DECISION:

A decision is a choice made between 2 or more available alternatives. Decision Making is the
process of choosing the best alternative for reaching objectives. Managers make decisions
affecting the organization daily and communicate those decisions to other organizational
members.

Some decisions affect a large number of organization members, cost a great deal of money to
Carry out, or have a long term effect on the organization. Such significant decisions can have a
major impact, not only on the management systems itself, but on the career of the manager
who makes them.

Other decisions are fairly insignificant, affecting only a small member of organization
members, costing little to carry out, and producing only a short term effect on the
organization.

TYPES OF DECISIONS:

PROGRAMMED DECISIONS:

Programmed decisions are routine and repetitive, and the organization typically develops
specific ways to handle them. A programmed decision might involve determining how
products will be arranged on the shelves of a supermarket. For this kind of routine, repetitive
problem, standard arrangement decisions are typically made according to established
management guidelines.

NON PROGRAMMED DECISIONS:

Non programmed decisions are typically one shot decisions that are usually less structured
than programmed decision.

5 ELEMENTS OF THE DECISION SITUATION:

The Decision Makers

Goals to be served

Relevant Alternatives

Ordering of Alternatives

Choice of Alternatives

DECISION MAKING PROCESS:

Decision making steps this model depicts are as follows:

Identify an existing problem

List possible alternatives for solving the problem

Select the most beneficial of these alternatives.

Implement the selected alternative.

Gather feedback to find out if the implemented alternative is solving the identified problem.

Successful Decision Making

Decision-making is a key aspect of leadership in any organization, whether public or

private. Frequently, however, the thinking behind these leaders' decisions is intuitive

and implicit rather than logical and explicit, creating the illusion that "decisions just

happen". In today's knowledge economy, research has shown that this approach to

decision making neither engenders trust in the leadership nor commitment to the

decision. What is offered here is a straightforward process for decision-making that can

be used by individuals, either as an individual, or as a member of a group. Use of this

process provides a framework for making the thinking behind a decision both logical

and explicit – and facilitates learning from experience.

A good decision has several parameters.

♦ It is based on data and incorporates multiple, knowledgeable points of view

♦ It is timed to market (customer/consumer) needs and the company's

organizational and financial capability

♦ It is aligned to both long and short-term organizational goals

♦ It requires effort that is proportional to its impact

♦ It takes a multidimensional viewpoint that includes resourcing/people,

market/financial and technology aspects.

There are both internal and external pressures that can push leaders away from

successful decision-making. Internally, leaders themselves are often successful because

of their bias for action. While there are times when a bias for action is very useful, it

also can result in "jumping to conclusions" rather than follow a systematic process for

decision-making. At the same time, leaders in both the public and private sectors

experience external pressures. They are expected to solve problems as soon as they

surface. Leaders who take time to study the problem and search for the best solution,

rather than take the first one that comes to mind, are often seen as indecisive.

Teams of managers make many business decisions. Due to many factors (i.e.,

"groupthink," influence of strong personalities, etc) teams are often as vulnerable as

individual managers to jumping to conclusions. This can undermine the commitment of

the team to follow through on the decision and decrease the probability of success as

well as the credibility of the team.

Successful Decision Making

© 2000 Andrea Shapiro & Carol Lorenz

Every decision is a learning opportunity. In fact, we could say that there are two distinct

value propositions in every decision. One is the value from the outcome of the decision

itself – the product produced or the capacity built. The other is the learning from both
the decision process and the outcome of the decision. Ignoring learning is tantamount to

throwing away half of the value from the decision. However, under time pressure,

leaders do just that. They often neglect to take the time to reflect and evaluate and learn

from each decision. Learning becomes very haphazard, and leaders repeat the same

expensive mistakes or miss opportunities to reapply successes.

Following a process is one way to help leaders avoid jumping in and implementing the

first solution that comes to mind. It creates an environment of systematic decisionmaking

and creates opportunity for learning.

Tool: A Decision Making Process

What It Is

A simple process to follow to improve decision making, which helps improve individual

decisions and creates a framework to learn about how decisions are made in your

organization.

What It Can Do

♦ Help leaders make better more informed systematic decisions.

♦ Impose a discipline on decision-making that helps avoid the trap of lunging to the

first solution that comes to mind.

♦ Creates a vocabulary that allows leaders to share their thought process.

♦ Creates opportunities for learning about how decisions are made.

