Step 3a_Task 1.

Collect
and Organize
Information on Climate
Change and Other
Natural Hazard
Session 2
Task 1 Objectives
1.Understand the various future climate scenario/s
by analyzing climate change projections (RCP
4.5 and RCP 8.5)
2.Characterize the natural hazards that may
potentially affect the locality/barangay
3.Understand previous disasters and severely
affected elements
 TEMPLATES USED
Task 1.1 Collect and analyze climate change
information
Task 1.2. Gather hazard maps and characterize
hazards
Task1.3. Analyze previous disasters
Task 1.4. Prepare a barangay level summary hazard
inventory
 Task 1.1Collect and analyze climate change information
Projected Changes in Average Seasonal Temperature in Mid-21st Century (2050: 2036-2065) Relative to 1971-2000
Projected Change
Season Scenario Range Degree Celsius Degree Celsius Information About Patterns of Change
Moderate Lower Bound 1.0 27.1 Projected seasonal mean temperature for DJF
Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) Emission Median 1.2 27.3 indicates an increase ranging from 1.0ºC-1.6º C
Observed Baseline (RCP 4.5) Upper Bound 1.6 27.7
26.1 High Emission Lower Bound 1.2 27.3 Increase from 1.2 oC -1.9 oC
(RCP 8.5) Median 1.6 27.6
Upper Bound 1.9 28.0
Moderate Lower Bound 0.9 29.7 Projected increase in seasonal mean temperature
Mar-Apr-May (MAM) Emission Median 1.2 30.0 for MAM indicates a range of 0.9 ºC-1.7ºC
Observed Baseline (RCP 4.5) Upper Bound 1.7 30.5
28.8 High Emission Lower Bound 1.3 30.0 Increase from 1.3 oC -2.2 oC
(RCP 8.5) Median 1.6 30.1
Upper Bound 2.0 30.5
Moderate Lower Bound 1.0 29.0 Projected increase in temperature for JJA indicate
Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) Emission Median 1.3 29.3 increases in temperature from1.0ºC to 1.8 ºC
Observed Baseline (RCP 4.5) Upper Bound 1.8 29.8
28.0 High Emission Lower Bound 1.3 29.3 Increase from 1.3 oC -2.3 oC
(RCP 8.5) Median 1.5 29.5
Upper Bound 2.3 30.3
Moderate Lower Bound 1.0 28.4 Projected increase in seasonal mean temperature
Sept-Oct-Nov (SON) Emission Median 1.1 28.5 for SON indicate increases in temperature from
Observed Baseline (RCP 4.5) Upper Bound 1.8 29.2 1.0 oC to 1.8 oC
27.4
High Emission Lower Bound 1.3 28.7 Increase from 1.3 oC -2.2 oC
(RCP 8.5) Median 1.5 28.9
Upper Bound 2.2 29.6
Projected Changes in Average Seasonal Temperature in 21st Century (2070-2099) Relative to 1971-2000
Scenario Task 1.1Collect and analyze climate change information
Range Projected Change
Season Degree Degree Information About Patterns of Change
Celcius Celcius
Moderate Lower Bound 1.2 27.3 Projected changes in mean The increase in temperature at the end of the
Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) Emission Median 1.6 27.7 temperature in Metro Manila for DJF 21st century is higher compared in 2050
Observed (RCP 4.5) Upper Bound 2.2 28.3 indicate an increase of 1.2ºC -2.2ºC especially for RCP8.5. The increases in
Baseline Lower Bound 2.1 28.2 seasonal mean temperature in the 21st century
High Emission
26.1 Median 2.9 29.0 2.1ºC to 3.5ºC is quite high
(RCP 8.5)
Upper Bound 3.5 29.2
Moderate Lower Bound 1.3 30.1 Projected changes in mean The increase in temperature at the end of the
Mar-Apr-May Emission Median 1.6 30.2 temperature in Metro Manila for MAM 21st century is higher compared in 2050
(MAM) (RCP 4.5) Upper Bound 2.4 31.2 indicate an increase of 1.3ºC -2.4ºC especially for RCP8.5
Observed Baseline Lower Bound 2.5 31.3
High Emission
28.8 Median 3.1 31.9 2.5ºC to 3.8ºC
(RCP 8.5)
Upper Bound 3.8 32.6
Moderate Lower Bound 1.4 29.4 Projected changes in mean The increase in temperature at the end of the
Emission Median 1.6 29.6 temperature in Metro Manila for JJA 21st century is highest in SON for RCP 8.5.
Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA)
(RCP 4.5) Upper Bound 2.4 30.4 indicate an increase of 1.4 ºC -2.4 ºC
Observed Baseline
Lower Bound 2.6 36.6
28.0 High Emission
Median 2.9 31.1 2.6 ºC to 3.9 ºC
(RCP 8.5)
Upper Bound 3.1 31.9
Sept-Oct-Nov (SON) Moderate Lower Bound 1.3 28.6 Projected changes in mean The increase in temperature at the end of the
Observed Baseline Emission Median 1.5 28.9 temperature in Metro Manila for SON 21st century is highest in SON for RCP 8.5.
