1 Project Management Plan
p
.2 Enterprise environmental factors
.3 Organizational Process Asset

T&T
.1 Pre-assignment
.2 Negotiation
ources

.3 Acquisition
.4 Virtual Teams
Human Reso

Outputs
.1 Project Staff Assignments
.2 Resource Calendars
.3 Project Management Plan
(updates)

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.5.3
9.2
Acquire Project Team
ources
Human Reso

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.5.3
9.2
Acquire Project Team: T&T (Cont…)

.4 Virtual Teams
` Groups of people
` Have common goal
` With little or no time spent meeting face to face

` Creates new possibilities


ources
Human Reso

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.5.4
9.3
Develop Project Team
` Improve project performance by enhancing team
members
` Competencies
` Relations
` Interactions
ources

` Objectives
` Enhance skills of team members Î increase their
Human Reso

capability to complete project activities


` Enhance feelings among team members Î increase
productivity through superior team work

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.2.3.4
9.3
Develop Project Team (Cont…)

Inputs
.1 Project Staff Assignments
.2
2 Project Management Plan
.3 Resource Calendars
T&T
.1 Interpersonal Skills
.2 Training
.3 Team-building Activities
ources

.4 Ground Rules
.5 Co-location
.6 Recognition and Rewards
Human Reso

Outputs
.1 Team Performance
Assessment
.2 Enterprise Environmental
factors updates

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3.5.4
9.3
Develop Project Team
ources
Human Reso

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.5.4
9.3
Develop Project Team: T&T (Cont…)

.3 Team-building Activities
` Varies from a few minutes meeting agenda item to a well
f ilit t d off-site
facilitated ff it experience
i
Î Improves interpersonal interactions
` It is important to promote informal communications and
activities
Î because it assists building trust and establishing good
ources

working relationships
` Team building strategies are for the most part important for
Team-building
Human Reso

virtual teams

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.5.4
9.3
Develop Project Team: T&T (Cont…)
.4 Ground Rules
` Sets up clear expectations about acceptable behavior by
team members ((Ex. Let’s Agree)
g )

` Early commitment to clear guidelines


` Reduces misunderstanding and confusion
` Enhances productivity
ources

` All project team members share responsibility for


Human Reso

putting
tti the
th established
t bli h d rules
l iinto
t effect
ff t

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.5.4
9.3
Develop Project Team: T&T (Cont…)
.5 Co-location
` Being in the same place

` Good strategy to increase performance

` Can be short-term or for the entire project


ources

` War room!
Human Reso

` The use of virtual teams lessens the frequency that team


members are located together

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.5.4
9.3
Develop Project Team: T&T (Cont…)

.6 Recognition and Rewards


` Plans developed during HR planning

` Only desirable behavior should be rewarded


Î need for work overtime since poor planning should
not be rewarded
ources
Human Reso

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.5.4
9.3
Develop Project Team: T&T (Cont…)

.6 Recognition and Rewards (Cont…)


` Win-lose (zero sum) rewards that only a restricted team
members can get
` Can damage team cohesiveness
` Ex. team member of the month

` Rewarding win-win behavior that each one can achieve


ources

` Likely to increase support among team members


` Ex. Submitting gp
progress
g reports
p on time
Human Reso

` Should reflect on cultural differences

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.5.4
9.3
Develop Project Team: Outputs (Cont…)

.1 Team Performance Assessment


` Evaluation can contain indicators such as
` Improvements in skills that permit a
person to carry out assigned activities
more effectively
ources

` Improvements in competencies that assist


Human Reso

the team do better as a group

` Lower staff turnover rate

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3.5.4
9.3
Develop Project Team: Supplementary Info
` Stages of Team Building
` Forming

` Storming

` Norming
ources

` Performing
Human Reso

` Adjourning

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.5.4
9.3
Develop Project Team: Supplementary Info

` Motivation Theories: Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs


Self
Actualization
(self fulfillment)

Esteem (respect,
appreciation,…)
ources

Social (Love, friends, …)