Successful Decision Making

© 2000 Andrea Shapiro & Carol Lorenz

How It Works

Breaking each decision into a six-step process increases the probability of success and

of learning from each decision and applying those learnings in future decisions.
Following the process helps prevent jumping to easily available, but not necessarily

optimum inferences. It helps leaders assess the situation and draw well-reasoned

conclusions. It also creates a framework to explain the reasoning behind decisions that

helps to build commitment to the decision. The six-step process is:

♦ Frame the Decision

♦ Gather Information

♦ Analyze the Information

♦ Draw Conclusions

♦ Take Action

♦ Learn from Experience

Successful Decision Making

© 2000 Andrea Shapiro & Carol Lorenz

Frame the Decision

Framing is the window through which we see the decision, and it puts the decision in

context. Framing is setting the scope and deciding which aspects of the problem are

most important and should be emphasized. Without a frame we would be attempting to

"boil the ocean" with every decision. Framing is key – it cannot be delegated. It is the

leader's responsibility to set the context for every decision, and thereby establish the

scope and priorities.

Framing is so natural that people tend to do it without thinking. Generally, people are

unaware of their decision frames, which typically have roots in their experience and

expertise. For example, an executive with a background in engineering tends to frame

decisions as technical problems, while an executive from marketing tends to frame the
same decisions as market issues. Frames for most business and public sector decisions

need to include the resourcing/people, market/financial, and technology factors to be

effective.

Leaders must be aware of their frames to test them against the demands of the situation

and to articulate why it is the right frame for this decision. Their frames must be broad

enough to cover the important business issues, and precise enough to give clear

direction.

Avoid – Falling back on old familiar frames without considering if they are appropriate

for this situation.

Gather Information

Once the leader has set the frame, gathering information can be delegated. A welldefined

and understood frame drives what information needs to be applied in each

situation. However, an unrecognized frame can hide important factors and sources of

information.

When gathering information, it is important to know what you don't know. Thus, the

first step in gathering information is an honest assessment of what you know and what

you don't.

Hidden assumptions can dangerously hide important information. So it is important to

determine what you know that "ain't so" - question all assumptions about what is

known. Ask yourself disconfirming questions to uncover hidden assumptions.

Successful Decision Making

© 2000 Andrea Shapiro & Carol Lorenz

Future trends are important in gathering information. Investigate PEST projections

(political, economic, social, technological factors) for possible areas of change in the
future.

Avoid – Overconfidence in your assumptions and what “is known” can lead to a failure

to collect key information.

Analyze the Information

Like gathering the information analyzing it, or reducing it to usable chunks, can also be

delegated. Whoever analyzes the information, it is important to be systematic. Use a

weighting system to make sure no information is ignored or over emphasized. Weigh

possible outcomes – considering both the likelihood that they will occur and the

consequences if they do.

Analyze data considering its resourcing/people, market/financial & technology impacts.

For example, basing a product decision on technology considerations can be disastrous

if the market is not ready for it. Or overextending to meet perceived market demands

without sufficient people to successfully complete a product or project is ignoring an

important aspect of the decision that could have serious consequences.

Use SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) to organize

analysis. Strengths and Weaknesses are internal to your organization – know what your

organization can accomplish and what it cannot. Opportunities and Threats are

environmental – understand the market opportunities and the threats from competition.

Avoid – Failing to be systematic in combining information, and over- or under-weighing

a piece of information because it is salient or was relevant in the past.

Draw Conclusions

Like setting the frame drawing conclusions cannot be delegated. It is the leaders role to

see the bigger picture and to use the analyzed data to draw the effective conclusion for

the organization. The analyst, who gathers the information and analyzes it, is often an

expert in one field. He or she can go into great depth and see many important nuances
that the leader could miss.

It is the leader's role to understand the larger multidimensional industry or public

context. For example, only the leader is in a position to decide if a product that is

Successful Decision Making

© 2000 Andrea Shapiro & Carol Lorenz

technically feasible with excellent market possibilities, should be attempted when the

key knowledge workers are involved in other important work that cannot be set aside.

Avoid – Getting in to the details too much and not taking a "step back," and thus failing

to put the decision in the larger organizational context.

Take Action

In many decisions, it may not the role of the decision-maker to take action. Typically

the action is delegated to professionals in technology or manufacturing or finance or

other areas. Commitment on the part of those professionals is essential to success.

Without it the best decision will fail.