27.4 (RCP 4.5) Upper Bound 2.4 29.8 indicate an increase of 1.3ºC -2.4 ºC
High Emission Lower Bound 2.6 30 .0 2.6 ºC to 4.0 ºC
(RCP 8.5) Median 3.0 30.4
 Projected Change
Season Scenario
Task
Range
1.1Collect
Percent and
Rainfall
analyze
Seasonal
Amount Rainfall Amount
climate
Projectedchange information
changes in rainfall
Potential Impacts and/or potential
opportunities
Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) Moderate Lower Bound -0.1 -0.2 107.3 Projected changes in rainfall for the month of Beneficial for the water and agriculture
Emission Median 17.1 19.0 126.5 DJF indicate increases in rainfall from 46.5% to (urban garden) and trees since the
Observed Baseline Upper Bound 46.5 50.0 157.5
(RCP 4.5) 53.4% in the mid-21st century for the wettest rainfall received during the season is
107.5mm
High Lower Bound 1.2 27.3 110.4 possible scenario. There is no significant minimal.
Emission Median 1.6 27.6 137.4 reduction in projected rainfall for the month of
Upper Bound 1.9 28.0 164.9
(RCP 8.5) DJF.
Mar-Apr-May Moderate Lower Bound 0.7 1.3 199.8 Projected seasonal rainfall for March-April- This increase in rainfall falls within the
(MAM) Emission Median 6.9 13.7 212.2 May indicates increases in the wettest possible natural variability and maybe
Upper Bound 27.7 55.1 253.6
(RCP 4.5) scenario from 19.8% to 27.7%. beneficial for the water and resources
Observed Baseline
High Lower Bound 6.0 -12.0 186.5 sector since this is dry season where
198.5mm
Emission Median 4.8 9.6 208.1 rainfall especially during the months of
Upper Bound 19.8 39.4 237.9
(RCP 8.5) March and April are minimal.
Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) Moderate Lower Bound -21.3 -249.4 920.8 Projected seasonal rainfall for the wettest Adaptation strategies should be in
Emission Median -10.1 -118.6 1051.6 possible scenario indicates increases within the place since JJA is the typhoon season
Observed Baseline Upper Bound 6.0 69.8 1240.0
(RCP 4.5) natural variability (6 % to 11.8%). The and associated extreme events like
1170.0mm
High Lower Bound -17.0 -199.3 970.9 projected reduction in rainfall from 17% to flooding is still possible to occur.
Emission Median -6.1 -71.7 1098.5 21% is not significant considering this is the
Upper Bound 118 137.8 1308.0
(RCP 8.5) peak of the southwest monsoon season where
Metro Manila receives substantial amount of
rainfall.
Sept-Oct-Nov Moderate Lower Bound -9.8 -74.3 684.4 Projected seasonal rainfall for the wettest Adaptation strategies should also be in
(SON) Emission Median -6.0 -45.2 713.5 possible scenario indicates increases within the place since September-October-
(RCP 4.5) Upper Bound 7.7 58.5 817.2 natural variability (7 % to 19.9%). The November (SON) is characterized by
Observed Baseline
758.7
High Lower Bound -7.8 -59.0 699.7 projected reduction in rainfall from 7.8% to crossing tropical cyclones which could
Emission Median 3.9 29.6 788.3 9.8% is not significant and within the natural bring extreme rainfall and other
Projected Changes in Average Seasonal Rainfall in 21st Century (2070-2099) Relative to 1971-2000

Projected Change
Season Scenario Range Rainfall Seasonal Potential Impacts and/or
Percent Projected changes in rainfall
Amount Rainfall Amount Opportunities
Moderate Lower Bound -8.0 -8.6 98.9 The projections of rainfall show differences by Health Sector
Emission Median 15.1 16.2 123.7 season across Metro Manila between the lowest and - Water-borne diseases
Dec-Jan-Feb 149.7 160.9 268.4
(RCP 4.5) Upper Bound wettest percentile during the 21st century. There is - Human settlements and –
(DJF)
significant projected increase in seasonal rainfall by infrastructures
Observed
High Lower Bound -34.8 -37.4 70.1 as much as 105% to 149% for DJF for the wettest
Baseline
Emission Median 15.8 16.9 124.4 events. There is significant reduction in rainfall for Classrooms
107.5mm 105.0 112.9 220.4
(RCP 8.5) Upper Bound the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) by as much as Evacuation centers
34% . Hospitals
Moderate Lower Bound -14.2 -28.2 170.3 The projected increase in rainfall indicates increases
Mar-Apr-May
Emission Median -1.6 -3.1 195.4 by 14.1% to 21.6%. The increases and decreases in
(MAM) 14.1 28.1 226.6
(RCP 4.5) Upper Bound rainfall is within the natural variability.