Human Reso

Safety (Security, Stability,…)

Physiological (Need for air, water, food, housing,


and clothing)

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.5.4
9.3
Develop Project Team: Supplementary Info
` Motivation Theories (Cont…): Expectancy Theory
` Employees who believe their efforts will lead to effective
performance and

` Expect to be rewarded for their accomplishments


ources

` Will remain productive as rewards meet their


expectations
Human Reso

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.5.4
9.3
Develop Project Team: Supplementary Info
` Motivation Theories (Cont…): Achievement Theory
` People stay motivated as long as their need
off three
h things
hi are fulfilled
f lfill d
` Achievement
ources

` Authority (or power)


Human Reso

` Affiliation

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.5.4
9.3
Develop Project Team: Supplementary Info
` Types of power
` Expert: being the technical expert (earned on your own)

` Reward: giving rewards (for good performance)

` Penalty: penalize team members


ources

` Legitimate (Formal): based on position


Human Reso

` Referent: know some higher manager

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.5.4
9.3
Develop Project Team: Supplementary Info
` Leadership Theories: McGregor Theory
` Theory X
` Traditional management
` Managers believe that people have to be controlled and
watched all the time because
` People (workers) are incapable, irresponsible and do not
want to work
ources

` Theory Y
` Managers
a age s ccreate
eate a
an e
environment
o e t tthat
at a
aids
ds peop
people
e to ac
achieve
e e
Human Reso

goals because
` People (workers) are eager to accept responsibility and
willing to work

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.5.5
9.4
Manage Project Team

` The PM
` Observes behavior
Ob b h i
` Manages conflict
` Resolves issues
` Appraises team member performance
ources
Human Reso

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.5.5
9.4
Manage Project Team (Cont…)

Inputs
.1 Project Staff Assignments
.2 Project Management Plan
.3Team Performance
Assessment
.4 Performance Reports T&T
.5 Organizational Process .1 Observation and Conversation
Assets .2 Project Performance.
Appraisals
ources

.3 Conflict Management
.4 Issues Log
Outputs .5 Interpersonal skills
Human Reso

.1 Enterprise environmental
updates
.2 Org. Process Assets
(updates)
.3 Change Requests.
.4 PM Plan (updates)
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3.5.5
9.4
Manage Project Team
ources
Human Reso

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.5.5
9.4
Manage Project Team: T&T (Cont…)
.2 Project Performance Appraisals
` Objectives
` Redefining of the roles and responsibilities
` Ensuring team members obtain feedback
` Detection of unidentified or unsettled issues
` Advancement of individual training plans
ources
Human Reso

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.5.5
9.4
Manage Project Team: T&T (Cont…)

.2 Project Performance Appraisals (Cont…)


` The need of formal and informal depends on
` How long the project is
` How complex it is
` Organizational policy
` Labor and employment contract
ources

` The quantity and quality of regular communications


Human Reso

` The “360 degree” means that feedback is presented from


various sources including superiors, peers, and
subordinates

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.5.5
9.4
Manage Project Team: T&T (Cont…)
.3 Conflict Management
` Successful conflict management Æ better productivity
and constructive working relationships

` What can cause conflict?


` Usually, conflict starts because of work (professional)
ources

` Rare resources
` Scheduling priorities
` Personal work style
Human Reso

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.5.5
9.4
Manage Project Team: T&T (Cont…)
.3 Conflict Management (Cont…)
` Factors reducing conflict
` Ground rules
` Group norms
` Solid PM practices
ources

` Rule of thumb
` Difference of views are healthy
Human Reso

` C llead
Can d tto greater
t creativity
ti it and
d iimproved
dddecision
i i making
ki

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.5.5
9.4
Manage Project Team: T&T (Cont…)
.3 Conflict Management (Cont…)
` Who is responsible to resolve a conflict
` First: involved team members
` Then: PM should help make possible a satisfactory solution;
conflict should be addressed early and in secretive way
using a direct, joint approach
` If disruptive conflict persists, progressively more formal
ources

procedures will need to be used, including the possible use


of disciplinary actions
Human Reso

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.5.5
9.4
Manage Project Team: T&T (Cont…)