In the knowledge economy, creativity and expertise are resources that are locked in

employee’s minds. Sharing them can only happen voluntarily. Fair Process, as defined

by Kim & Mauborgne, builds the trust and commitment necessary to succeed in the

knowledge economy. They define three steps to Fair Process: Engagement,

Explanation, and Expectation.

♦ Engagement - Involve affected individuals in the decisions. Everyone should be

heard and understood.

♦ Explanation - Explain the thinking behind the decision. Helps people support a

decision when their ideas have been rejected.

♦ Expectation - State clearly the new rules of the game and what is expected from
those affected.

Fair Process is a key leverage point for employee commitment to a decision.

Avoid – Not involving critical players affected by the decision in the decision process,

and expecting them to carry out a decision that they do not fully understand.

Learn from Experience

All learning depends on feedback. Decisions can have effects within the company and

in the marketplace. Both are sources of vital information. Using this information can

improve future decisions. However, there are both individual and organizational

barriers to getting and then using feedback.

Successful Decision Making

© 2000 Andrea Shapiro & Carol Lorenz

There is an old saying, “Victory has a thousand fathers; defeat is an orphan.” This

comes from two behaviors that distort our ability as individuals to learn from

experience. When the outcome turns out well, research has shown people have an

illusion of the amount of control they had – even over random events. When the

outcome turns out poorly – people are apt to rationalize away errors that could have

been controlled. This tendency to attribute success to skill and failures to bad luck and

influences outside our control clouds our ability to learn from experience.

Every decision made and every action taken is an opportunity to learn. Yet if the

organization does not keep track of decisions it misses this opportunity. Include in every

important decision a plan on gathering information and learning from experience.

To take advantage of the learning opportunity of decisions, the US Army uses a process

known as After Action Reviews (AAR's) to help decision makers learn from experience.

During training exercises and after real military engagements, specialists conduct “rankblind”
feedback sessions. The sessions are decidedly “low-tech” focused around four

basic questions. 1) What went well? 2) What went poorly? 3) What should be

sustained? 4) What should be improved? Officers get immediate feedback. Information

from many AAR’s is collated together and examined for trends that are then

incorporated into future Army training.

Avoid – Losing vital information by not keeping track of decisions and their outcomes

and checking for trends and possible biases.

Some Things to Consider

Managers and leaders are often rewarded for action. Taking the time to be systematic

may take some discipline in the beginning. In the long run it pays off by improved

decision making. Consistently using a checklist to track and audit decisions enforces a

discipline and reinforces the learning by helping clarify trends over time.

Decision Making Checklist Yes No

Has the leader created a clear description of the decision to be

made?

Frame the

Decision Has the leader articulated a frame that is understood by the team

and can be used to drive the following steps?

Is it clear who is responsible for gathering information?

Have assumptions been closely examined?

Gather

Information

Were diverse opinions sought out and discussed

Successful Decision Making

© 2000 Andrea Shapiro & Carol Lorenz

Is it clear who is responsible for analysis?

Has the information been analyzed considering its technology,

market/financial, and resource/people impacts?

Analyze

Information Has a weighting system been established to be sure no data is

overlooked or given too much importance?

Have the conclusions been drawn by the leader(s) and not by a

delegate?

Draw

Conclusions Does the conclusion take the "bigger picture" and long term goals

into account?

Were the three steps of Fair Process (engagement, explanation,

and expectation) implemented to gain commitment?

Take

Action

Are those affected by the decision committed to it?

Learn from

Experience Is there a tool or process in place for gaining and using feedback?
Example: A systematic approach for making a decision

Suppose you are the CEO of a moderate sized manufacturing company. Your company

has factories in two small towns, but both of the factories are working at absolute

capacity and are beginning to miss promised delivery dates on some orders. You know

that key customers are beginning to look for other sources, and you begin the process of

deciding what to do.

First you frame the problem. You explain to your analysts that the most important

aspect of this problem is to create a solution in the shortest time that will satisfy

customer demand at the lowest cost. You further refine the frame to explain that costs

and time are important, but satisfying customer demand is the number one criterion.

