Doerr-Fournier-Weidemann 1

FST 10C
3/21/17

8-Bit Fortune

Introduction:

Come on up and spin the wheels of 8-Bit fortune! Every carnival needs new and

innovative ways to make more money. One of the easiest ways for a carnival to make money is

through the games that they have. These games require no skill, and are won through probability.

In order for the games to make money in the long run they have to be in the favor of the carnival,

but they also cannot seem improbable for the player to win. We have been chosen to invent a

new and creative game to help the carnival make as much profit as possible. In order to make a

profitable game our team has to delve into the interesting field of probability, and explore the

concepts of how to construct, interpret, and analyze the probability of winning and losing a

carnival game.

Figure 1. Carnival Spinner

This image shows the spinner after it has been constructed. As shown in the picture the

spinner has a 8-Bit theme. This is shown by the decals on the spinners.

I. Description, Rules & Directions:

 Doerr-Fournier-Weidemann 2
FST 10C
3/21/17

The game that was designed consists of three different spinners. Each of the spinners that

were incorporated in the game have different chance of winning that certain spinner. Each one of

the spinners have 8 segments to it. The outermost spinner has a 75% chance of winning and

continuing on. The second spinner has a 50% of being won and continuing on. The innermost

spinner is the hardest to win, as it only has a 25% of being won. To proceed the next inner

spinner, the player must land on the gold coin.

The game costs $2 per play, but the reward is much larger at $8. Although the big prize is

$8, due to the player paying $2 to play it will only be $6 that they truly gain. To play the game

the player will start by spinning the outermost wheel, which contains 8 sections. Seventy five

percent of this wheel will be a win for the user, and will be marked by an 8-bit gold coin.

However, if the player spins the wheel and it ends up on the 8-bit skull and crossbones then this

will be considered a loss. If the player succeeds then they will continue on the the second (50%)

wheel. If the player wins on this wheel they have the option of dropping out of the game for a

win of $1 or they can spin the third (25%) wheel. If the player decided to move onto the third

spinner for the chance of winning $8 and they do not win then they will not receive any rewards.

If they succeed then they will receive their substantial reward of $6.

II. Theoretical Probability I:

This game will have a sample space of losing the initial price of the game, winning the

final prize, and winning the drop prize. There are multiple ways to lose the initial price of the

game. These ways would be losing on any of the spinners.

Table 1. Loss of Initial Price Probabilities.

Spinner 1 2 3
 Doerr-Fournier-Weidemann 3
FST 10C
3/21/17

$ -2 -2 -2

P($) 1/4 2/4 3/4

The spinners are set up so that they have a 75% chance to win the first spinner, a 50% to

win the second spinner, and a 25% to win the final spinner. This table shows the probability of

losing the initial price if only that spinner is spun. The first spinners probability of losing does

not change because it has no spinners leading up to it.

3/4 ∗ 2/4 = 3/8 ≈ 0.375

Figure 2. Calculating the Probability of Losing Initial Price on Second Spinner.

The probability of losing the initial price on the second spinner is ½, but only if that is the

only spinner being spun. To calculate the probability of losing on the second spinner, the

probability of winning the first must be multiplied by losing the second. This calculates out to a

P(L) = 0.375 chance of losing on the second spinner.

3/4 ∗ 2/4 ∗ 3/4 = 9/32 ≈ 0.28125

Figure 3. Calculating the Probability of Losing Initial Price on Third Spinner.

The probability of losing the initial price on the final spinner is 3/4 , but once again only

if that is the only spinner being spun. The previous probabilities must be calculated into the

probability of losing. This calculates to a P(L) = 0.28125 chance of losing on the final spinner.

1/4 + 3/8 + 9/32 = 29/32 ≈ 0.90625

Figure 4. Calculating the Probability of Losing the Game
 Doerr-Fournier-Weidemann 4
FST 10C
3/21/17

This probability is for losing the game at any point of the game, whether it be the first

spinner, the second spinner, or the final spinner. This probability ends up being P(L) = 0.90625.