.3 Conflict Management (Cont…) :


Conflict resolution techniques
` Confronting (Problem Solving): win-win
` Compromising: Middle-way (lose-lose)
` Forcing: Do it my way
` Smoothing: Emphasize agreement
ources

` Withdrawal (Avoidance): (non-proactive; not


recommended)
Human Reso

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.5.5
9.4
Manage Project Team: T&T (Cont…)
.4 Issues Log
` Documenting issues, responsible person, and defines
an end date to resolve it

` Helps the project team to keep an eye on issues until


closure
ources
Human Reso

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Contents at a Glance
` Key Concepts
` The Standard for PM of a Project
` The PM Process Groups
` Integration Management
` Scope Management
` Time Management
` Cost Management
` Quality Management
` HR Management
` Communications Management
` Risk Management
g
` Procurement Management
` Code of Ethics
` The Exam
` Tips & Tricks and Simulation Exam

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10. Project Communications Management

` Processes required to ensure timely and appropriate


generation collection
generation, collection, distribution
distribution, storage
storage, retrieval
retrieval,
and ultimate disposition of project information.

` Five processes:
` Identify Stakeholders
` Plan Communications
` Distribute Information
` Manage Stakeholder Expectations
` Report Performance.

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.3.2
10.1
Identify Stakeholders
` Identifying all people or organizations impacted by
the project.

` Documenting relevant information regarding their


interests, involvement, and impact on the project
success
Communicattions

` Stakeholders are persons and organizations that


are actively involved in the project, or whose
interests may be positively or negatively affected by
the project.

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.3.2
10.1
Identify Stakeholders

Inputs
.1 Project Charter.
.2
2 Procurement documents
documents.
.3 Enterprise environmental factors.
.4 Organizational Process Assets
T&T
.1 Stakeholder Analysis
.2 Expert Judgment
Communicattions

Outputs
.1 Stakeholder register.
.2 Stakeholder management strategy.

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.3.2
10.1
Identify Stakeholders
Communicattions

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3.3.2
10.1
Identify Stakeholders: T&T
.1 Stakeholder Analysis:
Three steps:
` Identify all potential stakeholders and relevant
information, such as roles, departments, interests,
knowledge levels, expectations, and influence levels.
` Identify the potential impact or support each stakeholder
could generate, and classify them so as to define an
Communicattions

approach strategy., using :Power / Interest, Power /


Influence, Influence / Impact grids.
` Assess how key stakeholders are likely to react or
respond in various situations, in order to plan how to
influence them to enhance their support and mitigate
potential negative impact
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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.3.2
10.1
Identify Stakeholders: T&T
.1 Stakeholder Analysis: Power / Interest Grid
Communicattions

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3.3.2
10.1
Identify Stakeholders: Outputs
.2 Stakeholder Management Strategy:
` Defines an approach to manage the stakeholders.
` Increase the support from stakeholders.
` Minimize negative impact of stakeholders.
` Includes:
` Key stakeholders who can impact the project.
Communicattions

` Level of participation in the project desired for each


stakeholder.
stakeholder
` Stakeholder group and their management.

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.3.2
10.1
Identify Stakeholders: Outputs
.2 Stakeholder Management Strategy:
Communicattions

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.4.14
10.2
Plan Communications
` How the information and communications
requirements of the stakeholders will be met

` A vital factor for project success

` Progressively elaborated process


Communicattions

` PM spends 90% of his time communicating.