The analysts begin gathering data. They don't want to assume that demand will remain

steady so they commission the market research group to provide forecasts of future

customer demand. They research the cost of the various options

Your analysts discover that there are three possible options: 1) Expand the existing

facilities, which can be done at moderate costs, but does not allow for introducing new

tools and machines that can increase productivity. 2) Build a new facility at a third

location. This is an expensive option that makes more time, but it allows for installing

the latest machines and tools. 3) Do nothing. This option creates no outlay of money,

Successful Decision Making

© 2000 Andrea Shapiro & Carol Lorenz

but it leaves the company vulnerable to missing more delivery dates. Since the world is

an uncertain place, your market forecasters provide probabilities for various demand

levels in the future. They indicate the there is a low likelihood that demand will lessen,
moderate likelihood that it will grow, and a high probability that it will remain steady.

Expanding capacity will allow you to meet promise dates if demand stays steady, and

building a new facility will allow you to meet promise dates even if demand grows

significantly.

With all the information in place, the analysts begin evaluating it, driven by the frame

that you articulated. They create a decision matrix to help systematically analyze the

options. They put the three options and their related costs in the left-hand column, and

the possible demand profiles and their associated probability across the top. In the body

of the matrix, the analysts give a score for the outcome of each of the options. They use

a simple scaling system –2 to +2 (where –2 is the worst and +2 is the best). They can

optionally annotate the body of the matrix with explanations of each score – if you think

it adds value.

Demand Down

(low probability)

Demand Steady

(high probability)

Demand Up

(medium probability)

Expand

(Moderate Cost) -1 +2 +1

Build New

(High Cost) -2 -1 +2

Do Nothing

(No Cost) 0 -1 -2

Once the analysts have evaluated each option, it becomes your responsibility to chose a
decision rule and draw your conclusions. Some popular decision rules are:

1. Minimize Possible Loss – Choose "Expand" because the other two

options each contain a –2.

2. Maximize Possible Gain – Eliminate "Do Nothing" because it does not

contain a +2. Choose "Expand" because it has more positive scores than

"Build New".

3. Minimize Variance – Choose "Do Nothing" because it has the smallest

difference between outcomes (0 to –2)

4. Expected Utility (EU) – Estimate the numerical probability for each of

the three possible demand profiles. Then calculate the EU of each option

and chose the maximum, which is the sum of the probability of each

Successful Decision Making

© 2000 Andrea Shapiro & Carol Lorenz

10

outcome times its respective cost or benefit. In this example, suppose the

numerical probabilities for the demand profile is as follows: down=0.1,

steady=0.65, and up=.35. Then the EU of "Expand" = -1*0.1 + 2*0.65 +

1*0.35 = 1.65, which can be compared with the EU of the other options.

5. Choose a mixed rule – For example, choose "Expand" because it has the

highest score under the most likely demand profile.

You choose "Expand" because it is important for the company's long-term goals to be in

a position to satisfy demand. It has the highest score under the most likely future

demand profile, and it only does poorly under an unlikely demand profile.

You want to make sure that the company learns from this and all decisions – so you

make sure that there are periodic reviews during the expansion process and after the new
facilities are in place to assess the effect on the company's ability to meet customer

needs.

Try It Out

First, apply the checklist. Did the CEO in this example meet all of the criteria in the

checklist? What could have been done better?

Reframe the decision to be made. Assume the company is cash rich at the moment, and

the economy is growing steadily. Frame the decision as one of meeting present and

future customer demand with minimal regard for cost. How would this frame alter the

information to be gathered and then analyzed? How would it alter the decision? Apply

the checklist again. How would you satisfy each of the parameters under this scenario?

Reframe the decision again. This time, it is most important to satisfy only the existing

customer base (no expansion) and increase the profit margin, therefore cutting cost is

the number one criterion. The intent is to make the company highly profitable, then sell

it. How would this frame alter the information to be gathered? What would your

decision be using this frame? Return to the checklist. How would you satisfy each of

the parameters under this scenario? What frequently happens in this kind of situation?

Successful Decision Making

© 2000 Andrea Shapiro & Carol Lorenz

11

Final Comments

It should be noted that the process introduced here is not intended to cover group

decision-making techniques or theory, nor does it take into account the affect of group

dynamics on decision-making.

Rather it is intended to provide a process that could be used by a group in conjunction

with other known group decision-making techniques. The use of such a process over
time will help insure some level of discipline in decision-making in any organization.

Learning about how you and your organization make decisions, what is being done well,

and what could use some improvement leads to better decisions, increased trust in the

leadership, and a higher level of commitment to the decisions that are made.