Observed
High Lower Bound -6.0 -12.0 186.5
Baseline
Emission Median -1.7 -3.4 195.1
198.5mm 21.6 43.0 241.5
(RCP 8.5) Upper Bound
Moderate Lower Bound -20.6 -241.3 928.9
Jun-Jul-Aug The projections of rainfall for JJA for possible driest
Emission Median -19.1 -223.5 946.7 The source of water supply
(JJA) 3.9 45.5 1215.7
event indicate decreases in rainfall by as much as
(RCP 4.5) Upper Bound for Metro Manila is the
Observed 20% to 30%. The season is the peak of the
High Lower Bound -30.3 -354.7 815.5 Angat dam and the last
Baseline southwest monsoon season where the country
Emission Median -24.3 -284.9 885.3 quarter of the month is
1170.0mm 16.8 196.7 1366.9
receives substantial amount of rainfall.
(RCP 8.5) Upper Bound critical in their operations
Sept-Oct-Nov Moderate Lower Bound -6.7 -50.7 708.0 reductions in rainfall
(SON) Emission Median -3.3 -24.7 734.0 during the season might
10.1 76.6 835.3
 Task 1.2 Gather hazard maps and characterize hazards
(Not just an inventory of maps, scale and time; it also includes hazard description such as intensity and magnitude)

SAMPLE Map Information SAMPLE Hazard Description

Hazard Format/date/Reference Frequency
Source Scale Susceptibility Magnitude Speed of Onset Areas Covered
system and/or Duration
A B C D E F G H I
Flood Susceptibility DENR-MGB 1:100,000February 2008 / JPEG File High Slow Every 1-3 years 43 barangays
DENR-MGB 1:100,000 February 2008 / JPEG File High
Rain Induced
Landslide Was the estimated strength of
DOST-PHILVOCS flood hazard, for example,
Ground Rupture Can be the
expressed in water depth or
DOST-PHILVOCS source for
Liquefaction water flow velocity, and/or Likelihood of
Earthquake Induced DOST-PHILVOCS duration? Storm surge can be Occurrence
Landslide expressed in wave heights,
Tsunami DOST-PHILVOCS frequency, speed of onset, etc.
Volcanic Hazard DOST-PHILVOCS
DENR-MGB 1:100,000February 2008 Medium Slow Seldom 13 barangays
Flash Flood / JPEG File
1:100,000February 2008 Medium Fast Seldom 5 barangays
Tornado / JPEG File
DENR-MGB 1:100,000Februray 2008 Medium Medium Seldom 29 barangays
Soil Erosion / JPEG File
Others
Task 1.3 Analysis of Records of Previous Disasters
Records of Previous Disasters, Municipality of__________, Province of ______________
Number of
No. of Houses
Number of Casualties Affected Damage to Properties (Php)
Hazard Events Damaged
Persons
and Affected Source of
Description, Barangays Private Information
Date Familie /
Dead Injured Missing Persons Totally Partially Infra Agri Insti Total
s Commer
cial
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O
 Task 1.4 Summary of Hazard Matrix Per Barangay
Table 4. Hazard Susceptibility Inventory Matrix, Municipality of _______, Province of ________
BY
ECOSYSTEM
Earthquake
Rain-Induced Ground Ground Volcanic Total No. of
Barangay Flood Storm Surge Drought induced Tsunami Erosion HAZARDS
Landslide shaking Rupture Eruption
landslide
A B C D E G I J K L M N
Coastal
A x x x
b
d
Agriculture
A
e
f
g
h
i
Upland
j
k
l
Urban
 Step 3a. Task 1. Templates and Outputs
Process/Templates Outputs Remarks for Enhanced Process
used
Task 1.1 Collect and Local Climate Change RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 PAGASA Regional representative
analyze climate Projections and interpretations Projected change in seasonal expected to handle the topic and
change information mean temperature in 2050 explain the patterns of change, other
and 2100 important elements of new projections
Task 1.2. Gather Tabular compilation of sources, Maps are intuitive enough to Address issues of different scales and
hazard maps and scale, date/coverage, serve their purpose-display period of coverage
characterize hazards frequency, speed of onset, the results of data processed
wave heights, duration, areas to expose essential Address issues of hazards as reflected
affected characteristics about the in maps (e.g. RIL in generally flat lands)
geographic features,
attributes, and phenomena
they represent
Task1.3. Analyze Tabular compilation of Data validated FGDs and KIIs conducted to generate
previous disasters historical disaster damage/loss information that could support
data
Task 1.4. Prepare a Summary: barangay level Barangays are ranked to Rank the barangays and match them
barangay level hazard inventory matrix (by know their level of exposure against Barangay attributes- exposed
Thank you!
Priscella Mejillano, En.P.
pbmejillano@gmail.com
pbmejillano@yahoo.com
0917-117-3930; 0920-982-3204