` PM = Documentation + Justification +
Communication + Integration + Change
Management

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.4.14
10.2
Plan Communications

Inputs
.1 Stakeholder register.
.2
2 Stakeholder management strategy.
strategy
.3 Enterprise Environmental Factors
.4 Organizational Process Assets
T&T
.1 Communication
Requirements Analysis
.2 Communication
Communicattions

Technology
.3 Communication models
.4
4 Communication methods

Outputs
.1 Communications Management Plan
.2 Project document updates

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3.4.14
10.2
Plan Communications
Communicattions

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.4.14
10.2
Plan Communications: T&T

.1 Communications Requirements Analysis


` The total communications requirements of the project
stakeholders
t k h ld
` Who needs
` What information
` When they will need it
` How it will be given to them
Communicattions

` And by whom

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.4.14
10.2
Plan Communications: T&T
.1 Communications Requirements Analysis (Cont…)
` Communication Channels = N(N-1)/2
` N = No
No. of stakeholders

3
A D
Communicattions

2 5

1 6

4
B C

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.4.14
10.2
Plan Communications
.2 Communications Technology
` Methods used to convey information among project
stakeholders

` Affecting Aspects
` Urgency
` The available technology
Communicattions

` Staff experience
` Time span of the project (technology is likely to change before
Time-span
the project ends?)

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.4.14
10.2
Plan Communications: Outputs
.1 Communications Management Plan
` Information to be communicated (format, content, level of
detail )
detail,…)
` Receivers
` Methods or technologies
` Frequency
` Escalation
Communicattions

` Method of updating and refining the plan

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.5.6
10.3
Distribute Information
` Providing information to stakeholders in a timely
manner

` Includes
` Implementing the communications management plan
Communicattions

` Responding to unplanned requests for information

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3.5.6
10.3
Distribute Information

Inputs
.1 Project
oject Management
a age e t
Plan
.2 Performance reports.
.3 Organizational Process T&T
Assets .1 Communication methods
.2 Information Distribution tools
Communicattions

Outputs
.1
1 Organizational Process
Assets (update)

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.5.6
10.3
Distribute Information
Communicattions

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.5.6
10.3
Distribute Information: T&T
.2 Information Distribution Tools
` Hard-copy document distribution, manual filing
system,
t press releases.
l
` Electronic communication and conferencing,
such as email, fax, video and web
conferencing.
Communicattions

` Electronic tools for project management, such


as web interfaces to scheduling ad project
management software.

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.5.7
10.4
Manage Stakeholders

` Communicating and working with stakeholders to


meet their needs and addressing issues as they
occur.

` Addressing concerns that have not become issues


yet,
Communicattions

` Resolve issues with stakeholders

` The PM is usually responsible for stakeholder


management
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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.5.7
10.4
Manage Stakeholders (Cont…)

` Actively managing stakeholders


` Keeps the project on track

` Enhances the ability of persons to operate


cooperatively
Communicattions

` Limits instabilities during the project

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.5.7
10.4
Manage Stakeholders (Cont…)

Inputs
.1 Stakeholder register
.2
2 Stakeholder management plan
plan.
.3 Project Management Plan
.4 Issue log.
.5 Change log. T&T
.6 Organizational Process Assets .1 Communications
Methods
Communicattions

.2 Interpersonal skills.
Outputs .3 Management skills.
.1
1 Organizational Process Assets
(updates)
.2 Change Requests
.3 PM Plan (updates)
.4 Project Document updates

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3.5.7
10.4
Manage Stakeholders: T&T (Cont…)
Communicattions

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.5.7
10.4
Manage Stakeholders: T&T (Cont…)

.1 Communications Methods
` As acknowledged in the communications
management plan for every stakeholder

` Face to face meetings are the most effective


approach to communicate and resolve issues with
stakeholders
Communicattions

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3.6.8
10.5
Report Performance

` Involves
` The gathering of all baseline data.
` Comparing baselines to actual data.
` Communicating performance information to stakeholders
in respect with project’s progress, performance as well as
forecasting for the project future.
` Comprises how resources are being used to
Communicattions

realize p
project
j objectives
j
` Reports may be according
` To the communications management plan
` On an exception basis