Successful Decision Making

© 2000 Andrea Shapiro & Carol Lorenz

12

Dr. Andrea Shapiro (andrea@4-perspective.com) has worked for several Fortune 100

companies in many diverse industries, including telecommunications, medical test equipment,

and aerospace. Her experience spans mathematical modeling, software design, business

modeling, and organizational effectiveness. Shapiro's most recent work is in applying

qualitative and quantitative methods to organizational effectiveness assessments and to

designing interactive simulations that foster dialog and team learning. She holds master's

degrees in mathematics and psychology and a doctorate in Behavioral Decision Making from

the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. She is currently an independent consultant.

Dr. Carol E. Lorenz (lorenzc@mindspring.com) worked for Nortel Networks from 1984

through 1999. In her fifteen years with the company, Carol held a variety of positions in human

resources, manufacturing, materials management, customer service, quality, technical

training,

and most recently was the Director of Organizational Change for Global Operations. She

received her Ph.D. from North Carolina State University in Human Resource Development,

specializing in Community Psychology. She has presented at numerous conferences and

authored or co-authored several articles on her work in the organizational change area and
her

work in applying systems thinking in organizational development/learning. Carol is currently

owner and Principal of Carol Lorenz and Associates.

References

Dean, JW Jr. & Sharfman, MP. (1996), "Does Decision Process Matter? A Study of Strategic

Decision-Making Effectiveness", Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 39, No. 2.

French, S. (1986), Decision Theory: An Introduction to the Mathematics of Rationality. Ellis

Horwood Limited/Wiley, New York.

Kim, WC. & Mauborgne, R. (1997), "Fair Process: Managing in the Knowledge Economy",

Harvard Business Review, July-August.

Nutt, PC. (1999), "Surprising but true: Half the decisions in organizations fail", Academy of

Management Executive, Vol. 12, No. 4.

Rowe AJ. & Mason RO. (1987), Managing with style: A guide to understanding, assessing,

and improving decision making. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

Russo, JE. & Schoemaker, PJH. (1989), Decision Traps: The Ten Barriers to Brilliant

Decision-Making & How to Overcome Them. New York:

Doubleday.
In a complex decision-making world, you can have every matrix, software program, or
technology tool at your disposal, yet the most powerful element in your decision-making is
you. And the best way to improve your decision-making is to just do it. In fact, making
decisions is a lot like riding a bicycle. You cruise along until you hit a rock and fall down — and
then, like any good rider, you get back up, shake yourself off, and ride on! The key to getting
the results you hope for — or better — is to do what good decision-makers do.

Here are ten secrets to great decision-making:

Describe what you want to accomplish and why. Basically, you want to know how the outcome
will achieve the company’s goals or meet customers’ needs, while engaging employees. If the
idea is half-baked (which is essential to know before you try to communicate the decision to
staff or customers), it will become crystal clear as you try to nail down the specifics.

Know what is motivating your decision. Be clear about the focus: Are you seeking to get rid of
pain or achieve a goal? Remember, focusing on what you don’t want rather than what’s
needed leads to a different result.

Avoid making a quick decision out of desperation. Give yourself enough time to reflect to
ensure that you aren’t selecting a “quick fix” solution instead of taking the time to find a more
lasting solution.

Consider more than one workable alternative — if possible, look at two to three at minimum.
More than one workable alternative frees you from becoming attached to a favorite option
and seeing too narrowly. You gain flexibility since, as new information arises, you can more
easily integrate additional considerations into your thinking while simultaneously widening
the range of possibilities.

In addition, the diversity of alternatives under consideration allows you to consider a wider
range of elements crucial to accomplishing the desired results, without looking for them in a
single solution. You’ll make your decisions faster and with greater confidence.

Keep your options open for as long as possible. When conditions are uncertain and
dynamically changing, fixing on a solution too early increases risk exposure while decreasing
ability to adjust to changing requirements. If you keep options open as long as they are viable,
you’ll gain more flexibility.

Notice your mindset. As a rule, people either want to avoid negative results (fixed mindset), or
they want to pursue positive outcomes (growth mindset). Your social and emotional
environment, plus the situation you’re in influences your outlook.

Trust your intuition. Although it’s fuzzy and intangible and may fail you from time to time, your
intuition handles decisions in high stakes, rapid-fire, dynamically changing conditions in
milliseconds. In fact, it can process volumes of information at speeds that make your intellect
look like it’s on training wheels.