3/4 ∗ 2/4 ∗ 1/4 = 3/32 ≈ 0.09375

Figure 5. Calculating the Probability of Winning The Game

The probability of winning the entire game comes out to be P(W) = 0.09375, meaning

there is not a very high chance of winning. From afar, this game may look easy, but from a

mathematician's’ perspective it is easy to tell this game will most likely take your money.

III. Theoretical Probability II:

This game was set up to make money, but how much money will it make? To find this

the expected value of the numbers must be taken. The values found above will be used to find

out how much money will be gained and lost.

Table 2. Expected Value of Player

$ -2 +6

P($) 29/32 3/32

E($) -29/16 ≈ -1.8125 9/16 ≈ 0.5625

This table is from the players perspective. The player can expect to lose $1.25 per game.

This is found by taking the expected values found and adding them together.

Table 3. Expected Value of Owner

$ -6 +2

P($) 3/32 29/32

 Doerr-Fournier-Weidemann 5
FST 10C
3/21/17

E($) -9/16 = -05625 29/16 = 1.8125

This table is from the perspective of a game owner. The owner can expect to win $1.25

per game played. This is found the same way as before, adding the expected values. The amount

the owner can win will only get bigger as more people play games.

IV. Relative Frequencies:

The second simulation consisted of running 50 trials using the actual project. A trial was

one spin per spinner. If they did not make it to the end of the third spinner, they did not win.

Table 4. Real Simulation Values

$ -2 +6

P($) 45/50 5/50

E($) -1.8 .6

Table 4 states the basic values of the game in order to interpolate the expected value of

the game.The player has an estimate of losing $1.2 per game, this means that the game owner

will earn about $1.2 per game.

The second simulation consisted of running five-hundred trials and calculating the overall

relative frequency. Each trial will be performed online by selecting a series of digits that

constitutes a win out of the total amount of possible outcomes and will have to pass three levels

to win.. This ratio will depend on the level of the spinner that the simulation is adhering to. For

example, the amount of digits that constitute a win will be less on the second level than the first

level since the hypothetical probability of winning is lower on the second level than the first. The

first level will contain the simulation values with six wins possible, the second will have four
 Doerr-Fournier-Weidemann 6
FST 10C
3/21/17

wins possible, and the third will have two wins possible. Each level will have eight total

outcomes to match its own probability. If the simulation passes all three level barriers then a win

will be recorded. The following data will be shown in the perspective of the players.

Table 5. Online Simulation Values

$ -2 +6

P($) 440/500 60/500

E($) -1.76 .72

This table gives the results collected from the online simulation. The expected value for

the player was that they would lose $1.04 each game per 500 trials.

Figure 6. Simulation 2.

This set of random numbers showcases the method of collecting data through the use of

the online simulation software http://stattrek.com/statistics/random-number-generator.aspx.

 Doerr-Fournier-Weidemann 7
FST 10C
3/21/17

Figure 7. Simulation 3.

This Java simulation was made in JCreator (see Appendix A). The expected count for the

5000 trials is the player will lose about $1.50 per game. The player could earn $30000 if they

won all 5000 trials with the $6 prize.

V. Summary:

This game is a 3-level spinner game made up of seemingly concentric circles. As the

player goes through the levels, the percentage of gold coins, which in this case are the winning

spaces, decrease making it harder for the player to win. This game, although it may look easy to

win, is in fact very hard to win with a P(W) = 0.09375. You can expect to earn $13000 in 5000

trials, which as a carnival game would be relatively easy to get that many players. This game will

attract players due to how simplistic it looks and its’ addictive nature of how fast and easy it is to

play. The design of this game will attract even more players that enjoy pixelated games. Over the

long run as the game attracts players it will also have a very good profit ratio. This game is

simple to maintain and catches the eye of gamers of all ages. The theoretical expected value for

this project was that the player would lose $1.25. The average of all of the expected values

gathered through simulations is that the player would lose $1.2467 per game they play.

In this project the work flow went as follows, we all had worked on the math and checked

through the paper. Ethan had constructed the program, wrote the summary and typed up the
 Doerr-Fournier-Weidemann 8
FST 10C
3/21/17

theoretical probabilities. Kevin had built the actual game and conducted simulation 2. Joe wrote

the introduction and conducted the trials on the actual spinner.