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.6.8
10.5
Report Performance
Inputs
.1 Project Management Plan
.2 Work Performance Information
.3
3 Work Performance Measurements
.4 Budget Forecasts
.5 Organizational Process Assets T&T
.1 Variance Analysis
.2 Forecasting methods
.3 Communication methods
Outputs .4 Reporting systems
Communicattions

.1 Performance Reports
.2 Organizational Process Assets
(updates)
.3 Change Requests

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.6.8
10.5
Report Performance
Communicattions

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.6.8
10.5
Report Performance

.1 Performance Reports: Major elements of a status


report
Date: dd/mm/yyyy
Report Title
Baseline Actual Data
Variance
Communicattions

Data (Work Performance Information)

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.6.8
10.5
Report Performance

.1 Performance Reports: Major elements of an action


plan
Date: dd/mm/yyyy
Action Plan
# Action Item Owner (Responsible) Delivery Date
Communicattions

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Contents at a Glance
` Key Concepts
` The Standard for PM of a Project
` The PM Process Groups
` Integration Management
` Scope Management
` Time Management
` Cost Management
` Quality Management
` HR Management
` Communications Management
` Risk Management
g
` Procurement Management
` Code of Ethics
` The Exam
` Tips & Tricks and Simulation Exam

369

11. Project Risk Management


` Processes to conduct risk management planning,
identification, analysis, response planning, and
monitoring.
monitoring
` The objective is to increase the probability and
impact of positive event, and decrease the
probability and impact of negative events.
` Six processes:
` Plan Risk Management.
g
` Identify Risks
` Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis.
` Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
` Plan Risk Responses.
` Monitor and Control Risks.
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3.4.15
11.1
Plan Risk Management
` How to handle project’s risks

` The project risk management planning should be


completed early
` because it is the foundation of completing the other risk
management processes
Risk

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.4.15
11.1
Plan Risk Management

Inputs
.1
1 Project Scope Statement
.2 Cost Management Plan
.3 Schedule Management Plan
.4 Communication Management
T&T
Plan.
.1 Planning Meetings and
.5 Enterprise Environmental
Analysis
Factors
.6 Organizational Process Assets

Outputs
.1 Risk Management Plan
Risk

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3.4.15
11.1
Risk

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.4.15
1.1
Plan Risk Management: T&T (Cont…)
.1 Planning Meetings and Analysis

` D
Develop
l risk
i k costt and
d schedule
h d l elements
l t

` Assign risk responsibilities

` Tailoring organizational templates


Risk

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3.4.15
11.1
Plan Risk Management: Outputs (Cont…)

.1 Risk Management Plan

` Methodology
` Roles & Responsibilities
` Budgeting
` Timing
` Risk Categories
` Definitions of Risk Probability and Impact
` Probability and Impact Matrix
` Revised Stakeholders’ Tolerances
` Describe formats of all risk-related reports
Risk

` Tracking

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.4.15
11.1
Plan Risk Management: Outputs (Cont…)

Project

Project
Technical External Organizational
Management

Subcontractors Project
Requirements Estimating
& Suppliers Dependencies

Technology Regulatory Resources Planning

Complexity &
Market Funding Controlling
Interfaces

Performance &
Customer Prioritization Communication
Reliability

Quality Weather
Risk

RBS - Risk Categories


377

Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.4.16
11.2
Identify Risks

` Describes risks that may influence the project and


documents their characteristics

` Iterative process, new risks may happen as project


progress

` Identifying a risk may suggest its responses,


which
hi h should
h ld b be documented
d t d for
f future
f t
investigation
Risk

378

@ 2009 Canadians 2 World Inc 39


Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.4.16
11.2
Identify Risks (Cont…)

Inputs
.1 Risk Management Plan
.2 Activity cost estimates
.3 Activity Duration estimates.
.4 Scope baseline. T&T
.5 Stakeholder register. .1 Documentation Reviews
.6 Cost management plan. .2 Information Gathering
.7 Schedule management plan. Techniques
.8 Quality management plan. .3 Checklist Analysis
.9 Enterprise Environmental .4 Assumptions Analysis
Factors .5 Diagramming Techniques
.6 SWOT analysis.
y
.10
10 Organizational Process Assets
.7 Expert Judgment