Your intuition also captures what isn‘t being said, which is often more telling than facts and
figures. Knowing when you’ve tapped into your intuition helps you when you handle very
complex decisions. You’ll be less inclined to second guess yourself because you’ll know what
to trust.

Step back to reflect on the results you’re seeing. When unexpected results occur, ask, “How
did this happen?” Unexpected results come in two forms: awesome and awful. If your results
are stellar, you maintain vigilance to sustain continued success. If the results are negative, as in
legal issues, communication breakdowns, or troubles in your business’s cash flow, it’s time to
reflect on and improve your decision-making process. You can’t avert every mistake, but you
can learn from the one’s you’ve made.

When things go from bad to worse, you can always decide to stop doing what you’re doing and
to switch to a different approach. Ask yourself,” What do I need to stop doing, maintain, or
improve?” The answers will help you be more selective about where you’re putting your
valuable time and energy.

Invest in your personal growth. Although often written off as a soft skill, investing in personal
growth is fundamental to effective decision-making, especially in unpredictable circumstances.
It has spin-off benefits for other key personal and professional relationships in your life.

Your ability to regulate your emotions and restore a sense of calm is your most valued asset in
decision-making. In addition, the more you can rigorously illuminate limiting beliefs that
influence your interpretation , the more accurately you’ll be able to assess the situation and
make decisions.

Pay attention to ideas or signals on the fringe of regular thought. Rather than rationalizing
unexpected or abnormal data, look more closely, and allow your thinking to be disrupted.
When you pay attention to irregularities, you find insights and see what isn’t immediately
apparent long before it becomes a crisis or missed opportunity. Insights are the source of
breakthroughs.

Trust in your capacity to expand your perspective, flex your thinking muscles, and broaden
your decision-making know-how. How? By making decisions in differing conditions — the
more, the better!
SUCCESSFUL AND UNSUCCESSFUL DECISION:
What do you see as the main difference between a successful and an unsuccessful decision?
How much does luck versus skill have to do with it? How much time needs to pass to know if a
decision is successful or not? The ability to decide and choose wisely and rightly is often a matter
of how the problem was posed. Though we try to be as logical as possible in taking a decision,
sometimes we end up making illogical choices or choices that in fact were good but ended up
with failure.

So, it is important to understand how people decide things to avoid bad judgments. Decision
making refers to “making choices among alternative courses of action—which may also include
inaction”. In order to make a wide range of decisions, individuals throughout organizations use
the information they gather. These decisions will then change the course of an organization, as
well affect their lives. Making successful decisions is certainly the most important task of a
manager and it is often a very difficult one.

Success may be defined as “the achievement of something desired, planned, or attempted”. In

order a decision to be successful, a company should make sure that they make the best choice
by going through the formal steps of the rational decision-making model. The rational decision-
making model describes “a series of steps that decision makers should consider if their goal is to
maximize the quality of their outcomes”.

This is the main difference between a successful and an unsuccessful decision; by not
considering these decision-making models, a company’s goal can fail just because they do not go
through the necessary steps which are: Identifying the problem, establishing decision criteria,
weigh decision criteria, generate alternatives, evaluate the alternatives, choose the best
alternative, implement the decision, and evaluate the decision (Steps in the Rational Decision-
Making Model).

When it comes to luck and skills and their relation to success, I think there are two extremes:
people who rely only on luck and other that think that everything depends solely on skills. I think
that a middle ground has to be found and followed. For example, a company after making a
certain decision must hope for the best as they already choose to go with that idea and work
hard until they accomplish it. A successful decision has to do with both luck and skill, but also an
illogical dumb idea/decision can lead to successful/beneficial outcome sometimes.
A company’s decision does not need to reach its final objective in order to understand if it will be
successful or not. For example, an ice-cream factory that decided to make two million different
ice-creams in order to sell them to their potential byers does not need to sell all the ice-creams
in order to understand that his decision/goal has been successful, and to understand that his
contribution will lead to profitable income; he only needs to look at the daily or weekly sales,
and see if this number of sales is enough for the two million different ice-creams to be sold
during the expect time.

An organized and systematic decision-making process usually leads to better successful

decisions. Without a well-defined process, you risk making decisions that are based on
insufficient information and analysis. Many variables affect the final impact of your decision.
However, if you establish strong foundations for decision making, generate good alternatives,
evaluate these alternatives rigorously, and then check your decision-making process, you will
improve the quality of your decisions.