Outputs
Risk

.1 Risk Register

379

Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.4.16
11.2
Risk

380

@ 2009 Canadians 2 World Inc 40


Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.4.16
11.2
Identify Risks: T&T (Cont…)
.1 Documentation Reviews
` A structured review of all project documents to confirm
quality and uniformity
Risk

381

Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.4.16
11.2
Identify Risks: T&T (Cont…)
.3 Checklist Analysis
` Should not be mentally restricted to the checklist items

` Checklists should be reviewed for the duration of the


project closure process
Risk

382

@ 2009 Canadians 2 World Inc 41


Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.4.16
11.2
Identify Risks: T&T (Cont…)
.4 Assumptions Analysis
` Exploring assumptions validity

` Checking assumptions accuracy, consistency and


completeness
Risk

383

Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.4.16
11.2
Identify Risks: T&T (Cont…)
.5 Diagramming Techniques
` Cause-and-effect diagram (Ishikawa or Fish bone):
practical for identifying risk causes

Time Machine Method Material

Major
Defect

Energy Measurement Personnel Environment

Potential Causes Effect


Risk

Fig 8-6, PMBOK® 192

384

@ 2009 Canadians 2 World Inc 42


Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.4.16
11.2
Identify Risks: Outputs (Cont…)
.1 Risk Register
` Initial entries of the risk register are the main outputs of
the risk identification pprocess;; these are
` Inventory of identified risks
` List of possible responses
` Origin of risk
` Updated risk types

` All other risk planning processes will bring up to date


and add to the risk register
Risk

385

Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.4.17
11.3
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
` Prioritize the identified risks for further action
` Quantitative risk analysis
` Risk response planning
` Evaluation of risk priority using
` Probability of occurrence
` Impact on project objectives if it takes place
` Time frame: when it is anticipated to happen
` Risk tolerance of p
project
j constraints
Risk

386

@ 2009 Canadians 2 World Inc 43


Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.4.17
11.3
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis (Cont…)
` Fast and cost-effective

` Should be revisited throughout the project life cycle

` Facilitates advancing performance of projects by


focusing on high priority risks
Risk

387

Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.4.17
11.3
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis (Cont…)

Inputs
.1 Risk Register
g
.2 Risk Management Plan
.3 Project Scope Statement
.4 Organizational Process Assets T&T
.1 Risk Probability and Impact
Assessment
.2 Probability and Impact Matrix
.3 Risk Data Quality Assessment
.4 Risk Categorization
.5 Risk Urgency Assessment
.6 Expert Judgment

Outputs
.1 Risk Register (Updates)
Risk

388

@ 2009 Canadians 2 World Inc 44


Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.4.17
11.3
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis (Cont…)
Risk

389

Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.4.17
11.3
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis (Cont…)

.1 Risk Probability and Impact Assessment


` Probability: the likelihood that a risk will occur

` Impact: likely effect on project objectives if the risk happens


(positive or negative)

` Expert judgment is needed

` Move risks with low score to watchlist for future monitoring


Risk

390

@ 2009 Canadians 2 World Inc 45


Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.4.17
11.3
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis (Cont…)
.2 Probability and Impact Matrix

P b bilit and
Probability d IImpactt Matrix
M ti
Probability Threats Opportunities

0.80 0.08 0.16 0.32 0.64 0.64 0.32 0.16 0.08

0.40 0.04 0.08 0.16 0.32 0.32 0.16 0.08 0.04

0.20 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.16 0.16 0.08 0.04 0.02

0.10 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.01

Impact Î 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.80 0.80 0.40 0.20 0.10


Risk

391

Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.4.17
11.3
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis (Cont…)
.1 Risk Register (Updates)
` Relative ranking or priority list of risks
` Risks grouped by categories
` List of risks requiring response in the near-term
` List of risks for additional analysis and response
` Watchlists of low priority risks
` Trends in qualitative risk analysis results
Risk

392

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Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.4.18
11.4
Perform Quantative Risk Analysis (Cont…)
` Performed on high score risks
` Short listed by Qualitative Risk Analysis

` Examines the outcome of those risks

` Assigns a numerical rating to each


Risk

393

Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.4.18
11.4
Perform Quantative Risk Analysis (Cont…)
` Presents a Quantitative approach to come up with
decisions when uncertainty exists

` Consumes time and budget

` Should be repeated after risk response planning as


part of risk M&C
Risk

394

@ 2009 Canadians 2 World Inc 47


Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.4.18
11.4
Perform Quantative Risk Analysis (Cont…)

Inputs
.1 Risk Register
.2
2 Risk Management Plan
.3 Cost Management Plan
.4 Schedule Mgt Plan
T&T
.5 Organizational Process Assets
.1 Data Gathering and
Representation Technique
.2 Quantitative Risk Analysis
and Modeling Techniques
.3 Expert Judgment

Outputs
.1 Risk Register (Updates)
Risk

395

Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.4.18
11.4
Perform Quantative Risk Analysis (Cont…)
Risk

396

@ 2009 Canadians 2 World Inc 48


Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.4.18
11.4
Perform Quantative Risk Analysis (Cont…)

.2 Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling


Techniques
` Sensitivity Analysis
` Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
` Decision Tree Analysis: generally structured using EMV
` Modeling and Simulation (Ex. Monte Carlo Technique)
Risk

397

Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.4.18
11.4
Perform Quantative Risk Analysis (Cont…)

Decision Definition Decision Node Chance Node Net Path Value


Input: Cost of Each Option Input: Scenario Probability
Computed: (Payoffs
Decision to be made p Decision Made
Output: Output:
p Expected
p Monetary y minus Costs along Path)
(TRUE, FALSE) Value (EMV)

Strong 65%
Demand $80M
$200M
Build New
Plant -$120M
Weak 35%
-$30M
Demand $90M
Build or
Upgrade? 65%
Strong
Demand $70M
Upgrade $120M
Existing
-$50M
Risk

Plant
Weak 35%
$10M
Demand $60M
398

@ 2009 Canadians 2 World Inc 49


Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing
3.4.18
11.4
Perform Quantative Risk Analysis (Cont…)

Decision Definition Decision Node Chance Node Net Path Value

Input: Cost of Each Option Input: Scenario Probability


Computed: (Payoffs
Decision to be made Output:
p Decision Made Output:
p Expected
p Monetary y minus Costs along Path)
(TRUE, FALSE) Value (EMV)

Strong $130
130MM 65%
Demand $80M
$200M
Build New EMV of the Chance
Plant Node $41
41..5M
-$120M
Weak 31..5M 35%
$31
-$30M
Demand $90M
Build or
Upgrade? Strong $78
78M
M 65%
Demand $70M
$120M
Upgrade
Existing EMV of the Chance
-$50M Node $49
49M
M
Risk

Plant
Weak 35%
$21
21M
M $10M
Demand $60M
399

Initiating Planning Executing M&C Closing


3.4.18
11.4
Perform Quantative Risk Analysis (Cont…)

Decision Definition Decision Node Chance Node Net Path Value


Input: Cost of Each Option Input: Scenario Probability
Computed: (Payoffs
Decision to be made p Decision Made
Output: Output:
p Expected
p Monetary y minus Costs along Path)
(TRUE, FALSE) Value (EMV)

Strong $130M 65%


Demand $80M
$200M
Build New False EMV of the Chance
Plant Node $41
41..5M
-$120M
Weak $31.5M 35% -$30M
Demand $90M
Build or EMV of the Decision
Upgrade? $49M Strong $78M 65%
Demand $70M
$120M
Upgrade True EMV of the Chance
Existing Node $49
49M
M
Risk

Plant -$50M
Weak $21M 35% $10M
Demand $60M
400

@ 2009 Canadians 2 World Inc 50

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